• Cashless payments are experiencing promising growth in Trinidad & Tobago, fuelled by the increasing adoption of digital technologies. With this surge towards digital, cybercriminals are becoming increasingly sophisticated and capitalising on vulnerabilities.
• While this is a global tendency, developing countries like Trinidad & Tobago are also facing a significant rise in phishing schemes, attacks targeting e-commerce, 'free gift' scams and ransomware, among others.
• Despite this challenge and in anticipation of a growing and evolving threat, Trinidad & Tobago has been making tremendous strides in securing the payments ecosystem.
• Recent milestones include the migration of the mag strip debit cards to a Visa Debit Card secured with EMV (Europay, Mastercard, and Visa) contactless technology; merchants' rapid transition to 3DS 2.0 secure (an advanced e-commerce authentication protocol pioneered by Visa); and local issuers working closely with Visa Advanced Authorization – a solution that analyses up to 500 unique risk factors to detect fraud faster, and other AI-enabled transactional scoring tools.
• However, more can be done to protect the integrity of payments, while also establishing the infrastructure to drive more innovation. This includes the implementation of tokens, a security technology that replaces sensitive account information with a unique digital identifier.
• In addition, merchants should consider incorporating a transactional risk scoring tool, like CyberSource's Decision Manager, which leverages AI technology to help merchants distinguish between fraudulent and legitimate payment transactions.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• The Dominican Republic’s Central Bank (BCRD) reported a 2.4% year-on-year expansion in the economy for 2023, surpassing initial projections and exceeding the Latin American average growth estimated at 2.2% by the World Bank.
• The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE), a key indicator of robust economic performance, recorded a 4.7% year-on-year expansion in December 2023, marking the highest monthly rate of the year.
• Inflation, on the other hand, showed a downward trend, ending 2023 with an annual rate of 3.57%, the lowest in the last five years. This achievement positions the Dominican Republic below the central bank target range of 4.0% ± 1.0% set in the monetary program and could mean further monetary policy loosening in 2024.
• Notably, BCRD is expected to reduce its monetary policy rate by another 200 basis points to 5.00% by end-2024 through a measured and cautious rate loosening cycle, especially given uncertainty regarding the scope and timing of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle. 
• The tourism sector played a pivotal role in economic growth, with tourism income reaching US$9,828.9Mn, a 16.9% year-on-year increase from 2022. Remittances received in 2023 amounted to US$10.16Bn, growing by 3.1% compared to the previous year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also saw a significant increase, reaching US$4.38Bn in 2023, a 9.2% rise from the previous year. Sectors such as tourism, energy, and real estate stood out in this FDI increase. 
• These optimistic figures position the Dominican economy for favourable performance in 2024, with growth projections of 5%, one of the highest in Latin America. The expectation is that monetary stimulus, public investment, and continued foreign direct investment will further boost economic activity while maintaining inflation within established parameters.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Private payroll growth declined sharply in January, a possible sign that the U.S. labour market is heading for a slowdown this year, ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 107,000 workers in the first month of 2024, off from the downwardly revised 158,000 in December and below the Dow Jones estimate for 150,000, according to the payrolls processing firm.
• Only one sector — information services (-9,000) — reported a decline, but hiring was slow across virtually all sectors. Leisure and hospitality posted the biggest increase, with an additional 28,000 workers, while trade, transportation, and utilities added 23,000, and construction rose by 22,000. Services-providing companies were responsible for 77,000 jobs, with goods producers adding the rest.
• The release comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show growth of 185,000, against the 216,000 increase in December.
• While the ADP data can provide a barometer for private sector hiring, the two reports often differ, with ADP often undershooting the Labor Department’s numbers. On wage gains, ADP reported a 5.2% annual rise, which has exceeded the government’s measure of average hourly earnings.
• “Wages adjusted for inflation have improved over the past six months, and the economy looks like it’s headed toward a soft landing in the U.S. and globally,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. Midsize establishments, with between 50 and 499 employees, led job creation, adding 61,000. Small businesses added just 25,000.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Brent crude market structure and some physical markets in Europe and Africa reflect tighter supply, resulting partly from concern about shipping delays due to vessels avoiding the Red Sea, according to traders, LSEG data, and analysts.
• Disruptions, alongside outages and heightened Chinese demand, amplify competition for crude supply not transiting the Suez Canal. European markets are notably affected, as disruptions prompt diversions from the Red Sea following airstrikes in Yemen by the United States and Britain.
• Brent crude futures exhibit heightened bullishness, with the first-month contract premium over the six-month contract reaching $2.15 a barrel. European refiners face the most significant impact on the physical front, with a notable decrease in Middle Eastern crude heading to Europe.

(Source: The Daily Star)

• The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported that the unemployment rate in October 2023 was 4.2%, 2.9 percentage points lower than in October 2021.
• STATIN noted that it compared the October 2023 Labour Force Survey findings with the corresponding 2021 results. This is because no Labour Force Survey was conducted in October 2022 due to the implementation of the 2022 Population & Housing Census.
• The unemployment rate for October 2023 was also 0.3 percentage points lower than April 2023 and 0.4 percentage points lower than July 2023. The unemployment rate for males was 3.1%, down from 5.4% in October 2021 and 5.4% for females, down from 9.0% in the comparable quarter of 2021.
• In October 2023, there were 724,600 people outside the labour force, a 5.5% decrease from 766,900 in October 2021. In April, there were 1,100 fewer people out of work, but in July 2023, there were 1,800 more. There were 291,700 males and 432,900 females out of the labour force. In the current quarter, compared to October 2021, there were 22,100 (7.0%) fewer males and 20,200 (4.5%) fewer females working outside the labour force.
• The largest increase in employment by occupation group was in ‘Service Workers and Shop and Market Sales Workers’ with 308,400 persons employed in October 2023. This represents an 11.2% increase when compared to October 2021. Within this occupation group, male employment increased by 13,500 (14.0%) and female employment by 17,500 (9.7%).
• In October 2023, there were 152,600 persons working in ‘Real Estate and Other Business Services’ and 133,200 persons in ‘Construction,’ an increase of 16.8% and 16.9%, respectively. These represent the largest increases by industry group.
• While lower unemployment bodes well for economic growth and job creation, it could also put upward pressure on wages and keep inflation elevated.

(Source: STATIN)

• On the heels of the most successful participation at FITUR (International Tourism Trade Fair) in Madrid, Minister of Tourism Hon Edmund Bartlett has announced the largest Spanish investment of over US$2Bn.The move will create approximately 19,000 new jobs in construction and tourism services.
• Minister Bartlett and his team concluded negotiations with three major Spanish hoteliers who are now in the advanced stages of development approval in Jamaica for groundbreaking events this year.
• The projects will see luxury rooms in Lucea, Hanover by Grand Palladium; housing units for tourism workers; a Convention Centre; entertainment facilities; and golf courses, among other amenities.
• Bahia Principe near Runaway, Bay St Ann, led by Spain's Pinero family, will have two new luxury hotels and cosmopolitan villas, as well as a residential neighbourhood, fishermen village, PGA golf course, private schools and entertainment, dozens of pools, and walking trails. This development is also expected to employ 12,500 workers. Luxury brand Secrets Resorts will construct several hundred rooms in Richmond St Ann, employing 2000 persons.
• Minister Bartlett met with all the current investors from Spain at the Grand Melia Palacio De Los DUQUES in Madrid, Spain, where these investment projects were presented and confirmed. As the Spanish investors continue to grow their businesses on the island, it will increase the economic benefits for the communities and at the national level.

(Source: JIS News)

• The Central Bank of Bahamas predicts economic growth to be in the low 2.0% range, still moderately above the estimate of the economy’s medium-term potential (below 2.0% per annum).
•  In 2023, the Bahamian economy was estimated to have grown in the 4.0% range, a levelling off from the significant post-pandemic recovery of around 14.0% in 2022. This period captured a robust boost in the cruise sector’s contribution, complete occupancy recovery in the stopover sector, and healthy appreciation in average pricing for stopover accommodations among hotels and vacation rental properties.
• In 2024, however, growth is expected to be within the low 2.0% range, still moderately above the estimate of the economy’s medium-term potential. Further, earlier this month, the World Bank revised its 2024 growth projection for The Bahamas down from 2.0% to 1.8%.
• According to Rolle, the Central Bank expects that growth in 2024 and beyond will settle further to more closely resemble The Bahamas’ longer-term potential. However, a period of acceleration could occur after hotel capacity is replenished in New Providence.
• Central Bank Governor John Rolle stated that although the economy has a positive outlook for 2024, enabling more employment creation and continued reduction in the fiscal deficit, downside risks persist from potential headwinds to tourism, particularly if international central banks prolong their fight against inflation. Additionally, travel demand and import inflation remain vulnerable to the harmful effects of conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

(Source: Eyewitness News)

• A reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil and gas sectors would hurt the OPEC country's ability to collect cash from its oil exports, crimp new energy investments, and raise the risks of domestic fuel scarcity, analysts and executives said.
• This week, Washington ordered a wind-down of all business transactions between U.S. entities and Venezuela's state miner Minerven. In addition, Washington noted it would unwind in April, easing of energy sanctions if President Nicolas Maduro's administration does not stick to an agreement signed last year to accept conditions for a fair presidential election.
• The U.S. is increasing its pressure since the South American country's top court upheld a ban blocking the leading opposition hopeful, Maria Corina Machado, from the election. The U.S., which first imposed oil sanctions on Venezuela in 2019, granted sanctions relief for the OPEC member country in October in recognition of the election deal.
• As a result of easing sanctions, Venezuela was expected to grow its total oil revenue to as much as $20Bn this year from some $12Bn in 2023, according to Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica. However, larger exports of crude and petrochemicals to cash-paying customers in countries from the U.S. to India were behind its forecast.
• "Price discounts on Venezuela's crude had reduced a lot, and cashing sales proceeds became easier for state company PDVSA," said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute. "If the license is withdrawn in April, the proceeds will be reduced again and the scenarios of strong economic growth and a competitive election will fade," he added.
• Risks of a new bout of acute fuel scarcity also are poised to increase, experts said. Even if Washington continues authorizations for debt repayment deals to Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Maurel & Prom to avoid a total break with Venezuela, that might not provide sustainable investment to expand output.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Monetary Fund edged its forecast for global economic growth higher, upgrading the outlook for both the United States and China - the world's two largest economies - and cited faster-than-expected easing of inflation. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the global lender's updated World Economic Outlook showed that a "soft landing" was in sight. Still, overall growth and global trade remained lower than the historical average.
• The IMF said the improved outlook was supported by stronger private and public spending despite tight monetary conditions, increased labour force participation, mended supply chains, and cheaper energy and commodity prices. The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2024, up two-tenths of a percentage point from its October forecast, and retained a 3.2% forecast for 2025. However, this is below the 2000-2019 historical average of 3.8%.
• Likewise, global trade growth forecasts of 3.3% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, well below the historical average of 4.9%, weighed down by 3,000 trade restrictions imposed in 2023. The IMF also stuck with its October forecast for headline inflation of 5.8% for 2024 but lowered the 2025 forecast to 4.4% from 4.6% in October. Excluding Argentina, which has seen inflation spike, global headline inflation would be lower, Gourinchas said.
• Advanced economies should see average inflation of 2.6%, down four-tenths of a percentage point from the October forecast, with inflation set to reach central bank targets of 2% in 2025. By contrast, inflation would average 8.1% in emerging markets and developing economies in 2024 before easing to 6% in 2025.
• China's GDP is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2024, an upward revision of four-tenths of a percentage point from October and 4.1% in 2025. Gourinchas said the boost reflected significant fiscal support from the authorities and a less-severe-than-expected slowdown stemming from the property sector.
• Gourinchas said the global outlook reflected more balanced upside and downside risks, with the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East offset by the prospect that lower fuel prices could help inflation fall faster than expected.

(Source: Reuters)

• The euro zone's economy stagnated last year, underperforming the rest of the world as former powerhouse Germany struggled with an industrial malaise that has no end in sight, data showed on Tuesday.
• The 20 countries that share the euro barely avoided a recession in the final quarter of last year even as the global economy expanded and the euro zone's biggest trading partner, the United States, chalked up impressively brisk growth.
• The euro area's underperformance was mostly due to weakness in Germany, which has seen its business model relying on cheap energy from Russia and intense two-way trade with China upended by geopolitical events.
• Europe's largest economy shrank by 0.3% in the last three months of 2023 while the bloc as a whole saw steady output, helped by expansions in Spain and Italy, Eurostat' preliminary flash estimates showed. That marked the sixth consecutive quarter of no or little growth.
• Economists expect more of the same in the coming months before a timid recovery in the summer, which should lead to another year of meagre growth for the euro area.
• "Stronger household consumption as the effects of the shock to energy prices subside and inflation falls, supporting real income growth, is expected to drive the recovery," the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday in its World Economic Outlook. Still, it downgraded its euro area economic growth forecast to 0.9% this year and 1.7% in 2025.

 (Source: Reuters)