• Initial applications for US unemployment capped 2024 at an eight-month low, reflecting the relatively muted levels of job cuts in a labour market that has remained surprisingly resilient.

• New claims fell by 9,000 to 211,000 in the week ended December 28, 2024, lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Meanwhile continuing applications, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, also fell to a three-month low of 1.84 million in the week ended December 21, 2024, according to Labor Department data released Thursday, January 2, 2025.

• The current levels for initial claims are subdued, in line with their pre-pandemic levels, and consistent with a job market where companies are generally holding onto their workers.

• The report added to a recent raft of upbeat economic data, including consumer spending, in reinforcing the Federal Reserve's projections for fewer interest rate cuts this year. Labour market resilience is keeping the economic expansion on track.

• The US labour market is ending the year in what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described last month as a “solid shape.” A spike in the unemployment rate over the summer had raised alarms, prompting policymakers to cut interest rates by a half-percentage point in September to help support employment. 

• More recent data have pointed to a labour market that is moderating but remains broadly solid. It is cooling, but not in a way that would raise concerns, Powell said at a press briefing in mid-December following Fed policymakers’ decision to lower rates for the third time in three months.

(Source: Reuters & BNN Bloomberg)

• Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers have followed market leaders Tesla and BYD in extending buying incentives to the start of 2025, as a price war  in the world's largest auto market continues for a third year. 

• The incentives are intended to encourage purchases of Chinese vehicles before the government subsidy schemes for the new year start. More than 5.2 million cars sold as of mid-December had benefited from Chinese government subsidies. 

• China has signalled an extension of consumer goods trade-ins in 2025, but specifics for the policy implementation nationwide remain unclear. Nanjing, the capital city of eastern China's Jiangsu province noted that it would continue to provide subsidies of up to 4,000 yuan per car purchase this year. 

• United States EV champion BYD, which could have outsold Ford, and Honda, globally in 2024, has been offering discounts of up to 11.5% on two models - one hybrid and one EV - since December. While, Tesla, which sparked the price war last year, has extended a 10,000 yuan discount on outstanding loans for its best-selling Model Y in China until the end of this month. 

• Sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids, known collectively as new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China, surpassed 10 million units last year, thanks to government-subsidised trade-ins of up to 20,000 yuan apiece for NEVs. Nonetheless, autos-related retail sales contracted by 0.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months, versus a 3.5% increase in China's total retail sales, official data showed, pointing to the impact of price cuts.

(Source: Reuters) 

• Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) revealed that real value added (RVA) for the Jamaican economy contracted by 3.5% in the third quarter of 2024 (Q3 2024) compared to Q3 2023. The 3.5% contraction was due to declines in the Services and Goods Producing Industries of 2.2% and 7.2%, respectively, and was deeper than the 2.8% dip estimated by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).
• Hurricane Beryl’s July 2024 landfall was a major reason for the Q3 2024 economic contraction, especially for goods-producing industries. Most notably, the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry was affected by heavy rains and wind, which damaged mature crops, hindered harvesting, and delayed planting. The Mining & Quarrying industry was also affected by significant damage to one of the major alumina-producing plants.
• Beryl also negatively impacted the performance of both the Electricity and Water Supply and Other Services industries. Damage to the island’s energy infrastructure delayed power restoration across several parishes and reduced electricity and water consumption.
• As a result, RVA declined in all the Goods Producing Industries. Agriculture, Forestry, & Fishing fell by 12.5%, Mining & Quarrying (17.4%), Manufacturing (4.0%), and Construction (3.3%).
• Furthermore, the RVA for most service industries contracted in Q3 2024. ‘Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repairs, Installation of Machinery & Equipment’ (-3.0%), Hotels & Restaurants (-6.2%), ‘Real Estate, Renting, & Business Activities’ (-3.2%), Producers of Government Services (-0.5%) and Other Services (-6.5%) all contracted. However, Finance & Insurance Services (+0.8%) and ‘Transport, Storage & Communication increased’ by (+2.5%).
• Relative to Q2 2024, the economy contracted by 1.8%, reflecting declines in both the Goods-Producing (4.5%) and Services (0.8%) Industries.
• Following the Q3 contraction, Jamaica’s economic outlook for Q4 2024 is negative due to the lingering effects of Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Rafael, heavy rainfall and the U.S. State Department’s Level 3 Travel Advisory. Considering these after-effects, the PIOJ expects economic growth measured by Real GDP to fall within the range of -1.5% to 0.0%. If Jamaica’s economy contracted for a second consecutive time in Q4 2024, it would meet the technical definition of a recession.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) announced that it has decided to immediately suspend trading in the shares of MFS Capital Partners Limited (MFS). JSE’s decision is in keeping with its rules^[1] that state that “A Junior Market company shall submit its audited financial statements… within 90 days of the end of the reporting year” and “… its financial statements … within 45 days of the end of the reporting quarter”.
• MFS Capital Partners Limited (MFS) failed to submit its audited financial statements for the year ended June 30, 2024, to the JSE. The Company’s 2024 audited financial statements was due on September 28, 2024, and is ninety-three (93) days overdue as at December 30, 2024.
• MFS also failed to submit its 1st Quarter Unaudited Financial Statements for the period ended September 30, 2024, which was due on November 14, 2024. As of December 30, 2024, the 1st Quarter Report is forty-six (46) days overdue.
• This suspension follows at least five prior suspensions issued earlier in the year, underscoring the JSE's ongoing efforts to uphold and enforce its regulatory framework.

(Source: JIS)

 ^[1] Junior Market Rule Appendix 2, Part 4 (2) (e) – Audited Annual Financial Statements and JSE Junior Market Rule Appendix 2, Part 4 (1) (e) Quarterly Financial Statements.

• The Dominican Republic has made significant strides in its reforestation efforts, marking a substantial increase in forested areas over the past decade. According to the 2024 Environmental Statistics Yearbook released by the National Office of Statistics (ONE), the country has expanded its reforested land by a remarkable 829%, from 14,126 hectares in 2013 to an impressive 131,338 hectares in 2023.
• The year 2023 witnessed the highest level of reforestation, surpassing previous records set in 2019 and 2013. However, the report also highlights fluctuations in reforestation rates, with declines observed in 2021 and 2022 primarily due to limited availability of imported seeds and prolonged droughts.
• To accelerate these efforts, the Dominican government launched the National Reforestation and Ecosystem Restoration Plan in June 2023. This ambitious initiative aimed to plant 20 million seedlings across 320,000 hectares within two years, to restore degraded forest ecosystems. To date, the plan has achieved a commendable 82% of its target.
• Looking ahead, the government is committed to expanding reforestation efforts even further. José Elías González, Vice Minister of Forest Resources, announced plans for a second phase of the reforestation program, aiming to cover an additional 5,000 square kilometres of the country. While this ambitious goal presents significant challenges, including securing adequate funding, the government is determined to press forward.
• The Dominican Republic’s reforestation efforts not only contribute to environmental conservation but also offer numerous socioeconomic benefits. By protecting watersheds, reducing soil erosion, and enhancing biodiversity, these initiatives support sustainable development and improve the livelihoods of local communities.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• When Beryl lashed Barbados, the island's fishing fleet was devastated in a matter of hours. About 75.0% of the active fleet was damaged, with 88 boats destroyed. Six months after the storm, there are signs of calmer waters.
• However, Barbadians are acutely aware that climate change means more active and powerful Atlantic hurricane seasons - and it may be just another year or two before the fishing industry is struck again. Beryl, for example, was the earliest-forming Category 5 storm on record.
• Few understand the extent of the problem better than the island's Chief Fisheries Officer, Dr Shelly Ann Cox. "Our captains have been reporting that sea conditions have changed," she explains. "Higher swells, sea surface temperatures are much warmer and they're having difficulty getting flying fish now at the beginning of our pelagic season."
• The effects are also being felt in the tourism industry, he says, with hotels and restaurants struggling to find enough fish to meet demand each month. For Dr Shelly Ann Cox, public education is key, and she says the message is getting through.
• For the island's young people, their very futures are at stake. Rising sea levels now pose an existential threat to the small islands of the Caribbean. It is a point on which the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, has become a global advocate for change. She urged greater action over an impending climate catastrophe in her speech at COP29 and called for economic compensation from the world's industrialised nations.

(Source: BBC News)

• China’s factory activity expanded at a slower pace in December, official data showed on Tuesday, despite recent stimulus measures and in the face of increasing trade risks.
• The Purchasing Managers’ Index, based on a survey of factory managers, slipped to 50.1 in December from 50.3 the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.
• It was the third straight monthly reading above 50, a level that indicates an expansion of manufacturing activity. The slowdown in factory activity was due to a “decline in the output component,” according to a note by Capital Economics’ Gabriel Ng.
• Overall, new orders rose to an eight-month high, while the export order index rose to the highest level in four months, likely helped by U.S. importers rushing to beat higher tariffs that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump may impose on Chinese goods, Ng said.
• Trump has pledged to impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, raising trade risks for China, the world’s largest exporter of goods. China is already grappling with a lagging economy, weighed down by reduced consumption and a real estate crisis.
• Last week, the World Bank raised forecasts for China’s economic growth to 4.9% but warned that reduced confidence among households and businesses, an aging population, low consumption, and high debt will continue to weigh on China’s future growth.

(Source: AP News)

• Ukraine has made good on its promise to halt the transport of Russian gas to Europe through its territory after a key deal with Moscow expired on Wednesday. Ukraine’s refusal to renew the transit deal was an expected but symbolic move after nearly three years of its full-scale war with Russia and comes after Europe has already drastically cut Moscow’s share of its gas imports. Ukraine’s energy ministry said it ended the deal “in the interests of national security.”
• However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the move “one of Moscow’s greatest defeats. He accused Moscow of “turning energy into a weapon and engaging in cynical energy blackmail against its partners but expressed hope that the United States would increase its supply of gas to Europe.
• Last year, Kremlin-owned gas giant Gazprom, which signed the transit deal with Ukraine’s Naftogaz in 2019, recorded a $6.9Bn loss, its first in more than 20 years, due to diminished sales to Europe. Ukraine now faces the loss of some $800Mn a year in transit fees from Russia, while Gazprom will lose close to $5 billion in gas sales.
• Henning Gloystein, head of Energy, Climate & Resources at Eurasia Group, said the deal’s end came as “no surprise” but expects it to trigger a jump in spot gas prices when markets reopen on Thursday. However, a major price spike as seen during the previous Russian supply cuts is unlikely as EU importers have long prepared for this scenario. Further, most of Europe has had a mild start to winter.
• Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was the European Union’s biggest supplier of natural gas. The bloc has whittled Russia’s share of its pipeline gas imports down from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023, according to the European Council.
• To fill the gap, Europe has imported vast quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – a chilled, liquid form of natural gas that can be transported via sea tankers – from the United States and other countries, as well as pipeline gas from Norway. The EU has also ramped up imports of Russian LNG to help heat its homes and power its factories but faces a self-imposed deadline of 2027 and plans to break its dependence on all Russian fossil fuels.

(Source: CNN Business)

• Jamaica is looking to engage with major global airlines to increase airlift to the island according to Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett. Among the airlines being engaged are Emirates and Saudi Airlines.
• The move is aimed at expanding Jamaica’s reach into new markets. It provides the country with an opportunity to negotiate with the major global airlines, as it represents the next significant frontier for local tourism.
• Minister Bartlett, who was addressing the recent Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) appreciation breakfast for staff at the Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA) in Kingston, said emphasis is also being placed on boosting regional connectivity pointing to the increasing number of carriers operating within the region, including Bahamasair, Caribbean Airways and Cayman Airways.
• Turning to the winter tourist season, which started on December 15, Minister Bartlett said that the preliminary figures indicate that “this is going to be the best winter season on record.” He noted that the destination has secured 178,000 new seats this winter, representing an increase from every major gateway coming to Jamaica.
• This surge is supported by significant growth from key markets such as the United States – 74,000 additional seats, Canada – 78,000 additional seats (a 35 per cent increase over last season), United Kingdom – 338 additional seats, and the Caribbean – more than 1,000 additional seats.
• Jamaica is currently witnessing a boom in high-end tourism, with 18 private jets arriving in Montego Bay on just one day last week, as reported by Delano Seiveright, Senior Advisor and Strategist in the Ministry of Tourism.

(Sources: JIS & Caribbean National Weekly)

• In a move aimed at strengthening international partnerships, the Governments of Jamaica and the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire have formally established diplomatic relations during a signing ceremony in New York recently.
• The Joint Communiqué establishing diplomatic relations was signed on December 16, at the Permanent Mission of Côte d’Ivoire to the United Nations (UN) by Ambassador Brian Wallace, Permanent Representative of Jamaica to the UN, and Ambassador Tiémoko Moriko, Permanent Representative of Côte d’Ivoire to the UN.
• Both Jamaica and Côte d’Ivoire will seek to leverage this partnership to promote economic diplomacy, through trade and investment, tourism, cultural exchange, as well as other mutually beneficial areas to advance South-South cooperation.
• Earlier this year, Senator the Honourable Kamina Johnson Smith, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, signed a similar Communiqué in New York, alongside her Tunisian counterpart. His Excellency Mohamed Ali Nafti, establishing diplomatic relations between Jamaica and the Republic of Tunisia.
• Since independence, these two recent milestones have brought the total number of countries with which Jamaica has formalised diplomatic ties to 176.

(Source: JIS)