• On March 17, 2025, GraceKennedy Financial Group Limited (GK) issued an offer to purchase 100% of the issued share capital of Key Insurance Company Limited for J$2.70 per share. The offer is set to open for acceptance on March 24, 2025, and will close on April 22, 2025.
• The acquisition is expected to cost J$403,707,601.80. The company plans to fund the acquisition from internally generated resources of the GraceKennedy Group.
• Key Insurance Company Limited operates as a general insurance company in Jamaica in the Motor and Non-Motor segments. The acquisition would allow for greater reach and market presence for GK, whilst reducing competition in its insurance segment.
• Key Insurance is currently listed on the JSE’s Main Market. Under the Main Market Rules, a company can be delisted if a single shareholder, directly or indirectly, controls more than 80% of a company’s listed shares. GK currently owns approximately 73% of Key's issued shares. As such, if upon completion of the Offer, its ownership stake exceeds the 80% threshold, the delisting would take effect after the bid is finished.
• Additionally, if enough of Key's Shareholders – excluding GK – accept the offer and bring GK’s ownership to at least 90% of the Key’s issued ordinary stock units, GK intends to exercise its rights to compulsorily acquire all remaining shares, regardless of whether the owners have expressly disagreed with or failed to respond to the Offer.
• Since the news release, KEY’s stock price has appreciated by 15.3% to close Tuesday’s trading session at $2.49, leaving an additional upside of 12.5% to the offer price.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• On March 13, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda and endorsed the staff appraisal.
• In concluding the 2025 Article IV consultation, the Executive Directors of the IMF endorsed the staff’s appraisal, as Antigua and Barbuda’s post-pandemic economic expansion continues. Economic activity, boosted by tourism, is estimated to have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with growth estimated at 4.3%, driven by strong tourism and one-off events (including the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States and the T20 Cricket World Cup). As the recovery matures, the IMF projects economic growth to moderate from 3% in 2025 to 2.5% over the medium term.
• The recovery in nominal GDP, along with improved fiscal balances, brought down the public debt from around 100% of GDP in 2020 to 67% in 2024. However, gross financing needs are projected to remain around 10% of GDP in the medium term.
• The fiscal primary balance improved to 4.6% in 2024, aided by indirect tax increases, a broader economic recovery, and one-off factors (e.g., nearly 2% of GDP from an asset forfeiture and unusually low capital spending). The 2025 Budget envisages stronger tax revenues and higher capital spending. The recent improvement in tax revenue is welcomed by the IMF, with further domestic revenue mobilization needed in the medium term to ensure fiscal sustainability.
• Risks are currently tilted to the downside, emanating from elevated uncertainty about the global outlook, a deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation, commodity price volatility, climate-related vulnerabilities and capacity constraints in the construction sector.
• However, upside risks stemming from stronger demand for tourism, improved air connectivity, new cruise port facilities, hosting of special events and the intensification of productivity-enhancing structural reforms, which could support higher medium- and long-term growth are also present.

(Source: International Monetary Fund)

• The Barbados-based Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) is collaborating with the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) in a new initiative to modernise tourism education and workforce development across the Caribbean.
• The project is also aimed at strengthening the Caribbean's competitiveness in an industry vital to its economic stability. The Tourism Human Capital Development Project, funded through CDB's Caribbean Technological Consultancy Services (CTCS) Network, will allocate about US$400,000 to update training materials, develop workforce management tools, and deliver professional development programmes.
• Titled 'Enhancing the Knowledge and Skills of Tourism Workers in the Caribbean Region', the project aims to bolster the sustainability of the tourism industry, particularly for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).
• The CDB said that by modernising educational resources, the initiative will enhance tourism curricula, improve workplace management, and expand training opportunities for employers, workers, and entrepreneurs in CTO member countries. 'These efforts will equip industry professionals with the skills needed to adapt to evolving market demands and ensure the sector's long-term resilience,' said Dona Regis-Prosper, the CTO's secretary-general and chief executive officer.
• 'Strengthening our current and future workforce, from students and educators to MSMEs and industry leaders, is key to the sector's growth. Through targeted training, technical assistance, and enhanced educational resources, this project empowers individuals and businesses to elevate industry standards, improve service delivery and drive sustainable tourism development across the region.'

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• U.S. import prices unexpectedly rose in February amid higher costs for consumer goods, which does not bode well for the inflation outlook.
• Import prices increased 0.4% last month, matching January's upwardly revised gain, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics said on Tuesday. In the 12 months through February, import prices increased 2.0% after advancing 1.8% in January.
• Government data last week showed better-than-expected consumer and producer price readings in February, though there were firmer readings in the details that go into the calculation of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price indexes, the inflation measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for its 2.0% target.
• Imported fuel prices increased 1.7% in February after surging 3.5% in January. Food prices were unchanged after climbing 0.2% in January.
• Excluding fuels and food, import prices shot up 0.4% after being unchanged in January. In the 12 months through February, core import prices rose 1.4%, reflecting earlier dollar strength against the currencies of the United States' main trade partners.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday and stick to its mantra of only gradual moves ahead as it grapples with the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and mixed news on Britain's economy.
• All 61 economists polled by Reuters last week expected the BoE to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.5%, with the next cut likely in May, followed by further reductions in August and November.
• Data published last week showed Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly in January but there was also a noticeable jump in public expectations for near – and long-term inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee will have early access to labour market figures that are due to be published on the morning of Thursday's interest rate announcement.
• "We're probably going to see some slowdown in hiring which, other things being equal, should mean wage pressures moderate," Dean Turner, an economist at UBS Wealth Management, said. "But I'm not expecting that we're going to see a sharp increase in layoffs."
• In February, seven MPC members backed a quarter-point cut while two opted for a bigger half-point reduction. Investors will be alert to any changes in the views of MPC members, some of whom have sounded more worried about the risk of persistent inflation than others.

(Source: Reuters)

• Main Event Entertainment Group (MEEG) reported a 26.5% decline in earnings for the quarter ending in January, reflecting rising costs and sluggish revenue growth.
• MEEG’s revenue grew just 3.0% to $585.03Mn, reflecting higher revenues from previously underperforming segments, which according to management reflects the success of targeted expansion efforts.  Despite these contributions, the company is yet to reach its Q1 2023 revenue peak of $626.99Mn.
• Direct costs rose by 12.5%, primarily driven by event execution costs, infrastructure upgrades, additional non-recurring expenses incurred during the period, and higher labour costs associated with service delivery. With direct costs outpacing revenue growth, gross margin contracted by 4.1 percentage points to 51.6%.
• Operating expenses also outpaced revenue growth, rising 7.5% to $218.72M – from $206.35M in Q1 2024. This increase was driven by planned administrative improvements, a substantial one-time expense for the Company’s 20th Anniversary celebration, higher personnel costs, increased security and fuel expenses and a 51% rise in amortisation expenses to $11.36M due to renegotiated lease agreements and the addition of a new lease.
• MEEG’s lower Q1 2025 earnings follow the 66.2% decline in earnings in FY2024, which the company also attributed to “lower gross profit margins and increases in certain cost categories aligned with its growth strategy”.
• MEEG entered the 2025 fiscal year with a strategic focus on expanding revenue streams and strengthening client relationships. The company plans to improve operational efficiencies while driving revenue growth through deeper market penetration and strategic partnerships. Additionally, there are plans to use its owned events as a key revenue growth driver.
• Amid the weaker earnings, MEEG’s stock price has depreciated by 7.7% since the start of the calendar year to close Monday’s trading session at $10.80.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s point-to-point (P2P) inflation fell at 4.4% in February 2025, according to data released by STATIN.  This is a reduction from the 4.7% P2P reading in January 2025 – bringing local inflation closer to the lower end of the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) 4.0%-6.0% target range.
• The lower P2P can be attributed to a slower rise in the cost of ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (2.3%), which countered higher price increases from ‘Imputed Rentals for Housing’ (+5.1%).
• Meanwhile, the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+6.5%) and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ (+6.2%) divisions increased at faster rates. The increase in the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division was mainly due to a 19.2% rise in the ‘Fruits and Nuts’ class and a 9.4% increase in the ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ class. The ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ division was primarily impacted by a 6.1% increase in ‘Food and Beverage Serving Services’, amid higher costs of meals away from home.
• On a month-on-month basis, prices indicated by the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI¹) for February decreased by 0.9% relative to January reflecting a 2.0% fall in the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division and a 0.2% decrease in the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division.
• STATIN’s latest CPI readings reinforce the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) expectation that inflation will remain within its target range of 4%-6% over the next eight quarters. During its policy meeting on February 20, 2025, the BOJ concluded that the current policy rate of 6.00% remains appropriate to keep inflation within the target range and ensure stability in the foreign exchange market.
• However, the Trump administration’s tariffs – which triggered retaliatory measures from its key trade partners – and its immigration clampdown risk disrupting global trade and causing labour shortages in the US. These outcomes pose risks to the inflation outlooks in Jamaica and other emerging markets.
• The next decision will be made on March 27, when we expect the BOJ to maintain its rate, given the uncertainty that lies ahead, especially given policy uncertainty in the US.

_______________________

¹The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the general level of prices for consumer goods and services purchased by private households.

(Source: STATIN, NCBCM Research)

• Caribbean governments operating citizenship by investment (CBI) programs are scrambling for answers after reports of the US placing them on a travel-ban list. Four Caribbean nations find themselves caught in diplomatic uncertainty following reports that the Trump administration may impose travel restrictions on their citizens.
• According to The New York Times and Reuters, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Saint Kitts & Nevis, and Saint Lucia appear on a "yellow list" in a draft proposal that would give them 60 days to address security concerns or face more severe limitations. None of the affected governments have received official communication from Washington.
• "I want to assure the people of Saint Kitts & Nevis that your government has received no formal or informal communication regarding the alleged U.S. travel restriction draft list," Prime Minister Dr. Terrance Drew stated in response to the reports.
• Similarly, Roosevelt Skerrit, Prime Minister of Dominica, confirmed his government "has not received any official communication from the United States regarding a draft list of 43 countries recommended for visa restrictions." Dominica has instructed its Ambassador to make "the necessary inquiries seeking clarification."
• The reported travel ban includes eight countries that operate CBI programs. According to the New York Times, U.S. concerns could include "failing to share with the United States information about incoming travellers, purportedly inadequate security practices for issuing passports, or the selling of citizenship to people from banned countries.'
• Antigua & Barbuda's embassy promptly sent a formal note to the US Department of State on March 15. The note expresses "deep concern" while highlighting that Antigua "maintains a sanctions policy fully aligned with that of the U.S. Treasury in all financial matters." The government emphasized that its CBI program conducts rigorous vetting through international agencies, including INTERPOL. Prime Minister Gaston Browne remains optimistic, arguing that "upon any objective analysis, it will be found that there is no reason to restrict travel from our country."
• All four Caribbean governments have promised to keep their citizens informed as they seek official information from Washington.

(Source: Investment Migration Insider)

• Minister of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs Dr Amery Browne has met with the High Commissioner for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) to Trinidad and Tobago, Jon Dean, to make a formal complaint about the visa imposition on Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) nationals and the lack of appropriate notice. The meeting was held on Friday, March 14, 2025, at the Ministry’s headquarters. 
• The purpose of the meeting was to present the position of T&T on the decision of the United Kingdom to impose a visa requirement for nationals of Trinidad and Tobago seeking to travel to the United Kingdom and to outline a way forward. 
• The High Commissioner of the United Kingdom confirmed that the specific reason for the imposition of the visa requirement was an increase in asylum seekers from Trinidad and Tobago and gave an explanation for the lack of notice. 
• The Minister expressed concern about the adequacy of the transitional arrangements, as such arrangements are already adversely affecting nationals who have made plans and reservations to travel to or transit through the UK. Both officials reviewed some specific cases and examples. 
• The High Commissioner acknowledged that the imposition of the visa requirement was sudden, advised that his team would seek to provide as much public guidance as possible during and beyond this initial period, and emphasized that the visa imposition would be reviewed throughout this year. The parties agreed that they would work collaboratively towards an action plan to address the situation that led to the imposition of the visa requirement and to seek avenues for a lifting of the visa regime as soon as possible.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Loop)

• U.S. retail sales rebounded marginally in February as consumers pulled back on discretionary spending, reinforcing the growing uncertainty over the economy against the backdrop of tariffs and mass firings of federal government workers.
• Nonetheless, the report from the Commerce Department on Monday suggested that the economy continued to grow in the first quarter, though at a moderate pace. It sketched a picture of a cautious consumer, with sales at restaurants and bars declining by the most in 13 months amid deteriorating sentiment.
• Retail sales rose 0.2% last month after a downwardly revised 1.2% decline in January, which was the biggest drop since November 2022, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, advancing 0.6% after a previously reported 0.9% drop in January.
• That decline followed hefty gains in the fourth quarter and winter storms in many parts of the country in January as well as wildfires in California. Sales increased 3.1% year-on-year in February. Monthly sales were lifted by a 2.4% surge in receipts from online stores. Sales at health and personal care stores jumped 1.7%. Sales at building material and garden equipment suppliers gained 0.2%.
• Receipts at food services and drinking places, the only services component in the report, declined 1.5%. That was the largest drop since January 2024 and followed an unchanged reading in January.
• Economists view dining out as a key indicator of household finances. Some believed cold weather could have kept people at home. Lower gasoline prices helped to lower the value of sales at service stations by 1.0%.  With consumer sentiment sinking to a near 2-1/2-year low in March, retail sales could struggle in the months ahead.

(Source: Reuters)