• U.S. consumer confidence rose to a six-month high in August amid optimism over the economic outlook, but Americans are becoming more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.
• The better-than-expected reading in consumer confidence, reported by the Conference Board on Tuesday, reflected improved perceptions of business conditions over the next six months, and the survey suggested the odds of a recession had continued to decline. Consumers' uneasiness over the labour market is mirrored by concerns at the Federal Reserve, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell last Friday signaling.
• "This report supports a rate cut on both the decline in inflation expectations and a softening labor market but is not so weak as to suggest a recession at this point," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic adviser at Brean Capital. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 103.3 this month, the highest level since February, from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would be little changed from the previously reported 100.3. Confidence was higher among consumers aged 35 years and older, and those with annual incomes above $100,000. The cutoff date for the survey was Aug. 21. The rise in confidence could have been influenced by President Joe Biden dropping out of the November presidential race and the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris to head the Democratic Party ticket.
• Consumers were less upbeat, however, about the labor market. The share of consumers who viewed jobs as "plentiful" slipped to 32.8% from 33.4% in July. Some 16.4% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," up from 16.3% last month.
• The survey's so-called labour market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, fell to 16.4, the narrowest since March 2021, from 17.1 in July. This measure correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department's monthly employment report. The unemployment rate has risen for four straight months.

(Source: Reuters)

• British shop prices fell in annual terms this month for the first time since October 2021, pushed down by summer sales of clothes and household goods, a survey showed on Tuesday.
• The British Retail Consortium said shop prices fell by 0.3% in August compared with the same month in 2023, after a 0.2% increase in July. Prices of non-food goods dropped by 1.5%, the biggest fall in just over three years, while food prices increased by 2.0%, slowing from 2.3% in July and marking the smallest rise since November 2021.
• "Shop price inflation has fallen again in August as many non-food retailers have kept promotional support due to the unpredictable weather," said Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at market research firm NielsenIQ, which compiles the data. "Food retailers have introduced more price cuts to help drive incremental sales during the 'summer of sport'," Watkins added, referring to the Paris Olympics and the men's Euro 2024 soccer tournament.
• The BRC survey covered prices in major store chains between Aug. 1 and Aug. 7. The latest official measure of annual consumer price inflation - which includes services as well as shop goods - rose for the first time this year during July to 2.2%, from 2.0% previously.
• The Bank of England expects CPI inflation to reach around 2.75% by the end of the year as the effect of sharp falls in energy prices in 2023 fades before returning to the BoE's target of 2% in the first half of 2026. The BoE cut interest rates from their 16-year high earlier this month, and investors expect at least one more quarter-point reduction before the end of the year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Kingston Properties Limited (KPREIT) closed on Wednesday, August 21, on the acquisition of two buildings located at 6 Duke Street and 8-10 Duke Street in Kingston, Jamaica. The acquisition was done on a sale and leaseback arrangement with Victoria Mutual Building Society and its affiliate VM Real Estate Holdings Limited.
• The buildings encompass a total area of just under 60,000 square feet and are currently fully leased.
• Furthermore, KPREIT has concluded the sale of four more commercial units at the Tropic Centre in the Cayman Islands out of a total of ten. This transaction increases the number of units sold to nine, with the sale of the last unit anticipated to be finalised in September.
• Following the acquisition of properties on Duke Street in Jamaica and the sale of units at Tropic Centre in Cayman, the Group's assets in the Cayman Islands now constitute 49.6% of the overall portfolio, whereas the holdings in Jamaica account for 43.5%.
• With these recent developments, KPREIT is poised to achieve its medium-term goal of managing US$100Mn in assets and generating over US$2Mn annually in Funds From Operations (FFO). The trust is also exploring global market opportunities, having established a subsidiary in the UK as part of its strategy to broaden its geographical presence.

 (Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, announced on August 26, 2024, to the Executive Board her proposal to appoint Mr. Nigel Clarke to the position of Deputy Managing Director, effective October 31, 2024. He will succeed Ms. Antoinette Sayeh, who, as previously announced, steps down on September 12.
• In announcing her selection of Mr. Clarke, Ms. Georgieva highlighted that Mr. Clarke is an exceptional public servant and policymaker with proven leadership in institution building and economic crisis management who has stewarded his country’s economy to a stronger and more sustainable position.
• She noted that since 2016, he has been the IMF’s chief counterpart on successive and historically successful programs for Jamaica, including an Extended Fund Facility, a precautionary Stand-By Arrangement, and most recently a Precautionary Liquidity Line plus Resilience and Sustainability Facility, leaving the country with robust economic fundamentals.
• Clarke has served as Jamaica’s Minister of Finance and Public Service and a Member of Parliament since March 2018. Before this role, he was the Ambassador of Economic Affairs starting in 2016. He led significant reforms in central bank independence, fiscal governance, and public sector management. His tenure included steering Jamaica's economic response to COVID-19, overseeing privatizations and public-private partnerships, and introducing a disaster risk financing model. Under his leadership, Jamaica also became the first small country to independently sponsor a catastrophe bond and completed its inaugural international local currency bond issue in 2023.
• In 2022, Mr. Clarke was elected Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank and the Inter-American Investment Corporation. Prior to his public service career, he was Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer of the Musson Group, a regional conglomerate, having started his career as an Equity Derivatives Trader at Goldman Sachs in London.

(Source: IMF)

• The Government of Guyana, led by President Dr. Irfaan Ali, and United Kingdom officials, recently discussed business proposals in various sectors that are currently under consideration.
• In a statement, the British High Commission said it recently concluded a productive visit by His Majesty’s Trade Commissioner (HMTC) for Latin America and the Caribbean, Jonathan Knott. During the visit, Knott met with President Ali to discuss United Kingdom-Guyana relations, focusing on business proposals currently under consideration by the Government of Guyana.
• According to the statement, those talks centred on investment opportunities in Guyana’s energy, maritime, and construction sectors, reinforcing the UK’s commitment to supporting Guyana’s development.
• Meanwhile, the UK delegation also engaged the British Chamber of Commerce, Private Sector Commission, Georgetown Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Georgetown Manufacturing & Services Association, the Women’s Chamber of Commerce and several other local business-support organisations to discuss opportunities for improved commercial relations and access to finance through UK Export Finance (UKEF) to support projects in Guyana.
• Earlier this year, UKEF increased its risk appetite from £750Mn to £2.1Bn to support both public and private sector projects in Guyana. “This visit underscored the UK’s strong business interest in Guyana and highlighted the enduring spirit of long-term partnership, knowledge transfer, and development,” the British High Commission said.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• The Grenada Tourism Authority reported a significant increase in tourist arrivals in the first half of this year, from January to July 2024.
• Visitor numbers have risen by 20% in Q1 and Q2 compared to 2019 and 18% compared to 2023, reflecting the continued growth of Grenada as a sought-after travel destination despite recent challenges. In July 2024 alone, visitor arrivals increased by 10% over 2019 and 5% over 2023.
• Travel intelligence and data analytics company ForwardKeys produced a detailed analysis of the impact of Hurricane Beryl. They included a focus on the quick recovery of Grenada as one of their case studies. “The market has shown impressive resilience, quickly bouncing back to normal booking levels,” the organization noted.
• Following Hurricane Beryl’s passage, tourism officials worked tirelessly to reassure the world and major source markets of the tri-island state’s resilience. While the northern parts of the island and sister islands needed relief aid and assistance, mainland Grenada remained open for visitors. These conscientious, strategic efforts have been pivotal in achieving these impressive results.
• “We are thrilled to see such positive growth in our visitor arrivals during this period, which speaks volumes about Grenada’s enduring appeal and the hard work of our tourism stakeholders,” said Petra Roach, CEO of the Grenada Tourism Authority. “Our strategic efforts to maintain and grow our market share have been multifaceted. We have actively engaged with our key source markets to meet directly with travel and airline partners, as well as with media members,” she explains.

(Source: Caribbean News Now)

• San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Monday said "the time is upon us" to cut interest rates, likely starting with a quarter-percentage point reduction in borrowing costs. Asked if there is anything that could derail a rate cut at the U.S. central bank's Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, Daly told Bloomberg TV that it "would be hard to imagine at this point."
• She said the "most likely" path ahead is for inflation to continue to slow gradually and for the labor market to add jobs at a "steady, sustainable" pace - and if that projection plays out, "adjusting policy at the regular, normal cadence seems reasonable."
• "We haven't seen any deterioration yet in the labor market," she said, but "if we should see deterioration or any signs of weakness, then being more aggressive to ensure that we don't see that would be appropriate." Using words that echoed those of Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a conference last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, she said, "the direction of change is down. And the time to adjust is now in my opinion."
• Last week, Powell told the Jackson Hole global central bankers' meeting that "the time has come" to start cutting interest rates, given the progress made in bringing down inflation and the extent of cooling in the labor market.
• By the Fed's preferred gauge, the year-over-year increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index, inflation rose 2.5% in July; the Fed's target is 2%. In 2022 it had peaked at around 7%. The U.S. unemployment rate in July was 4.3%, nearly a full percentage point higher than it was a year ago, but still low by historical standards.
• "We don't want to get ourselves into a situation where we're keeping policy highly restrictive into a slowing economy," Daly said. "Remember, every time inflation comes down, the policy gets more restrictive. And I think that's a recipe, if you will, for overtightening and injuring the labor market and growth."

(Source: Reuters)

• Growing signs of lackluster growth and risks emerging in the job market overshadowed a gathering of global policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole conference, highlighting the changing trajectory of monetary policy as U.S. and European central banks eye cutting interest rates.
• Even as the focus of U.S. and European central bankers shifts from high inflation to softening job markets, the Bank of Japan reaffirmed its resolve to wean its economy off decades of monetary support amid growing signs of sustained price growth.
• The divergence in policy direction, coupled with lingering weakness in China, the world's second-largest economy, points to turbulent times for the global economy and financial markets. The policymakers who met at the annual economic symposium already had a taste of what may come when weak U.S. jobs data earlier this month stoked recession fears and triggered a market rout aggravated by the BOJ's surprise rate hike in July.
• So far, many analysts agree with the International Monetary Fund's projection that the global economy will achieve modest growth in coming years as the U.S. achieves a soft landing, Europe's growth picks up and China emerges from the doldrums.
• However, such rosy projections rest on shaky ground, with doubts emerging over prospects for a U.S. soft landing, euro-zone growth failing to revive, and China suffering from sluggish consumption.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaica-based Global Tourism Resilience and Crisis Management Centre (GTRCMC) and Brazil’s Ministry of Tourism have signed a groundbreaking Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to facilitate cooperation in boosting tourism resilience.
• The MOU encompasses areas of cooperation such as climate resilience in tourism, entrepreneurial tourism resilience, tourism security resilience, and tourism pandemic resilience. The Honorable Edmund Bartlett, Minister of Tourism, announced that the collaboration will lead to the creation of a GTRCMC satellite centre at the University of San Luis. This partnership, which was formalised at a ceremony in São Luís, Brazil, aims to provide stakeholders with the necessary tools to face upcoming challenges and foster a more resilient tourism sector.
• Minister Bartlett, who signed the MOU alongside his Brazilian counterpart, Hon. Celso Sabino, and Governor of Maranhão, Carlos Brandão, emphasised the importance of this collaboration. It was noted that the establishment of the GTRCMC satellite centre at the University of San Luis will occur in September 2024, coinciding with the G20 Tourism Ministers’ meeting, where Minister Bartlett is expected to present on tourism resilience and sustainability.
• Additionally, Jamaica is poised to become the most connected English-speaking Caribbean destination to Brazil and by extension South America, following high-level discussions led by Minister Bartlett, and his Brazilian counterpart, Minister Sabino.
• Minister Bartlett also noted that the Brazilian government expressed its willingness to incentivise airlines operating this route, a significant step towards enhancing connectivity and facilitating travel between the two countries. “This will undoubtedly deepen our social and cultural ties to South America, opening the door to new economic opportunities for all countries in the region. Our meetings with Brazilian stakeholders underscore our commitment to fostering sustainable growth and expanding Jamaica’s reach in Latin America,” Minister Bartlett added.
• Minister Bartlett further explained that the collaboration is expected to significantly increase the number of Brazilian visitors to Jamaica, contributing to the country’s economic growth and development.

(Source: JIS)

• Brazil will tighten up rules to enter the country without a visa starting next week, the government said, after migrants have been increasingly using the South American nation as a stop-over on the way to the United States and Canada.
• Starting on Monday, August 26, foreign travellers without a Brazilian visa who are headed for another country must travel on to their destination or return to their home country, Brazil's public security ministry told Reuters in a statement.
• Brazil has seen a boom in foreign travellers, particularly from Asia, landing in the country for a supposed layover only to then apply for refuge while they are there, the ministry said. Now, those passengers without a visa will not be allowed to stay in Brazil.
• Investigations revealed that those migrants are requesting to stay in Brazil, alleging persecution and threats in their home countries. Once they are granted refuge in Brazil, many often travel north by land, mainly heading to the United States or Canada through the dangerous Darien Gap, which connects Colombia and Panama, the ministry said, citing police investigations.
• From the beginning of 2023 to the end of June this year, more than 8,300 requests for refuge were presented at Brazil's busiest international airport, according to the ministry. Of those requests, only 117 stayed active in Brazil's national migration system.
• "That means that 99.59% of the people who requested refuge at the airport, 8,210 have either left the country or stayed irregularly," one of the reports stated. More than 70% of the applicants during that period were from India, Vietnam and Nepal, according to the reports, which National Justice Secretary Jean Uema told Reuters bucks historic trends.

(Source: Reuters)