Cuba’s long-term economic outlook will remain relatively weak, despite a new constitution aimed at facilitating economic reforms. In particular, political reforms which entrench the Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) in power will be a headwind to growth in the years ahead. We maintain our 2018 real GDP growth forecast at 1.1%, down from an estimated 1.8% in 2017. In 2019, growth will accelerate modestly to 1.3% as agricultural production recovers and economic reforms bear some fruit.

Source: Fitch

On October 29, Mexican President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) announced the cancellation of the USD13.0bn New Mexico International Airport (NAIM) project, which was over 30.0% complete according to government estimates. The cancellation brings into doubt the outcome of Mexico's largest infrastructure project and raises concerns more broadly over policy formation under the incoming administration, souring investor confidence and resulting in a sharp sell-off of Mexican assets. 

Source: Fitch

 Key View

• Broad political consensus on IMF-backed reforms and a congressional majority will support policy continuity under Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness. 
• Reforms to the Bank of Jamaica (BoJ) will likely be enacted in the coming weeks, increasing the independence of the central bank. 
• Fiscal consolidation will remain a government priority, but we note that policy fatigue will likely limit the scope for future cuts. 

Source: Fitch

(CNBC) The European Central Bank (ECB) took no action on Thursday, leaving its benchmark interest rates unchanged. The central bank’s president said in a subsequent press conference that he expected euro zone inflation to pick up despite weaker momentum. Draghi also said he was confident that Rome and the European Commission would end an on-going disagreement over Italy’s fiscal spend.

(Bloomberg) The equity selloff that saw year-to-date gains wiped out for both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average in yesterday’s U.S. session appears to be running out of steam this morning. The Stoxx 600 Index was trading 0.4 percent higher by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time and U.S. futures also rallied as technical indicators show markets across the globe are in a deeply oversold territory. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2 percent while Japan’s Topix index closed 3.1 percent lower. The Treasury market remained relatively quiet with the 10-year yield at 3.130 percent while gold slipped slightly.

15 years after the country’s 2003–04 financial crisis, reforms put in place have contributed to strong economic performance over the past decade and a restoration of external stability. The economy is now growing close to potential, inflation is within the central bank’s target range, unemployment is near historical lows, and the external current account deficit has narrowed. The economic outlook remains positive with broadly neutral monetary and fiscal policy expected to keep economic activity on trend and inflation within the target band over the medium term. However, risks around the outlook persist, with the main downside risks stemming primarily from external factors. Political risks also remain a key issue.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2018, CCCL reported a net profit of $1.31Bn, down -30.6% relative to the $1.88Bn reported in 2017. Despite a +7% growth in revenue to $13.24Bn over the period, the reduction in profit was driven by significant increases in a number of expense line items. Increases were recorded in Depreciation and amortization expense ( 101.9%) or -$407.9Mn over the period. CCCL also reported net finance costs of -$1.08Bn for the period, compared to an income of $4.4Mn a year prior; while tax expense increased by 178.3% or  $448.5Mn. The company can look forward to increased competition in the future as Haiti-based Gilbert Bigio Group recently announced its intention to widen its Jamaican footprint with plans to pump $2Bn into the construction of local cement plant. 

• For the year ended December 31, 2017, Victoria Mutual Investment Limited reported net profit of $346Mn, a 9.15% increase relative to the $317Mn earned a year prior. 
• This growth resulted primarily from a 92% increase in fees earned from Capital Market activities and a 64% increase in Asset Management fee income.
• The company reported significant growth in Assets during the period, with an on-balance sheet and off-balance assets growing by 23% and 30%, respectively. The majority of off-balance sheet asset growth resulted from the introduction of our suite of Unit Trust products introduced in 2016.
• Revenue Generation through fee income remains a key strategic priority and the company aims to aggressively increase assets under management and advance their Capital Markets business.

Source: VMIL Financial Report

• Days after Prime Minister Mia Mottley announced plans to cut up to 1,500 government jobs, public servants have started going home.
• Head of the Civil Service Dr. Louis Woodroffe confirmed in a government statement issued yesterday evening that the process began last Friday and is expected to end tomorrow.
• A second phase of layoffs – up to 1,000 more – is expected to be carried out in the next fiscal year at statutory corporations, according to Government economic advisor Dr Kevin Greenidge.

Source: Caribbean 360

• Warnings of $100 crude are rapidly fading from memory as oil continues to tumble on international markets.
• A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for December delivery was trading at $66.38 by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time, almost 14 percent below the high reached earlier this month, while a similar Brent contract was at $75.64.
• A risk-off mood in the wider market, plus comments from Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih saying that OPEC and its allies are in “ produce as much you can mode” have put pressure on prices.

Source: Bloomberg