• Fitch forecast real GDP growth in Haiti will reach 2.4% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020.
• Beyond agriculture and commerce, the textile industry will remain a key driver of growth, underpinning formal employment and exports.
• Domestic political instability and uncertainty over US policies will undermine investment and limit long-term growth potential.

(Source: Fitch)

• Yesterday’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Congressional Democrat leaders produced no progress towards resolving the government shutdown as talks collapsed soon after they began.
• Trump, who walked out of the discussion yesterday, is traveling to the Mexican border today to rally support for his stance on the wall. Barring a last-minute change of heart by either side, 800,000 federal workers will miss their paychecks tomorrow.
• Republicans in Congress may be starting to lose patience with the president’s position as they hold their own meetings in an attempt to find a solution to the impasse.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Theresa May lost a vote in parliament yesterday which means she will have to quickly present her plan for what to do if she, as expected, loses a vote on the Brexit deal agreed with the European Union next week.
• With control starting to slip from the hands of the British Prime Minister, some now see a lower chance of a so-called “hard Brexit” on March 29.
• Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz became the first European Union leader to suggest that an extension to the deadline for the British withdrawal now needs to be considered.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Knutsford Express Services Limited (KEX) has advised that the Company has successfully raised $150M via a private bond to fund expansion plans locally and overseas including the acquisition of a small bus charter company in Florida.
• KEX traded at a price of $12.50 per share at the close of yesterday’s trading session with gains of over 8.7% over the last month. 
• At its current price, KEX trades at a P/E of 29.76 which is above its Junior Market sector peer average of 22.09x.

(Source: JSE Website, NCBCM Research)

• At the end of December 2018, The Bank of Jamaica’s Net International Reserves (NIR) stood at US$3,005.41Mn (+3.7% or US$106.91Mn), which translates to   32.80 (+0.99) weeks of Goods Imports or 19.47 (+0.59) weeks of Good and Services Imports.

• The improvement in the BOJ’s NIR was primarily due to fact that it increased its holdings of Foreign Assets while keeping its Foreign Liabilities relatively constant.

• In particular, the Bank held Currency & Deposits of US$2,960.02Mn at the end of December 2018, representing an increase of US$100.29Mn when compared with the US$2,859.73 reported the previous month.

• On the other hand, amounts owed to the IMF, which was the Banks’ only liability item, increased marginally from US$526.07Mn at the end of November 2018 to US$526.63 at the end of December 2018.

(Source: BOJ)

• According to Fitch, the Caribbean faces a number of significant economic and political challenges in 2019, most notably the potential for a slowdown in tourist arrivals amid weaker growth in developed markets.
• While they expect most economies in the region will hold up relatively well in 2019, headwinds in traditionally dominant industries such as tourism and financial services and the growing strain of the Venezuela crisis on the region will likely become significant stories as the year progresses.

(Source: Fitch)

• A team from the Barbados Ministry of International Business will travel this week to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris, France, to attend the Forum on Harmful Tax Practice (FHTP) from January 9 to 11.
• During the forum, the final review of Barbados’ response to the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) initiative will take place.
• Barbados was one of the first countries in the world to converge its local and international tax rates, making its tax system globally competitive.  From January 1, this year, domestic companies started paying the same tax rates as international companies.  The move sought to bring the country in line with the BEPS initiative while avoiding severe international sanctions.
• After the FHTP meeting, the OECD will disclose its decision about Barbados’ response to the BEPS initiative.

(Source: Barbados GIS)

• German industrial output unexpectedly slumped 1.9 percent in November in a broad-based decline led by consumer goods and energy.
• Year-on-year output was down 4.7 percent, the worst performance since 2009.
• The dramatic downturn raises the risk that Europe’s largest economy will slip into recession as expectations for a rebound, voiced by the country’s central bank, seem premature. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

• A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for February delivery was trading at $49.20 at 5:50 a.m., helping the commodity to its longest rally in almost 18 months.
• Once again, trade talks are one of the main drivers of the recovery in crude, while expectations that tomorrow’s U.S. stockpiles data will show a drawdown are helping push oil back towards $50 a barrel.
• Shipping data, meanwhile, shows OPEC is following through on its latest promise to reduce production.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Shares of the company that owns the NYSE fall as some of Wall Street’s largest investors near the launch of a new, low-cost exchange.
• Nine banks, brokerages and other firms including Morgan Stanley and Fidelity plan to launch the exchange early this year.
• The launch of another stock exchange would come amid a mass migration toward cheap, no-fee investing options and exchanges across Wall Street.

(Source: CNBC)