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Historically Low Interest Rates Will Boost Brazil Growth Published: 10 January 2020

  • Economic activity in Brazil is expected to accelerate modestly over the coming quarters.
  • Consumption and investment will drive growth, underpinned by historically low interest rates and strengthening sentiment among consumers and businesses.
  • Fitch has revised its real GDP growth forecast to 2.3% in 2020, from 2.0% previously.

(Source: Fitch)

Puerto Rico's biggest power plant could be offline for a year Published: 10 January 2020

  • Puerto Rico's top energy executive on Thursday warned that the U.S territory's largest power plant could remain off line for up to a year because of earthquake damage
  • Two days after being hit by Puerto Rico's most powerful earthquake in more than a century, only half of the Caribbean island had power restored
  • Puerto Rico is going through a wrenching bankruptcy process to restructure about $120 billion of debt and pension obligations, and it was roiled by political instability in August when former Governor Ricardo Rossello resigned following massive street protests.

(Source: Bloomberg)

U.S. job growth seen slowing in December after robust gains Published: 10 January 2020

  • U.S job growth likely slowed in December, but the pace of hiring probably remains more than enough to keep the longest economic expansion in history on track despite a deepening downturn in a manufacturing sector stung by trade disputes.
  • The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday could buttress the Federal Reserve’s assessment that both the economy and monetary policy are in a “good place.”
  • Worries that a downturn might be triggered by the Trump administration’s trade war with China spurred the Fed to cut interest rates three times in 2019. Indeed economic growth did slow last year, throttling back to 2.1% in the third quarter from 2018’s pace of nearly 3%.
  • Now, though, with a Phase 1 deal with China set to be signed next week, policymakers are more confident in the outlook and last month signaled borrowing costs could remain unchanged at least through this year. Economists are pegging growth at the end of last year around a 2.3% rate.

(Source: Reuters)

Bank of England's Tenreyro joins rate cut talk Published: 10 January 2020

  • Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said she would be inclined to back an interest rate cut in the coming months if growth does not pick up, adding to suggestions that the central bank is edging towards pumping more stimulus into the economy.
  • Governor Mark Carney, who steps down in March, surprised markets on Thursday by saying from a “risk management” perspective there could be a case for cutting rates if the economic weakness seen in late 2019 persists into 2020.
  • Tenreyro sounded a similar note on Friday, saying the economy was more likely to undershoot than overshoot the BoE’s last forecast from November, the latest version of which will be published alongside the BoE’s next rate decision on Jan. 30.

(Source: Reuters)

Prime Minister Holness Urges Agency Heads To Pursue Growth-Inducing Projects Published: 09 January 2020

  • Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness has urged the heads of agencies under the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation to focus on developing fresh, innovative projects guaranteed to generate higher levels of sustainable inclusive economic growth for Jamaica.
  • “We need to now start thinking of game-changing innovative and large projects. Let’s look at projects that could solve our water problem, our energy problem and our transportation problems at the same time,” he suggested.
  • The Prime Minister was addressing a meeting of heads of agencies with responsibility for the Ministry’s water, housing and infrastructure portfolios, at The Knutsford Court Hotel in New Kingston on Wednesday (January 8).

(Source: JIS)

Jamaica To Target New Tourism Markets Published: 09 January 2020

  • Director of Tourism, Donovan White, says Jamaica will be targeting new markets for 2020
  • Speaking in an interview with JIS News, Mr. White said the focus will be placed on the Asian market, notably India, Japan, and China.
  • “The Indian market is huge and we believe that our newly crowned Miss World –Toni-Ann Singh – can play a major role in this regard. We will be using all the assets at our disposal, and as I said… we have a very strong hand going into these markets,” he stated.
  • White said that connectivity will also be very important, noting that Jamaica has been having an excellent run with some of the major airlines in the world.

(Source: JIS)

Consumption, Exports To Drive Growth In El Salvador Published: 09 January 2020

  • Bolstered by strong remittance inflows, private consumption and export demand will support El Salvador’s steady economic expansion over the coming quarters.
  • Fitch has revised up its 2020 real GDP forecast from 2.2% y-o-y to 2.4% and its 2021 forecast from 2.2% to 2.3% as a strong labour market in the US is driving larger than expected remittance inflows.
  • A potential escalation in violence as the result of President Nayib Bukele’s anti-crime initiatives poses downside risk to business confidence and investment.

(Source: Fitch)

Mexico Banking Sector: Improving Economy, Falling Interest Rates To Support Loan Demand Published: 09 January 2020

  • Asset, loan and deposit growth will rise in Mexico in the coming months, as economic growth picks up, interest rates continue to fall and US trade tensions fade.
  • Fitch maintains its constructive long-term outlook on the sector, given Mexico’s economic upside and relatively low levels of banking sector penetration.
  • The forecast is for loan growth to accelerate to 5.5% y-o-y in 2020, from an estimated 4.5% in 2019. This is down from our previous forecast of 9.8%, as there is now less optimism about the Mexican economy in 2020.

(Source: Fitch)

Stocks Rise, Oil Drops But Iran Jitters Remain Published: 09 January 2020

  • U.S stocks rose to records and Treasuries fell after President Donald Trump toned down rhetoric against Iran. Equities closed well off highs as reports of fresh rocket attacks in Baghdad heightened investor jitters.
  • The S&P 500 jumped to an intraday record after the U.S. president suggested further military action against Iranian targets is not necessary. The rally faded into the close after reports that rockets hit the Green Zone in Iraq’s capital where the U.S. embassy is located.
  • Equities had swooned overnight around the world after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq, escalating tensions that flared last week.

(Source: Bloomberg)

World Bank Cuts Economic Growth Outlook Published: 09 January 2020

  • The World Bank said that the global expansion will accelerate slightly to 2.5% in 2020, down from a previous 2.7% projection.
  • In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Wednesday, the lender warned that conditions remain fragile as it cut estimates for growth in 2020 and 2021 and lowered the euro area and China estimates for this year.
  • The outlook for a shaky recovery follows a year in which faltering trade and investment dealt the world its weakest growth since the global financial crisis. The bank warned that the scenario depends on much going right, an outcome that may be less likely should tension between the U.S. and Iran continue to flare.

(Source: Bloomberg)