• Iran’s threat to Europe on abandoning some of the terms of the 2015 nuclear accord was met with a cold response from European leaders this morning who said they reject any ultimatums.
• While EU leaders cited the need for more talks, they are in the thankless position of jawboning both Iran and the U.S. to take efforts to reduce tensions.
• It all looks unlikely for now after the White House issued an executive order banning the purchase of Iranian metal exports. 

 (Source: Bloomberg)

• The fate of the global economy lies in the hands of Washington and Beijing.
• That’s the view of Oxford Economics, which found that the top risk is the trade dispute damping growth. The slowdown in China and a U.S. recession ranked second and third in the Global Risk Survey.
• Since the poll of 189 businesses was conducted before the latest round of duties on Chinese goods threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump, the figures may actually understate the risk companies see.
• Bloomberg’s own economists calculate that a 25% tariff on all imports from China would shave 1.5 percentage points off U.S. growth -- a cut that would halve the rate seen in the first quarter. Trump’s backers argue the sacrifice is worth it in the context of what they see as an existential innovation war with an increasingly muscular China. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The audited financials of Consolidated Bakeries Limited were encouraging for the year 2018. The company recovered from a $40Mn (EPS: -$0.18) loss to record profits $12.9Mn (EPS: $0.06).
• This improvement in performance comes on the back of a much better performance in revenues (+11.3%) and a significant improvement in interest and other income (+103.6%).  The latter was due primarily to a $9.94Mn one-off gain on investments which was reclassified to profit and loss.
• The stock has fallen 14.12% since the start of the calendar year. Caribbean Cream closed yesterday’ s trading at $1.94, and currently trades at a P/E of 32.33x earnings which is above the Junior Market Manufacturing sector average of 21.66x.

(Source: Consolidated Bakeries Limited)

• Minister of Industry, Commerce, Agriculture, and Fisheries, Hon. Audley Shaw has called for an increase in the productivity index so that the economy can remain on the growth path.
• Delivering the keynote address at the opening of a Middle Managers Conference at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston today (May 7), the Minister emphasized that as employment increases, production must keep pace with that growth, so that citizens can access improved services.
• “Even as we create more jobs, we must focus on incremental increases in worker productivity,” Mr. Shaw told the audience, adding that training of workers must also be sped up.

(Source: JIS)

• Dominican Republic’s health tourism posted an average income of US$265.0Mn during 2018, surpassing 2017 by US$34.6Mn.
• The figures show that in 2018 there was a marked increase in spending by international patients for medical services in the country.
• The data was provided in the “Study and Diagnosis of Health Tourism” in the Dominican Republic, which found that 10 major challenges or related challenges must be surpassed to develop health tourism in the Dominican Republic.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Guyana will see real GDP growth accelerate in the coming quarters, driven by primary sector investment and production gains.
• Rising revenues from the oil and gas sector will allow for increases in public spending and aid private consumption.
• Fitch Solutions has revised up its real GDP growth forecasts for Guyana to 4.1% YoY in 2019 and 4.2% in 2020, from 3.6% and 3.8% previously, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the primary sector.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Iran said it will resume uranium enrichment beyond limits agreed under the 2015 nuclear deal in 60 days if European signatories to the agreement fail to find a way for the country to continue to sell oil and trade with the world.
• The move comes as tensions between the country and the U.S. continue to ratchet higher after America sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the region.
• When the U.S. ended exemptions allowing countries to buy Iranian oil, it also imposed new measures aimed at effectively halting all nuclear materials trade by Iran.
• So far, European efforts to find a way of allowing Iran to continue international trade have failed to produce meaningful results. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Chinese media reported that the nation has full confidence it can overcome challenges in trade negotiations with the U.S. on the eve of the next round of talks in Washington.
• Attention will focus on whether the U.S. will follow through on threats to implement tariffs on Friday, whether China will retaliate, and if talks can survive such moves.
• Latest data shows that the trade war and global growth slowdown continue to take their toll on the world’s second-largest economy.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon put the odds of the U.S. and China reaching a trade deal at 80%.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Jamaica is on the path to stronger economic performance over the coming years following a reform program which is anticipated will put the country on a more sustainable growth trajectory.
• After poor economic governance led to two sovereign debt defaults since 2010, Jamaica is now closely coordinating policy with the IMF in a bid to improve its business environment, rein in government spending, diversify its economy, and reduce its external vulnerabilities.
• As a result of recent and upcoming initiatives, the forecast is that real GDP growth will average 2.0% over the next decade, compared to an average of just 0.1% over the past ten years.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Jamaica's well-developed democratic institutions and broad consensus between the country's main political parties on the need for economic reform will help to maintain broad political stability over the next decade.
• However, significant domestic challenges across a number of fronts, including security concerns, joblessness, and increasing fiscal austerity will provide fertile ground for intermittent social unrest.
• In the Long-Term Political Risk Index prepared by Fitch, Jamaica scores 16th out of 26 Caribbean countries.
• The country boasts relatively high scores on the 'policy continuity' subcomponent but is weighed down by lower 'policy enforcement' and 'rule of law' scores.

 (Source: Fitch)