• With inflation anchored within the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) target range, Fitch Connect forecasts that the Central Bank will lower the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 5.25% by December 2025. This reflects an upward revision from Fitch’s previous forecast of Jamaica’s policy rate ending 2025 at 4.50%.
• This expectation for loosening monetary policy is supported by consistent decreases in private sector inflation expectations, projected declines in global oil and food prices, stable regulated price schemes, and moderating wage pressures against a soft-ish growth backdrop.
• While Fitch expects a reduction in policy rates, the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to rush this process due to U.S. economic policy uncertainty. Instead, rate reductions are expected to resume in Q3 2025 and Q4 2025.
• Of note, the BOJ touted positive domestic inflationary developments in their February 2025 decision -where they held rates at 6.0%; however, the uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic environment will likely elicit a more cautious monetary policy posture at the BOJ’s MPC meetings in Q2 2025. This cautious stance will also be supported by the vulnerability of Jamaica’s economy to an appreciating dollar and BOJ’s focus on maintaining foreign exchange stability.
• That said, risks to Fitch’s forecast are tilted to the upside, with the possibility of a strong US dollar increasing imported inflation pressures and worse-than-expected weather conditions and storms resulting in supply-side inflationary risk. Should these risks materialise, the BOJ may opt to pursue a relatively tighter monetary policy stance to preserve the recent progress made toward achieving its mandate.
• Downside risks to the forecast include weaker-than-expected demand, driving inflation lower than projected, with the potential for softer growth outcomes in the U.S. standing out as a key threat in this regard, given its close ties to Jamaica.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• The ordinary shares of MFS Capital Partners Limited (MFS), which trades under the symbol MFS on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), resumed trading last Friday, March 7, 2025.
• MFS was suspended at the end of 2024 after failing to submit its audited reports ending June 2024 within a six-month timeline to the market. Listed firms have three months to submit audited financials and an additional three months to rectify the violation.
• All outstanding issues that led to the suspension of trading in MFS shares have now been addressed, according to the JSE. These included the submission of its Audited Financial Statements for the year ended June 2024 and 1st Quarter Unaudited Financial Statements for the period ended September 30, 2024.
• The Company further agreed in its discussions with the JSE to share a market release on the measures that MFS had put in place to prevent a recurrence of the issues regarding its financial reporting, and this was done and circulated to the market.
• In light of the Company’s compliance, MFS has remedied its breaches of JSE’s Junior Market Rule Appendix 2, Part 4 (1) (e) & 4 (2) (e). Dr. Marlene Street Forrest, Managing Director of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, stated that “MFS Capital Partners Limited is now in compliance with the Rules of the JSE, and there is no reason for the shares to remain suspended.

(Source: JSE)

• The Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority (ABTA), with full support from its key partners: Tamarind Hills Resort and Villas, Caribbean Beach Cottages (Hawksbill, Cocos & Keyonna), Royalton Resorts, and Elite Island Resorts, proudly confirmed the continuation of Condor Airlines’ seasonal service at the 59th edition of ITB Berlin, the largest travel trade show in Europe.
• The return of Condor Airlines marks another milestone in Antigua and Barbuda’s efforts to expand its presence in the German-speaking (DACH) market. Following the airline’s resumption of service last year, the destination experienced a 26% increase in arrivals from the DACH market in the first two months.
• Year-to-date growth from German-speaking travellers continues to trend positively with a 46% increase in January 2025 compared to the same period last year, with strong forward bookings leading into Antigua Sailing Week.
• Colin C. James, CEO of the Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority, reinforced the significance of the Condor partnership, stating, “Antigua and Barbuda have maintained a long-standing relationship with the German-speaking markets. Condor’s return for a second season is a strong testament to the route’s success, particularly in attracting high-end travellers. The demand from this market continues to drive growth in the luxury sector, aligning with our strategy to increase and sustain airlift from Europe.”
• Through a series of strategic initiatives, including trade visits, media collaborations, and an extensive cooperative campaign with the airline, we are seeing notable growth from the German-speaking market and broader continental Europe. Our hotel partners are fully supportive of diversifying their target market and recognize the potential in this region.
• The Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority remains committed to expanding air connectivity and strengthening its position as a sought-after destination for European travellers.

(Source: Reuters)

• In line with Fitch’s expectations but surprising to the downside of consensus projections, the Brazilian economy effectively stagnated in Q4 with output expanding by just 0.2% on a q-o-q basis (consensus: +0.5%). Strength in preceding quarters, however, helped to keep the y-o-y rate at a reasonably elevated 3.6%, with full-year growth coming in at an impressive 3.4%.
• In terms of the underlying breakdown, the consumer was an unexpected source of weakness, with household spending contracting by 1.0% q-o-q (Q3: +1.3%). There were also some adverse developments on the external front, as exports declined by a significant 1.3% (Q3: -0.7%). Fixed investment held up reasonably well (+0.4%) but did slow sharply relative to Q3 (+2.3%), while government spending increased by another hearty 0.6% (Q3: +0.8%).
• Today’s data were in line with expectations and as such have minimal implications for projections. Brazil’s GDP growth is forecasted at 2.0% this year, reflecting relatively favourable carryover effects of around 0.5pp, a probable bounce back in consumer spending in Q1 given a still tight (albeit no longer tightening) labour market. The economy should lose considerable momentum over H2, flirting with recession as 10.0% real interest rates leave their mark.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Risks to the Mexican, Canadian and American economies are piling up amid a chaotic implementation of U.S. tariffs that has created deep uncertainties for businesses and decision-makers, according to Reuters polls of economists taken this week. U.S. inflation risks, which were already rising, have worsened, leaving the Federal Reserve on the sidelines for several months at least, while for Mexico, Canada and the U.S., recession risks are also mounting, the surveys found.
• U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has threatened 25% tariffs on imports of goods from its two neighbouring trading partners and on Thursday removed them temporarily for a second time in only about six weeks of government.
• This has made it nearly impossible to forecast growth, inflation and interest rates well into the future, economists say, even leaving the immediate Bank of Canada rate decision on March 12 - already likely to be nuanced - too difficult to call for some.
• Economists at top banks and research institutions spoke of chaos when reached out for forecasts, with many expressing exasperations over Trump's on-again-off-again approach to trade policy. "Given this is so uncertain and that there are new announcements every hour or so, it's kind of unclear what the environment is going to look like. It's hard to deny the risk of a recession has intensified," said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays in New York.
• Until now, economists have been loath to entirely factor into their forecasts the Trump administration's volte-face on global trade policy, and the added uncertainty over how the change is being implemented is making forecasting even more difficult. Some are even running dual scenarios, one with tariffs and one without, but without much conviction about which is most likely.
• However, nearly every economist - 70 of 74 - polled this week across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico who answered a separate question said the risk of a recession in their respective economy had increased, suggesting the outlook had soured considerably across the continent. The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday U.S. tariffs, if sustained, would have a significant adverse impact on Mexico and Canada.

(Source: Reuters)

• Former central banker Mark Carney won the race to become leader of Canada's ruling Liberal Party and will succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister, official results showed on Sunday. Carney will take over at a tumultuous time in Canada, which is in the midst of a trade war with longtime ally the United States under President Donald Trump and must hold a general election soon.
• Carney, 59, took 86% of votes cast to beat former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland in a contest in which just under 152,000 party members voted. "There's someone who's trying to weaken our economy," Carney said of Trump, spurring loud boos at the party gathering. "He's attacking Canadian workers, families, and businesses. We can't let him succeed."
• Trudeau announced in January that he would step down after more than nine years in power as his approval rating plummeted, forcing the ruling Liberal Party to run a quick contest to replace him. "Make no mistake, this is a nation-defining moment. Democracy is not a given. Freedom is not given. Even Canada is not a given," Trudeau said.
• Carney, a political novice, argued that he was best placed to revive the party and to oversee trade negotiations with Trump, who is threatening additional tariffs that could cripple Canada's export-dependent economy. Trudeau has imposed C$30 billion of retaliatory tariffs on the United States in response to tariffs Trump levied on Canada. "My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect," Carney said.
• Carney's win marks the first time an outsider with no real political background has become Canadian prime minister. He has said his experience as the first person to serve as the governor of two G7 central banks - Canada and England - meant he was the best candidate to deal with Trump. The prospect of a fresh start for the Liberal Party under Carney, combined with Trump's tariffs and his repeated taunts to annex Canada as the 51st U.S. state, led to a remarkable revival of Liberal fortunes.

(Source: Reuters)

• Carreras Limited (CAR) huffed and puffed and blew through the financial year, registering a 40.9% year-on-year increase in earnings to $6.23Bn for its 2024 financial year¹. CAR’s robust net profit was driven by healthy revenue growth and lower cost of goods sold (COGS).
• The company generated J$19.55Bn in revenues for FY2024, 11.5% higher than the year before. This represents its highest revenue to date and reflects the high demand for its recently launched products (Vuse Go & Vuse Go Max disposable vapes), coupled with a price increase from the second quarter.
• Augmenting the solid topline performance, COGS declined marginally by 3.2% YoY to $8.66Bn, resulting in its gross profit increasing to J$10.89Bn (+26.9%). Meanwhile, operating expenses increased by 8.8% largely due to higher distribution and administrative costs amid higher sales volumes and a broader industry-wide increase in security costs as the company invests in ensuring workforce and asset safety.
• Carreras continues to demonstrate a strong dividend track record with a dividend yield of 8.30%.
• With its strong financial performance and track record of high dividend payments, Carreras’ stock price has increased by 21.0% year to date, closing at J$15.78 per share on Thursday. With the price appreciation, Carreras’s P/E though still below its peers, is converging towards the peer average. The stock trades at a P/E of 12.29x versus the 13.45x Main Market Manufacturing & Distribution Average.

^{_________________________________
1}Caribbean FY2024 report compared the 12 months ended December 2024 to the 9 months ended December 2023 because it changed its financial year-end from March 31 to December 31 to align its reporting period with that of its parent company, British American Tobacco plc. Hence, NCBCM adjusted the 2023 figures to reflect the 12 months ended December 2023 by including the quarter ended March 2023.

(Source: CAR Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• For FY2024, GraceKennedy Limited (GK) reported net profit of $8.86Bn, a 5.8% increase over the prior year. GK’s performance reflects solid revenue growth, moderated by rising direct & operating expenses and finance costs.
• Revenues totalled $167.04Bn, representing a 7.8% increase over FY2023. This was largely driven by $131.68Bn from its Food segment (+7.3%), which benefitted from higher volumes and price adjustments. Expansion in its Insurance ($17.49Bn; +13.4%) and Banking & Investments ($11.00Bn; +14.4%) segments also supported revenue growth. However, Money Services declined by 2.5% to $8.62Bn reflecting increased competition in the sector and weaker remittance inflows into the economy.
• Regionally, Jamaica remained GK’s largest revenue generator with $96.72Bn, amid robust domestic demand, followed by the United States and Canada, contributing $21.63Bn and J$8.37Bn, respectively.
• Fueled by higher staff costs, reflecting salary adjustments and inflationary pressures, Direct and operating expenses rose by 7.7% to J$159.06Bn from J$147.46Bn in 2023. Advertising and marketing spending also increased by 21.6% to $4.76Bn, as GK boosted promotional activities to support revenue growth. Rising transportation and distribution costs, tied to both higher sales volumes and ongoing supply chain pressures also contributed to the increase.
• Lastly, finance costs were up 13.0% to $1.95Bn, largely driven by $1.01Bn from the Banking & Investments segments (+28.3%) and the insurance segment of $1.83Bn (+51.4%). The higher finance costs coincide with a YoY increase in the group’s financial liabilities (+6.4%).
• Since the start of the year, GK’s share price has declined by 6.9% to $73.48 and has a P/E of 8.72x, which is below the main market average of 12.58x.

(Source: GK Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana has asked the International Court of Justice to order Venezuela not to proceed with plans to hold elections in the disputed region of Esequibo, saying a vote would violate a prior court ruling, the Guyanese foreign ministry said.
• Venezuela will hold provincial elections on May 25, including for state governors. The government of President Nicolas Maduro last year passed a law creating a new state in the disputed territory, despite the ongoing case at the ICJ over which country Esequibo belongs to and a 2023 court order that Venezuela avoid actions that change the status quo in the territory.
• Guyana said in a statement that the United Nations' top court should prohibit Venezuela from conducting elections in the 160,000-square-km (62,000-square-mile) area, which it said "flagrantly violates" the 2023 order. Guyana said it also requested expedited hearings to prevent what could be "serious and irremediable prejudice" to its rights.
• The Venezuelan communications ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Tensions rose last weekend in the dispute over Esequibo – which comprises more than two-thirds of Guyana – when Guyana said a Venezuela coast guard patrol entered its waters and approached an output vessel in an offshore oil block managed by ExxonMobil.
• The Venezuelan government said the waters they entered are a maritime zone pending delimitation in accordance with international law. A final ICJ decision on the dispute could take years.

(Source: Reuters)

• Brazil's economy is forecast to have moderated in the final quarter of last year due to slower growth in private consumption and investment, a Reuters poll showed. The economy expanded by 0.5% in October-December over the previous three-month period, according to the median estimate of 21 economists polled February 26-March 3. The yearly rate was estimated at 4.1%
• A 0.5% rise would imply a deceleration from 0.9% in the third quarter. "This step down was... led by slower (private) consumption and the first decline in investment in over a year," J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a report. "Solid government consumption, a slightly positive contribution from net exports, and inventories should have contributed to a positive growth rate at the end of last year."
• The flip side of Latin America's No.1 economy's reliance on federal spending is increased fiscal worries, which have led to a selloff in the markets. At the same time, foreign direct investment increased less than the current account deficit last year, limiting Brazil's economic expansion. On the supply side, LCA 4intelligence economist Bruno Imazumi said he projected quarterly rises of 0.4% in services, 0.1% in industry, and 1.8% in agriculture.
• "Within services, we will see a still strong number for financial intermediation, insurance, supplementary pension and related services subsector," he added. Overall, the gross domestic product data to be released on Friday will probably confirm that economic growth closed 2024 well above weaker initial market estimates.
• Analysts had already upgraded their forecasts throughout last year to account for a solid job market and increased social spending, which countered the negative effect of high interest rates. In January, the latest consensus estimate of a Reuters poll pointed to annual growth of 3.4% for 2024, more than double the 1.6% rate seen at the start of last year.
• For 2025, Brazil's government cut its forecast to 2.3% last month as the central bank continued its monetary tightening cycle. The economic team also lifted inflation projections. Still, a senior government official said last week that the administration would not take exceptional measures to boost growth and reaffirmed its commitment to Brazil's fiscal framework.

(Source: Reuters)