• According to industry data released on Tuesday, British retailers reported lacklustre sales in November, affected by the timing of the Black Friday sales, although it still pointed to weakening consumer confidence.
• Sales volumes dropped by 3.3% in the 12 months to November, the weakest reading since April when they fell 4.0%, and below an increase of 0.6% in the year to October, the British Retail Consortium said.
• Last month's decline reflected the fact that this year's data did not include Black Friday sales in late November, which will be reflected in the December numbers, though they were included in last year's comparison.
• Nonetheless, other factors also weighed on consumer spending in November.  Rising energy bills have also weakened consumer confidence and dented non-food spending, which fell 2.1% year-on-year in the three months to November, reflecting a decline in spending on winter clothing.
• Additionally, easing consumer confidence post-summer, and expectations that post-budget inflation and interest rates will stay higher in the coming months also contributed In line with expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.75% later this month after cutting Bank Rates in August and November.

(Source: Reuters)

• Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed the unemployment rate stood at 3.6% in July 2024, down from 4.2% in April 2024.
• The total number of unemployed individuals amounted to 52,600, down from 62,800 in April, with females making up 52.5% of unemployed individuals. 19,500 of the unemployed persons were youth (aged 15 to 24 years), with females accounting for 10,100 or 51.8%.
• Overall, female and youth unemployment were higher. Female unemployment stood at 4.0% compared to males who had a 3.2% rate of unemployment. However, Youth unemployment was higher at 10.4%, with young adult females having a higher unemployment rate of 11.8% compared to 9.1% for young adult males.
• Of note, the labour force¹ shrank to 1,461,600 persons, from 1,483,100 in April 2024. 775,300 (53.0%) were males, while 686,300 (47.0%) were female. The decline in the labour force reflects a lower participation rate of 67.8%, down slightly from 68.8% in April.
• Regarding employee distribution across occupation groups, the ‘Services and Sales Workers’ segment employed the highest number of individuals at 338,200 or 24.0% of the labour force. The second largest was ‘Skilled Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Workers’ with 190,500 workers, followed by ‘Elementary Occupations’, with 185,900 workers.
• The ‘Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles’ remains the largest employer, engaging 265,200 or 18.8% of the individuals. The second largest industry group was ‘Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing’, with 201,000 or 13.8% of persons employed.
• The latest unemployment figure beats expectations for unemployment levels to inch up in 2024, given Jamaica’s economic slowdown to a 0.2% YoY growth in Q2 2024 and a subsequent contraction of 2.8% for Q3 2024.
• The unemployment data for April and July, reflects the new labour force series, introduced in January 2024 when unemployment amounted to 5.4%. It represents a break in the series and as such is not comparable with previous survey data. The new series incorporates the latest guidelines from the International Labour Organization (ILO), which resulted in, inter alia, a significant change in the definition of employment and unemployment.

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¹The labour force refers to the sum of those either working (i.e., the employed) or looking for work (i.e., the unemployed)

(Source: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Jamaica has launched a project aimed at addressing climate change by creating sustainable jobs, safeguarding workers’ rights, and fostering fair and inclusive growth. The ‘Jamaica Just Transition: Embedding Climate Justice in Regional Policy Framework’ project is considered an important step towards climate justice and sustainable development.
• The two-year initiative, which was unveiled during the Ministry of Labour and Social Security’s Regional Labour Talk Roadshow in St. Ann on Wednesday (November 27), brings together the International Labour Organization (ILO) and local stakeholders to foster collaboration and implement policies to infuse climate action with decent work principles in Jamaica, advancing social justice and sustainable economic development goals.
• At its core, the Just Transition concept aims to address the societal and economic challenges that arise from shifting towards a greener, more sustainable economy.
• The initiative focuses on ensuring that workers, communities and industries most affected by the transition to low-carbon practices are not left behind. This includes providing social protection, improving workers’ rights, creating policies that meet global standards, developing a roadmap for integrating climate action, and more.
• The government envisages that by 2026, Just Transition measures will be integrated into Jamaica’s national climate change policy frameworks, including its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

(Source: JIS)

• The Panama Canal is confident that it will maintain a “solid” performance despite a possible new trade war between the United States and China, resulting from the imposition of tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump.
• “In the past, despite trade differences between the United States and China, the performance of the Panama Canal has remained solid,” the administration of the interoceanic waterway said on Thursday.
• Trump announced his intention to implement a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products until these countries – which are his main trading partners – stop the arrival of illegal immigration and drugs.
• The Panama Canal is a major waterway through which about 3% of world trade passes. Its main customer is the United States, which accounts for two-thirds of the tonnage that passes through it, followed far behind by China and Japan.
• In fiscal year 2024, the Panamanian waterway, which links the Atlantic and Pacific, transported 423Mn tons and expects to increase that figure to 520Mn tons in 2025. International maritime trade will reach 12.29Bn tons in 2023, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
• The main routes served by the Panama Canal are the East Coast of the United States-Asia; the East Coast of the United States-West Coast of South America, and Europe-West Coast of South America. All types of cargo pass through it, from container ships, to refrigerated vessels with fruit, as well as bulk carriers, gas tankers, oil tankers and vehicle carriers.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The Dominican Republic has exceeded 10Mn visitors this year, with over 10,005,800 arrivals as of Monday, according to President Luis Abinader and Tourism Minister David Collado. The government aims to surpass 11Mn visitors by year-end, highlighting tourism’s crucial role in economic growth and job creation.
• In November alone, the country welcomed 881,499 visitors, a 54% increase from November 2019. Of these, 667,450 arrived by air, marking a 44% rise from last year, while 214,454 cruise passengers represented a 93% jump from 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Minister Collado assured that tourism incentives will continue to support the sector’s sustained expansion.
• At a tourism event in the capital, President Abinader and Minister Collado recognized key contributors, including Banco Popular Dominicano and tourism pioneer Frank Rainieri. The tourism industry, which employs over 720,000 people and accounts for 18% of national employment, continues to thrive, with 400 hotels offering over 84,000 rooms and a current hotel occupancy rate of 76%.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Canada's economy grew at an annualised rate of just 1% in the third quarter, in line with market expectations but less than the 1.5% forecast by the Bank of Canada, prompting currency markets to boost bets for a large rate cut next month.
• The increase in GDP came from an unlikely growth in consumer spending and persistent government expenditure but it failed to offset declines seen in business investments.
• The BoC has reduced borrowing costs by 125 basis points since June to 3.75% as the annual inflation rate fell back toward its 2% target and the bank grew more concerned about a hobbling economy. The GDP data, as well as an employment report due early next month, will help the Bank of Canada determine the size of an expected rate cut at its last monetary policy decision of the year on Dec. 11.
• Currency markets boosted their bets for a 50bps reduction in interest rates next month to around 44% from 31% before the data were released.
• Economic growth came below expectations at 0.1%, Statscan said, and a preliminary estimate showed growth was likely to be 0.1% in October. Analysts had predicted month-on-month GDP growth in September at 0.3%. The fourth-quarter number indicates a slower start to the final quarter of the year, which could force the bank to revise its fourth-quarter growth target it projected in October.
• Economists noted that growth prospects do not seem inspiring in Q4 2024 or the start of next year as a looming threat from the proposed 25% unilateral tariffs by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and immigration curbs will gnaw at the GDP pie.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United States on Monday launched its third big crackdown in three years on China's semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 companies, including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group, among other moves.
• New controls will be placed on semiconductor manufacturing equipment needed to produce advanced-node integrated circuits, including certain etch, deposition, lithography, ion implantation, annealing, metrology and inspection, and cleaning tools.
• Additionally, there will be new controls on software tools for developing or producing advanced-node integrated circuits, including certain software that increases the productivity of advanced machines or allows less-advanced machines to produce advanced chips.
• The new rule will expand U.S. powers to curb exports of chipmaking equipment by U.S., Japanese, and Dutch manufacturers made in other parts of the world to certain chip plants in China.
• Another rule in the package restricts high bandwidth memory used in AI chips that correspond with what is known as "HBM 2" and higher, technology made by South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix and U.S.-based Micron Technology.
• Industry sources expect only Samsung Electronics to be affected. Analysts estimate Samsung generates about 30% of its HBM chip sales from China. HBM is critical to both AI training and inference at scale and is a key component of advanced computing integrated circuits.
• The 140 new entrants on the Commerce Department's Entity List include semiconductor fabrication plants, also known as fabs, semiconductor tool companies, and investment companies "that are acting at the behest of Beijing to further China's advanced chip goals which pose a risk to U.S. and allied national security."

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s Monthly and Point-to-Point Producer Price Index (PPI) results were mixed for October 2024 across the Mining & Quarrying and Manufacturing industries according to data from STATIN.
• The monthly output prices for producers in the ‘Mining & Quarrying’ industry declined by 21.1% in October 2024, while prices in the Manufacturing industry increased by 0.2%.
• The downward monthly movement in the ‘Mining & Quarrying’ industry was led by a 21.7% decline in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’, marginally offset by the index for ‘Other Mining & Quarrying’ that inched up 0.1%.
• On the other hand, the marginal increase in output prices in the manufacturing industry was driven by slight increases in the prices for ‘Food, Beverages, and Tobacco’ and the Refined Petroleum groups. ‘Food, Beverages, and Tobacco’ grew 0.2%, driven by higher prices in the subcategories ‘Manufacture of Beverages and Tobacco’ (0.5%) and ‘Manufacture of Other Food Products’ (0.1%). Meanwhile, ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ grew 0.6%, resulting from higher crude oil prices on the international market.
• However, on a point-to-point basis (October 2023 – October 2024), the tables turned, with the ‘Mining and Quarrying Index’ increasing (+9.2%) and the Manufacturing Index declining (-0.3%).
• ‘Mining and Quarrying’ price increases were led by a 9.2% increase in the prices associated with Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing. Meanwhile, prices in the Manufacturing Industry were influenced by a 12.4% decline in the prices of Refined Petroleum Products, albeit moderated by a 3.1% increase in Food, Beverages & Tobacco prices.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a significant economic indicator that tracks the average fluctuation in selling prices that domestic producers of goods and services experienced over time. Currently, the only industries being tracked are the Manufacturing Industry and ‘Mining & Quarrying’.
• S. President-elect Donald Trump has asserted that once he takes office in January, tariffs may be imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump’s proposed tariffs could ignite a trade war¹, driving up the cost of goods and services to the U.S. and its trade partners. Since the U.S. is Jamaica’s primary trading partner and a key source of imported inputs, Jamaican producers could face increased input costs. This, in turn, may lead to further rises in the Manufacturing Index.

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¹A trade war is a situation in which countries try to damage each other's trade, typically by the imposition of tariffs or quota restrictions.

Source: (STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• Senator Hon. Aubyn Hill, Minister of Industry, Investment, and Commerce, has announced that the Government is strategically positioning Jamaica to become a regional hub for technology and innovation – a key pillar of the country’s economic growth agenda.
• During the Global Services Association of Jamaica (GSAJ) President’s Breakfast Forum in Montego Bay on November 22^nd, Senator Hill said the Government is incentivising innovation and digital transformation to foster an environment that is conducive to high-quality research and development in digital technology, including artificial intelligence (AI).
• Senator Hill emphasised the Government’s proactive embrace of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative technology. He noted that a National AI Task Force was established last year to lay an evidence-based foundation for crafting a comprehensive AI policy framework. The policy is expected to leverage AI, by integrating into sectors, like health, agriculture and education and, the Global Digital Services Sector (GDSS), to enhance productivity.
• Meanwhile, he urged GDSS businesses to capitalise on the advantages offered under the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) regime. He noted that companies operating within SEZs, including those engaged in outsourcing, can enjoy significant incentives, such as a 50% reduction in their corporate income tax rate.
• He noted that in the domestic economy, companies pay a corporate income tax rate of 25% to 33 1/3%, while companies in Special Economic Zones (SEZ) pay as little as 12.55%, which can be further reduced to 7.75% through the application of promotional and employee tax credits.

Source: (JIS)

• Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, on Tuesday, November 26, said Canada must stay united against a threat by Donald Trump to impose tariffs. Two major provinces quickly called on him to address the U.S. President-elect's concerns.
• Trudeau, due to meet the premiers of the 10 provinces to discuss U.S. relations, often notes his Liberal government has four years' experience dealing with the first Trump administration.
• Notably, Trump affirmed on Monday that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamped down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and migrants crossing the border. Such a tariff would badly hit the economy of Canada, which sends 75% of all goods exported to the United States.
• The premier of Ontario, the most populous province and the country's industrial heartland said Trump had good reason to be worried about the security of the long-shared frontier.
• In another early sign of strain, the premier of the oil-rich province of Alberta said late on Monday that Trump had valid concerns related to illegal activities at the shared border.
• "We are calling on the federal government to work with the incoming administration to resolve these issues immediately, thereby avoiding any unnecessary tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S.," Premier Danielle Smith said in a social media post.

(Source: Reuters)