• The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting that the labour market remained stable in February, though turbulence lies ahead from tariffs on imports and deep government spending cuts.
• That was flagged by other data on Thursday, March 6, showing layoffs announced by U.S.-based employers jumped in February to levels not seen since the last two recessions amid mass federal government job cuts, cancelled contracts and fears of trade wars.
• "Evidence is mounting that elevated uncertainty about the outlook for federal policies and still-tight monetary policy is pushing redundancies higher," said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended March 1, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week. The decline reversed the prior week's surge, which had lifted claims to a two-month high and was blamed on snowstorms and difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around the Presidents Day holiday.
• A separate unemployment compensation for federal employees (UCFE) program, which is reported with a one-week lag, showed applications rising to a four-year high of 1,634 from only 614 during the week ending February 15.
• For now, the overall labour market continues to plod along. The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" report on Wednesday described employment as having "nudged slightly higher on balance" since mid-January. Labour market stability is critical to the U.S. central bank's ability to keep interest rates unchanged while policymakers monitor the economic impact of tariffs and an immigration crackdown.

(Source: Reuters)

• Donald Trump pulled back from his trade war with Mexico on Thursday, March 6, temporarily delaying tariffs on many goods from the country once again, but he continued to attack Canada.
• Two days after imposing sweeping tariffs on all imports from his country’s closest trading partners, the US president announced that duties on a wide range of products from Mexico would be shelved until April.
• Trump has already softened the attack on Canada and Mexico, granting carmakers a one-month reprieve after they warned of widespread disruption.
• After a call with Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican president, Trump declared that “Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything” that falls under an existing trade deal between the US, Mexico and Canada known as USMCA. Tariffs are not paid by countries but by importers – in this case, US companies – who buy products from businesses in the targeted countries.
• “This Agreement is until April 2nd,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Thursday. “I did this as an accommodation and out of respect for President Sheinbaum. Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl.”
• The abrupt reversal and reprieve for Mexico raised immediate questions about the future of the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada. Trump pointedly attacked Justin Trudeau, his Canadian counterpart, shortly before announcing the temporary exemption for Mexican exports.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Local Cement manufacturer, Carib Cement Company Limited (CCC) generated J$5.95Bn in earnings for FY2024, 5.9% higher than in FY2023. Marginally higher topline performance – notwithstanding Hurricane Beryl¹,   marginally lower direct costs and higher financial income which compensated for increases in operating expenses, were behind the modest growth in earnings.
• Revenues came in at J$27.91Bn, 0.7% higher year-over-year as increases in sales of cement, clinker and other goods and services locally, in the Caribbean and Central & North America largely neutralized by an 11.2% decline in Q3 sales. The Q3 sales decline occurred because Hurricane Beryl and intense weather delayed the resumption of production after its annual maintenance shutdown.
• Cost of goods sold (COGS) fell marginally (0.5%) and supported a 3.9% gross profit improvement to J$11.58Bn. The marginally lower COGS, reflect lower direct costs in Q1, Q2 and Q4, which were largely offset in Q3 when raw material costs were higher as production eventually rebounded following Beryl and the company purchased cement during its scheduled maintenance shutdown.
• Unlike COGS, operating costs climbed by 5.7% due to higher administrative, selling, distribution and logistics expenses. Despite this, operating profit still increased by 1.4% to J$8.58Bn.
• Looking ahead, CCC’s management remains confident about the future, particularly the growth potential within the local construction sector. Moreover, the completion of CCC’s major kiln expansion project, now in its final stages, is expected to further strengthen its market leadership, minimise supply disruptions from unexpected events like natural disasters and allow a sustainable cement export programme, which will bring additional foreign exchange earnings.
• Year-to-date, CCC’s stock price is up 2.94%, closing at J$84.05 on Tuesday and a P/E of 11.72x.  This is below the Main Market Energy, Industrial and Materials Sector average P/E of 13.93x.

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¹Hurricane Beryl and other adverse weather conditions that disrupted cement production and resulted in lost sales during the second half of the financial year.

(Source: CCC Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) recorded net earnings of J$1.78Bn for FY2024, down 26.7% from FY2023 as rising expenses, increased finance costs, and a dip in other income weighed on the bottom line.

• SVL’s profit dip came despite a 3.5% increase in total revenues to J$52.67Bn. Higher revenues were supported by stronger performance in non-fixed odd wagering games and steady results from fixed odd wagering games net of prizes. However, Hurricane Beryl induced an approximately J$1.0Bn loss in gross ticket sales, which impeded the year-over-year growth and impacted its receivables portfolio.
• Other income was also down 25.9% to $0.67Bn amid lower gains on its financial assets.
• Direct costs rose by 3.2% to J$40.32Bn, driven by higher payouts for betting prizes, increased agent commissions, and greater contributions to regulatory bodies. These rising costs put pressure on margins, though gross profit still edged up to J$12.34Bn.
• Higher direct costs were compounded by operating expenses, which climbed 7.9% to J$9.11Bn. This reflected higher staff costs, increased spending on marketing and business development, and larger outlays for repairs and maintenance. These rising overheads weighed on operating profit, which declined by 8.3% to J$3.56Bn.
• With SVL’s stock price closing at J$19.06 at the end of Tuesday, the stock is down 23.0% year-to-date. This implies a P/E of 28.20x, which is higher than the 12.53x main market average.

(Source: SVL Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Mexico's government may look for other trade partners, the nation's president said on Wednesday, after the United States slapped tariffs on its southern neighbour. President Claudia Sheinbaum said that Mexico could shift trade alliances "if necessary," referring to the possible continuation of the tariffs.
• S. President Donald Trump's new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with fresh duties on Chinese goods, standing to seriously alter supply chains and long-standing trade partnerships.
• Sheinbaum is tentatively set to have a phone call on Thursday with the U.S. leader about the tariffs, she said in her daily morning press conference. If the tariffs continue after that, Mexico "will reach out to Canada and other nations," Sheinbaum noted. "It is a very definitive moment for Mexico," Sheinbaum said. "Our economy is fine, but there will be no submission. ... Depending on the circumstances, we will look to Canada and other countries."
• The Mexican peso slightly strengthened by 0.84% on Wednesday to 20.41 per U.S. dollar. In an appeal to Mexican national pride, Sheinbaum has called for a rally on Sunday in Mexico City's historic Zocalo square where she will outline her response to the United States, which she said would include retaliatory tariffs.
• S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Wednesday that an announcement on tariffs could come later in the day, hinting at possible relief for some sectors such as automobiles. The auto sector stands to take a heavy hit from tariffs, with parts typically crossing the border several times as cars are assembled. The United States imported $181.4Bn in autos and auto parts from Mexico in 2024, representing nearly 10% of Mexico's economy, according to Goldman Sachs.

(Source: Reuters)

• Trinidad and Tobago need to put proper policies in place to transform the foundations of the Carnival activities, underwriting their evolution into a competitive industry in the global marketplace. This is the advice from economist Dr Vanus James following comments made by Prime Minister Keith Rowley who described the heavy foreign exchange expenditure on Carnival costumes as “absolute foolishness.”
• Rowley who made the statements while speaking at Wednesday’s sod-turning ceremony for Nutrimix’s animal feed and pet food plant on the Point Lisas Industrial Estate, said costumes should be locally sourced.
• Meanwhile, Dr Marlene Attzs, a development economist, also agreed that the Carnival “business model” must also be redesigned so it becomes a net earner of forex rather than a forex drain. Attzs further advised that while the discussion on the use of scarce forex for importing Carnival materials is important, the issue should not be viewed in isolation. Moving forward, she said T&T must rethink its consumption habits, reduce dependence on imports, and acknowledge the reality of dwindling foreign exchange supply. “Without strategic interventions, we risk deepening the crisis and further eroding our economic stability,” she added.
• In its November 2024 Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank highlighted those purchases of foreign exchange by authorised dealers (supply) from the public amounted to US$3.72Bn from January to October 2024, a 0.7% decrease relative to the same period a year earlier. The marginal decrease in purchases followed a 0.3% rise in conversions by energy companies compared to the same period in 2023. Between January to October 2024, purchases from the energy sector accounted for 72.7% of total foreign currency purchases over US$20,000 in value.
• Sales of foreign exchange by authorised dealers to the public (demand) reached US$4.92 billion over January to October 2024, a 5.7% decrease relative to the same period a year prior.
• Based on reported data for transactions over US$20,000, credit cards (43.7%), energy companies (17.1%), retail and distribution (15.8%), and automobile companies (5.3%) made up the bulk of foreign exchange sales by authorised dealers to the public. The net sales gap reached US$1.20Bn during the period. To support the market, the Central Bank sold US$1,075.0Mn to authorised dealers.

(Source: The Trinidad & Tobago Guardian)

• A divided U.S. Supreme Court declined on Wednesday, March 5, to let President Donald Trump's administration withhold payment to foreign aid organisations for work they already performed for the government as the Republican president moves to pull the plug on American humanitarian projects worldwide.
• Handing a setback to Trump, the court, in a 5-4 decision, upheld Washington-based U.S. District Judge Amir Ali's order that had called on the administration to promptly release funding to contractors and recipients of grants from the U.S. Agency for International Development and the State Department for their past work.
• Chief Justice John Roberts and fellow conservative Amy Coney Barrett joined the court's three liberal members to form a majority in rejecting the Trump administration's request. Conservative Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh dissented from the decision.
• The order by Ali, who is presiding over an ongoing legal challenge to Trump's policy, had originally given the administration until February 26 to disburse the funding, which it has said totalled nearly US$2Bn that could take weeks to pay in full.
• Roberts paused that order hours before the midnight deadline to give the Supreme Court additional time to consider the administration's more formal request to block Ali's ruling. The Supreme Court's 6-3 conservative majority includes three justices Trump appointed during his first presidential term.
• The court did not provide a rationale for its unsigned order on Wednesday. With the original deadline now lapsed, the court instructed Ali to "clarify what obligations the government must fulfil to ensure compliance with the temporary restraining order, with due regard for the feasibility of any compliance timelines."
• Ali has a hearing scheduled for Thursday at the request of the plaintiffs for a preliminary injunction. The judge has a temporary restraining order currently in place that lasts until March 10.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. services sector growth unexpectedly picked up in February, and prices for inputs increased, which, combined with a recent surge in the cost of raw materials at factories, suggested that inflation could heat up in the months ahead.
• Rising price pressures could be worsened by a trade war triggered by President Donald Trump's new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which took effect on Tuesday, March 4, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%.
• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday, March 5, that its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) climbed to 53.5 last month from 52.8 in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 52.6.
• A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The ISM associates a PMI reading above 49 over time with expansion in the overall economy.
• The PMI pointed to resilience in domestic demand but was at odds with so-called hard data, including consumer spending and homebuilding, that have suggested a sharp slowdown in gross domestic product this quarter.
• With the goods trade deficit deteriorating sharply in January, largely blamed on the front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs, the Atlanta Fed is currently forecasting GDP contracting at a 2.8% annualized rate this quarter. The economy grew at a 2.3% pace in the fourth quarter.
• The ISM survey's new orders measure rose to 52.2 last month from 51.3 in January. That helped to lift its gauge of prices paid for services inputs to 62.6 from 60.4 in January. The ISM reported on Monday that its measure of prices paid by factories jumped to nearly a three-year high in February.

(Sources: Reuters)

• 1Great Studios (1GS) generated J$35.68Mn in earnings for the financial year ended December 2024 (FY2024), 54.88% lower than in FY2023 amid lower revenues. Revenues came in at J$342.20Mn, 25.75% lower than in 2023 reflecting a 39.0% decline in its SEO business line that offset a combined 19.0% growth in all other business lines.
• The impact of the underperformance in the company’s revenues on operating profits was exacerbated by a slower pace of reduction in cost of sales and higher operating expenses. Cost of sales fell just 12.9%. Operating expenses increased by 10.27% to J$87.43Mn driven by material increases in salaries, wages and related costs, advertising and promotion expenses. As a result, 1GS’ operating profit of J$47.41Mn was more than half its FY2023 figure.
• Non-operating costs softened the blow. Interest expense and taxation charges were markedly lower at 86.62% and 91.30% respectively, reflecting the benefits of tax exemptions from listing on the Junior Market, along with proceeds from its IPO, which helped reduce debt and interest expenses. Nonetheless, this was inadequate to offset the lower revenue and sticky operating costs. As a result, earnings fell to J$35.68Mn.
• Notwithstanding the not-so-great FY2024 profits, management remains optimistic about the company’s ability to leverage its expertise and services to drive shareholder value. Given new trends within the industry, 1GS continues to diversify its product and service offerings and other revenue streams including Web & App development, which followed as the second-largest segment. Meanwhile, strategically significant yet smaller segments, Digital, Branding & Creative, and Video Production, continued to play a vital role in the company’s diversified service portfolio.
• 1GS’s stock price has decreased by 32.35% since the start of the 2025 calendar year and has lost 54.0% of its market value since being listed in September 2023. The stock closed Monday’s trading session at $0.46.

(Source: 1GS & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector has recorded phenomenal growth over the past four decades, transforming from a modest operation in the Montego Bay Free Zone to a sprawling industry encompassing over three million square feet of space islandwide.
• According to Vice President, BPO and Logistics, Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ), Gloria Henry, this expansion has been fuelled by increasing private sector investment and strategic stakeholder vision to position Jamaica as a key player in the global logistics hub.
• The shift from public to private sector dominance has been a key driver of this growth. Up to 15 years ago, the public sector, through the PAJ, was the primary provider of BPO space. The private sector now accounts for 67% of the space occupied, a testament to the industry’s increasing attractiveness and potential.
• The PAJ has been pivotal in catalysing the BPO industry, facilitating its transition from traditional box processing to higher-value services.
• Meanwhile, Jamaica is being strategically positioned to capitalise on the $1.5Tn third-party logistics (3PL) space. The Cayman Special Economic Zone (SEZ¹) is expected to play a significant role in this endeavour, leveraging the synergies between BPO and 3PL. Given its proximity to Jamaica and its attractive tax incentives, the SEZ serves as a strategic hub for linking Jamaica’s BPO sector to the 3PL industry. By providing high-value support services, the SEZ acts as a regional enabler that can strengthen and expand Jamaica’s BPO operations.
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  ¹The Cayman Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is a designated area within the Cayman Islands that offers attractive incentives for international businesses to set up a physical presence, allowing them to operate essentially tax-free and with streamlined processes, primarily focused on attracting companies in sectors like technology, media, and financial services.

(Source: JIS)