• d a current account deficit of $3.1Bn in November, the central bank said on Monday, widening the 12-month shortfall mainly due to a weaker trade surplus.
• Over the 12-month period, the current account deficit rose to 2.37% of gross domestic product (GDP), doubling the level seen a year ago. The widening deficit reflects Brazil's stronger-than-expected economic performance, which has boosted imports and reduced the trade surplus.
• Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has estimated this year's economic growth at 3.5% - a sharp contrast to the 1.6% expansion projected by private economists at the beginning of the year. The robust economic activity has also driven up net spending on services and widened the deficit in factor payments, contributing to the larger current account gap.
• In November, the trade surplus reached $6.3Bn, a 20.9% drop from a year earlier. The deficit in services rose 24.6% to $4.7Bn, while the factor payments deficit increased 13.8% to $5Bn.
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) for the month totaled $7Bn, exceeding the $6.5Bn forecast in the Reuters poll. Over the 12-month period, FDI stands at 3.0% of GDP.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Congress early on Saturday passed a measure to boost Social Security retirement payments to some retirees who draw public pensions - such as former police and firefighters - which critics warned will further weaken the program's finances.
• The Senate in a 76-20 bipartisan vote shortly after midnight approved the Social Security Fairness Act, which would repeal two-decades-old provisions that can reduce benefits for people who also receive a pension.
• Last month, the House of Representatives approved the bill in a 327-75 vote, meaning the Senate approval sends it to Democratic President Joe Biden to sign into law.
• The bill will overturn a decades-old change to the program that limited federal benefits to some higher-earning workers with pensions. Over time, growing numbers of municipal employees such as firefighters and postal workers also saw their payments capped.
• Most Americans do not participate in pension plans, which pay a defined benefit, and instead are dependent on what money they can save and Social Security. Just one in ten U.S. private sector workers have pension plans, according to Labor Department data.
• The new provisions impact about 3% of Social Security beneficiaries - totalling a little more than 2.5Mn Americans - and the workers and retirees affected by these provisions are key constituencies for lawmakers and their powerful advocacy groups have pushed for a legislative fix.
• Some of them could receive hundreds of dollars more a month in federal benefits as a result of the bill, retirement experts said. Some federal budget experts, however, warned the change could hurt the program's already shaky finances as the bill's price tag is approximately US$196Bn over the next decade, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Canada's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points on December 11, 2024, was a close call, with some governing council members suggesting a smaller reduction, according to minutes released on Friday, December 20, 2024.
• The central bank slashed its key policy rate to 3.25% to help address slower growth. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated further cuts would be more gradual, a shift from the previous messaging that continuous easing was needed to support growth.
• The minutes said the discussions had focused on whether a 50-basis point or a 25-basis point cut was more appropriate. "Each member of the Governing Council acknowledged that the decision was a close call based on their assessments of the data and the outlook for growth and inflation," they said.
• Those preferring a bold move were concerned about a weaker growth outlook and downside risks to the inflation forecast, even while acknowledging that not all the recent data pointed to the need for a 50-basis point cut.
• "Governing Council members also discussed the future path for interest rates. There was a range of views on how much further the policy rate would need to be reduced, and over what period that should happen," the minutes said.
• "Members agreed that they would likely be considering further reductions in the policy rate at future meetings, and they would take each decision one meeting at a time."

(Source: Reuters)

• The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining will be placing greater focus on key areas in 2025 to pivot the sector for robust and sustainable growth, as well as to build a stronger, food-secure Jamaica. This was noted by Portfolio Minister, Hon. Floyd Green, during a press conference at the Ministry’s Hope Gardens offices, in St. Andrew, on December 18.
• “In 2025, we will be pivoting agriculture for robust and sustainable growth. The Prime Minister has already laid the charge that what we are looking forward to is accelerated growth, and we are very sure that the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining will have to drive that accelerated growth in a real way,” he said.
• Green said the Ministry will focus on strengthening resilience through more climate-smart technologies, irrigation systems, as well as continuing to organise around disaster preparedness. The Minister noted that $120 million is being spent to purchase small irrigation kits that will be distributed to farmers in the first quarter of 2025. The Minister also noted that the network of retention ponds has been expanded.
• Green noted that the Ministry will continue to introduce new technologies in the fisheries sector to enhance productivity. “We have deployed nine fish aggregating devices where our artisanal fishers now, instead of going out and doing guesswork in fisheries, use technology (to aid in their trade) and get greater returns on their investment,” he said.
• The Minister added that the Ministry will focus on driving growth through investments, the introduction of new agro parks, new contract farming arrangements and storage. Turning to contract farming, he said engagements have started with critical stakeholders on the matter.

(Source: JIS)

• Consumers are being urged to exercise prudence as they purchase agricultural produce, especially during the busy Christmas period. The urging came from Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Hon. Floyd Green, during a press conference at the Ministry’s headquarters, in Hope Gardens, on December 18.
• “Consumers need to understand that while farmers have faced challenges leading to price adjustments, the major price hikes are often occurring at the resale level, not necessarily at the farm level. For example, when we look at the average price for local Plummy Tomato it is about $660/kg. However, in the Kingston Metropolitan area, the same commodity is sold at an average price of $1,694/kg, with prices climbing as high as $2,070/kg,” he said. Mr. Green said this demonstrates the significant markup occurring at the retail level.
• Given these variations, the Minister urged consumers to shop around. “Prices differ significantly between markets and supermarkets, and taking the time to compare prices can result in major savings. Market spaces typically offer fresh produce at lower prices than some of our retail outlets, and where possible, consumers should buy directly from our farmers,” he said.
• Green said that despite the challenges of the drought, Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Rafael, and continuous rainfall, some food commodities have rebounded well. “Because of that, we are seeing in some commodities, some decline in prices,” he said. He informed that crops such as cucumber, iceberg lettuce, pakchoi, and red sweet peppers have already seen reductions in the first two weeks of December, compared to November, adding that Pineapple (MD2 variety) has also recorded a decline.
• The Minister noted that commodities like pumpkin, callaloo, papaya, and watermelon have been fairly stable, meaning no movement in price over the last two weeks. Providing an outlook for price stabilisation, he said the forecasts project that some prices are expected to moderate by mid-January to early February 2025, as production continues to stabilise across the country.
• “Our market analysis, supported by JAMIS (Jamaica Agricultural Marketing Information System) data, suggests that at the farmgate level, vegetable price increases are expected to moderate significantly early in the new year. Fruit prices will continue to see some increases as we go into January. At the supermarket level, we do hope that as the prices come down, it will be passed on to consumers,” he said.

(Source: JIS)

• Mexico's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.00% on Thursday, December 19, 2024, and signaled larger rate cuts could be considered in future meetings given progress on inflation in Latin America's second-largest economy.
• The unanimous decision by the Bank of Mexico's five-member governing board is the fifth rate cut this year since it started lowering borrowing costs from a record high of 11.25% in March.
• "In view of the progress on disinflation, larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings, albeit maintaining a restrictive stance," Banxico, as the bank is known, said in a post-meeting statement.
• Mexico's closely watched core consumer price index, seen as a more reliable measure of price trends as it excludes volatile energy and food prices, fell to 3.58% in the 12 months through November, from 3.80% in October.
• Banxico targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. While both headline and core inflation are still forecast to follow a downward trend, the board raised its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
• The board now sees headline inflation reaching the 3% target in the third quarter of 2026, later than the board's previous guidance of the fourth quarter of 2025.
• After the board's unanimous cut in mid-November, Mexican markets were rattled by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threat of a 25% across-the-board tariff on imports from Mexico. Thursday's statement referenced the Mexican peso's volatility amid "the possibility of measures that could weaken integration with our main trading partner."

(Source: Reuters)

•  Inflation in Trinidad and Tobago has risen slightly in November, according to the Central Statistical Office (CSO). The rate of inflation for November 2024, which measures the percentage change in the All-Items Index for the month of November 2024 over November 2023, amounted to 0.5%.
• This represents an increase from the previous period (October 2024/October 2023) of 0.2%. The inflation rate for the comparative period (November 2023/November 2022) was 1.1%, according to the CSO.
• The All-Items Index calculated from the prices collected for the month of November 2024 was 124.6 points, representing an increase of 0.2 points of 0.2% above the All-Items Index for October 2024, it said.
• The Index for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages increased from 150.8 in October 2024 to 151.6 in November 2024, reflecting an increase of 0.5%. Contributing significantly to this increase was the general upward movement in the prices of tomatoes, fresh carite, Irish potatoes, other chilled or frozen chicken, hot peppers, fresh king fish, pumpkin, curry, celery and garlic.
• However, the full impact of these price increases was offset by the general decreases in the prices of cucumber, carrots, eddoes, table margarine, fresh steak, ripe bananas, soya bean oil, oranges, dasheen and pimento, the CSO noted.
• A further review of the data for November 2024 compared with October 2024 reflected increases in the sub-indices for Clothing and Footwear of 0.2% and Health of 0.1%. This period also showed a decrease in the sub-index for Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco of 0.2%. All other sections remained unchanged, the CSO release added.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• The top business risk of the Trump presidency for heavy-duty equipment maker Komatsu is not the tariffs he has threatened, but Canada's potential retaliatory duties on American-made mining machines, the head of the Japanese company said.
• The view of a global manufacturer flags the possible knock-on impact of Trump's pledge for tariffs on imports from Canada, China and Mexico when he takes office, especially if the targets decide to retaliate with trade barriers on their own.
• The world's second-largest construction machinery company after Caterpillar, earns more than a quarter of its sales from North America and employs about 8,000 staff in the United States.
• The risk of retaliatory tariffs by Canada, the largest export destination for the mining equipment Komatsu makes in the United States, is "my biggest concern" when Trump's second term begins next month, Chief Executive Hiroyuki Ogawa told Reuters.
• "We are an exporter in America," Ogawa said, adding that Komatsu's U.S. exports have surpassed imports by about $1 billion a year since its 2017 acquisition of Milwaukee-based mining machinery maker Joy Global. "We're basing our business on free trade," Ogawa said. "A tariff war could land a one-two punch on us.
• The impact of the threatened tariffs on U.S.-bound components such as sheet metal from China is "not very big" and could be mitigated if necessary, by shifting supply sources elsewhere, such as from Southeast Asia, within two to three months, he added.

(Source: Reuters)

• China is widely expected to leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Friday, a Reuters poll showed, as falling yields, shrinking net interest margins, and a weakening yuan create limits for immediate monetary easing.
• Yield differentials between China and the U.S. hit their widest in 22 years this week, dragging the yuan to its weakest in over a year, despite a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
• While rapid declines in Chinese yields have prompted the central bank to warn against rate risks, a pledge by the Politburo to switch to an "appropriately loose" monetary policy stance next year has heightened market expectations for more easing in coming months.
• The loan prime rate (LPR), normally charged to banks' best clients, is calculated each month after 20 designated commercial banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China (PBOC).
• In a Reuters survey of 27 market watchers conducted this week, all respondents expected both the one-year and five-year LPRs to remain steady. "The central bank has just warned (against interest rate risk), it seems a bit inappropriate to cut interest rates right after that," said a trader at a Chinese bank.
• China's central bank urged financial institutions to guard against interest rate risks when trading in bonds, signalling discomfort over a recent buying frenzy that has helped drive yields sharply lower.

(Source: Reuters)

• Simply Secure Limited, an international business company which offers services that are similar to those provided by tTech, launched a takeover bid for the remaining 30.92 percent of tTech Limited. The offer is valued at $79.10Mn (US$459,912.27) based on the $2.20 takeover price offered to the remaining shareholders, a premium of 10.0% over the last trading price on December 18, 2024.
• Simply Secure had previously acquired 73,229,223 ordinary shares of tTech on July 11 and November 15 at $2.20 from tTech directors Edward “Teddy” Alexander, Enqueue Inc, a St Lucian IBC holding company owned by Norman Abraham Chen, and Auctus Holdings Inc, a St Lucian IBC holding company owned by Gordon Christopher Reckord for a total $160.37Mn( roughly US$1.02Mn).
• The initial purchase brought Simply Secure’s total ownership to 69.08 percent and triggered the mandatory takeover bid required under the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) rules and Jamaican Securities Act.
• However, it is likely that after the takeover bid is completed tTech could be in breach of the JSE rules as it relates to ownership limits. The JSE rules require that at least 100 shareholders own 20 percent of the company and that no shareholder own more than 80 percent of a listed company.
• In such a scenario, the JSE can delist the company. If this materializes, it is likely that tTech would be liable to pay Tax Administration Jamaica for the tax remission tTech would have enjoyed so far by being listed on the Junior Market. Between 2016 – 2023, tTech enjoyed a total of $40.26 million in tax remissions by being listed on the Junior Market.

(Sources: JSE & tTech Limited)