• Britain's economy slowed sharply in April, reflecting shockwaves from U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of wide-ranging tariffs and a one-off hit from the end of a tax break on property sales, official data showed on Thursday.
• Gross domestic output shrank by a larger-than-expected 0.3% in April from March - the biggest monthly drop since October 2023 and more than the 0.1% fall forecast in a Reuters poll, following 0.2% growth in March.
• Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the GDP numbers were "clearly disappointing". Britain's economy has grown slowly since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the fall in monthly GDP was led by a 0.4% contraction in output from the dominant services sector.
• A big factor in this was a slump in real estate and legal activity in April after the end of a temporary tax break on house purchases, which contributed 0.2 percentage points of the overall 0.3 percentage point fall in output in April. Car makers also reported lower output and exports to both the United States and the European Union.
• Britain's economy had expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, outstripping growth in other countries in the Group of Seven advanced economies and prompting the Bank of England to revise up its full-year growth forecast to 1% last month. However, the BoE revised down its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.25% and said it expected the tariffs to knock 0.3% off British output in three years' time.
• BoE policymakers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week as they are faced with competing forces of stubborn inflation and a relatively sluggish economy, but most economists polled by Reuters expect two more rate cuts this year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Amid heightened costs combined with subdued topline growth, Fosrich Limited (Fosrich) recorded a net loss of $68.60Mn for its first quarter ended March 31, 2025n (Q1 2025), representing a reversal from the 32.99Mn profits in Q1 2024.
• Q1 2025 revenues declined by of 0.8% to $852.91Mn, compared to $859.83Mn in Q1 2024. Despite higher sales volumes, revenue was pressured by a sharp decline in global prices for PVC and solar panels; cost reductions that the company strategically passed on to customers to maintain competitiveness. However, the company could experience a turnaround, as management noted that it has not yet begun to benefit from the recent interest rate reductions. These reductions could potentially boost demand for Fosrich’s products, driven by increased construction activity.
• Cost of sales increased by 16.7%, primarily attributable to ongoing disruptions in the shipping industry, particularly those linked to operational challenges at the Panama Canal. These issues led to substantial delays in the transportation of both finished goods and raw materials, leading to higher logistical and operational costs. In light of higher direct costs and lower revenues, gross margins fell to 35.8%, down from 45.3% in Q1 2024.
• In terms of operating costs, administrative expenses for the quarter amounted to $337.37Mn, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. The increase was primarily driven by higher staff-related expenses resulting from expanded staffing levels, increased travel and vehicle costs, elevated insurance premiums due to higher renewal rates and increased risk exposure, higher security expenses stemming from additional locations, and increased depreciation charges associated with new fixed assets. Consequently, the company recorded an operating loss of $24.37Mn, down from an operating profit of $93.19Mn in Q1 2024.
• Due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding the macroeconomic outlook, namely, increased tariffs, stricter immigration rules, and reduced government aid, FosRich has announced a temporary pause on its plans to expand into the United States (U.S.) market. The company is expected to monitor the global climate and resume its U.S. expansion efforts when conditions become more favourable.
• Despite this setback, FosRich remains committed to pursuing growth opportunities within its existing markets. The FosRich Superstore and Corporate Offices are on track for completion in Q3 2025. This development is expected to enhance the company's operational capacity and generate additional revenue through lease income. Furthermore, any potential reductions in interest rates could positively influence FosRich by stimulating housing starts, which may, in turn, increase demand for its products and services.
• Notwithstanding its earnings performance, Fosrich’s stock price has increased by 10.7% year-to-date, closing at $2.59 on June 11, 2025. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 6.8x, which is higher than the Junior Market Distribution Sector’s average of 3.8x.

(Sources: FosRich Financial & NCBCM Research)

• Kingston Wharves Limited (KW) has made the first payment on its planned multi-level car park, pushing ahead with infrastructure upgrades as vehicle transshipment volumes continue to climb.
• The new facility, which has been in the works for some time, comes on the back of record volumes in the company’s automotive segment, with more than 170,000 vehicles handled last year, a figure that’s expected to grow as Kingston Wharves opens new lanes, including incoming shipments from India.
• The three-storey car park, which will come in at a price tag of US$15Mn, is just one piece of a broader investment programme now reshaping Kingston Wharves’ operations. The company recently wrapped up a US$30Mn redevelopment of Berth 7, which expanded the port’s capacity by 25% to handle one million TEUs^[1] in container operations and brought a new warehouse online near the Tinson Pen corridor, an area now being eyed by the government for future logistics development.
• At the same time, Kingston Wharves is preparing for what it calls its “next phase,” which includes acquiring businesses across the Caribbean and Central America to grow its logistics footprint and diversify revenue beyond shipping.
• While Kingston remains at its core, the company is exploring additional warehousing options along the north coast and is continuing to roll out new digital tools to improve tracking, automation, and customer experience.
• KWL’s stock price has decreased by 21.0% year-to-date, closing at $26.00 on June 11, 2025. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/E) ratio of 13.8x, which is below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector’s average of 18.3x.

(Sources: Loop News and NCBCM Research)

^[1] In shipping, a TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) measures container capacity. By increasing TEU capacity, a company like Kingston Wharves can handle more cargo, attract more shipping lines, and boost trade activity through expanded terminal and logistics infrastructure.

• Trade and economic development ministers from the 15-member Caribbean Community (Caricom) began a two-day meeting in Trinidad and Tobago against the background of many trade-related challenges facing the region, and in a geopolitical environment which is changing rapidly.
• Caricom Secretary General Dr Carla Barnett, addressing the 60th meeting of the Council of Trade and Economic Development (COTED), said the recent tariff shocks are a stark reminder of the need to diversify the region's trade and economic relations.
• 'We must redouble our efforts to deepen existing and explore new markets and develop new partnerships, if the region is to advance its goals of economic growth and sustainable development,' she said.
• U.S. President Donald Trump has implemented a series of trade tariffs on countries worldwide, including the Caribbean, in a move economists and other traders say is designed to dismantle much of the architecture of the global economy and trigger broader trade wars. In the case of the Caribbean, Trump announced a 10% tariff on most regional countries, while in the case of Guyana, the tariff is as high as 38%.
• Barnett told the conference that, as such, focused attention must be placed on work to address the way forward in trade relations with the United States, the bilateral negotiations with Colombia, and the outstanding Certification of the Belize-El Salvador Partial Scope Agreement. 'Equally, we need to promote regional production and expand intraregional trade by updating policies and practices to support entrepreneurship and make trade and business development easier. We also have an imperative to address the impediments to trade and remove long-standing issues of 'non-compliance' from the agenda.'

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• The first crude cargo from Guyana's fourth oil production facility, which arrived in the country in April and is being installed, is set to be exported between late August and early September, the government said on Tuesday, June 10, 2025.
• A consortium of U.S. companies, namely, Exxon Mobil, Hess and China's CNOOC, controls all crude and gas output in Guyana. Each party individually exports its share of production, and the government is also entitled to a share of oil profits.
• The floating facility, built by SBM Offshore, named One Guyana, is expected to begin producing in the coming months, expanding the consortium's output capacity to more than 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), the companies have said. One Guyana will produce crude and associated gas at the Exxon group's Yellowtail and Redtail offshore fields.
• The first load of Guyana's new crude grade, called "Golden Arrowhead," will be of 1 million barrels, according to three trading sources with knowledge of the offer. The oil is expected to be the country's lightest with 36.5 API^[1] degrees of density and 0.25% of sulphur content, according to an assay seen by Reuters, making it easier to refine by non-complex facilities.
• Since beginning crude exporting in early 2020, the burgeoning oil nation has emerged as the fifth largest Latin American crude exporter after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. Guyana's oil exports rose 54% in 2024 to some 582,000 bpd, fueled by European refiners' demand for easy-to-process sweet crudes, according to shipping data. Furthermore, the output capacity in the country is expected to reach 1.7 million bpd by 2030.

(Source: Reuters)

^[1] The API (American Petroleum Institute) gravity, a measure of how heavy or light the petroleum is compared to water. 36.5 API degrees suggests the oil is relatively light, which is generally desirable because lighter oils are easier to refine into fuels like gasoline and kerosene. Further, Sulfur content affects the quality and environmental impact of the fuel; lower sulfur levels are preferred to reduce emissions and meet environmental regulations. 0.25% sulfur is considered low, making the oil cleaner-burning compared to higher sulfur crude oils.

• British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced on Wednesday, June 11, 2025, a focus on increased spending in health, defence, and infrastructure projects. The initiative aims to stimulate economic growth and revitalise the Labour government's promise of a brighter future to an increasingly disillusioned electorate.
• Keen to promote increased investments in housing, transport and cleaner energy projects, Reeves aimed to demonstrate that the Labour government was delivering on its plan for change. However, with more money going to health and defence, day-to-day spending in other areas of government will face budget constraints. Importantly, Reeves set the overall total for spending in an October budget, financing her plan with the biggest tax rise in a generation, and looser fiscal rules making it easier for her to borrow for long-term investments.
• Nonetheless, her choices must start paying off quickly if Labour is to achieve its goals of boosting Britain's growth rate and improving the quality of overstretched public services. She said the government's departmental budgets would grow by 2.3% a year in real terms, offering a further £190Bn (US$257Bn) for day-to-day spending on public services compared with the previous Conservative government's plans.
• Total spending over the period will exceed £2Tn, though much of the money has been front-loaded. Reeves' 2.3% figure refers to average annual spending growth since 2023-24, while after 2025-26 - the period covered by the spending review - real-terms growth slows to 1.5%.
• Departments with above-average spending settlements include defence, where spending will rise 3.6% a year in real terms if 2023-24 is used as the baseline, and the health service, which accounts for nearly 40% of day-to-day government spending and got a 2.8% rise. Most areas of government will see at least some real-terms increase, including a 2.3% annual rise in policing resources.
• However, Britain's foreign ministry will see a 5% annual fall, reflecting an earlier decision to curb foreign aid funding, and interior ministry functions, excluding policing, will see a 4.5% annual cut, which the government hopes to fund in part through a cheaper system for handling asylum seekers. Furthermore, all government departments will be expected to deliver at least 5% efficiency savings, including at least a 15% reduction in administrative costs.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in May as cheaper gasoline partially offset higher rents, but inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on the back of the Trump administration's import tariffs.
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in April, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) reported on June 11, 2025. The monthly increase was slightly below economists' expectations, as those surveyed by Reuters and Dow Jones had predicted a 0.2% rise in the CPI. In the 12 months through May, annual CPI advanced 2.4% after gaining 2.3% in April.
• A 0.3% increase in the cost of shelter, mostly rents, was the main driver for the rise in the CPI. The ongoing decline in energy prices also helped offset some of the increases. Furthermore, several other important items, namely vehicles and apparel prices, expected to show tariff-related jumps, posted declines.
• Excluding food and energy, the core CPI came in respectively at 0.1% and 2.8%, compared with forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%. Officials consider core a better measure of long-term trends, with several expressing concerns recently over the impact that tariffs would have on inflation.
• The Federal Reserve (Fed), however, tracks different inflation gauges, including the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, for its 2% target. Economists estimated core PCE inflation rose 0.2% in May after edging up 0.1% in April. That would raise the annual increase in core inflation to 2.6% from 2.5% in April.
• In addition to pre-tariff inventory levels, economists suggest that the uncertain demand environment likely caused some businesses to hesitate before raising prices. They anticipate that inflation will accelerate from June onward and continue into the second half of the year, with companies likely increasing prices gradually to prevent sudden price shocks for consumers and to avoid drawing the White House's scrutiny.

(Sources: Reuters & CNBC)

• Medical Disposables & Supplies Limited (MDS) reported a net loss of $201.83Mn for the twelve-month period ended March 2025, marking the second consecutive year of losses. The sustained underperformance was largely driven by elevated operating expenses, which continued to constrain the company’s ability to convert revenue growth into profitability.
• During the financial year, revenue grew modestly by 4.7% to $3.88Bn, up from $3.71Bn in the previous year. Stronger performance in the second half of the year, underpinned by improved sell-through across the pharmaceutical, medical, and consumer divisions, accounted for the growth in MDS’ topline.
• Cost of sales rose slightly by 0.4%, increasing at a much slower pace than revenue. This reflected the absence of a large inventory write-down seen in the prior year, which had stemmed from slow-moving and near-dated stock. Consequently, gross profit improved by 22.8%. However, when adjusted for non-recurring effects, gross profit from core operations actually declined, primarily due to temporary sales disruptions at a subsidiary undergoing rationalisation, including changes in supplier relationships.
• Operating expenses surged by $138.92Mn (15.62%), largely due to a one-off provision totaling $144Mn within Cornwall Enterprises, a subsidiary. This included $18Mn for slow-moving inventory and $126Mn for related-party balances. This was the primary driver of the weaker earnings.
• Other contributors to the rise in costs included: Emergency repair expenses and hurricane preparedness measures (Hurricane Beryl), higher insurance premiums, costs related to new business acquisitions, increased staff turnover and strategic investments in sales and merchandising staff to drive distribution growth. That said, these increases were partially offset by improved cost discipline in marketing and promotional spending.
• Looking ahead, MDS has begun diversifying its product mix and expanding regionally. The company has entered the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space by becoming a non-exclusive distributor of True Pet Food in Jamaica. It is also establishing MDS Cayman, a new subsidiary aimed at distributing pharmaceutical and medical supplies across the Cayman Islands and the broader Caribbean, signaling a push toward new markets and revenue streams.
• Despite the softer earnings, MDS’s stock price has declined by 18.2% year-to-date, closing at $1.35 as at Tuesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.59x, which is lower than the Junior Market Health Sector’s average of 1.94x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Dolla Financial Services Limited (DOLLA) announced that it received notice of Widebase Limited (Widebase) acquiring an additional 7.00% stake in the company, increasing its total ownership to 21.00%.
• The completion of this transaction is subject to regulatory approval from the Bank of Jamaica, the governing authority for micro-credit institutions, for Widebase to own 20.0% or more of Dolla.
• As at March 2025, only Dequity Capital Management Limited (20.0%), FirstRock Private Equity Limited (16.0%), Supreme Ventures Limited (15.0%), and Mayberry Jamaican Equities held a greater percentage of total units than Widebase Limited.
• Widebase is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mayberry Group Limited (MGL), which also owns Mayberry Jamaican Equities. As a result, MGL could potentially control 32.6% of the total units.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Economic growth in Barbados is set to slow in 2025, primarily due to the United States (U.S.) trade policy and a related global economic slowdown. Real GDP is forecasted to expand by 1.7% in 2025 according to Fitch Solutions, moderating from an estimated 4.0% growth rate in 2024. This marks a downward revision from Fitch’s previous 2025 forecast of 2.5%.
• In 2025, Barbados is expected to be significantly impacted by U.S import tariffs. Almost a fifth of the country's goods exports were sent to the U.S. in 2024, with the largest categories, including beverages (mainly rum), jewellery and various light-manufacturing products such as trailers. These products will lose some competitiveness in the U.S. market due to the 10% baseline tariffs. Furthermore, real GDP growth in the U.S. is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025, weakening demand for imported goods generally.
• More importantly, lower tourism arrivals will be the main drag on economic growth due to the negative impact on export receipts and the knock-on effect on private consumption and investment. Although exempt from U.S. tariffs, tourism receipts in Barbados will be negatively affected by U.S. trade policy. A tariff-induced economic slowdown in the U.S. and other tourism source markets will weaken arrivals in Barbados.
• Barbados has increased its reliance on US tourists in recent years as airline passenger capacity between the two countries doubled over the past decade. U.S. tourists typically make up a third of total arrivals and accounted for three-quarters of the growth in tourism arrivals in 2024. The U.K., Canada and the EU account for another 50% of tourists, and Fitch forecasts slower economic growth in all these markets in 2025.
• Overall, services exports (mainly tourism) are expected to contract by 2.0% in real terms in 2025, the first decline since the Covid-19 pandemic. Consequently, weakness in the tourism sector will drag on private consumption and investment growth in the wider economy as the sector accounts for around 15% of GDP and 20% of employment (directly and indirectly).

(Source: Fitch Connect)