• The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell sharply, cementing economists' expectations that trade likely accounted for much of an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the second quarter.
• While the unexpected contraction reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday prompted economists to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for the last quarter, the steep decline in imports flagged slowing domestic demand against the backdrop of a softening labour market.
• That was reinforced by other data showing a decrease in job openings and hiring in June, as well as deterioration in consumers' perceptions of current employment availability. The reports dovetailed with the high number of people receiving unemployment checks.
• Economists say trade policy uncertainty, especially as to where President Donald Trump's tariff levels will eventually settle, has created an environment that is not conducive for businesses to make long-term plans. Imports surged in the first quarter as businesses rushed to beat higher prices ahead of the duties, contributing to the first decline in GDP in three years.
• The Trump administration has announced several trade deals, which economists said could help to ease the uncertainty. "The data suggest the second-quarter GDP report will have a solid headline, but weak details," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "The economy was on uneven, wobbly footing in the second quarter."
• The government is scheduled to publish its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. A Reuters survey of economists, conducted before the release of the trade data, forecast that GDP rebounded at a 2.4% rate in the April-June period after contracting at a 0.5% pace in the first three months of this year.

S(Source: Reuters)

• Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $227.89Mn (+124.2%) for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q2 2025), up from $101.65Mn in Q2 2024.
• The Q2 2025 increase came amid the strong performance of its subsidiary, Widebase Limited, which contributed $1.58Bn in share of profit of joint venture. MGL’s joint venture refers to a 50.0% stake in Cherry Hills Development Limited – a Jamaican real estate company. However, these gains were overrun by heavy operating losses that featured higher unrealised losses, net interest expenses and operating expenses.
• Net unrealised losses on investment in associates totalled $943.70Mn – a $1.65Bn swing from the $0.71Bn unrealised gains in Q2 2024. This was driven by reductions in the market price of several key stocks in the Group’s portfolio. Similarly, the group had a $0.33Bn unrealised loss on financial instruments and a $0.32Bn loss on investment properties.
• Interest Income grew by 31.3% to $588.72Mn, but was outweighed by a 67.2% increase in interest expenses to $935.08Mn. Consequently, Net Interest Expense grew from $110.73Mn to $346.36Mn. This reflected higher interest costs due to the increase in securities sold under repurchase agreements and borrowings, which outstripped growth in interest income from margin loans and higher income earned on the company’s bond portfolio. Dividend income also fell by 50.6% for the quarter, based on dividends declared by investees.
• Operating expenses also rose to $558.76Mn, a 12.4% increase, primarily due to higher administrative costs.
• While shareholders’ profit totalled $227.89Mn, the group incurred $448.64Mn losses as $676.52Mn net losses were attributed to non-controlling interests. MGL’s Q2 2025 performance, when added to its Q1 2025 results, culminated in a net loss attributable to shareholders of $258.46Mn for the six months ended June 30, 2025 (H1 2025) as unfavourable market conditions continue to put pressure on the group’s bottom line. Nonetheless, the H1 2025 results are an improvement on the loss of $705.81Mn recorded for H1 2024.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, MGL’s stock price closed at J$7.18, reflecting a 24.2% year-to-date decline. At this price, MGL trades at a P/B of 0.57x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.16x.

(Sources: MGL Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• For the third quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q3 2025), Jamaican Teas Limited’s (JAMT’s) earnings cooled by 8.9% to $77.94Mn, down from $85.57Mn for Q3 2024. The decline in earnings came as direct and operating costs grew faster than revenues.
• Q3 2025 revenues increased by $122.09Mn, or 15.8% to $893.89Mn. The revenue growth was supported by an 18.0% increase across JAMT’s Manufacturing division, an 11.0% increase in its Retail Division and proceeds from a real estate sale.
• The company’s investment division also performed well, benefitting from unrealised gains in its overseas investments, particularly price appreciation from the numerous stocks listed in the U.S. However, these unrealised gains were partly offset by price declines for its local holdings.
• Meanwhile, direct expenses rose 18.6% to $709.44Mn, driven by a shift toward faster-growing but lower-margin products. As a result, gross profits improved by 6.1% but gross profit margins fell from 22.5% to 20.6%.
• Overhead costs also increased significantly to $143.97Mn (+25.2%), primarily due to higher wages, salaries, overseas travel, local advertising, and depreciation. There was also a loss before deferred tax of $92.49Mn, related to the sale of the Bell Road factory in March 2024.
• Consequently, operating profits fell by 18.5% to $116.00Mn, and the company’s operating margin fell from 18.5% to 12.9% in Q3 2025. That said, both finance costs and taxation fell by 9.1% and 44.2%, respectively.
• Similar to Q3, JAMT was profitable for the nine months ending June 30, 2025 (9M 2025). It recorded a net profit of $68.54Mn, down from $171.84Mn 9M 2024. However, management’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic as it anticipates that the fortunes of several of its largest local holdings will improve and that this will positively affect future investment income.
• That said, the 10.0% baseline tariffs are set to pose headwinds to its U.S. exports in the future. However, the company has maintained more intensive management of its export accounts around the eastern Caribbean, which has produced increases in shipping volumes of at least 10% in most of its largest accounts.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, JAMT shares stooda at J$2.35, reflecting a 4.4% increase year-to-date. JAMT currently trades at a P/E of 37.3x, which is above the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector Average of 19.97x

(Sources: JAMT Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Mexican state energy company Pemex on Monday reported a net profit of 59.52Bn pesos (US$3.17Bn) for the second quarter of this year, helped largely by a more favourable exchange rate. Like most of its Latin American peers, Pemex is essentially a dollar-denominated state-owned company, with the vast majority of its spending and revenue denominated in dollars.
• In the second quarter of last year, Pemex made a net loss of 273.33Bn pesos after the Mexican peso lost value against the dollar. The company also reported a net loss of 43.30Bn pesos in the first quarter of this year.
• In a stock exchange filing, Pemex also reported that revenues fell 4.4% during the second quarter of this year to 391.62Bn pesos, which is attributed to lower crude oil sales and lower prices for petroleum products like gasoline and diesel. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) were 76.00Bn pesos for the quarter.
• The world's most indebted energy company, Pemex, reported a financial debt of $98.8Bn at the end of the quarter, and it owes providers $22.79Bn. As one of Mexico's largest companies and contributors to state coffers, Pemex received 94Bn pesos in government support and paid providers more than 230Bn pesos.
• Crude oil and condensate production with partners for the quarter averaged 1.64Mn barrels per day, while natural gas production averaged 3.59Bn cubic feet per day. Company executives told investors in a call after the quarterly results were published that Pemex was still seeking to increase crude oil production to the government's goal of 1.8Mn barrels per day.
• To do so, the company would rely on so-called mixed contracts that would be offered to private companies, as well as on continued government support, the executives said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Informal employment in the Dominican Republic accounts for approximately 54.7%, according to the Regional Competitive Bulletin published on Wednesday by the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise (Cohep).
• The bulletin also states that Honduras ranks second in Central America, with the highest informal employment rate, at 82.6%, behind only Guatemala. The report reveals that Guatemala tops the list with an informality rate of 83.2%, followed by Honduras. In contrast, countries such as Costa Rica (37.4%) and the Dominican Republic (54.7%) have considerably lower levels.
• Meanwhile, El Salvador has an informality rate of 66.5%, Nicaragua 63.0%, and Panama 58.7%, the document detailed. Informal employment remains one of the main obstacles to productivity in the region, the bulletin notes, while warning that millions of workers are forced to resort to this type of employment due to the lack of opportunities in the formal economy.
• This situation exacerbates the levels of vulnerability and precariousness associated with employment, and restricts access to fundamental rights, including social protection, decent working conditions, and job security.
• In countries like Honduras and Guatemala, 8 out of 10 workers are in the informal sector. This doesn’t happen by choice; it happens due to a lack of real opportunities, and changing this reality must be a priority in our public policies, noted Alejandro Kaffati, Economic Policy Officer at Cohep, the leading private sector umbrella organisation in Honduras.
• In 2024, Central America and the Dominican Republic reached a combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $498Bn, representing a growth of 2.8%, according to data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• Kaffati also emphasised that countries like Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua contributed only between 4% and 7% of the region’s total GDP, which, in his opinion, “forces” countries to focus on how to boost economies from within. In addition to the individual impact, COHEP warns that informality affects the entire economy, reducing public revenues, limiting the state’s ability to address social needs, and limiting the sustainability of formal businesses.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The United States and European Union have agreed on a trade deal, ending a months-long standoff between two of the world's biggest economic partners. After make-or-break negotiations between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland, the pair agreed to US tariff on all EU goods of 15%.
• That is half the 30% import tax rate Trump had threatened to implement starting on Friday. He said the 27-member bloc would open its markets to US exporters with zero per cent tariffs on certain products.
• Von der Leyen also hailed the deal, saying it would bring stability for both allies, who together account for almost a third of global trade. Sunday's agreement was announced after private talks between Trump and Von der Leyen at his Turnberry golf course in South Ayrshire.
• The commission has the mandate to negotiate trade deals for the entire bloc - but it still requires approval by EU member states, whose ambassadors will meet on Monday for a debrief from the commission.
• Trump said the EU would boost its investment in the US by US$600.0Bn (£446.0Bn), including American military equipment, and spend $750bn on energy. That investment over the next three years in American liquified natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels would, von der Leyen said, help reduce European reliance on Russian power sources.
• Some goods will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals and some agricultural products. A separate deal on semiconductors may be announced soon.
• One key area where a deal is yet to be struck is alcohol, with France and the Netherlands in particular seeking tariff exemptions for their respective wine and beer industries. However, a 50% US tariff Trump has implemented on steel and aluminium globally would stay in place, he said.

(Source: BBC)

• The Bank of Japan is set to hold off raising interest rates on Thursday but may offer a less gloomy view on the outlook after Tokyo's trade agreement with the U.S. last week, signalling rate hikes may resume later this year.
• Receding global trade tensions following Sunday's agreement between the U.S. and the European Union add relief for BoJ policymakers on the outlook of Japan's export-heavy economy. However, the BoJ is likely to warn of lingering uncertainty on how U.S. tariffs affect business activity with the hit to exports seen intensifying later this year, analysts say.
• "It's very big progress that reduces uncertainty for Japan's economy - but obviously, some uncertainty remains," BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said last week on the Japan-U.S. trade deal. Uchida noted questions around how soon Washington strikes trade deals with other countries, how the tariffs affect domestic and global economies and how long it could take for the tariffs' effects to be seen in hard data.
• At the two-day meeting ending on Thursday, the BoJ is widely expected to keep short-term interest rates steady at 0.5%. Markets are focusing on the bank's quarterly outlook report and Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting news conference for clues on the timing of the next rate hike.
• In the quarterly report, the BoJ is likely to revise up this fiscal year's inflation forecast due to persistent rises in rice and other food costs, sources have told Reuters. The BoJ may also tweak its current view that risks to the price outlook were skewed to the downside, and offer a less gloomy view on the economy compared with the current one focused on tariff-induced risks, according to separate sources.
• The board is likely to maintain its view that inflation will durably hit its 2% target in the latter half of its three-year projection period running through fiscal 2027, they said. In current projections made on May 1, the BoJ projects core consumer inflation to hit 2.2% in fiscal 2025, before slowing to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

(Source: Reuters)

• Net Remittance Inflows to Jamaica increased by 5.9% in May 2025 year-over-year, rising from US$270.34Mn to US$286.32Mn. The increase was primarily due to a US$16.06Mn (5.6%) increase in total remittance inflows, reaching US$303.49Mn. However, this was marginally offset by a 0.5% rise in remittance outflows.
• With the 5.9% May increase, net remittances for the first five months of the 2025 calendar year (5M 2025) increased by 3.6% to US$1.33Bn compared to US$1.28Bn for 5M 2024. The 5M 2025 outturn was driven by a 3.4% increase in total remittance inflows of US$1.42Bn but was tempered by a 3.6% increase in remittance outflows totalling US$96.65Mn.
• Amid the increase, the U.S. remains the largest source market for remittance flows to Jamaica. May 2025 Remittances from the U.S. accounted for 68.2% of total flows, down from the 68.7% recorded for May 2024. Other source countries that contributed a notable share of remittances for the month were the United Kingdom (11.5%), followed by Canada (9.6%, and the Cayman Islands (6.3%).
• Looking ahead, the uncertainties around the Trump administration's trade, immigration, and other policy changes could affect remittance inflows if they result in a slowdown in the US economy. Recently, the administration announced a 1.0% excise tax on cash-based remittance, which remittance firms locally are bracing for. Still, the firms expect little fallout as strong digital adoption by consumers and years of investment in alternative remittance channels could act as key buffers.

(Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Chief of Operations for the Caribbean Region, Karisa Ribeiro, says the Boosting Innovation, Growth and Entrepreneurship Ecosystems (BIGEE) Programme remains instrumental in driving the expansion of several micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) across Jamaica.
• During the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce MSME Linkages Day event at the University of Technology (UTech) in St. Andrew, Ms. Ribeiro provided an update on the programme noting that over 1,400 MSMEs and 50 ecosystem institutions have received direct assistance, to date, under the programme; the beneficiary MSMEs recorded an average of 20 per cent increase in sales.
• Ribeiro said coordinated policies, targeted support, and sustained investment are vital to unlocking the MSME sector’s full potential and driving inclusive economic growth. A flagship initiative of the Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ), BIGEE is aimed at empowering MSMEs and promoting innovation in Jamaica.
• The five-year programme, which commenced in September 2020, is funded through a US$25.0Mn IDB loan and a US$8.2Mn grant from the European Union (EU). It is intended to strengthen Jamaica’s entrepreneurial ecosystem and support MSMEs through funding, technical assistance, and mentorship.
• She further emphasised that beyond the BIGEE Programme, the IDB Group remains committed to fostering an enabling environment that equips businesses of all sizes with the tools they need to thrive.

(Source: JIS)

• Puerto Rico is ending its talks to negotiate a $20Bn liquefied natural gas (LNG) contract with New Fortress Energy (NFE). New Fortress was unwilling to discuss changes to the contract and missed a key deadline, the report said, citing Osvaldo Linares, president of Recoms Group, the island's third-party procurement office.
• The U.S. energy firm has been struggling to secure LNG for its power-generation operations on long-term agreements. Currently, the company is trying to raise cash and improve its finances by taking on partners for its primary businesses and selling some assets following its deferral of a shareholder dividend last year.
• Earlier this month, Bloomberg News reported Puerto Rico's financial watchdog had halted the supply deal over monopoly concerns. As a result of the talks ending, Puerto Rico's government is now in discussions with four other companies to provide LNG to the island under 30-day emergency contracts.
• Osvaldo Linares told Bloomberg his agency has sent a formal communication to Puerto Rico's oversight board saying negotiations had ended. A spokesperson for the Financial Oversight and Management Board of Puerto Rico confirmed receipt of the letter.
• The letter was consistent with the watchdog's observations that neither the third-party procurement office nor the government was willing to defend the terms of the contract, which had been initially submitted for review in June, the spokesperson added.

(Source: Reuters)