• According to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), Jamaica's Net International Reserves (NIR) reached a record high of US$5.79Bn at the end of March 2025, reflecting a 126% increase compared to March 2024.
• This growth in the NIR was primarily due to an 11.4% rise (US$594.46Mn) in total foreign assets, coupled with a 56.8% decrease (US$53.70Mn) in foreign liabilities.
• The increase in foreign assets was largely driven by a 26.4% growth in Securities (US$422.12Mn) and a 309.3% rise in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), totaling US$179.80Mn. However, there was a slight decline of US$7.61Mn (0.2%) in Currency & Deposits.
• Jamaica’s March 2025 NIR remains relatively high, equating to 30.7 weeks of goods & services imports (26.4 weeks at the end of March 2024). At this level, the NIR is more than 2,5 times the international benchmark of 12 weeks of imports and should provide a solid buffer in the case of a major shock.
• Maintaining adequate reserves is one of the key pillars of underwriting and ensuring macroeconomic stability. The NIR reflects the difference between gross reserves and the country’s IMF loan debts. Gross reserves measure the total value of foreign exchange and monetary gold reserves, special drawing rights, IMF reserve positions, and other assets denominated in dollars.

 (Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)

• The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining has reiterated its commitment to the agricultural sector, with the allocation of $1.2Bn to the Production and Productivity Programme, to provide direct support to farmers.
• Portfolio Minister, Hon. Floyd Green, pointed out that the nation’s farmers are particularly deserving of support, following the many devastating situations the sector endured in 2024. He highlighted that last year began with a drought, and when farmers were expecting rain, Hurricane Beryl ravaged sections of southern Jamaica. This was followed by Tropical Storm Rafael in November and incessant rain.  
• To further bolster the resilience of the agricultural sector, the Minister said through the Jamaica Agricultural Commodities Regulatory Authority (JACRA), at least 10,000 new coffee seedlings will be distributed in the coming months, so coffee farmers can expand their yields and replace ageing crops.
• In addition to coffee, Minister Green said focus will be placed on various crops, including Irish potato, ginger, cassava, dasheen and lime. This will be accomplished through the Production and Productivity Programme.

(Source: JIS)

• Vice-President of Guyana, Dr Bharrat Jagdeo and Finance Minister Dr Ashni Singh, along with Central Bank Governor, Dr Gobind Ganga, on Monday April 7, 2025, met with the Chief Executive Officers and other representatives of commercial banks to discuss recent developments in the banking system, specifically concerning the market for foreign exchange.
• According to a press release, at the meeting, authorities noted the continued availability of adequate levels of foreign currency in the financial system as a whole to meet ongoing demand, despite occasional timing differences. These timing differences have resulted in some delays being encountered in the settlement of orders for foreign currency from time to time at some commercial banks.
• To ensure that pending requests for foreign currency are met on time, the decision was taken that a sum of US$100Mn will be injected into the market and distributed across all commercial banks.
• The injection is expected to provide immediate relief to the system in meeting the pending demand for foreign currency, while the temporary timing mismatches unwind themselves.
• Meanwhile, the government of Guayana remains closely engaged with the private sector, including the commercial banks, in the interest of ensuring that the market continues to function efficiently.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• United States’ (U.S.) Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said China poses an ongoing threat to the Panama Canal, but that together, the U.S. and Panama will keep the key waterway secure.
• Speaking at a ribbon cutting for a new US-financed dock at the Vasco Nuñez de Balboa Naval Base after a meeting with Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino, Hegseth said the U.S. will not allow China or any other country to threaten the canal's operations. "To this end, the United States and Panama have done more in recent weeks to strengthen our defence and security cooperation than we have in decades," he said.
• Hegseth alluded to ports at either end of the canal that are controlled by a Hong Kong consortium, which is in the process of selling its controlling stake to another consortium, including BlackRock Inc.
• "China-based companies continue to control critical infrastructure in the canal area," Hegseth said. "That gives China the potential to conduct surveillance activities across Panama. This makes Panama and the United States less secure, less prosperous and less sovereign. And as President Donald Trump has pointed out, that situation is not acceptable."
• Hegseth met with Mulino for two hours on Tuesday (March 8, 2025) morning before heading to the naval base that previously had been the US Rodman Naval Station. The visit comes amid tensions over U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated assertions that the United States is being overcharged to use the Panama Canal and that China has influence over its operations. Panama has denied those allegations.
• The China concern was provoked by the Hong Kong consortium holding a 25-year lease on ports at either end of the canal. The Panamanian government announced that the lease was being audited and, late on Monday, concluded that there were irregularities.
• The Hong Kong consortium, however, had already announced that CK Hutchison would be selling its controlling stake in the ports to a consortium including BlackRock Inc., effectively putting the ports under American control once the sale is complete.

(Source: Yahoo News)

• Beijing, feeling boxed into a corner by the United States' intensifying tariff assault on China and any country that buys or assembles Chinese goods, is bracing for an economic war of attrition.
• Washington last week imposed import tariffs of at least 10% on almost the entire world, and much higher levies on countries such as Vietnam, where Chinese factories have been shifting production. This drew retaliation from China, followed by new threats of escalation from U.S. President Donald Trump.
• "Whoever surrenders first becomes the victim," said a Chinese policy adviser, asking for anonymity due to the topic's sensitivity. "It’s a matter of who can hold out longer."
• China has no great options, though. It will court other markets in Asia, Europe and the rest of the world, but this may not be much of an escape valve. Other countries have much smaller markets than the U.S., and local economies are also taking a hit from the tariffs. Many are also wary of allowing cheaper Chinese products in.
• Domestically, a currency devaluation would be the simplest way to cushion the tariffs' impact but that could trigger capital outflows, while also alienating trade partners China may try to court. China has so far allowed very limited yuan depreciation. More subsidies, export tax rebates or other forms of stimulus could be on the cards, but this also risks exacerbating industrial overcapacity and fueling more deflationary pressures.
• Analysts have advocated for years for policies that would boost domestic demand. However, despite Beijing's declarations, little has been done to meaningfully increase household consumption, given that the bold policy shifts that would be required could prove disruptive to the manufacturing sector in the short term.
• Hitting back with its own tariffs and export controls may not be very effective, given China ships to the U.S. about three times as much in goods than around US$160.0Bn it imports, but it may be the only option if Beijing believes it has a higher pain threshold than Washington has.
• So far China has responded to last week's additional 34% U.S. tariffs with a similar blanket counter-levy. As Trump threatened escalation with an extra 50% hike, Beijing vowed to "fight to the end". "China cannot inflict as much pain on the U.S. as it receives, since it runs the big trade surplus and, rare earths aside, still has more to lose from export controls," said Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.

(Source: Reuters)

• As global markets plunge in the aftermath of the Trump administration’s sweeping new tariff plan and worries about a potential recession rise, investors are thinking the Federal Reserve may now move faster to cut interest rates.
• The shift has to do with the changing outlook for growth in the United States, according to analysts. While new tariffs could exacerbate inflation in the short term, it’s possible that the Fed may support the economy by lowering interest rates rather than keeping rates restrictive to combat elevated price pressures. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will not rush any policy moves: “It feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry. We’re going to have to wait and see how this plays out before we start to make adjustments.”
• But the outlook remains fluid. “A tariff-induced economic downturn may be enough” to prompt the Fed to cut despite elevated inflation, explains Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Investment Management. That would be a departure from the Fed’s typical inflation playbook, which calls for restrictive policy to temper price pressures.
• Treasury yields have been falling alongside stocks as investors reduce their expectations for growth down the line, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling below 4% on Friday. “The market is clearly more concerned with economic growth than they are with inflation from the tariffs,” says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “I’m sure the Fed would share that concern.”
• Bond futures markets are pricing in an 85% chance of more than three rate cuts before the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s up from expectations of between one and two cuts before the tariff announcement. If the Fed cuts four times, it would bring the target federal-funds rate down to a range of 3.25%-3.50%—2 full percentage points lower than its peak last year.
• Traders now see a roughly 30% chance that the central bank cuts rates at its May meeting, compared with the 22% odds given on Thursday. Futures trading was volatile on Friday, with odds of a May cut rising as high as 40% in the early afternoon. A June cut remains seen as most likely, given odds of 70%.

(Source: Morningstar)

• Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, says the Government is actively engaging with the United States (US) Trade Representative and other relevant authorities “to seek urgent clarification” on the new US tariff regime. He highlighted that the United States Government recently imposed a 10 per cent baseline tariff on imports from all countries, introducing a significant global trade policy shift.
• Dr. Holness informed that Jamaica, like other CARICOM nations, has traded with the US under the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), which provides non-reciprocal duty-free access for a wide range of products to the US market.
• The government is awaiting formal notification on the implementation of the new tariffs and whether they will override existing CBI provisions. In the meantime, it is conducting a technical assessment with relevant ministries to understand the tariffs' scope and impact on Jamaica's trade.
• He also added that the Government will continue to advocate for manufacturers and exporters to ensure their interests are protected in any new global trade architecture.
• The Administration will continue working to ensure the country secures its economic independence, even as it remains alert and responsive to evolving global trade dynamics that affect manufacturers and exporters. He also encouraged them to explore new opportunities, assuring them that the Government will collaborate with them.

(Source: JIS)

• The Government of Jamaica has officially signed a landmark CARICOM agreement that will allow groups of Member States to advance deeper regional cooperation and economic integration, even if others are not yet ready to participate.
• Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator Kamina Johnson Smith, signed the Protocol to Amend the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas, which governs the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME).
• The Protocol will provide CARICOM with a practical tool to move forward, even when consensus is not immediate, by allowing three or more Member States to deepen cooperation in areas like trade and investment, while keeping the door open for others to join initiatives when ready.
• The agreement amends the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas, replacing Article 50 on Accelerated Implementation, and is expected to expedite the implementation of the CSME while safeguarding the rights of non-participating states.
• Johnson Smith emphasised that Jamaica played an active role in shaping the protocol, seeing it as a mechanism to strengthen business development and regional economic ties. She also confirmed that Jamaica will not need to pass new legislation or adjust financial commitments to CARICOM for its implementation. The protocol will have provisional effect once all CARICOM member states sign, with full ratification to follow.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean has returned to more stable historical averages since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, according to a new report issued by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
• According to the IDB's new macroeconomic report, the region grew 2.0% in 2024, exceeding initial forecasts of 1.7%, and is expected to grow 2.3% in 2025. The Regional Opportunities Amid Global Shifts report projected that growth rates are insufficient to address the region's pressing socioeconomic needs, including reducing poverty and inequality. Countries in the region should therefore focus on boosting productivity while reducing socioeconomic inequalities and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
• But the IDB acknowledges that amid global shifts, the region needs to embrace a series of reforms to seize growth opportunities and chart a course toward greater prosperity for its citizens. These include capitalising on the realignment of global supply chains, reducing labour informality, while efficiently managing fiscal and monetary policy.
• There are also opportunities to strengthen intraregional integration through trade. Despite shared economic interests, intraregional trade accounts for only 15% of the region's total trade, compared to 55% in Asia and 68% in Europe. The shifting global dynamics have created opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean to attract trade and investment flows, underscoring the urgency of integrating the region more deeply into global value chains.
• Foreign direct investment remains critical to increasing productivity, fostering industrial diversification, and driving growth in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Furthermore, though growth rates have returned to long-term averages, inflation has largely been contained, and many countries have taken steps toward fiscal consolidation; substantial risks remain, These risks include global trade fragmentation, volatility in financial markets, and uncertainty surrounding the global economy.

(Sources: Trinidad Express Newspaper & IDB)

• The imposition of a 10% tariff on the Dominican Republic announced by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, represents significant changes that will have direct and indirect impacts at the global and bilateral levels. The higher prices may negatively affect demand (exports) in the United States, said the American Chamber of Commerce of the Dominican Republic (AmchamDR).
• The entity pointed out that the US government’s reciprocal tariff policy for several countries, including the Dominican Republic, is among the lowest (10%). Therefore, the Dominican market share seems to have a lower relative impact and could benefit from Asian products, where significantly higher reciprocal tariffs have been applied.
• He noted that the trade relationship with the United States is the most important bilateral relationship for the country. It represents 53.5% of Dominican exports, valued at US$6.9Bn in 2024. Meanwhile, imports from the United States were US$11,558.24Mn. Therefore, says AmchamDR, it is essential to evaluate carefully the challenges and opportunities these measures may bring.
• “AmchamDR is a bi-national chamber representing 1,600 companies responsible for 59% of Dominican exports. We have asked our Economy, Trade Facilitation and Bilateral Relations committees to review the announced measures and provide a net assessment that will be shared with our members and key stakeholders in the Government,” the entity said in a statement.

(Source: Dominican Today)