• In its quarterly World Economic Prospects report, published on Friday, January 17^th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its growth forecast for the Latin American economy for 2025 stable at 2.5%.
• Among the largest countries in the region, the IMF maintains Brazil’s growth forecast of 2.2%, raises Mexico’s growth forecast by one-tenth (1.4%), and expects a strong rebound in the Argentine economy (5.0%) after the 2024 recession.
• According to new IMF calculations, Brazil’s economy will slow down after recording robust growth of 3.7% in 2024. The calculations revise the forecast released last October by seven-tenths of a percentage point.
• IMF sources acknowledged that the Fund’s main concern regarding the Latin American economy is the inflationary pressure in Brazil – which led the Central Bank to raise interest rates to 12.25%.
• Additionally, the IMF report raised Mexico’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 by one-tenth to 1.4% and kept 2% unchanged for 2026. However, the IMF indicated that “economic activity is moderating in Mexico, with a slowdown in private consumption and investment, and a decrease in employment growth.”
• However, from 2025, the IMF forecasts a significant rebound, with growth of 5.0% that would also be maintained in 2026, representing an upward revision of three-tenths for next year.

(Sources: IMF & Dominican Today)

• Newly sworn-in President Donald Trump vowed on Monday that the United States would take back the Panama Canal as he delivered an inauguration speech in which he invoked the 19th-century expansionist doctrine of "Manifest Destiny.
• Doubling down on his pre-inauguration threat to reimpose U.S. control over the canal, Trump again accused Panama of breaking the promises it made for the final transfer of the strategic waterway in 1999 and of ceding its operation to China - claims that the Panamanian government has vehemently denied. "We didn't give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said.
• He gave no further details on when or how he intended to do that but had previously refused to rule out the possible use of military force, which drew criticism from Washington's Latin American friends and foes alike. Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino on Monday responded on X that his country has administered the canal responsibly for world trade, including for the U.S., and that it "is and will continue to be Panamanian."
• Trump's reiteration of his threat about the Panama Canal as he began his second term was his most blatant mention of an agenda for territorial expansion that he has laid out in recent weeks.
• In the run-up to his inauguration, he had also said he wanted to acquire Greenland, portraying the overseas Danish territory as crucial for U.S. national security interests, and mused about turning Canada into a U.S. state.

Source: (Reuters)

• Chinese officials and ordinary people are hopeful but on edge as Donald Trump returns to the White House, eager to avoid a repeat of the bruising trade war that drove a wedge between the economic superpowers during his first term.
• Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, in meetings with Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other members of the U.S. business community in Washington ahead of Trump's inauguration, said he hoped U.S. companies would "take root" in China and help to stabilise bilateral relations, the official Xinhua news agency reported.
• When Trump was last president, he heaped tariffs on more than $300Bn of Chinese imports. In recent months, he has said he would add tariffs of at least 10% on top of what is already imposed on Chinese goods, a move that would hurt China at a time when its economy is struggling to find a firm footing.
• At the same time, the U.S. president-elect made the seemingly conciliatory move of inviting Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration on Monday. Xi sent Han in his place, a gesture of goodwill given that China was only represented by its ambassador at the previous two U.S. presidential inaugurations.
• At their meeting on Sunday, Han told Musk, appointed by Trump to lead a department aimed at creating a more efficient U.S. government, that he "welcomed Tesla

(Source: Reuters)

• Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, wants to see more micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) listed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange this year.
• He urged MSMEs to take advantage of the recent amendment of the Income Tax Act, which allows companies to raise up to $750Mn during an initial public offering, an increase of $250Mn. Senator Hill, who was addressing Wednesday’s (January 15) post-Cabinet press briefing at Jamaica House, reasoned that the aim is to build companies that can compete not just in Jamaica but regionally and internationally.
• “Two of our biggest companies have big companies in the United States – Grace and Jamaica Broilers Group. More than 50 percent of Jamaica Broilers Group’s income comes not from Jamaica but from the United States, where they own a lot of companies,” he said. Senator Hill shared that trade data show that between 1960 and 2021, negative trade balances were recorded in 60 of the 61 years.
• “Unless we go and find new markets for our products and services and new markets for investments to come into Jamaica, we’re not going to be the rich country that we have to be,” he said.
• The 48 companies currently listed on the Junior Market benefit from a range of tax incentives that include conditional relief from income tax payments, exemption from transfer tax and stamp duty on transfer of shares. The Junior Market had a market capitalisation of J$148.5Bn as at the end of December 2024, having started with J$785.0Mn in 2009.

(Source: JIS)

• This year’s third annual Global Tourism Resilience Conference will focus on the integration of technology solutions in bolstering the resilience and sustainability of the global tourism industry.
• Portfolio Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, said that the conference “will explore cutting-edge technologies and strategies that are crucial for the sector’s adaptability and long-term sustainability, especially in the wake of recent global challenges”.
• The conference is expected to cover topics including the strategic applications of digital solutions to improve resilience and sustainability of tourist destinations, leveraging big data and artificial intelligence (AI) for effective resource management and disaster preparedness, and ensuring robust cybersecurity to protect digital and physical assets.
• The Discussions will also focus on innovative financial strategies with stakeholders like the International Tourism Investment Corporation Limited to support the funding of digital resilience projects.
• Activities will also include a practical demonstration of Jamaica’s resilient tourism infrastructure and will feature a showcase of the latest technological innovations from leading firms, including advanced tools for crisis management and sustainable tourism practices.

(Source: JIS)

• There has been major improvement across all commodities in Guyana’s mining sector. During 2024, mining activities in total were the second-highest contributor to Guyana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
• With developmental projects across the country in various sectors, the demand for building materials such as stone, sand and loom increased significantly in 2024.
• The Minister noted there has been significant investment in the quarrying sector, especially in the production of stone aggregates. In 2023, the production was at 1,851,152 tonnes, and in 2024, at 3,338,760 metric tonnes. This represents an approximate 180% increase from 2023 to 2024.
• A massive increase was also seen in the production of sand and loom. Loom production in 2023 was at 949,000 tonnes and increased to over 1.7 million tonnes in 2024. Similarly, for 2023, production of sand was at 8 million tonnes, while in 2024, it increased to 11.7 million tonnes.
• Minister Bharrat said this was a result of the confidence from investors. He further noted that when the current administration took over, there were seven operational quarries. Currently, there are seventeen operational quarries.
• A few of these existing quarries are expanding their operation and investment, therefore also expanding their production. He also noted that another five new quarries may become operational in 2025, which would increase production to more than four million tonnes.
• Minister Bharrat emphasized that the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Guyana Geology and Mines Commission (GGMC) will continue collaborating with stakeholders to meet local demand.

 (Source: Newsroom Guyana)

• Economic activity in Brazil exceeded market expectations in November, official data showed on Thursday, adding to a string of stronger-than-anticipated performances despite the central bank's ongoing monetary tightening cycle. The IBC-Br index, a leading indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), rose 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms from October, while economists polled by Reuters had expected no change.
• On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the index - which incorporates proxies for output in agriculture, industry, and services, as well as tax data on production - climbed 4.1% compared to November 2023 and increased 3.6% over 12 months.
• The positive performance came despite weaker-than-expected data in November for the service sector, the main driver of Brazil's economy, along with negative readings for retail sales and industrial output.
• Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has stated that Latin America's largest economy likely expanded by 3.6% in 2024, more than double the forecasts by private economists at the beginning of last year. The expansion has been fueled by strong household consumption and rising investment amid a tight labor market.

(Source: Reuters)

• A 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian products, followed by potential Canadian retaliatory tariffs, would lead two-thirds (65%) of small businesses to increase prices for consumers to offset tariff impacts, warns the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
• Additionally, 69% of small business owners said tariffs would lead to higher costs of doing business.
• “A trade war would be disastrous for both Canadian small businesses and consumers. We need to ensure that as governments face the tariff threat with their American counterparts, they must also stay focused on keeping Canadian businesses competitive at home,” said Corinne Pohlmann, Executive Vice-President of Advocacy.
• “The solution is a no-brainer. This is an SOS call to all governments: reduce red tape, eliminate internal trade barriers, and ease the tax burden on small businesses.”
• New CFIB data found that a strong majority (82%) of businesses would be impacted by tariffs in some way. The U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner, with over half (51%) of small businesses directly involved in either importing from or exporting to the U.S., and this does not include thousands more that rely on suppliers or customers that are trading with the U.S.
• Overall, businesses expect to face limited inventory or product availability and a need to find alternative markets or suppliers if tariffs are imposed.
• Following the findings, CFIB sent a letter to all premiers earlier this week, expressing concerns over the tariff threat and providing recommendations. To address the impact of a potential tariff on Canadian goods, a strong majority of business owners (62%) agree that Canadian governments must reduce the tax burden, with an equal percentage supporting the strengthening of border security measures to address U.S. concerns. Governments must also take bold action on interprovincial trade.

(Source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business)

• Britain's economic output returned to growth in November, the first month after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced big tax increases for businesses, but the expansion was smaller than expected. Gross domestic product rose by 0.1% from October after dips in September and October. However, economists polled by Reuters had mostly forecasted a 0.2% rise.
• Reeves, whose Oct. 30 budget included big increases in social security contributions paid by employers, said she was "determined to go further and faster to kick-start economic growth." She will meet regulators on Thursday to discuss what they can do to help the Labour government meet its promise to speed up the economy.
• However, Ben Jones, lead economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said a mood of caution had settled over UK businesses since the budget. "Many firms are entering 2025 with a focus on reducing operational expenditure, which is likely to weigh on pay, hiring and investment in the months ahead," Jones said
• Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Thursday's data showed the gloomy mood continued for the UK economy due to the budget tax hikes and global uncertainty after Donald Trump's U.S. presidential election victory.
• Britain's economy, which was slow to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, showed zero growth in the third quarter when uncertainty about the upcoming budget hit businesses. The BoE expects economic growth to have flat-lined in the last three months of 2024. However, an increase in government spending is expected to give a short-term boost to growth in 2025.
• Concerns about Britain's slow economy contributed to a recent surge in its government borrowing costs. But they dropped sharply on Wednesday after inflation data at home and in the U.S suggested interest rates could be cut more quickly.

(Source: Reuters)

• Point-to-point inflation increased to 5.0% in December, disrupting four consecutive months of disinflationary trend^[1]. With December’s outturn, the point-to-point inflation rate (P2P) of 5.0% is 70 basis points (bps), higher than the P2P reading in November (4.3%) but 190bps lower than December 2023’s outturn of 6.9%.
• The average price paid for goods and services by Jamaican consumers rose in December, as reflected in a 1.2% increase in the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI). The upward movement in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division (+1.9%), specifically in the ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ class was the main driver of the increase. Notable price increases were seen across all classes in the division, especially for sweet peppers, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, cabbage, and eggs.
• Also contributing to the increase in December 2024 was an increase in the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ index (+2.4%), reflecting higher household rental costs and electricity rates. However, aided by lower fuel prices, the index for the ‘Transport’ division fell by 0.3%.
• ‘The Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ was influenced by higher household rent and electricity rates and higher prices for food purchased from fast food restaurants and cookshops, respectively.
• The ‘Transport’ division fell by 0.3%. This decline was attributable to a fall of 1.8% in the index of the class ‘Fuels and Lubricants for personal transport equipment’ due to lower petrol prices.
• Overall, average consumer prices for 2024 ended at 5.6%, within the BOJ's target range of 4.0%–6.0%. Inflation is expected to remain within this range over the next eight quarters. Still, uncertainties surrounding the potential changes to economic policies among Jamaica’s main trading partners remain an upside risk. However, the timing and the extent of the policy changes are still highly uncertain.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

^[1] Inflation decreased consecutively from 6.5% in August 2024 to 4.3% in November.