• As global markets plunge in the aftermath of the Trump administration’s sweeping new tariff plan and worries about a potential recession rise, investors are thinking the Federal Reserve may now move faster to cut interest rates.
• The shift has to do with the changing outlook for growth in the United States, according to analysts. While new tariffs could exacerbate inflation in the short term, it’s possible that the Fed may support the economy by lowering interest rates rather than keeping rates restrictive to combat elevated price pressures. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will not rush any policy moves: “It feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry. We’re going to have to wait and see how this plays out before we start to make adjustments.”
• But the outlook remains fluid. “A tariff-induced economic downturn may be enough” to prompt the Fed to cut despite elevated inflation, explains Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Investment Management. That would be a departure from the Fed’s typical inflation playbook, which calls for restrictive policy to temper price pressures.
• Treasury yields have been falling alongside stocks as investors reduce their expectations for growth down the line, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling below 4% on Friday. “The market is clearly more concerned with economic growth than they are with inflation from the tariffs,” says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “I’m sure the Fed would share that concern.”
• Bond futures markets are pricing in an 85% chance of more than three rate cuts before the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s up from expectations of between one and two cuts before the tariff announcement. If the Fed cuts four times, it would bring the target federal-funds rate down to a range of 3.25%-3.50%—2 full percentage points lower than its peak last year.
• Traders now see a roughly 30% chance that the central bank cuts rates at its May meeting, compared with the 22% odds given on Thursday. Futures trading was volatile on Friday, with odds of a May cut rising as high as 40% in the early afternoon. A June cut remains seen as most likely, given odds of 70%.

(Source: Morningstar)

• Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, says the Government is actively engaging with the United States (US) Trade Representative and other relevant authorities “to seek urgent clarification” on the new US tariff regime. He highlighted that the United States Government recently imposed a 10 per cent baseline tariff on imports from all countries, introducing a significant global trade policy shift.
• Dr. Holness informed that Jamaica, like other CARICOM nations, has traded with the US under the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), which provides non-reciprocal duty-free access for a wide range of products to the US market.
• The government is awaiting formal notification on the implementation of the new tariffs and whether they will override existing CBI provisions. In the meantime, it is conducting a technical assessment with relevant ministries to understand the tariffs' scope and impact on Jamaica's trade.
• He also added that the Government will continue to advocate for manufacturers and exporters to ensure their interests are protected in any new global trade architecture.
• The Administration will continue working to ensure the country secures its economic independence, even as it remains alert and responsive to evolving global trade dynamics that affect manufacturers and exporters. He also encouraged them to explore new opportunities, assuring them that the Government will collaborate with them.

(Source: JIS)

• The Government of Jamaica has officially signed a landmark CARICOM agreement that will allow groups of Member States to advance deeper regional cooperation and economic integration, even if others are not yet ready to participate.
• Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator Kamina Johnson Smith, signed the Protocol to Amend the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas, which governs the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME).
• The Protocol will provide CARICOM with a practical tool to move forward, even when consensus is not immediate, by allowing three or more Member States to deepen cooperation in areas like trade and investment, while keeping the door open for others to join initiatives when ready.
• The agreement amends the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas, replacing Article 50 on Accelerated Implementation, and is expected to expedite the implementation of the CSME while safeguarding the rights of non-participating states.
• Johnson Smith emphasised that Jamaica played an active role in shaping the protocol, seeing it as a mechanism to strengthen business development and regional economic ties. She also confirmed that Jamaica will not need to pass new legislation or adjust financial commitments to CARICOM for its implementation. The protocol will have provisional effect once all CARICOM member states sign, with full ratification to follow.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean has returned to more stable historical averages since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, according to a new report issued by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
• According to the IDB's new macroeconomic report, the region grew 2.0% in 2024, exceeding initial forecasts of 1.7%, and is expected to grow 2.3% in 2025. The Regional Opportunities Amid Global Shifts report projected that growth rates are insufficient to address the region's pressing socioeconomic needs, including reducing poverty and inequality. Countries in the region should therefore focus on boosting productivity while reducing socioeconomic inequalities and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
• But the IDB acknowledges that amid global shifts, the region needs to embrace a series of reforms to seize growth opportunities and chart a course toward greater prosperity for its citizens. These include capitalising on the realignment of global supply chains, reducing labour informality, while efficiently managing fiscal and monetary policy.
• There are also opportunities to strengthen intraregional integration through trade. Despite shared economic interests, intraregional trade accounts for only 15% of the region's total trade, compared to 55% in Asia and 68% in Europe. The shifting global dynamics have created opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean to attract trade and investment flows, underscoring the urgency of integrating the region more deeply into global value chains.
• Foreign direct investment remains critical to increasing productivity, fostering industrial diversification, and driving growth in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Furthermore, though growth rates have returned to long-term averages, inflation has largely been contained, and many countries have taken steps toward fiscal consolidation; substantial risks remain, These risks include global trade fragmentation, volatility in financial markets, and uncertainty surrounding the global economy.

(Sources: Trinidad Express Newspaper & IDB)

• The imposition of a 10% tariff on the Dominican Republic announced by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, represents significant changes that will have direct and indirect impacts at the global and bilateral levels. The higher prices may negatively affect demand (exports) in the United States, said the American Chamber of Commerce of the Dominican Republic (AmchamDR).
• The entity pointed out that the US government’s reciprocal tariff policy for several countries, including the Dominican Republic, is among the lowest (10%). Therefore, the Dominican market share seems to have a lower relative impact and could benefit from Asian products, where significantly higher reciprocal tariffs have been applied.
• He noted that the trade relationship with the United States is the most important bilateral relationship for the country. It represents 53.5% of Dominican exports, valued at US$6.9Bn in 2024. Meanwhile, imports from the United States were US$11,558.24Mn. Therefore, says AmchamDR, it is essential to evaluate carefully the challenges and opportunities these measures may bring.
• “AmchamDR is a bi-national chamber representing 1,600 companies responsible for 59% of Dominican exports. We have asked our Economy, Trade Facilitation and Bilateral Relations committees to review the announced measures and provide a net assessment that will be shared with our members and key stakeholders in the Government,” the entity said in a statement.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Donald Trump has threatened China with an additional tariff of 50.0% on goods imported into the U.S. if it does not withdraw a countermeasure, as global markets tumbled for a third day.
• Trump’s threat of an additional 50.0% duties on Chinese goods would come into effect if Beijing did not retract its counter tariff of 34% on American goods, which it announced on Friday. If he does impose the additional 50%, U.S. companies would pay a total rate of 104% on Chinese imports.
• Beijing shot back, saying that "pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage". "The U.S. hegemonic move in the name of 'reciprocity' serves its selfish interests at the expense of other countries' legitimate interests and puts 'America first' over international rules," Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in a statement. "This is a typical move of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying."
• "We have $36 trillion debt for a reason," he said, adding that the US would be talking to China among other countries to make a "fair deal and a good deal". The escalating tension between the US and China has increased fears of a global trade war. The tariffs would come as a major blow to China's manufacturers, for whom the US is a key market for exports.
• Speaking from the White House, the US president said there could be both permanent tariffs and negotiations. He was also not considering a pause on new, wide-ranging tariffs to allow for negotiations with other countries. "We're not looking at that. We have many, many countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and there are going to be fair deals," he told reporters.

(Source: BBC News)

• A global market rout induced by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs scheme has solidified the case for another ECB rate cut next week and supports arguments for even quicker policy easing from the world's second largest central bank.
• The expected economic slowdown induced by the tariffs, along with the fallout from the market volatility are likely to be such a drag on prices that they will likely outweigh the inflationary impact of any retaliatory measures by the EU, economists say.
• Markets now see almost two rate cuts in the European Central Bank's next two meetings and see between three and four steps between now and the end of the year. German bond yields, the euro zone's benchmark, were once again falling on Monday as markets priced in a recession in the bloc and monetary easing to deal with it.
• While ECB policymakers are far from a consensus on what it all means in the longer run, the rout makes next week's rate cut a near certainty and interest rates could fall far deeper this year than earlier thought without jeopardizing the 2% inflation target.
• In fact, the market turmoil is so great, a recession is now a real possibility and propping up growth could soon become a bigger concern than inflation, which has run above the ECB's target for the past four years.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Shared Prosperity through Accelerated Improvement to Our Road Network (SPARK) project is expected to generate 13,000 direct jobs during construction, while delivering an estimated US$1.3Bn in savings from vehicle maintenance, enhanced service accessibility, and strengthened community connectivity.
• Minister without Portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation with responsibility for Works, Hon. Robert Morgan, made the disclosure during a statement to the House of Representatives on Tuesday (April 1).
• Work commenced in December 2024, following the award of a $45Bn contract, with three work orders issued covering 126 roads across 63 constituencies.
• “This initiative will improve economic efficiency, bolster Jamaica’s tourism appeal, and create employment opportunities,” Mr. Morgan said.
• The scope of work under SPARK includes the rehabilitation of main, local, and community roads, addressing pavements, select intersections, sidewalks, drainage, and retaining walls. Additionally, the project integrates water infrastructure upgrades and fibre-optic ducting to support future broadband connectivity.
• Mr. Morgan said a crucial element is the $5Bn investment in water pipeline upgrades, synchronised with roadworks to minimise disruptions.

(Source: JIS)

• The Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce (T&T Chamber) is warning that sweeping new US trade measures threaten to disrupt the flow of goods, spike consumer prices, and undermine export competitiveness across the Caribbean.
• The Chamber said two proposed US policy changes—announced by the Trump administration—have triggered concern.  These included a baseline 10.0% import tariff on all goods entering the United States, effective April 5, 2025, including from longstanding partners such as Trinidad and Tobago, and a US$1Mn fee on any Chinese-built vessel docking at US ports—posing major risks to regional shipping logistics.
• The United States accounts for 37.0% of T&T’s exports and 39.0% of its imports, making the local economy highly vulnerable to US trade shifts.
• The Chamber said, “This is not business as usual. The implications span from our petrochemical, crude oil, LNG exports to the cost of food, machinery, and household goods.” “Early estimates suggest the vessel surcharge could raise regional freight costs by up to 60.0%, with consumer prices surging 15–20.0%.”
• The T&T Chamber is urging swift, coordinated action. T&T and CARICOM must press for exemptions or phased relief via the Organisation of American States (OAS), World Trade Organization (WTO), and direct US engagement. A Tariff Impact Task Force—including public and private sector leaders—must be activated to track fallout and advise policy responses in real time. The Chamber supports regional investment in non-Chinese vessels and joint procurement models to minimize exposure to US port penalties.

(Source: Loop News)

• Brazil's revenues from international tourism hit a record US$823 million in February 2025, representing a 22.2% yoy increase, local authorities reported Tuesday. The arrival of over 1.3 million international visitors contributed a total of US$ 1.6 billion in tourism revenue for the first two months of the year, a 10.4% rise compared to 2024.
• The sector's growth is driven by international events like the BRICS Summit and COP30, as well as expanded air connectivity and promotional efforts.
• “International tourism has become a major driver of Brazil’s economy. It’s the fastest growing sector and a great job creator. After all, it’s where 95.0% of business is done by micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises,” said Embratur President Marcelo Freixo.
• In the first two months of the year, the inflow of travelers from abroad surged by 57.0% interannually, amounting to 2.8 million arrivals.
• According to Embratur, the sector has been boosted by a calendar of international events, which is expected to remain strong throughout the year, with the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro in July and the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP30) in Belém, Pará state, in November.

(Source: Agencia Brasil)