• Donald Trump has threatened China with an additional tariff of 50.0% on goods imported into the U.S. if it does not withdraw a countermeasure, as global markets tumbled for a third day.
• Trump’s threat of an additional 50.0% duties on Chinese goods would come into effect if Beijing did not retract its counter tariff of 34% on American goods, which it announced on Friday. If he does impose the additional 50%, U.S. companies would pay a total rate of 104% on Chinese imports.
• Beijing shot back, saying that "pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage". "The U.S. hegemonic move in the name of 'reciprocity' serves its selfish interests at the expense of other countries' legitimate interests and puts 'America first' over international rules," Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in a statement. "This is a typical move of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying."
• "We have $36 trillion debt for a reason," he said, adding that the US would be talking to China among other countries to make a "fair deal and a good deal". The escalating tension between the US and China has increased fears of a global trade war. The tariffs would come as a major blow to China's manufacturers, for whom the US is a key market for exports.
• Speaking from the White House, the US president said there could be both permanent tariffs and negotiations. He was also not considering a pause on new, wide-ranging tariffs to allow for negotiations with other countries. "We're not looking at that. We have many, many countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and there are going to be fair deals," he told reporters.

(Source: BBC News)

• A global market rout induced by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs scheme has solidified the case for another ECB rate cut next week and supports arguments for even quicker policy easing from the world's second largest central bank.
• The expected economic slowdown induced by the tariffs, along with the fallout from the market volatility are likely to be such a drag on prices that they will likely outweigh the inflationary impact of any retaliatory measures by the EU, economists say.
• Markets now see almost two rate cuts in the European Central Bank's next two meetings and see between three and four steps between now and the end of the year. German bond yields, the euro zone's benchmark, were once again falling on Monday as markets priced in a recession in the bloc and monetary easing to deal with it.
• While ECB policymakers are far from a consensus on what it all means in the longer run, the rout makes next week's rate cut a near certainty and interest rates could fall far deeper this year than earlier thought without jeopardizing the 2% inflation target.
• In fact, the market turmoil is so great, a recession is now a real possibility and propping up growth could soon become a bigger concern than inflation, which has run above the ECB's target for the past four years.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Shared Prosperity through Accelerated Improvement to Our Road Network (SPARK) project is expected to generate 13,000 direct jobs during construction, while delivering an estimated US$1.3Bn in savings from vehicle maintenance, enhanced service accessibility, and strengthened community connectivity.
• Minister without Portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation with responsibility for Works, Hon. Robert Morgan, made the disclosure during a statement to the House of Representatives on Tuesday (April 1).
• Work commenced in December 2024, following the award of a $45Bn contract, with three work orders issued covering 126 roads across 63 constituencies.
• “This initiative will improve economic efficiency, bolster Jamaica’s tourism appeal, and create employment opportunities,” Mr. Morgan said.
• The scope of work under SPARK includes the rehabilitation of main, local, and community roads, addressing pavements, select intersections, sidewalks, drainage, and retaining walls. Additionally, the project integrates water infrastructure upgrades and fibre-optic ducting to support future broadband connectivity.
• Mr. Morgan said a crucial element is the $5Bn investment in water pipeline upgrades, synchronised with roadworks to minimise disruptions.

(Source: JIS)

• The Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce (T&T Chamber) is warning that sweeping new US trade measures threaten to disrupt the flow of goods, spike consumer prices, and undermine export competitiveness across the Caribbean.
• The Chamber said two proposed US policy changes—announced by the Trump administration—have triggered concern.  These included a baseline 10.0% import tariff on all goods entering the United States, effective April 5, 2025, including from longstanding partners such as Trinidad and Tobago, and a US$1Mn fee on any Chinese-built vessel docking at US ports—posing major risks to regional shipping logistics.
• The United States accounts for 37.0% of T&T’s exports and 39.0% of its imports, making the local economy highly vulnerable to US trade shifts.
• The Chamber said, “This is not business as usual. The implications span from our petrochemical, crude oil, LNG exports to the cost of food, machinery, and household goods.” “Early estimates suggest the vessel surcharge could raise regional freight costs by up to 60.0%, with consumer prices surging 15–20.0%.”
• The T&T Chamber is urging swift, coordinated action. T&T and CARICOM must press for exemptions or phased relief via the Organisation of American States (OAS), World Trade Organization (WTO), and direct US engagement. A Tariff Impact Task Force—including public and private sector leaders—must be activated to track fallout and advise policy responses in real time. The Chamber supports regional investment in non-Chinese vessels and joint procurement models to minimize exposure to US port penalties.

(Source: Loop News)

• Brazil's revenues from international tourism hit a record US$823 million in February 2025, representing a 22.2% yoy increase, local authorities reported Tuesday. The arrival of over 1.3 million international visitors contributed a total of US$ 1.6 billion in tourism revenue for the first two months of the year, a 10.4% rise compared to 2024.
• The sector's growth is driven by international events like the BRICS Summit and COP30, as well as expanded air connectivity and promotional efforts.
• “International tourism has become a major driver of Brazil’s economy. It’s the fastest growing sector and a great job creator. After all, it’s where 95.0% of business is done by micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises,” said Embratur President Marcelo Freixo.
• In the first two months of the year, the inflow of travelers from abroad surged by 57.0% interannually, amounting to 2.8 million arrivals.
• According to Embratur, the sector has been boosted by a calendar of international events, which is expected to remain strong throughout the year, with the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro in July and the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP30) in Belém, Pará state, in November.

(Source: Agencia Brasil)

• The U.S. services sector slowed to a nine-month low in March, backing expectations that economic growth likely stalled in the first quarter amid uncertainty caused by import tariffs. The economic outlook was further dimmed by President Donald Trump unveiling on Wednesday a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported into the U.S., sparking threats of retaliation and rattling global financial markets.
• Fitch Ratings estimated the nation's tariff rate was now the highest in more than a century. Economists warned of higher inflation and possible job losses as households slash spending and businesses pull back on investment, potentially pushing the economy into recession. Business and consumer sentiment had already tanked before Trump's sweeping tariffs.
• Ten industries, including wholesale trade, public administration as well as construction and retail trade, reported growth. Among those reporting contractions were information, educational services and healthcare and social assistance.
• Comments from businesses were downbeat. Some construction businesses said they were already seeing the effects of import duties on aluminum imposed by Trump in March, adding that "these costs will be passed on to customers."
• Tariffs were also a problem for information businesses, while utilities companies said they expected "price increases in the near future due to tariffs." Public administration firms said deep government spending cuts and mass firings of federal workers were "negatively impacting our operations."
• Trump sees tariffs as a tool to raise revenue to offset promised tax cuts and to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base, a view not shared by economists. But economists worry that Trump's tariffs blitz since returning to the White House in January could push the economy into recession, especially if the nation's trade partners retaliate with duties of their own.

(Source: Reuters)

• Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on Thursday that the central bank can take its time to assess a highly unsettled environment before moving interest rates again, amid risks that inflation could worsen due to tariffs. “Amid growing uncertainty and risks to both sides of our dual mandate, I believe it will be appropriate to maintain the policy rate at its current level while continuing to vigilantly monitor developments that could change the outlook,” Cook said in a speech at the University of Pittsburgh.
• During her remarks, Cook warned that tariffs have created risks for price pressures. “Inflation progress will stall in the near term, in part because of tariffs and other policy changes,” she said, adding “I currently place more weight on scenarios where risks are skewed to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth,” while noting higher inflation and slower growth “could pose challenges for monetary policy.”
• A wide range of economists recoiled from his actions, which exceeded many forecasters’ worst-case scenarios, while financial markets around the world saw big sell-offs amid souring sentiment over the outlook. The tariffs, which are import taxes paid by Americans rather than foreign producers, will likely drive up already high levels of inflation and depress growth, and could even drive the U.S. and other nations into economic downturns, many analysts say.
• Economists share the concern over the impact of tariffs. "The implied U.S. tariff rate now stands near levels higher than during the Great Depression and last seen in the early 1900s," Deutsche Bank economists said on Thursday. Morgan Stanley forecasters said “risks to inflation lie to the upside,” adding “we think tariff-induced inflation will keep the Fed on the sidelines and we remove our June rate cut."
• Trump’s global trade war has put the Fed in a difficult position. Higher inflation argues for officials to hold steady or even potentially hike interest rates, while a weakening economy and souring job market could call for easier policy. Some in markets believe the challenging outlook makes it more likely the Fed could cut rates to try to limit the collateral damage of the president’s actions.

(Source: Reuters)

• Fitch Solutions expects the Jamaican economy to grow by 1.2% in 2025, buoyed by increased domestic demand and continued economic recovery from Hurricane Beryl.
• Additionally, Fitch sees favourable domestic economic conditions and expected policy rate cuts by the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) in H2 2025 as auguring well for growth in economic activity. The outlook is also supported by a record-low unemployment rate of 3.5% in Q4 2024, well-anchored inflation rates within the BOJ’s target range, and an expected 6.7% minimum wage increase and rise in the income tax threshold from J$1.7Mn to J$1.8Mn in April 2025.
• Although domestic demand will help growth recover in 2025, Jamaica remains vulnerable to external shocks and challenging global economic conditions. These external factors include flagging U.S. demand, an unpredictable geopolitical and trade policy environment, and a potentially damaging hurricane season.
• A stagnating growth outlook for the United States is a stiff headwind to Jamaica’s economy. Fitch revised its forecast for Real GDP growth in the United States in 2025 down from 2.1% to 1.9% with risks tilted overwhelmingly to the downside. The impact of a slowing US economy is sizeable for Jamaica’s entire economy, with the United States accounting for 47.2% of Jamaica’s total exports in 2023 and 40.9% of total importsFurthermore, with the U.S. now imposing a 10% tariff on Jamaica (and other countries) for all imported goods, this is likely to put a damper on the island's exports to the US and, by extension GDP growth.
• Additionally, slowing economic activity in the United States will weigh on capital spending in Jamaica, as evidenced by sharp declines in foreign direct investment inflows in 2024. Demand for foreign travel by U.S. residents has also declined, with a 2.8 percentage point decrease in the percentage of Americans surveyed in February 2025 who said they planned to visit a foreign country in the next six months, a headwind for the tourism-dependent Jamaica.
• Fitch’s growth forecast also accounts for anticipated weather-related shocks curtailing economic growth and dynamism. An initial forecast for the 2025 storm season anticipates between 13 and 18 storms, including 7-10 hurricanes, comparable to 2024’s busy storm season, which saw 11 hurricanes and 18 storms. As seen in 2024, strong storms and hurricanes can dramatically impact Jamaica’s growth prospects through supply-side shocks, with resulting spikes in inflation deteriorating the real income of the Jamaican consumer and reducing the stock of productive capital and infrastructure.

(Sources: Fitch Connect & NCBCM Research)

• The Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ) is investing billions of dollars in the expansion of shipping, logistics, and supply chain capacity in St. James. Senior Vice President of Finance, Information Services, Corporate Planning and Materials Management, Elva Williams-Richards, said that three major projects are being undertaken in the parish. These include the expansion of berth facilities at the Montego Bay Port at a cost of J$1Bn.
• The works, which are already underway, aim to improve efficiency for cruise and cargo operations. In addition, the Authority will be redesigning and scraping a section of Tony Hart Boulevard, the first phase of which will cost more than half a billion dollars.
• “These investments enhance the region’s capacity for trade, shipping and logistics, making western Jamaica a more attractive hub for international commerce and supports Jamaica’s goal of becoming a key player in the global supply chain,” she said.
• Importantly, on March 14, 2025, Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) reaffirmed the assigned Issuer/Corporate credit ratings of CariA- (Foreign Currency Rating) and CariA (Local Currency Rating) on the regional rating scale, and jmAA+ on the Jamaica national scale assigned to PAJ. The ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of PAJ relative to other obligors in the Caribbean is good, and when compared to other obligors in Jamaica, is high.
• CariCRIS also assigned a stable outlook on PAJ, reflecting the high likelihood that PAJ will continue to have profitable operations over the next 12-15 months.
• This affirmation and stable outlook could enhance the PAJ’s access to funding, which could be used within the business for further expansions. This, coupled with the expectation of improved revenue-generating capabilities based on the number of ongoing upgrade projects, supported by growth conditions in the Jamaican economy, global trade volumes and the global cruise industry, would act as a positive growth driver to the domestic maritime sector and the wider economy.

(Sources: JIS & CariCRIS)

• Guyana and Brazil will continue to play a dominant role in Latin America’s oil production growth by 2030, according to Norway-based energy research and business intelligence firm, Rystad Energy. 
• The region is set to add over four million barrels per day (mbd) of new crude oil and condensate capacity, accounting for 39% of global non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) additions.
• Guyana ranks as the 5th largest crude oil exporter in Latin America. Brazil has historically led production, but Guyana has emerged as a key contributor since production began at the Stabroek Block. By 2030, more than 85% of Latin America’s new offshore deepwater output will come from Guyana and Brazil, Rystad Energy said in an April 1 report.
• Major offshore oil developments across Latin America are poised to drive significant production growth in the coming years. Key projects include Brazil’s Búzios and Bacalhau fields, as well as ExxonMobil-led developments in Guyana such as Uaru, Whiptail, and Yellowtail. Notably, the Yellowtail project is expected to begin producing oil as early as the third quarter. Suriname’s GranMourgu project is slated to come online by 2028, adding a new frontier to the region’s energy landscape. Meanwhile, Mexico is gearing up to boost output through the Zama, Trion, and Polok-Chinwol fields. These developments underscore the region’s emerging role in global energy supply amid broader shifts in exploration and production strategies.
• According to Rystad Energy, global non-OPEC production capacity is expected to rise by 10.5 mbd between 2025 and 2030 but declines in mature fields will offset some gains. Latin America will see the highest growth at 1.9 mbd, outpacing North America, the Middle East, and Africa.
• Strong project approvals and a solid development pipeline will keep Latin America at the forefront of global supply expansion through the decade.

(Source: Oil Now)