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Stocks rise, oil cools as anxiety over Mideast recedes Published: 07 January 2020

  • World shares steadied and oil pulled back from multi-month highs on Tuesday after dramatic post-new year moves, as investors judged that prospects of an all-out conflict between the United States and Iran had eased.
  • On Monday the mood began to calm, helping U.S. shares recover ground. The Dow ended 0.24% higher, the S&P 500 0.35% and the Nasdaq 0.56%.
  • After a strong rally, oil gave back some of its gains amid signs that Iran would be unlikely to strike against the United States in a way that would disrupt supplies.
  • Brent crude futures fell 44 cents to $68.48 a barrel, having been as high as $70.74 on Monday, while U.S. crude dropped 34 cents to $62.93.

 (Source: Reuters)

MXN: Short Term Strength To Give Way To Long Term Depreciation Published: 07 January 2020

  • Fitch is neutral on the Mexican peso (MXN) over the short term, but expects the unit will depreciate over the long term.
  • The forecast for the unit was revised for 2020 to an average of MXN19.16/USD, from MXN20.05/USD previously, amid a relaxation of global trade tensions.
  • Risks to the view are weighted to the downside, given the potential for deterioration in relations with the US or a downturn in the global economy.

(Source: Fitch)

Investment, Rebounding Exports Will Drive Growth in Dominican Republic Published: 07 January 2020

  • The Dominican Republic will maintain one of the highest real GDP growth rates in the Caribbean over the coming quarters even as economic activity slows from its 2018 high.
  • An accommodative monetary policy stance will support foreign investment and business expansion, while exports will rebound as global headwinds level off.
  • Fitch Solutions maintain its real GDP growth forecasts for the Dominican Republic of 4.7% y-o-y in 2020 and 4.5% in 2021, from an estimated 4.9% in 2019, though a US recession or domestic political unrest may weigh on economic activity in the short to medium term. 

 (Source: Fitch)

Confidence In Jamaica Leads to Investments – GAP Published: 07 January 2020

  • Mexican company, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (GAP), says the level of investments made in Jamaica is indicative of its belief in Jamaica and the country’s prospects for growth.
  • The firm officially took over management of the Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA) last October, through its local subsidiary, PAC Kingston Airport Limited (PACKAL), under a 25-year concession agreement.
  • Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of GAP, Raul Revuelta, said the investment decision rested heavily on the strides that Jamaica has been making.
  • “It is completely related to what we believe about the future of Jamaica. We really believe in what is coming. We know that Jamaica has the lowest inflation rate, the lowest interest rate, and the lowest unemployment rate in its history,” he said. “That is something really great to celebrate.
  • GAP has committed to invest US$60Mn in the development of the airport during the first three years of operation, under a modernisation plan that is expected to cost more than US$100Mn.

(Source: JIS

BOJ Issued $2.9 Billion During Last Five Working Days Published: 07 January 2020

  • The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) says net currency issued during the last five working days of 2019, between December 23 and 31, totalled some $2.9Bn.
  • In a statement on Thursday (January 2), the BOJ said this out-turn for the week contributed to the overall $18.9Bn or 14.5% growth in the currency stock for the month, consistent with expenditure associated with the festive Christmas season.
  • The Central Bank indicated that the overall stock of currency issued for the year totalled $148.9Bn as at December 31. This, the BOJ said, represented an annual increase of 11.5%, as against 20.4% recorded for the corresponding period in 2018.
  • The BOJ said it anticipates that the majority of the currency in circulation during December will be redeemed during January. It further noted that over the last five years, net currency redemption in January averaged 73.2% of the sum issued in the preceding month.

(Source: JIS)

Stocks Edge Lower in Thin Trading; Dollar Declines: Markets Wrap Published: 31 December 2019

  • With several major markets shuttered and trading volumes thin before the New Year’s holiday, the dominant moves on Tuesday reflected some common investor expectations for 2020: dollar weakness and caution in stocks.
  • Contracts on the S&P 500 Index fluctuated in a small range a day after the underlying gauge fell the most in more than three weeks. Shares struggled for traction in Europe and slipped in Asia as the blockbuster year headed for a lackluster finish. 
  • Utility and food shares led Tuesday’s decliners on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, though the benchmark was still on track for its best annual performance in a decade with a 23% gain.

 (Source: Bloomberg)

Fed Wins Year-End Repo Battle, But War to Control Rates Drags On Published: 31 December 2019

  • The Federal  Reserve may have succeeded in thwarting major year-end turmoil in funding markets, but 2020 is likely to bring a whole new set of concerns.
  • The U.S. central bank has been injecting liquidity into markets through repurchase-agreement operations since mid- September in a bid to keep control of short-end rates. 
  • Earlier this month the Fed ramped up its offerings to help smooth the market’s path into January. It has also been bolstering system reserves through Treasury bill purchases.
  • The results of the most recent repo actions, which were undersubscribed, suggest that there is now ample funding for the year-end turn. And while the rate on overnight general collateral repurchase agreements was slightly elevated on Tuesday morning, the market is not witnessing the kind of spike seen in September -- when overnight repo rates surged to 10% from around 2%.

 (Source: Bloomberg)

Brazil's Trade Balance Likely To Weaken Amid Limited Export Growth Published: 31 December 2019

  • It is expected that Brazil's current account deficit will widen modestly over the coming quarters, as imports rise in line with a pick up in consumption and investment.
  • Export growth will be constrained by lower average commodity prices, fading benefits from Chinese trade diversion and limited progress on advancing new trade deals.
  • While capital inflows will likely cover external financing needs, financing shortfalls over recent months highlight downside risks to this view.

(Source: Fitch)

First Oil From Offshore Guyana Underpins Interest In Guyana-Suriname Basin Published: 31 December 2019

  • ExxonMobil continues to de-risk the offshore acreage of the Guyana-Suriname Basin with the 15th oil discovery in Stabroek Block after delivering first oil from the Liza project ahead of schedule.
  • Other international companies operating in the Basin struggle to deliver results that would match Exxon's success. That said, IOCs continue to be attracted to Latin America's frontier markets, with Total farming into the Block 58 in offshore Suriname.
  • The uncertainty over the legislative framework for upstream operations and the upcoming presidential elections constitute a moderate downside risk for our production forecast in Guyana.

(Source: Fitch)

Slight Improvement in Profit at Main Event Published: 31 December 2019

  • For the year ended October 2019, Main Events Entertainment Group reported profit of $97.34Mn (EPS: $0.33) which represents a marginal 2.8% improvement over the $94.66Mn reported in the prior year.
  • A 28.8% (or $402.19Mn) increase in revenues together with a $7.76Mn increase in other operating income were the primary drivers for the improvement in performance. However, this was partially offset by a 27.6% (or $115.28Mn) increase in admin expenses.
  • The stock has declined 10.9% since the start of the year, and closed at $6.21 at the end of Monday’s trading session.  At this price the stock currently trades at a P/E of 18.8x earnings which is below the Junior Market average of 25.2x.

(Source: MEEG Financials