• According to Fitch, in 2019, Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis will continue to push forward economic liberalization policies aimed at boosting investment.

• A strong Free National Movement (FNM) majority in the legislature will support Minnis's pro-business policy agenda which includes infrastructure development, boosting the tourism sector and energy sector reform.

• Potential social backlash to fiscal consolidation and the volatility of political support will present the primary political risks heading towards the 2022 vote. 

(Source: Fitch)

• Political uncertainty will cloud Guyana's short-term fiscal outlook and Fitch forecasts the country will run wide fiscal deficits

• In the long term, significant windfalls from the energy sector will lead to a substantial narrowing of the deficit.

• Fitch Solutions has revised its fiscal deficit forecast for 2019 and 2020 to 5.1% and 4.2% of GDP, from 5.5% and 4.6% previously.

(Source: Fitch Latin America Monitor- Caribbean)

• OPEC’s crude production slumped again last month as the cartel implemented planned cutbacks in full and some members were hit by U.S. sanctions.

• Although the group has now fully implemented the curbs announced last year, almost half of the output drop was caused by unplanned losses in Venezuela and Iran, which are under trade restrictions imposed by President Donald Trump.

• The plunge shows that, despite Trump’s guidance this week that OPEC should “relax” instead of restraining supply, the group’s production is highly influenced by the president’s foreign policy.

• At about $66 and $57 (Brent and WTI, respectively) per barrel, crude prices remain below the levels required by the kingdom, and most other OPEC members, in order to cover government spending.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• U.S officials are preparing a final trade deal that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks, even as debate continues in Washington over whether to push Beijing for more concessions.

• The U.S. is eyeing a summit between the two presidents as soon as mid-March.

• At a summit in Vietnam this week with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the U.S. president showed he’s willing to walk away if he doesn’t like the terms on the table, including with China.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) Co-Chair, Keith Duncan, believes Jamaica is and will be in good stead to manage its affairs after the borrowing relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concludes later this year. He was addressing journalists during EPOC’s media briefing New Kingston on Tuesday, February 26.

• Duncan noted that Jamaica will have sufficient net international reserves, debt levels will be down, tax revenues are buoyant, and the country will continue to run primary surpluses, so that debt to gross domestic product [GDP] ratio can be reduced to 60 percent in fiscal year 2025/26.

• Jamaica’s fiscal performance remains positive and the economic programme is poised for success, based on the outcomes of select quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets under the IMF Precautionary Stand-By Arrangement (PSBA) for the first nine months of the 2018/19 fiscal year.

(Source: Jamaica Information Service)

• For the nine-month period ending December 31, 2018, Lasco Financial Services Limited reported an unaudited net profit of $267.7Mn (EPS: $0.21), representing a 20.9% increase relative to the $221.6Mn profit (EPS: $0.18) reported in the corresponding period of 2017. These results reflect the progress of the business one year after the acquisition of Scotia Jamaica Microfinance Limited now renamed LASCO Microfinance Limited.

• The year to date income from core activity increased by 50% from $1,088Mn to $1,629Mn whereas other income grew by 248% to $190Mn. This resulted in an overall increase in income of $618.4Mn. All business lines continue to contribute positively to the increase in revenues.

• Operating expenses for the nine-month period grew by 55% from $819Mn to $1,271Mn when compared with the previous financial year. This is mainly due to the expenses from the subsidiary and general growth in business which would not have been reflected in the previous year.

• Lasco Financials stock price is up approximately 2.89% since the start of the calendar year, closing yesterday’s trading session at $4.63. At this price the stock is trading at a P/E of 19.50x which is below the Junior Market Financial Sector average of 20.79x.

(Source: Lasco Financial Services Limited Financials)

• Moody’s is urging further “restraint” in The Bahamas’ public spending while predicting that the government will miss the 1.8% deficit target set by the Fiscal Responsibility Act for 2018-2019.

• The credit rating agency, in an update that accompanied its upgrading of The Bahamas’ outlook from “negative” to “stable”, warned that the government’s $237Mn deficit objective was still “attainable” but would likely require further spending curbs between now and end-June to hit the target

• Moody’s also gave more conservative economic growth projections for The Bahamas than the International Monetary Fund (IMF), forecasting that gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 1.9% in 2019 following 2%growth last year. The IMF had projected 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.

(Source: Tribune 242)

• Minister of Labour Colin Jordan gave the indication that Barbados may need more skilled individuals in light of projected investments and job creation, stopping short of saying whether Barbados would need to import new talent to meet the anticipated demand.

• “As we execute the growth and transformation aspects of our Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation plan, we will have to make sure in the public sector, in the private sector, and in the third sector – civil society – we have the requisite workers and skills to drive our economy,” he said.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Political realignment in Mexico's Congress will further strengthen the ruling coalition of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), with the qualified majority for constitutional change within reach for a number of initiatives.

• However, the Senate will offer a counterweight to AMLO’s policy agenda, as Morena’s lack of a two-thirds majority will require compromise on any potential constitutional reforms.

• Fitch Solutions notes mounting risks from regulatory changes, especially in the energy sector, which threaten investment and may lead to a further downgrade of its growth forecasts.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Britain has an agreement at the World Trade Organization to remain within the WTO’s Government Procurement Agreement after it leaves the European Union, Britain’s mission said.

• Britain is a member of the GPA, whose members open up their combined $1.7 trillion government procurement markets to each other’s firms, by virtue of its EU membership.

• Membership would “ensure that British taxpayers and public sector organizations, including government departments, continue to benefit from increased choice and value for money on contracts which are open to international competition.          

• Staying in the GPA is important so that British companies can bid for government work in the United States, the European Union, and Japan, and their firms can retain access to Britain’s procurement market.

(Source: Reuters)