• The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose above 3.25 % in early trading today, returning to levels not seen in more than seven years. 

• Bond experts have pointed to the robust economic data, signs of inflation and a glut of debt issuance as a reason for the rising rates.

Source: CNBC

• The IMF cut its forecast for global growth to 3.7% for this year and next, down from 3.9% previously.
• It blamed escalating trade tensions and stresses in emerging markets for the reduction.
• The policy lender warned of a recession in Argentina and slower growth in Brazil, while calling for sweeping reforms to shield Turkey’s economy following the recent drop in the lira.
• Pakistan, meanwhile, has said that it will seek the country’s 13th IMF bailout since the late 1980s

Source: Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) Barbados expects a debt restructuring offer with external creditors to be ready "in a matter of weeks or months," special adviser to the Barbados government Avinash Persaud said [today] during a webcast with the IMF. 

• Discussions with foreign creditors "more complicated and it takes longer" than local debt restructuring. "We believe there is a path toward an adjustment" with external debt: Persaud 

• IMF’s deputy division chief Bert van Selm said he sees "orderly process with good faith discussions" with domestic and external creditors 

• Domestic debt restructuring offer "strikes the right balance" for government and credit holders: Van Selm 

• Public debt of 157% of GDP is unsustainable "by any standard" and restructuring debt stock very important: Van Selm 

• Government targets debt-to-GDP of 60% and primary surplus of 6% of GDP, Persaud said 
• The government wants to "move toward a world where we can remove our exchange controls," Persaud said

• Reserves should be around $2Bn Barbados dollars before easing exchange controls. "We are not going to do it in any rushed or rash way," Persaud said

• Oil prices steadied just below four-year highs on Friday as world fuel markets tightened ahead of a new round of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports due to be imposed in November.
• Benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was down 5 cents a barrel at $84.53 by 1230 GMT. On Thursday, Brent fell by $1.34 a barrel or 1.6%, but the contract remained on course for a gain of around 2 %for the week.
• US. light crude CLc1 was up 25 cents at $74.58, a gain of more than 1.5% since last Friday.
• Speculators have accumulated bullish long positions, betting on a further rise in prices to $100 per barrel by next.

Source: Reuters

• US 10-year yield jumps to a fresh 7-year high after the unemployment rate falls to lowest in 49 years
• Job creation for September falls to its lowest level in a year, but the unemployment rate drops to a level not seen since December 1969.
• Closely-watched average hourly earnings rose 8 cents or 0.3% over the month, matching August's gain.
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note returns to levels not seen since May 2011 following the release. Yields were 3.233% immediately following the jobs report.

Source: CNBC

• For the year ended May 31, 2018, MTL reported profits of US1.1Mn (EPS: US¢1.6), representing a 114% over the $499 (EP: US¢0.7) reported last year. 
• This came despite a decline of 7.9% in revenues to US$6.0Mn due to disruptions caused by hurricanes which hit Grand Turk in September of 2017.  Recovery was swift, allowing the company to re-open within 2 months.
• The company also received insurance payments of US$646K which boosted its bottom line.
• Sans risk of future natural disasters, the company remains optimistic given the negotiations underway which will see an expansion of the Grand Turk Port coupled with Carnival Corporation substantially increasing its ship size across all their cruise lines.

Source: MTL Audited Financials, NCBCM Research

• Mystic Mountain recently raised $1.1Bn through a private placement intended to double the park’s capacity and refinance existing debt.   The bond carries a coupon of 7.125% and matures in 7 years.
• The funds raised will among others be used to increase the park's capacity from approximately 200 persons per hour to 400 persons per hour as well as do upgrades to the parks existing facilities.  The former will be facilitated through the creation of new attractions, including roller glider, ropes and wall climbing attractions
• Sygnus Capital was the arranger of the issue which received a rating of “adequate” with a stable outlook from CariCRIS. 

Source: FG

(Fitch Connect) Brazil's fiscal deficit will most likely narrow gradually over the coming years, although downside risks are significant. With the next Congress set to be dominated by centrist parties, the spending cap amendment will remain in place and modest fiscal reforms will likely be enacted. However, significant structural adjustments such as pension reforms will face major obstacles to enactment, which could trigger a significant deterioration of investor sentiment over the two years.

( Fitch Connect) On September 30, the US and Canada reached an agreement on bilateral issues that will allow NAFTA 2.0 to move forward as a trilateral accord, following a similar agreement between the US and Mexico in August. The agreement will in large part alleviate uncertainty surrounding the future of trade relations within the bloc, and will now go to legislatures for approval. 

A strong dollar and a surge in global oil prices above $85 a barrel sent emerging market currencies broadly lower on Tuesday, while Hong Kong led a fall in stocks over worries about a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing. Oil prices rose almost 3% on Monday to hit a four-year high, raising the prospect of higher inflation and more pressure on growth in countries which have to buy in their fuel supplies. Manufacturing activity in countries from China to Russia this week has also turned investors’ minds back to the issues of growth and capital outflows that drove a sell-off in several major emerging markets earlier this year.