• The Cen­tral Bank of Trinidad and To­ba­go (CBTT), in its lat­est Mon­e­tary Policy Re­port, has ex­plained that T&T’s econ­o­my can be fur­ther stim­u­lat­ed if there is an end to the in­ter­rup­tion of nat­ur­al gas pro­duc­tion.
• The bank ex­pressed that the Min­istry of En­er­gy ex­pects a rise in nat­ur­al gas pro­duc­tion to around 3.8Bn stan­dard cu­bic feet per day (bcf/d), which would aid the re­ju­ve­na­tion of down­stream re­fin­ing and strength­en the pro­duc­tion of petro­chem­i­cals.
• The CBTT con­tend­ed that LNG pro­duc­tion, which was in­ter­rupt­ed in June by main­te­nance ac­tiv­i­ty and pow­er out­ages at the At­lantic LNG fa­cil­i­ty, is like­ly to nor­malise in the sec­ond half of 2019.
• The CBTT said that the re­sponse of pri­vate in­vest­ment will be key to de­ter­min­ing how fast the non-en­er­gy econ­o­my re­cov­ers. Ac­cord­ing to pre­lim­i­nary es­ti­mates by the CBTT for the first half of 2019, ac­tiv­i­ty re­mained mod­er­ate in the non-en­er­gy sec­tor while ac­tiv­i­ty de­clined in sev­er­al cru­cial sub-sec­tors such as man­u­fac­tur­ing and con­struc­tion.

(Source: T&T Guardian)

• France has added The Bahamas, Anguilla, Virgin Islands, and Seychelles to its blacklist of tax havens for lack of cooperation, according to Public Accounts Minister Gerald Darmanin.
• The Bahamas Attorney General Bethel told the local press that a final decision has not been made by the French government.  "As I understand it France is advising that they may blacklist us. I'm not aware that it has gone beyond foreshadowing by their Minister."
• Earlier this year The Bahamas avoided being blacklisted as a tax haven by the European Union (EU).

(Source: International Investment)

• China is in the process of waiving retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. pork and soy by domestic companies, a procedural step that may also signal a broader trade agreement with the U.S. is drawing closer.
• China’s finance ministry said it has started to process the applications after the firms purchased a certain amount of U.S. goods based on its needs. The ministry is working to waive the tariffs resulting from the trade war on those goods, it said in a statement on Friday.
• American and Chinese negotiators have signaled that they may be drawing closer to agreeing on phase one of a broader accord that would resolve the trade dispute. However, President Donald Trump has said that he wouldn’t mind if it takes until after the 2020 U.S. election and that a threatened Dec. 15 tariff increase will proceed if the talks fail to yield a deal he likes

(Source Bloomberg)

• The bar for cutting U.S. interest rates may get a little lower next year when a new crop of central bankers rotate into voting spots on the Federal Reserve's policy-setting panel as part of its annual membership reshuffle.
• The four regional Fed bank presidents gaining a vote on interest rates starting in January are slightly less hawkish overall than the four they replace, a review of public comments and voting records shows.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that after three rate cuts this year, only a "material" change to the economic outlook could trigger a further reduction. When they meet next week for the last time this year, policymakers are expected to leave rates in the current range of 1.5% to 1.75%.

(Source Reuters)

• Scotia Group reported a net income of $13.19Bn (EPS: $4.24) for the year ended October 31, 2019, a 3.3% increase over the outturn in its 2018 financial year.
• Net gains on FX activities (+$2.95Bn or 73.8%), insurance revenue, up $370.37Mn (or 12.6%) and net gains on financial assets (+ 27.2%) were the main drivers of the company’s performance. 
• The stock has risen by 1.2% since the start of the calendar year and closed Wednesday’s trading session at $55.48. It currently trades at a P/E of 13.1x earnings, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector average of 18.7x.

(Source: Scotia Group Jamaica Financials)

• Tourism Minister, the Hon. Edmund Bartlett, says that with LATAM Airlines now joining American Airlines with direct flights out of major international gateways, Jamaica has become the most connected destination in the English-speaking Caribbean.
• Addressing tourism stakeholders and business interests at a welcome reception for crew members of the LATAM Airlines flight from Lima, Peru, at the Sangster International Airport on December 2, the Minister said Jamaica’s tourism exploits have never been better, adding that “this is just the tip of the iceberg”.
• “We recently celebrated the return of direct flights with American Airlines out of JFK Airport in New York. Today we welcome LATAM Airlines flight with 174 passengers from Lima, Peru. For now, the deal is that they will be doing three flights per week with more to be added in the not too distant future,” Mr. Bartlett informed.
• The Minister further noted that the Lima hub is one of the biggest in South America and will make Jamaica the most connected of any Caribbean nation from that region.

(Source: JIS) 

• While Mexico is expected to see weaker growth in 2019, it will likely see stronger activity in 2020 on the back of private consumption, rising exports and private infrastructure investment.
• Fitch Solutions has revised its real GDP growth forecast for 2019 down to 0.1%, from 0.6% previously, due to weakness in the manufacturing sector and investment. The forecast is that the economy will pick up pace in 2020 growing 1.2%.
• That being said, uncertainty over the global economic outlook and the potential for additional erratic policymaking under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) are the main downside risks to the country’s performance.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Barbados will experience a second consecutive year of economic contraction in 2019 as government fiscal consolidation weighs on consumption and investment.
• Fitch Solutions has revised its real GDP forecast down from a  0.3% y-o-y growth to a 0.1% contraction for 2019.
• In 2020, real economic activity is projected to return to growth (1.3%) as tourism remains solid and foreign investment solidifies.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Chinese officials are in “close contact” with U.S. counterparts on trade negotiations, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said, while reiterating that tariffs should be reduced proportionately as part of a phase-one accord.
• Stocks rose in Asia and Europe, and U.S. equity futures gained, as the world’s two largest economies try to reach a truce in a 20-month-long trade war that’s led to the largest volley of tariffs since the 1930s -- hitting some $500Bn in shipments going in both directions.
• The U.S. has pledged to slap tariffs on more Chinese imports if a deal isn’t struck by Dec. 15, and many economists are pinning forecasts for a global economic rebound next year on a cease-fire that avoids such an escalation.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Saudi Arabia is offering fellow OPEC+ members a quid pro quo: If you stop cheating, we’ll curb production.
• With just hours to go before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ meeting in Vienna, it was unclear if the kingdom was simply offering to return to its average output for 2019 -- ending a brief surge to compensate for the September attacks on its oil facilities -- or whether it was willing to take even more oil off a market that’s looking oversupplied in early 2020.
• What was becoming clear, according to OPEC delegates, was new Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman’s reluctance to endorse the status quo, in which countries including Iraq, Nigeria, and Russia have consistently failed to implement their pledged output cuts, leaving the kingdom carrying most of the burden of supporting crude prices.
• “The kingdom has explicitly communicated to OPEC that it will no longer tolerate under-compliance,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. “If it continues, Saudi Arabia can easily return to producing at or above its current quota.”

(Source: Bloomberg)