• A National Insurance Board of the Bahamas (NIB) executive revealed that NIB’s deficit this year would shrink by $27Mn due to the forthcoming rate increase set to take effect on July 1.
• The increases scheduled for July 1, 2024, will raise employer and employee contributions by 0.75 percentage points each. The employer contribution will climb to 6.65% from the existing 5.9%, while that for employees will increase from 3.9% to 4.65%.
• The contribution rates for self-employed and voluntarily insured individuals will also rise from the current 8.8% and 5%, respectively, to 10.3% and 6.5%.
• This adjustment forms part of a strategy to ensure the long-term survival of The Bahamas’ national social security system, meeting its benefit obligations to all citizens and legitimate persons who qualify for assistance.
• Dr Francis noted that, currently, NIB holds $1.4Bn in reserves. She highlighted that these reserves were pivotal during events such as Hurricane Dorian and the pandemic, enabling NIB to provide significant assistance during 2019 and 2020.
• Overall, the increase in NIB rates will have the effect of ensuring the medium-term viability of the social programs, thereby providing some level of relief to the Bahamian government by reducing the likely levels of expenditure which would have been spent if the NIB’s reserves were to exhaust in 2028 as previously predicted.

(Sources: Eyewitness News & NCBCM Research)

• Oil edged down on Tuesday after Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks in Cairo helped quell market fears of an expanding conflict in the Middle East, while worries about the outlook for U.S. interest rates dragged on the market.
• Brent crude futures dipped 19 cents, or 0.21%, to $88.21 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 20 cents, or 0.24%, to $82.43 a barrel.
• "The ongoing negotiation for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has led market participants to further unwind the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, while the upcoming Fed meeting also drives some near-term reservations," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
• Hamas negotiators left Cairo late on Monday to consult with the group's leadership after talks with Qatari and Egyptian mediators on a response to a phased truce proposal that Israel presented on the weekend.
• The delegation was expected to report back within two days, two Egyptian security sources said.

 (Source: Reuters)

• Energy ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) major democracies reached a deal to shut down their coal-fired power plants in the first half of the 2030s, in a significant step towards the transition away from fossil fuels. On Tuesday the ministers will issue a final communique detailing the G7 commitments to decarbonise their economies.
• Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Chairman of the G7 ministerial meeting in Turin, said the ministers were also pondering potential restrictions to Russian imports of liquefied natural gas to Europe which the European Commission is due to propose in the short-term.
• The agreement on coal marks a significant step in the direction indicated last year by the COP28 United Nations climate summit to phase out fossil fuels, of which coal is the most polluting.
• Italy last year produced 4.7% of its total electricity through a handful of coal-fired stations. Rome currently plans to turn off its plants by 2025, except on the island of Sardinia where the deadline is 2028. Germany and Japan coal has a bigger role, with the share of electricity produced by the fuel higher than 25% of the total last year.
• Last year under Japan's presidency, the G7 pledged to prioritise concrete steps towards phasing out coal power generation, falling short of indicating a specific deadline.
• Nuclear energy and biofuels are two other issues at the top of Italy's agenda for the meeting, and Pichetto said both would be mentioned in the final communique among options G7 nations can pick to decarbonise power generation and transports.
• On Tuesday the G7 bloc could also indicate the need for a six-fold increase in battery capacity - critical to store renewable energy, which is intermittent - by 2030 from 2022 levels, one source said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Clarendon based alumina production company, Jamalco, says it has earmarked millions of dollars for some capital work at the plant. Jamalco's Managing Director Marvin Jackson says the investment will aid the company in increasing production back to the levels seen before the August 2021 fire.

• "We're back almost to where we were before the fire; we have been at that level for the past month. Last month we were on plan. The plan is to get another boiler into service as of the end of July this year and we are also purchasing a new turbine for the refinery powerhouse. That is a value of US$40 million and that will go a far way in getting us back to where we were and getting the stability at the refinery," he outlined.

• Jackson said there is also optimism about the global demand for bauxite by-products. "The prices on the market have been going up, so that is reflecting in a positive light for us and our owners, Century Aluminum and the government of Jamaica, through CAP (Clarendon Alumina Production Limited), so...for now it has a positive outlook for the rest of the year."

• In May last year, US based Century Aluminum Company bought the 55% stake in Jamalco, which was previously held by the Noble Group. The government-owned Clarendon Alumina Production holds the remaining 45% in Jamalco.

• These developments bode well for alumina production. Given Jamaica’s main exports are crude bauxite and alumina, the anticipated growth in these subsectors should continue to contribute to the mining and quarrying sector’s export revenues and overall value added from the sector.

(Sources: RJR News and NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Mining, Floyd Green, revealed promising insights during Wednesday’s post-Cabinet press briefing at Jamaica House. According to preliminary data, the agricultural sector experienced remarkable growth, surpassing a notable 10% mark in the first quarter of 2024.

• Green commended the diligence and commitment of farmers, attributing the sector’s success to their unwavering efforts. “However, amidst this achievement, he emphasised the pressing need to address the challenges posed by an ongoing drought cycle, significantly impacting agricultural operations across the nation.

• Highlighting the proactive measures taken by the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA), Green informed that teams are actively engaged in assessing the drought’s repercussions on produce, particularly focusing on vegetables.

• Extended periods of drought typically exert severe strain on vegetable cultivation, especially affecting leafy greens. In response to the looming threat of crop losses, Green outlined the government’s concerted efforts in drought mitigation. The primary objective is to minimise losses and support farmers in safeguarding their crops against adverse environmental conditions.

• Despite these efforts, Green acknowledged the likelihood of some fallout but remained optimistic about mitigating the impact through proactive measures. Green highlighted collaborative initiatives, including meetings with greenhouse clusters, aimed at bolstering vegetable production to maintain consistent supplies amidst the challenges posed by the drought.

• In addition to these initiatives, there is a need for more investments from the Government to enhance the island’s water storage infrastructure as a more sustainable solution to the trucking of water to drought-affected communities. There is also significant room for the investment in and promotion of climate-smart farming practices, among local farmers to protect local agricultural production, inflation, and overall economic activity from the vagaries of climate change.

(Sources: Caribbean News Weekly and NCBCM Research)

• Samuel Johnson, the CEO of the International Airport Development Company, recently shared updates on the ongoing airport project for the Commonwealth of Dominica. Covering a vast area of 22000 square meters, this project holds promise for boosting tourism in the region once it’s completed.

• Key attention is being paid to Runway 15, which, due to wind patterns, is identified as the primary spot for aircraft takeoffs and landings. Presently, efforts are concentrated on clearing and preparing this section before advancing to complete the entire runway. “The runway is designed to enable landing and takeoff in both directions and because of the winds, we expect 95% of the time your landing will be from runway 15,” he stated.

• Johnson elaborated on the excavation and alignment processes crucial for constructing the runway, highlighting its dual functionality for both takeoffs and landings. In addition to runway development, plans include constructing a parallel taxiway to enhance the airport’s capacity for accommodating multiple aircraft simultaneously, as MMC Development Ltd., the airport project developer, is overseeing these efforts.

• Johnson also mentioned that two other areas are under construction: the Anzime and Crapo Hall quarry sites. These sites have been established to supply extra materials and aggregate for the project’s support. Johnson also addressed safety concerns by mentioning the implementation of GPS tracking for on-site drivers.

• Emphasising the importance of minimising disruptions to local communities and tourism, Johnson underscored the collaboration with the Public Works Department to address any road damage caused by the project promptly. Johnson expressed confidence in the project’s progress, noting that it’s proceeding smoothly and according to schedule.

(Source: Caribbean News Now)

• Brazil's consumer prices rose slightly less than expected in the mid-April reading, data from statistics agency IBGE showed on Friday. Prices in Latin America's largest economy rose 0.21% in the month to mid-March, below the 0.29% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters.

• The group comprised of food and beverages reported the greatest price hike in the period, growing 0.61%, which accounted for 0.13 percentage points of the total increase. The transportation group, on the other hand, was the only one to report disinflation, as airfare prices fell 12.2%.

• This took the inflation of the previous 12 months to 3.77%, slowing down from 4.14% in the 12 months to mid-March and also below expectations of a 3.86% increase. The reading marked the first time since July last year the figure came in below 4%.

• "All told, the inflation picture continues to improve in Brazil, thanks to favourable base effects, the lagged effect of high-interest rates and softening domestic demand," said Andres Abadia, Chief Latam Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

• This adds to the view that interest rate cuts will continue in the near term, he wrote in a note to clients. Brazil's central bank delivered 50-basis-point interest rate cuts at each of its last six meetings, but Governor Roberto Campos Neto has opened the door for that easing pace to be reduced.

• Given the recent sell-off of the Brazilian real and a more cautious instance from the monetary authority committee, "the most probable scenario is a 25 basis-point cut" on the May meeting, Abadia added.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter amid a surge in imports and a small build-up of unsold goods at businesses, signs of solid demand that, together with an acceleration in inflation, reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before September.
• The cooler-than-expected growth reported by the Commerce Department in its snapshot of first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which also reflected a downshift in government spending, exaggerated the moderation in economic activity. Domestic demand, a better growth measure, was strong as consumer spending moderated slightly while business investment picked up and the housing recovery gained steam.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP would rise at a 2.4% rate, with estimates ranging from a 1.0% pace to a 3.1% rate. However, the actual GDP reading increased at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2022, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
• The first-quarter growth pace was below what U.S. central bank officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%. Excluding inventories, government spending and trade, the economy grew at a 3.1% rate after expanding at a 3.3% rate in the fourth quarter. That also dispels the notion that government spending was fueling the economy.
• A significant slowdown in the labour market is not yet evident. The Labour Department's weekly jobless claims report showed initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 in the week ending April 20.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Federal Reserve's latest financial stability report was good news for anyone worried that a record run of interest rate hikes might overstress the banking system or trigger a recession with companies and households pushed into default through a broad credit crackdown.
• Instead, the Fed is wrestling with an economy that has sloughed off tight monetary policy to such a degree that U.S. central bank officials are without a clear view of what to expect and are divided over issues like productivity, the economy's underlying potential, and even whether the current policy interest rate is as restrictive as imagined.
• New GDP figures released on Thursday highlighted the dilemma, with the economy growing just 1.6% over the first three months of the year, below expectations, and a marked slowdown from the 3.4% registered in the fourth quarter of 2023. It was the first reading below the Fed's 1.8% estimate of the economy's potential since the second quarter of 2022.
• Stubborn inflation figures are opposing the underwhelming GDP Q1 release, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which came in at 3.4% in the first quarter, well above the Fed's 2% target.
• Across the economy, a wave of tight credit seems to have come and gone - bank lending is growing, corporate credit spreads are narrow, and household balance sheets are largely healthy. A recently updated Fed index of overall financial conditions showed there was virtually no impact on economic growth right now from the central bank's monetary policy or the broader credit conditions it is intended to influence.
• Contrary to Fed officials assessment that policy is restrictive, current credit conditions in the economy are "consistent with above-trend growth. That tells me that the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy in the U.S. has been much less effective" than elsewhere, said Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research.
• Fed officials themselves are unsettled on whether they still need the economy to slow for inflation to fall or whether the "immaculate" influence of productivity and other factors will do the job, an important issue since one view leans towards tighter policy and the other towards easing. The release of key inflation data on Friday is expected to show the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures remained well above the central bank's 2% target, a possible sign that progress has stalled.

(Source: Reuters)

• On April 2nd, consistent with the Government’s thrust to develop a robust and comprehensive market conduct and consumer protection framework for the financial sector, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) issued Automated Banking Machines (ABM) Service-Level Standards for deposit-taking institutions (DTIs).
• Senior Deputy Governor, BOJ, Dr. Wayne Robinson, says this market conduct and consumer protection framework will be established with the implementation of the Twin Peaks model of financial sector supervision. The Twin Peaks model, with a scheduled timeline for its legislation to reach Parliament by 2025, will see the responsibility for prudential supervision and regulation of DTIs being vested in the BOJ.
• However, the development and implementation of the Twin Peaks Model “will take time”, and given the urgent nature of the ABM problem(s) at hand, Mr. Robinson noted that “as a first step in developing this framework where we can provide adequate protection that addresses consumer needs, the Bank decided to begin to roll out these guidelines for ABM service-level Standards”.
• The ABM Standards address issues relating to the deployment of ABMs, accessibility and ease-of-use, availability of cash, ABM fees and charges, infrastructure maintenance and the management of disruptions, client safety and security, fraud minimisation, and financial education of ABM users.
• A statement issued by BOJ on the day the Standards were promulgated indicates that the DTIs have a nine-month transition period within which to bring themselves into conformity with all the new ABM guidelines. The BOJ deemed this timeline reasonable and a feasible window “for them to be in a position to start meeting the majority, if not all of the Standards”.
• Dr. Robinson noted that the DTIs have been “very supportive” of the Standards, noting that the Jamaica Bankers Association has indicated so publicly. “We have been seeing improvements, certainly compared to the experiences last year… and when you look at the data that was published, you will see those improvements. A number of banks have met the benchmark for the number of ABMs in operation and also met the benchmark, in terms of the uptime,” he adds.

(Source: JIS)