• The Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce (TT Chamber) and the St Kitts and Nevis Chamber of Industry and Commerce formalised a significant step forward in regional economic collaboration with the signing of a trade and business development alliance agreement.
• The agreement reinforces the shared commitment of both chambers – proud members of the Caribbean Chambers of Commerce (CARICHAM) network – to deepen co-operation, promote regional integration, and strengthen the voice of the private sector across the Caribbean.
• Through this partnership, the chambers aim to: collaborate on joint initiatives that expand economic and social opportunities for businesses and communities in both TT and St Kitts and Nevis; share research and technical expertise in sectors of mutual interest, such as tourism, financial services, agriculture and renewable energy; undertake collaborative research to assess trade feasibility, develop best practices and promote cultural and commercial exchange between the two countries; facilitate knowledge transfer and capacity-building programmes to strengthen institutional and private sector capabilities.
• It also aims to: build and deepen linkages with government agencies, investment promotion entities and other key trade and development stakeholders; organise and support bilateral trade missions and business delegations that further the objectives of the alliance; advance the UN's sustainable development goals (SDGs) through aligned private sector actions and policies and; identify and address trade barriers, market access constraints and regulatory challenges in a co-operative and solutions-oriented manner.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Wall Street indexes ended lower, oil kept climbing, and U.S. borrowing costs fell on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump left the Group of Seven summit early and investors awaited a series of interest rate decisions by major central banks. Trump returned to Washington a day before the summit ends as the Israel-Iran conflict intensified, saying U.S. patience was wearing thin but that he would not kill Iran's leader "for now."
• Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell, indicating stronger demand for a safe haven as investors weigh the conflict as well as prepare to parse Fed Chair Jerome Powell's tone at a scheduled update on Wednesday. Trump's early departure from Canada nixed hopes for more progress on issues like the tariffs he has promised to impose.
• "The market was anxious to hopefully hear updates on trade agreements out of the G7 and the news of Trump leaving early was disappointing, although we all know why," said Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management.
• "The market is paying attention to the (Middle East) conflict, but it feels that's contained to those two countries," Sterner said. "It does cause concern, especially if Iran does anything with the Strait of Hormuz," he added, noting that around 20% of the world's oil supply passes through that waterway. So far, there has been no noticeable interruption to oil flows, and Qatar said its production at the world's largest gas field was steady after an Israeli air strike led Iran to partially suspend production.
• S. crude continued to surge and settled 4.46% higher at $74.97 a barrel, while Brent rose to $76.54 per barrel, settling up 4.52% on the day. Stocks stayed under pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending losses to end 0.70% lower on the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.84% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.91%.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. Senate Republicans on Monday, June 16, 2025, unveiled proposed changes to President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill that would make some business-related tax breaks permanent while making more limited, the deduction for state and local income taxes, angering some colleagues in the House of Representatives.
• The different versions of the bill in the two narrowly Republican-controlled chambers of Congress could complicate party leaders' goal of passing the bill, which is the centrepiece of Trump's domestic agenda, before a self-imposed July 4 deadline. The new changes ran into early resistance from two separate Senate Republican camps: those who want deeper spending cuts to attack the growing federal deficit and others looking to preserve social safety nets, including the Medicaid healthcare program for lower-income Americans.
• One big change would involve maintaining the current $10,000 cap on federal deductions for state and local income taxes, well below the $40,000 limit in the version approved by the House last month. That drew immediate criticism from House Republicans whose constituents would benefit from the higher deduction. But a committee document shows the amount is subject to continuing negotiations. The Senate Finance Committee proposal would also cap tax breaks on tipped income and overtime pay that Trump promised during the 2024 campaign. The House version would allow deductions on tipped income for those earning up to $160,000 a year.
• The bill would extend the 2017 tax cuts that were Trump's main legislative achievement during his first term in office and would also boost spending for the military and border security. The measure raises the federal government's self-imposed debt ceiling by $5Tn, a step Congress must take by some time this summer or risk a devastating default on the nation's $36.2Tn in debt.
• With a 53-47 Senate majority and a 220-212 edge in the House, Republicans can afford to lose few votes to pass a bill that faces united Democratic opposition.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite modest top-line growth, for the six months (6M) ended April 30, 2025, The Limners and Bards Limited’s (LAB) recorded a 58.3% decline in earnings driven primarily by higher direct and indirect costs.
• Revenue for the period rose 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) to J$460.12Mn reflecting a 30.4% surge in revenue during Q1, underpinned by strong performances in the Production and Media segments. However, the 6 months outturn was stymied by a 23.0% decline in Q2 due to seasonal factors and the timing of project deliveries.
• The company also saw an increase in direct cost to $284.75Mn, up from $265.19Mn. As a result, with direct costs outpacing the growth in revenues, gross profit for the 6M period fell by 2.7% YoY to J$175.46Mn. The results were also impacted by the fact that a higher proportion of revenue was derived from its Media segment, which typically carries lower margins relative to the company’s Agency segment.
• Operating expenses increased by 10.3% (+J$14.4Mn) to J$153.5Mn, largely due to strategic investment in talent across content creation, business development, and client services. Management emphasised that while these investments have contributed to higher short-term costs, they are considered essential to scaling the company’s operations and building long-term shareholder value.
• Against this background, net profit for the six-month period of $20.6Mn, a 58.3% decline compared to the same period in the prior year.
• Looking forward, The LAB is focused on executing its “Five-in-25” content strategy, geographic expansion of its Agency and Production services, and integration of AI to drive efficiency and cost reduction. The company also plans to continue monetising its intellectual assets and scaling its proprietary content portfolio.
• As at Monday, the stock closed at J$1.10, reflecting a 13.4% decline year-to-date. It currently trades at a P/E ratio of 17.49x, slightly below the Junior Market 'Other' average of 18.6x.

(Sources: NCBCM Research & LAB Financial Statements)

• Main Event Entertainment Group Limited (MEEG) reported a net loss of J$9.34Mn for the second quarter ended March 30, 2025, down from a net profit of J$20.02Mn in the prior year’s comparable period. The decline came against the backdrop of weaker revenue performance.
• Revenues for the quarter totalled J$306.37Mn were down 26.8% or J$112.21Mn year-over-year. Management attributes the weakness to softer demand in key segments such as Entertainment & Promotions and M-Style Décor. The quarter was also affected by lower client marketing budgets, fewer large-scale productions, and the nonrecurrence of several high-value projects that boosted Q2 2024. However, the company noted that new and returning clients helped cushion the revenue decline.
• In line with the drop in revenues, direct expenses also declined by 36.2% to J$140.55Mn, contributing to a rise in operating profit to J$12.72Mn, more than double the J$5.82Mn posted in the previous quarter. Still, the improvement was insufficient to offset overall earnings pressures, resulting in the quarterly net loss.
• Against the background of weaker Q2 results, for the six-month period, revenue declined to J$891.40Mn, down from J$986.33Mn in the same period last year. Gross profit also declined by 9.0% to J$467.49Mn, despite direct expenses falling to $J423.91Mn from $J472.44Mn. However, the gross profit margin improved by 34bps to 52.44% from 52.10%, reflecting tighter project cost controls and enhanced resource planning.
• Overall, for the first half of the year, MEEG’S net profit amounted to $64.329Mn, a decrease of $55.942Mn or 46.5% from the $120.271Mn earned in the comparative period. This downswing was primarily driven by the reduction in revenue and other operating income, which was not fully offset by cost reductions.
• MEEG continues to pursue strategic diversification, with increased focus on developing proprietary, revenue-generating events to cushion against project-based volatility. Management expects these initiatives to support earnings in the latter half of FY2025.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, the stock closed at J$9.97, reflecting a 14.8% year-to-date decline. The Stock currently trades at a P/B of 3.16x, which is below the Junior Market 'Other' average of 2.30x

(Sources: NCBCM Research & MEEG Financial Statements)

• Trinidad and Tobago is expected to run a balance of payments (BOP) deficit in 2025, as money flowing out of the country due to rising import costs and overseas investments outpaces earnings from exports, according to the Central Bank. Consequently, its overall BOP is anticipated to record a deficit in 2025.
• This performance will stem from a surplus on the current account, owing to a healthy goods balance, coupled with a net outflow on the financial account, driven by increased portfolio and other investments. The varying tariffs implemented by the US can also add upward pressure to import prices.
• Over the fourth quarter of 2024, the goods balance decreased by 37.5% (year-on-year) to US$0.42Mn, when compared to the similar quarter of 2023. Despite a minor improvement in exports, it was insufficient to offset the growth in imports. Total export earnings increased by 3.5% to US$2.43Bn in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• The slightly higher outturn stemmed from an improvement in non-energy exports, which expanded by US$0.12Bn or 30.4% (year-on-year) to US$0.50Bn. However, this positive performance was partially offset by a slight decline in energy exports, which fell by 1.7% year-on-year to US$1.93Bn in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. The reduction in energy exports was attributable to a sizeable 35.4% decline in the gas sub-category on account of lower international gas prices and export volumes.
• The country’s total imports increased by US$0.33Bn to US$2.01Bn during the fourth quarter of 2024 as non-fuel imports picked up by US$0.22Bn or 16% (year-on-year) to US$1.60Bn. Notably, this outturn was driven by an increase in imports of manufactured goods and capital imports.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Mexico's central bank should avoid cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points until inflation resumes a clear downward trajectory, Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath noted, adding his view is in the minority among the five-member board.
• Despite concerns over inflation, Heath believes the central bank will vote at the end of June to lower the key interest rate by that magnitude in what would be its fourth consecutive cut of that size, a decision he said he is sceptical of.
• "I believe it is time to pause and not continue lowering the rate at the magnitude we have done in recent decisions, in order to give ourselves time to better evaluate the evolution of the data," Heath said.
• Debate over any rate cut underscores a key challenge confronting Mexico's central bank as it seeks to ease rising inflation while also stimulating Mexico's sluggish economy.
• Headline inflation in Mexico accelerated to 4.42% in May, exceeding the upper end of the central bank's target range of 3% plus or minus a percentage point. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and oil, rose to 4.06%, its highest level in almost a year.
• Still, Banxico, as the central bank is known, currently forecasts inflation will fall in the third quarter before converging to its target by the third quarter of 2026. In May, Banxico cut its interest rate to 8.5% and reiterated it could make a further reduction depending on inflation. The bank also emphasised that a slowdown in the economy is expected and lowered its GDP growth forecast to 0.1% for 2025 from a previous 0.6% estimate.

(Source: Reuters)

• The dollar index (DXY)¹ has declined to 98-100 after trading at around 110 at the start of the year, with the price action having decoupled from the correlation with 10-year bond yields.
• Several factors led to the weakening of the United States Dollar (USD). First, the sharp rise in equity and bond market volatility associated with the April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ prompted an unwinding of the carry-trade, pressuring the dollar lower. Second, global institutional investors, especially Taiwanese insurers holding long unhedged U.S. assets, unwound or hedged these positions, adding downside pressure to the USD. Third, President Trump’s mid-April criticism of the Fed increased investor unease, dampening appetite for US assets.
• Consequently, Fitch Solutions expects the DXY to trade within 95-100 in the coming months, as these factors continue to weigh on the dollar in the short term. Moreover, the agency anticipates lower growth will lead to roughly 50 basis points (bps) of interest rate cuts, while a widening fiscal deficit, though loosely correlated, may also weaken the dollar.
• However, downside risks are somewhat limited compared to several months ago. The agency sees little chance of the DXY falling significantly below 95, contrasting with other forecasts that target levels of 90 or lower. The decline in the DXY is constrained by the belief that trade-related volatility has peaked, reducing downward pressure.
• That said, while the US dollar’s share of global reserves has decreased over the past decade, this does not indicate a rejection of the USD. Instead, reserve holdings have diversified into a basket of currencies, including the Australian and Canadian dollars, sterling, the Chinese yuan, and the Japanese yen. This shift reflects a more globalised economy where companies, investors, and banks manage assets and liabilities across multiple currencies.
  
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  ¹The U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The U.S. dollar index is currently calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six foreign currencies, which include the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF).

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Following Israel’s massive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and top commanders and nuclear scientists in the early hours of June 13, 2025, Fitch Solutions believes that the conflict could escalate in the near term. Israel is likely to conduct further strikes over the coming days, and Iran will seek to respond forcefully.
• Notably, Tehran’s (Tehra - Capital of Iran) retaliation is expected to be more forceful than what was previously witnessed in the tit-for-tat strikes with Israel on two occasions in 2024, but the full extent of the response will depend on the regime’s appetite to escalate as well as its ability to do so.
• The deaths of the armed forces chief of staff and commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could complicate Iran’s response. As such, Fitch sees the middle scenario in the infographic as the most likely scenario.
• Iran will also need to decide whether to strike at United States (U.S.) interests, most notably bases, in the Middle East. Although the U.S. is not directly involved in Israel’s attacks, Tehran could still hold Washington responsible. That said, Iran is expected to refrain from attacking U.S. military assets in the region because the Trump administration would likely respond very aggressively, focusing on strategic military and nuclear targets in Iran, working alongside Israel. This could lead to a full-scale war that could weaken the regime.
• If the conflict escalates significantly, Iran could also attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20-30% of all oil and LNG exports pass. However, the U.S. would step up its intervention against Iran, despite Trump’s aversion to becoming dragged into another protracted conflict in the Middle East.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Seprod Ltd. (Seprod) announced that its takeover bid for AS Bryden & Sons Holdings (ASBH) Ltd was oversubscribed, as shareholders tendered approximately 465.48Mn shares, surpassing the 447.49Mn the company initially sought to acquire.
• The ordinary shares of ASBH that have been tendered are subject to verification by Republic Wealth Management Limited (RWML)
• Given the oversubscription, Seprod will accept the shares on a pro-rata basis of approximately 96.1%. Seprod currently owns 50.1% of ASBH and will own 80.0% of ASBH’s outstanding shares following the acceptance.
• The stock prices of Seprod and ASBH have declined by 12.2% and 13.4% since the start of the year, respectively, closing at $76.56 and $26.00 on June 12, 2025. Both stocks currently trade above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average P/E of 15.5x, with P/E ratios of 25.4x and 28.5x, respectively.

(Sources: Seprod & NCBCM Research)