• Costa Rica has recorded seven consecutive months of declining international tourist arrivals, a troubling trend that began in September 2024 and persisted through March 2025, according to the Costa Rican Tourism Institute (ICT). The downturn, coinciding with the country’s traditional high season, has raised alarms within the tourism sector, a cornerstone of the national economy.
• In February 2025, only 270,810 tourists arrived by air, a 7.0% drop from 291,090 in February 2024, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, ICT data shows. Preliminary reports indicate a further 3.0% decrease in March 2025, extending the streak to seven months. While exact figures for the full period are pending, industry estimates project a 15–20% reduction in arrivals by year-end 2025, compared to the 2.6 million visitors welcomed in 2024.
• The decline follows a strong early 2024, with a 14.5% increase in arrivals from January to June compared to 2023. However, the late-year slowdown has eroded gains, particularly from key markets. North American arrivals fell 7.2% in February 2025, with the United States (150,320 visitors, down 7.3%), Canada (37,975, down 5.8%), and Mexico (6,351, down 12.4%) showing significant drops. European visitors declined even more sharply, by 11.4%.
• The National Chamber of Tourism (CANATUR) and industry group Turismo por Costa Rica attribute the downturn to several factors. The appreciation of the Costa Rican colón, now at ₡500 per U.S. dollar (down from ₡700 in mid-2022), has made Costa Rica pricier than regional competitors like Colombia or the Dominican Republic.
• Growing perceptions of insecurity also deter visitors. A U.S. Embassy Level 2 Travel Advisory issued in December 2024 cited rising crime, with incidents reported near Juan Santamaría International Airport in February 2025. Over 6,300 tourists have reported crimes like theft and assaults since 2020, and international media coverage of drug-related violence has amplified concerns. “Safety concerns are scaring people away,” Roberts noted.
• Reduced air connectivity further exacerbates the issue. Seat availability at Juan Santamaría International Airport dropped 8%, while Daniel Oduber International Airport in Liberia saw a 19% decline. Health alerts, including a histoplasmosis spike linked to caving and a ban on shellfish harvesting due to paralytic toxins, have also raised traveler caution.
• Tourism, contributing 8.2% to Costa Rica’s GDP and 8.8% of employment, is critical to rural areas like Guanacaste, Limón, and Monteverde, where job alternatives are scarce. CANATUR has urged the Central Bank to address the colón’s appreciation, warning of potential business closures.

(Source: Tico Times)

• A delegation from the Dominican Republic is set to hold its first high-level meeting with U.S. officials this Tuesday in Washington, D.C., to discuss the recent 10% global tariff increase announced by the United States.
• This proactive move positions the Dominican Republic as one of the first countries in the region to seek early engagement with the U.S. on this issue. The government aims to protect its productive sector and maintain strong bilateral relations. Following the April 2 U.S. announcement, the Dominican government swiftly responded by convening an emergency meeting, forming technical committees, and initiating diplomatic outreach to U.S. authorities.
• The meeting reflects a strategic effort to build communication channels and seek collaborative solutions, reinforcing the Dominican Republic’s commitment to mutual cooperation and economic diplomacy.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The International Monetary Fund cut its economic growth forecast for Japan and projected the central bank would lift interest rates at a slower-than-expected pace due to the impact of higher U.S. tariffs.
• The downgrade highlights the damage U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs could inflict on Japan's export-reliant economy and comes ahead of the Bank of Japan's two-day policy meeting concluding on May 1. "The effect of tariffs announced on April 2 and associated uncertainty offset the expected strengthening of private consumption with above-inflation wage growth boosting household disposable income," the IMF highlighted.
• Japan's economy is expected to grow 0.6% in 2026, down 0.2 points from its forecast made in January. The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy rates are expected to be lifted "at a slower pace than assumed in October 2024", the report said without elaborating when the next rate hike could come.
• The central bank is expected to gradually raise interest rates over the medium term "toward a neutral setting of about 1.5%", or the level consistent with keeping inflation anchored at its 2% target, the IMF noted.
• The BOJ last year ended a decade-long massive stimulus programme and raised interest rates to 0.5% in January on the view that Japan was on the cusp of sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target. While Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the BOJ's readiness to keep raising rates, Trump's tariff decisions have complicated its decision on when and how far it could hike.
• Trump has hit Japan with 24% tariffs on its exports to the U.S., although, like most of his levies, they have been paused until early July. A 10% universal rate stays in place, as does a 25% duty on cars, which is expected to hit Japan's economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain's economic growth forecast for 2025 received the sharpest downgrade of any major European economy from the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday as the UK braces for the global fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.
• The Fund also said British inflation would be higher this year than it had thought in January, and higher than in any other Group of Seven country - showing the economic risks facing finance minister Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who will attend IMF spring meetings this week. The higher U.S. import tariffs were likely to reduce pressure on inflation in Britain, as in most economies, Gourinchas said. BoE rate-setter Megan Greene had earlier said she expected the diversion of exports away from the U.S. would push down inflation in Britain.
• Such a hawkish message may help Japan fend off criticism from Trump that Tokyo is keeping the yen artificially weak to give its exports a competitive trade advantage, some analysts say. At the two-day policy meeting ending on May 1, the BOJ will cut its economic growth forecasts and warn of escalating risks from Trump's sweeping tariffs that are set to dent global demand, the sources said.
• Despite the weaker outlook, the Fund bumped up its forecast for British inflation this year by 0.7 percentage points from its January forecast, to 3.1%. On average, the IMF's inflation forecast for advanced economies rose 0.4 percentage points, while that for the United States, where Trump's tariffs will hit prices directly, jumped 1.0 point.
• The IMF noted that the increase in its forecast for UK inflation "primarily reflects one-off regulated price changes". The IMF further noted that it expected British inflation to slow to 2.2% in 2026, close to the BoE's 2% target.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the six months ended February 29, 2025 (6 Month FY 2024), Sygnus Real Estate Finance (SRF) reported a net loss of J$197.45Mn compared to a J$320.13Mn loss the year prior, primarily due to an increase in its stake in the One Belmont property.
• Interest income rose by 21.9% to J$107.41Mn, up from J$88.12Mn for the 6 months ended February 2025. However, a sharp 145.9% increase in interest expense led to a net interest loss of J$215.85Mn, which widened from J$87.75Mn in the comparable period prior.
• Despite the weaker net interest income, total investment income (core revenues) improved to J$26.59Mn, reversing a loss of J$55.31Mn in 6M FY 2024. This turnaround was driven by lease and other income, a gain on disposal of financial instruments of J$33.73Mn, a gain on acquisition of shares in Joint Venture of J$162.20Mn and share of gain on joint ventures of J$39.26Mn.
• The gain on acquisition of shares reflects SRF’s strategic move to increase its stake in the 9-storey One Belmont commercial tower to 86% from 70%. SRF also acquired a 71% stake in a newly formed joint venture—5658 LMR Limited—whose assets include two resort villa properties in Ocho Rios, St. Ann.
• As SRF transitions into its second investment life cycle, investment activity is expected to ramp up. For the period, the Group deployed J$1.39Bn in new investment commitments—an increase of 119% (or J$753.09Mn) versus J$633.00Mn in the prior year. This was mainly driven by the investment of J$974.36Mn in 4 Real estate investment notes (REINs) during the period, SRF’s acquisition of additional shares in an existing joint venture, and property additions to strategic assets.
• SRF is executing on its strategic objective of seeking to substantially increase its investment in new REINs at higher interest rates with funds generated from ongoing investment exits. The entity has sold investment properties located at 56 and 58 Lady Musgrave Road, and the Hillcrest, Spanish Penwood in the past year. This resulted in total assets slightly decreasing by 0.2% but was offset by an uptick in REINs (+25.3%) and joint ventures (+64.0%).
• SRF’s stock price has depreciated 17.1% year-to-date. The stock price closed Wednesday’s trading session at $8.14 and currently trades at a P/E of 11.97x, above the Main Market Real Estate Sector Average of 6.85x.

(Sources: Sygnus Real Estate Finance & NCBCM Research)

• More than 7,000 jobs could potentially be created from the development of the Raintree Commercial Complex, located just outside Kingston at Caymanas Estate in Ferry Pen, St. Catherine.
• Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, on Wednesday (April 16) broke ground and witnessed the contract signing for phase/block one of the project, which forms part of the Caymanas Estate Development Area. Dr. Holness explained that of the total, 2,000 jobs will be created during the construction phase of the project, while over the long term, the complex has the potential to accommodate more than 5,000 permanent jobs.
• He further noted that the Raintree Project is projected to attract capital investments of at least J$3.8Bn in infrastructure and will support long-term private investments exceeding J$15.0Bn. “The over $15 billion of projected private investment on this site, driven by the sale of development lots, will have a multiplier effect, feeding directly into the local economy, creating demand for jobs, services and transportation, and that is how development works best when it generates self-reinforcing cycles of opportunities and progress,” the Prime Minister said.
• The Prime Minister noted that Raintree Commercial Complex is the first phase of a wider transformation of more than 3,400 acres of developable land in the critical area at the crossroads of Kingston, Portmore and Spanish Town.
• Holness also pointed out that the Caymanas Estate Development Block One encompasses 108 acres of subdivided land dedicated to commercial and light industrial development. He added that the space has been zoned, master planned and environmentally assessed to support a new generation of enterprise and employment.

(Source: JIS)

• The escalating trade war between the United States and China is creating significant uncertainty for Costa Rica’s export-driven economy. This month, the U.S. imposed a 145% tariff on imports from mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao, combining a 125% reciprocal tariff with a 20% existing levy, citing systemic trade imbalances. China retaliated with a 34% tariff on U.S. imports, restrictions on rare earth minerals, and a formal complaint to the World Trade Organisation, intensifying global trade tensions. Since April 12, China has increased its tariff on US goods further to 125.0%
• Costa Rica, heavily reliant on the U.S. for 47% of its $9.4 billion in annual exports, faces a 10% U.S. tariff on its goods, effective April 5, 2025. While this is significantly lower than China’s tariff, it threatens key sectors like medical devices, coffee, and pineapples. Economists warn of reduced U.S. demand, with José Luis Arce predicting negative economic growth if U.S. consumption slows, and Gerardo Corrales forecasting a modest exchange rate increase due to lower export revenues. Additionally, a 25% U.S. tariff on foreign-made cars could raise shipping costs for Costa Rica’s logistics sector, further straining regional trade.
• The Costa Rican Chamber of Foreign Trade (CRECEX) is closely monitoring the situation, noting a potential silver lining. “Costa Rica benefits from a more level global playing field, as a 90-day suspension of higher tariffs on most countries—except China—temporarily standardises competition,” CRECEX stated. Alongside allies like El Salvador, Chile, and Singapore, Costa Rica’s 10% tariff provides a competitive edge over Asian exporters facing steeper duties.
• The Costa Rican government is responding proactively. “We have intensified constructive dialogue with U.S. partners to secure the best market access conditions, leveraging the CAFTA-DR agreement, which ensures tariff-free access for most exports,” said Foreign Trade Minister Manuel Tovar. The Ministry is also pursuing trade diversification, eyeing expanded agreements with the EU, Asia, and Latin America, building on existing pacts with Singapore and Chile.
• However, challenges loom. Small coffee farmers, already dealing with global price volatility, fear reduced U.S. demand could squeeze livelihoods, according to the National Chamber of Agriculture. Costa Rican consumers may also face higher prices for electronics and textiles as global supply chains adjust to China’s reduced U.S. exports.

(Source: Tico Times)

• The Animal Health Laboratories of the Ministry of Agricultural Development (MIDA) have approved three pre-audits from technical delegations from the United States (US), putting Panama one step closer to exporting beef to the US market.  
• During laboratory inspections, key aspects such as infrastructure, sample handling, quality controls, health traceability, and epidemiological surveillance systems were evaluated.  Reinaldo Viveros, National Director of Animal Health at MIDA, reported that only one step remains before submitting the formal equivalence request for meat exports. This includes the regulation of the Law of the Directorate of Food Control and Veterinary Surveillance.
• Meeting these requirements places the country in a privileged position to begin exporting beef to the world’s most demanding markets, which will not only strengthen confidence in the local health system but also boost the economic development of the livestock market. 
• Panama is estimated to export $40 million worth of meat to the U.S. annually, according to projections shared in 2024 by the National Cattle Ranchers Association (ANAGAN). Panama's advancement toward exporting beef to the U.S. could aid in enhancing fiscal stability by generating critical foreign exchange revenue.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The U.S. economy could slow unless interest rates are lowered immediately, President Donald Trump highlighted, repeating his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who says rates should not be lowered until it is clearer that Trump's tariff plans won't lead to a persistent surge in inflation.
• The comments, and the administration's seemingly intensifying pressure on a Fed chair Trump has stated he would like to see gone, sent stock markets lower and bond yields higher as investors and analysts mulled the fallout should Trump ignite a fight over the Fed's monetary policy independence and try to remove Powell before the end of his term a little over a year from now.
• Trump's repeated threats to fire Powell come as he tries to goad the Fed into quickly cutting interest rates to mitigate a widely expected economic slowdown and possible harm to the labor market due to his tariff and other policies, while Fed policymakers urge caution on concerns inflation, which remains above their 2% target, could be pushed higher by the import taxes. The Fed next meets on May 6-7 and is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate steady in the current 4.25% to 4.50% range
• The growth outlook and overall sentiment have both been falling as Trump ratcheted up efforts to impose import taxes on goods from major U.S. trading partners and many core products, with top economists raising the estimated odds of a recession this year. While inflation is expected to decline in upcoming readings, there is broad agreement as well that the import tariffs Trump plans to impose will drive it back to perhaps 4% or higher through the rest of the year.
• Fed officials say that while that price shock may prove temporary, allowing them to cut rates eventually, they worry it could lead to more persistent inflation that would require them to keep credit conditions tighter.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan is expected to signal next week that risks from higher U.S. tariffs won't derail a cycle of rising wages and inflation seen as crucial to keep raising interest rates, said four sources familiar with its thinking.
• The assessment, to be included in its quarterly outlook report due on May 1, will underscore the BOJ's desire to keep alive market expectations of further interest rate hikes, even though the timing of its next move could be months away.
• "It's hard to predict the exact damage to the economy from (President Donald) Trump's tariffs at this stage," said one of the sources. On the other hand, it's clear intensifying job shortages will pressure Japanese companies to keep hiking pay. The language is subject to change as there is no consensus within the BOJ on details of the report, which will not be finalised until closer to the April 30-May 1 meeting.
• Such a hawkish message may help Japan fend off criticism from Trump that Tokyo is keeping the yen artificially weak to give its exports a competitive trade advantage, some analysts say. At the two-day policy meeting ending on May 1, the BOJ will cut its economic growth forecasts and warn of escalating risks from Trump's sweeping tariffs that are set to dent global demand, the sources said.
• The central bank may also push back the expected timing for sustainably meeting its 2% inflation target, which was seen around the latter half of fiscal 2025 in current projections made in January.
• With markets still volatile, the central bank is widely expected to keep short-term rates steady at 0.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Still, many BOJ policymakers are wary of concluding that further rate hikes are completely off the table, given a lack of hard data on the hit from tariffs to the economy and uncertainty over the outcome of bilateral trade negotiations.

(Source: Reuters)