• The Animal Health Laboratories of the Ministry of Agricultural Development (MIDA) have approved three pre-audits from technical delegations from the United States (US), putting Panama one step closer to exporting beef to the US market.  
• During laboratory inspections, key aspects such as infrastructure, sample handling, quality controls, health traceability, and epidemiological surveillance systems were evaluated.  Reinaldo Viveros, National Director of Animal Health at MIDA, reported that only one step remains before submitting the formal equivalence request for meat exports. This includes the regulation of the Law of the Directorate of Food Control and Veterinary Surveillance.
• Meeting these requirements places the country in a privileged position to begin exporting beef to the world’s most demanding markets, which will not only strengthen confidence in the local health system but also boost the economic development of the livestock market. 
• Panama is estimated to export $40 million worth of meat to the U.S. annually, according to projections shared in 2024 by the National Cattle Ranchers Association (ANAGAN). Panama's advancement toward exporting beef to the U.S. could aid in enhancing fiscal stability by generating critical foreign exchange revenue.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The U.S. economy could slow unless interest rates are lowered immediately, President Donald Trump highlighted, repeating his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who says rates should not be lowered until it is clearer that Trump's tariff plans won't lead to a persistent surge in inflation.
• The comments, and the administration's seemingly intensifying pressure on a Fed chair Trump has stated he would like to see gone, sent stock markets lower and bond yields higher as investors and analysts mulled the fallout should Trump ignite a fight over the Fed's monetary policy independence and try to remove Powell before the end of his term a little over a year from now.
• Trump's repeated threats to fire Powell come as he tries to goad the Fed into quickly cutting interest rates to mitigate a widely expected economic slowdown and possible harm to the labor market due to his tariff and other policies, while Fed policymakers urge caution on concerns inflation, which remains above their 2% target, could be pushed higher by the import taxes. The Fed next meets on May 6-7 and is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate steady in the current 4.25% to 4.50% range
• The growth outlook and overall sentiment have both been falling as Trump ratcheted up efforts to impose import taxes on goods from major U.S. trading partners and many core products, with top economists raising the estimated odds of a recession this year. While inflation is expected to decline in upcoming readings, there is broad agreement as well that the import tariffs Trump plans to impose will drive it back to perhaps 4% or higher through the rest of the year.
• Fed officials say that while that price shock may prove temporary, allowing them to cut rates eventually, they worry it could lead to more persistent inflation that would require them to keep credit conditions tighter.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan is expected to signal next week that risks from higher U.S. tariffs won't derail a cycle of rising wages and inflation seen as crucial to keep raising interest rates, said four sources familiar with its thinking.
• The assessment, to be included in its quarterly outlook report due on May 1, will underscore the BOJ's desire to keep alive market expectations of further interest rate hikes, even though the timing of its next move could be months away.
• "It's hard to predict the exact damage to the economy from (President Donald) Trump's tariffs at this stage," said one of the sources. On the other hand, it's clear intensifying job shortages will pressure Japanese companies to keep hiking pay. The language is subject to change as there is no consensus within the BOJ on details of the report, which will not be finalised until closer to the April 30-May 1 meeting.
• Such a hawkish message may help Japan fend off criticism from Trump that Tokyo is keeping the yen artificially weak to give its exports a competitive trade advantage, some analysts say. At the two-day policy meeting ending on May 1, the BOJ will cut its economic growth forecasts and warn of escalating risks from Trump's sweeping tariffs that are set to dent global demand, the sources said.
• The central bank may also push back the expected timing for sustainably meeting its 2% inflation target, which was seen around the latter half of fiscal 2025 in current projections made in January.
• With markets still volatile, the central bank is widely expected to keep short-term rates steady at 0.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Still, many BOJ policymakers are wary of concluding that further rate hikes are completely off the table, given a lack of hard data on the hit from tariffs to the economy and uncertainty over the outcome of bilateral trade negotiations.

(Source: Reuters)

• Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed the unemployment rate stood at 3.7% in January 2025. The 3.7% rate is slightly higher than the 3.5% in October 2024 – the lowest rate on record, but still well below the 5.4% in January 2024.
• The total number of unemployed individuals amounted to 54,500, up from 51,300 in October 2024 and the percentage of unemployed females relative to males is down from 60.0% to 58.0%. Regarding age distribution, the number of unemployed youth (persons aged 14-24) increased by 1,900 to 23,500, representing 43.1% of the total.
• The labour force, consisting of 1,473,900 persons as of January 2025, increased from 1,468,300 in October 2024.  Notably, the total participation rate increased marginally from 68.1% in October to 68.4%, and the percentage of females in the workforce is up from 46.3% in October to 46.7%.
• Notwithstanding the quarterly, increase from October, the number of unemployed individuals is 26,200 lower than 12 Months ago in January 2024. Similarly, the labour force is marginally down from 1,486,400 and the total participation rate is marginally lower than the 69.0% seen in January 2024.
• Despite the decline in participation rate over 12 months, employment levels rose across most categories. The employed labour force expanded to 1,419,500, an increase of 13,800 persons (+1.0%). Employment among males rose by 5,800 (to 763,000) and among females by 7,900 (to 656,400). This growth was concentrated in ‘Technicians and Associate Professionals’ and ‘Professionals’, while the largest industry gains occurred in ‘Education, Human Health and Social Work Activities’.
• Meanwhile, ‘Services and Sales’ remained the largest occupational group, accounting for 343,400 or 24.2% of the labour force. This was followed by ‘Skilled Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Workers’ (201,400) and ‘Elementary Occupations’ (176,200).

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

^[1] Since January 2024 changes to the LFS to incorporate recommendations from the 19th, 20th and 21st International Conferences of Labour Statisticians.

• The Mexican government has halted U.S. fuel imports sent into the country by road, as it cracks down on illegal deals. Trucks carrying gasoline and diesel to Mexico from the U.S. Gulf Coast refining hub are not being permitted to cross the Texas border as the Mexican government investigates import permits and steps up cargo inspections, one of the sources involved in such deliveries said.
• There was no timeline to resume the trucking trade, the sources said, adding that railway and waterborne deliveries of fuel to Mexico from the U.S. have not been impacted. Even though Mexico is a large crude oil producer, it imports much of its fuel requirements from the U.S. as Pemex struggles to efficiently refine the heavy sour Maya crude oil grade it pumps. Mexico is the top buyer of U.S. fuel. According to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data, U.S. oil and fuel exports to the country averaged around 35.66Mn barrels per day in January.
• The trading route has proven lucrative for fuel smugglers, pushing Mexico to establish a decree to combat illicit fuel trade in 2023. In recent months, Mexican authorities have seized a vessel and several fuel trucks for what they said were illegal cargos.
• Mexican Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch said on March 31 that federal authorities had seized a tanker in Tamaulipas that was carrying 10Mn liters of diesel along with 192 containers and 29 vehicles to transport motor fuels, as well as other vehicles. On March 28, he said federal authorities had seized about 8Mn liters of hydrocarbon products, containers, and vehicles used to transport motor fuels and pumps in Baja California.
• U.S. President Donald Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration and drug trafficking has also increased scrutiny at the U.S.-Mexico border. Nearly 110,000 acres of federal land along the border were transferred to the U.S. Army to help prevent illegal immigration, the U.S. Interior Department said on Tuesday.

(Source: Reuters)

• Saint Lucia’s tourism sector continues its upward trajectory, achieving a landmark EC$3.5Bn in revenue last year, despite operating with 500 fewer hotel rooms. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Tourism, Dr Ernest Hilaire, announced the milestone during a press briefing.
• Hillaire noted that the total value of visitor arrivals reached EC$3.50Bn and the country was able to achieve a record-breaking year despite fewer rooms.
• He also highlighted the growing role of alternative accommodation, such as short-term rentals and homestays, in boosting local earnings. Tourism Authority data revealed that over 30,000 visitors opted for Airbnb-style lodgings last year. 
• Moving forward, the ministry aims to further support community-based tourism by promoting small-scale providers and home accommodations. The recent Gimies Awards (St. Lucia Tourism Awards) also underscored the industry’s appreciation for its workforce, honouring the dedication of hospitality professionals.
• The record revenue reflects the sector’s robust performance, which he credited to Saint Lucian hospitality workers. As preparations begin for next year’s Gimies, Hilaire encouraged wider participation, stressing that tourism’s impact extends beyond economics – it’s about people.
• The minister also noted that the government has resolved to continue the thrust to ensure that we get more of the money to be spent in Saint Lucia and to go into the pockets of Saint Lucians

(Source: St. Lucia Times)

• U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, April 16, 2025, that the Fed would wait for more data on the economy's direction before making any changes to interest rates and characterised recent market volatility as a logical processing of the Trump administration's dramatic shifts in tariff policy.
• "For the time being, we are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell said in a speech to the Economic Club of Chicago.
• In a later question and answer session, he noted a potentially tough situation developing for the Fed in which prices are pushed higher by tariffs while growth and possibly the labour market weaken, leaving both inflation and employment further away from the Fed's desired levels. The Fed tries to keep inflation stable at 2% while sustaining maximum employment.
• "I do think we'll be moving away from those goals, probably for the balance of this year. Or at least not making any progress," due to the impact of tariffs that have proved larger, at least as announced, than even the most severe scenarios pencilled into initial Fed planning estimates, Powell said.
• He called Trump's tariff plans "fundamental changes" that don't provide businesses and economists with any clear parallels to study. Powell noted that the U.S. began the year around full employment, and inflation was expected to continue falling to the central bank's target, an achievement many doubted the central bank could accomplish.
• In his first public remarks on recent financial volatility, Powell said he felt that bond and stock markets were functioning well, with recent swings showing investors adapting to the new policy landscape. Asked if there is a "Fed put" where the central bank would step in if markets plummet, Powell said no, while explaining. "Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty, and that means volatility. But having said that, markets are functioning...They're orderly, and they're functioning just about as you would expect them to function."

(Source: Reuters)

• British inflation slowed to its weakest in three months in March, and other measures watched by the Bank of England (BoE) cooled too, but higher bills and employer costs will pressure prices soon against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war.
• Inflation slowed to an annual rate of 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February, below expectations of 2.7% in the BoE forecast and a Reuters poll of economists. A price drop for computer games and falling fuel prices helped bring down the headline rate, although the prices of clothes rose strongly after a surprise fall in February, the Office for National Statistics said.
• "This is very much the calm before the storm," former BoE interest rate-setter Michael Saunders said, pointing to April's increases in gas, electricity and water prices, alongside higher taxes on employers, which could push inflation to 3%.
• The BoE, which has an inflation target of 2%, said in February it expected inflation to leap to 3.6% in April as regulated tariffs for household utility bills go up.
• Since those forecasts were made, Trump's decision to impose sweeping trade tariffs has raised the prospect of a slowdown in the global economy. Martin Sartorius, principal economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said the higher US tariffs could put both upward and downward pressures on inflation in the UK, but that the BoE was likely to cut interest rates next month.

(Source: Reuters)

• Impacted by higher expenses, Knutsford Express Services Limited (KEX) reported a 36.8% decline in earnings to J$169.67Mn for the 9 months ending February 2025 (9M 2025).
• 9M 2025 revenues grew by 7.3%, moving from J$1.53Bn in 2024 to $1.64Bn in 2025, reflecting a slower but sustained growth in service demand.
• However, the company grappled with cost pressures, as administrative and general expenses rose sharply by 16.0% to $1.39Bn. With revenue growth outpacing higher expenses, KEX’s operating profit fell by 24.4% to $248.95Mn.
• The company’s weaker operating performance was compounded by higher net finance costs, which increased by 25.6% to $36.30Mn, reflecting lower finance income (-27.4%) and higher finance costs.
• As a result, profit before taxation dropped 29.3% over the nine months, from J$300.58Mn to J$212.65Mn.
• Amid the falloff in earnings, management pointed to continued macroeconomic softness, including muted passenger arrivals, as a key drag on revenue momentum. However, investments in operations continue, including the ongoing expansion of its coach fleet. The company is also looking to deepen its efforts to digitise its processes to improve operational efficiencies and enhance customer satisfaction.
• KEX’s stock price has depreciated by 15.1% year-to-date. The stock price closed Tuesday’s trading session at $12.02 and currently trades at a P/E of 28.62x, above the Junior Market Other Average of 16.30x.

(Sources: KEX & NCBCM Research)

• Express Catering Limited (ECL) delivered a 54.2% surge in net earnings for the 9 months ended February 2025 (9M 2025), rising from US$2.09Mn in 9M 2024 to US$3.22Mn. Improved cost management, which compensated for marginal revenue growth, drove the buoyancy in earnings.
• Total revenue grew by 1.1% to US$18.89Mn, on higher average spend per passenger, which rose from US$9.53 to US$10.49, and compensated for a decline in total passenger volumes from 1.96Mn to 1.80Mn.
• Notwithstanding the marginal revenue growth, gross profit improved by 8.6%, driven by lower cost of sales (-13.9%) to US$5.31Mn.
• Similarly, Administrative and Promotional expenses declined by US$0.67Mn or 10.7% to US$5.58Mn, which outweighed a US$0.61Mn (27.7%) increase in depreciation expenses to US$2.82Mn.
• The lower administrative and professional expense reflects tighter cost management, notably in salaries, wages, and lease obligations under IFRS 16, as well as supply chain efficiencies and improved menu pricing. With the improved cost containment, operating profit rose by 26.7% to US$5.10Mn.
• With improved earnings, ECL’s profit margins improved from 11.2% to 17.0%.
• ECL’s management remains optimistic for the rest of its 2025 financial year. The winter season (Dec–May) remains a peak period for passenger traffic and revenue generation. Moreover, with the summer season approaching, the company is actively reviewing cost categories to further drive future savings and margin expansion.
• ECL’s stock price has decreased by 4.1% year-to-date. The stock price closed Tuesday’s trading session at $2.89 and currently trades at a P/E of 11.4x, below the Junior Market Other Average of 16.3x.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)