• The United States’ (U.S.) Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, but said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the economic outlook as the U.S. central bank grapples with the impact of Trump administration tariff policies.
• The economy overall has "continued to expand at a solid pace," the Fed said in a policy statement, attributing a drop in first-quarter output to record imports as businesses and households rushed to front-run new import taxes.
• The labour market also remained "solid" and inflation was still "somewhat elevated," the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said, repeating the language used in its previous statement. But the latest statement highlighted developing risks that could leave the Fed with difficult choices in the coming months.
• "Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further," the FOMC said at the end of a two-day meeting during which officials agreed unanimously to keep the central bank's benchmark interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range. "The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen," the statement said.
• The direction of policy will depend on whether job or inflation risks develop, or, in the more difficult outcome, whether inflation and unemployment increase together and force the Fed to choose which risk is more important to try to offset with monetary policy. A weaker job market would typically strengthen the case for rate cuts; however, higher inflation would call for monetary policy to remain tight.
• The Fed's policy rate has been unchanged since December as officials struggle to estimate the impact of President Donald Trump's import tariffs, which have raised the prospect of higher inflation and slower economic growth this year. When policymakers last updated their projections in March, they anticipated reducing the benchmark rate by half a percentage point by the end of this year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain is in "active discussions" with top U.S. officials over the 100% tariff on all movies produced outside the U.S. announced by President Donald Trump, as it aims to protect one of its biggest creative industries.
• Importantly, Britain has a leading film and TV production industry, centred on studios located close to London. Production spending on films in Britain in 2024 totalled $5.91Bn, according to ProdPro, compared with $14.54Bn in the United States.
• "We are already in active discussions with the top of the U.S. administration on this subject. We are working hard to establish what might be proposed, if anything, and to make sure our world-beating creative industries are protected," Creative Industries Minister, Chris Bryant, told parliament on Wednesday, May 7, 2025.
• Bryant noted that Trump had not given any details about his proposal, adding that it was not clear how tariffs could be applied to the film industry, with productions often created and developed across different locations and countries.
• The entertainment industry was left flummoxed on Monday by Trump's announcement of tariffs, with executives questioning both the timing of the proposed levy and how it could be enforced.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Carib Cement Limited (CCC) has reported a 3.4% increase in its Q1 2025 net profits to $1.99Bn, as a 7.7% revenue increase compared to Q1 2024, was pegged back by higher expense growth.
• Revenue growth was met by a 10.4% rise in direct costs to $4.43Bn, reflecting higher fuel and electricity expenses and increased personnel costs. Despite this, gross profit improved 9.2% to J$3.38Bn.
• Operating expenses (+22.8%) also outpaced revenue growth. The largest driver was administrative expenses, which cover personnel, services and equipment depreciation and grew by 68.4% to $0.35Bn. The other contributors to operating expenses – Selling, distribution and impairment expenses – grew by 2.7% in aggregate to $0.48Bn.
• On the other hand, operating profit benefited from a reduction in “other expenses”, down by 14.5% to $0.27Bn due to a $40.5% increase in finance income to $0.09Bn and the absence of foreign exchange losses in Q1 2024. However, there was a 56.3% increase in management fees during Q1, which partially offset the overall decline in 'other expenses. Effective January 1, 2025, management fees, in the form of royalty and service fees, were raised from 2.0% to 3.0% of the company’s net sales¹.
• CCC’s $1.99Bn net profits supported operating cash flows totalling $2.3Bn, but was down $0.72Bn due to rising working capital. Notably, during Q1, the company directed $1.1Bn toward capital expenditure (CAPEX) as part of its ongoing plant upgrade.
• Carib Cement has now entered the critical construction phase of its major kiln upgrade project, with the installation of ducts, electrical systems, and other key infrastructure currently in progress.  The US$40Mn capacity expansion project, which is scheduled for completion later this year, will enhance its ability to meet local demand. The project will also position the company to benefit from significant government-led infrastructure initiatives, including roadworks and housing developments, with public expenditure expected to reach one trillion Jamaican dollars over the next five years.
• At market close on Tuesday, CCC’s price was J$82.14, down 2.80% since the start of the year. At its current price, the company trades at a P/E of 11.82x, which is above the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 15.54x.

______________________

¹ A maximum royalty fee of 4% of consolidated net sales has been established for the use of intellectual property owned by CEMEX and licensed to the Company, under terms approved at the December 7, 2021 Annual General Meeting.

 (Source: CCC & NCBCM Research)

• Despite a moderate increase in total gaming income (+3.87% YoY), Supreme Ventures Limited’s (SVL’s) earnings declined by 41.56% to $508.29Mn for Q1 2025. The decline was largely driven by a disproportionate spike in operating expenses.
• A 5.0% rise in income from fixed-odd wagering games and a 3.3% increase in revenue from non-fixed-odd wagering games, horse racing, and pin codes resulted in total gaming income rising to $13.83Bn from $13.31Bn.
• Direct costs rose by 3.8% to J$10.67Bn in Q1 2025 due to higher sales volume, but gross profit still improved by 6.4% to reach J$3.16Bn, reflecting efficiency in cost containment relative to revenue growth.
• That said, a sharp 33.4% increase in operating expenses, which jumped to J$2.21Bn in Q1 2025, was the main contributor to lower earnings. In addressing the jump in operating expenses, group chairman Garry Peart noted that depreciation following increased CAPEX –driven primarily by capital work in progress, motor vehicles, lottery equipment and leasehold equipment – and the absence of a write-back drove the increase. “Last year, the reported figure was about $1.6 billion, but that included a $300 million write-back. So, if we adjust for that, the true base was closer to $1.9 billion. On that basis, the year-over-year increase is actually more in the range of 10 to 12%...”, said Peart on SVL’s Q1 2025 investor briefing.
• Despite the rising costs, Management remains optimistic about the long-term growth of the business, pointing to several of its ventures, most notably its Fintech and Ghana expansions that are approaching break-even.
• At the market close on Tuesday, SVL’s stock price was J$19.93, down 19.41% since the start of the year. At this price, SVL trades at a P/E of 36.14x, which is above the Main Market average of 13.32x.

(Source: SVL & NCBCM Research)

• Mexico's annual inflation rate likely ticked up in April, but remained within the central bank's target, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday, supporting expectations that the central bank will continue cutting its benchmark interest rate.
• The median estimate from 16 analysts was for the year-on-year headline inflation rate for April to rise to 3.90% from 3.80% in March. Mexico's central bank has an official target rate of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point.
• Core inflation, considered a better indicator of price trends, likely also accelerated in April, to 3.92% from 3.64% in March. In April alone, consumer prices likely edged up 0.30% from the previous month while core prices are expected to have risen 0.47%, according to the poll.
• In March, the central bank (Banxico) cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 9%. The bank's board said it expects the inflationary environment to keep cutting borrowing costs.
• Banxico will announce its next monetary policy decision on May 15. Although economic growth is not part of Banxico's mandate, analysts believe a weak economic outlook stemming from global trade tensions could encourage policy makers to continue monetary easing.
• Mexico's economy avoided a technical recession by surprisingly growing by 0.2% between January and March, compared to a 0.6% contraction the previous quarter. The government sees the economy growing between 1.5% and 2.3% this year, according to a draft budget from the finance ministry. Private sector analysts polled by the central bank late last month lowered their growth forecast to just 0.20% from 0.50% previously. They also nudged up their year-end inflation estimate

• Guyana’s Minister of Agriculture, Zulfikar Mustapha, recently met with fishermen from Grove, Ogle, and Meadowbank to outline the government’s ongoing and planned infrastructural upgrades aimed at enhancing the fishing sector and supporting the livelihoods of fishermen along Guyana’s coast.
• In the meeting, held to foster open dialogue, Minister Mustapha reiterated the government’s strong commitment to improving facilities for the fishing community and ensuring the sector remains sustainable and productive.
• One of the major announcements was that dredging works at the Ogle channel are set to begin in the coming days. The initiative, delivered in keeping with a promise made by Vice President Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo, is expected to significantly improve navigability and safety for fishing vessels operating in the area.
• Minister Mustapha also revealed that at the Meadowbank Wharf, a contractor has already been mobilised to remove several derelict and abandoned boats that currently pose risks to both safety and sanitation. The clean-up effort is designed to facilitate smoother operations and a healthier working environment for all users of the facility.
• These upgrades form part of the government’s broader strategy to modernise Guyana’s fishing industry and enhance infrastructure that directly supports small-and medium-scale fishermen.

(Source: Guyana Chronicles)

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited the White House on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, for his first talks with Donald Trump and bluntly told the U.S. President that Canada would never be for sale.
• Carney won the April 28 election on a promise to stand up to Trump, who has imposed tariffs on some Canadian products and often muses about annexing the country. Although Carney has repeatedly called these actions a betrayal, the two leaders showed little animosity during an opening session at the Oval Office, where both men praised each other in front of reporters.
• Trump, whose tariff policy has rattled world markets, had said he and Carney would discuss "tough points," an allusion to the president's belief that the United States can do without Canadian products, a point that he made at length during the Oval Office conversation. "Regardless of anything, we're going to be friends with Canada. Canada is a very special place to me," Trump said, adding that the United States would always protect Canada.
• Importantly, Carney's Liberal Party promised voters it would create a new bilateral economic and security relationship with Washington and diversify an economy heavily dependent on exports to the U.S.
• Carney's comments about a new economic relationship had cast doubt on the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump signed during his first White House term but has distanced himself from. It is due to be reviewed in 2026. Carney steered clear of suggesting a major revamp, saying only that some things about the pact needed to be changed, while Trump described the agreement as fine and great for all countries.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain's services sector, accounting for much of the economy, shrank in April for the first time since October 2023 and at the fastest pace in more than two years, according to a survey that showed U.S. tariff turmoil is hammering exports and sentiment.
• The S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 49.0 last month from March's 52.5, the steepest pace of decline since January 2023, although it was marginally above a preliminary reading for April of 48.9.
• New orders and employment both fell more sharply than in March, while input cost pressures increased at the fastest rate since July 2023, something the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to note ahead of its interest rate meetings this week.
• Survey compiler S&P Global said the faster input inflation reflected a rise in payroll taxes introduced by British finance minister Rachel Reeves and a nearly 7% increase in the minimum wage. The monthly fall in hiring was the seventh in a row.
• The BoE is expected to reduce its benchmark Bank Rate to 4.25% from 4.5% on Thursday, May 8, and investors are wondering if the central bank will signal a quicker pace of cuts further ahead. BoE policymakers have said Trump’s trade policies will hit growth, although the impact on inflation is not yet clear.
• Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month cut its forecast for British economic growth in 2025 to 1.1% from a previous estimate of 1.6%, but said the country was likely to grow more strongly than its peers in Europe, including France and Germany.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Rentaly, a new Real Estate technology platform that functions as a property locator and Real Estate mortgage finance platform is set to launch in the third quarter of 2025. The platform developed by University of Technology, Jamaica (UTech) alumnus Denzil Williams and his team has partnered with Real Estate expert Johan O’Gilvie of Immobilien Limited to come to market. It aims to transform the way Jamaicans search for, and finance property, offering an integrated digital marketplace for property listings, rental proposals, and mortgage pre-qualifications.
• Johan O’Gilvie, who will be taking the reins as CEO, says the team is on track to bring the platform to the market in quarter three of this year. it will be Jamaica’s first Real Estate platform that integrates property location, pricing, mortgage financing and rent calculations. The platform will accommodate property sales and rentals where prospects can submit proposals for an agreement in a marketplace that assists with providing successful matches.
• Denzil Williams, who was presenting on the progress of the previous winners at this year’s Sagicor Innovation Challenge at the Jamaica Pegasus Hotel on April 22 stated, “…The site features banking portals, AI insights, 3-D mapping and fully automated underwriting.”
• “We have gone from Rentaly, the student short-term rental matcher, to Jamaica’s number one Real Estate platform. We pitched five years ago, matching students with housing, now we have pivoted. We thought of opening up to allow adults seeking places,” said Williams.
• The site also gets buyers partially qualified for mortgages. “We help with mortgage estimating, closing costs information and other forms of acquisition guidance. Buyers can get prequalified through Rentaly.” O’Gilvie expressed.
• Rentaly, at an appropriate time, will be open to investors, with 20% of shares currently unallocated.

(Source: JIS)

• The Panama Canal is set to close the west lane of its Pedro Miguel lock for five days later this month for maintenance, but reduced traffic because of the trade war between the U.S. and China should mean smooth sailing for shippers.
• In an update, analysts at shipping broker, NETCO, noted that the trade war between the U.S. and China has led to reduced traffic, shorter wait times and lower auction prices at the vital waterway, which likely means disruptions because of the maintenance will be minimal.
• Notably, the report noted that the number of unbooked regular-size vessels is slowing, with fewer than 50 arrivals projected over the next week. Previously, the availability of auction slots was limited to two per day for regular-sized vessels. However, with slowing demand for slots, auction prices are coming down, NETCO said, with the highest bid last week coming in at $65,000, down from the previous week’s highest bid of $101,000.
• This indicates that the situation at the canal is improving. Average waiting times are also falling, with southbound vessels waiting 0.4 days and northbound vessels waiting 1.2 days over the past week. The improved situation at the canal, however, is due to softer market conditions as well as the Panama Canal Authority’s (PCA’s) operational adjustments. “However, this stability is fragile and closely tied to subdued traffic levels – particularly in container, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and tanker segments,” NETCO said.
• “As global trade demand begins to rebound in the second half of 2025, increased pressure on the canal could reintroduce bottlenecks and cost volatility. Ongoing monitoring of transit slot availability, auction pricing, vessel queues, and rainfall patterns will be key to anticipating whether current efficiencies can be sustained or if renewed congestion is likely.”

(Source: Newsroom Panama)