• U.S. inflation increased as expected in February and likely rose further in March amid the war with Iran, a trend that is expected to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates for a while. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index ​climbed 0.4% after an unrevised 0.3 gain in January, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said ‌on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index rising 0.4%.
• In the 12 months through February, PCE inflation advanced 2.8% after increasing by the same margin in January.
• The BEA is still catching up on data releases following delays caused by last year's government ​shutdown. Inflation was already elevated before the war, largely because of President Donald Trump's import duties. The U.S.-Israel ​war with Iran boosted global oil prices and sent the national average gasoline retail price soaring ⁠above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years.
• Economists expect the inflation fallout from the ​conflict, which started at the end of February, would be more pronounced in March's data. Trump on Tuesday announced a ​two-week ceasefire on condition of Tehran reopening the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, which has also affected shipments of fertilisers and other goods. The disruptions are expected to raise food prices.
• Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.4% in February, rising by the same ​margin for a third straight month. In the 12 months through February, core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% following a ​3.1% increase in January.
• The slowdown in year-on-year core PCE inflation reflected last year's high readings dropping out of the calculation.

(Source: Reuters)

• A UK-based oil and gas exploration company says new offshore testing in Jamaican waters has identified hydrocarbons that could signal the presence of petroleum beneath the seabed.
• United Oil & Gas plc (UOG) announced on Wednesday that it has completed analysis of seabed samples collected from the Walton-Morant Licence, an area long considered to hold potential oil and gas reserves.  The company said the results mark an important step toward determining whether offshore drilling could eventually take place.
• During its recent Seabed Geochemical Exploration (SGE) survey, UOG has undertaken a geochemical analysis on the 42 piston cores acquired across the Walton-Morant Licence. The analysis has identified C4 and C5 hydrocarbons, including butanes and pentanes, in select piston cores within the headspace gas dataset. The Walton-Morant licence could contain approximately 7 billion barrels of prospective resources, though this represents potential rather than confirmed reserves.
• These higher order hydrocarbons are not typically associated with biogenic gas systems and are therefore consistent with a potential thermogenic contribution. This distinction is significant because thermogenic hydrocarbons are more commonly linked to oil and gas deposits, whereas biogenic gas usually forms closer to the surface and is less likely to indicate large-scale petroleum resources.
• There is an established body of evidence for an active petroleum system in Jamaica in general, and on the licence in particular, including repeat satellite slick anomalies, thermogenic hydrocarbon geochemistry from existing onshore and offshore wells, onshore and offshore oil seeps, and onshore surface outcrops.
• Furthermore, petroleum systems modelling suggests the presence of oil-mature source rocks. The 2026 SGE survey is the first on the licence to be optimally positioned using 3D seismic, multibeam echosounder (MBES) seabed mapping, and satellite-derived slick anomaly data.
• Taken together, the data are interpreted as consistent with an active petroleum system offshore Jamaica.

(Sources: United Oil and Gas PLC and Caribbean National Weekly)

• Guyana has earned over US$761Mn in the first three months of 2026, marking its highest quarterly earnings on record since production activities commenced in December 2019.
• According to the petroleum receipts, earnings were supported by 10 profit oil payments made between December 30, 2025, and March 31, 2026, along with one royalty payment relating to 2025 fourth quarter production amounting to US$110.89Mn, as oil prices remained above US$100 per barrel.
• Total profit oil payments during the quarter reached US$650.82Mn, while overall inflows into the Natural Resource Fund, including profit oil and royalty, amounted to US$761.72Mn, reflecting strong revenue inflows under elevated oil price conditions.
• Under the 2016 Petroleum Agreement, Guyana receives 2% royalty and 12.5% of profit oil, while 75% is deducted by ExxonMobil for cost recovery, after which the remaining balance of crude oil is shared equally (50/50) between the Government and the Contractor, in line with Article 11 provisions.
• Production remains robust, with four Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels (FPSOs) in the Stabroek Block producing a combined ~916,000 barrels per day (bpd), including Liza One (~130,000 bpd), Liza Unity (~265,000 bpd), Prosperity (~265,000 bpd), and One Guyana (~260,000 bpd), while ExxonMobil has expended US$40Bn to develop seven approved projects, with US$5Bn remaining in the cost bank.
• Higher oil prices are accelerating cost recovery, meaning ExxonMobil is repaying costs faster, which could result in a significant increase in Guyana’s share of revenues from crude sales, moving beyond the roughly 14.5% currently received into the Natural Resource Fund, and strengthening the country’s fiscal position over time.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• T&T is preparing for a major economic shift between 2026 and 2027. While the economy is expected to grow by only 0.7 per cent in 2026, the World Bank forecasts a strong comeback in 2027, with a real GDP growth rate of 3.2 per cent. This jump marks a significant recovery after a few years of slower movement, including an estimated 0.8 per cent in 2025 and a 2.5 per cent peak in 2024.
• While the 2027 outlook improves, T&T’s growth remains relatively conservative within the region, significantly trailing Guyana, which continues to lead the region with massive double-digit projections of 16.3 per cent and 23.5 per cent for those same years. Guyana’s oil-driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026. By comparison, Trinidad and Tobago, another hydrocarbon producer, benefits intermittently from gas-related activity; however, it has a more mature production profile, without the scale of expansion seen in Guyana.
• In the Caribbean, the oil-driven expansion of Guyana, and soon Suriname, and to a lesser degree Trinidad and Tobago, is widening divergence relative to economies that depend heavily on tourism. Compared to other tourism-dependent or service-based economies, T&T’s 3.2 per cent forecast for 2027 places it ahead of Barbados (3.0 per cent) and The Bahamas (1.9 per cent) for that year. However, in the near-term Trinidad is expected to underperform several regional peers, with St Vincent and the Grenadines (3.0%) and Grenada (3.1%) projected to grow faster than T&T’s 0.7% in 2026.
• Across Latin America and the Caribbean, growth remains constrained, with regional GDP projected at 2.1% in 2026 (down from 2.4% in 2025), leaving the region among the slowest-growing globally, with GDP per capita barely increasing and income gains remaining essentially flat.
• According to the World Bank, the lack of improvement comes with downward revisions in some country projections and reflects a familiar mix of demand: private consumption remains the main driver, while investment stays subdued amid elevated global and domestic uncertainty and still restrictive real (inflation-adjusted) financing conditions.
• The bank further noted that growth and quality job creation in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) remain subdued amid a challenging global environment. Inflation continues to decline, but monetary easing has proceeded more slowly than anticipated, non-energy commodity prices are softening, and persistent fiscal deficits continue to constrain needed investment. In addition, the rapid evolution of the global trade regime, together with heightened volatility in energy markets linked to the recent conflict in the Middle East, creates high levels of uncertainty around investment, inflation, and monetary policy, undermining medium-term growth prospects.

(Sources: World Bank and Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• Major global investment banks now expect China to keep official interest rates steady this year, scaling back earlier rate-cut calls, as the impact from the Middle East conflict appears ​limited, even as Beijing maintains a loose policy stance. The receding rate cut expectations ‌also comes as China holds up better than its regional peers amid the Iran war, while the broader economy has shown early signs of a rebound.
• "Against the backdrop of China's relative resilience amid Hormuz disruptions, better-than-expected activity ​data in January-February, and the producer price index (PPI) likely turning positive in March, we see ​no clear catalyst for a policy rate cut in 2026," Xinquan Chen, ⁠China economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.
• "We therefore remove our call for a 10-basis-point (bps) ​rate cut in the third quarter from our baseline," he said, while maintaining expectations for a ​50 bps reduction in cash that banks must set aside as reserves.
• While many other countries are grappling with higher inflation risks, China has faced deflationary pressure, giving it some leeway to counter inflation concerns stoked by rising ​oil prices. Additionally, China is largely insulated from the energy supply shock because it has ​higher oil and gas reserves.
• Late on Tuesday, the United States and Iran ​agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Meanwhile, China's central bank ​has said it will maintain an "appropriately loose" monetary stance this year, deploying ​tools including ⁠reserve requirement cuts and interest rates to keep liquidity ample.
• The banking system has shown signs of abundant liquidity since the start of the month, with the trade-weighted overnight repo hovering at near ⁠three-year lows ​and the seven-day repo falling below the main policy ​rate. "As the growth momentum is within the policy target, we no longer expect policy rate cuts in both 2026 and 2027," ​analysts at ANZ said in a note.

(Source: Reuters)

• A growing group of Federal Reserve policymakers felt last month that interest rate hikes might be ​needed to counter inflation that continued to exceed the central bank's 2% target, particularly given the inflationary impact of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, according ‌to the minutes of their March 17-18 meeting.
• "Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the (Federal Open Market) Committee's future interest rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upwards adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels," the minutes said, referring to support for language in ​the Fed's policy statement that would suggest the Fed might either cut or raise rates in the future.
• The Fed has been cutting rates since 2024, and ​its statement was designed to lean towards more reductions in the future, language that was ultimately maintained at the March meeting. Still, the March ⁠minutes reflect a larger group open to potential hikes than at the January meeting, when only "several" officials were willing to open the door to tighter monetary policy.
• Following the Feb. ​28 outbreak of war, "many participants pointed to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices," while others cited concerns about rising ​inflation expectations and risks that higher headline inflation would raise underlying inflation trends as well. Should the higher energy prices persist, "higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation," the minutes said.
• The Fed ⁠in March held its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 50%-3.75% rangeas it weighed how Middle East-driven oil spikes and AI adoption might fuel "persistent" inflation while simultaneously threatening economic growth and employment. The minutes were released on Wednesday, a day after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. News of the cease fire caused oil pricesto drop more than 15% to around $92 a barrel.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) recorded a significantly wider net loss of $5.52Bn for FY2025, compared to a loss of $724.7Mn in 2024, reflecting substantial valuation losses within its investment portfolio.
• The Group’s core subsidiary, Mayberry Jamaican Equities Limited (MJE), drove the outturn, recording negative revenue of $4.09Bn and a total comprehensive loss of $5.71Bn.
• The deterioration was largely driven by fair value losses on key holdings. Notably, MGL recorded a $3.29Bn decline in the fair value of investments in associates at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL), primarily linked to the fall off in the share price of Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL), whose carrying value fell to $10.59Bn from $13.12Bn. SVL’s share price came under pressure following the economic fallout from Hurricane Melissa (October 2025), which dampened consumer spending and gaming activity. Over 40.0% of SVL's Off-Track Betting locations sustained damages, and this, along with the temporary suspension of lottery draws, cost the company an estimated $4.0Bn in lost revenues. This was compounded by an additional $1.28Bn decline in the fair value of other financial instruments at FVTPL, which further eroded earnings.
• Financing costs continued to pressure profitability. Net interest income remained negative at $331.5Mn, as interest expense of $2.68Bn exceeded interest income of $2.34Bn, with corporate papers and notes contributing $1.89Bn to the interest burden. This highlights the ongoing drag from elevated funding costs.
• Core operating income streams provided some support but were insufficient to offset losses. Consulting fees and commissions grew 22.5% to $989.9Mn, reflecting solid brokerage and portfolio management activity. Additionally, dividend income of $479.8Mn and net unrealised gains on investment properties of $357.2Mn offered partial cushioning against valuation losses.
• Overall, operating cost pressures remained contained, though staff costs trended higher. Operating expenses were broadly stable at $2.75Bn, but staff costs increased to $1.07Bn (from $940.5Mn) despite a reduction in headcount to 107 (from 117), suggesting upward pressure on compensation. A tax credit of $260.3Mn, supported by deferred tax assets linked to approximately $5.38Bn in tax losses, helped moderate the final outturn, resulting in a total comprehensive loss of $6.33Bn for the year.
• With the falloff in its operating performance, MGL's stock price has decreased by 13.2% since the start of the year to close at $6.45 on Wednesday, April 8, 2026. The company has a P/B ratio of 0.64x, below the Main Market Financial Sector average of 1.10x.

(Sources: Mayberry Group Limited & NCBCM Research)

• Tourism Minister Hon. Edmund Bartlett announced during the official reopening of Eclipse at Half Moon in Rose Hall, St. James on Thursday, April 2, that Jamaica has achieved an 80% recovery in visitor arrivals, signaling a strong rebound following the devastation of Hurricane Melissa in October 2025.
• The reopening of Eclipse at Half Moon returned more than 200 hotel rooms to the national inventory, which Minister Bartlett credited as contributing to renewed global confidence in Jamaica's hospitality sector, with 72% of the country's total hotel room inventory having been restored by mid-December 2025.
• Despite the scale of destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica closed 2025 with total visitor arrivals of 3.7 million, comprising 2.6 million stopovers and 1.1 million cruise passengers, generating an estimated US$4.09Bn for the country. Revenues from the sector for 2025 was not far off the recording breaking year of 2024, where US$4.3Bn was generated. However, relative to 2024, total visitors lagged by 14.0% in 2025, with stopover arrivals and cruise passengers declining by 10.3% and 12.0%, respectively.
• Cruise passenger arrivals were the hardest hit, likely because ports in the northwestern part of the island bore the brunt of Hurricane Melissa’s destruction. However, the decline in spending by cruise passengers (-4.9%) was less severe than the falloff in arrivals.
• Cruise passenger arrivals was the hardest hit, likely because cruise ports in the northwestern part of the island bore the brunt of Hurricane Melissa's destruction. The earnings decline (-4.9%) is smaller than the arrival decline, suggesting the visitors who did come spent more per head consistently with the stopover-heavy mix, since stopover visitors spend significantly more than cruise passengers.
• Minister Bartlett underscored that the core significance of the sector's recovery is jobs, stating that employment means income and economic stability for thousands of Jamaicans, calling the reopening "a defining moment in Jamaica's journey of resilience and renewal."
• The Ministry of Tourism is now advancing a strategy focused on strengthening infrastructure, expanding all-inclusive offerings, enhancing destination assurance, and pivoting more deliberately toward luxury tourism. This represents an early step in that strategic shift and positioning Half Moon as a key hub for luxury and artistic expression along Jamaica's north coast.
• While the recovery trajectory is encouraging, external risks are elevated and could temper the pace of normalisation. Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, pose upside risks to global oil prices, which are translating into higher travel costs. Jet fuel prices have increased materially and are driving airfare increases that can suppress demand from the price-sensitive leisure travellers. At the same time, persistent inflationary pressures in key source markets may erode consumers’ disposable income, weighing on discretionary spending such as tourism. Against this backdrop, while Jamaica’s shift toward higher-value, luxury tourism may help support earnings per visitor, the sector’s near-term outlook remains sensitive to global macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

(Sources: JIS, Jamaica Tourist Board Online (JTB), Caribbean Journal and NCBCM Research)

• Barbados reaffirmed the importance of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and committed to “working constructively” with all members to strengthen the institution, emphasising that access to a predictable rules-based multilateral trading system is vital for its economic survival, food security, and developmental goals.
• Senior Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Senator, Christopher Sinckler, highlighted that as a small island developing state, Barbados values the WTO as a cornerstone of economic security and sustainable development. He stressed the need for WTO reforms supporting consensus decision-making, sustainable development, and special and differential treatment for vulnerable economies.
• Minister Sinckler also commended the WTO’s development-focused initiatives, including Aid for Trade, technical assistance, capacity building, the Small Economies Work Programme, electronic commerce initiatives, Trade in Services for Development, Development Week, and Trade and Environment Week, which support deeper integration of developing countries into the multilateral system.
• Sinckler highlighted the country’s leadership in WTO activities, including coordinating the Informal Working Group on MSMEs, co-coordinating the Dialogue on Plastics Pollution, chairing the Curaçao Accession Working Party, participating in trade and gender discussions, supporting the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement, and its recent membership in the Advisory Centre on WTO Law, reinforcing its commitment to a rules-based system with an effective dispute settlement mechanism.
• The foundations of the multilateral trading system are under strain, with geopolitical tensions, rising trade barriers, supply chain disruptions, and the climate crisis disproportionately affecting small, open economies. The Senator stressed the need for a WTO reform agenda that prioritises consensus decision-making, sustainable development, and treaty-bound special and differential treatment for the most vulnerable members.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• The Central Bank of The Bahamas (CoB) reported that the government’s deficit for Q2 FY2025/26 widened to $201.3Mn, up from $190.2Mn in Q2 2024/25.
• Total revenue fell $40.5Mn (-5.3%) to $718.0Mn, driven primarily by a $47.2Mn (-7.0%) drop in tax receipts, overshadowing the $29.3 million (3.1%) falloff in aggregate expenditure to $919.3 million.
• Taxes on international trade and transactions fell $33.9Mn (-15.1%) to $191.2Mn, reflecting declines in departure taxes of $17.3Mn, (-18.5%) and export and excise duties down 23.9% or $15.9Mn. The decline in departure taxes is likely attributable to outstanding cruise departure tax and sustainability levy payments, which totalled approximately $18.8Mn for H1 FY2025/26 and remained owed to the Government as at December 2025.
• Taxes on goods and services fell $10.8Mn (-2.6%) to $396.1Mn, including VAT (-0.6%) and stamp taxes (-2.4%). Specific taxes, mainly gaming, fell $6.3Mn (-35.4%), and excise taxes by $0.7Mn (-23.3%). Taxes on the use of goods and services dropped $1.3Mn (-3.6%) to $33.5Mn, largely due to lower business license fees. Property taxes declined $4.0Mn (-9.3%) to $39.3Mn. Non-tax revenue rose $5.9Mn (7.1%) to $88.9Mn, led by customs fees up $5.5Mn or 36.4% and higher fines, penalties, and forfeitures.
• That said, aggregate expenditure also fell by $29.3Mn (-3.1%) to $919.3Mn amidst weaker revenue uptake. Recurrent spending declined $22.4Mn (-2.6%) to $854.5Mn, including lower payments for goods and services (-$33.9Mn, -18.0%), miscellaneous payments (-$8.2Mn, -11.5%), and subsidies (-$3.6Mn, -3.2%). Grants fell sharply (-$3.5Mn, -89.2%). In contrast, debt interest rose $11.1Mn (5.0%) to $234.2Mn, personal emoluments grew $12.1Mn (5.5%) to $231.4Mn, and social benefits increased $3.5Mn (6.2%) to $60.8Mn.
• Capital spending decreased $6.9Mn (-9.7%) to $64.8Mn, largely due to a $14.3Mn (-21.9%) drop in non-financial asset acquisition, partially offset by a $7.3Mn rise in capital transfers to $13.9Mn.
• The widening deficit reflects persistent pressure on government revenues, primarily from trade- and consumption-related taxes, even as expenditure moderation partially offsets the impact. Non-tax revenues and targeted areas of growth in capital transfers provide some fiscal flexibility, but reliance on volatile trade-related taxes leaves the fiscal position sensitive to external shocks.

(Source: The Nassau Guardian)