• The CARICOM Development Fund (CDF) has launched the Caribbean’s first regional sustainability bond, targeting US$250Mn to finance growth and climate-resilience projects across the region. The bond was unveiled at the Caribbean Investment Forum in Barbados and is expected to reach the market no later than Q1 2027, with JMMB Group serving as arranger.
• The bond will be issued through Caribbean Sustainability Investments Limited, a special-purpose vehicle, and is intended to attract traditional and non-traditional sources of capital, including sovereigns, multilateral development banks, regional and international financial institutions, institutional investors and individual Caribbean investors.
• Financing is expected to be raised at concessional or below-market rates, targeting impact investors willing to accept more affordable returns in exchange for the social, environmental and economic benefits generated by the projects. The structure is intended to help governments finance resilience projects without worsening already-high debt burdens.
• Proceeds will support climate-resilience projects, including renewable energy and coastal protection; economic diversification through areas such as new technologies, sustainable agriculture and sustainable tourism; and community-focused projects. The CDF will also establish a joint project-preparation facility with Afreximbank to help develop investment-ready projects.
• The regional approach is intended to address the Caribbean’s lack of scale in accessing global capital by pooling eligible projects under a single financing framework rather than taking numerous smaller transactions to market. JMMB noted that investors can face similar evaluation, structuring and monitoring costs whether a transaction is US$5Mn or US$100Mn, making larger aggregated opportunities potentially more attractive.
• The Climate Bonds Initiative, an international organisation working to mobilise global capital for climate action and resilience, will help determine which projects qualify for financing, with projects required to contribute meaningfully to climate adaptation and resilience without creating significant environmental harm or additional vulnerabilities. The initiative follows the CDF’s Caribbean Community Resilience Fund, a blended-finance vehicle targeting US$100Mn–US$135Mn.
• The bond could help address two persistent barriers to Caribbean climate investment: limited fiscal space and the relatively small scale of individual projects. Pooling projects across countries could make regional opportunities more attractive to institutional and impact investors while potentially lowering financing costs.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers were divided last month over the rationale for raising interest rates, with "some participants" seeing a hike as needed to keep the impact of energy and other price shocks at bay, but a more hawkish core viewing it as necessary to guard against emerging demand-driven inflation.
• The competing arguments were outlined in the minutes of the United States (U.S.) central bank's September 15-16 meeting, at which the Fed voted unanimously to raise the policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point even as officials disagreed about whether the move was largely precautionary or represented a shift towards significantly tighter monetary policy ⁠meant to curb investment and spending.
• The split, and the varying interpretations of where the economy stands right now, set up a likely vigorous debate set for the October 27-28 policy meeting over whether inflation has taken on a broader, demand-driven dimension that warrants further Fed action now. The alternative would be to wait on further rate hikes to see if incoming data shows energy, tariff and other price shocks receding and inflation heading back to the central bank's 2% target.
• "Many participants emphasised that a higher path for the target range would be prudent on risk-management grounds, providing insurance against inflation remaining persistently above target due to stronger-than-expected demand or further adverse supply shocks," said the minutes of the session, which were released on Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
• Others, meanwhile, saw the "higher policy rate" approved in September as ⁠important to prevent recent energy and other shocks from having a broader influence on prices, while "a couple" framed their support for the hike as matching what they saw as a higher estimated neutral rate of interest. "Several participants stated that they viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive," the minutes stated. "Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be ⁠appropriate by year end."
• Investors, who had expected sequential rate hikes in the days following the September meeting, have since pared back their bets and now see the Fed keeping its policy rate in the 3.75%-4.00% range at its meeting later this month, just ahead of midterm congressional elections, ⁠but hiking again at the December 8-9 gathering.
• Following the release of weaker-than-expected jobs and inflation data, Fed officials' recent comments added weight to the sense that policymakers would now allow some time for new data to show whether underlying inflation was coming down from current levels ⁠that are more than a percentage point above the Fed's target or proving more persistent. But the arguments outlined at the September meeting have persisted, with some policymakers also saying they feel more and faster rate hikes are needed, potentially setting up a divided outcome and multiple dissents at the meeting later this month.

(Source: Reuters)

• India and the United States (U.S.) continue to make progress towards a narrow interim trade agreement, although a near-term breakthrough appears unlikely as differences remain over market access, agriculture, India’s purchases of US goods and its bilateral trade surplus. BMI expects both sides to eventually reach an agreement, but negotiations have reached a “plateau” as the remaining issues are among the most difficult to resolve.
• The main sticking points remain agricultural market access and India’s willingness to reduce trade barriers. India is likely to resist significant concessions unless Washington offers meaningful preferential access for Indian exports, while opening its dairy and genetically modified agricultural markets would carry particularly high domestic political costs.
• Meanwhile, India’s continued reliance on Russian oil has added another obstacle to negotiations. Russia accounted for approximately 50.8% of India’s crude oil import volumes in July 2026, while the new U.S. sanctions regime could expose purchasers of Russian energy to additional tariffs of up to 100%. This increases the potential cost of maintaining India’s current purchasing arrangements and could become a key point of leverage for Washington.
• Nevertheless, a narrow agreement remains possible if both governments defer their most contentious issues. India could reduce tariffs on selected U.S. agricultural and industrial products and commit to larger purchases, while Washington could provide preferential treatment for selected Indian exports without immediately resolving disputes surrounding dairy, genetically modified products and other regulatory barriers.
• The economic benefits of an agreement would likely stem more from reduced policy uncertainty than from a significant near-term increase in trade. A settlement would improve visibility for exporters and investors and reduce the risk of renewed tariff escalation, although the direct trade impact would likely remain modest given the current tariff rate and potentially narrow product coverage.
• Looking ahead, BMI expects negotiations to continue through the December 14–15 G20 Summit in Miami, although an agreement by then remains unlikely. Furthermore, the implementation of the new Russia sanctions regime in mid-October and the unresolved U.S. investigation into India’s manufacturing overcapacity will be important developments to monitor, as both could influence Washington’s negotiating position.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• CariCRIS reaffirmed Supreme Ventures Limited's (SVL) credit ratings of CariA/CariA- on the regional scale and jmAA-/jmA+ on the Jamaica national scale, signalling high creditworthiness locally and good creditworthiness across the Caribbean.
• The ratings carry a stable outlook, as CariCRIS expects SVL to maintain its strong business profile, remain profitable and meet its financial obligations on time over the next 12 to 15 months.
• This confidence is anchored in SVL's dominant position in Jamaica's betting, gaming and lottery sector, supported by strong brand loyalty, an extensive distribution network, a long-term lottery licence and a stable regulatory environment.
• Financially, the group continues to deliver consistent profits and resilient cash flows, while the successful refinancing of maturing debt, the restoration of covenant compliance and a focus on reducing net debt have strengthened its financial flexibility.
• Looking ahead, growth in sports betting, fintech services such as Evo Cash, and rising contributions from Guyana and Ghana are expected to diversify revenue, though the ratings remain constrained by SVL's heavy reliance on Jamaica, above-peer leverage and weaker-than-average liquidity.
• An improvement in Jamaica’s sovereign rating, Guyana contributing more than 15% of profits, or profit growth above 7% could trigger a rating upgrade. A downgrade could follow revenue decline of more than 10%, weaker debt coverage, or covenant breach.
• SVL’s stock price has decreased by 6.3% since the start of the year to close at $18.36 on October 5, 2026. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.5x, which is above the Main Market median of 12.05x.

(Source: CariCris & NCBCM Research)

• The House of Representatives has approved taking $455.9Mn from the Capital Development Fund (CDF) to support the budget of the Jamaica Bauxite Institute (JBI) for the 2026/27 financial year.
• Speaking in the House on Tuesday, September 22, Minister of Finance and the Public Service Fayval Williams explained that the Government set up the JBI in 1975 as a regulatory, planning and development agency.
• Williams noted that through the passage of the Bauxite Production Levy Act and the conclusion of the bauxite levy negotiations in 1975, an organisation to monitor, evaluate and conduct research on the bauxite and alumina industry, as well as to protect the interests of the Government in the industry was absent.
• The JBI is funded from levies on the bauxite industry, which are paid into the CDF. Mrs. Williams said that over the years the institute has also started offering laboratory services commercially, but the income from this is not enough to fully cover its operations. The $455.9Mn is expected to meet about 90% of the JBI's operating costs, with the remaining 10% coming from other income and reserves.
• The Minister said the CDF balance grew from $1.7Bn at March 31, 2021, to $8.9Bn at March 31, 2026, and reached $9.5Bn by August 31, 2026. She said the Fund therefore has enough resources to provide the approved support, and that it will hold $9.1Bn after the withdrawal.

(Source: JIS News)

• Consumer prices in The Bahamas rose 3.6% year-over-year in July 2026, despite a second consecutive monthly decline, according to the Bahamas National Statistical Institute’s (BNSI) latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
• Average prices fell 0.1% compared with June, matching the decline recorded between May and June. However, higher prices in the restaurants, hotels and transport categories continued to drive the annual increase.
• Restaurants and hotels recorded the largest year-over-year increase at 15.7%, followed by transport at 12.9%. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance prices rose 3.4%, while recreation prices declined 1.9%.
• Fuel prices remained substantially above July 2025 levels despite easing during the month. Diesel prices were up 33.4% annually, while petroleum prices increased 21.4%. Compared with June, diesel prices fell 6.8% and petroleum prices declined 3.2%.
• On a monthly basis, furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance recorded the largest decrease at 2.3%, while restaurants and hotels prices declined 1.4% and transport prices fell 1.0%. Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics recorded the largest monthly increase at 3.3%.
• The second consecutive monthly decline indicates some easing in near-term price pressures. However, the 3.6% annual increase and still-elevated fuel and transport costs indicate that higher energy prices remain an important source of inflationary pressure. This risk remains relevant given the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which has kept global oil and refined-product prices elevated.

(Source: The Nassau Guardian)

• The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago has launched a five-year strategic plan aimed at making the institution more agile, technology-driven and responsive to emerging risks as the financial and economic environment becomes more complex.
• Guided by the theme “Insight to Impact”, the plan focuses on identifying emerging risks and opportunities and translating them into outcomes that strengthen the bank, the financial system and the wider economy. Governor Larry Howai noted that monetary and financial stability will remain at the core of the bank’s mandate, but continued evolution is essential in a rapidly changing environment.
• The plan also introduces an evolved institutional vision for the central bank to become a premier, trusted and innovative institution committed to a resilient Trinidad and Tobago. It is built around three strategic themes, supported by eight strategic objectives and 23 projects aimed at strengthening economic management, safeguarding the financial system and enhancing the people, technology, data and processes that support the bank’s work.
• Successful implementation will depend not only on the initiatives outlined in the plan, but also on the bank’s ability to adapt as risks, technology and stakeholder expectations evolve. A stakeholder engagement session is expected in November to discuss the plan’s priorities, objectives and implementation.
• The new strategy signals a stronger emphasis on institutional agility, technology and data capabilities as the central bank seeks to strengthen its ability to identify and respond to emerging economic and financial-system risks, while maintaining monetary and financial stability as its core mandate.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• The amount of oil in storage that is accessible to the global market is running low, industry executives said at the Energy ⁠Intelligence Forum in London, making the market more fragile and putting upward pressure on prices.
• Governments and energy companies have drawn oil from stockpiles to alleviate pressure in a global oil market facing unprecedented supply disruptions this year due to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. "Less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today, with the vast majority not practically available, so the system is already straining," Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Arabia's state oil company Saudi Aramco, said. More than 1 billion barrels of oil have been released mainly from onshore commercial inventories since the start of this year's Middle East crisis, which was the last major tool in the box.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA), the West's oil watchdog and coordinator of its strategic oil reserves, is preparing to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel to help alleviate soaring diesel prices, but it is not clear if some of that total will include volumes from its record first 400 million barrel release in March that hadn't hit the market yet.
• "It took a lot of negotiations, but it is 100 million," Nasser said of the IEA decision. "Inventories are reaching a stress level. Only 10% or less is available; that's why they struggle with 100 million barrels." World oil demand is about 102 million barrels per day, according to the IEA.
• The loss of the oil market's buffers has made the market more fragile and has increased oil's price floor. Oil market turmoil will continue beyond next year, as it could take years to refill inventories on top of meeting global demand. Not all oil in storage is immediately usable because of operational factors like tank bottoms or oil sitting in pipelines, ⁠as well as political factors like government rules dictating minimum levels of emergency stocks.
• Considering this, there is huge demand to build additional inventories around the globe. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said his company is aiming to build out storage domestically and at its overseas refineries. Stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve are at their lowest ⁠since October 1982, according to data from the Department of Energy. Natural gas inventories are also depleted, making prices vulnerable to spikes. Furthermore, a bad winter could bring about a "bloodbath" in the gas market in the first quarter of 2027 if storage hits minimal levels.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United States (U.S.) trade deficit widened more than expected in August as imports jumped to a record high against the backdrop of robust domestic demand, keeping trade on track to again subtract from economic growth in the third quarter. The deterioration reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, was despite President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports, which he has argued are meant to shrink the trade gap.
• Economists have long argued that the US did not have the capacity to produce enough goods to meet its consumption needs. Some lowered their gross domestic product growth estimates for the July-September quarter. "The administration's trade policies have largely been a failure; trade tariffs have done nothing to reduce America's reliance on the import of foreign-produced goods," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The cost of American labour is simply too high to produce goods here cheap enough for consumers to even think about purchasing. Even if U.S. manufacturers were willing, the factories could not be built here fast enough to produce the goods that consumers depend on."
• The trade shortfall increased 13.7% to $105.6Bn, the largest since March 2025, and was at $79.8Bn when Trump was elected for a second term in November ⁠ Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the deficit would be $102.0Bn. August's deterioration was flagged by data last week that showed an import-driven surge in the goods trade deficit, and part of the increase reflected higher prices.
• Domestic demand increased at its fastest pace in more than 3-1/2 years in the second quarter, reflecting robust consumer spending and business spending on equipment, mostly related to AI. But businesses are relying on imports to meet demand. Imports increased 4.3% to an all-time high of $420.8Bn in August. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2Bn, partly due to businesses replenishing inventories, which have been drawn down for five straight quarters. They were boosted by a $9.1Bn increase in industrial supplies and materials, which include petroleum. Crude oil imports rose $3.3Bn while nonmonetary gold increased $3.1Bn.
• Capital goods imports soared $6.2Bn to a record high $146.4Bn, driven by semiconductors and other industrial machinery, reflecting the AI infrastructure buildout. Exports also rose 1.4% to $315.2Bn, while goods exports increased 2.2% to $205.7Bn, reflecting a $6.3Bn rise in industrial supplies and materials, mostly nonmonetary gold, crude oil and fuel oil.
• In addition to being a drag on GDP growth, the trade deficit also has inflation implications ⁠as it underscores excess demand. Economists said it supported their expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again this year. "The Fed had better pay good attention to all this excess demand stuff," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "Underlying the price shock from elevated energy prices, there is a demand-driven inflation challenge in the US economy. Energy prices are just an overlay onto that."

(Source: Reuters)

• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed Seprod Limited's (SEP’s) corporate credit ratings. Seprod holds a CariA rating on the regional scale, meaning its creditworthiness is strong compared with other Caribbean borrowers. On the Jamaica national scale, it maintained its jmAA- rating for local currency, meaning high creditworthiness compared with other Jamaican borrowers, and jmA+ for foreign currency, meaning good creditworthiness.
• CariCRIS also moved the outlook on these ratings from negative to stable. It implies there is a high chance that Seprod's financial flexibility will keep improving over the next 12 to 15 months. This rests on Seprod replacing short-term debt with a longer-term bond, holding more cash, building a stronger capital base and focusing on debt reduction. With these changes, Seprod's debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) is expected to stay above 1.00x, allowing it to keep generating enough cash to cover its debt payments. This resolves a key concern raised in the previous review. The company is also expected to remain profitable, meet its loan conditions, and pay its debts on time over the same period.
• Seprod's strong market position, built on a varied range of products and wide distribution across the Caribbean, supports the rating. The company performed well financially in 2025, staying profitable and improving its debt metrics. Its integrated business model, good management practices, strong corporate governance and capable leadership team also support the ratings.
• The rating or outlook could improve if the Government of Jamaica's credit rating is upgraded, if Seprod's net profit (PAT) margin rises above 5% for two years, or if its DSCR stays at 1 time or above for two years.
• However, the rating or outlook could be lowered if the Government of Jamaica's credit rating is downgraded within the next 12 to 15 months. Trade tensions or higher tariffs that raise supply and inventory costs enough to push the gross profit margin below 25% could also lead to a downgrade. If PAT margin stays below 3% for two years, or a DSCR below 1.00x for two years, this could also trigger a rating downgrade.
• Seprod's recent growth has been largely inorganic and debt-financed, notably through the acquisitions of A.S. Bryden and CPJ. That strategy has broadened the Group's regional footprint and product portfolio, but it has also put material pressure on its leverage profile and solvency metrics. Realising projected operational efficiencies and synergies from these acquisitions will be critical to supporting profitability and cash generation. Furthermore, its proposed additional public offer (APO), if approved by shareholders, would be a meaningful step toward rebalancing the capital structure. Fresh equity would strengthen the capital base, compress gearing and improve solvency ratios. It would also reinforce the deleveraging trajectory and improved financial flexibility that underpin CariCRIS's revision of the outlook to stable.
• On the equities front, SEP’s stock price has decreased by 6.3% since the start of the year to close at $78.64 on October 5, 2026. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.1x, which is below the Main Market Manufacturing Sector’s average of 13.4x

(Source: CariCris & NCBCM Research)