• The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% in June, as it has since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, judging that it would be premature to raise rates given the uncertainty around the strength of increased inflation pressures.
• The decision came shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a deal with Iran to end the conflict, a development Governor Andrew Bailey said he was “very encouraged” by, although he cautioned that it would not prevent British inflation from rising further. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates steady, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll.
• The BoE’s cautious approach contrasts with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, which both raised rates in the past week, as well as projections from the U.S. Federal Reserve after its first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh, which showed policymakers expected rates to rise later this year. Following the decision, sterling weakened slightly against the dollar, extending losses after the Fed decision and falling to its lowest level since April 7, while markets continued to not fully price in a BoE rate hike until December.
• While the tentative U.S.-Iran truce promised to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower oil prices, which would benefit Britain given its heavy reliance on imported natural gas, Governor Bailey said it was too soon to declare the inflation threat over. He noted that higher energy prices over the past four months had already created inflationary pressure in the pipeline, meaning inflation could still rise even if geopolitical tensions ease.
• The BoE expects inflation to rise above 3.25% in the final quarter of this year, up from 2.8% in May, although this is below the 3.6%-3.7% increase it had projected in April under two of its three main scenarios. The central bank was also marginally more upbeat on growth, estimating that the economy is expanding at an underlying rate of 0.2% per quarter, up from 0.1% in its previous forecasts, despite a small fall in output in April.
• For most policymakers, a weaker labour market, including higher unemployment and slower wage growth than a year ago, reduced the risk that a short-term pick-up in inflation would create longer-term difficulties in returning inflation to target. However, J.P. Morgan pushed back its expected timing for a BoE rate hike to November from July, warning that the central bank could again be wrongfooted by inflation if growth headwinds prove weaker than expected.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting a significant oil supply surplus in 2027, as Middle East production recovers from the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global supply is expected to outpace demand by more than 5 million barrels per day (bpd), marking a sharp shift from the current period of market tightness.
• According to the IEA’s June oil market report, global oil consumption is expected to reach 105.3 million bpd in 2027, representing a gain of 2 million bpd. However, output is projected to climb by roughly 8 million bpd to 110 million bpd, creating a sizeable surplus that could provide a “welcome respite” to the market.
• The IEA noted that the expected surplus could allow countries to replenish depleted inventories or build new strategic reserves, particularly as governments review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis. This follows a period in which inventories have been under severe pressure, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) government inventories falling to their lowest level since December 1990.
• The forecast comes after an interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran, scheduled to be signed on June 19, 2026 in Switzerland, paved the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian oil. However, the IEA warned that operational and political hurdles, including the time needed to clear mines and disputes over transit rights, could slow the pace at which Middle East output returns.
• Before the 2027 surplus materialises, the market is expected to face further strain. Global supply is set to fall by 3.9 million bpd in 2026 to 102.4 million bpd, while observed inventories have been draining at an average of 3.8 million bpd since fighting broke out on February 28. In May alone, inventories recorded a single-month draw of 143 million barrels.
• Oil prices have also eased sharply from crisis levels, with North Sea Dated crude prices falling by more than $40 per barrel from May through mid-June to around $82 per barrel, while Brent futures traded around $79 per barrel. The decline suggests markets are beginning to price in the expected recovery in Middle East supply, although near-term inventory risks remain elevated.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• After the delayed release of its December 2025 results showed annual losses of US$2.34Mn, Dolphin Cove Limited (DCOVE) remained under pressure in Q1 2026, with earnings sinking 83.4% year-over-year to US$142.80K as revenues continued to tread water.
• Year-over-year (YoY) Q1 2026 revenues sank 37.6% to US$2.55Mn, as weaker tourist arrivals, delayed hotel reopenings, and reduced room inventory across key resort areas post-Melissa took their toll. These headwinds led to lower attendance at Dolphin Cove and Yaaman Adventure Park, weighing on topline performance.
• Cost of sales drifted lower alongside revenues, falling 48.4% to US$280.26K amid softer attendance levels across the company's attractions. Consequently, gross profits declined by 36.0% to US$2.27Mn, even though gross margins increased modestly to 89.0% from 86.7%.
• Operating expenses followed the softer flow of visitor traffic, albeit declining at a slower 12.5% to US$2.14Mn, mainly due to reduced selling expenses. Even with a decrease in the allowance for impairment losses on receivables, operating profits were still down 69.6% to US$0.33Mn and operating margins halved from 26.7% to 13.1%.
• While Dolphin Cove’s Q1 2026 profitability remains compressed following a slow post-disaster demand, the operational outlook for the remainder of the financial year points to improvement. Top-line rebound is expected to be catalysed by accelerating stopover arrivals from expanding Latin American airlift, paired with robust visitor conversion rates within the cruise segment. Furthermore, localised marketing initiatives and targeted direct-to-consumer campaigns are projected to sustain a resilient base of domestic patronage, shoring up volume ahead of seasonal peaks. However, the company remains exposed to uncertainties regarding the Chapter 11 proceedings involving its parent group and the ultimate recovery of related-party balances¹.
• DCOVE’s stock price has declined by 16.7% since the start of the year to close at $10.00 on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. At this level, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9x, which is below the Junior Market Others Sector average of 1.7x.

_______________________

¹In FY2025, DCOVE recognised a US$2.82Mn non-cash impairment provision for related-party receivables, primarily from Dolphin Discovery affiliates, due to Chapter 11 bankruptcies by Controladora Dolphin and TDC Leisure Investments.

(Sources: JSE& NCBCM research)

• Tropical Battery Company Limited (TROPICAL) has appointed Omaro Hutchinson to its Senior Leadership Team as the Director of Artificial Intelligence, Analytics & Strategic Projects, effective June 2026.
• He is tasked with transforming Tropical Battery into a genuinely AI-native company across all five of its operating entities, spanning Jamaica, California, and the Dominican Republic, focusing on measurable operational outcomes rather than adopting technology for its own sake.
• His role encompasses seven distinct cross-border workstreams, including intelligent automation, data analytics, AI-assisted sales, digital infrastructure, and the formalised build-out of the Group's Power BI reporting architecture.
• The appointment is positioned as a capability-augmentation strategy rather than a cost-cutting measure, with management explicitly stating that no roles will be eliminated as a result of integrating these new AI frameworks.
• For Tropical, this means a concerted push to lower the cost of sales and administrative expenses through technology. If executed properly, the centralised AI framework acts as an operational multiplier, allowing the Group to scale its revenues internationally without a corresponding, linear spike in administrative and structural expenses.
• Tropical’s stock price has declined by 15.7% since the start of the year to close at $1.34 on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. At this level, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.61x, which is below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 25.0x.

(Sources: JSE)

• Grenada will spend over US$2Mn this year to insure itself against hurricanes and other natural disasters, as the country strengthens its financial defences in a region where a single storm can erase years of economic gains. The payment renews coverage under the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), a regional risk pool designed to provide rapid payouts when hurricanes, earthquakes or extreme rainfall events cross predefined thresholds. The approach reflects a wider Caribbean shift toward “risk layering”, combining insurance, contingency credit and reserve funds to reduce fiscal shock after disasters.
• Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Finance Mike Sylvester said the premium has risen from about US$1.8Mn last year, reflecting recent disaster activity in the Caribbean. “You will see that that premium has increased, and of course, that in itself is expected,” he said. “Years before we had (Hurricane) Beryl in Grenada in 2024, and we also had Melissa in Jamaica in 2025, so once there are events and claims and so on, the insurance usually goes up.” He said the cost is significant but unavoidable in a region repeatedly exposed to climate shocks.
• CCRIF is a parametric insurance mechanism that provides payouts when specific hazard conditions are met, allowing governments to access liquidity quickly after disasters. CCRIF currently provides coverage for tropical cyclones, earthquakes, excess rainfall, fisheries and selected utility risks.
• The value of that system is underscored in recent regional events. Following Hurricane Beryl, Grenada received a total of US$44.04Mn from CCRIF across 3 parametric insurance policies within 14 days. Jamaica also received about US$91.9Mn in CCRIF payouts following Hurricane Melissa in 2025, with funds released within 15 days. Together, the figures highlight both the speed and the limits of parametric insurance in small island economies, where liquidity can support recovery but cannot fully absorb the cost of major disasters.
• Forecasts point to a less active 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, Sylvester noted, but he cautioned that even a quieter outlook offers little comfort since “all you need is one major event to create serious problems for us.” Officials are also exploring whether disaster protection can extend further into the wider economy, particularly tourism and small businesses, which remain highly exposed to storm damage.

(Source: Now Grenada)

• The Venezuelan government has signed five contracts with Shell that will give the European supermajor rights to operate the giant Loran natural gas field. The agreements formalise Shell’s participation in Loran, a cross-border reservoir shared with Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) that is estimated to hold 7 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, while also covering oilfield expansion and efforts to reduce gas flaring.
• “For the first time, the Hydrocarbons Law, which was recently reformulated and amended, is allowing us these forms of negotiations and flexible business agreements where we will also boost production, and where we can make better use of resources for the people of Venezuela,” said Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodriguez.
• She emphasised the strategic step seeks to enhance the country’s energy capabilities through direct collaboration with key international players, thus ensuring concrete progress in the infrastructure needed for hydrocarbon extraction in the Loran field.
• In 2023, Venezuela and T&T reached a deal with Shell to produce and export gas from the Dragon field, which is estimated to contain 4.2 tcf of gas. Together, the Loran and Dragon projects are expected to help Venezuela launch offshore gas exports, initially through supplies to T&T for processing into LNG. In addition to Loran, Shell also agreed to a technical alliance to support procurement and output expansion at fields in Monagas North, and to a separate pact to buy equipment and parts to reduce gas flaring.
• The agreements move Shell to the top of Venezuelan state-owned energy company PDVSA’s (Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.’s) list of partners for key oil projects. That said, UK supermajor BP p.l.c is also set to participate in the Loran gas field and in the neighbouring Cocuina-Manakin offshore gas project, according to separate deals with the Venezuelan government.
• Recently, PDVSA and Spanish energy group Repsol also signed a crude and gas agreement to boost output in northwestern Venezuela, which could add about 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light crude to the current average output of around 40,000 bpd. The agreement also includes plans to triple output from Venezuelan oil operations within three years.

(Sources: Upstream Online, The Energy Year & Reuters)

• The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its June 16-17 meeting, marking its fourth consecutive hold. The decision was unanimous and widely expected as policymakers balanced a robust labour market against elevated inflation stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict and energy shock.
• The Fed’s updated economic projections highlight the Fed’s increased hawkishness since their March projections. Policymakers now expect higher inflation (3.6% vs. 2.7%), slightly weaker growth (2.2% compared to 2.4%), and a greater case for a rate hike, with 9 of 19 officials projecting one hike by the end of 2026. At the same time, the Fed maintained a relatively positive view of the labour market, forecasting unemployment at 4.3%, compared to 4.4% in the March projections.
• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made an immediate imprint on policy communications, introducing a significantly shorter statement that removed all forward guidance on future rate moves. Warsh said forward guidance was not “well suited” to the current environment, signalling a return to a more Greenspan-era approach to Fed communication.
• The Fed acknowledged that inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% target, partly due to supply shocks and higher energy prices. Officials noted that underlying inflation risks could remain tilted to the upside as firms continue passing on higher costs, even as the recent U.S.-Iran peace agreement eases some concerns over future energy prices.
• Warsh also launched a broad reform agenda, announcing reviews of the Fed’s communications framework, balance sheet, data sources, inflation framework, and productivity and jobs analysis. He also declined to submit his own economic projections, consistent with his long-standing criticism of the Fed’s forecasting process.
• While markets had expected rates to remain unchanged, investors focused on the Fed’s more hawkish outlook and reform agenda. Interest-rate futures now reflect increased expectations of a rate hike later this year, although Fitch BMI continues to expect a prolonged hold, arguing that inflationary pressures linked to the conflict should gradually fade if the U.S.-Iran agreement holds.

(Sources: Reuters & BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Japan’s crude oil import price hit a record high in yen terms in May 2026, driven by a surge in crude prices resulting from supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The customs-cleared import price rose to 114,076 yen (US$712) per kilolitre, surpassing the previous record of 101,389 yen set in April 2026.
• In dollar terms, the price stood at US$114.58 per barrel, the 17th highest on record. The increase reflects the sharp rise in global crude prices following disruptions to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
• Japan’s crude import price, known as the Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC), is based on customs-cleared CIF (cost, insurance and freight) prices and reflects global crude trends with roughly a one-month lag due to shipping times. Higher JCC prices raise the cost of importing both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), a key fuel for thermal power generation, and feed directly into higher electricity prices.
• Crude oil import volumes fell 57.3% year-over-year in May, following a 64% plunge in April, the steepest decline since 1980. Despite higher prices, the value of crude imports fell 28.5%, reflecting the sharp contraction in import volumes.
• By region, imports from the Middle East tumbled 61.9% to 3.967 million kilolitres, while imports from the United States rose 24% to 576,000 kilolitres, suggesting Japan has increasingly turned to alternative suppliers to offset shortages from its traditional sources.
• Before disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, Japan sourced about 95% of its crude imports from the Middle East, underscoring the country’s heavy dependence on the region for energy security. The sharp rise in Japan’s crude import prices highlights the economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on major energy-importing nations.
• While Japan has increased imports from the United States and other sources, the country’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude means higher energy costs are likely to continue feeding through to electricity prices and inflation, adding to the Bank of Japan’s concerns over persistent price pressures.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite slightly higher revenues for the quarter ended April 2026 (Q2 2026), Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited’s (INDIES’) profits slipped by 1.3% as rising costs had its side-effects.
• Q2 2026 revenues totalled $285.02Mn, up 5.6% relative to Q2 2025, suggesting that the company is recovering from the acute operational disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa in Q1. For context, revenues were down 14.0% for Q1 2026.
• However, cost of sales increased by 6.8% to $75.39Mn, compressing gross margin by 30 basis points to 73.6% for the quarter. Operating expenses also exhibited mild symptoms, rising 5.2% to $122.62Mn, largely driven by higher administrative costs. As a result, operating profits increased by 4.9% to $89.40 and margins inched down from 31.6% to 31.4%.
• Finance costs and exchange losses were more bitter pills to swallow. INDIES saw its finance costs increase by 33.2% to $19.66Mn. While the $1.0Bn refinancing improved the Company's debt maturity profile, allowing it to retire the $805Mn bond with this 5-year facility, the higher 9.5% interest rate, compared to the previous 7.5% and smaller principal resulted in elevated finance costs that continued to weigh on earnings. Meanwhile, its $0.37Mn in exchange losses was a reversal of $1.71Mn gains for Q2 2025.
• Despite near-term pressures, the company’s growth outlook is supported by the recent FDA approval of Regadenoson injection, a pharmacologic stress agent used in myocardial perfusion imaging. The drug has entered production and is poised to enter the market by the start of the next quarter.
• Overall, the integration of these drugs into the US market is expected to support strong business growth and serve as a major earnings driver. Additionally, the company is also actively researching to identify new generic drugs to introduce into the US market.
• Indies’ stock price has decreased by 6.7% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $2.65 and currently trades at a P/E of 26.5x, which is above the Junior Market Health Sector Average of 21.5x.

(Sources: JSE& NCBCM research)

• Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Governor Richard Byles reported to the Standing Finance Committee (SFC) of Parliament on June 10 that the central bank has achieved significant policy successes. This was achieved through the steady and professional execution of its statutory mandate of price and financial system stability over the past seven years. He noted that this record of stewardship by the Bank was established amid a climate of considerable externally originating turbulence, including a global pandemic, supply chain disruptions that drove inflation across the world, two major hurricanes, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
• In his final report to the SFC during his tenure as Governor, Mr Byles told members of the House of Representatives that the Bank’s policy achievements included inflation that was significantly controlled within target over the period, financial system soundness, and the start of a slate of institutional reforms. He noted that the BOJ has been an operationally independent central bank since 2021, a government policy decision that Mr Byles described as bold and consequential.
• On financial system stability, the Governor pointed to the fact that despite profound global disruptions, there were no bank failures in Jamaica, which places Jamaica in a strong macroprudential position. By comparison, the United States’ Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation reports 19 bank failures over the seven-year span to date.
• In relation to the foreign exchange market, the Jamaican dollar depreciated at a moderate average of 2.9% per year, which is broadly in line with the inflation differential with the United States, thus preserving the country’s external competitiveness. Gross international reserves also increased significantly from US$3.6Bn in 2019 to US$6.4Bn as of May 2026, the Governor reported.
• The BOJ played a leading role in policy reforms that helped secure Jamaica’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force’s Grey List in 2024, strengthening the country’s financial reputation. Governor Byles also highlighted that the Bank has contributed significantly to public finances, paying more than J$50Bn in dividends to the Ministry of Finance over the past seven years.
• Governor Byles further emphasised the BOJ’s modernisation agenda, including the introduction of more secure polymer banknotes and continued expansion of the JAM-DEX digital currency platform, with phone-to-phone transactions expected soon. Jamaica remains among a small group of countries to pioneer a central bank digital currency.
• In terms of fundamental challenges, Mr Byles pointed to the weakness of monetary transmission in Jamaica’s concentrated banking system and conceded that this remains a structural challenge constraining the pass-through of policy signals to credit and lending rates. This, he suggested, will not resolve itself quickly and remains a challenge for the future leadership of the central bank.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica)