• The U.S. government will probably risk defaulting on some of its $36.6 trillion in debt as soon as August, or possibly even by late May, unless Congress acts to raise the nation's debt ceiling, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast on Wednesday, March 26, 2025.
• The CBO's forecast of the so-called "X-date" when the Treasury Department would no longer be able to cover its obligations follows an estimate by the Bipartisan Policy Center on Monday that the U.S. could face the risk of default sometime between mid-July and early October.
• The CBO said the date would "probably" occur in August or September. But the agency warned that in the meantime, if borrowing needs exceed CBO projections, "the Treasury's resources could be exhausted in late May or sometime in June." Establishing a firm X-date is difficult given that the timing and amount of revenue collections and outlays over the intervening months are a moving target, the CBO explained.
• For example, the short-term flow of revenues into the Treasury will not become clearer until the government calculates receipts around the April 15 deadline for taxpayers to submit annual filings. CBO noted other important dates: a mid-June tax payment deadline and additional extraordinary measures that become available on June 30.
• A failure by Congress and President Donald Trump to agree upon and enact a debt limit increase would bring severe consequences. "If the debt limit is not raised or suspended before the extraordinary measures are exhausted, the government will be unable to pay all of its obligations. As a result, it would have to delay making payments for some activities, default on its debt obligations, or both," CBO warned.
• Republicans, who control the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, have not said when they intend to advance legislation to raise Congress's self-imposed debt limit. Lawmakers, however, have repeatedly taken negotiations over raising the government's borrowing limit to the last minute, a trend that has rattled financial markets and led the major credit agencies to lower their ratings on the federal government's creditworthiness.

(Source: Reuters)

• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the Issuer/Corporate Credit Ratings assigned to Pan Jamaica Group Limited (PanJam). PanJam maintains a rating of CariA (Foreign Currency (FC) and Local Currency (LC)) on the regional rating scale and jmAA (FC and LC) on the Jamaica national scale.
• The regional scale ratings indicate that PanJam has good creditworthiness compared to other obligors in Jamaica and the broader Caribbean region. The national scale ratings indicate that PanJam has high creditworthiness compared to other obligors within Jamaica.
• CariCRIS has assigned a stable outlook to these ratings, as it expects PanJam to remain profitable, albeit at a reduced rate over the next 12-15 months. This outlook is supported by economic growth expectations in PanJam's key markets, which should support asset growth and income. Additionally, strategic initiatives and technological advancements continue to support the Group’s operations.
• Although PanJam’s performance might be affected by reduced profit contributions from its associated companies, CariCRIS expects the Group to remain well-capitalised and comfortably service its debt obligations over the next 12-15 months.
• Key strengths of PanJam include diversified and competitive operating segments enhanced by ongoing strategic initiatives following recent amalgamations; improved financial performance supported by contributions from associated companies and adequate liquidity and strong debt-servicing capability backed by sufficient cash balances and a significant portfolio of marketable assets. Increased capital strength and a seasoned management team, complemented by a robust board of directors with strong risk management policies and frameworks, were among the drivers of the rating.
• Key risks for the company include continued reliance on dividend income and profit contributions from associated companies, though this reliance is expected to diminish in the medium-term following amalgamation efforts. Additionally, challenging economic conditions in its operating markets, though improving, remain potential downside risks to PanJam’s financial operations.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has downgraded the Jamaica national scale Issuer/Corporate Credit Ratings assigned to The Jamaica National Group Limited (JNGL) by one notch to jmA (Foreign Currency Rating) and jmA+ (Local Currency Rating). The rrating agency also reaffirmed JNGL’s regional scale ratings at CariBBB+ (Foreign Currency) and CariA- (Local Currency).
• The national scale ratings indicate good creditworthiness relative to other obligors within Jamaica, while the regional scale ratings reflect adequate creditworthiness (Foreign Currency) and good creditworthiness (Local Currency) compared to other Caribbean obligors.
• The one-notch downgrade reflects breaches in three of the six previously identified Rating Sensitivity Factors. The breaches include three consecutive years of: losses after tax resulting in negative returns on assets and equity, deteriorating Group cost-to-income ratios, and declining Group tangible net worth relative to total assets. There were also increased regulatory capital adequacy ratio requirements for JN Bank due to financial constraints at JN Financial Group Limited.
• Despite continued losses after tax in FY2025 (albeit reduced), CariCRIS has assigned a stable outlook as it expects JNGL will likely stabilise its liquidity and capital positions and return to profitability by March 2026. This outlook is supported by the divestment of its largest loss-making subsidiary in September 2024 and the anticipated partial or full divestment of two other significant loss-making subsidiaries by June 2025.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• The Bahamian government has taken a major step toward energy reform by signing an agreement for the country’s first Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal at Clifton Pier. The signing, announced by Prime Minister Philip Davis on March 20, is part of a broader effort to create a cleaner, more stable, and more affordable energy future for The Bahamas.
• The LNG terminal, which will be developed in partnership with FOCOL and Shell, is expected to reduce energy costs, improve the reliability of power generation, and significantly cut carbon emissions by shifting away from diesel and oil. Phase one of construction is set to begin before the end of the year.
• The LNG terminal is part of a multi-pronged energy strategy that includes: Equity Rate Reduction, which has already resulted in 58,000 households paying less than $125 on their electricity bills as of January, Utility-scale solar projects set to launch in Abaco, Andros, Eleuthera, Exuma, New Providence, Long Island, and San Salvador and Utility-scale solar projects set to launch in Abaco, Andros, Eleuthera, Exuma, New Providence, Long Island, and San Salvador.
• Beyond environmental benefits, the LNG initiative is expected to spur economic growth and create new jobs. With the development of a new energy sector, Davis anticipates opportunities for Bahamian workers and businesses to participate in the transition to a more sustainable energy future.
• Davis expressed gratitude to key stakeholders, including FOCOL, Shell, Minister of Energy JoBeth Coleby-Davis, and Attorney General Ryan Pinder, for making the agreement a reality. With this signing, the Bahamas is moving decisively toward energy reform, positioning itself for a more sustainable and cost-effective power future.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• President Donald Trump said Monday he would be placing a 25 % tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, as well as imposing new tariffs on the South American country itself.
• In a Truth Social post, Trump said Venezuela has been “very hostile” to the U.S., and countries purchasing oil from it will be forced to pay the tariff on all their trade to the U.S. starting April 2.
• Venezuela will face a “Secondary” tariff because it is the home to the gang Tren de Aragua, he said. The Trump administration is deporting immigrants who it claims are members of that gang who illegally crossed into the United States.
• Trump’s latest tariff threat suggests the administration will take bolder moves against China, Venezuela’s largest foreign customer. But Trump has labelled April 2 as “LIBERATION DAY” based on his still unclear plans to roll out import taxes to match the rates charged by other countries, as well as fully levy 25 % tariffs against Mexico and Canada, the two largest U.S. trading partners. The Republican president has also increased his 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum to 25 % for all imports.
• The U.S. stock market had been climbing on Monday as investors expect the tariffs to be more targeted than they had earlier feared. Still, the S&P 500 index is down so far this year out of concerns that a trade war could hinder economic growth and increase inflationary pressures.
• The tariffs would most likely add to the taxes facing China, which in 2023 bought 68% of the oil exported by Venezuela, according to a 2024 analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Spain, Russia, Singapore, and Vietnam are also among the countries receiving oil from Venezuela, the report shows. The United States in January imported 8.6Mn barrels of oil from Venezuela, according to the Census Bureau (AP).

(Source: Barbados Today)

• British retailers reported the sharpest drop in sales volumes in eight months in March, and they expect to see little improvement next month, an industry survey showed on Tuesday, March 25, showing signs of caution among consumers.
• The Confederation of British Industry's monthly gauge of retail sales fell in the 12 months to March to -41 from -23 in February, the lowest reading since July last year. The survey's gauge of expected sales for the month ahead was steady at -30.
• "Firms across the retail and wholesale sectors reported that global trade tensions and the autumn budget are weighing on consumer and business confidence, which is leading to reduced demand," said Martin Sartorius, principal economist at the CBI.
• "The combination of a faster fall in retail sales volumes and firm declines in wholesale and motor trades resulted in the total distribution sector seeing the sharpest annual sales drop in a year."
• Retailers and other businesses have complained about a 25 billion-pound (US$32Bn) rise in employers' social security contributions in the Labour government's first budget last October, as well as other cost increases due to come into force next month.

(Source: Reuters)

• Effective July 1, 2025, the National Housing Trust (NHT) will raise the loan limit for individual borrowers to $9Mn, up from $7.5Mn.
• For two co-applicants, the combined maximum loan limit will be increased from $15Mn to $17Mn, and for three co-applicants, it will move to $23Mn from $21Mn. Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, announced the increases during his contribution to the 2025/26 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on March 20.
• He said further, that for individual mortgagors purchasing a unit priced at $14Mn or less, the NHT will provide a loan of up to $12Mn, subject to availability.
• “We have given a policy directive to the NHT that all their resources should now be directed at producing houses that are around this price point. The NHT will not get involved in any new development of houses above this price point. Now, you won’t always get the houses at exactly $14Mn but you have to be within that target range,” he said.
• Also, for the construction of houses by individual contributors, the Prime Minister informed that the individual construction loan limit will be increased to $11Mn. For two co-applicants, it will be $17Mn and for three applicants, $23Mn.
• Additionally, he said that effective July 1, 2025, the NHT will reduce the wait time to access home improvement loans from 10 years to seven years. The loan limit for this benefit will be increased to $5Mn, up from $3.5Mn.

(Source: JIS)

• Over the next two years, the National Housing Trust (NHT) will commence construction of more than 19,575 solutions across all parishes, says Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness. He said the Trust will also continue to acquire lands for new developments.
• The Prime Minister was providing details on initiatives being undertaken by the NHT to improve housing access and affordability, during his contribution to the 2025/26 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on March 20. He noted that 12 projects, representing 11,322 housing solutions, are at the contract stage or have started construction.
• Dr Holness informed that planning and design are also under way for schemes consisting of 10,598 solutions, including 5,000 solutions in Longville IV, Clarendon.

(Source: JIS)

• Microfinance company, Access Financial Services Limited (AFS) has reported that following a cybersecurity incident detected on February 27, 2025, all systems are now fully operational, and normal operations have resumed. ​
• In a release shared on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), the company acknowledged that unauthorised access to its network, which contains personal data, may have occurred. “While we cannot confirm that data was stolen or exfiltrated, we can confirm that personal data was accessed by persons outside the organization”, the statement read.
• The cyber-attack on AFS, has renewed concerns about cybersecurity in Jamaica, which hasn’t spared government entities. Most notably, the Bureau of Standards Jamaica (BSJ) fell victim to a phishing attack in 2024, according to media reports, while PetroJam and the Financial Services Commission (FSC) were also hit in 2023.
• AFS’ cyberattack highlights the urgent need for stronger cybersecurity frameworks across Jamaica’s public and private sector companies, as businesses and government agencies remain vulnerable to the evolving threats.

(Source: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) forecasts regional economic growth of 2.5% in 2025, excluding Guyana, with overall growth reaching 4.6% when Guyana’s oil-driven expansion is included. Despite a steady outlook, the bank’s Director of Economics, Ian Durant, warned that geopolitical tensions, climate risks, and delays in critical infrastructure projects could hamper economic performance.
• Economic expansion in 2025 is expected to be driven by continued strength in tourism and construction. Service-exporting economies are forecast to grow by 2.2%, while commodity exporters are set to gain momentum.
• Regional GDP growth, excluding Guyana, slowed to 1.7% in 2024 from 2.5% in 2023, as post-pandemic recovery momentum eased. Fifteen of CDB’s borrowing member countries (BMCs) surpassed pre-pandemic output levels. Guyana led regional performance with a 43.5% expansion, while Haiti remained in crisis, suffering its sixth economic contraction due partly to political instability and inflationary pressures.
• Service-exporting economies experienced a slowdown, with growth at 1.6% compared with 2.8% in 2023. Tourism arrivals remained strong, exceeding pre-pandemic levels in several BMCs, while construction was another key economic driver, bolstered by infrastructure investments and private-sector developments.
• While inflation moderated and unemployment declined in most countries, Hurricane Beryl’s devastation across multiple BMCs underscored the region’s vulnerability to climate shocks. Fiscal positions strengthened, with most BMCs achieving primary surpluses, though public sector wages and infrastructure spending increased. Although debt levels increased in nominal terms, the regional debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 50.9% from 55.6% in 2023, and five BMCs – Anguilla, Barbados, Belize, Jamaica and Suriname – received sovereign credit rating upgrades.
• That being said, the outlook for 2025 is not without risks, including potential slowdowns in major trading partners, geopolitical uncertainty and climate-related disruptions. Delays in infrastructure execution could also dampen growth.
• The CDB identified three main priorities for action in 2025: strengthening climate resilience, with a focus on disaster preparedness and climate-proofing infrastructure; promoting economic diversification by modernising trade infrastructure and improving the institutional framework that supports and regulates businesses; and enhancing fiscal discipline through effective policies and institutional reforms to ensure sustainable growth and debt stability

(Source: Barbados Today)