• China's factory output and retail sales reported their weakest growth since last year in August, keeping pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus to fend off a sharp slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.
• The disappointing data split economists over whether policymakers would need more near-term fiscal support to hit their annual growth target of "around 5%," with manufacturers awaiting more clarity on a U.S. trade deal and domestic demand curbed by a wobbly job market and property crisis.
• Industrial output grew 5.2% year-on-year, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Monday, the lowest reading since August 2024 and weaker than a 5.7% rise in July. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, expanded 3.4% in August, the slowest pace since November 2024, and cooled from a 3.7% rise in the previous month. They missed a forecast gain of 3.9%.
• "The strong start to the year still keeps this year's growth targets within reach, but similar to where we were at this time last year, further stimulus support could be needed to ensure a strong finish to the year," said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China at ING.
• "While it is too early to gauge the impact of the consumer loan subsidies coming into effect in September, it is likely that more policy support is still needed, given the broader slowdown across the board. We continue to see a high possibility for another 10bp rate cut and 50bp RRR cut in the coming weeks."
• Authorities are leaning on manufacturers to find new markets to offset U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policy and weak consumer spending. However, a separate data this month showed factory owners have had some success diverting U.S.-bound shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, but the drag from the property crisis continues to offset efforts to steady the economy.
• Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ, said that while the data showed momentum in the world's second-largest economy was weakening, it was not yet bad enough to trigger a new round of stimulus. "Policies and measures to support service consumption are expected to offset the impact of aggregate demand this month," he said, adding an official crackdown on firms aggressively cutting prices made domestic demand appear worse than it was.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the three months ended July 31, 2025 (Q1 2025/2026), Pharmaceutical Distributor, R.A. Williams Distributors Limited (RAWILL) reported a net loss of J$1.91Mn a sharp deterioration from a net profit of J$24.06Mn in Q1 2024/2025, owing to higher operating expenses.
• Total revenues rose 7.6% YoY to J$417.0Mn, supported by stronger demand and the successful integration of new pharmaceutical product lines. The late-2024 integration of Iracet^[1] and six other new products has positioned R.A. Williams for stronger revenue generation heading into FY2025/26.
• However, this did not translate to the bottom line due to brisk growth in direct and indirect costs, which eroded margins. Direct costs increased by 16.0% to J$228.8Mn, outpacing the growth in revenues. Consequently, the gross profit margin dipped 3.9 percentage points to 45.1%. Operating profit fell sharply to J$15.2Mn from J$48.2Mn in Q1 2024, weighed down by administrative expenses (+17.6%) and selling & distribution costs (+29.4%), both linked to the company’s wider scale of operations.
• That said, finance costs improved during the quarter to J$17.09Mn (down 13.3%) relative to J$19.72Mn in Q1 2024/2025, reflecting lower debt service costs.
• Despite topline growth and lower finance costs, the bottom line was negatively impacted, registering a 107.9% decline.
• Management highlighted portfolio expansion with the onboarding of Ryvis Pharma and new anti-fungal products, alongside continued investments in distribution scale and community initiatives. These are expected to strengthen future revenue growth, though execution will carry near-term cost pressures.
• RAWILL’s stock price declined by 50.7% year-to-date, closing at $0.37 as at Tuesday, September 16, 2025. 

(Sources: RAWILL Ltd & NCBCM Research)

^[1] The first and only generic alternative to the brand Keppra available in Jamaica. Keppra is an epilepsy medicine.

• Despite a slight increase in consumer prices for August, the Point to Point (P2P) inflation rate was 1.2%. This was 2.1% percentage points lower than the 3.3% recorded for July 2024 to July 2025.
• The divisions making the largest contribution to the point-to-point inflation rate were ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (+5.2%), ‘Education’ (+9.8%), and ‘Information and Communication’ (-5.8%).
• Consumer prices rose 0.3% in August 2025, with the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing from 142.0 in July to 142.4 in August. The monthly increase was driven mainly by a 0.8% rise in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. Within this division, the index for ‘Food’ rose 0.9%, reflecting higher prices for fresh produce. The 0.9 per cent increase in the index for the ‘Recreation, Sport and Culture’ division, due to increased prices for textbooks and stationery.
• Calendar year-to-date (YTD) inflation rate as at August 2025 was -0.8%, well below the calendar YTD rate of 2.9% for August 2024.
• With inflation falling further below the BOJ’s target band, conditions remain favourable for the central bank to accelerate monetary easing to stimulate domestic demand. Of note, despite inflation being below its target range, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.75% its last meeting in August, citing global uncertainties. It also projected that near-term inflation readings are expected to remain below the lower bound due to cheaper electricity and stronger agricultural output, before gradually rising toward the midpoint. However, the sharp decline in P2P in August may heighten market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming September 29 meeting.

(Sources: STATIN, Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• Venezuelan Defence Minister, Vladimir Padrino López, has issued a stark warning to neighbouring Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, saying Caracas would retaliate if any attack against the country were launched from their territories.
• The defence minister’s words underscored mounting tensions in the Caribbean, where U.S. military operations have expanded under the banner of counternarcotics enforcement. Caracas insists the buildup is part of a broader campaign directed at undermining President Nicolás Maduro’s government. Padrino accused Washington of sharply intensifying aerial surveillance of Venezuela, citing a surge in spy flights last month.
• According to the minister, U.S. aircraft are not simply conducting routine patrols but are equipped to monitor Venezuelan territory in real time. The planes, he claimed, are “designed to collect and process information in real time, up to 200 miles, meaning their range reaches Venezuelan territory.” In his remarks, Padrino also accused the United States of harbouring aggressive intentions against Venezuela. “We know the deployment they have in the Caribbean with every intention of sowing war,” he said.
• The warning to Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago echoed earlier rhetoric from Venezuela’s leadership. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez last week branded both countries “vassals” of the United States. “You should take it easy, don’t dare, don’t even think about it. You are lending yourselves to the perverse plans of an aggression against the Venezuelan people,” Rodríguez said. Her comments reflected a deepening dispute between Caracas and its neighbours over their support for Washington’s regional operations.
• Trinidad and Tobago responded swiftly, with Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar rejecting any suggestion that her government was colluding with the United States against Venezuela. She dismissed the allegations as “alarmism,” stressing there were no agreements to invade Venezuela or send Trinidadian troops across the border. Guyana has not publicly commented on Padrino’s most recent statement. However, Georgetown has previously voiced support for U.S. activities in the Caribbean, framing them as part of collaborative counternarcotics efforts.
• The Venezuelan defence minister’s accusations come against the backdrop of the long-running territorial dispute over the Essequibo region, a resource-rich area claimed by both Venezuela and Guyana. Caracas has repeatedly warned that Georgetown’s alignment with Washington could heighten risks in the dispute. While Venezuela’s leaders accuse the United States and its allies of preparing for aggression, Washington has focused its rhetoric on crime and drug trafficking.

 (Source: Miami Herald)

• The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) is backing a new effort to help Barbadian small businesses grow, with a US$350,000 grant aimed at preparing them to attract investors and list on their stock exchange.
• The funding will support the Innovation Growth Market 200 Programme (IGM200), a national initiative with the intent to make equity financing attractive and accessible to all Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) by allowing them to list on the Innovation and Growth Market (IGM) of the Barbados Stock Exchange (BSE).
• Led by the Ministry of Energy and Business and the BSE, the programme will offer training, mentorship and support to 200 SMEs looking to expand. CDB President Daniel Best said the initiative would help reshape how small firms access equity capital, an area that has long been underused. “The government of Barbados, under its national Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSME) policy framework, has taken steps to strengthen the sector, including opening new channels for raising financing through the Innovation and Growth Market, formerly the Junior Stock Exchange,” he said.
• He added that the CDB’s grant will be used to build the capacity of 50 businesses, with at least 20 expected to become investor-ready and list on the IGM. “This effort is not just about paperwork,” Best said. “It’s about training, mentorship and education, so that business owners and investors alike understand the opportunities of equity financing and stock market participation.”

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Britain's economy recorded zero monthly growth in July after a sharp drop in factory output, matching expectations for a slower start to the second half of 2025 but still disappointing for the government ahead of November's budget.
• After a strong first half to the year, economists expect growth to slow over the second half as U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on the global economy and Britain faces headwinds from rising inflation and uncertainty over who will be hit by likely tax rises later this year.
• Finance minister Rachel Reeves highlighted that the economy "isn't broken, but it does feel stuck" as she set out measures to streamline part of the tax system. Friday's data showed that manufacturing output - which makes up 9% of the economy - dropped by a hefty 1.3% on the month in July, its biggest fall in a year, led by computers, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, the Office for National Statistics said. But the much larger services sector edged up 0.1% in the month, slightly ahead of expectations.
• GDP rose 0.4% month-on-month in June and on a three-month basis. However, the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS') preferred way of presenting the figures showed that growth slowed to 0.2% in the three months to July from 0.3% in the second quarter.
• "July's slowdown is probably the start of a more restrained period for the economy with higher inflation and rising job losses likely to have stifled activity in August, despite an expected uplift from the warm weather," said Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) accountancy body.
• Sterling weakened slightly after the data before recovering and financial markets continued to price in only around a 40% chance of another BoE rate cut this year, with inflationthis month expected to hit double the BoE's 2% target.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) should be mindful of the risk of inflation accelerating due to the yen's prolonged weakness, as Japan's interest rates remain ultra-low, former top currency diplomat Toyoo Gyoten highlighted.
• "It's a matter of fact that Japan's interest rates have been simply too low, and that's undeniably contributing to the yen's weakness," said Gyoten, who was involved in the 1985 Plaza Accord, which saw five major economies agree to a concerted devaluation of the dollar.
• The BoJ exited a massive, decade-long stimulus last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January on the view that Japan was on the cusp of sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target. While consumer inflation has exceeded the BOJ's target for well over three years, Governor Kazuo Ueda has vowed to go slow in hiking rates due to uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy.
• The yen fell to 38-year lows, dropping past 161 per dollar last year. It has partly recovered but remains weak for much of this year, last trading around 147 to the dollar. Gyoten, now an honorary advisor to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group's main banking division, said the yen's weakness would be corrected if Japan gradually moves toward further tightening, narrowing the interest rate gap with the United States.
• Gyoten, who became vice finance minister for international affairs in 1986, recalled the public outcry when the yen shot up in the aftermath of the Plaza Accord. The BoJ responded with massive monetary easing to shield the export-reliant economy from the currency shock. But the move fuelled asset bubbles that later burst, leaving deep scars on what is now the world's fourth-largest economy.
• "Rather than trying to stop the yen's appreciation, Japan should have accepted a stronger yen and used it as an opportunity to reduce its dependence on exports and shift to a new growth model," he said.
• Unlike in earlier times when a strong yen was seen as inherently negative, there is now a growing awareness that the perspective of ordinary consumers has to be taken into account, Gyoten said, referring to households getting crunched by higher costs of living due partly to the weak yen.

(Source: Reuters)

• Following the completion of its Additional Public Offering (APO), energy solutions company, Tropical Battery Limited, has now moved from the JSE Junior Market to the Main Market.
• CEO Alexander Melville stated that, although the APO did not reach the full amount originally targeted, the targeted raise was only one component of the balance sheet realignment strategy.
• He also noted that the company has prepared additional measures to strengthen the balance sheet and maintain progress with its growth plans. Key to those growth plans includes developing renewable energy solutions and expanding its presence in the Caribbean and the Americas.
• Since listing on the Junior Market of the JSE in 2020, Tropical has almost tripled its revenues, expanded into international markets, and diversified its business through acquisitions and strategic partnerships.
• However, off the back of earnings revisions, and despite second quarter improvements, Tropical had a net loss attributed to shareholders of $86.67Mn for the 6 Months ended March 2025 (6M 2025). The loss was $173.50Mn lower than the $86.63Mn profits for 6M 2024, as higher gross profits were outpaced by rising operating expenses, depreciation, amortisation and finance costs.
• Against the backdrop of the falloff in earnings, Tropical’s stock price is down 43.4% year-to-date to $1.42 on Thursday, September 11, 2025.

(Source: JSE, NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica's Net International Reserves (NIR) climbed US$6.15Bn at the end of August 2025, reflecting a 22.9% increase compared to August 2024.
• A 21.6% rise (US$1.10Bn) in total foreign assets, coupled with a 63.2% reduction (US$49.50Mn) in foreign liabilities, were the primary drivers of the improvements.
• The increase in foreign assets was largely driven by a 53.0% growth in Securities (US$854.60Mn) and a 929.9% rise in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), totalling US$197.61Mn, and an increase in Currency & Deposits of US$44.60Mn.
• Jamaica’s NIR remains relatively high, equating to 30.7 weeks of goods & services imports (25.3 weeks at the end of August 2024). At this level, the NIR is more than 2.7 times the international benchmark of 12 weeks of imports and should provide a solid buffer in the case of a major shock.

(Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)

• Since August 14, 2025, the United States has deployed air and naval forces to the southern Caribbean, reportedly to counter drug trafficking. The operation has since become one of the region’s most significant U.S. military engagements in recent decades. By August 28, U.S. forces had positioned seven warships, a nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine, and approximately 4,500 personnel, including 2,200 Marines, off the coast of Venezuela.
• Tensions escalated on September 1, when Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro characterised the U.S. presence as a threat to his government. The following day, U.S. forces conducted an airstrike against a Venezuelan-flagged vessel suspected of transporting narcotics, resulting in 11 fatalities.
• By September 5, the U.S. reinforced its posture with the deployment of 10 F-35 aircraft to Puerto Rico, extending aerial coverage across the Caribbean. On the same day, Venezuelan F-16 jets flew near a U.S. Navy destroyer, which U.S. officials described as provocative. Media reports on September 6 indicated that U.S. officials were considering additional strikes against cartel operations within Venezuela, suggesting that the September 2 incident may not remain isolated.
• Regional responses have been mixed: Trinidad & Tobago’s Prime Minister expressed support for the U.S. operations, while officials from Barbados and CARICOM emphasised the need for transparency and improved regional diplomatic coordination.
• Venezuela announced increased troop deployments along Caribbean corridors, raising the risk of further escalations
• These developments take place against the backdrop of a long-standing territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela over the Essequibo region, covering roughly 160,000 km², rich in oil and gas resources.

(Source: oilnow)