• Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will gather in Washington this week in what may be Jerome Powell's last meeting as head of the United States (U.S.) Central Bank, with energy prices still elevated and the Iran war at a standstill, is likely to prolong uncertainty about the economic and monetary policy outlook.
• A May 15 endpoint for Powell's eight years at the Fed's helm now appears more likely after a major obstacle to the U.S. Senate's confirmation of his appointed successor, Kevin Warsh, was removed on Friday, April 24, 2026. As a final act, Powell ‌will likely oversee on Wednesday (April 29th) another vote by the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, where it has been since December. Still, the meeting and Powell's press conference afterwards could settle key matters, including whether policymakers will nod to the potential for rate hikes later this year if inflation accelerates.
• When the war started on February 28, central bankers said the impact on inflation and economic growth would hinge on how quickly it ended and whether oil prices reversed to pre-war levels of around $70 a barrel. Eight weeks later, the bombing has paused, but economic warfare is still underway. The U.S. is blocking Iranian ships from leaving the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is preventing other vessels from passing through the vital waterway, and the disruption to global oil and other supply chains at a point where policymakers are taking inflation risks more seriously.
• Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, have risen about 50% since the start of the war. The resulting surge in gasoline and energy prices last month helped propel the U.S. Consumer Price Index to its biggest increase in nearly four years. While expected to hold interest rates steady, U.S. central bankers will have to decide if it's time to nod to the possibility of hiking borrowing costs if ‌inflation continues to ⁠ The prospect of rate cuts, at least, has dwindled, with bond markets positioned for the Fed's policy rate to remain where it is through at least the middle of 2027.
• That said, the question of whether Powell will remain on the Fed's Board of Governors even if Warsh is confirmed in time to run the next policy meeting in June also could be addressed. The U.S. Department of Justice on Friday dropped a controversial criminal probe of Powell over renovations of the Fed's headquarters in Washington, potentially satisfying the demands of a key Republican senator who threatened to delay Warsh's confirmation because of it. Powell also had made an end of the probe a necessary condition of leaving the Fed's board.
• Although Fed chiefs traditionally have resigned their board seats when their leadership terms have expired, Powell said last month he might stay and would "make that ⁠decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve," a broader test connected with President Donald Trump's efforts to encroach on the Fed's independence.

(Source: Reuters)

• China’s strategic reserves of oil and natural gas have insulated it somewhat, but its manufacturing-based economy is beginning to falter. China has sought to increase exports as demand has weakened at home. Rising oil and natural gas prices from the war in Iran are beginning to weigh on the Chinese economy, further slowing already anaemic consumer spending and hurting critical export sectors.
• Car sales fell in March and plunged further in April. Restaurants and hotels are also seeing fewer customers as households turn cautious. In southern China, thousands of toy factory workers protested last week after their employer collapsed under rising plastic costs and ongoing tariffs in the United States (U.S.).
• The emerging signs of strain underscore how even China, with vast strategic oil reserves and massive investments in renewable energy, is not immune to the forces pressuring economies worldwide. For many weeks, China had appeared to weather the fallout from the war, a view reinforced by fairly strong economic data through March. But with the war in its ninth week with no clear end, cracks are beginning to show.
• “The economy is decelerating,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French financial firm. China may struggle to meet this year’s growth target of 4.5% or more, she added. One of the clearest signs of emerging weakness is in car sales and production, often considered early indicators of trouble. Cars are the second-largest purchase for many Chinese households after apartments, and the industry drives demand for steel, glass and other materials.
• China’s retail car sales plunged 26% in the first 19 days of April from a year earlier, according to the China Passenger Car Association. While part of the drop reflects weaker electric-vehicle sales after tax incentives expired in December, gasoline-powered cars fared worse, falling by nearly 40%. Falling sales have left dealership lots crowded with unsold cars, triggering production cutbacks. Chinese car factories made 27% fewer cars in the first two weeks of April than a year earlier, a sharp pullback even as exports rise.
• At first glance, the economy still looks resilient. But a closer look suggests underlying weakness. This month, China said that its economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.3% during the first three months of this year. But most of the strength was in January and February. Retail sales decelerated in March, rising just 1.7% from a year ago. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing also noted that inventories of unsold goods continued to build. Michael Pettis, a Beijing economist, expressed that rising inventories could drag on future growth.

(Source: The New York Times)

• CB Group is investing approximately $1Bn in two major climate-smart agricultural facilities aimed at significantly expanding Jamaica’s egg and pork production capacity, marking one of the largest private agri-infrastructure pushes in recent years.
• The project includes a 40,000-bird tunnel-ventilated layer farm scheduled for completion by September 2026 and a 640-sow breeding facility expected to produce about 15,000 piglets annually, both designed with advanced automation and European-standard systems.
• The investment is positioned as a response to recent agricultural disruptions from Hurricane Melissa and reflects a broader shift toward hurricane-resilient, climate-adaptive food production infrastructure in the sector.
• Government officials have endorsed the initiative as aligned with national food security and agribusiness-led transformation goals, emphasising climate resilience, rural development, and export readiness under the country’s agricultural modernisation agenda.
• CB Group also plans to build out a network of contract farmers for both eggs and pork, scaling up production through tunnel-ventilated housing systems and integrating new supply chain infrastructure, including a central packing house, liquid egg processing, and expanded pork processing capacity.
• Over the next decade, the initiative aims to roughly double Jamaica’s table egg and pork industries, with the new facilities expected to trigger further private investment and expand total sector capacity significantly.

(Source: JIS)

• According to the Central Bank's Annual Economic Survey published yesterday, the latest official data from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) showed that real GDP for Trinidad & Tobago increased by 0.2% over the first nine months of 2025. This reflected a 2.2% expansion in the energy sector that offset a 0.6% decline in non-energy sector production. The Central Bank stated that "Energy sector buoyancy largely reflected a base effect, given maintenance activity by key upstream producers in the first half of 2024. Added impetus to growth accrued from the start-up of production at two new natural gas fields in the second quarter of 2025."
• Unemployment remained relatively low, averaging 4.5% over the first three quarters of 2025, signalling stabilised labour market conditions when compared with the unemployment rate of 4.8% during the same period of 2024. An uptick occurred in the number of persons with jobs alongside a more than proportionate decline in the number of persons without jobs. However, the labour force fell while the participation rate remained relatively unchanged at 54.7%. Job gains were notably observed in the Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels, and Manufacturing sectors.
• Price pressures were generally contained in 2025 as headline inflation remained low, increasing to 1% from 0.5% in 2024. This was underpinned by an increase in both food (3% in 2025 compared to 1.5% in 2024) and core inflation (0.5% in 2025 compared to 0.2% in 2024).
• Higher energy receipts outpaced the increase in government spending in the fiscal year ended September 2025, resulting in a significantly smaller overall deficit than budgeted. The preliminary outturn from the Ministry of Finance shows that the Central Government accounts recorded an overall deficit of $8.1Bn in FY2024/25. This compares with a fiscal deficit of $9.1Bn recorded in the previous fiscal year (FY2023/24) and the mid-year revised budget deficit of $9.7Bn for FY2024/25. Central Government revenue climbed to $49.1Bn driven mainly by stronger energy receipts, while expenditure increased moderately to $57.2Bn owing to higher outlays in transfers and subsidies and goods and services.
• Domestic and external borrowings, along with withdrawals from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) were used to finance the fiscal deficit. At the end of September 2025, adjusted General Government debt outstanding (which excludes debt issued for sterilisation purposes) reached $146.9Bn, $6.2Bn more than in September 2024.
• The Central Bank allowed treasury bills and notes to mature in the financial system and kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.5% during 2025 to support favourable funding conditions to aid domestic economic activity. Continued Government borrowing activity led to tighter market liquidity conditions, which the Bank addressed by allowing open market operation treasury securities to mature to keep ample liquidity in the banking system. After declining to $3.5Bn in October 2025, commercial banks' excess reserves at the Central Bank increased to $4.2Bn by end-December 2025. Trinidad and Tobago's external accounts recorded a deficit of US$908.2Mn in the first nine months of 2025.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that Mexico's consumer price index rose 0.11% in the first half of April 2026 compared with the previous fortnight, taking the annual Mexico inflation rate for April to 4.53%, according to INEGI data^[1] released on April 23. The reading is marginally below the 4.55% registered in the second half of March and notably below the 4.63% reading of the first half of March.
• The CPI sat at 3.96% year-on-year in the same period of 2025. The index remains above Banco de México's 3% target for the 141st consecutive fortnight, with the central bank's tolerance band running from 2% to 4%. Core inflation rose 0.18% fortnightly and 4.27% year-on-year, with goods at 4.10% and services at 4.44%.
• The softer headline reading supports the case for another 25 basis-point rate cut at Banxico's next meeting in June. A Citi survey published this week puts the policy-rate close for 2026 at 6.5%, which would imply one additional cut from the current level. The trajectory has been clear. Banxico has delivered sustained easing through the first four months of 2026 as the headline rate has drifted down from the peaks of 2024.
• For international investors tracking the Mexican peso and Banxico-priced instruments, the April  inflation reading keeps the easing cycle alive but does not accelerate it. The peso had been trading stable against the dollar into the release, with markets watching the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations.
• The April 23 INEGI release is the last inflation data point before Banxico's June decision window opens, and the core reading, softer than the headline and decelerating, is the number most closely tracked. The commercial gasoline trajectory will also be critical, with the fuel subsidy expected to continue through Q2 2026.

(Source: The Rio Times)

^[1] INEGI stands for Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (National Institute of Statistics and Geography).  It's Mexico's official statistics agency, equivalent to the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics rolled into one.

• The United Kingdom’s budget deficit narrowed to a six-year low in FY2025/26, with government borrowing at £132.0Bn (4.3% of GDP), slightly below official forecasts and down from £151.9Bn in the prior year, reflecting some improvement in public finances despite a challenging macro backdrop.
• However, the data also shows an early impact of the Iran war, as consumers scaled back fuel consumption in response to higher petrol and diesel prices, contributing to a decline in fuel duty revenues, which fell to £1.76Bn in March, the lowest level since mid-2023.
• While fuel duty represents only a fraction of total revenues, the decline provides an early signal of demand destruction, suggesting that higher energy costs are beginning to weigh on household spending and could feed through to weaker economic activity and broader tax receipts over time.
• At the same time, debt servicing costs rose sharply to £97.6Bn, up from £85.4Bn in the previous year, reflecting higher borrowing costs as markets price in elevated inflation and energy risks, further tightening fiscal conditions.
• The International Monetary Fund has already downgraded UK growth forecasts for 2026, citing the economy’s exposure to rising energy prices due to its reliance on natural gas, with economists warning that a more stagflationary environment could emerge.
• Fiscal risks are therefore increasing, with estimates suggesting that up to £16Bn of the government’s £24Bn fiscal headroom could be eroded under a severe scenario, highlighting the limited policy space available to support households while remaining within fiscal rules.
• Overall, while headline deficit metrics have improved, the economic fallout from the Iran war is beginning to surface, with early signs of weaker consumption, rising debt costs, and mounting risks to growth and fiscal sustainability.

(Source: Reuters)

• The European Union (EU) gave preliminary approval to a €90Bn loan package for Ukraine, alongside a new round of sanctions on Russia, bringing an end to months of political deadlock and signalling continued financial and strategic support for Kyiv.
• The breakthrough came after Ukraine resumed pumping Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline into Hungary and Slovakia, following repairs to infrastructure damaged earlier in the year, which had halted supplies and triggered the dispute.
• Hungary’s veto led by Viktor Orbán had been contingent on restoring oil flows, and its removal was further supported by Orbán’s recent election defeat, opening the door for a reset in relations with Brussels under incoming leadership.
• The €90Bn facility is viewed as critical support for Ukraine’s war effort and economic stability, with around two-thirds allocated to defence spending and the remainder for broader fiscal and economic support, described by Ukrainian officials as “a matter of life and death.”
• Oil flows through the pipeline are expected to gradually resume, with crude deliveries to Slovakia and Hungary restarting after months of disruption, although volumes remain uncertain and supply conditions are fragile.
• However, broader energy risks persist, as ongoing attacks on infrastructure and shifting Russian export strategies continue to disrupt regional supply chains, highlighting the vulnerability of Europe’s energy system despite diversification efforts.
• In a related development, Russia signalled it will halt some oil flows from Kazakhstan to Germany from May 1, citing technical reasons, which could add further pressure to supply routes even as alternative logistics via ports are being utilised.

(Source: BBC)

• Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) delivered a strong rebound in earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), with net profit increasing 35.9% year-over-year (YoY), supported by steady revenue growth and improved operating efficiency.
• Total gaming income increased to $14.46Bn, up 4.6%, supported by continued growth across both fixed-odd wagering and traditional segments, including lotto and pin codes. The performance reflects improving demand conditions and the normalisation of SVL’s retail operations following hurricane-related disruptions in late 2025.
• Direct cost also rose in line with revenues (+4.6% YoY); however, higher gaming income translated into a 4.5% increase in gross profit to $3.29Bn. As a result, gross margins remained broadly in line with Q1 2025 at 22.8%, indicating effective cost management despite ongoing operational pressures.
• Similarly, operating expenses increased modestly by 4.0% to $2.31Bn on the back of higher selling, general and administrative expenses. Notably, this represents a significant moderation compared to the 32.5% spike in Q1 2025[1]. This normalisation in expense growth, alongside continued investments in technology, retail network upgrades, and expansion initiatives, supported a 26.1% increase in operating profit, with margins improving to 20.9% (Q1 2025: 17.7%). However, finance costs jumped 16.5% to J$256.8Mn but was not enough to offset earnings growth.
• As a result, the improvement in operating performance flowed through to the bottom line, with net profit reaching $703.13Mn and net margins expanding to 4.8% (Q1 2025: 3.7%).
• Overall, the company’s Q1 2026 performance underscored the resilience of the Group’s business, notwithstanding the impact of operational disruptions arising from Hurricane Melissa, which resulted in an estimated $1.6Bn reduction in gross ticket sales over the quarter. The associated negative impact on net profit is estimated at $100Mn.
• Looking ahead, while the lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa may continue to weigh on some of SVL’s business segments, particularly retail-dependent channels, the company’s Q1 performance suggests that operations are stabilising. Within the lottery segment, terminal recovery has reached approximately 98%.
• However, the broader economic effects of the hurricane continue to curtail anticipated growth, reflecting lower sales per terminal. In Supreme Routes Limited, approximately 22% of machines remain offline, mainly located in severely affected parishes. In response, management has implemented targeted measures to mitigate the impact, including the deployment of additional terminals to operational parishes. Furthermore, SVL continues to benefit from solid cash flows and balance sheet flexibility to support ongoing investments while navigating external shocks.
• At the market close on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, SVL’s stock price was J$15.37, down 11.1% since the start of the year. At this price, SVL trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.93x, which is below the Main Market average of 24.49x.

___________________

¹ Last year, in addressing the jump in operating expenses, group chairman Garry Peart noted that depreciation following increased CAPEX –driven primarily by capital work in progress, motor vehicles, lottery equipment and leasehold equipment and the absence of a write-back drove the increase. “Last year, the reported figure was about $1.6 billion, but that included a $300 million write-back. So, if we adjust for that, the true base was closer to $1.9 billion. On that basis, the year-over-year increase is actually more in the range of 10 to 12%...”, said Peart on SVL’s Q1 2025 investor briefing.

(Sources: SVL & NCBCM Research)

• The October 2025 hit from Hurricane Melissa translated into a multi-billion-dollar repair for Sangster International Airport (SIA), with Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico^[2] (GAP), SIA’s parent company, flagging roughly US$20Mn (roughly J$3.2Bn) in repair costs tied to storm damage across terminal infrastructure, equipment, and operational areas.
• GAP in its 2025 Annual Report (20-F filing) framed the damage as operationally disruptive but not structurally threatening, noting that while parts of the airport required repairs and temporary closures, overall business continuity was preserved and operations resumed relatively quickly.
• A key financial cushion comes from extensive insurance coverage, with GAP indicating that the bulk of repair and replacement costs should be recovered in 2026 under existing property damage and business interruption policies. SIA has a US$353Mn insurance policy for property damage and business interruption, with a sub-limit of US$100Mn for catastrophic risks. There is also a US$750Mn annual policy covering personal injury and property damage to third parties. The scale of the insurance package reflects the significance of the airport, which handles more than 70% of tourist arrivals into Jamaica.
• That said, the more immediate hit showed up in traffic and demand trends, with passenger volumes contracting sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025) by 46.1% and remaining under pressure into early 2026 as tourism-linked capacity across Jamaica lagged recovery. The full year saw an 11.6% reduction in traffic to 4.47 million passengers passing through SIA. Nonetheless, the airport remained the third-busiest for GAP in the Caribbean region, excluding Cuba.
• MBJ Airports Limited still delivered positive earnings, but top-line and profitability metrics softened, reflecting weaker passenger throughput and reduced contributions from both airline activity and commercial concessions. Aeronautical revenue from both local airlines amounted to MXN$1.81BnMn (-3.3%), while Non-aeronautical services brought in MXN$848.88Mn (2.7%). Nevertheless, Profit before tax dipped 3%, with net profit down 2% to MXN$541.94Mn in 2025. MBJ paid US$44.2Mn as concession taxes to the Airport Authorities of Jamaica (AAJ).
• Importantly, GAP signalled no pullback in long-term investment plans, keeping over US$100Mn in capital projects on track through 2030, positioning the repair spend as a short-term setback within a broader expansion and modernisation cycle.

___________________

¹ The company’s wholly owned Spanish subsidiary, DCA, holds a 74.5% stake in MBJA, the concessionaire responsible for operating, maintaining, and developing Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, Jamaica for a term of 30 years beginning on April 12, 2003.

(Sources: GAP & Jamaica Observer)

• South America’s upcoming oil developments, including several in Guyana, are gaining increased importance due to recent developments in the Middle East, Norway-based Rystad Energy said in an April 21 analysis.
• “The Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices, it has exposed how dangerously concentrated global supply chains are around the Strait of Hormuz. South America is now positioned as the world’s most consequential source of incremental supply. The region offers scale, geologic quality and relative political stability at exactly the moment that the world is shopping for alternatives,” said Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas Research.
• Guyana’s next set of offshore projects awaiting approval are set to unlock a key share of new global oil supply, as markets respond to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Rystad Energy. Across the region, offshore developments in Guyana, Brazil and Suriname were identified as the most immediate sources of new supply.
• The firm said a sustained US$100-per-barrel oil price could unlock up to 2.1 million barrels per day (b/d) of additional crude supply across South America by the mid-2030s, with a large portion tied to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision.
• Rystad Energy said that if these unsanctioned projects are fast-tracked, they could deliver more than one million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) over the next decade, supported by about US$33.0Bn in greenfield investment through 2035.
• It was noted that the largest gains will come from earlier approvals of new projects, particularly those still awaiting sanction in Guyana’s development queue. The firm also identified limited global shipyard capacity for floating production, storage and offloading vessels as a key constraint that could slow the pace at which new projects are brought online.

(Source: OIL Now)