• U.S. President Donald Trump hit Russia's two biggest oil companies with sanctions in a sharp policy shift on Moscow's war in Ukraine, prompting global oil prices to rise by 5% on Thursday, October 23, 2025, and India to consider cutting Russian imports.
• The sanctions target oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which, between them, account for more than 5% of global oil output, and mark a dramatic U-turn by Trump, who said only last week that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin would soon hold a summit in Budapest to try to end the war in Ukraine.
• But Trump, in his latest about-face on the conflict, said on Wednesday that the planned summit was off because it would not achieve the outcome he wanted and complained that his many "good conversations" with Putin did not "go anywhere". "We cancelled the meeting with President Putin — it just didn't feel right to me," Trump told reporters at the White House. “It didn’t feel like we were going to get to the place we have to get. So I cancelled it, but we’ll do it in the future.”
• Russia called the new U.S. sanctions unproductive and signalled that its conditions for ending its war in Ukraine - terms which Kyiv and many European countries regard as tantamount to surrender - remain unchanged. The conflict raged on as European Union leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met in Brussels on Thursday to discuss funding for Ukraine, with momentum building to use frozen Russian assets to provide a 140 billion euro ($163 billion) loan to Kyiv.
• Moscow said it would deliver a "painful response" if the assets were seized. Russian drones attacked the Ukrainian capital for a second night, wounding nine people, officials said, while Russian air defence forces were reported to have shot down 139 Ukrainian drones.
• Unveiling the oil sanctions, Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, made clear Washington was targeting Russia's ability to fund what has become Europe's biggest land war since World War Two and was ready to take further action.
• "Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine," Bessent said in a statement. "We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions."
• Russian oil and gas revenue, currently down by 21% year-on-year, accounts for around one quarter of its budget and is the most important source of cash for Moscow's war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year. However, Moscow's main revenue source comes from taxing output, not exports, which is likely to soften the immediate impact of the sanctions on state finances. Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, shrugged off the likely impact, saying Moscow had developed what she called a "strong immunity" to such restrictions.

(Source: Reuters)

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods, on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, rejected calls from the banking industry to further relax rules on bank leverage, despite growing pressure from the government to reduce regulatory burdens to boost the UK's economic growth.
• The British government is seeking to soften some finance industry regulations to boost the country's sluggish growth and compete more effectively with the U.S., where supervisors are taking steps to ease banks' capital rules.
• Woods, speaking before UK ministers and industry leaders at an annual regulatory gathering in London's financial centre, said some measures being suggested could allow a sharp increase in bank leverage and weaken safeguards designed to prevent excessive risk-taking. "Taking higher-rated government bonds out of the leverage framework carries real risk," Woods said, adding that it would risk forgetting lessons from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, when its large holding of long-term government bonds made it vulnerable as they lost value when interest rates rose.
• The UK's Prudential Regulation Authority, which oversees banks and which Woods heads as CEO, has proposed raising the threshold at which the leverage ratio applies. Woods said core protections for the banking system would not be sacrificed in the name of competitiveness.
• The leverage ratio, introduced after the 2008 financial crisis, sets a minimum level of capital banks must hold relative to their total exposures, regardless of asset risk. It is designed to limit borrowing and ensure banks can absorb losses.
• Banking industry group UK Finance has argued that gilts (UK government bonds) should be excluded. It noted that lenders hold fewer domestic government bonds than European and U.S. peers, partly because the leverage ratio treats gilts as full exposures despite their low-risk profile.
• Woods said removing sovereign bonds from the framework would "largely eliminate sovereign risk from the bank capital regime" and warned that, unless offset by other capital requirements, it could expose banks to interest rate shocks if large bond holdings were sold off in stressed conditions. The Bank of England has committed to a review of capital requirements in December.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite Caribbean Cream Limited (Kremi) adding more scoops to its revenue in the second quarter ended August 31, 2025, rising costs caused a 77.2% year-over-year (YoY) net profit drip to $4.21Mn.
• Q2 Revenues increased by 12.9% to $825.56Mn, driven by increased demand from third-party contractors, which was supported by consistent stock levels to meet the demand.
• However, contract labour, waste disposal costs, and extended lease obligations ballooned Cost of Sales by 25.0% $565.27Mn. As a result, gross profits declined by 6.6% to $260.28Mn, and gross margins dipped by 6.6 percentage points to 31.5%
• The gross profit decline was somewhat offset by higher incomes, rising from $0.91Mn to $2.71Mn and lower operating expenses, which chilled by 2.3% to $226.58Mn, but finance costs countered, increasing by 34.2% to $30.79Mn, reflecting higher interest and lease interest expenses. Notably, its lease liabilities more than tripled to $259.96Mn.
• Ultimately, Keremi’s lower Q2 2025 earnings, coupled with its $13.65Mn loss for Q1 2025, translated to a $9.45Mn loss for 6M 2025. This represents a meltdown from the $33.89Mn profits in 9M 2024.
• While a strong holiday season could mean additional revenue increases, Kremi’s overall performance will depend on its ability to manage costs effectively.
• Kremi's stock price has fallen 25.6% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Friday’s trading session at $1.62 and currently trades at a P/B of 0.9x, which is below the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector Average of 1.4x.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Last Week, the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) had a mix of regulatory and strategic headlines, featuring an update on Edufocal’s delayed financials, key governance changes at two companies and dividend considerations.
• EduFocal Limited (LEARN) remains under regulatory scrutiny, after advising of a further delay in filing its Audited Financial Statements for 2024, which were originally due in March. The company has formally requested an extension to submit the completed financials by October 30, 2025. Trading activity of its ordinary shares remains suspended.
• Edufocal’s experience mirrors that of Kintyre Holdings Limited (KNTYR), which also faced challenges submitting timely financials. The experiences of both companies underscore the challenges that smaller companies often face in meeting the regulatory and governance requirements of being listed. Meanwhile, Jamaica Broilers Group Limited (JBG) 2025 Audited and Q1 2026 financial statements remain outstanding due to its ongoing review of its US operations. The company now anticipates that these submissions will be made on or before October 31, 2025.
• Additionally, two companies announced new directors: Knutsford Express Services Limited (KEX) appointed Mr. Larren Peart as an Independent Director. At the same time, Caribbean Assurance Brokers Limited (CABROKERS) welcomed Ms. Odene James to its board, reflecting a push toward enhanced governance and expertise.
• Lastly, Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) and A.S. Brydens & Sons Holdings (ASBH) had dividend updates. MGL announced that its Board of Directors will meet on October 23, 2025, to formally consider the payment of a dividend to Ordinary Shareholders, while ASBH declared preference dividends of US$0.0150 for preference shareholders on record as at October 31, 2025. ASBH’s preference dividends will be paid on November 14, 2015.

(Source: JSE)

• Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders issued a statement over the weekend, urging a peaceful resolution to the crisis in the Southern Caribbean. But as they united on the issue, one of its founding members made it clear it has a much different view of the situation. Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) expressed that it had adopted a much different attitude to the others in the 15-member – a point leaders ensured was recorded in their weekend statement on US military threats to Venezuela.
• “Heads of government CARICOM met and discussed various issues on the regional agenda, including the increased security build-up in the Caribbean and the potential impacts on member states. Save in respect of Trinidad and Tobago, which reserved its position, heads reaffirmed the principle of maintaining the Caribbean region as a zone of peace and the importance of dialogue and engagement towards the peaceful resolution of disputes and conflict. CARICOM remains willing to assist towards that objective,” the terse statement noted.
• The T&T administration has repeatedly stood behind the Trump administration in its ambitions on Venezuela, with Prime Minister Kamla Persad Bissessar calling on US soldiers to “kill them all violently,” referring to alleged drug traffickers trying to move large shipments of cocaine north to her nation and also to the US. She says such activities over the years have led to a spike in violent crime with murders (averaging 600 annually), gangland violence and increases in felony crimes, including drive-by shootings.
• While this was happening, citizens in Trinidad were spooked by a weekend advisory from the U.S mission in Port of Spain asking the population to increase alertness “to be aware of their surroundings and to report any suspicious activity to local authorities.” Local authorities have since increased security presence around the mission, hinting that there might have been threats to the facility even as police work to confirm the identities of two Trinidadians killed in one of the boat strikes last week.
• Neighbouring Guyana is the other member state which has lined up behind the U.S., at a time when there have been border disputes between it and Venezuela.

(Source: Caribbean Life)

• The Barbados-based Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) yesterday said it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the OPEC Fund for International Development, establishing a strategic framework for collaboration aimed at unlocking new financing opportunities and driving sustainable growth across the Caribbean.
• It said the agreement sets the stage for parallel financing and cofinancing of projects in critical sectors such as climate resilience, renewable energy, resilient infrastructure, food security, trade finance, and youth empowerment.
• It also promotes knowledge sharing, technical assistance, and capacity building, ensuring that Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs) benefit from innovative solutions and expanded access to resources. CDB president Daniel Best underscored the transformative power of collaboration.
• He noted that strategic partnerships between multilateral development banks are fundamental to achieving meaningful progress and driving transformational impact goals. This MOU is a significant step forward, showing that cooperation among development institutions is not just beneficial but vital to delivering real and lasting improvements in people's lives,' Best added.
• The MOU outlines joint activities, including project preparation, technical assistance, and regional dialogues to advance inclusive and green development. Areas of focus range from climate-smart agriculture and water security to digital connectivity and private sector growth, all aligned with CDB's mission to foster resilience and reduce poverty.
• The region's premier financial institution said that the collaboration would also support youth empowerment initiatives, technical and vocational training, and innovative financing mechanisms such as debt-for-sustainability swaps and blue economy facilities, reinforcing the Caribbean's position as a leader in climate resilience and sustainable development.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) next week and again in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists who remain deeply divided on where rates will be by the end of next year.
• A month ago, economists had expected just one more cut this year. But the new forecast follows a recent shift in expectations by Fed policymakers toward additional reductions. Caught between the dual risks of already-elevated inflation climbing higher due to tariffs and a further weakening of the labour market, the Fed appears to have prioritised the latter, prompting it to cut rates by 25 basis points last month for the first time since December 2024.
• All but two economists, 115 of 117, predicted the Fed would lower the interest rate again by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29. Two expected a 25 bps cut in October and a 50 bps cut in December. That majority falls to 71% for another cut in December. The poll was conducted on October 15-21.
• Financial market traders are more convinced and have fully priced in two more reductions this year to interest rate futures contracts. Many Federal Open Market Committee members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have suggested they will keep focusing on the job market. However, a government shutdown that so far has lasted three weeks has delayed key official data on employment as well as inflation, blurring the economic outlook.
• Recent private-sector data indicate both layoffs and hiring are modest, suggesting no major change in the job market. Poll medians predict the unemployment rate will average around the current 4.3% each year through 2027, largely unchanged from last month. Inflation, which the Fed targets at 2% on the personal consumption expenditures measure, was expected to average above 2% each year through 2027, according to the latest poll. Delayed official data due on October 24 are expected to show consumer inflation rose to 3.1% last month from 2.9% in August.
• That said, economists were split seven ways on where rates would be by the end of next year, ranging between 2.25%-2.50% and 3.75%-4.00%. The increased uncertainty is partly a result of speculation on who will be the next Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May.

(Source: Reuters)

• British finance minister Rachel Reeves has noted that Brexit, along with spending cuts by previous governments, had weighed more heavily on the United Kingdom’s (U.K’s) economy than originally thought as she readies a budget likely to include tax increases but also measures to boost growth.
• In comments reported by the Guardian newspaper, Reeves expressed that she was aiming to defy an expected downgrade in the economic growth forecasts from Britain's independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
• "We also know – and the OBR, I think, is going to be pretty frank about this – that things like austerity, the cuts to capital spending and Brexit have had a bigger impact on our economy than even was projected back then," she was quoted as saying by the newspaper during a conference in Birmingham. "That's why we are unashamedly rebuilding our relations with the European Union to reduce some of those costs that were, in my view, needlessly added to businesses since 2016 and since we formally left a few years ago."
• The OBR has estimated that Brexit will reduce Britain's long-term level of productivity by 4% compared with remaining in the European Union. The Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey also noted that Brexit was likely to continue to weigh on British economic growth over the coming years. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its October World Economic Outlook Projections, the United Kingdom is forecasted to grow by 1.3% in 2025 and 2026. This reflects a 0.1% increase in its 2025 outlook relative to the IMF’s July update, but a 0.1% decrease in its 2026 outlook.
• Data published earlier showed Britain's public borrowing in the first half of the financial year was the highest on record except during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, keeping up the pressure on Reeves ahead of the November 26 budget.

(Sources: Reuters & IMF)

• Despite an increase in topline growth, Knutsford Express Services Limited (KEX) reported a marginal decline (0.5%) in earnings to J$66.38Mn for the first quarter ending August 31, 2025 (Q1 FY 2025/2026), owing to higher operating expenses.
• Revenues grew by 9.1% in Q1 2025/2026, moving from J$549.71Mn to J$599.71Mn. Growth was driven by strong demand for KEX’s core business of islandwide passenger services between 16 locations, courier services over 19 locations, along with revenues from its Drax Hall Business Centre and Café.
• However, the company grappled with cost pressures, as administrative and general expenses rose by 11.2% to $501.33Mn. These higher operating expenses reflected an increase in KEX’s workforce to meet increasing customer demand across its expanding product and service lines of business, along with the addition of five new coaches.
• With higher expenses outpacing revenue growth (+9.1%), KEX’s operating profit fell by 0.5% to $98.38Mn. That said, profit before taxation rose slightly by 2.3% in the first quarter, from J$82.39Mn to J$84.26Mn, as the growth in finance income (+109.4%) outpaced higher finance costs (+0.6%). Still, net earnings were tempered by the 14.1% increase in tax expenses. Consequently, net profit margins moved from 12.1% to 11.1%.
• Despite the falloff in earnings, management pointed out that its investment in the Knutsford Express Business Centre in Drax Hall, St. Ann, has already exceeded expectations, as the rapid expansion of the area known as “Greater Ocho Rios” has established a commercial hub of activity for the area.
• While KEX expects continued growth from this location, the company is also pursuing other opportunities for synergistic benefits to its core transportation business, courier and logistics for other locations across the island. Notwithstanding, KEX is likely to face increased competition from the JUTC given the company’s expansion of routes from Mandeville to Kingston and from Montego Bay to Kingston.
• At the close of market on Thursday, October 16, 2025, KEX’s stock price has depreciated by 8.2% year-to-date to $13.00. It currently trades at a P/E of 27.62x, above the Junior Market Other Average of 17.30x.

(Sources: KEX Financial Release and NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica is projecting to welcome 4.3 million visitors for 2025, which is expected to generate US$4.6Bn in revenues. Providing an update on the sector during this week's sitting of the House of Representatives, Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, said as the world rediscovers travel, Jamaica stands ready, not just to welcome visitors but to lead the region into a new era of sustainable growth.
• “We are projecting 4.3 million visitor arrivals for 2025, a 2.7% increase over 2024 and earnings of US$4.6Bn, representing 7.1% growth year-on-year,” he said. He indicated that for the upcoming Winter 2025/26 season, stopover arrivals are expected to increase by 6.9%, cruise arrivals by 24.3% and gross earnings by eight per cent, reaching US$1.7Bn.
• Mr Bartlett said the sector’s performance puts Jamaica on track to achieve five million visitors and US$5Bn in earnings within five years, as well as increase its projected targets. “With this trajectory, Jamaica is firmly on course to achieve our 5x5x5 Mission - five million visitors and US$5 billion in earnings within the five-year period - which started in 2020, notwithstanding COVID and Hurricane Beryl. The new Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for tourism will be “5x8x10” Strategy: that is to achieve eight million visitors, earning US$10Bn by 2030,” he noted.
• He said this vision reflects confidence, not just in numbers but in people, creativity, hospitality, and resilience that define Brand Jamaica. “Our marketing focus is expanding beyond traditional markets to embrace new frontiers in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia, supported by enhanced airlift, digital innovation, and strategic partnerships that ensure Jamaica remains top of mind for global travellers,” the Minister said.
• While Jamaica’s tourist arrivals have been recovering from the COVID-induced downturn, it has yet to reach its 2018 peak. Arrivals stood at 97% of 2018 levels in 2023 and 96% in 2024. Furthermore, Jamaica’s tourist arrivals are down 4.9% to 2.2Mn for the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), which industry stakeholders are attributing to recent shifts in immigration policy.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)