• The Bank of England needs to be very cautious about future rate cuts as British inflation looks set to remain the highest in the Group of Seven advanced economies this year and next, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist said on Tuesday.
• The advice from the IMF's Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas comes after the Fund forecast Britain's economy would grow 1.3% in 2025 and 2026 - a 0.1 percentage point upward revision for 2025 and a 0.1 percentage point downward revision for 2026 compared with the last forecasts in July.
• While this leaves Britain on track to be the second-fastest-growing economy in the G7 this year after the United States and third-fastest in 2026, consumer price inflation is forecast to average 3.4% this year and 2.5% next year, the IMF said, the highest in the G7 and an upward revision since April's forecast.
• The IMF said the higher inflation forecast partly reflected one-off rises in regulated prices and "is projected to be temporary, with a loosening labour market and moderating wage growth". But Gourinchas said there were upward risks to these forecasts as British businesses' and households' expectations for future inflation had been rising and wage growth remained high.
• The BoE has cut rates five times since August 2024, lowering them to 4% from 5.25% but the most recent rate cut in August was only approved by a narrow 5-4 margin and financial markets do not fully price in another cut until March 2026. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has said he expects rates to be cut again, but when and by how much depends on inflation pressures in the economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Fed is facing a rare and contradictory economic environment, characterised by stronger-than-expected growth (with growth estimated near 4.0%), coupled with a potentially stagnant or declining job market indicated by negative private-sector job growth in September. Fed officials, like Governor Christopher Waller, noted that this contradiction, growth alongside negative job growth. is unsustainable, and one of the two metrics must soon adjust.
• The economic picture is further complicated by President Donald Trump’s policies, specifically tariffs and immigration restrictions, which economists worry could lead to the worst-case scenario: simultaneous higher inflation and higher unemployment. While investment is driving short-term productivity gains, the long-term cost of tariffs is expected to be passed to consumers, with projected inflation to remain above the target through next year.
• The decision-making is severely hindered by a U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed the release of critical official data, including the jobs report. This forces policymakers to rely on incomplete, private-sector indicators to gauge the job market's health before the meeting.
• Policymakers are divided between those who believe inflation remains unanchored and needs higher rates and those who fear the job market is on the verge of a fast slide and needs further rate cuts. Despite the risks, officials like Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson and Governor Waller currently view a path of cautious, quarter-point rate cuts this year as appropriate to balance inflation control with protecting the job market.
• Investors generally expect the Fed to proceed with two more this year, lowering the benchmark rate to the range. However, some analysts warn that if inflation expectations become unanchored due to the delayed pass-through of tariff costs, these expected cuts could be viewed in hindsight as a policy mistake

(Source: Reuters)

• For July 2025, net Remittance Inflows to Jamaica increased 4,6% year-over-year to US$281.9Mn according to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). The increase reflects a US$13.4Mn (+4.6%) increase in total remittance inflows, which was marginally offset by a 5.4% (US$1.0Mn) rise in remittance outflows.
• There were higher flows via the Remittance Companies channel, but the increase was partly offset by a decline via the Other Remittances channel.
• The U.S. remains the largest source market for remittance flows to the island, accounting for 68.1% of total flows, down from the 68.4% recorded for July 2024. The United Kingdom (11.2%), Canada (10.5%) and the Cayman Islands (6.0%) were also notable sources.
• Year to date, net remittances have increased by 3.1% to US$1.94Bn, supported by higher remittance inflows (+3.9%) in tandem with lower remittance outflows (-9.9%).
• Looking ahead, remittances are anticipated to remain steady for the next two years, further supporting the outlook (Fitch Ratings). However, the announcement of a 1.0% excise tax that will take effect on December 31, 2025, on cash-based remittances from the US and tighter immigration policies are key risks that could reduce remittance inflows to the country. However, local remittance firms expect little fallout from the 1.0% excise tax as strong digital adoption by consumers and years of investment in alternative remittance channels could act as key buffers.

(Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)

• On October 13, 2025, Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T’s) Minister of Finance Honourable Davendranath Tancoo made his first National Budget presentation since the reelection of the United National Congress (UNC) under the theme “Building Economic Fairness through Accountable Fiscal Policies”.
• In the presentation, the government of Trinidad and Tobago (GoTT) has forecasted a FY2025/2026 deficit of TTD3.865Bn (2.17% of GDP). This outturn is based on an oil price assumption of US$73.25 per barrel, down from US$77.80 in the previous fiscal year, a natural gas price assumption of US$4.25 per MMBtu, up from US$3.59, and anticipated oil revenue of TTD55.367Bn.
• The 2026 Budget focuses on diversification across agriculture, manufacturing, renewable energy, tourism and the creative industries, which opens new avenues for business and collaboration. Therefore, with projected revenue of TTD55Bn, including non-oil revenue of TTD43Bn (81%), the country continues to make progress in broadening its economic base beyond oil and gas.
• Amongst the announcements were a 0.25% levy on the assets of Commercial Banks and Insurance Companies Operating in T&T; a landlord business surcharge of 2.5% for rental income equal to or less than TTD20,000,3.5% for rental income above TTD200,000; and an increase in Fees, Charges, and Excise Duties. All measures are set to take effect on January 1, 2026. These measures, while increasing revenue, also contribute to a more balanced financial framework for the national budget.
• To support domestic financing, the Minister revealed plans for a new National Investment Fund (NIF) Bond backed by 21% of the Government’s shareholding in First Citizens Bank Holdings Limited. This is aimed at raising TT$1Bn, which is likely the first phase of a broader domestic financing strategy. Additionally, the GoTT announced the implementation of a 3% increase in the contribution rate of the NIF effective January 5, 2026, followed by another 3% increase from January 4, 2027, and the gradual adjustment to the retirement age for a full NIS pension to 65 from 60 over the next 10 years.
• Equally significant is the renewed focus on youth development and education, with an allocation of TTD8.77Bn (14.8% of total expenditure) to build the future talent and skills base of the nation. Overall, the GoTT is set to prioritise investments in education, followed by investments in Health (TTD8.214Bn) and national security (TTD6.366Bn).
• The Government’s strong emphasis on reform, disciplined financial management, and governance, if executed efficiently and in a timely manner could significantly improve the diversification prospects of the economy by reducing the dependence on energy, increasing labour productivity, and promoting a more business-friendly environment. That said, the deficit is expected to average 2.3% for fiscal years 2026-2028 and will likely be financed with domestic, external, and multilateral lending, as well as possible withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund, the HSF.

(Sources: GoTT, Aegis Budget Newsletter, S&P Global Ratings)

• Total offshore production from Guyana’s Stabroek Block has hit over 700,000 barrels of oil per day, President of ExxonMobil Guyana Limited Alistair Routledge confirmed at a press briefing on Monday, October 13.
• The start-up of the Yellowtail development is behind the spike. The project struck oil on August 8. According to Routledge, Yellowtail production was “around 740,000 barrels per day in September”. Production is now somewhere around 770,000 barrels per day.
• Yellowtail is the fourth producing project offshore Guyana, joining Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara. Together, the developments give the country more than 900,000 b/d of installed production capacity. All four are situated in the prolific Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil, along with partners Hess, which was recently acquired by Chevron, and CNOOC.
• With a gross domestic product (GDP) growth projected at 10.3%, Guyana is the fastest-growing economy in the Latin America and the Caribbean region by a significant margin according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• Guyana’s explosive growth is largely due to the considerable investment and ongoing development in its oil and gas industry with ExxonMobil and its partners having outlined plans to boost output capacity to 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030. Guyana grew by 43% in 2020, peaked at 63% in 2023, and is forecasted to grow by an additional 10.3% in 2025.

(Sources: Oil Now & ECLAC)

• Surging business investment is expected to offset weaker growth in consumption and global trade and keep the U.S. economy growing near trend, according to a National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey. However, slow job growth, higher unemployment and stickier inflation will mar the outlook.
• The Trump administration's new import taxes remain a drag on the economy's performance, the survey concluded, with more than 60% of the 40 economists in the poll estimating tariffs would knock up to half a percentage point from economic growth, with both imports and exports falling, and consumer prices rising as a result of the levies.
• While none of the polled economists saw tariffs boosting growth, the latest version of NABE's quarterly survey upgraded the more pessimistic views about the U.S. outlook. This upbeat in the growth outlook follows projections offered earlier in the year when concerns about the economic blow from tariffs and the risks of a broader trade war were at their peak. That said, the median projection was for the economy to grow 1.8% in 2025, around most estimates of underlying potential, compared to 1.3% projected in the June survey.
• Inflation as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was seen ending the year at 3%, down slightly from the 3.1% projected as at June. But it was also seen declining only to 2.5% in 2026, compared to 2.3% in the June survey, indicating a slower return towards the Fed's 2% target.
• The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was seen rising through next year though less than feared as at June to 4.5% versus 4.7% in the prior survey.
• More notably, the Fed is seen cutting interest rates, though at a slightly slower pace than anticipated by investors, with only one more rate cut anticipated this year versus the two quarter-point cuts currently priced into contracts tied to the central bank's benchmark interest rate.
• Overall, the survey highlighted one of the ongoing puzzles that Fed officials in particular are trying to understand - GDP growth that has begun surprising to the upside while job growth remains tepid.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports has sounded alarm bells among retail and trade experts, who caution it could lead to more price increases and squeeze demand.
• The fresh levies, set to take effect November 1, would come as shoppers and retailers enter the holiday shopping season - a period that typically accounts for a major chunk of annual retail sales - and dampen consumer sentiment, particularly among lower-income households.
• The tariff threat could prompt a "pull-forward of shipments" as retailers try to beat implementation timelines, said Blake Harden, managing director at Washington Council EY. However, he cautioned that accelerated imports might still be hit by duties upon arrival, leading some firms to delay orders or hold shipments in China. "This will have ripple effects throughout the supply chain," Harden said.
• The trade spat this year between the U.S. and key trading partners has clouded the economy, weighed on forecasts for this fiscal year and stoked uncertainty for American consumers and companies alike.
• Prices for everything from clothes to TVs have gone up in recent months as manufacturers and retailers struggle with the ever-changing tariff environment while also trying to offset rising commodity and supply-chain costs.
• "This will add another layer of anxiety to an already anxious retail sector. Retailers have shown they can manage tariffs, but what's far harder to manage is volatility in tariff rates," CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram said.
• So far this year, retailers have issued mixed outlooks ahead of the holiday season. Target and Best Buy maintained their annual forecasts, while Walmart and Macy's raised theirs. Toymaker Mattel, however, reduced its expectations.

(Source: Reuters)

• FirstRock Real Estate Investments, “FirstRock” through its wholly owned subsidiary First Rock LATAM S.A., announced the successful completion of its third development project with KFC Costa Rica. The project, which started in April 2025, features a modern restaurant (handed over in June 2025) and an advanced distribution centre (handed over in August).
• Strategically located in Coyol, the main industrial hub of Costa Rica, this development, particularly the distribution centre, holds significant value for KFC as it will enhance and streamline its logistical operations across the region.
• Management noted that the project’s completion reinforces FirstRock’s growing regional footprint and dedication to creating long-term value through innovative and sustainable real estate investments across Latin America and the Caribbean.
• After the market closed on October 9, 2025, FIRSTROCK shares traded at $10.89 per share, up 8.5% year to date. At this price, the stock carries a 0.72x P/B multiple, which is above the 0.57x Real Estate Sector Average.

(Source: JSE)

• Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, has commended the three local properties that have been ranked among the top-10 hotels in the Caribbean and Central America in the Condé Nast Traveller Readers’ Choice Awards 2025.
• They are Jamaica Inn in Ocho Rios, St. Ann, at number four; S Hotel Montego Bay at number five; and S Hotel Kingston at number seven.
• Speaking with JIS News, he noted that the recognition by one of the most reputable travel outlets in the world is a testament to how Jamaica’s hospitality sector is viewed internationally and has further cemented the island’s position as a first-call destination of “the highest order”.
• The Condé Nast Traveller Readers’ Choice Awards are among the travel industry’s most prestigious honours, determined by discerning readers who rate properties on service, design, location, and overall guest experience.
• General Manager of Jamaica Inn, Kyle Mais, expressed pride in the acknowledgement. Likewise, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of S Hotels Jamaica, Christopher Issa, said he was happy that both S properties have been recognised.

(Source JIS)

• The Panama Canal has ended its fiscal year on a high note, with preliminary figures showing revenues up 14.4% to US$5.7Bn and total vessel transits rising 19.3% to 13,404 for the year ending September 30, 2025. The increase was driven mainly by container and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) traffic, marking a robust rebound in global maritime flows through the strategic waterway.
• Container ships and LPG carriers have carried much of the momentum this year. Demand for both segments remained strong, fueled by tighter vessel availability and continued congestion at the canal. Bulk carriers, which had previously lagged, also began to recover, a welcome sign for operators who weathered quieter periods in recent years.
• Interestingly, while LPG volumes surged, liquefied natural gas (LNG) traffic did not keep pace. Canal officials attributed this to ongoing global market challenges, including freight rate volatility and weaker LNG demand in key import regions. Discussions are already underway on how to improve transit flexibility for LNG carriers, a segment that remains strategically important for the canal’s long-term balance.
• Starting October 5, 2025, the canal authority extended service hours and introduced an updated transit reservation system aimed at improving accessibility for shippers. These operational changes come alongside a recently approved government budget that includes a significant US$1.6Bn reservoir project - a long-term investment designed to bolster the canal’s water supply and capacity. From November, transit quotas will adjust to 31 ships per day, split between 9 Neopanamax and 22 Panamax passages. The decision reflects a balancing act: maximising throughput while managing environmental and operational constraints.
• While the canal’s performance looks healthy on paper, the picture at sea tells a more complex story. Persistent congestion has led to surging LPG time charter rates, with some operators choosing to bypass Panama altogether, rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. It’s a costly alternative, but one some shippers say buys predictability in a year of uncertainty.
• Even as this year’s financials impress, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has cautioned that fiscal 2026 may bring softer numbers. Economic headwinds, tariff shifts, and freight rate volatility could all dampen volumes. Still, investment continues. Expansion projects are being lined up for 2026 to enhance capacity and sustainability. Among them: the new NetZero slot, launching this month, which gives preferential access to low-carbon vessels, a first for the canal. As global trade patterns evolve, the canal’s strategy seems clear: stay open, stay adaptable, and keep water - and ships - flowing.

(Source: BreakBulk News)