• Canada's trade surplus widened to C$3.86Bn in June, the highest level since May 2022 and the fourth consecutive monthly surplus, beating economists' forecast of C$3.00Bn. According to Statistics Canada, a weaker Canadian dollar helped inflate the value of both exports and imports.
• The average value of the Canadian dollar fell by 1.7 U.S. cents compared with May, marking its largest monthly decline since October 2022. In Canadian dollar terms, exports rose 0.4%, and imports edged up 0.2%, while in U.S. dollar terms, exports and imports declined 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively.
• Export growth was driven in part by a 16.5% increase in shipments of metal and non-metallic mineral products, although this was largely offset by a 10.0% decline in energy exports due to lower prices. Overall export volumes rose 1.1%, while import volumes fell 1.5%.
• Imports were supported by higher purchases of processing units used in data centres, while economists noted that the June trade data reinforced expectations that real GDP will rebound after flat growth in the previous quarter. Canada's export credit agency, Export Development Canada (EDC), also expects stronger shipments of gold and automobiles in the second half of the year.
• Although Canada is seeking to diversify trade in response to U.S. tariffs, it remains heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with 69.5% of exports destined for the United States in June. Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to C$9.98Bn from C$11.12Bn in May, as U.S. imports rose faster than exports.
• The fourth consecutive monthly trade surplus should help boost overall growth, with economists expecting real GDP to rebound in the second quarter. However, TD Economics cautioned that trade flows remain "noisy," with energy, automobiles, gold and computers.

(Source: Reuters)

• UK manufacturing activity expanded for a ninth consecutive month in July 2026, but slowed to a four-month low, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) revised down to 51.9 from 52.5 in June. The reading was also below the earlier flash estimate of 52.8, pointing to a renewed impact from the war on Iran towards the end of the month.
• S&P Global said the month-on-month decline reflected a steep reduction in stocks of purchases, slower jobs growth, and a sharp easing in the rate of increase in vendor lead times. Despite the slowdown, the PMI remained above the 50-point threshold, signalling continued expansion.
• The manufacturing output index rose to 52.9 from 52.6, marking the strongest growth since September 2024, although the increase was smaller than the flash estimate of 53.6. Small manufacturers reported a mild decline in production, while medium and larger firms continued to report growth.
• Manufacturers reported the smallest increase in input costs since February, while employment levels stagnated. The survey was conducted between July 9 and July 28, spanning the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran truce and the announcement of the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, which pushed oil prices above US$100 per barrel on July 23 and 24.
• Official data also showed manufacturing output increased 2.3% year-on-year in May, the largest annual increase since March 2024, suggesting the sector continued to benefit from stronger production despite slowing momentum in July.
• UK manufacturing continued to expand in July, however, the weaker headline PMI, stagnant employment and renewed supply pressures suggest the sector’s recovery remains vulnerable to further geopolitical and energy-market disruption.

(Source: Reuters)

• West Indies Petroleum Terminal (WIPT) reported another strong quarter, with net profit after tax increasing 36.0% year over year to US$0.93Mn for the three months ended June 2026. The improved performance was underpinned by higher storage and throughput activity, coupled with disciplined cost management.
• WIPT's pipeline continued to flow in the second quarter, as revenues increased 18.6% year over year to US$2.50Mn. Stronger third-party storage and throughput volumes and higher rates on related-party business drove the uplift. Third-party storage generated 43% of revenues, while third-party throughput gained significant traction, lifting its contribution to 19% of revenue from 6% in the prior-year quarter.
• WIPT's cost engine remained well-oiled, with operating expenses increasing by a modest 2.1% to US$2.51Mn year over year. The uptick was largely attributable to a 5.4% increase in other operating and administrative expenses, as the company maintained disciplined control over its expenses. Higher throughput volumes also supported improved operating efficiency, with quarterly throughput rising to 0.64 million barrels, compared with 0.46 million barrels a year earlier.
• The strong quarterly performance was mirrored in the six-month results. For the first half of 2026, revenue increased 21.0% to US$5.00Mn and operating profit climbed 41.0% to US$2.60Mn. Net profit after tax advanced 51.0% to US$1.90Mn, supported by continued growth in third-party storage and throughput volumes.
• Looking ahead, WIPT remains focused on fuelling growth through two key avenues: increasing volumes at its existing terminal and pursuing strategic acquisitions across the Caribbean region. The company plans to deepen supplier and customer relationships, expand its product offering, and leverage its competitive logistics position to capture further bunker throughput opportunities. Additionally, WIPT plans to pursue the development of terminal assets across the Caribbean basin as suitable opportunities emerge.
• However, the outlook is not without risks, as further escalation of geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran conflict, could drive oil prices higher and weigh on local demand. This could also lead to reduced third-party demand for storage and throughput services, potentially impacting revenue growth and earnings
• WIPT’s stock price has increased by 584% since the start of the year to close at $8.94 on August 3, 2026. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-book (P/E) ratio of 255.8x, which far exceeds than the Main Market Energy, Industrial and Materials (EIM) Sector’s average of 18.3x. Despite WIPT’s strong share price appreciation, the stock continues to trade with limited liquidity, as reflected by an average daily traded volume of just 57.8K shares relative to its 11.18Bn shares outstanding

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Mayberry Jamaican Equities Limited (MJEL) staged a significant earnings recovery in Q2 2026, returning to profitability with net earnings of US$5.58Mnn for the three months ended June 30, 2026. The result represented an approximately US$18.9 million turnaround from the US$13.3 million net loss recorded in Q1 2026 and a US$14.16Mn improvement compared with the US$8.78Mn loss reported in Q2 2025, a sharp reversal in investment performance.
• The recovery was driven primarily by stronger market valuations across the Company's investment portfolio, particularly its key associate holdings. This resulted in net unrealised gains of US$5.1Mn on investments in associates during the quarter. MJEL also recorded US$0.79Mn in net unrealised gains on financial instruments measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), further supporting overall earnings.
• Although investment gains supported the return to profitability, dividend income remained below the prior-year period, indicating that the quarter's earnings recovery was driven largely by favourable mark-to-market movements rather than recurring investment income
• Total operating expenses amounted to US$0.26Mn for the quarter, representing a decrease of 15.8% when compared to Q2 2025. The reduction was mainly attributable to lower expenses incurred for management fees, partially offset by higher professional fees. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, total operating expenses decreased by 5% or US$0.02Mn when compared to the prior year.
• Despite the strong second-quarter rebound, MJEL reported a net loss of US$7.70Bn for the six months ended June 30, 2026, reflecting the significant losses incurred during the first quarter. Nevertheless, the year-to-date loss narrowed substantially from US$31.04Mn in the corresponding period of 2025, highlighting a marked improvement in financial performance as equity market conditions stabilised.
• Looking ahead, earnings are expected to continue recovering through the remainder of the year, supported by positive performance in a set of large-cap stocks since the start of 2026. However, risks remain, as persistent inflationary pressures could delay the Bank of Jamaica’s easing cycle. A slower pace of interest rate reductions may weigh on equity market momentum, given that lower rates are typically a key catalyst for improved stock market performance.
• MJE’s stock price has decreased by 26.9% since the start of the year to close at $6.40 on August 3, 2026. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.8x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.1x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Bahamas Central Bank’s governor yesterday predicted The Bahamas will once again confound the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other observers by outperforming their 2026 expectations, with full-year growth set to come in “just below” last year’s 3.8%. This outlook is premised on stronger-than-expected tourism activity, sustained foreign direct investment, resilient construction activity, expanding private sector credit and improving labour market conditions, which have underpinned growth during the first half of the year.
• John Rolle, speaking at the regulator’s half-year economic developments conference, said the economy maintained healthy growth during the first half despite facing headwinds from higher inflation driven by rising world oil and fuel prices, ever-present geopolitical uncertainties and frequent, prolonged power outages at home.
• On a year- to-date basis, total arrivals expanded by 14.2% to 6.1 million visitors. Contributing to this development, sea passengers advanced by 15.9% to 5.2 million, while air traffic registered a 4.8% rebound to 0.9 million visitors, vis-à-vis an incremental contraction of 1.0% in 2025. According to the latest data provided by Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD), total departures, net of domestic traffic, increased by 3.9% to 153,704 in June, relative to the comparative period of 2025.
• In the six-months to June, total outbound traffic recovered by 5.0% to 0.9 million, after the cumulative reduction of 2.3% in 2025. In particular, international traffic increased by 35.1% to 168,356, while US departures stabilized at 0.7 million. Foreign investment remained concentrated in resort developments, residential real estate projects and private cruise destinations, supporting construction activity and creating both temporary and permanent jobs.
• Mr Rolle said inflation has accelerated because of higher fuel costs and rising prices for imported goods and services stemming from geopolitical tensions. “Turning to inflation, recent firming was evident, owing to higher prices for imported fuel, impacting transportation costs and a range of elevated pricing on other imports,” he said. Average consumer price inflation, as measured by the All-Bahamas Retail Price Index, increased to 2.1% during the 12 months to April 2026, after registering a 0.2% decline in the corresponding period of 2025. 
• While domestic electricity prices have been partially shielded by Bahamas Power & Light’s (BPL) fuel hedge, higher generation costs could eventually filter through once those protections expire.
• That said, the economy continues to face significant external risks, including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, persistent tariff uncertainty and weaker consumer confidence in key tourism markets. Nevertheless, tourism, foreign investment, employment growth and domestic lending are all expected to remain supportive of continued economic expansion.

(Sources: The Tribune and the Central Bank of the Bahamas)

• Brazil's central bank is set to cut interest rates for a fourth consecutive time when it meets on August 5, a Reuters poll showed, with inflation concerns preventing a faster reduction ​of one of the highest base borrowing rates among major economies.
• The bank's monetary policy committee, known as Copom, has brought rates down to 14.25% from a near-two-decade high of ​15% in three quarter-point cuts since the start of the year. This small-step approach is likely to be extended ​on Wednesday, keeping the Selic rate at a still-restrictive level against persistent price pressures despite ⁠some inflation relief last month.
• Myria Bast, deputy chief economist ​at Banco Bradesco, said ⁠another cut in September was justified as the inflation outlook had improved due to the waning impact of the initial oil price shock from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. “Since the last ​Copom meeting, the data have come in better, the effects of (tight) monetary policy are ​becoming apparent, with ⁠growth moderating and inflation dissipating,” she said.
• However, Citi analysts listed further de-anchoring in inflation expectations, fiscal expansion ahead of the presidential vote in October, and resilient economic activity as reasons for rates to stay on hold this week.
• “Our call is based on ⁠the worrisome ​dynamic of inflation expectations, which continue to de-anchor from the 3.0% target ​for longer horizons - 2027-2028 - despite the recent lower-than-expected inflation prints,” Citi said in a report.
• Following the expected 25-basis-point cut this week, the Reuters poll suggests the Selic rate will remain at 14.00% through the end of 2026, the ​bank is forecast to stay on hold at 14.00% until the start of 2027, according to the median estimate of 38 respondents who ‌gave quarterly views. The central bank is then expected to resume a gradual loosening campaign after the government elected in October's presidential vote is inaugurated in January.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday, August 3, 2026, that talks with Iran were underway, warning that it was a “last chance” for Tehran to sign a deal to end the five-month-old war. However, Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place or that any meetings were planned.
• According to Trump, the talks were being held at the request of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. His comments followed his decision over the weekend to call off what he described as “massive attacks” on Iran, repeating a pattern of threatening military action before stepping back.
• However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no negotiations with the United States were taking place and no meetings were scheduled. According to Tehran, the only talks underway were with Oman over management of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a central point of contention. Washington says the June memorandum required Iran to reopen the waterway, while Tehran maintains that the agreement preserved its authority over shipping traffic. Trump also repeated that the U.S. Navy had total control over the Strait.
• Oil prices dropped sharply after Trump cancelled the planned attack, easing fears of a further disruption to Gulf supplies. Brent crude fell by about 7% to US$83.77 per barrel, while WTI declined to around US$80.34. Oil's sharp fall also sent the cost of government borrowing lower on Monday over hopes that it would ease inflation.
• Despite the fall in prices, risks to oil supply remain. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruption, while threats from Yemen’s Houthi rebels have caused some Saudi and Russian tankers to alter their routes.
• The contradictory statements from Washington and Tehran suggest there is little prospect for a diplomatic resolution anytime soon. While the cancellation of the planned attack reduced the immediate risk premium in oil prices, continued shipping disruptions and uncertainty over whether talks are actually taking place could keep markets volatile.

(Sources: Reuters & Bloomberg)

• U.S. oil exports fell to 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, the lowest level in eight months, as a short-lived peace deal between the U.S. and Iran in June briefly flooded markets with Middle Eastern oil and diminished demand for American crude abroad. Earlier this year, U.S. exports surged to a record 5.7 million bpd in May after the war in Iran disrupted Middle Eastern supplies.
• The June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran briefly allowed stuck tankers to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing oil supply to global markets. During the peace deal period, the number of tankers exiting the Strait peaked at 42 per day, contributing to a steady decline in U.S. exports.
• The share of U.S. crude exports to Asia fell to 40% in July from 52% in June, as major buyers reduced purchases. Exports to Japan, the largest buyer in June and July, declined 67% to 324,000 bpd, while shipments to South Korea fell 39% to 474,000 bpd. Exports to Europe also declined to 1.7 million bpd, down from 2.5 million bpd in May.
• High refinery utilisation in the U.S. also kept barrels away from export markets. The four-week average refinery utilisation reached 96.3%, the highest since 2018, while crude oil inputs to refineries rose to their highest level in about seven years.
• Analysts expect exports to recover in August and September as the discount of WTI to Brent widened again, improving the competitiveness of U.S. crude. Export volumes are expected to exceed 4 million bpd, although they are unlikely to return to the record levels seen in April and May.
• The sharp decline in U.S. exports highlights how quickly global crude trade flows can shift as Middle Eastern supplies recover. However, analysts noted that U.S. exports could increase again if the conflict in the Middle East escalates, with the U.S. retaining export capacity of about 6 million bpd.

(Source: Reuters)

• GraceKennedy Limited (GK) reported net profit attributable to stockholders of $2.39Bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (Q2 2026), up 18.0% from $2.03Bn. A marginal rise in core revenues and higher other income, which countered expenses and a decline in share of profits from associates and Joint ventures, were the primary drivers of the growth in earnings.
• Core Q2 revenues edged up 1.8% to $45.61Bn. On a six-month basis, growth was supported by a 3.3% or $2.28Bn increase from its Food segment and a 9.6% or $1.85Bn jump from its Financial Services (FS) segment. Within FS, Banking & Investments revenues grew 12.1%, benefiting from loan book expansion at First Global Bank, stronger investment income and higher advisory fee income. Insurance revenues advanced 14.4% on growth in general insurance, motor insurance and group life and health insurance portfolios. In contrast, Money Services revenues fell 5.5%, reflecting ongoing shifts in market dynamics within the remittance business.
• Expenses grew more slowly (+1.2%) to $43.64Bn, owing to tight cost management across the Group and a 48.5% reduction in net impairment losses on financial assets to $106.0Mn. However, stronger investment gains meant other income surged 32.1% to $1.72Bn, which lifted profit from operations by 24.1% to $3.69Bn. Consequently, operating margins rose from 6.6% to 8.1%.
• Below the operating line, interest expense on non-financial services was broadly flat at $531.6Mn (+2.4%). Meanwhile, share of results of associates and joint ventures declined 8.7% to $226.5Mn and Taxation rose 35.6% to $1.12Bn, taking the effective tax rate to 31.0% from 28.0%.
• With the positive Q2 outturn, shareholder profits for the 6 months grew 11.8% to $4.75Bn. 6M revenue grew by 4.6% to $93.09Bn, while total expenses rose by 3.7% and share of results of associates and joint ventures slipped by 42.8% to $422.07Mn.
• Management also declared a third interim dividend of $0.70 per stock unit payable September 21, 2026. Consequently, GK’s dividend yield based on declarations over the last 12 month would be 3.4%.
• Looking ahead, management expects continued momentum in the Insurance and Banking & Investments segments supported by digital initiatives^[1] and a new core insurance platform to be rolled out later this year. The risks are largely demand and cost related. Meanwhile, pressure on consumer spending and increased price sensitivity in the domestic market, as higher inflation erodes disposable income, continue to weigh on food distribution. Supply chain constraints tied to geopolitical tensions and climate change are an immediate threat to input costs. Recovery at the Grace Foods Processors Meats factory in Westmoreland following Hurricane Melissa is also ongoing. Lastly, money Services revenue is still contracting on shifting market dynamics. This likely reflects the migration from traditional cash transfers to digital money transactions, which has prompted GK to expand its own digital offering. However, with that transition still incomplete, its cash-based remittance volumes remain exposed to competitive pressure, which may have led to the revenue decline.
• As at the close of trading on July 30^th, GK shares was J$75.65, a 5.8% year-to-date increase. At this price, the shares trade at a P/E of 10.13x, which is below the Main Market Conglomerate Average of 11.28x.

(Source: GraceKennedy Limited Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

^[1] Including First Global Bank's digital onboarding, loan automation and credit card approval solutions targeted for public launch by year end.

• For the second quarter ending June 2026 (Q2 2026), Supreme Ventures Limited’s (SVL’s) reported net profit attributable to stockholders was relatively flat at J$777.1Mn versus J$784.4Mn for Q2 2025. Higher finance costs and a higher tax charge absorbed an otherwise stronger operating performance.
• Q2 total gaming income advanced 4.8% or J$673.5Mn to J$14.67Bn, driven by its core segments. Sports betting grew 9.1% year-over-year on higher ticket sales, PIN codes rose 6.6%, and the lottery segment grew by 0.8% despite prize payouts exceeding 70% of sales.
• Direct costs rose at a slightly faster 5.0% to J$11.34Bn, leaving gross profit up 4.1% at J$3.34Bn. Q2 selling, general and administrative expenses were broadly flat at J$2.24Bn (+0.4%), despite continued business expansion. Combined with a 130.7% jump in other income to J$153.2Mn, this lifted Q2 operating profit 16.5% to J$1.30Bn and pushed the operating margin to 8.8% from 7.9%.
• However, below the operating line, finance costs increased 29.0% to J$270.0Mn in the quarter and 22.6% to J$526.8Mn for the six months, following a bond refinancing undertaken to support the Group's growth initiatives. Taxation was a larger drag, rising 95.7% to J$247.6Mn and taking the Q2 effective tax rate to 24.2% from 14.0%. Management expects finance costs to ease over the medium term as principal balances on the Group's amortising debt continue to decline.
• With Q2 earnings flat, 6M 2026 earnings grew 14.0% to J$1.48Bn. 6M Revenue grew 4.7% to J$29.14Bn, with management attributing the increase primarily to a J$580.19Mn rise in sports betting and a J$193.72Mn rise in lottery revenues. Direct costs rose 4.88% to $21.47Bn while operating expenses totalled J$4.54Bn (+2.19%) and finance costs were up 22.7% to 526.79Bn.
• Looking ahead, Supreme Ventures Fintech Limited (SVFL) has pulled forward the commercial launch of its Evo Cash digital wallet and Mastercard-backed prepaid card to the third quarter of 2026, from a previously anticipated year-end launch. The solution is being tested in the Bank of Jamaica's Regulatory Sandbox and targets Jamaica's unbanked and underserved communities. The Group is also expanding self-serve kiosks in select retail locations and has BOJ approval for an additional 10 remittance locations over the next month, taking its network to 55. Lastly, expansion in Ghana remains a potential major growth engine, which management expects to double local earnings if it can increase its market share from approximately 2.0% to 5.0%.
• Near-term risks are largely cost and consumer-related. Prize payouts above 70% and direct costs growing ahead of revenue leave gross margins thin, while the recovery from Hurricane Melissa, which struck in October 2025, is still in progress, with sales as at June 30, 2026 only 1.5% ahead of the prior year. Elevated finance costs and a normalising tax rate could also pressure margins in the near term.
• As at the close of trading on July 30^th, SVL shares were J$18.24, a 5.6% year-to-date increase. At this price, the shares trade at a P/E of 23.61x.

(Sources: Supreme Ventures Limited Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)