• Britain's annual rate of consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to its highest in over a year at 3.6% in June 2025, official figures showed on Wednesday, June 17, 2025, slightly dampening expectations for further cuts in Bank of England (BoE) interest rates. June's reading from the Office for National Statistics took the annual CPI rate to its highest since January 2024, against expectations from economists in a Reuters poll for it to remain unchanged at May's reading of 3.4%.
• British inflation has risen steadily since touching a three-year low of 1.7% last September, and in May 2025, the BoE forecast it would peak at 3.7% in September 2025 - almost twice the central bank's 2% target. Following the release of the data, the Sterling rose slightly against the dollar, five-year gilt yields hit a one-month high and financial markets priced in slightly lower chances of a quarter-point BoE rate cut in August and another later in the year.
• Food and non-alcoholic drink prices were 4.5% higher than a year earlier, the biggest rise since February 2024. Previously, April brought a particularly sharp jump in inflation to 3.5% from 2.6% due to rises in regulated energy and water tariffs, a spike in air fares, and upward pressure on the cost of labour-intensive services from a rise in employment taxes and the minimum wage. Despite this, Governor Andrew Bailey has said interest rates are likely to remain on a gradual downward path, as a weaker labour market puts downward pressure on wage growth and the outlook for economic growth remains lacklustre.
• The BoE has cut interest rates by four quarter-point steps since August 2024 and economists polled by Reuters last month forecast two more quarter-point rate cuts this year, including a likely move in August 2025. However, some BoE policymakers are concerned that skills mismatches in Britain's labour market and other supply constraints will keep wage growth running too fast for inflation to return to target any time soon.

(Source: Reuters)

• Some top executives at Wall Street banks have been showing concern about higher inflation and potential deterioration of the U.S. economy as tariffs take effect, noting there has been more cautious behaviour from corporate clients. "We have seen pauses in capex and hiring amongst our client base," Citigroup's Jane Fraser told analysts on Tuesday, July 15, 2025. "All of that said, the strength of the U.S. economy, driven by the American entrepreneur and a healthy consumer, has certainly been exceeding expectations of late."
• Citigroup expects consumer spending to cool in the second half if a spike in prices occurs. In addition, Wells Fargo CEO, Charles Scharf, said he has met with some commercial banking clients and described how they are navigating the new environment. "Many have found ways to avoid passing the 10% tariffs on to their customers," Scharf said." At the same time, they are preparing for the downside and are not growing inventories or hiring aggressively and developing contingency plans if the downside scenario occurs", he told analysts.
• Following "Liberation Day," global brokerages saw a greater chance of a recession this year, with JPMorgan calculating a 60% probability. Major firms later trimmed their gloomy outlook. JPMorgan sees the recession probability now at 40%. However, many executives said their main concern is how consumers will react if goods prices surge because of tariffs.
• Goldman Sachs CEO, David Solomon, highlighted the amount of uncertainty going ahead. "Geopolitical concerns have intensified in many regions, but notably in the Middle East, a number of trade agreements have yet to materialise, and that the ultimate impact on growth from higher tariffs is yet unknown," he told analysts on Wednesday, July 16, 2025. Overall, top executives said they expect the dealmaking pipeline to pick up in the second half of the year, as business owners get more comfortable with the new tariff environment.

(Source: Reuters)

• After inching up in May 2025, local consumer prices for June 2025 declined by 0.3% relative to May 2025, while 12-month point-to-point (P2P) growth relative to June 2024 moderated to 3.8%, according to newly released data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• The monthly decline was primarily driven by a 1.5% decrease in the cost of ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ , amid lower electricity rates and tax on residential electricity charges. Additionally, a 1% drop in cost of ‘Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Relating to the Dwelling’ also contributed.
• There was a 0.3% fall in the price of ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’, mainly attributable to a 4.9% fall in ‘Fruits and nuts’ prices and a 0.8% decrease in ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ prices.
• However, a 1.4% increase in the ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ partially countered the declines. This was largely due to an increase of approximately 6.7% in the National Minimum Wage, effective June 1, 2025, which contributed to a 1.8% increase in the price of ‘Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance’.
• With the June price decline, P2P inflation cooled from 5.2% for May 2025 to 3.8% for June 2025, the lowest it’s been since April 2021. The outturn was influenced mainly by ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+4.7%), ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’(+4.6%), and ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (+6.1%).
• Prior to the latest CPI reading, Fitch Solutions forecasted that the BOJ would lower the policy rate by 75bps to 5.00% by December 2025, supported by broadly stable price pressures and inflation expectations. However, Fitch noted that while favourable domestic macro indicators point to additional rate cuts in the near term, ongoing uncertainty in global trade and interest rate policy, as well as recent spikes in geopolitical tensions, would prompt the BOJ to hold rates in August at its next meeting. Given the significant decline in P2P in June, however, there could be heightened expectations for an August rate cut.

(Sources: STATIN, BOJ, & BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica’s (STATIN’s) Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed the unemployment rate stood at 3.3% in April 2025. The 3.3% rate marks a decline from 4.2% in April 2024.
• The total number of unemployed individuals amounted to 50,000, down from 62,800 in April 2024. Male unemployment was 2.5%, down from 3.3%, while females’ unemployment was 4.3%, down from 5.3% in April 2024. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed youth (persons aged 14-24) decreased by 9,800 to 19,600, representing a 33.3% total reduction.
• The labour force, consisting of 1,494,400 people as of April 2025, increased by 11,300 since April 2024. However, the total participation rate decreased marginally from 69.3%, down 0.5 percentage points compared to April 2024.
• Despite the decline in participation rate over 12 months, employment levels rose across most categories. The Employed Labour Force totalled 1,444,500 individuals, reflecting an increase of 24,200 persons (+1.7%) compared to April 2024. The number of employed males increased by 7,300 (+1.0%) to 769,500, while the number of employed females grew by 16,800 individuals (+2.6%) to 674,900.
• This growth was led by the occupation group ‘Services and Sales Worker’, reflecting an increase in employment of 21,200 persons (6.5%), while the ‘Professionals’ was the occupation group with the second highest increase of 7,000 individuals (5.7%).

(Source: STATIN)

• The Trump administration announced on Monday a duty of about 17% on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, which account for two-thirds of the tomatoes eaten in the U.S., and the end of an export deal between the two countries.
• The Commerce Department said the U.S. was withdrawing from a 2019 agreement with Mexico that suspended an antidumping duty investigation on Mexican tomatoes, whose exports to the U.S. are valued at $3 billion a year.
• The move came as President Donald Trump's administration seeks to negotiate comprehensive trade agreements with virtually every trading partner after the president launched a dizzying series of tariff announcements in April. The U.S. and Mexico first struck an agreement in 1996 to regulate Mexican tomato exports and address U.S. complaints of unfair competition. The pact was last renewed six years ago to avert an antidumping investigation and end a tariff dispute.
• Mexico said in April it was confident that it could renew the tomato agreement when Washington said it intended to withdraw from the deal. The 17.09% antidumping duty is set at the percentage by which exported Mexican tomatoes have been unfairly underpriced in the United States, it said.
• S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that for too long, farmers have suffered due to unfair trade practices that undercut the prices of produce such as tomatoes. Mexico's ministries of economy and agriculture said in a joint statement that the U.S. decision was "unfair" and against the interests of Mexican producers and the U.S. industry.
• Mexican tomato growers had offered proposals that were positive for the U.S., but were rejected for "political reasons," the statement added. A group of five Mexican agriculture associations, including from Baja California and Sinaloa states, said they were committed to working with the Mexican government to find solutions.

(Source: Reuters)

• Panama accumulated $4.98Bn in services exports in the first quarter of 2025, the highest figure for that period since 2023, leveraged by the interoceanic Canal, the logistics hub, and the Central American country’s ports.
• Foreign sales of services between January and March registered a 10.2% growth compared to the same period in 2024, said the MICI, citing data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). The trade ministry noted that transportation was the main driver of the indicator’s performance, with revenues of $2.55Bn, boosted by the Panama Canal, the logistics hub, and the ports.
• It added that travel services, with $1.71Bn, showed a steady rebound driven by the recovery of international tourism. The “sustained” growth in the sale of services abroad is attributed to an economic policy geared toward the diversification and modernisation of the export offering. It was also supported by special regimes such as Multinational Enterprise Headquarters (SEM), Manufacturing Services (EMMA), and Free Trade Zones.
• Panama has thus consolidated its position as the largest exporter of services in Central America and the third largest in Latin America. As a result, the country is a strategic player in regional and global trade, with a robust platform that continues to grow and diversify.
• Panama’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.2% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2024, driven primarily by the performance of the interoceanic Canal, according to INEC data. Panama’s GDP grew 2.9% in 2024, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects it to expand 4% in 2025, above the regional expectation of 2% and the global expectation of 2.8%, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) highlighted.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• Rising prices across an array of goods pulled inflation higher in June 2025 in what economists see as evidence of the Trump administration's increasing import taxes passing through to consumers. Overall, consumer prices rose 0.3% in June 2025, a roughly 3.5% annual rate, after a 0.1% increase in May 2025. Notably, core inflation increased at a 2.9% annual rate in June, slightly below the 3% consensus forecast, but slightly faster than in May. Meanwhile, food and energy costs both increased, pushing headline inflation up to 2.7% from 2.4% the prior month.
• Economists and Fed officials say they were expecting inflation to gather pace this summer as the lagged impact of tariffs gets passed along by businesses, and the June 2025 data suggests central bank policymakers may remain reluctant to cut interest rates until more information is at hand. The tariff price shock could ultimately prove a temporary, one-time adjustment. But with the final tariff levels still being considered by President Donald Trump, and steeper levies threatened as of August 1, the inflation outlook remains unsettled.
• Head of Inflation Insights, Omair Sharif, stated that "Today's report showed that tariffs are beginning to bite, …apparel prices rose, household furnishing prices jumped ... and recreation commodities increased." These are heavily imported items and the increases were substantial. Prices for audio-video equipment rose 1.1% over the month and have risen 11.1% on a year over year basis, the largest jump ever in a category where globalization had generally meant steady or falling prices.
• It will likely strike a note of caution for the Fed, which has been facing almost daily criticism from Trump for not cutting interest rates, a step central banker have been reluctant to take until it is clear where the tariffs will leave the U.S. economy. In a speech in Washington Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins warned that she continues to expect the rise in import taxes to push up inflation while pushing down growth and employment. But she added strong balance sheets on both the business and household sides may help absorb the hit and lessen its impact.

(Source: Reuters)

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Wednesday that countries such as Brazil, China and India could be hit very hard by secondary sanctions if they continued to do business with Russia.
• Rutte made the comment while meeting with senators in the U.S. Congress the day after President Donald Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened "biting" secondary tariffs of 100% on the buyers of Russian exports unless there is a peace deal in 50 days.
• "My encouragement to these three countries, particularly is, if you live now in Beijing, or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard," Rutte told reporters, who met with Trump on Monday and agreed the new steps.
• "So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India and on China in a massive way," Rutte added. He also said that Europe would find the money to ensure Ukraine was in the best possible position in peace talks.
• Republican U.S. Senator Thom Tillis praised Trump for announcing the steps, but said the 50-day delay "worries" him. He said he was concerned that "Putin would try to use the 50 days to win the war, or to be better positioned to negotiate a peace agreement. "So we should look at the current state of Ukraine today and say, no matter what you do over the next 50 days, any of your gains are off the table," he added.

(Source: Reuters)

• Given the growth of Jamaica’s productive industries in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), Fitch Solutions has revised its 2025 growth forecast from 1.0% to 1.5%. However, while Jamaica’s economic expansion in Q1 exceeded Fitch’s subdued expectations, the agency continues to anticipate lacklustre growth for Jamaica in 2025. Ongoing trade tensions, sluggish tourism activity, and dampened external demand will continue to weigh on the Jamaican economy through year-end.
• With little to suggest that trade tensions will fully abate in the coming months, expectations are for growth in Jamaica to remain modest. However, risks to the outlook are tilted to the upside, with several domestic macro indicators giving reason for optimism.
• Jamaica continues to enjoy low unemployment (3.7% in Q1 2025) and stable inflation, which underpins the view that the Bank of Jamaica will cut its policy rate by 75bps through year-end, stimulating domestic consumption and investment.
• Additionally, remittance flows have remained resilient in 2025, supporting domestic consumption despite a downbeat United States (U.S.) growth outlook and onerous U.S. immigration policies. However, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), approved by the U.S. Senate, introduces a 1% tax on international money transfers sent from the U.S. to recipients abroad. For Jamaica, the U.S. is the largest source market for remittances, accounting for around 70% of all remittances. As such, any slowdown in remittance transfers brought on by the new taxes could threaten Fitch’s growth outlook.
• Furthermore, while total bauxite production contracted slightly in April and May, total production rose 2.7% year-over-year (y-o-y) from January-May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Finally, Jamaica’s growth figures will see positive base effects in Q3 and Q4 as Jamaica continues to recover from Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall on July 3, 2024.
• That being said, weak external demand and a sluggish tourism outlook will continue to act as headwinds for Jamaica’s economy through the end of 2025. While total tourist arrivals increased by 4.1% y-o-y in April 2025, stopover arrivals (excluding cruise passengers) declined by 3.3% from January–April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with total arrivals down 7.9%, negatively impacting tourism-linked industries and Jamaica’s overall economic outlook.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Starting December 18, 2025, American Airlines is set to increase its flight capacity on key Jamaica to U.S. routes, with more flights into Kingston and St. Mary’s Ian Fleming International Airport, making travel more convenient for visitors and residents alike.
• Minister of State in the Ministry of Tourism, Senator the Hon. Delano Seiveright, noted that the expansion of American Airlines’ flight services to Jamaica is expected to result in a big boost for the upcoming winter tourist season.
• The increase will see American Airlines operate two daily flights between St. Mary’s Ian Fleming International Airport and Miami, a significant enhancement from previous schedules. Additionally, the airline will boost its service between Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport and Miami from three to four daily flights, providing travellers with more flexibility and options.
• The expanded services are set to complement American Airlines’ existing summer operations, which currently feature 15 peak daily flights. With the winter schedule, the airline will offer over 20 peak daily departures to Jamaica, connecting the island with seven U.S. destinations, including Miami, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Chicago.
• The increased flights will not only benefit leisure travellers but will also improve logistical convenience for passengers whose final destinations include St. Ann, St. Mary, and Portland. “With flights landing directly into Ian Fleming International Airport in Boscobel, travellers arriving from long-haul flights will enjoy a shorter, more comfortable journey, avoiding the lengthy drive from Montego Bay. This development is expected to bolster tourism in the eastern parishes, providing easier access to attractions and accommodations in those regions,” Mr. Seiveright told JIS News.
• American Airlines’ airline’s decision to grow capacity in Jamaica by approximately 20% year-over-year underscores its commitment to strengthening its presence on the island and supporting Jamaica’s economic growth through tourism.

(Source: JIS)