• US producer prices increased by the most in 4½ years in September amid rising costs for goods and services, indicating that inflation is broadening beyond energy products. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand jumped 1.3% month-over-month, the largest increase since March 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.5% rise in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% increase. On an annual basis, producer prices rose 6.3% in September, the largest increase since December 2022, following a 5.6% advance in August.
• Producer goods prices increased 2.6%, the largest increase since the government started tracking the series in December 2009. A 10.8% surge in energy prices accounted for more than 80% of the increase, with gasoline prices rising 20.3% and diesel fuel prices increasing 21.0%. Meanwhile, wholesale food prices rebounded 1.2% after declining for three consecutive months.
• Services prices rose 0.8% in September, following a 0.2% increase in August, with a 1.4% increase in margins for trade services accounting for nearly half of the rise. Freight transportation costs increased 3.8%, while airfares rose 5.0%, reflecting higher oil prices.
• The report also showed increases in key components used to calculate the Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Economists estimated that core PCE inflation could rise by approximately 0.3%–0.4% month-over-month in September, translating to an annual increase of 3.1%, compared with 3.0% in August.
• The broadening of producer price pressures beyond energy, particularly into transportation and services, increases the risk that businesses will pass higher costs on to consumers. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to contain inflation, although financial markets continued to anticipate the next interest rate increase in December rather than October.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise its Bank Rate to 4.0% in November, for the first time in more than three years, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters. Economists have reversed their earlier expectations that rates would remain unchanged for the rest of 2026, amid persistently high inflation.
• A strong majority, 54 of 63 economists surveyed between October 12 and 14, forecast a 25-basis-point increase at the BoE's next policy meeting. This marks a significant shift from September's survey, when approximately 90% of respondents expected rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026.
• The shift in expectations comes amid persistently high inflation, stronger-than-expected economic performance and rising government bond yields. UK inflation stood at 3.1% and was forecast to rise towards 4.0%, almost double the BoE's 2.0% target. Higher energy prices stemming from the US-Israeli war with Iran have contributed to inflationary pressures, although these have not yet spilled over significantly into broader consumer prices.
• However, there is still no majority among economists for further rate increases beyond November. Nearly half of respondents expected another increase in Q1 2027, while financial markets were fully pricing in four quarter-point rate increases by the end of next year.
• Inflation is forecast to average 3.6% in Q4 2026 and 3.8% in Q1 2027, up from previous estimates of 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the UK economy is projected to grow 1.3% in 2026, revised upward from 1.1%, while growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028 remained unchanged at 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively.
• The shift towards a November rate increase reflects growing concern that elevated energy prices could lead to more persistent inflation. However, the divergence between economists and financial markets over subsequent rate hikes highlights uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy outlook, particularly if higher borrowing costs begin to constrain economic growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• Topline growth and stronger gross margin at Paramount Trading (Jamaica) Limited’s (PTL) were insufficient to offset rising operating costs, resulting in a 22.8% year-over-year (YoY) decline in earnings to J$42.46Mn for the first quarter ended August 31, 2026 (Q1 FY2027). Higher employee and security costs, compounded by a reduction in Other Operating Income, weighed on earnings.
• Renewed focus on the Lubricants division supported a 5.5% increase in revenues to J$469.61Mn. This, alongside an improvement in direct expenses, which grew more slowly at 4.2%, lifted gross profit 7.2% to J$204.59Mn, and improved gross profit margin to 43.6% from 42.9%. However, other operating income fell 40.6% to J$11.99Mn, eroding part of this improvement.
• Investment in additional staff pushed the pace of growth in operating expenses ahead of that of revenues. Administrative expenses rose 20.5% to J$136.92Mn as PTL expanded its workforce to support anticipated business growth and absorbed higher security wages. Selling and distribution expenses also nearly doubled to J$5.46Mn, bringing total operating expenses to J$142.37Mn, up 22.3%. Consequently, operating profit declined 21.6% to J$74.21Mn, with operating margin narrowing to 15.8% from 21.3%.
• Reflecting lower loan principal balances, borrowing costs fell (16.7%), providing some relief but could not reverse the earnings decline. Net profit margin contracted to 9.0% from 12.4%, with earnings per share declining to J$0.028 from J$0.036.
• Restoring earnings will require PTL to generate stronger sales from its expanded workforce while containing further cost increases. The Lubricants division’s momentum and improved gross margin provide a foundation for recovery, but revenue growth must accelerate sufficiently to absorb the higher operating cost base. Lower debt could provide further interest savings, although additional working-capital requirements or changes in borrowing rates could limit that benefit.
• PTL stock has declined 21.4% year-to-date, closing at J$0.99 on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. At its current price, PTL trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.5x, which is below the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 16.76x.

(Sources: Paramount Trading Ltd. & NCBCM Research)

• On October 12, 2026, Seprod Limited (SEP) advised that shareholders approved all three resolutions put to its virtual Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM). The resolutions increase the company's authorised share capital, subdivide each existing ordinary share into five, and authorise the Directors to issue shares from the unissued authorised share capital, including by way of an additional public offer.
• SEP's authorised share capital was increased from 1.00 billion to 1.90 billion ordinary shares through the creation of 900.00 million additional shares. Following the five-to-one subdivision, authorised share capital will become 9.50 billion ordinary shares, while issued share capital will rise to 4.55 billion shares from 910.95 million shares, based on the shares in issue at the date of the notice of meeting. The subdivision does not change any shareholder's proportionate interest in the company.
• The Directors are now authorised to allot and issue up to the whole of the unissued authorised share capital, whether through additional public offers, rights issues, private placements or as consideration for acquisitions. They are also allowed to apply the net proceeds as they see fit, including repaying debt across the group. However, the authority does not itself commit SEP to any share issue, and any additional public offer would require a prospectus registered with the Financial Services Commission as well as Jamaica Stock Exchange approval. The Directors will fix the record date for the subdivision, with the additional shares to be credited to shareholders' accounts in the ordinary course.
• Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Richard Pandohie noted that the group has grown considerably through acquisitions over the last four years, with that growth funded in part by debt. He stated that the approvals give the company the ability to raise equity efficiently when the Board judges the time is right, accelerate the reduction of its borrowings, and redirect the cash currently used to service debt into integrating its acquired businesses and growing the group.
• For shareholders, the stock split is neutral in value terms, as each shareholder will hold five times as many shares at a proportionately lower price. However, the lower price per share could improve the stock's affordability and trading liquidity. The authority to issue new shares is more consequential, as any additional public offer or private placement would dilute existing shareholders who do not participate, particularly if the shares are priced at a discount. That said, using the proceeds to repay debt could lower finance costs and support earnings over time, partially offsetting the dilution. On balance, the impact on shareholders is mixed in the near term, with the final outcome depending on the size, pricing and use of proceeds of any future share issue.
• Year to date, SEP's stock has declined 4.8%, closing at J$79.86 on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. At this price, SEP trades at a P/E of 13.33x, in line with the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 13.33x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• In its Article IV report released on October 8, the IMF urged Guyana to diversify beyond oil by strengthening human capital, expanding employment, addressing labour shortages and improving food security.
• Real GDP grew 19.3% in 2025 and is projected to expand a further 22.3% in 2026, while non-oil GDP is expected to grow 10.2% this year before averaging about 7% over the medium term.
• Inflation, which averaged 3.3% in 2025, is projected to rise to 4.1% in 2026 on higher global energy and food prices.
• Labour shortages were flagged as a key constraint, with oil-driven investment intensifying competition for workers, though the IMF did not quantify the shortfall or name the most affected occupations.
• The outlook remains highly favourable, with rising oil production expected to strengthen Guyana’s fiscal and external positions.
• Key risks include oil price volatility, overheating pressures and climate shocks, with the IMF calling for investment in sea defences, drainage and climate-resilient agriculture.

(Source: IMF)

• US consumer prices rose 0.6% month-over-month in September, accelerating from 0.4% in August, while annual inflation climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%, remaining above the Fed’s 2.0% target. The CPI report released on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, also showed price pressures broadening beyond energy, raising concerns that underlying inflation could be getting sticky.
• A 9.1% surge in gasoline prices accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in the CPI, as the US-Israeli war with Iran continued to drive energy costs higher. Other motor fuels, including diesel, jumped 11.9% in September and were 60.9% higher year-over-year. Food prices were unchanged during the month, while grocery prices edged down 0.1%.
• Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3% in September, above expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual core inflation accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%. Shelter costs rose 0.4%, airline fares increased 1.2% and overall services prices advanced 0.4%. Core goods prices also rose 0.3%, with increases in used vehicles, apparel and toys suggesting some continued tariff pass-through.
• The increase in the cost of living is also placing pressure on household purchasing power. Average hourly earnings declined 0.7% year-over-year in September after falling 0.3% in August, raising questions over whether consumers can sustain the recent pace of spending.
• Following the report, financial markets raised the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting to roughly 37% from about 22% before the data were released. The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase in three years. Most economists still expect the Fed to hold rates this month and raise them again in December.
• The main concern for the Fed is that the inflation shock is no longer confined to energy. The stronger core reading and increases across services and goods suggest that higher fuel costs, tariffs and other supply pressures may be feeding into broader prices. This strengthens the case for keeping monetary policy restrictive and could increase the likelihood of further tightening if underlying inflation remains persistent.

(Source: Reuters)

• Attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz intensified on Wednesday, October 14, with the container ship GFS Pride and a dry bulk carrier both sinking after being hit by projectiles in separate incidents. The escalation supported oil prices, with Brent crude settling 0.35% higher at US$106.06 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate rising 1.01% to US$95.09, its highest level in three weeks.
• Tehran began using new offensive tactics around 10 days ago against vessels it considers to be violating its restrictions on the Strait. The conflict has also widened in Saudi Arabia, where Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis vowed to continue attacking Saudi airports and oil facilities after striking Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran on Tuesday night.
• A recovery in Middle East oil supply was underway in September, with Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovering to more than 81% of pre-war levels, led by stronger Saudi exports. However, the recent escalation in attacks on regional energy infrastructure and tanker traffic threatens further gains, while record tanker rates have increased crude delivery costs and eroded refinery margins.
• On refined products, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global diesel markets could remain tight well into 2027, despite the recently announced US-Russia diesel arrangement. Global diesel exports in September were 700,000 barrels per day lower year-over-year, as a 1.3Mn barrels-per-day loss from Russia and the Middle East was only partly offset by higher supply elsewhere.
• The latest escalation raises the risk that the Middle East conflict affects energy markets through several channels at once: attacks on Hormuz shipping, threats to Saudi oil infrastructure and persistent diesel shortages. Even as Gulf crude flows recover, greater risks to vessels and infrastructure could keep an elevated geopolitical premium in oil and freight costs, prolonging inflationary pressure globally.

(Sources: Reuters & International Energy Agency)

• Despite a 2.9% year-on-year contraction in Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) GDP data suggest that Jamaica's economy continues to rebound from Hurricane Melissa. According to BMI analysts, the economy grew 1.2% q-o-q, on a seasonally adjusted^[1] basis, matching expectations. Therefore, while strong base effects from 2025 and a downward structural shift from Hurricane Melissa will see year-on-year (y-o-y) contractions through Q3 2026, the country’s seasonally adjusted GDP data reveal an economy making progress in its recovery.
• This recovery has been supported by domestic commerce, which recovered ground lost from the hurricane by Q2 2026, with the level returning to its pre-storm mark. Additionally, manufacturing, hospitality, and agriculture have seen consecutive improvements over the previous quarter through H1 2026. While Jamaica's total employment has yet to rebound to pre-hurricane levels, the labour market added jobs in Q2 2026 (+29.4k) for the first time since landfall and the unemployment rate remained low (3.7%). This has supported domestic consumption, a key pillar of the economy. Alongside these labour market gains, remittance flows in 2026 through July have strengthened relative to 2025, supporting incomes, while private credit growth nudged up in Q2 – all positives for domestic demand.
• Looking ahead, recovery momentum is expected to continue to moderate in H2 2026 and into 2027 as external headwinds continue to blow, with growth forecast at -1.0% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Signs of this moderation are already evident, although the domestic trade sector has proven resilient. Sequential growth, or q-o-q growth, slowed markedly in Q2 (from +1.0% in Q1 to +0.4%), consistent with rising inflation eroding real wages, against still-depressed employment, and tempering household spending into mid-2026.
• Most sectors also saw slowing growth in Q2 versus the prior quarter. On a y-o-y basis, mining (-26.1%) and agriculture (-15.2%) continued to underperform, alongside weakness in hospitality (-12.3%), utilities (-4.2%), and transportation (-6.1%). This revealed a broad-based cooling as mining fell, tourism arrivals remained capacity-constrained, and agricultural output stayed below pre-hurricane levels amid productivity challenges, likely due to the areas hardest hit by Hurricane Melissa, with El Niño-related dry conditions adding further pressure.
• Meanwhile, although remittances remain above 2025 levels year-to-date, the post-hurricane surge has faded and growth is now slowing. With global prices rising, the US growth outlook moderating, and US immigration enforcement continuing at pace alongside changes in remittance policy, we see scope for these flows to ease further, a headwind to consumption.
•  Adding to these external pressures, BMI's Global team now expects the US-Iran conflict to extend into next year, with a preliminary deal anticipated in Q1 2027 and Brent crude forecast to average US$107/barrel in Q4 2026 and US$112/barrel in Q1 2027. As a net energy importer, Jamaica is particularly exposed to elevated oil prices, which will prolong inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the Bank of Jamaica raised its policy rate by 50bps in September 2026, with additional hikes expected through year-end, which will weigh on consumption and investment, while a strong El Niño continues to affect agriculture and mining.
• Despite these headwinds, growth is slated to pick up in 2027, as ongoing recovery efforts and increased government fiscal stimulus coincide with the restoration of hotel capacity, the easing of Melissa-related challenges in mining and agriculture and rising electricity consumption as grid capacity is restored. Nevertheless, risks remain tilted to the downside, with longer-than-expected tensions in the Middle East likely to weigh on domestic demand and global demand for Jamaican tourism and exports, while storm activity in the Caribbean remains an ongoing threat.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

^[1] Seasonal adjustment is applied to time series data to decompose the underlying trends, business cycle and short-run movements in the series. It is used to identify and adjust for the different components of the time series. Once the components of the series have been identified, the seasonal adjustment removes the impact of the seasonal and calendar components, thus better displaying the underlying trend.

• On October 8, 2026, Honey Bun (1982) Limited (HONBUN) officially opened its new manufacturing facility at the MJS Industrial and Technology Park in Spanish Town, St. Catherine. The 60,000-square-foot facility represents an investment of more than J$1.00Bn and serves as the home of the company's 'Shorty Bread' product line, while its other products continue to be manufactured at its Retirement Crescent location in Kingston.
• The Jamaica Manufacturers and Exporters Association (JMEA) hosted a tour of the facility, attended by Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator Aubyn Hill. He commended the company's investment in solar technology to power its operations, noting that it helps to reduce the country's dependence on expensive imported fossil fuels.
• Chief Executive Officer Daniel Chong noted that the company now operates production lines across two facilities, and that relocating the bread production line to Spanish Town has enabled it to expand its production capacity. He described the facility as a significant investment in expanding the company's manufacturing capacity and creating room for future opportunities. Honey Bun employs nearly 1,000 people across its operations.
• The new facility positions Honey Bun to meet higher demand for its Shorty Bread line and frees up space at its Kingston location for other product lines and future expansion. Solar-powered operations could also improve cost efficiency by reducing reliance on grid electricity and limiting exposure to fuel-driven increases in energy cost, potentially supporting profit margins. Together, these investments could support revenue growth and improved profitability over time, although the benefits will depend on demand keeping pace with the additional capacity and outweighing higher operating and depreciation costs
• HONBUN’s recent share price rally proved short-lived. Between September 30 and October 8, 2026, the stock climbed to J$7.67, approaching its 52-week high of J$7.88, before retreating to J$5.96 on October 12. It subsequently recovered to J$6.24 on Tuesday, October 13, down 12.0% year to date. At this closing price, HONBUN trades at a P/E of 156.0x, substantially above the Junior Market manufacturing sector average of 20.3x.

(Sources: JIS, NCBCM Research)

• The International Monetary Fund trimmed its growth forecasts for Latin America ‌and the Caribbean for this year and next and said most of the region was getting little lift from the artificial intelligence boom that has helped other economies absorb the energy shock from the Middle East war.
• In its World Economic Outlook, released early on Tuesday, the Fund projected regional ​growth of 2.3% this year. That is down from 2.5% in 2025 and from its July forecast of 2.4% ​for 2026. The IMF cut its 2027 forecast to 2.5% from 2.7%.
• The regional downgrades come even ⁠as the Fund nudged up its world growth forecast for this year to 3.1% from July's 3.0%, crediting rerouted energy supplies and ​AI-driven investment for the resilience of what it calls a split global economy.
• The Middle East war has turned energy into a global inflation ​shock, with Brent crude about 45% above its prewar level. Higher fuel and power costs are squeezing households and businesses, while fears of persistent inflation have helped push global borrowing costs to multidecade highs. In Latin America, the IMF said the energy shock's effect depends on whether gains for commodity exporters outweigh losses ​for energy importers and on how credible central banks' inflation targets are, adding that "there is little offset from the technology upturn in ​most countries."
• Of the three Latin American economies the IMF listed separately in its July World Economic Outlook update, Argentina took the deepest cut in its ‌output ⁠ The Fund now expects Argentine growth to slow to 2.1% this year from 4.5% in 2025, well below the 3.5% it forecast in July, and it lowered its 2027 forecast to 3.5% from 4.0%. The report shows inflation is forecast to fall to 32.5% this year from 41.9% in 2025.
• The IMF cut Brazil’s growth forecast to 2.2% for 2026 and raised Mexico’s to 1.5%. It expects Chile’s growth to slow to 0.6%, Bolivia’s economy to shrink 3.0% and Venezuela’s inflation to climb to 467.9%. It warned that risks remain tilted to the downside from market turmoil.

(Source: Reuters)