• U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods.
• Accounts from manufacturers in the Institute for Supply Management survey on Monday painted a dire picture of the factory sector, which ironically President Donald Trump's sweeping duties are intended to stimulate. Economists have long argued it was impossible to restore manufacturing to its former glory because of structural issues, including worker shortages.
• Some makers of computer and electronic products agreed, and noted last month that "the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S." The ISM added to the gloom from other advanced nations' factory surveys.
• "Tariffs have been roiling the sector for much of this year," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. "The comments from individual respondents suggest that firms are exhausted by all of the back and forth on tariffs since the beginning of April and are suffering mightily as their customers have pulled back significantly."
• The ISM said its manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 last month from 49.1 in September. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy. The PMI remained above 42.3, a level that the ISM said over time was consistent with an expansion of the overall economy.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI rising to 49.5. Six industries, including primary metals, transportation equipment and fabricated metal products, reported growth. Among the 12 industries that contracted were textile mills, wood and chemical products, as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components, machinery, and computer and electronic products.
• Others said the Trump administration's trade war had hurt agricultural exports and impacted farmers' finances and their ability to buy new equipment.

(Source: Reuters)

• A rare 10-2 policy vote at the October 28–29 meeting to cut rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%–4.00% range revealed a deep split among U.S. Fed officials, with some pushing for tighter policy and others for looser conditions.
• Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged “strongly differing views” ahead of the December 9–10 meeting.
• Lisa Cook¹, a member of the Board of the Federal Reserve, warned that keeping rates too high could sharply weaken the labour market while lowering them too much could risk unanchoring inflation expectations. This pointed to the difficulty of achieving the Fed’s dual mandate of striking a balance between inflation and employment levels and emphasised the need for close monitoring of both inflation and employment data.
• Fed Governor Stephen Miran restated his case for deeper half-point rate cuts, arguing that strong stock and credit markets don’t necessarily signal loose policy and that maintaining high rates risks a downturn. He views inflation as less threatening than his peers.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, while supporting the last rate cut, said he remains undecided for December and is concerned about inflation remaining above target; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the October cut as “insurance”, but said further action will depend on signs of labour market deterioration.
• Both Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack opposed the October cut. Shmid argued that inflation should remain the priority and that high equity prices suggest policy is not restrictive. Similarly, Hammack echoed that sentiment, saying monetary policy is “barely restrictive, if at all,” underscoring the sharp internal divide within the Fed.

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¹ Cook is locked in a legal battle with President Trump on mortgage fraud allegations.

(Source: Reuters)

• Hurricane Melissa, the most powerful Atlantic hurricane of the year, made landfall this week as a Category 5 storm in Jamaica. The strength of the storm means it will likely trigger a full payout from a catastrophe bond designed to provide funds to the island in the event of catastrophic weather events.
• The US$150.0Mn catastrophe bond, structured by Aon and the first of its kind in the Caribbean region, is intended to help rebuild after natural disasters by providing parametric coverage against losses from named storms. The policy took effect this year and lasts through 2027.
• To trigger the full payment, the storm has to meet a particular strength criteria. The central pressure of the storm must be at or below 900 millibars as its makes landfall and crosses the island nation. Early data from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Melissa’s pressure stayed below 900 millibars in several areas. Those readings are in the process of being verified by an independent calculation agent.
• “While the final numbers are still being verified, the early signs suggest the transaction is doing what it was designed to do: get critical funds to the country quickly after a major disaster,” Chris Lefferdink, Aon’s head of insurance-linked securities for North America, said in a statement.
• The review process typically takes 2 to 3 weeks, and the earliest possible payout to Jamaica could come in approximately 1 month, according to a spokesperson from Aon. Previous parametric transactions payouts have taken 3 months or more, but for this event Aon used an innovative data source to enable faster payments.
• The catastrophe bond was placed using the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (World Bank) “capital at risk” program, which is used to transfer the risks associated with natural catastrophes to the capital markets, allowing the country to access funds quickly after a major event.

(Source: CNBC)

• In the wake of Hurricane Melissa, Minister of Tourism Hon. Edmund Bartlett set a firm target for Jamaica’s tourism industry to be fully back in operation by December 15, 2025. To achieve this, the Ministry has activated a Hurricane Melissa Recovery Task Force and a companion Tourism Resilience Coordination Committee (“Tourism Cares”) to synchronise public and private sector action.
• Minister Bartlett stated that recovery cannot be left to chance, emphasising that marketing, communications, infrastructure repairs, aid, logistics and all enabling support will be aligned behind one objective, full industry operation by December 15. Progress will be tracked through the Ministry of Tourism with regular public updates for transparency and planning confidence.
• The Recovery Task Force is chaired by John Byles, Executive Deputy Chairman of Chukka Caribbean Adventures, with Minister Bartlett serving as Chairman Emeritus. Members include Hon. Tova Hamilton, Professor Lloyd Waller, Jennifer Griffith, Adam Stewart, Ian Dear, Donovan White, Jessica Shannon, Christopher Jarrett, Wayne Cummings, Wade Mars, Dr. Carey Wallace, Tanikie McClarthy Allen and Fiona Fennell.
• The Task Force will lead the sector’s operational restart, focusing on rapid assessments, product rehabilitation, and service readiness across resorts, attractions, airports, and ports, while “Tourism Cares” will organize and route financial and in-kind assistance through supportjamaica.gov.jm to workers, MSMEs, and communities. Both committees will coordinate with the Global Tourism Resilience and Crisis Management Centre (GTRCMC) to integrate lessons from Jamaica’s post-COVID-19 recovery, reinforcing the industry’s resilience and commitment to recovery through empathy, compassion, and innovation.

(Source: JIS)

• Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T) support for and cooperation with the United States (US) military operations in the Caribbean is straining relations with Caracas and raising the risk it could be drawn into a US–Venezuela conflict. After the USS Gravely docked in Port of Spain on October 26, 2025, for joint training with the TTDF, Venezuela’s foreign minister accused T&T of renouncing its sovereignty, “turning its territory into a US aircraft carrier,” and warned of potential “false flag” provocations.
• As US–Venezuela tensions rise, speculation about regime change grows, and T&T–US military cooperation deepens, Fitch maintains that continued US–T&T cooperation will increase the risk of retaliatory measures by the Maduro regime against T&T in the event of a US–Venezuela war. The USS Gravely’s visit follows growing speculation about US-backed regime change and a recent US Embassy advisory warning of a “heightened state of alert” at US facilities in T&T.
• Ongoing tensions in the region – and continued uncertainty on oil and gas development – raise above-ground risks for investors and headwinds to near-term investment. T&T’s relationship with both the US and Venezuela remains crucial, especially for its energy sector, which has been facing insufficient natural gas production to provide feedstock gas for its petrochemical and LNG industries.
• In April 2025, the US revoked two key licences that permitted T&T to collaborate with Venezuela on offshore natural gas projects – specifically the Dragon and Cocuina–Manakin fields – to put pressure on Maduro. However, this decision was reversed on October 17, 2025, as the US reissued an updated OFAC licence for the Dragon field – a major win for T&T following its support for US operations in the Caribbean.
• Despite the potential economic upside that would come from increased gas production from the Dragon gas field, the possibility of military confrontation near T&T creates strong headwinds for inbound investment. In response, Venezuela has moved to suspend all energy cooperation. Despite renewed US authorisation for the Dragon gas field development, Venezuela’s suspension of its energy cooperation agreement with T&T could derail the important project, with drilling now cancelled.
• However, some upside exists. Should T&T–US cooperation help counter the persistent flow of drugs and weapons into the country, there is the possibility of reduced domestic crime, which could help improve Trinidad and Tobago’s business and investment climate, all things equal.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in the third quarter from the previous three-month period, preliminary data showed on Thursday, October 30, 2025, marking its first year-on-year quarterly decline since 2021 and raising prospects that its central bank will press ahead with a fresh interest rate cut next week.
• Impacted mainly by a slowdown in industrial activity, Latin America's second-largest economy broke two consecutive quarters of gross domestic product growth, though data from the national statistics agency INEGI was in line with forecasts from economists polled by Reuters.
• Secondary or manufacturing activities were down 1.5% on a sequential basis, the data showed, offsetting growth of 3.2% in the economy's primary sector, which includes farming, fishing and mining. Services, meanwhile, expanded 0.1%. The data was released ahead of the Bank of Mexico's November 6 monetary policy decision. Policymakers last month cut borrowing costs to their lowest level since May 2022 and indicated they would consider further easing.
• Concerns over global trade tensions and sluggish economic growth have weighed on recent decisions by the central bank. Kimberley Sperrfechter, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the GDP contraction and a dip in inflation in early October make it likely the central bank will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% next week. "With the economy likely to remain relatively weak and inflation set to remain within the target range, we think that Banxico will cut its policy rate to a below-consensus 6.25% by the end of next year," she added.
• Compared with the same period a year earlier, the Mexican economy shrank 0.2% in the third quarter - the first year-on-year contraction since early 2021, when global economic activity was still reeling from the pandemic. Economists at Banamex said they expect a moderate economic recovery in the coming quarters but warned about "high uncertainty due to both external and internal factors." They forecast GDP to grow 0.4% this year and 1.5% in 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• China's latest trade truce with the United States removes one big deterrent for foreign investors who've been circumspect all year about investing in a stock market that's outrun most other major ones with its strongest annual run since 2019. Foreign money managers have so far been both measured and selective participants in a rally that has pushed Chinese stocks to multi-year highs, fearful of pressures from deflation, weak consumption in the world's second-largest economy, and trade tensions.
• Thursday's deal between China and U.S. President Donald Trump removes one source of worry, to an extent. The year-long truce is the longest the two feuding sides have had in a fractious relationship, and it reduces import tariffs on China, removes some controls on Chinese rare earths exports, and allows Chinese firms to receive some U.S. technology. Beyond those encouraging headlines, the specifics of the deal left markets unimpressed and analysts pointing to the breakthrough and commitment to cooperation as the best part of the truce.
• "I don't think this trade deal changes anything dramatically, but it helps move the needle on encouraging offshore investment in China," said Kristina Hooper, New York-based chief market strategist at the Man Group.
• Boosted by policy measures and Chinese artificial intelligence forays, its blue-chip stock index is up by a fifth this year, while the more accessible Hong Kong Hang Seng index is one of the world's top performers this year, with 31% gains, bigger than Nasdaq's 3%. But foreign money has played it safe, staying in sectors around AI and China's self-sufficiency initiatives while avoiding broad exposure.
• Relative to its economic might, which is a fifth of world GDP, China is underowned. Data from financial services firm Morningstar showed large global funds, on average, had a 1.43% exposure to China at the end of September.

(Source: Reuters)

• The euro zone economy grew a touch more quickly than expected in the third quarter, lifted by buoyant growth in France and Spain that more than offset faltering exports and persistent struggles in Germany's oversized industrial sector.
• The economy of the 20 nations sharing the euro expanded by 0.2% in July to September, Eurostat data showed, beating expectations for a 0.1% increase in a Reuters poll and confirming the bloc's resilience despite stagnation in Germany and Italy. On an annualised basis, the economy grew by 1.3%, Thursday's data showed, ahead of expectations for 1.2% and a level economists consider to be around its natural rate of growth without stimulus.
• "The mood about the economy seems decently optimistic at the moment, despite ample downside risks clearly weighing on the outlook," ING economist Bert Colijn said. "We do expect a gradual acceleration of growth over the coming year but remain cautious about marking this as the start of a growth spurt." Spain remained the best performer among the bloc's largest economies, growing 0.6% in the quarter, in line with forecasts, while France expanded by 0.5%, beating expectations for 0.2%. Germany and Italy both stagnated.
• Thursday's figures ease pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates any further in the near term as they confirm the central bank's longstanding view that the economy is proving resilient to this year's unusual spike in uncertainty. Backing the resilience narrative, unemployment held at a near-record low of 6.3% in September, according to separate Eurostat data.
• Germany, which has broadly stagnated for the past three years as its industry lost competitiveness, remains the bloc's problem child, but a massive increase in government spending is likely to prop up growth. While trade tensions, lingering uncertainty, and Chinese dumping of surplus goods could still weigh on growth in the months ahead, economists remain relatively upbeat about the outlook. Further, ECB projections suggest the third quarter may have been the worst for some time.
• Growth could pick up as past interest rate cuts work their way through the economy, households sit on ample savings, Germany boosts spending, uncertainty over tariffs eases, and inventories continue to run low. Business activity, as measured by a key Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey, is already showing a pick-up, while sentiment in Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, is improving and businesses are becoming more optimistic, partly due to lower tariff uncertainty. But any growth pick-up is likely to be modest as the rigid structure of the euro zone economy limits activity, say economists, who predict growth in the 1.2% to 1.5% range for years to come.

(Source: Reuters)

• Educational technology firm EduFocal Limited announced a significant change to its external audit team. The company confirmed that Baker Tilly Strachan Lafayette, which had served as external auditors since 2021, has voluntarily withdrawn its services effective Tuesday, September 23, 2025.
• To ensure continuous financial oversight, EduFocal's Board of Directors filled the vacancy, appointing Garcia Campbell & Associates as the Company’s new auditors. This was executed under the authority of Article 189 of the company's recently adopted Articles of Incorporation, which allows the Board to fill a casual vacancy until the next Annual General Meeting.
• EduFocal's shares were suspended from trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) on June 2, 2025, for the continued failure to file its 2024 Audited Financial Statements, which remain outstanding as of October, having been originally due on March 1, 2025
• The first half of the year saw significant corporate shifts, including the resignation of the long-standing Chairman and the abolition of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) role as part of a move toward a "leaner and more agile" organisational structure.
• With Audited Financials still outstanding, the company’s shares have remained suspended since June 02, 2025, where it closed at $0.22 per share.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Fitch Solutions forecasts that Jamaica's current account will remain in surplus in the near and medium term, albeit declining from 2.0% of GDP in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026. The surplus is expected to be supported primarily by a solid tourism sector outlook and stable remittance inflows.
• While year-to-date stopover arrivals have fallen by 2.9%, Q2 2025 saw a modest rebound in total arrivals and Q3 2025 is showing continued strength. Furthermore, visitor spending rose 2.7% y-o-y in Q1 2025, lifting services exports by 2.2%. Meanwhile, remittances increased by 3.7% y-o-y from January to June 2025, which is expected to continue to expand broadly in line with US nominal GDP growth.
• However, domestic demand strength will see Jamaica’s current account surplus narrow in the near and medium terms, underpinned by domestic macroeconomic indicators. Despite expected increases in bauxite/alumina production and favourable energy price moves, the merchandise trade deficit is expected to widen due to increased domestic demand for imports. Additionally, recovery and strength in Jamaica’s construction and mining sectors will push up capital goods imports in 2026. Finally, after years of successful fiscal consolidation, Jamaica’s government is expected to increase public investment and spending in the near and medium term, supporting domestic demand and narrowing the current account surplus further.
• The country's external position poses limited risk to macroeconomic stability, demonstrated by a significant decline in overall external debt to 60.1% of GDP in Q1 2025 (from 64.9% a year prior) and a falling share of short-term debt. The Bank of Jamaica's foreign reserves are robust and growing, reaching US$6.2Bn in September 2025, which covers an estimated 7.4 months of imports, reflecting a stronger buffer relative to the 6-month buffer in the prior year
• The net international investment position¹ (NIIP) continues to improve, easing from a high of −155% of GDP in 2019 to −100.8% in 2025. Notably, foreign liabilities are shifting toward more stable direct investment, though downside risks remain from potential worsening global economic conditions, especially in the US – Jamaica’s key trading partner. These potential worsening conditions could result in lower-than-expected remittance flows and declining tourism receipts in Q4 2025 and 2026, thereby narrowing Jamaica’s current account surplus more substantially than expected.

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¹The Net International Investment Position (NIIP) is a financial metric that represents the difference between a country's external financial assets and its external financial liabilities at a specific point in time.

(Source: Fitch Solution)