• Farmers in the U.S. and Canada, already worried about another year of low profits or losses, now could have spring planting disrupted as they struggle to find fertiliser. Prices for any available supplies have spiked more than a third since the war in Iran paralysed global trade.
• The U.S., which in some years imports half of its urea fertiliser, is about 25% short of the usual supplies that farmers buy for spring planting, according to The Fertiliser Institute, which represents the U.S. fertiliser supply chain. Supplies could grow still scarcer if fertiliser destined for the U.S. gets rerouted to other places willing to pay more for it, an analyst said.
• Josh Linville, a fertiliser market analyst at StoneX, said the price offered in New Orleans, the port area where most offshore U.S. imports enter, and prices are set, is as much as $119 less per metric ton than global prices.
• Late Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department said it was taking immediate steps to allow for more imports of Venezuelan fertiliser "to support our great American farmers. “Since removing Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in a military raid in January, the Trump administration has been supporting U.S.-focused Venezuelan oil exports. Friday's announcement also includes further measures that Treasury says will allow Venezuela's energy sector to recover from years of decline.
• Venezuela has been a significant but not dominant producer of nitrogen fertilisers like urea. However, recent years have seen a massive decline in production, similar to its stumbling crude oil industry. Increasing fertiliser production in Venezuela's stressed economy and political situation will be a challenge requiring billions of dollars, analysts told Reuters. It will not be a quick fix. Farmers who do significant springtime fertiliser application and have not already purchased their supplies are finding retail centres empty or stocked with supplies sold at such a premium that it's unaffordable.
• Furthermore, the Iran war has cut off critical nitrogen fertiliser supplies from the Gulf to the world's farmers. More than 30% of the world's nitrogen fertiliser exports, as well as fertiliser components like sulphur, pass through the now effectively closed Strait of Hormuz. Unlike China, most countries do not hold strategic reserves of fertiliser, and much of the U.S. fertiliser dealer system does not hold stocks, leaving it vulnerable to sudden supply shortages.
• The length of time that the Strait of Hormuz is closed is critical. Fertiliser loaded onto ships in the Gulf can take weeks to reach markets like the U.S., and then must be transferred to river barges, trucks or trains to reach farmland. Most fertiliser needs to be applied before the crop starts growing, so any supplies arriving too late cannot be used for the 2026 crop.
• On Friday, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration is "looking at every potential avenue" to control fertiliser costs and is having discussions with lawmakers about more aid for farmers. The Trump administration is in the process of distributing $12 billion in aid to U.S. farmers. Farmer groups have urged Congress to approve additional aid.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold its key interest rate steady at the range between 3.50%-3.75% as policymakers navigate their way through higher-than-expected inflation readings, mixed signs on the labour market, and a war.
• It projected higher inflation, steady unemployment and only a single reduction in borrowing costs this year as officials took stock ‌of economic risks from the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran. "In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy," said Fed chief Powell.
• New projections showed the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate would fall by just a quarter of a percentage point by the end of this year, with no hint of the timing. That view was unchanged from previous projections ​and remains out of step with Trump's demand for a sharp drop in borrowing costs.
• The new rate and economic projections showed the Fed, for now, largely looking through the oil shock, with policymakers still expecting to lower rates this year and anticipating inflation to be 2.2% by the end of 2027, near the central ​bank's 2% target. Notably, no policymakers saw ​rates needing to move higher ⁠by the end of this year, though one official anticipated a rate increase in 2027.
• Fed ​Governor Stephen Miran continued his string of dissents, voting against the decision to maintain the policy rate in favour of a rate cut.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica Broilers Group Limited (JBG) hatched a $2.22Bn loss for the quarter ended January 31, 2026 (Q3 2026), as disruptions from Hurricane Melissa and headwinds in the U.S. weighed on revenues.
• Q3 revenues declined 6.3% year-over-year (YoY) to $23.34Bn, with Melissa creating temporary disruptions across its Jamaica Operations and the U.S. segment continuing to face structural headwinds from weak market selling prices for US poultry.
• Despite the top-line pressure, gross profit more than doubled to $3.18Bn (+131.6%) from $1.37Bn in Q3 2024. This reflected a 14.4% decline in cost of sales to $20.16Bn, as cost rationalisation efforts gained traction at the production level.
• Despite the doubling of gross profits, administrative expenses totalling $2.75Bn, reflecting a spike in distribution costs (+45.6%) and finance costs (+28.5%) that pressured its bottom line. Nevertheless, compared to the $4.58Bn loss in Q3 2025, the $2.22Bn loss was a 51.6% improvement.
• With Melissa and U.S. headwinds broiling Q3 earnings, the relative strength of Q1 and Q2 proved decisive for its nine-month results (9M 2026). 9M losses narrowed from $3.54Bn for 2025 to $999.67 Mn, suggesting that Q3's drag hadn’t derailed the group's broader recovery narrative.
• Management highlighted that the recovery of the group’s Jamaica Operations post-Melissa, progressed ahead of schedule, underscoring the resilience of the domestic business. As for the U.S. Operations, management acknowledged the segment's underperformance, but noted that deliberate corrective measures were underway. This includes leadership restructuring, the strengthening of financial controls, engagement of an independent advisory firm, a transition to new auditors with specialised sector experience, and the securing of a J$15.1Bn financial rescue package to restore liquidity.
• JBG's stock price has decreased by 6.5% since the start of the year to close at $16.08 on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

(Sources: Jamaica Broilers Group Ltd. Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Main Event Entertainment Group Limited (MEEG) had the curtain fall hard on earnings for its first quarter ended January 31, 2026 (Q1 2026). Hurricane Melissa, which wreaked havoc on the company's usually busy Christmas entertainment calendar and washed out revenues, was blamed for the $65.56Mn Q1 net loss.
• Q1 revenues collapsed to $211.48Mn (-63.9%), due to widespread event cancellations across the Christmas period. Melissa rippled through Jamaica's entertainment and promotions industry at the worst possible time, stripping out the lion's share of bookings and production activity that the company would ordinarily rely on to set the tone for the financial year.
• Similar to revenues, gross profits declined by 59.4% to $122.49Mn. This was supported by a 68.6% fall in direct costs to $88.98Mn. With direct costs shrinking faster than revenues, gross margins improved to 57.9% from 51.6%. Other operating income more than doubled to $10.39Mn (+128.9%), providing a modest but welcome offset.
• Faced with a challenging operating environment, management kept operating expenses (OPEX) relatively flat at $209.73Mn (-4.1%). Administrative and general expenses fell 3.1% to $167.19Mn, while the company maintained its full staff complement throughout the quarter. Depreciation and amortisation also fell 16.0% to $30.07Mn year-over-year, while impairment losses on trade receivables rose 62.0% to $8.43Mn, reflecting growing credit risks in a more economically stressed environment. The combination of lower gross profits and flat OPEX produced an operating loss of $76.85Mn. This compares to an operating profit of $87.48Mn in the prior year quarter, a swing of over $164Mn.
• Lastly, MEEG’s finance costs were down 21.3% to $2.57Mn as its Sagicor Bank loan facility winds down. It also benefited from a deferred tax credit of $13.86Mn. Nonetheless, these only partially softened the blow at the bottom line.
• Looking ahead, management remains optimistic about a recovery, pointing to early signs of a rebound in entertainment industry activity at the start of the 2026 calendar year. The company is focused on strengthening operational efficiency, managing direct production costs, and expanding strategic collaborations with sponsors and corporate partners. While macroeconomic and weather-related risks remain on the radar, MEEG can recapture momentum in Jamaica's vibrant and resilient entertainment sector.
• MEEG's stock price has decreased by 10.9% since the start of the year to close at $6.86 on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

(Sources: Main Event Entertainment Group Limited Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• The government of Barbados is set to cover half of the expected increase in electricity fuel charges over the next three months to shield Barbadians from soaring global oil prices linked to the conflict involving the United States (U.S.), Israel and Iran, said Finance Minister Ryan Straughn.
• Without state intervention, the average household electricity bill in April would be about $32 higher than in March, he said. “The government is absorbing half of that difference, sixteen dollars, so that Barbadians do not feel the full impact of rising energy prices,” Straughn told the House of Assembly. The subsidy, which takes effect on April 1, is expected to cost the treasury $7.9Mn over three months and will complement another measure already implemented by the government to stabilise electricity generation costs.
• Previously, the government had instructed the Barbados National Energy Company Limited (BNECL) to hedge fuel purchases in the futures market, locking in the price of heavy fuel oil, the main fuel used to generate electricity, at US$92 per barrel (/b) for the next three months. The hedge is already generating savings, with benchmark Brent crude currently trading near US$106/b, according to Straughn. The hedge covers 240,000 barrels over three months, delivering estimated savings of about US$1Mn compared with current prices.
• The government is also acting to cushion motorists from the surge in global oil prices. The Minister announced that Value-Added Tax (VAT) on gasoline would remain capped at 47 cents per litre and diesel at 37 cents per litre until March 31, 2027, if global prices continued rising. Straughn also announced that the excise tax on gasoline will be reduced from 99.39 cents to 89.39 cents per litre for three months, while the diesel excise will fall from 44.03 cents to 34.03 cents per litre.
• Government projections show that gasoline prices will remain below $4 per litre unless global oil prices exceed US$110/b, though the finance minister warned that the situation remains highly uncertain. “Regrettably, it is almost at US$106 today for Brent crude,” he noted, adding that authorities are monitoring the market closely and will activate further measures if prices rise significantly.
• Looking ahead, the government is pledging to work with Light & Power to introduce an off-peak electricity tariff for households, allowing consumers to benefit from lower rates during periods of reduced demand. The system, already used by large manufacturers, would help balance electricity demand, reduce reliance on expensive peak-period power plants and ultimately lower energy costs for consumers.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Global ​airlines sounded the alarm over soaring jet fuel prices triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, warning of hundreds of ‌millions of extra costs, higher fares and cuts to some routes.
• Delta Air Lines Chief Executive Ed Bastian said the dramatic run-up in jet fuel prices had increased the airline's costs by as much as $400 million in March alone. The industry is moving quickly to pass on higher expenses through fare hikes, he told a J.P. Morgan industrials conference.
• The war, now in its third ​week, has thrown global aviation into turmoil, with flights cancelled, rescheduled or rerouted as most Middle East airspace remains closed amid fears of missile and ​drone attacks.
• Jet fuel prices have emerged as a major challenge, pushing up operating costs, with European prices doubling and Asian prices up almost 80% since the start of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. Fuel is the industry's second-largest expense after labour, typically accounting for a fifth to a quarter of operating costs. U.S. airlines ​largely stopped hedging fuel in the past two decades, and Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) said last year it had not hedged any of its fuel consumption for the ​following 12 months.
• The United Arab Emirates briefly closed its airspace on Tuesday in response to incoming missile and drone threats from Iran, the second straight day of disruption after a drone caused a fire near Dubai airport on Monday
• The mounting cost warnings show ⁠how the shockwaves from the conflict are spreading far beyond the Middle East as airlines navigate their biggest crisis since the COVID pandemic. Delta's Bastian said the carrier is well-positioned to recover fuel costs and can adjust ​capacity if elevated prices persist. Still, airlines will need to tread carefully with fare hikes at a time ​of fragile consumer confidence.

 (Source: Reuters)

• With the conflict in the Gulf well into its third week, a difficult reality is setting in across Europe: Even if a cease-fire were agreed today, the continent is likely already heading toward an energy crisis.
• The ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran, along with Tehran’s retaliation across the Gulf, have produced one of the most severe disruptions to global energy markets in decades. At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, the most critical chokepoint in the global energy trade. Before the current conflict, roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply transited the strait each day. While the effective closure of the strait has sent shockwaves through global oil markets, Europe’s immediate vulnerability lies elsewhere: liquefied natural gas (LNG). Approximately 20% of global LNG trade passed through the strait before the current conflict, much of it originating in Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter. There is no viable alternative export route for this LNG.
• For Europe, the timing could scarcely be worse. Europe is entering a critical period when underground gas storage must be replenished ahead of winter. Yet European countries are beginning this process in one of the weakest positions in years. Refilling these reserves now depends heavily on LNG imports, following Europe’s rapid shift away from Russian pipeline gas following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
• According to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory database, European storage levels are currently below 30%, a five-year low. A colder-than-average winter, combined with increased gas burn in the power sector, pushed European gas demand up nearly 7% since the start of the year. At the same time, pipeline year-over-year exports from the European Union (EU) to Ukraine surged more than tenfold, further accelerating withdrawals.
• Further squeezing the LNG market is the March 2 Iranian drone strike on QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan facilities, which forced an immediate shutdown of production. Two days later, the company declared force majeure, meaning QatarEnergies is temporarily suspended from its contractual commitments to deliver LNG to customers.
• While Europe successfully outbid Asia for LNG in 2022, the 2026 landscape has shifted. Major East Asian economies (China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are now aggressively competing for limited global supply, particularly following the loss of Qatari volumes, leaving Europe vulnerable to being outbid on cost.
• Despite efforts to move away from Russian energy, Europe has largely traded one dependency for another by relying heavily on US LNG. With US facilities operating at near capacity and domestic European production (like German nuclear) significantly reduced, the continent lacks a short-term "release valve" for price shocks.
• The crisis is fracturing European unity. While leaders like Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Macron remain firm on Russian sanctions, others, such as Belgium’s Bart De Wever, are calling for a normalisation of energy relations with Moscow. This internal pressure grows as the EU approaches a 2027 deadline to fully phase out Russian gas.

(Source: Atlantic Council of the United States)

• The Bank of Japan is likely to keep interest rates steady on ​Thursday but signal its resolve to sustain its rate-hike bias, as the weak yen and surging oil prices from the Iran ‌war heighten inflationary pressure for an import-reliant economy. Global oil prices surged as much as around 70% after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, putting central banks on alert to inflationary risks by reviving memories of the cost-of-living crisis during the pandemic.
• The BOJ, too, has been torn between the need to guard against the chance of recession from high fuel costs and that of being too late in addressing the risk of too-high inflation. Given a lack of clarity on the impact of the war, the BOJ is set to maintain short-term interest rates at 0.75% and make no ⁠major changes to its forecast of a moderate economic recovery at a two-day policy meeting ending on Thursday.
• Investors will focus on Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting briefing for clues on the next rate-hike timing, and how he frames the balance between the need to support a shock-hit economy and avoid being behind the curve on inflation.
• The bigger test will come at the BOJ's subsequent meeting in April when the board conducts a quarterly review of its projections and takes a more thorough look at whether its economic scenario backing more rate hikes remains valid. By then, the BOJ will have more information on how the war is affecting ‌the economy ⁠, such as its quarterly "tankan" business survey due on April 1, and findings on how firms are coping with the hit from its regional branch managers' meeting on April 6.
• If the war persists and crude prices remain elevated, the BOJ may be forced to overhaul its scenario that solid economic and wage growth will keep inflation durably around its target - a prerequisite for further rate hikes. But delaying rate hikes for too long could prove costly, particularly for Japan as its real interest rate remains deeply negative, a point the BOJ ⁠itself had stressed as a key reason to steadily push up borrowing costs.
• If rising import costs heighten inflation expectations, that will push real interest rates deeper into negative territory and blunt the impact of past rate hikes, heightening the risk of the BOJ being too late in addressing price pressures, analysts say. Despite downside risks to growth from the conflict and ⁠political pressure for the BOJ to take rate hikes slowly, markets still see roughly a 70% chance of a rate hike in April. The benchmark Japanese government bond (JGB) yield touched a one-month high on Monday as the Middle East crisis fuelled expectations of higher inflation and potential policy tightening by the BOJ.

(Source: Reuters)

• Consumer prices continued to ease in February with the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling by 0.9%, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This marks a second consecutive monthly decline, following the supply-side shock caused by Hurricane Melissa.
• With the faster than expected rebound in supplies of key agricultural produce, the 'Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages' division, which fell by 2.5%, continued to be the main contributor to the decline. An 11.3% fall in the index for the class, 'Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses' was the primary driver, attributable to increased supply of agricultural produce, including cabbage, carrot, cucumber, sweet pepper, and tomato on the local market.
• The overall movement in the CPI was moderated by a 0.2% increase in the 'Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels' division, due to higher electricity rates, as well as a 0.2% rise in the 'Transport' division, reflecting higher petrol prices.
• As such, the annual point-to-point (P2P) inflation rate for February 2025 to February 2026 stood at 3.9%, unchanged from the 3.9% reading in January and down from a post-Hurricane Melissa peak of 4.5% in 2025.
• Two consecutive monthly CPI declines suggest that the inflationary impact of Hurricane Melissa is proving more temporary than initially anticipated. This is owed in large part to the swift response of the Ministry of Agriculture in restoring agricultural production in the storm's aftermath. This was reflected in the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ's) 25 basis points rate cut announcement on February 23, 2026, which was made possible by a faster-than-anticipated recovery in agricultural supplies and mild exchange rate appreciation.
• Inflation is projected to return to the 4.0–6.0% target range by end-2026. However, the BOJ flagged upside risks, including increased domestic spending amid post-hurricane reconstruction efforts and the government's temporary suspension of the fiscal rule, which could place upward pressure on prices over the near term.
• Moreover, since the BOJ’s rate reduction, new risks have emerged from the external environment that could push inflation outside the BOJ target range. The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has pushed oil prices to their highest level. On March 9, Brent Crude Oil hit an intraday high of US$119.50 since Q1 2022, despite the International Energy Agency member countries authorising a record release of oil reserves¹. The war has also caused a spike in fertiliser prices following reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for 20% of global oil supplies and a third of fertiliser.
• Ultimately, the evolution of inflation this year will weigh heavily on the duration of the conflict and whether it spreads to other parts of the region. With the higher upside risks to inflation, we anticipate that the BOJ is likely to take a wait-and-see approach and hold its policy rate at 5.50% at its next meeting scheduled for March 31^st.

__________________________

¹The IEA member countries have authorised the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest coordinated release in history, to stabilise markets following the conflict.

(Sources: JIS, Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• Lumber Depot Limited (LUMBER) hammered out a solid third quarter (Q3) ended January 31, 2026, with net profits rising 34.4% year-over-year to $35.26Mn. The performance reflects strong top-line growth and improved operating performance that helped the company to nail down better results. The quarter's gains were, however, partially offset by a sharp rise in finance costs tied to its first major debt facility, as well as the onset of corporate taxation following the expiry of the company's tax-free status.
• Q3 revenues rose to $412.75Mn (+10.9%), as the company continued to build on sustained demand for lumber, hardware supplies and related products from contractors and homeowners across the Papine community and wider corporate area.
• Gross profit expanded by 23.5% to $97.19Mn, as revenue growth outpaced a 7.5% rise in direct costs. As a result, gross margins improved to 23.5% from 21.1%, as the company got better traction on its product mix and pricing. Administrative expenses also edged up by 3.6% to $56.56Mn – pointing to solid cost discipline. The slower growth in admin expenses, relative to gross profit, coupled with a quadrupling of other income, to $6.25Mn, supported a widening of operating margins from 7.5% to 11.4%.
• On the flip side, net finance costs jumped to $6.72Mn, from income of $0.71Mn, shaving off some of the bottom line. The increase reflects charges associated with a new $200Mn long-term loan facility drawn to fund the acquisition of the property adjacent to its Papine store. This strategic investment is intended to expand inventory capacity, reduce congestion, improve parking, and deliver an enhanced showroom experience for customers.
• Notwithstanding strong Q3 earnings, nine-month earnings inched down 2.3%. This was driven by Lumber Depot's six-month performance, where there was a 14.3% contraction in earnings. This largely reflects the impact of taxation introduced in the current period versus none in the comparable 2024 period, with 2025 marking the first year Lumber Depot bore a tax charge following the expiry of its five-year income tax exemption under JSE’s Junior Market rules. This overshadowed the marginal 0.6% year-on-year improvement in operating profit.
• Looking ahead, management remains focused on executing its expansion strategy, developing the newly acquired adjacent site, and capitalising on acquisition opportunities as construction activity in Jamaica increases. Moreover, the company's 29.3% stake in Atlantic Hardware & Plumbing Company Limited (AHPCL) continues to serve as a complementary strategic asset in its growth toolkit.
• LUMBER's stock price has decreased by 11.7% since the start of the year to close at $2.48 on Monday, March 16, 2026. At this price, it trades at a P/E of 13.05x, which is below the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 19.61x.

(Source: Lumber Depot Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)