• Bermuda’s economy expanded by an estimated 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026 (Q1 2026), adjusted for inflation, extending the momentum recorded in 2025. The growth was primarily supported by stronger household expenditure and construction activity.
• Household spending remained a key driver of growth, increasing 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) to US$827.7Mn. Spending on services rose 2.1%, supported by higher expenditure on catering, accommodation and postal services, while durable goods spending increased 9.7%, driven by purchases of information-processing equipment, motorcycles, and new and used cars. Spending also increased on personal goods, motor fuel, food and non-alcoholic beverages.
• The stronger economic activity was accompanied by broad-based gains in employment income, which rose 6.3% YoY in Q1. Construction recorded a 12% increase, followed by public administration and defence at 11.6% and banking, insurance and real estate at 6%. Employment income also increased in international business, hotels and restaurants, and wholesale and retail, pointing to continued strength across several sectors.
• Construction and tourism provided additional support to growth. Construction investment increased 8.1%, contributing to a 0.6% rise in gross capital formation to US$198.2Mn, although investment in machinery and equipment declined 6.2%. Meanwhile, air visitor arrivals rose to 29,426 from 27,649 a year earlier, with estimated visitor spending increasing to US$55.3Mn from US$48.5Mn (+14.0%).
• Other indicators were mixed, but overall activity remained resilient. Government consumption fell 5.6% to US$190.3Mn, while the trade balance declined marginally by 0.1% to US$831.0Mn as both imports and exports of goods and services decreased.
• Bermuda's exceptional wealth is underpinned by its globally competitive insurance and reinsurance sector, alongside a steady but smaller tourism industry. S&P Global Ratings estimates that Bermuda’s GDP per capita will remain among the highest globally, reaching approximately US$141,000 in 2026, supported by the territory’s role as a leading global insurance and reinsurance hub. Furthermore, the agency expects average real GDP growth of approximately 1.6% over the next four years, reflecting normalisation following the stronger post-pandemic recovery period.

(Sources: Caribbean Today & S&P Global Ratings)

• Barbados risks losing ground in its drive for international climate finance unless it can provide the detailed, reliable data required by lenders and donors, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Environment, National Beautification and Fisheries Santia Bradshaw warned. Speaking during a high-level site visit to the Fisheries Breakwater and Sugar Berth Works with a World Bank technical team, Bradshaw said international institutions increasingly require data to justify their investments.
• While Barbados has significant information collected over decades, the challenge is that the data remains fragmented and poorly integrated. Bradshaw said the country needs to move away from having “lots of reports which we do nothing with” and instead compile statistics that can inform decision-making and strengthen the government’s case when seeking financing. She noted that donors require specific measures of climate-related damage and economic losses, such as the number of fishing vessels lost and the impact on earnings and communities.
• The government is therefore working to strengthen the country’s data-collection and reporting systems through the Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT). The project is intended to improve systems for measuring, verifying, reporting and demonstrating the impact of Barbados’ climate action, while standardising data collection, strengthening quality assurance, reducing duplication and supporting evidence-based policymaking.
• Bradshaw stressed that building capacity will be a long-term process as Barbados’ climate vulnerability continues to increase. The government said climate financing has not been halted, but access to funding depends on Barbados meeting the data requirements attached to individual financing agreements. Bradshaw said funding agencies are generally willing to release financing once the required information and targets are provided.
• The issue also highlights a wider challenge for Caribbean sovereigns, where reliable climate and economic data will be increasingly important to securing external financing. As lenders and investors require greater evidence of climate-related risks and financing needs, gaps in data could make it harder for governments to access funding for disaster recovery and resilience, potentially leaving them more reliant on domestic resources or additional borrowing and placing pressure on fiscal positions.

(Sources: Barbados Today & NCBCM Research)

• New US tariffs could slash Canada's fourth-quarter growth to below 1%, reflecting a new wave of uncertainty that threatens to hit investment ​and hiring, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday.
• Macklem said that as ‌the bank pondered what to do with rates, it had to take into consideration the fact that while slower growth could drag inflation downwards, the Middle East conflict could push it up as oil prices soar. Canada's annual inflation ​rate is 3%, well above the bank's 2% target, and it could edge up ​if oil prices remain near $100 a barrel, he said.
• Canada's economy rebounded in the ⁠second quarter and posted annualised growth of 3.3%, as businesses and households started to adjust and ​plan investments and spending after almost 18 months of US tariffs. But as a prospective trade deal ​collapsed between the two long-term allies, the rift between them has widened with new tariffs from the US.
• In July, before ​the tariffs were unveiled, the BoC had forecast a third-quarter growth of 1.5%, and economists say recent indicators ‌show ⁠it will most likely be around that range. The Middle East conflict has not only impacted crude oil prices but also damaged gasoline and diesel capacity, piling up more pressure on the cost of fuel.
• Macklem said that with no easing of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the risk that inflation broadens and becomes ​more persistent has increased, ​although there is no ⁠evidence so far that the higher fuel costs are spreading to other goods or services. "We don't want to raise our policy rate and restrain ​growth if inflationary pressures are contained. But nor do we want to ​be too slow ⁠to respond if inflationary pressures are being more persistent," he said.
• Macklem noted that since the start of the trade war between the U.S. and Canada, the BoC was seeing evidence that businesses were reducing ⁠their exposure ​to tariffs by changing supply chains and changing sourcing strategies. They ​are also adopting AI technology, but its impact on productivity will take time to reflect. That said, slower population growth and ​an ageing population are also hitting labour supply and consumer demand, he added.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Federal Reserve will likely need to hike interest rates further to lower inflation resulting from strong demand as ​well as a commodity price shock that has moved beyond oil, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Monday, adding that it would be better for the ‌US central bank to act sooner than wait.
• "Both persistent demand and recurring supply forces are continuing to contribute to keeping inflation risks elevated, and I judge that without further policy restraint on inflation it is more likely to be substantially above our 2% target in 18 months than at target," Musalem said in an interview with Reuters.
• Musalem, who is not currently a voting member of the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, would not comment on the Fed's possible next steps or the estimated level the policy rate may need to reach to lower inflation.
• But "earlier and incremental policy firming ⁠is better and less disruptive than later and larger and potentially more abrupt policy action" further in the future, he said. Inflation "is not a risk. It's there," Musalem said, noting that even after stripping out the impact of oil and other supply-related factors, underlying inflation is running perhaps a percentage point above the Fed's target and is "moving in the wrong direction."
• Little progress has been made recently in the ​battle to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's main inflation gauge, was at 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in July, compared to a recent low of 2.3% in April of 2025, as the Trump administration rolled out its plan for global import tariffs. The shock to import prices was followed this year by the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, which pushed up fuel costs globally, with the price of diesel ​hitting a record high recently. Prices for commodities like copper have also been rising, Musalem said, as an offshoot of the artificial intelligence investment boom.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica welcomed more than 736,000 cruise passengers from 234 calls during the first seven months of 2026. Deputy Director of Tourism for the Americas, Phillip Rose, disclosed the figures during the opening of the Jamaica Product Exchange (JAPEX) at Moon Palace Jamaica in Ocho Rios, St. Ann, on September 14.
• Falmouth remained the island’s busiest cruise port, recording 81 calls, followed by Ocho Rios with 76 and Montego Bay with 73. Together, the three North Coast ports accounted for 230 of the 234 calls, underscoring the continued concentration of cruise activity within Jamaica’s established tourism corridors. Kingston and Port Antonio each recorded two calls.
• Tourism officials are seeking to broaden the range of destinations and experiences available to cruise passengers beyond the island’s traditional resort towns and beaches. According to Mr. Rose, visitors have shown growing interest in Kingston’s cultural and entertainment offerings and Port Antonio’s nature-based attractions. Increasing calls to these ports could distribute tourism spending more widely and reduce some of the pressure on the major North Coast destinations.
• Jamaica’s cruise offering is also expected to benefit from the scheduled arrival of the Disney Destiny on October 13, carrying just under 2,800 passengers. The vessel will join ships operated by several major cruise lines that continue to include Jamaica in their itineraries, including Norwegian Cruise Line, MSC Cruises, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Princess Cruises and Virgin Voyages.
• The cruise segment should provide an important source of visitor traffic and foreign-exchange earnings as Jamaica’s tourism industry continues to recover from Hurricane Melissa, particularly while sections of the hotel inventory remain under repair. However, the economic benefit will depend on the extent to which passengers leave the ports and spend on local attractions, transportation, dining and retail services, as cruise visitors generally contribute less per person than stopover tourists.
• Consequently, expanding cruise calls to Kingston and Port Antonio could strengthen the sector’s overall contribution by extending visitor spending beyond the established resort areas. The addition of newer vessels should also support passenger capacity ahead of the winter tourist season, providing a useful complement to the gradual recovery in stopover arrivals and hotel-room availability.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• Developments across the Jamaica Stock Exchange this week highlighted notable updates. Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited reported a strong third-quarter earnings recovery, Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited strengthened its Board to support its growth strategy, and Sygnus Credit Investments Limited renewed its focus on shareholder value through a second share-buyback programme
• Leading the week’s earnings releases, Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited reported improved results for the third quarter ended July 31, 2026. Revenue increased 12.4% year-over-year to J$292.38Mn, while net profit rose 25.1% to J$38.51Mn. Consequently, earnings per share increased to J$0.029 from J$0.023 in the corresponding period.
• However, the nine-month results presented a more subdued picture, reflecting the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa earlier in the financial year. Revenue was broadly unchanged, increasing 0.14% to J$857.10Mn, while net profit declined 28.5% to J$120.50Mn. Profitability was also constrained by higher finance costs following the refinancing of the company’s J$805Mn bond with a new J$1.00Bn facility. The quarterly rebound is encouraging, but a sustained earnings recovery will depend on continued revenue and earnings growth and the company’s ability to absorb its higher debt-servicing costs.
• Turning to corporate governance, Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited announced the appointment of three directors as the company enters what Chairman and CEO Tyrone Wilson described as its next phase of growth. The appointments appear strategically aligned with the Group’s need to strengthen oversight while supporting its expansion plans.
• Jahmar Clarke brings corporate and commercial law expertise to the HR & Compensation Committee. Christopher "Chris" Denny, a 20-year banking and capital markets veteran from Citigroup and FirstCaribbean, steps in as Audit Committee Chair to strengthen financial reporting and controls. Finally, Neil Patrick, formerly of Digicel and Orange UK, joins the Audit and Compensation Committees while also working directly with the Group to build out its technology division. Collectively, the appointments combine stronger legal, financial and governance oversight with expertise that could support Kintyre’s technology-led growth ambitions.
• Rounding out the week, Sygnus Credit Investments Limited unveiled a second Share Buyback Programme, at a time when its shares continue to trade significantly below net asset value (NAV). It is authorising up to US$4.5Mn in repurchases of its JMD and USD Ordinary Shares through June 2029. The programme extends SCI’s existing capital-management strategy. Under its first programme, which ran from June 2023 to June 2026, the company repurchased 136,525 USD shares and approximately 10.30Mn JMD shares. The renewed authorisation gives SCI the flexibility to repurchase shares when they trade below net asset value, potentially narrowing the discount and supporting shareholder value. However, the ultimate benefit will depend on the timing and pricing of the repurchases relative to the company’s other capital-deployment opportunities.

(Sources: JSE, NCBCM Research)

• BMI analyst has revised its outlook for Costa Rica lower, forecasting real GDP growth to moderate to 3.7% in both 2026 and 2027 as the economy continues to stabilise following its post-pandemic surge. The monthly index of economic activity (IMAE) eased to 3.1% in the first half of 2026 and dropped as low as 2.0% in April, the third-lowest reading since 2020, while the central bank's economic confidence index also points to softening conditions.
• The slowdown is concentrated in agriculture and manufacturing. Manufacturing contracted 1.2% in Q2 2026, its first decline since 2020, as goods exports to the US, the largest destination market for Costa Rican goods, fell at the strongest rate in six years. Agriculture shrank 2.2% year-on-year in the same quarter, hurt by the sustained appreciation of the colón against the US dollar, which leaves the sector heavily exposed to FX risk, and by El Niño weather conditions. BMI expects the currency to remain strong through 2027 and El Niño effects to become more pronounced, keeping both sectors under pressure.
• On the expenditure side, private consumption and net exports are seen slowing through the rest of 2026 and into 2027, partly offset by stronger investment. Inflation remains below the central bank's 2.0% to 4.0% target and is not expected to return to that range until 2028, but sharp increases in fuel and transportation costs, alongside high unemployment, will weigh on household purchasing power. President Fernandez's flagship public infrastructure projects, including a maximum-security prison centre and several road projects in 2027 and 2028, should cushion part of the slowdown.
• Risks to the forecast lean to the downside, tied to US trade policy and fiscal constraints. Tariffs on several Costa Rican goods have already risen from an initial statutory emergency rate of 10.0% at the start of the year to 12.5% following the implementation of the new Section 301 forced-labor tariffs. Further increases, despite efforts by President Fernandez to remain compliant with the US, would continue to hit export performance and growth, while difficulties with tax collection could trigger tax increases that weigh on consumption or restrain investment projects.
• For investors, the combination of a firm colón, tariff exposure and soft domestic demand argues for caution on Costa Rican export-linked and consumer-facing names, with infrastructure-related activity the clearer offset. Sub-target inflation leaves scope for supportive monetary policy, but growth looks set to hold near 3.7% into 2027 rather than reaccelerate.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Brazil's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday amid firmer signs of an economic slowdown, while keeping its options open ahead of next month's presidential election. The central bank's rate-setting committee, known as Copom (Comitê de Política Monetária), unanimously lowered the Selic rate to 13.75%, in line with the expectations of 48 of 51 economists polled by Reuters. The remaining three had forecast no change.
• "The total magnitude of the calibration cycle will be established in light of new information aiming to ensure inflation convergence to the target," the central bank reaffirmed in a policy statement that showed only minor changes from the previous meeting. The decision came on the same day that the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range and flagged further increases in coming months.
• The cut extends a cautious easing cycle launched in March that has delivered just 125 basis points of reductions so far, still leaving Brazil with one of the highest real interest rates among major economies. Investors are now looking to Copom's next meeting in early November, just days after what is expected to be a closely contested election runoff between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking re-election, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
• Policymakers said fresh indicators suggest a gradual moderation of economic activity, particularly in more cyclical sectors, albeit at a resilient level. Second-quarter gross domestic product data showed a slowdown, while household consumption contracted. Inflation has also eased, although the labor market remains tight.
• At the same time, rising oil prices have re-emerged as a concern amid renewed conflict in the Middle East, and market inflation expectations for next year have edged higher, moving further away from the official 3% target. Additionally, the central bank nudged up its inflation forecasts to 5.2% for 2026 and 3.9% for 2027, from 5.1% and 3.8%, respectively, while its projection for the relevant 18-month policy horizon through the first quarter of 2028 remained unchanged at 3.2%.
• With activity cooling and the statement essentially unchanged, the easing cycle looks set to continue at a 25 basis point pace, though the bank has left itself room to pause if election-related uncertainty lifts inflation expectations.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England (BoE) held its policy rate at 3.75% on September 17, 2026, but warned that borrowing costs may need to rise if the conflict in the Middle East persists. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to maintain rates, with three members supporting a 25 basis-point increase to 4.0%.
• Although the decision to hold was widely expected, the meeting marked a clear shift in tone towards tighter policy, positioning the BoE to potentially follow the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) in raising borrowing costs.
• According to the BoE, inflation risks have shifted further to the upside as higher global energy prices continue to feed through the economy. Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the longer energy-price volatility persists, the greater its impact on inflation and the likelihood that the bank may need to raise rates to return inflation to its 2% target.
• The central bank now expects inflation to rise to slightly above 4% in early 2027, compared with its previous forecast for a peak of 3.2% in late 2026. UK inflation stood at 3.1% in August, with the higher outlook largely reflecting increased energy costs associated with the prolonged Middle East conflict.
• So far, higher global energy costs have had a limited effect on UK price and wage setting. However, the BoE warned that the longer the volatility persists, the greater the risk that inflation becomes more entrenched, even as underlying wage and business-pricing pressures remain relatively contained.
• The BoE also raised its estimate for Q3 2026 economic growth to 0.4%, from 0.1% previously. Separately, the bank announced changes to its gilt-unwinding programme, including a pause in active bond sales as it seeks to reduce pressure on the UK government bond market.
• The decision represents a hawkish hold, with the BoE leaving rates unchanged while signalling greater concern about persistent energy-driven inflation. Although second-round effects on wages and business pricing remain limited, a prolonged Middle East conflict could increase the risk of inflation becoming more entrenched and strengthen the case for a future rate hike.

(Source: Reuters)

• China has privately asked Iran to help rein in Yemen’s Houthis, according to three Iranian sources familiar with the matter. The request followed an appeal from Saudi Arabia to Beijing as recent Houthi advances and attacks increased risks to the Kingdom and regional energy infrastructure.
• China has significant economic ties with Iran and the wider region. It accounted for more than 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports in 2025, averaging around 1.4Mn barrels per day, while roughly half of China’s oil imports come from the Middle East.
• Saudi Arabia turned to China after the Houthis advanced along the Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, leaving oil exports and shipping more exposed. Beijing wants Iran to use its influence with the Houthis to help prevent the conflict from spreading further across key regional energy routes.
• The escalation is putting pressure on two of the Middle East’s most important energy routes. Only three commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on September 16, down from 12 a day earlier and well below the recent 10-day average of 17. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also eased to 21 vessels from 24.
• Energy markets remain vulnerable despite some easing in oil prices. Brent settled at US$104.82 per barrel and WTI at US$101.91 on September 17, 2026, as markets weighed continued Saudi-Houthi attacks against efforts to restore regional crude flows.
• China’s intervention highlights the growing economic stakes of the conflict for Beijing, given its dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies. With Hormuz traffic sharply constrained and risks also rising around the Red Sea, China has a clear incentive to encourage de-escalation.

(Source: Reuters)