• A 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian products, followed by potential Canadian retaliatory tariffs, would lead two-thirds (65%) of small businesses to increase prices for consumers to offset tariff impacts, warns the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
• Additionally, 69% of small business owners said tariffs would lead to higher costs of doing business.
• “A trade war would be disastrous for both Canadian small businesses and consumers. We need to ensure that as governments face the tariff threat with their American counterparts, they must also stay focused on keeping Canadian businesses competitive at home,” said Corinne Pohlmann, Executive Vice-President of Advocacy.
• “The solution is a no-brainer. This is an SOS call to all governments: reduce red tape, eliminate internal trade barriers, and ease the tax burden on small businesses.”
• New CFIB data found that a strong majority (82%) of businesses would be impacted by tariffs in some way. The U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner, with over half (51%) of small businesses directly involved in either importing from or exporting to the U.S., and this does not include thousands more that rely on suppliers or customers that are trading with the U.S.
• Overall, businesses expect to face limited inventory or product availability and a need to find alternative markets or suppliers if tariffs are imposed.
• Following the findings, CFIB sent a letter to all premiers earlier this week, expressing concerns over the tariff threat and providing recommendations. To address the impact of a potential tariff on Canadian goods, a strong majority of business owners (62%) agree that Canadian governments must reduce the tax burden, with an equal percentage supporting the strengthening of border security measures to address U.S. concerns. Governments must also take bold action on interprovincial trade.

(Source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business)

• Britain's economic output returned to growth in November, the first month after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced big tax increases for businesses, but the expansion was smaller than expected. Gross domestic product rose by 0.1% from October after dips in September and October. However, economists polled by Reuters had mostly forecasted a 0.2% rise.
• Reeves, whose Oct. 30 budget included big increases in social security contributions paid by employers, said she was "determined to go further and faster to kick-start economic growth." She will meet regulators on Thursday to discuss what they can do to help the Labour government meet its promise to speed up the economy.
• However, Ben Jones, lead economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said a mood of caution had settled over UK businesses since the budget. "Many firms are entering 2025 with a focus on reducing operational expenditure, which is likely to weigh on pay, hiring and investment in the months ahead," Jones said
• Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Thursday's data showed the gloomy mood continued for the UK economy due to the budget tax hikes and global uncertainty after Donald Trump's U.S. presidential election victory.
• Britain's economy, which was slow to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, showed zero growth in the third quarter when uncertainty about the upcoming budget hit businesses. The BoE expects economic growth to have flat-lined in the last three months of 2024. However, an increase in government spending is expected to give a short-term boost to growth in 2025.
• Concerns about Britain's slow economy contributed to a recent surge in its government borrowing costs. But they dropped sharply on Wednesday after inflation data at home and in the U.S suggested interest rates could be cut more quickly.

(Source: Reuters)

• Point-to-point inflation increased to 5.0% in December, disrupting four consecutive months of disinflationary trend^[1]. With December’s outturn, the point-to-point inflation rate (P2P) of 5.0% is 70 basis points (bps), higher than the P2P reading in November (4.3%) but 190bps lower than December 2023’s outturn of 6.9%.
• The average price paid for goods and services by Jamaican consumers rose in December, as reflected in a 1.2% increase in the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI). The upward movement in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division (+1.9%), specifically in the ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ class was the main driver of the increase. Notable price increases were seen across all classes in the division, especially for sweet peppers, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, cabbage, and eggs.
• Also contributing to the increase in December 2024 was an increase in the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ index (+2.4%), reflecting higher household rental costs and electricity rates. However, aided by lower fuel prices, the index for the ‘Transport’ division fell by 0.3%.
• ‘The Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ was influenced by higher household rent and electricity rates and higher prices for food purchased from fast food restaurants and cookshops, respectively.
• The ‘Transport’ division fell by 0.3%. This decline was attributable to a fall of 1.8% in the index of the class ‘Fuels and Lubricants for personal transport equipment’ due to lower petrol prices.
• Overall, average consumer prices for 2024 ended at 5.6%, within the BOJ's target range of 4.0%–6.0%. Inflation is expected to remain within this range over the next eight quarters. Still, uncertainties surrounding the potential changes to economic policies among Jamaica’s main trading partners remain an upside risk. However, the timing and the extent of the policy changes are still highly uncertain.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

^[1] Inflation decreased consecutively from 6.5% in August 2024 to 4.3% in November.

• In late November, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump sent shockwaves through global trade by threatening 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, effectively ripping up a regional trade agreement if the two countries didn't do more to curb migration and the flow of drugs.
• It was a big test for Mexico's new President, Claudia Sheinbaum, the country's first female leader who had taken office just eight weeks earlier. Analysts thought the scientist-turned-politician might be too rigid and reserved to navigate the volatile U.S. leader with the relative aplomb of her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
• As Trump prepares to take office, Sheinbaum has publicly sparred with the incoming U.S. president but has also shown concrete results that could help show that Mexico is serious about cooperating on migration and security, as well as China. It is hard to know if that will be enough or if the threat of tariffs on Trump's first day in power is wholly realistic, but experts and former diplomats say Sheinbaum has made a solid start.
• "It's a very pragmatic and proactive approach by Sheinbaum and her team," said Gema Kloppe-Santamaria, a global fellow of the Wilson Center's Mexico Institute. Trump has repeatedly accused the Mexican government of not doing enough to stop migrants and drugs from entering the U.S. and has threatened sweeping tariffs to force more action. He has also railed against Chinese plants setting up shop in Mexico.
• But since taking office, Sheinbaum has intensified an already historic crackdown against migrants traveling toward the U.S. border by detaining an unprecedented 475,000 migrants between October and December and has left open the possibility that Mexico might be willing to accept non-Mexicans deported from the United States.
• Her government has also seized a record 1,100 kilograms of illicit fentanyl and unveiled new tariffs against some Asian goods and confiscated counterfeit Chinese products in several Mexican cities.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nine months in December amid higher costs for energy goods, pointing to still-elevated inflation that aligns with the Federal Reserve's projections for fewer interest rate cuts this year.
• Consumer prices increased 2.9% in 2024, slowing from 4.1% in 2023. Progress bringing inflation back to its target recently hit a snag. Consumers' inflation expectations soared in January, with households concerned that tariffs would raise goods prices.
• A resilient economy, the threat of broad tariffs on imported goods and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants - actions that are deemed inflationary - have led the Fed to project a shallower rate-cut path this year. President-elect Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated next week, has also pledged tax cuts, which would fuel economic growth.
• There were, however, some hopeful signs in the fight against inflation, with the report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showing a measure of underlying price pressures subsiding after barely budging for four straight months.
• That raised prospects of tame monthly readings in the inflation gauges watched by the U.S. central bank for its 2% target and prompted financial markets to bet on a rate cut in June.  No rate cut is expected at the Fed's Jan. 28-29 policy meeting.

(Source: Reuters)

• Negotiators reached a phased deal on Wednesday, January 15, 2025, to end the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, the U.S. and Qatar said, after 15 months of bloodshed that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and inflamed the Middle East.
• The complex accord outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase and includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages taken by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
• At a news conference in Doha, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said the ceasefire would take effect on Sunday. Negotiators are working with Israel and Hamas on steps to implement the deal, he said.
• If successful, the planned phased ceasefire would halt fighting that has reduced much of heavily urbanised Gaza to ruin and displaced most of the tiny enclave's pre-war population of 2.3 million. The death toll is still rising daily.
• Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that the accord was "a great gain." The group, Gaza's dominant Palestinian militant power, told Reuters its delegation had handed mediators its approval for the ceasefire agreement and return of hostages.

(Source: Reuters)

• GraceKennedy Limited has announced key leadership changes, effective February 14, 2025, which coincides with the company's 103rd anniversary.
• After a distinguished tenure, the Honourable Don Wehby, CD, OJ will retire as Group CEO on February 14, 2025, and step down from the Board of Directors. Mr. Wehby joined GraceKennedy in 1995 and was appointed Group CEO in 2011. During his tenure, the company more than doubled in size, with revenue moving from J$58.0Bn in 2011 to J$155.0Bn in 2023.
• Expansion through mergers and acquisitions has been a hallmark of Wehby’s leadership, enabling the company to grow regionally and globally. Under his guidance, it has become one of the largest and most dynamic entities in the Caribbean, with operations spanning the Caribbean, North and Central America, the United Kingdom, and Europe.
• Frank James, current CEO of the company's Domestic Foods Division and former Group CFO, will assume the position of Group CEO on February 14th, 2025, and be appointed to the Board on the same date. Mr. James joined GraceKennedy in 2005 as Vice President of Strategic Planning and Corporate Development. James quickly moved through the ranks, occupying senior roles in both the Food and Financial Services Divisions, before he was appointed Group CFO in 2012.
• He was also appointed to the Board of Directors that same year. In April 2019, James was appointed Chief Executive Officer, GK Foods Domestic, the largest division in the group of companies, where he has championed growth and efficiency. Under his leadership, revenues for GK Foods Domestic grew by more than 60.0% up to 2023 and continue on that growth path, with even greater growth in profitability over the period.

(Sources: JSE & GraceKennedy Group Limited)

• Coffee farmers are to benefit from the distribution of an additional 8,000 seedlings this January, says Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining Minister, Hon. Floyd Green. The move, he said, is part of a broader coffee restoration and expansion programme, which includes support for short-term cash crops to provide farmers with immediate income while waiting for their coffee plants to mature.
• The objective is to not only boost coffee production but to ensure that farmers can sustain their livelihood during challenging periods. The Minister highlighted the Ministry’s ongoing support to the industry, including allocation of J$100.0Mn to improve access to coffee farms by repairing eight key farm roads. “We have already started four of those roads,” he said, citing expenditure of $46 million, so far, on road works in Hall’s Delight in rural St. Andrew, among other areas.
• In addition to infrastructure improvements, the Government has spearheaded recovery efforts through partnerships with the Jamaica Agricultural Commodities Regulatory Authority (JACRA). “We have distributed 12,000 seedlings, over 300 bags of fertiliser and provided essential tools to help our farmers rebuild,” said Minister Green.
• He noted that the Government’s commitment to supporting the coffee industry remains steadfast, with proactive measures paving the way for sustainable growth and resilience in one of Jamaica’s most iconic agricultural sectors.
• “One of the things that people associate with Jamaica and with our greatness is our coffee,” said Minister Green. “Jamaica’s Blue Mountain coffee is among the highest priced coffee in the world, which is a testament to the 5,000 registered coffee farmers who work under very difficult conditions,” he pointed out. To further enhance quality assurance, upgrades to coffee warehouses have been implemented, including new metal shelving and numerical cupping assessments. This ensures that the premium quality of Jamaican Blue Mountain Coffee is maintained for export markets.

(Source: JIS)

• The Commonwealth of The Bahamas and the Republic of El Salvador today marked a historic milestone with the signing of a bilateral Air Service Agreement and Memorandum of Understanding, establishing a framework for enhanced aviation connectivity between the two nations.
• “This agreement represents a bridge that brings us closer, not just geographically, but also in our shared vision for mutual economic growth and development,” said Ambassador Bastian during the signing ceremony. “Enhanced air connectivity will facilitate the movement of travelers, support tourism growth, and open doors for greater trade opportunities between our regions.”
• The Air Service Agreement establishes the legal framework for scheduled passenger and cargo services between the two countries, paving the way for increased tourism, trade, and cultural exchange. The agreement reflects both nations’ commitment to strengthening bilateral relations and fostering economic cooperation.
• Executive Director Morales emphasized the significance of the partnership, noting that the agreement will create new opportunities for connectivity between Central America and the Caribbean region.
• This milestone agreement advances The Bahamas’ strategic objectives to expand its international aviation network and enhance diplomatic relations with key regional partners.

 (Source: EyeWitness News)

• A total of 225 oil lifts from the Stabroek Block were recorded in 2024, with 28 of these going to the government of Guyana.
• Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat disclosed that seven lifts came from the Liza Destiny floating production storage and offloading (FPSO), 11 from the Unity FPSO, and 10 from the Prosperity FPSO. Each lift consists of one million barrels of oil. The total sum earned for the oil lifts was not provided as the process involves sale and verification and the government is now finalising the verification.
• “There is no fixed price for a lift, it depends on the market price,” Minister Bharrat explained. And now, for the first time, since Guyana began producing crude oil, the country is receiving a premium of over US$1 per barrel for crude marketed from the Destiny FPSO, earning additional revenue.
• A premium payment is an amount paid above the standard market price for crude oil. Guyana’s ability to attract a premium reflects the quality of its crude, as well as its improved position in the global oil market.
• Meanwhile, Guyana’s earnings from the sale of oil in the first half of 2024 totaled US$1,220.6Mn. This figure was for the period January to June 2024, according to the Ministry of Finance Mid-Year Report in 2024. During this period, the government had fifteen lifts of profit oil from the three producing FPSOs.
• The government also received US$162.4Mn in royalties related to production and sales from the final quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. The report further stated that at the beginning of 2024, the government had anticipated 25 lifts of oil and expected to earn US$2,292.1Mn from the sale of oil and US$353.8Mn in royalties. Additionally, the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) closing balance was also estimated to stand at approximately US$3,154.9Mn at the end of 2024.

(Source: Guyana Newsroom)