• Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are similar to what they were before the start of ​the Iran war, as tankers exit the key waterway with the help of ‌military escorts, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.
• Wright noted that some 20 million barrels of crude oil exited the strait in the last 24 hours, amounting to around a fifth of world consumption, ​and similar to levels in recent days following an initial U.S.-Iran agreement to ​end the conflict. He added that even if the initial deal reached ​this month to end the conflict did not hold, oil would continue to flow
• Benchmark oil prices fell more than $3 on Wednesday to their lowest level since before the start ‌of the ⁠Iran war in February as supply concerns eased with more stranded oil tankers exiting the strait. Shipments through the narrow waterway bordering Iran had been curtailed for months by the conflict.
• Of note, many of the vessels exiting the strait were avoiding the main channel due to ​fear of mines and instead passing close ⁠to the Iranian coast or along the southern route near Oman, with military escorts. The number of ships is lower than usual, ​but many are bigger, he said.
• Venezuela's oil exports, which the United States has administered since ⁠U.S. forces ​captured former leader Nicolas Maduro in January, are rising ​and could double from current levels to around 2 million barrels per day by the end of President Donald ​Trump's administration in 2029.

(Source: Reuters)

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence Wednesday that the U.S. economy can get back on the path to 3% growth as the Iran war nears conclusion. Growth, however, has been slow over the past two quarters as the domestic economy has battled a number of factors, including a resurgence in inflation, a labour market that had been moderating, and the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
• Gross domestic product rose at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter after rising just 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, concluding a year of 2.1% growth. However, Bessent reiterated that his “3-3-3” plan is still in reach - 3% growth, a 3% deficit-to-GDP rate and a 3 million barrels per day increase in domestic oil production. He estimated that the economy was running at about a 4% growth rate in February, just prior to the U.S. and Israel launching their attack on Iran.
• On the deficit goal, he said: “I think by the end of the president’s term, we can be at something that looks like it could have a three in front of it. What’s important about that is that’s when you start paying down overall debt as a per cent of the economy.” The deficit-to-GDP ratio was at 5.8% to end 2025 after holding above 6% in 2023 and 2024 - uncommonly high rates for peacetime as heavy fiscal spending during the Covid pandemic spilt over into subsequent years.
• The budget shortfall stands at $1.25 trillion through the first eight months of fiscal 2026, 9% lower than the prior year. A main contributor has been high financing costs, which account for the biggest budget outlay after Social Security.
• Trump has repeatedly pushed for the Federal Reserve to lower benchmark interest rates as a way to ease the debt burden. However, the Fed has resisted additional rate cuts during the inflation surge this year. Bessent said Trump has “every confidence” that new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will guide policy appropriately.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jamaica's tourism sector remained depressed in April 2026 as stopover arrivals declined 20.4% year-over-year (YoY) to 198,126 visitors, reflecting the lingering impact of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa. Year-to-date (YTD: January-April), stopover arrivals fell 25.7% to 732,778 visitors compared to 986,392 during the corresponding period in 2025. Data on international terminal passenger traffic at Jamaica's two major airports from Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V., showing decreases of 22.0% and 6.0% from Sangster International (SIA) and Norman Manley International (NMIA), respectively, had already foretold the decline.
• The decline was largely driven by weakness in Jamaica's key source markets. Arrivals from the United States, which accounted for 63.6% of total stopover visitors YTD, fell 23.8% in April and 30.6% for the January-April period. Canada and Europe also recorded YTD contractions of 25.1% and 9.5%, respectively.
• In contrast, Latin America continued to be a bright spot, with stopover arrivals increasing 32.2% in April and 26.5% YTD, albeit from a small base. Strong monthly growth from countries like Colombia (+174.4%), Argentina (+53.2%), and Mexico (+36.3%) highlighted the region's potential to support diversification of the island’s visitor base.
• Cruise tourism also marked another bright spot, showing signs of recovery, with 109,577 (+10.6%) passengers visiting the island in April 2026. Falmouth welcomed the largest share of visitors, followed by Montego Bay and Ocho Rios, reflecting the continued normalisation of Jamaica's cruise operations. That said, YTD, cruise arrivals are up modestly by 0.9%.
• The continued weakness in stopover arrivals likely reflects the slower recovery of the Western corridor of the island, which serves as Jamaica's primary tourism hub. While several properties have resumed operations following Hurricane Melissa, several major hotels in and around Montego Bay remain closed or are operating at reduced capacity, with some not expected to reopen until the second half of 2026^[1]. Consequently, accommodation constraints and reduced tourism capacity have continued to weigh on visitor arrivals, even as other resort areas recover more quickly.
• The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused a sharp rise in energy prices that has led to a surge in airfares and general inflationary pressures across our major source markets, which is weighing on travel demand. The rise in cost of jet fuel has caused airlines worldwide to raise ticket prices and this has been compounded by the bankruptcy of low-cost carrier- Spirit Airlines. Simultaneously, higher inflation is also pressuring real disposable incomes in our main source markets. This combination may encourage travellers to delay vacations, shorten stays, or substitute toward lower-cost destinations. Consequently, tourism demand could remain subdued in the near term, posing an additional headwind to the recovery in stopover arrivals and the broader tourism sector.
• Looking ahead, the tourism sector is likely to remain depressed in the short term. According to data from GAP, terminal passenger traffic declined by a further 19.1% and 5.2% at SIA and NMIA in May. This has resulted in a total YTD (Jan.-May) decline of 27.3% and 4.1%, respectively. Continued weakness in stopover arrivals will therefore continue to pose headwinds for a rebound in tourism activity and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026.

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¹According to Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett, making his contribution to the Sectoral Debate in Parliament on June 23, 2026, Jamaica's tourism sector is expected to recover more than 80% of its hotel room capacity by this summer, as the industry continues its rebound from the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa.

(Sources: JTB, GAP, Travel Pulse & NCBCM Research)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) officially launched its new Micro Market trading platform on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, creating a dedicated avenue for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) to access equity financing and participate in the capital markets. The initiative is guided by three core objectives: facilitating equity financing, strengthening access to capital markets, and creating a pathway for business growth through improved governance and market participation.
• Speaking at the launch event, Finance Minister Fayval Williams highlighted that the initiative is intended to broaden access to capital for smaller businesses while providing investors with new opportunities to participate in the growth of Jamaica's entrepreneurial sector.
• The Micro Market is designed to support businesses within the participating equity capital range of approximately J$10Mn-J$50Mn, while providing a structured pathway for companies seeking to scale and eventually access larger segments of the market. Previously, the Micro Market Steering Committee noted that the initiative could facilitate up to 25 listings within its first two years.
• Importantly, similar to the benefits of listing on the Junior Market, companies listed on the Micro Market will benefit from a full income tax holiday for the first five years following listing, followed by a 50% income tax concession for years six through ten, making it an attractive incentive available to growing businesses locally.
• The JSE also introduced a "sandbox" framework to help smaller enterprises gain experience with listing requirements and market standards before formally entering the exchange, while listed entities will be required to make at least 20% of their shares available to the public to promote inclusion and shared ownership.

(Sources: IrieFM & NCBCM Research)

• ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (EMGL) is hoping to land more sweet light crude in Guyana’s prolific Stabroek Block through ongoing drilling at another exploration well, Goby-1, with activity expected to conclude by July 31, 2026.
• Goby-1 is the third exploration well advertised so far this year by ExxonMobil, following exploration drilling at Barreleye-3, which runs from June 13 to August 31, 2026, and Goatfish-1, which was announced in February. The Goby-1 well site is located approximately 117.2 nautical miles, or 217.1 kilometres, offshore Guyana and covers an area of 0.29 square nautical miles, or one square kilometre.
• To date, ExxonMobil has made 46 discoveries in the Stabroek Block since its first discovery in 2015, reinforcing the basin’s position as a major offshore oil province.  Under the 2016 Stabroek oil deal, ExxonMobil is allowed to recover costs related to exploration activities, including dry holes. Critics argue that these costs should not be borne by the state and that the arrangement reduces profits flowing to Guyana.
• The Stabroek agreement requires ExxonMobil to submit yearly exploration plans and annual budgets to the Government of Guyana. However, those details are not publicly disclosed, and ExxonMobil did not provide an update on its 2026 exploration plans during its June 9 media engagement.
• The latest exploration campaign comes as Guyana continues to attract significant international interest across its energy and mining sectors. Additional discoveries in the Stabroek Block could further enhance the country’s investment appeal and reinforce expectations for sustained economic growth driven by natural resources.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• Brazil’s central bank signalled a preference for combining periods of pause and renewed easing to bring inflation back to its 3% target by the first quarter of 2028, arguing that delaying the convergence horizon helps avoid unwanted volatility and smaller output fluctuations.
• Policymakers said bringing inflation back to target by the end of 2027 would require abrupt changes in direction and large movements in the Selic rate, followed by several quarters of inflation below target. The bank said interest-rate paths closer to market pricing and the weekly Focus survey are more appropriate, as they avoid excessive volatility in financial asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates.
• Last Wednesday, the central bank cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.25%, marking its third consecutive rate cut, while again leaving its next steps open despite higher inflation projections. The decision steepened the yield curve as investors assessed the possibility of a pause in the easing cycle. Analysts interpreted the minutes as having a more hawkish tone.
• Policymakers also noted that monetary policy should not fully respond to price changes caused by supply shocks, which remain highly uncertain. These include effects already materialising from the Middle East conflict, as well as risks that have not yet materialised, such as the potential impact of El Niño.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. has announced the most significant easing of sanctions on Iran's energy sector since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, granting a 60-day exemption that allows Iran to produce, sell, and receive payment for crude oil, petroleum products, and petrochemicals in U.S. dollars through August 21, 2026. The waiver also permits previously sanctioned vessels and entities to participate in transactions, effectively reopening Iran's access to the global oil market and potentially allowing direct exports to the U.S. for the first time in decades.
• The decision follows last week's memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran and reflects continued progress toward a permanent peace agreement. The sanctions relief is expected to unlock approximately 67 million barrels of Iranian crude currently held in floating storage, potentially generating between US$8Bn and US$9Bn in additional revenue for Iran. Iranian oil exports have already begun to recover, reaching a two-month high of 6.79 million barrels shipped last week as negotiations advanced.
• The exemption also removes a major obstacle to Iranian oil trade by allowing proceeds to flow directly through the international banking system and into Iran's central bank. This is expected to encourage higher purchases from China, which currently accounts for roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports. Market participants anticipate Chinese refiners could move quickly to rebuild inventories before the temporary exemption expires, providing a further boost to Iranian export volumes.
• From a market perspective, the development reinforces expectations of increased global oil supply at a time when geopolitical risks in the Middle East are easing. The combination of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the gradual return of Iranian barrels to the market should continue to place downward pressure on crude oil prices over the near term. Lower energy prices would help moderate global inflationary pressures, support consumer spending, and reduce fuel import costs for energy-importing economies such as Jamaica.
• Nevertheless, the impact on global oil balances may not be immediate. Iran is expected to use part of the exemption period to repair war-damaged energy infrastructure and secure longer-term supply agreements. As such, while the announcement strengthens the case for a softer oil price environment, the pace at which Iranian production returns to full capacity will remain an important factor for energy markets in the coming months.

(Source: CNBC)

• Canada's annual inflation rate in May accelerated more than expected to 3.2%, a 29-month high, data ‌showed on Monday, as the impact of higher crude oil prices due to the Iran conflict continued to filter through gasoline costs.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated the annual inflation rate to touch 3% in May, up from 2.8% in April. Gasoline prices, however, are already showing a major reversal in June after an interim peace deal was signed ​between the United States and Iran last week, which, analysts have said, could help ease the headline number in June
• This is the ​first time in nearly two and a half years that Canada's headline inflation has moved outside the Bank of ⁠Canada's 1%-3% target range, at a time when rising living costs are emerging as a political challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who pledged to ​tackle affordability after his party won a parliamentary majority in April. Statistics Canada (StatsCan) said excluding the impact of gasoline prices, the consumer price index still posted a higher increase of 2.2% in May from 2% in April led by elevated cost of food, recreation and alcoholic beverages.
• The ​monthly inflation rate rose to 1% in May, exceeding expectations of a 0.8% rise. This is the highest monthly rise in 15 months. Gasoline prices ​in May rose by 33.2% on a year-over-year basis. Consumers in May shelled out more for gasoline than during its previous peak four years ago when Russia invaded ‌Ukraine, StatsCan ⁠said.
• This led to an increase in the cost of transportation, which accounts for almost 18.5% of the CPI basket, posting a 9% annual increase last month. The inflation number is not likely to alter the Bank of Canada's assessment of underlying inflation as it said earlier this month that it was seeing limited evidence higher energy prices were fueling broad-based inflation. The cost of food, which also contributes around 17% of the CPI basket, rose 3.8% in May ​from 3.5% in April, StatsCan said, ​adding that this was fueled by ⁠an increase in prices of fresh fruits and vegetables which rose by 5.3% and 9% respectively in May.
• The closely tracked measure of core inflation stayed unchanged in May. CPI-median, the centermost component of the CPI basket, stood at 2.1%, while CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was at 2%. The Canadian dollar firmed after the data with the loonie trading up 0.01% to C$1.4150 against the U.S. dollar, or 70.67 U.S. cents. Money markets, which were not expecting ​a rate hike this year, priced in one 25 basis point hike in December after the inflation data.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mailpac Group (MAILPAC) has requested a further extension to file its audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 (FY2025) as auditors required more time to complete additional valuation and accounting procedures related to the acquisition of MyCart Quick Limited (MyCart). The company expects to file the statements on or before July 17, 2026.
• The extended review became necessary after amendments were made to the original acquisition agreement, resulting in a revised basis for calculating the final purchase consideration. To support the completion of the acquisition accounting process, the company engaged Ernst & Young (“EY”) as an independent valuation specialist to perform the purchase price allocation exercise and related valuation analyses.
• Under the amended terms, Mailpac agreed to acquire MyCart for J$243Mn in cash, which was paid on April 15, 2026, together with the issuance of 50 million new ordinary shares. The company disclosed that these shares will be issued and listed once the necessary corporate, regulatory, and JSE requirements are satisfied.
• The impending issuance of the 50 million shares would increase Mailpac's outstanding share count to 2.55 billion units (+2.0%), resulting in modest dilution to existing shareholders. However, the ultimate impact on earnings per share will depend on the extent to which MyCart contributes to profitability following its integration into the group.
• Separately, Mailpac had previously indicated that it was considering changing its name to "MyPac" and holding a shareholder meeting to approve the change. However, after completing the integration of MyCart and reviewing the business, the Board decided not to move forward with the rebranding. As a result, no shareholder meeting was held, and Mailpac will continue operating under its current name.
• At market close on Monday, June 22, 2026, MAILPAC’s price was J$2.34, down 3.30% since the start of the year. At its current price, the company trades at a P/E of 19.50x, which is a 25% premium to the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 15.57x, suggesting investors are already pricing in some benefit from the MyCart acquisition.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Efforts to strengthen Jamaica’s anti-money laundering regime are yielding results, with the Bank of Jamaica's (BOJ’s) National Risk Assessment Report 2026 showing an improvement in the country's overall residual money laundering risk profile. The report found that Jamaica's risk rating declined to Medium with a score of 0.43 in 2025 from Medium-High with a score of 0.72 in 2021^[1]. The improvement was driven by stronger regulatory oversight, enhanced inter-agency coordination, and more effective enforcement measures.
• Despite continued exposure to major crimes such as narcotics trafficking, fraud, and cyber-enabled crime, the report found that criminal actors are facing growing difficulty in exploiting Jamaica's formal financial system. Strengthened law enforcement operations, improved financial investigations, and increased asset recovery efforts have helped contain the flow of illicit proceeds and limit opportunities for abuse within regulated channels.
• Importantly, the banking sector was identified as a key area of progress over the 2021-2025 period. Financial institutions enhanced cyber-security controls, fraud detection systems, authentication protocols, and transaction monitoring capabilities, while regulators increased supervisory scrutiny through targeted reviews and ongoing engagement. These measures reduced vulnerabilities across digital payment channels and contributed to greater resilience within the financial system.
• That said, as controls tightened, criminal networks have adapted their methods. The report noted a shift away from high-volume digital fraud toward lower-frequency but higher-value activities such as cheque forgery, attacks on cash-in-transit services, and other cash-intensive operations. This evolution has made criminal activity more costly, fragmented, and operationally risky, suggesting that defensive measures are narrowing viable avenues for financial crime.
• The assessment also highlighted notable improvements in the remittance and cambio sectors. Enhanced customer due diligence, automated screening systems, stronger governance standards, and closer regulatory oversight reduced the attractiveness of these sectors as money laundering conduits. As a result, illicit actors increasingly migrated toward alternative channels outside the regulated financial ecosystem.
• Looking ahead, emerging vulnerabilities in designated non-financial businesses and professions have been identified, including real estate development, motor vehicle trading, selected professional services, and trade-based money laundering linked to construction materials and vehicle imports. As a result, the BOJ noted that future policy efforts will focus on strengthening intelligence sharing, enhancing financial investigations, improving prosecutions, and expanding oversight in these sectors to further reinforce Jamaica's resilience against evolving financial crime threats.

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¹ML Threat is measured from high to low scores, with a decline in the score marking an improvement. The ranges include High, Medium-high, Medium, Medium-low, and Low.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)