• For years, 5% on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield was viewed as the point at which global financial markets would start hitting ​turbulence. That threshold is beginning to look less like a ceiling and more like a waypoint.
• This month's breach of 5% - something that has happened only briefly in recent ‌decades - has forced investors to contemplate an unsettling question: What if 6% is the new number that should be keeping them awake at night?
• The latest move above 5% has not lasted long enough yet to properly test that theory. But it has always been a psychological marker rather than an automatic tripwire, according to BlueBay Asset Management's head of market strategy, Mike Bell. "People think of it as if there's a magic number for Treasury yields at which it becomes ​a problem, but it's a relative number, not an absolute number," Bell explained.
• JP Morgan's analysts say one of the reasons why the pain point might now be above 5% again is a "key structural shift" in the global economy, with AI, healthcare and services ​playing a bigger role. Many of those firms are spending and expanding, regardless of the level of borrowing costs.
• That means "the traditional interest-rate channel looks materially less binding" and the "breaking threshold" of stock markets may be "meaningfully higher, potentially in the 5.5%-6.0% range", JP Morgan said, referencing the views of some of the major investors at one of its most recent conferences. In the $29Tn Treasury market, which anchors pricing for virtually all financial assets, a shift from 5% to 6% ​would represent a profound adjustment in the global cost of capital.
• A 6% Treasury yield would imply either significantly higher inflation expectations, growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability, a conviction that interest rates will remain ​elevated for years - or a mix of all three.

(Source: Reuters)

• For years, 5% on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield was viewed as the point at which global financial markets would start hitting ​turbulence. That threshold is beginning to look less like a ceiling and more like a waypoint.
• This month's breach of 5% - something that has happened only briefly in recent ‌decades - has forced investors to contemplate an unsettling question: What if 6% is the new number that should be keeping them awake at night?
• The latest move above 5% has not lasted long enough yet to properly test that theory. But it has always been a psychological marker rather than an automatic tripwire, according to BlueBay Asset Management's head of market strategy, Mike Bell. "People think of it as if there's a magic number for Treasury yields at which it becomes ​a problem, but it's a relative number, not an absolute number," Bell explained.
• JP Morgan's analysts say one of the reasons why the pain point might now be above 5% again is a "key structural shift" in the global economy, with AI, healthcare and services ​playing a bigger role. Many of those firms are spending and expanding, regardless of the level of borrowing costs.
• That means "the traditional interest-rate channel looks materially less binding" and the "breaking threshold" of stock markets may be "meaningfully higher, potentially in the 5.5%-6.0% range", JP Morgan said, referencing the views of some of the major investors at one of its most recent conferences. In the $29Tn Treasury market, which anchors pricing for virtually all financial assets, a shift from 5% to 6% ​would represent a profound adjustment in the global cost of capital.
• A 6% Treasury yield would imply either significantly higher inflation expectations, growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability, a conviction that interest rates will remain ​elevated for years - or a mix of all three.

(Source: Reuters)

• AI-led investment is helping the global economy hold up marginally better than expected this year, but the ‌energy shock is becoming more entrenched, weighing on the outlook for 2027, the OECD said on Wednesday. After 3.4% growth last year, the global economy is set to slow to 2.9% growth in 2026, slightly better than the 2.8% forecast in June, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its interim economic outlook.
• Heading into 2027, the commodity price shock caused by the Middle East conflict is expected to weigh on momentum, and the OECD forecasts global growth picking up to only 3.0%, from 3.1% in June.
• The OECD said ⁠strong spending on AI infrastructure, from data centres to semiconductors, has been a key pillar of resilience this year, boosting growth in the United States and lifting technology exports from Japan and Korea.
• However, it warned the global outlook was particularly clouded by the potential for energy market jitters, extreme weather related to a strong El Niño, surging government bond yields and disappointing AI investment returns.
• If those risks materialised, the OECD estimated they could together reduce global growth by 0.7 percentage points next year and raise global inflation by 1.1 percentage points.
• In the OECD's baseline outlook, inflation in G20 economies was seen at 4.1% in 2026, up from 4.0% forecast in June. The OECD also raised its 2027 forecast to 3.6%, from 3.1% in June, which it said could force central banks to adjust interest rates if price pressures broaden or growth ‌falters.

(Source: Reuters)

• Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) has agreed to acquire a 50% stake in a newly established joint venture controlling Sandals Resorts International for US$3.0Bn, valuing the Caribbean all-inclusive resort operator at US$6.0Bn. The transaction, which represents a forward EBITDA multiple of approximately 10x, is the largest in the cruise operator’s history. Parts of the Stewart family will retain control of the other half of the business.
• The deal adds Sandals’ 20 resorts across the Caribbean to Royal Caribbean’s portfolio, operated under the couples-only Sandals brand and the family-focused Beaches brand, with properties in Jamaica, the Bahamas, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Barbados and St Vincent. The acquisition extends the company’s push into land-based vacations, building on its Perfect Day and Royal Beach Club private destinations and its planned 2027 entry into river cruising, while allowing it to cross-sell holidays on land to its customers.
• The joint venture will be governed by a board under the shared leadership of Jason Liberty, Royal Caribbean’s Chairman and CEO, and Adam Stewart, who will remain Executive Chairman of Sandals and Beaches Resorts. Existing reservations, loyalty programs and resort operations will continue as usual. Royal Caribbean has secured committed debt financing from Morgan Stanley, and the transaction is expected to close in early 2027.
• The agreement caps years of stop-start efforts to sell Sandals, the Caribbean’s largest private employer. Several sale processes over the past decade failed to yield a deal, including an attempt halted by the pandemic, while the death of founder Gordon “Butch” Stewart in 2021 gave rise to family disputes and legal battles over the trusts holding parts of his estate. Sandals engaged bankers last year to run the latest process, which drew interest from both strategic bidders and private equity groups.
• Royal Caribbean’s shares closed down 6.1% following news of the deal and are down 17% year-to-date. Cruise operators are underperforming the wider market for the first time since the pandemic, as the conflict in Iran and regional instability dent demand. In July, Royal Caribbean trimmed its 2026 revenue growth projection to 9% from 10%, citing foreign exchange effects. The company, which operates 71 ships, has a market capitalization of US$62Bn.
• Looking ahead, the joint venture is expected to accelerate the expansion of Sandals and Beaches Resorts to meet global demand, while growing Royal Caribbean’s participation in the approximately US$2 trillion global vacation market as cruise operators seek to capture a larger share of consumers’ overall travel spending. The companies will also explore opportunities to broaden distribution and deepen guest engagement across both portfolios. The transaction is expected to be accretive to Royal Caribbean’s earnings next year, subject to customary approvals and closing conditions.

(Sources: Financial Times, Reuters, Sandals Resorts & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica Broilers Group Limited (JBG) reported a net loss of J$6.80Bn for the year ended May 2, 2026, narrowing FY2025’s loss by 5.9%.
• The loss was driven by a J$9.76Bn hit from the discontinued operations. This comprised a J$6.00Bn net loss from The Best Dressed Chicken, Inc., the Group’s underperforming US broiler processing subsidiary, before its assets were sold, and a J$3.75Bn loss on the sale itself, as the assets’ J$8.69Bn carrying amount far exceeded the J$4.98Bn in proceeds. Still a partial booster shot was that continuing operations returned to profitability, generating a net profit of J$2.96Bn compared with a J$2.95Bn loss in FY2025. Revenue from continuing operations increased 2.3% to J$74.26Bn. This was supported by a 20.1% growth in external revenue from the Group’s continuing US operations to J$14.45Bn, while Jamaica external revenue declined 0.9% to J$60.17Bn.
• Cost of sales fell 7.8% to J$52.97Bn, driving a 41.5% increase in gross profit to J$21.66Bn and a 799 basis points widening in gross margin to 29.0%. Meanwhile, total operating expenses fell 4.9% to J$14.58Bn. Distribution costs rose 24.4% to J$3.58Bn, but administration and other expenses declined 11.7% to J$10.99Bn, reflecting lower staff and inventory costs. With other income more than tripling to J$623.62Mn, operating profit rose to J$7.71Bn from J$167.10Mn, with the operating margin expanding to 10.3% from 0.2%.
• Finance costs eased by 1.6% to J$2.49Bn, but the operating profit jump was supstantial enough to drive profit before tax to J$5.15Bn, versus a J$2.32Bn loss a year earlier.
• Notably, EY issued an unmodified audit opinion¹ compared with the prior auditor’s qualified opinion on FY2025, which had related to accounting irregularities in the US operations. An independent forensic review completed after year end found no additional transactions or irregularities requiring adjustment. However, certain covenants on US subsidiary facilities were not met, and a forbearance agreement with lenders expires on October 16, 2026. Management expects positive cash flow and EBITDA from the US operations in FY2027 and is pursuing cost controls, additional working-capital funding and revenue growth initiatives.
• Looking ahead, stronger margins and the return of continuing operations to profit provide a firmer platform for FY2027. Nonetheless, the durability of the recovery will depend on sustained performance in Jamaica, the viability and refinancing of the remaining US operations, and tighter control of finance and tax costs.
• At the close of trading on September 22nd, JBG’s share price was J$12.27, representing a 28.7% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock’s P/B of 0.64x is below the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 1.50x.

_______________________

¹An unmodified audit opinion (often called a clean opinion) is a report issued by an independent auditor stating that a company's financial statements are presented fairly in all material respects and comply with accounting standards like GAAP or IFRS

(Sources: Jamaia Broilers Group Ltd. Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Seprod Limited (SEP) has called an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) of shareholders to approve an increase in the Company’s authorised share capital, a 5-for-1 stock split and authority for the Board to issue new shares, including by way of an Additional Public Offering (APO). The EGM will be held virtually on Monday, October 12, 2026 at 12:00 p.m.
• The Board met on September 21, 2026 and agreed to put three resolutions to shareholders: an increase in the number of shares the Company is authorised to issue to 1.9Bn from 1.0Bn, the subdivision of every issued share into five shares, and authority for the Board to issue new shares in future, including through an APO.
• According to Chairman P.B. Scott, over the past four years Seprod has built the Caribbean’s largest integrated manufacturing and distribution platform for food, pharmaceuticals and premium beverages, and is now focused on integrating its businesses and strengthening its balance sheet. The resolutions are intended to provide greater flexibility to pursue these objectives while positioning the Company to take advantage of future growth opportunities.
• For the year ended December 31, 2025, Seprod reported revenue of J$152.3Bn, up 14%, with operating profit of J$11.1Bn and net profit attributable to stockholders of J$4.2Bn.
• At the close of trading on September 22nd, SEP’s share price was J$72.14, representing a 14.0% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock’s P/E of 12.04x is below the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 15.12x, while its dividend yield stands at 2.5%.

(Sources: Company Press Release & NCBCM Research)

• Production from Guyana’s Yellowtail development in the Stabroek Block is expected to ramp up further before the end of 2026, with ExxonMobil studying an optimisation that could lift output from the ONE GUYANA floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel to around 290,000 barrels per day (b/d).
• The move to increase Yellowtail’s production by about 10% was announced in March by the company’s Guyana President, Alistair Routledge. The FPSO is already producing above its original design capacity of 250,000 b/d, with government data reviewed by OilNOW showing Yellowtail output reached about 270,000 b/d in July. Production ranged between 257,000 b/d and 264,000 b/d during April, May and June.
• According to the Guyana government’s mid-year report for 2026, further ramp-up of ONE GUYANA production is projected, adding to overall Stabroek Block output. “The Stabroek Block saw increased activity in the first half of this year, primarily supported by the One Guyana FPSO joining the fleet last year… Production reached 163.3 million barrels at the end of June 2026, exceeding the 115.7 million barrels achieved at the end of June 2025,” the administration stated.
• The increase in production is also expected to raise the volume of oil lifts available to the Government under the Stabroek Block production sharing agreement (PSA)¹. When the government’s 2026 budget was announced, Guyana was projected to receive 40 of the 309 oil lifts expected from the Stabroek Block. The latest projections now estimate 326 total lifts, with the government’s share rising to 84.
• ONE GUYANA began producing oil in 2025, bringing Yellowtail into production. Output rose from about 75,000 b/d in its first month to the FPSO’s 250,000 b/d design capacity within three months. The planned optimisation follows production improvements made across ExxonMobil’s other producing projects in Guyana. Liza 1 capacity was increased from 120,000 b/d to about 160,000 b/d, while Liza 2 and Payara were optimised from 220,000 b/d to about 265,000 b/d each, adding about 130,000 b/d of capacity across the three developments.
• The optimisation work has included debottlenecking FPSO systems, improving reservoir management and applying technology to improve well and facility performance. Yellowtail is expected to recover about 925 million barrels from the Yellowtail and Redtail fields through six drill centres and up to 67 development wells. ExxonMobil operates the block with a 45% interest.

________________________

¹A Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) is a contract between a host government and a resource extraction company that sets how they will share the oil, gas, or minerals found in a specific area.

(Source: Brazil Energy Insight)

• S&P Global Ratings (S&P) affirmed Panama’s ‘BBB-/A-3’ sovereign credit ratings on September 22, 2026, and maintained a Stable Outlook, reflecting expectations of continued fiscal consolidation, resilient economic growth and broadly consistent pro-business economic policies.
• Economic growth remains a key credit strength, according to S&P, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expected to expand 4.5% in 2026, supported by strong Panama Canal activity, recovering construction, air transportation and tourism. Furthermore, growth is expected to average around 4% over 2027-2029, although a severe El Niño event could weigh on Canal activity in 2027 by reducing rainfall and Gatun Lake water levels.
• Panama’s fiscal position is also improving, supported by revenue efficiencies, expenditure rationalisation, lower capital spending and higher contributions from the Panama Canal. S&P expects the general government fiscal deficit to narrow to around 3% of GDP from 2027, with net general government debt stabilising at approximately 55% of GDP over 2026-2029.
• Despite the improving fiscal trajectory, Panama’s fiscal flexibility remains constrained by its low tax revenue base and spending rigidities. Tax revenue is only 6.9% of GDP, while limited capacity to implement broader tax or expenditure reforms could slow fiscal consolidation. Meanwhile, elevated external debt and Panama’s lack of monetary flexibility remain rating constraints. Against this backdrop, further fiscal consolidation that meaningfully reduces public debt and strengthens fiscal buffers could support an upgrade, while policy setbacks that slow deficit reduction or weaker-than-expected economic growth could place downward pressure on the ratings over the next 12-24 months.
• Looking ahead, Panama’s strategic position and diversified services economy should continue to support its credit profile, with the Panama Canal, tourism and air transportation underpinning current account surpluses, while geopolitical disruptions are increasing the country’s importance as a global logistics hub. Potential reopening of Minera Panamá could also provide additional growth, export and fiscal benefits, although S&P has not incorporated these potential gains into its forecasts.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Oil prices fell to a two-week low on Tuesday as prospects for increased oil supplies from the Gulf eased market concerns. Iran signalled that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, while Saudi Arabia was set to resume exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu. The November Brent crude futures contract fell $2.01, or 2%, to $98.33 a barrel at 1027 GMT. The October WTI contract, which expires on Tuesday, lost $2.50, or 2.61%, to $93.28 a barrel.
• Brent November, WTI October and WTI November all touched their lowest levels since September 8. Iran can reopen ⁠ the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday.
• The official said that the Iranian delegation to the United Nations General Assembly in New York has full authority to revive diplomacy with the United States. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said oil prices appeared to be falling on media reports that Iran may be willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, which could signal that diplomatic efforts are working. Before US-Israeli attacks on Iran began in late February, the strait handled about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
• Further weighing on prices, Saudi Arabia restarted operations on its East-West Pipeline and could resume exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu later on Tuesday, according to three sources briefed on the matter. Two of the sources said the pipeline was operating at a low rate. Market attention is also focused on US President Donald Trump's meetings with world leaders at the UN General Assembly this week, against the backdrop of an unstable Middle East and a four-and-a-half-year war in Ukraine that shows no signs of abating.
• Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on its East-West Pipeline forced it to halt some shipments through Yanbu. Around 14 million barrels of its crude oil were loaded on ⁠ seven supertankers inside the Gulf on Sunday, tanker tracking data showed.
• Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that he does not see much further downside in oil prices until there is increased supply through the Strait of Hormuz, particularly refined products, where the real ⁠ crunch remains. Diesel prices have rallied in Europe and the United States to record highs as wars in Iran and Ukraine sharply cut exports from some of the biggest producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada, we expect Canada's current account to shift to a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2026, as rising oil prices boost export receipts, before returning to a slight deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 2027 as prices begin to normalise. The US-Iran war has driven oil prices sharply higher, materially boosting Canada's exports, trade balance and external position through a sustained improvement in the country's terms of trade. With crude oil prices settling above USD100 per barrel in September 2026 and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remaining unresolved, high energy prices are likely to continue supporting Canada's external position through surging energy exports in the near and medium term.
• Furthermore, a series of trade deals and the development of export infrastructure will help Canada diversify its export profile, offsetting some of the near-term pain caused by the ongoing trade war with the United States. However, rising energy prices could weigh on external demand, creating a medium-term headwind for Canada's exporters despite near-term tailwinds. Looking to 2027, BMI expects Canada’s current account to return to a modest deficit as elevated oil prices normalise and trade disruptions weigh on exports.
• Canada’s current account and goods trade balances returned to surplus in Q2 2026, driven by a 27.4% q-o-q surge in energy exports. Strong goods exports also outpaced import growth, lifting the trade surplus to CAD12.2Bn, the highest since Q3 2008. Automotive exports rose by 19.3% q-o-q, while the current account posted its largest surplus since Q4 2005.
• Furthermore, with Canadian energy exports not subject to US tariffs, these crucial exports have continued to rise. Also, while the United States remains the primary customer for Canada's energy producers, its share of Canadian energy exports fell to 82.7%, down from 90.6% in July 2024, while China imported an increasing share alongside rising exports to the rest of the world, a shift likely to endure as Canada pivots from its southern neighbour.
• The USMCA should continue to support North American trade by keeping most trade tariff-free, providing a boost to exports, investment, and overall trade. However, rising US-Canada trade tensions, renewed tariffs, and the lack of USMCA exemptions for some Canadian exports are increasing risks to the agreement.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)