• The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its June 16-17 meeting, marking its fourth consecutive hold. The decision was unanimous and widely expected as policymakers balanced a robust labour market against elevated inflation stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict and energy shock.
• The Fed’s updated economic projections highlight the Fed’s increased hawkishness since their March projections. Policymakers now expect higher inflation (3.6% vs. 2.7%), slightly weaker growth (2.2% compared to 2.4%), and a greater case for a rate hike, with 9 of 19 officials projecting one hike by the end of 2026. At the same time, the Fed maintained a relatively positive view of the labour market, forecasting unemployment at 4.3%, compared to 4.4% in the March projections.
• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made an immediate imprint on policy communications, introducing a significantly shorter statement that removed all forward guidance on future rate moves. Warsh said forward guidance was not “well suited” to the current environment, signalling a return to a more Greenspan-era approach to Fed communication.
• The Fed acknowledged that inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% target, partly due to supply shocks and higher energy prices. Officials noted that underlying inflation risks could remain tilted to the upside as firms continue passing on higher costs, even as the recent U.S.-Iran peace agreement eases some concerns over future energy prices.
• Warsh also launched a broad reform agenda, announcing reviews of the Fed’s communications framework, balance sheet, data sources, inflation framework, and productivity and jobs analysis. He also declined to submit his own economic projections, consistent with his long-standing criticism of the Fed’s forecasting process.
• While markets had expected rates to remain unchanged, investors focused on the Fed’s more hawkish outlook and reform agenda. Interest-rate futures now reflect increased expectations of a rate hike later this year, although Fitch BMI continues to expect a prolonged hold, arguing that inflationary pressures linked to the conflict should gradually fade if the U.S.-Iran agreement holds.

(Sources: Reuters & BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Japan’s crude oil import price hit a record high in yen terms in May 2026, driven by a surge in crude prices resulting from supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The customs-cleared import price rose to 114,076 yen (US$712) per kilolitre, surpassing the previous record of 101,389 yen set in April 2026.
• In dollar terms, the price stood at US$114.58 per barrel, the 17th highest on record. The increase reflects the sharp rise in global crude prices following disruptions to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
• Japan’s crude import price, known as the Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC), is based on customs-cleared CIF (cost, insurance and freight) prices and reflects global crude trends with roughly a one-month lag due to shipping times. Higher JCC prices raise the cost of importing both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), a key fuel for thermal power generation, and feed directly into higher electricity prices.
• Crude oil import volumes fell 57.3% year-over-year in May, following a 64% plunge in April, the steepest decline since 1980. Despite higher prices, the value of crude imports fell 28.5%, reflecting the sharp contraction in import volumes.
• By region, imports from the Middle East tumbled 61.9% to 3.967 million kilolitres, while imports from the United States rose 24% to 576,000 kilolitres, suggesting Japan has increasingly turned to alternative suppliers to offset shortages from its traditional sources.
• Before disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, Japan sourced about 95% of its crude imports from the Middle East, underscoring the country’s heavy dependence on the region for energy security. The sharp rise in Japan’s crude import prices highlights the economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on major energy-importing nations.
• While Japan has increased imports from the United States and other sources, the country’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude means higher energy costs are likely to continue feeding through to electricity prices and inflation, adding to the Bank of Japan’s concerns over persistent price pressures.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite slightly higher revenues for the quarter ended April 2026 (Q2 2026), Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited’s (INDIES’) profits slipped by 1.3% as rising costs had its side-effects.
• Q2 2026 revenues totalled $285.02Mn, up 5.6% relative to Q2 2025, suggesting that the company is recovering from the acute operational disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa in Q1. For context, revenues were down 14.0% for Q1 2026.
• However, cost of sales increased by 6.8% to $75.39Mn, compressing gross margin by 30 basis points to 73.6% for the quarter. Operating expenses also exhibited mild symptoms, rising 5.2% to $122.62Mn, largely driven by higher administrative costs. As a result, operating profits increased by 4.9% to $89.40 and margins inched down from 31.6% to 31.4%.
• Finance costs and exchange losses were more bitter pills to swallow. INDIES saw its finance costs increase by 33.2% to $19.66Mn. While the $1.0Bn refinancing improved the Company's debt maturity profile, allowing it to retire the $805Mn bond with this 5-year facility, the higher 9.5% interest rate, compared to the previous 7.5% and smaller principal resulted in elevated finance costs that continued to weigh on earnings. Meanwhile, its $0.37Mn in exchange losses was a reversal of $1.71Mn gains for Q2 2025.
• Despite near-term pressures, the company’s growth outlook is supported by the recent FDA approval of Regadenoson injection, a pharmacologic stress agent used in myocardial perfusion imaging. The drug has entered production and is poised to enter the market by the start of the next quarter.
• Overall, the integration of these drugs into the US market is expected to support strong business growth and serve as a major earnings driver. Additionally, the company is also actively researching to identify new generic drugs to introduce into the US market.
• Indies’ stock price has decreased by 6.7% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $2.65 and currently trades at a P/E of 26.5x, which is above the Junior Market Health Sector Average of 21.5x.

(Sources: JSE& NCBCM research)

• Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Governor Richard Byles reported to the Standing Finance Committee (SFC) of Parliament on June 10 that the central bank has achieved significant policy successes. This was achieved through the steady and professional execution of its statutory mandate of price and financial system stability over the past seven years. He noted that this record of stewardship by the Bank was established amid a climate of considerable externally originating turbulence, including a global pandemic, supply chain disruptions that drove inflation across the world, two major hurricanes, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
• In his final report to the SFC during his tenure as Governor, Mr Byles told members of the House of Representatives that the Bank’s policy achievements included inflation that was significantly controlled within target over the period, financial system soundness, and the start of a slate of institutional reforms. He noted that the BOJ has been an operationally independent central bank since 2021, a government policy decision that Mr Byles described as bold and consequential.
• On financial system stability, the Governor pointed to the fact that despite profound global disruptions, there were no bank failures in Jamaica, which places Jamaica in a strong macroprudential position. By comparison, the United States’ Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation reports 19 bank failures over the seven-year span to date.
• In relation to the foreign exchange market, the Jamaican dollar depreciated at a moderate average of 2.9% per year, which is broadly in line with the inflation differential with the United States, thus preserving the country’s external competitiveness. Gross international reserves also increased significantly from US$3.6Bn in 2019 to US$6.4Bn as of May 2026, the Governor reported.
• The BOJ played a leading role in policy reforms that helped secure Jamaica’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force’s Grey List in 2024, strengthening the country’s financial reputation. Governor Byles also highlighted that the Bank has contributed significantly to public finances, paying more than J$50Bn in dividends to the Ministry of Finance over the past seven years.
• Governor Byles further emphasised the BOJ’s modernisation agenda, including the introduction of more secure polymer banknotes and continued expansion of the JAM-DEX digital currency platform, with phone-to-phone transactions expected soon. Jamaica remains among a small group of countries to pioneer a central bank digital currency.
• In terms of fundamental challenges, Mr Byles pointed to the weakness of monetary transmission in Jamaica’s concentrated banking system and conceded that this remains a structural challenge constraining the pass-through of policy signals to credit and lending rates. This, he suggested, will not resolve itself quickly and remains a challenge for the future leadership of the central bank.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica)

• Brazil's central bank is expected to deliver a third consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate cut on Wednesday, June 17, according to a Reuters poll of economists. This lowers the benchmark Selic rate to 14.25% as policymakers gradually unwind borrowing costs from near two-decade highs while contending with persistent inflation pressures. The monetary policy committee, known as Copom, began a moderate easing cycle in March after holding the cost of borrowing at 15.0% through the second half of 2025.
• Of 45 economists polled between June 12 and June 15, 41 expect a quarter-point cut while four anticipate no change. “The committee's communication between meetings is consistent with a further reduction in the Selic rate at a similar pace,” said Joao Savignon, head of macroeconomic research at Kinitro Capital. However, he noted the overall planning of the cycle had become more uncertain. Policymakers are likely to retain a cautious tone given persistent consumer-price pressure.
• Annual inflation in Latin America's largest economy accelerated to 4.72% in May from 4.39% in April, drifting further above the central bank's 3% target, which carries a tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points on either side. The El Niño weather pattern has emerged as an additional inflation concern, BTG Pactual economists noted, warning that with some further unanchoring of expectations “the scope for interest rate cuts this year becomes virtually nil.”
• Nearly two-thirds of poll participants who answered an additional question, 19 of 31, expect another 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting in August. Median quarterly forecasts point to the Selic ending 2026 at 13.75% and closing 2027 at 12.00%, broadly in line with consensus views from the central bank's weekly survey of economists.

(Source: Reuters)

• BMI expects Panama's real GDP to grow 3.8% in 2026, an upward revision from an initial 3.0% forecast driven largely by higher investment and mining activity. The government's decision to authorise First Quantum Minerals to remove and process stockpiled ore at the Cobre Panama mine is expected to provide a short-term boost to several macroeconomic figures. Even so, structural conditions remain weak, with domestic consumption showing strong volatility and averaging just 1.8% annual growth between 2020 and 2025.
• Data on consumer prices, imports of consumer goods and vehicle sales point to both a slowdown in domestic consumption and a shift in spending patterns. Imports of consumer goods opened the year with one of the sharpest year-over-year declines of the past five years, yielding a modest 2.1% average growth rate in the first quarter and extending the soft 1.3% expansion recorded in 2025.
• Subdued import activity has fed through to consumer prices, with inflation remaining weak for two consecutive years, negative 0.2% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025, and only beginning to tick up on higher fuel prices linked to the US-Iran conflict. Soft inflation across key categories such as food and beverages, clothing and housing underscores the persistent weakness in household demand.
• BMI's forecast assumes a moderately better scenario for private consumption from 2026 onward, though households are expected to stay budget-constrained and to favour essential goods and services over luxury items. Downside risks include the external geopolitical backdrop, climate effects, chiefly El Niño and its impact on transit through the Panama Canal, and the potential for internal social unrest to weigh on activity, employment and consumer spending.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• A US$300Bn private fund designed to trigger investment into Iran is outlined in the U.S.-Iran framework agreement, with more than half of the funding already committed. The fund is intended to provide both sides with an economic incentive to conclude a final agreement.
• The fund, which is to be called the Reconstruction and Development Fund, is a private investment vehicle, not a reconstruction or reparations programme, and will not include any government money or grants. Companies based in the United States, Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa have reportedly agreed to commit financing, with investments spanning sectors including energy, logistics, manufacturing and transport.
• The investment fund emerged after Iran initially sought US$400Bn in compensation for war damages from the United States. According to sources, Washington rejected that proposal, leading negotiators to develop the fund as an alternative mechanism.
• Iran, one of the Middle East's largest economies, has attracted almost no significant foreign direct investment in the past four decades, frozen ​out of global capital markets by successive waves of U.S. and international sanctions. However, the country possesses the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves, the fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and a population of more than 92 million people, creating significant long-term investment potential.
• The investment fund is separate from negotiations on the lifting of U.S. sanctions and the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad. In addition, it will not become operational until a final agreement is reached, with the current memorandum of understanding intended to guide negotiations over the next 60 days.
• The proposed fund represents a significant shift toward an economic reconstruction framework. If implemented, it could help attract foreign capital into sectors that have remained largely isolated from global investment for decades, while providing Iran with a strong economic incentive to maintain compliance with a final nuclear and security agreement.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its short-term policy rate to 1.0% from 0.75%, taking borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995. The move marks the first rate hike since December and reflects the central bank’s continued policy normalisation efforts.
• Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signalled that the BOJ remains prepared to tighten policy further, citing the risk that underlying inflation could rise above the central bank’s 2% target despite easing economic risks associated with the Iran war.
• While the recent U.S.-Iran peace deal helped reduce concerns about a prolonged energy supply shock, the BOJ noted that firms are increasingly passing on higher costs and raising wages. Japan’s wholesale inflation rose to a three-year high of 6.3% in May, signalling that higher energy costs are already feeding through the economy.
• According to the BOJ, there is a risk that medium- and long-term inflation expectations could continue to rise, increasing the possibility that underlying inflation deviates above its target. Analysts expect the BOJ to raise rates again before year-end, with some suggesting that persistent inflationary pressures, a weak yen, and continued pass-through of import costs could justify another increase as early as October.
• The Middle East conflict has complicated the BOJ’s policy path by pushing up oil prices and adding inflationary pressure to an economy heavily reliant on imported fuel. Although the bank believes the risk of a sharp economic deterioration has diminished due to progress in securing alternative energy supplies, it warned that rising oil costs could continue to lift consumer prices across a broad range of goods.
• The BOJ’s latest decision highlights a shift in focus from supporting growth to preventing inflation from becoming entrenched. While the easing of tensions in the Middle East has reduced downside risks to the economy, policymakers appear increasingly concerned that higher energy costs, stronger wage growth and a weak yen could keep inflation above target, necessitating further policy tightening.

(Source: Reuters)

• The latest Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) show that consumer prices recorded the largest monthly increase since November 2025, when Hurricane Melissa’s impact on agricultural produce caused a 2.4% monthly surge in prices. The CPI rose by5% in May, contributing to the 5.4% 12-month point-to-point (P2P) inflation.
• May’s monthly increase was driven primarily by a 1.9% rise in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. This movement was largely attributable to higher prices for agricultural produce, including tomatoes, cabbage, carrots, ripe bananas and pineapples, which resulted in a 4.8% increase in the index of the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’.
• Also contributing to the increase was the ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ division, recording a 5.7% rise in its index. STATIN noted this reflected higher prices for some meals consumed away from home. The monthly increases contributed to P2P increases of 8.7% for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division, 6.9% for ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ and 3.1% for Transport.
• Notably, P2P and monthly contributions from ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ had one of the smallest monthly increases, up 0.7%. While there was a 2.9% increase in the price of electricity and gas and other fuels, it was tempered by a 1.8% increase in the cost of Housing and Water Supply. More relief may be incoming, with expectations of a formal signing of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement on June 19^th and the subsequent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This could support a gradual normalisation of energy costs, as crude oil prices trend downwards.
• While the reduction in fuel prices should provide some relief from rising costs, inflationary risks remain. The government recently approved a 16% fare increase for all Public Passenger Vehicle (PPV) operators, to be implemented over June and July. This adjustment is expected to be a key driver of inflation over the next 12 months. For context, a 19% increase in PPV fares in 2023 resulted in an average 10% rise in the Transport division of the CPI, with the effects persisting for roughly one year. Given this relationship, we expect the latest fare increase to have a similar impact, exerting upward pressure on transportation costs and contributing to higher overall price levels.

(Source: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• Expenditure channelled through the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority (NaRRA) to support Jamaica’s recovery from Hurricane Melissa will mark the largest economic intervention in a generation, with the potential to increase gross domestic product (GDP) by more than 20 per cent.
• This was disclosed by Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, while addressing the 41st annual awards banquet of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC, held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston on Thursday (June 11). Jamaica secured up to US$6.7 billion in international financing to drive national recovery and resilience, following Hurricane Melissa.
• The inflows will be channelled through NaRRA and are being provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank Group (WBG), Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF), and the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB).
• NaRRA will serve as the central coordinating body for post‑hurricane recovery, eliminating bureaucracy, reducing fragmentation, and preventing project delays. It will also function as a hub of technical excellence for project preparation and delivery, ensuring that national plans meet the scale of Jamaica’s ambitions.
• The Prime Minister stressed that the existing bureaucracy is incapable of delivering the scale of transformation required for Jamaica’s recovery from Hurricane Melissa. Against this background, Dr. Holness underscored that the private sector’s role will be critical to the recovery process.
• The Prime Minister added that the sector is essential to building supply chains capable of responding effectively to future crises. He further noted that NaRRA is not solely about government expenditure and urged the private sector to actively utilise the platform.

(Source: JIS)