• Moody’s assigned a Ba3 rating with a positive outlook to the proposed issuance of up to US$385.0Mn in senior secured notes due 2035 by Montego Bay Airport Revenue Finance Limited (MoAir), a special-purpose vehicle. The outlook mirrors that of the Government of Jamaica, with the rating based on preliminary documentation that Moody’s does not expect to materially change before issuance.
• The rating reflects Sangster International Airport’s critical role in Jamaica’s tourism sector, its diversified airline mix, and the relatively strong financial performance of the project compared to regional peers.
• Credit quality is supported by structural protections including offshore cash flow management, limited foreign exchange risk, and a diversified passenger base across the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. Moody’s base case, which assumes modest 1% passenger growth from 2026 onward, still produces an average debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.9x, with a minimum of 1.6x — offering a solid buffer even under stress scenarios.
• Key risks include refinancing risk from the bullet maturity one year after the concession’s expiry in 2034, though this is partly mitigated by revenue protections and expectations of concession renewal.
• There is also transfer risk, as the operator collects revenue before remitting MoAir’s share to offshore accounts, though the government has committed to top up any shortfalls. Additionally, the airport’s location in the hurricane belt exposes it to climate-related disruptions that could affect passenger volumes and operations.
• This proposed transaction follows a similar securitisation for GOJ’s portion of revenue flows from NMIA through, Special Purpose Vehicle, Kingston Airport Revenue Finance Limited 6.75% 2036 bond, which was issued on September 17, 2024. The transaction raised US$480Mn. The proceeds from the note issue was used to fund a revenue account and for KingAir to make a one-time payment to the Government of Jamaica for the repayment of outstanding debt obligations and the financing of certain infrastructure projects related to the modernisation and rehabilitation of roads. Additionally, the GOJ 7.625% 2025 Senior Unsecured Notes matures today, July 9, 2025.

 (Sources: Moody’s Investor Service and NCBCM)

• Deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) recorded a 19.2% decline in pre-tax profits to J$42.2Bn in 2024, a sharp reversal from the 16.1% growth in the previous year, as modest growth of 5.7% in operating income was fully offset by a similar rise in operating expenses.
• The increase in income was primarily driven by a 14.9% rise in interest income from loans, advances and discounts, but this was eroded by higher interest expenses on deposits—reflecting the tighter liquidity environment, more competitive deposit rates—as well as increased provisioning for loan and security losses amid ongoing credit and interest rate uncertainty.
• As a result of the weaker earnings performance, key profitability indicators deteriorated, with return on equity falling by 5.3 percentage points to 11.9% and return on assets declining by 0.7 percentage points to 1.5%, mainly due to a significant drop in net profit margins.
• Despite the downturn in profitability, the DTI sector remained adequately capitalized and solvent at end-2024, as the capital adequacy ratio held steady at 14.6, with all institutions maintaining capital levels above the statutory minimum of 10.0%, supported by Tier 1 capital injections, net issuances, reserve transfers and proportionate growth in risk-weighted assets.
• Liquidity positions remained strong but softened relative to the prior year, as the JMD-Only Liquidity Coverage Ratio declined by 14.1% to 176.4%, reflecting stronger growth in net cash outflows compared to high-quality liquid asset holdings, with fair value losses on these assets also linked to the persistently high interest rate environment.

(Source: Bank of Jamaica)

• The Jamaican economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2025 when compared to Q1 2024, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, (STATIN).
• Increased output in both the Goods-Producing and Services industries, which expanded by 2.0% and 0.8%, respectively, were the primary drivers of the expansion in economic output. Growth in the Goods-Producing sector was broad-based. The Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry recorded the strongest increase at 3.1%, followed by Manufacturing (1.7%).
• The Construction industry rose by 1.4%, while Mining and Quarrying expanded by 0.7%. Within the Services sector, most industries experienced growth, although there were declines in Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair and Installation of Machinery (-0.8%), and Real Estate and Business Activities, which fell by 0.4%.
• Jamaica has adopted the United Nations’ 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA 2008) and the Jamaica Industrial Classification 2016 (JIC 2016). The overhaul rebases constant-price GDP calculations to 2015 from 2007 and incorporates updated data sources, including the 2017 Household Expenditure Survey (HES), to better capture household spending and informal sector activity.
• According to STATIN, the methodological updates resulted in an average increase of 7.8% in historical GDP levels between 2015 and 2023. Overall, the changes are intended to provide a more accurate reflection of Jamaica’s economic structure and improve the comparability of its data with over 100 countries now using the SNA 2008 framework. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has validated Jamaica’s transition, noting improved cross-country comparability. STATIN said a full National Income and Product Report for 2023 will be published by July 31, 2025.
• Looking ahead, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projects that the economy will continue to expand throughout the remainder of FY2025/26. Preliminary indicators point to growth in the June 2025 quarter, supported by stronger activity in tourism and its related services. For the full fiscal year, real GDP is forecasted to recover within the range of 1.0 to 3.0%, largely reflecting gains in the Mining, Tourism, and Construction sectors. The BOJ expects this positive trend to continue into FY2026/27, in line with its previous economic outlook.

(Sources: STATIN & BOJ)

• Hanover is rapidly emerging as Jamaica’s leading tourism parish, driven by several major developments, according to Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett. “You are going to have, `among other things, the first casino tourism facility in the country right here in your parish, in Green Island. In short order, you will have 2,000 rooms at Green Island with just one hotel. Then we are going to build the Viva Wyndham for another 1,000 rooms at Rhodes Hall, and Palladium just outside of Lucea is now expanding with 998 more luxury rooms,” Mr. Bartlett outlined.
• Minister Bartlett also highlighted that the parish has pioneered tourism worker housing. “Hanover has led the way, because you have the first hotel with rooms for the workers of the tourism industry – 500 rooms available in the Princess facility, and 600 houses are going to be built now by Palladium for the workers of the tourism industry,” he stated.
• Regarding cruise tourism, the Minister noted that Hanover is being considered for future port development. “Although we don’t have a cruise port yet in Lucea, Jamaica Vacations Limited (JamVac) Executive Director, Joy Roberts, is part of the team that is looking at how we can increase the number of ports of call across Jamaica. “Very soon, Jamaica could be an itinerary for a cruise ship… from Lucea, to Negril, to Black River, to Port Royal, to Port Antonio, to Ocho Rios, to Falmouth, and back to Montego Bay,” he shared.
• Additionally, he reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to inclusive tourism growth. “The future of tourism in Jamaica must include every parish, every town, and every citizen, not just those in the resort belts but also those communities that are rich with character, culture and commitment this is transformation,” Minister Bartlett declared.

(Source: JIS)

• Barbados’ financial system remains robust and well-capitalised, still it faces mounting threats from global economic uncertainty, rising protectionism and climate risks, the Central Bank warned in its latest Financial Stability Report. Deputy Governor Alwyn Jordan launched the 2024 Financial Stability Report (FSR) during a roundtable panel of financial experts.
• In an overview of the report’s findings, Jordan disclosed that the island’s economic expansion continued in 2024, supported by robust credit growth and stable household and corporate balance sheets. But the deputy governor warned of pending threats to the country’s financial sector.
• “Looking ahead, global economic uncertainty, rising protectionism, and elevated interest rates may pose increased financial stability risks, particularly if they lead to weaker external demand, inflationary pressures, and tighter financing conditions,” he cautioned.
• “Stress testing confirms that the financial system remains sound under baseline conditions but highlights material vulnerabilities in scenarios involving severe external shocks, including tariff escalations and heightened geopolitical instability.
• The Central Bank of Barbados’ latest financial stability assessment highlights a generally resilient financial sector, though with emerging vulnerabilities. Liquidity stress tests show a slight decline in resilience compared to 2023, while capital buffers remain well above regulatory thresholds and credit quality continues to improve. However, profitability has softened due to higher operating costs and fewer write-backs of provisions.
• The Bank flagged growing systemic risks from climate change, particularly from extreme weather events affecting tourism and real estate, and noted rising cyber threats amid accelerating digitalisation. In response, regulators are prioritising enhanced climate risk mapping, improved cyber risk oversight, stronger data collection, and continued monitoring of sectoral exposures, especially in real estate lending, to safeguard overall financial stability.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending bill, which passed Congress on Thursday, July 3, 2025, averts the near-term prospect of a United States (U.S.) government default but makes America’s long-term debt problems even worse.
• Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives approved the bill that will extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, authorise more spending on border security and the military, make steep cuts in Medicare and Medicaid, and add trillions to the government's debt. Trump signed the bill into law on Friday, July 4, 2025.
• As part of the tax package, lawmakers raised the U.S. government's $36.1Tn borrowing limit that it was projected to hit later this summer by $5Tn, a move that will assuage concerns over a possible default on U.S. debt. Analysts had estimated that the so-called X-date, when the Treasury would no longer be able to pay all of its obligations without an increase or suspension of the debt limit, could have occurred at the end of August or in early September.
• Longer term, however, the bill has largely been seen as bad news for the U.S. bond market and the nation's fiscal health. It will add $3.4Tn to the nation's debt over the next decade, nonpartisan analysts have estimated. That would exacerbate concerns over additional bond supply and dwindling demand for U.S. Treasuries that have been a key driver of financial markets in recent months.
• BlackRock warned on Monday, July 7, 2025, that foreign buyers were already souring on American debt. There was a real risk that demand for the $500Bn in debt the U.S. issues every week would fall even more and push borrowing costs higher. "We’ve been highlighting the precarious position of the U.S. government’s indebtedness for some time now, and, if left unchecked, we view debt as the single greatest risk to the 'special status' of the U.S. in financial markets," BlackRock's investment managers said in a note.
• The legislation also stokes economic growth by allowing businesses to fully expense equipment purchases as well as research and development costs and provides other tax breaks. Some investors, however, worry the debt overhang could curtail the economic stimulus in the bill, which Trump refers to as the "One Big Beautiful Bill".

(Source: Reuters)

• The attractiveness of the United States (U.S.) as an investment destination has plunged in the eyes of British business executives who now see opportunities closer to home, a Deloitte survey showed on Monday, July 7, 2025.
• Deloitte's survey of chief financial officers at major British firms showed a net balance of +2% of respondents saw the U.S. as an attractive place to invest, down from +59% in late 2024, shortly before President Donald Trump took office. The survey polled 66 chief financial officers and executives between June 16 and June 29, including 37 listed companies with a combined market value of £386Bn.
• The report tallied with official U.S. data last month that showed inward foreign direct investment fell sharply in early 2025, a drop that coincided with high business uncertainty over Trump's tariff plans. By contrast, Deloitte said British company executives warmed to their market, with the balance for the United Kingdom (U.K.) rising to +13% from -12%, ranking top with India for investment attractiveness.
• Nonetheless, the U.S. remained more attractive than the rest of developed Europe or China, both of which had negative readings in Deloitte's survey. "These results reveal a shift in sentiment with the U.K. now viewed as a leading global investment destination," said Richard Houston, senior partner and chief executive of Deloitte U.K.
• In 2023, Britain was the fourth-biggest direct investor into the United States by ultimate beneficial owner, with a position of $636Bn, according to official U.S. data.
• The Deloitte survey showed British executives reported an uptick in business confidence compared with the previous survey published in April. While still subdued, the optimism index ticked up to -11% from -14% in the previous quarter. That said, British business surveys generally point to weak economic growth - a problem for finance minister Rachel Reeves, who is likely to raise taxes again at the next budget, according to market expectations.

(Source: Reuters)

• Caribbean-American families who regularly send remittances to loved ones across Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the wider Caribbean could face new financial hurdles under a tax and spending bill recently passed by the U.S. Senate.
• The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), approved by the U.S. Senate earlier this week in a narrow 51–50 vote with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaker, introduces a 1% tax on international money transfers sent from the U.S. to recipients abroad. Ultimately, the bill was passed on July 3, meeting President Trump’s July 4 deadline.
• Although intended to target noncitizens, particularly those working in the country without authorisation, the tax would also affect many immigrant families who rely on formal channels, such as banks and money transfer operators, to support relatives abroad.
• Caribbean-American leaders and immigrant advocates warn that the remittance tax could significantly reduce the flow of funds sent through official channels, deepening economic challenges for families who depend on this critical financial lifeline.
• The 1% remittance tax was scaled back from a 3.5% proposal in the House, but U.S. citizens will no longer be exempt (a provision that was in the previous proposal). This means that anyone in the U.S. who sends money abroad would have to pay the tax.
• This could altogether lower the amount sent from the US to the region. For Jamaica, the US is the largest source market for remittances, accounting for around 70% of all remittances. Furthermore, remittances contribute about 15% to 18% of GDP, making them significant for economic growth. As such, any slowdown in remittance transfers could have a negative impact on growth.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly & NCBCM Research)

• Minister of Energy in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), Dr Roodal Moonilal, has indicated that while local oil and gas production has been in decline for the past ten years, it is projected to increase over the next three.
• Moonilal said that drilling programmes within the country needed to be accelerated. On land, exploration is being undertaken in six blocks with licences for acquiring and processing seismic data. Initial feedback has been positive. Onshore production, which in 2015 amounted to 22,616 barrels of oil per day, had declined to 18,005 in 2020 and slipped further to 17,000 this year. Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd, he said, accounts for most of the decline over the last five years.
• He noted that Heritage needs to make better use of its acreage and that a policy being considered was a reassessment of how it partners with lease operators and farmout companies. The company has proposed targeting deeper horizons¹ in its land acreage to improve its oil production, he said.
• This was not previously possible as Heritage did not have rights for its Cruze Horizon Block, Guapo Oropouche Brighton Horizon Block, Herrera Horizon Block and Mayaro/Guayaguayare Horizon Block. Through ministry negotiations, the licences for these blocks are being amended to include rights to deeper horizons, and in return, Heritage has committed to the drilling of one exploration well in each of the blocks. These wells will range from 5,500 feet true vertical depth to 13,500 feet true vertical depth over the next three years.
• Like oil, natural gas production has also been on the decline since 2015, falling from 3.8Bn cubic feet in that year to 2.54Bn cubic feet per day currently. He noted several projects, including bpTT's Cypre Phase 1 development, which came onstream with a peak production of 350 million standard cubic feet per day. While these are welcome, they will likely be combating natural decline from maturing reservoirs. Nonetheless, Moonilal noted that the outlook for oil in the short to medium term is positive.

^{______________________
1}In the oil and gas industry, "horizon" most commonly refers to a geological layer or boundary that can be identified in seismic data and is known to contain hydrocarbons.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• The Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) issued a non-binding advisory opinion on July 3, 2025, urging member states to cooperate on climate action and avoid measures that undermine environmental protections. The court, which has jurisdiction over 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries, emphasised that states must regulate and monitor corporate greenhouse gas emissions and require companies to adopt effective climate measures.
• The opinion also called on states to discourage greenwashing and undue corporate influence, and to legislate mandatory corporate due diligence on human rights and climate risks throughout value chains. States must set binding, ambitious emissions targets with concrete timelines, and climate cooperation must go beyond transboundary harm to include a full spectrum of mitigation and adaptation efforts.
• Maria Antonia Tigre of Columbia Law School noted that while non-binding, IACHR opinions often influence domestic courts and are cited in contentious cases. She referenced the court’s 2024 ruling ordering Peru to compensate a mining town, based on a 2017 advisory opinion recognising a healthy environment as a human right.
• The opinion aligns with a growing global trend in climate litigation. It also parallels Vanuatu’s request for the UN’s top court to acknowledge the harm caused by climate change and define states' legal obligations. The IACHR opinion noted that climate litigation is an "emerging field" but also an increasingly essential tool for holding states and companies accountable for climate change and obligations.

(Source: Reuters)