• As both energy prices and inflation fears pop, expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts are sliding, reflecting a shift in market sentiment as inflation risks resurface. Traders in recent days have abandoned hopes of an early summer easing from the central bank, a change in thinking that coincided with the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran and a burst in oil prices to around $100 a barrel.
• Before the conflict, the market anticipation had been for a quarter percentage point rate reduction in June 2026, likely another one in September 2026, and an outside chance of even three, depending on how the economics played out, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch calculations, highlighting how expectations for policy easing were previously stronger.
• Much of the thinking behind that approach was that a softening labour market, moderating inflation and a new dovish chair coming on board in May 2026 would push the Fed into an easing posture. However, at least as long as the Iran drama plays out, the expectations now are that fighting inflation will remain paramount.
• A higher inflation path will make it harder for the Fed to start cutting soon, and as such, Goldman Sachs officially adjusted its rate forecast, pushing back the next cut to September from June, though it still thinks the Fed could lower once more before the end of 2026.
• Additionally, traders in the fed funds futures market have taken even a September cut off the table and now see only one coming, in December, according to the CME gauge, with no additional cuts priced in until well into 2027 or even into the early part of 2028, despite expectations surrounding the arrival of a new Fed chair.
• The Fed will get another look at inflation data when the Commerce Department releases the personal consumption expenditures price index data for January 2026, while the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee issues its next rate decision on March 18, 2026, and traders are assigning a nearly 100% probability to the committee staying on hold.

(Source: CNBC)

• Global oil markets got a theoretical safety valve Wednesday when the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil, while the U.S. said it would tap 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower energy costs. While this was seen as an unprecedented move from the IEA and U.S. administration, according to markets it was not enough as oil prices are surging once again, with Brent crude topping $100 per barrel on Thursday, March 12, 2026.
• The energy picture is complicated by another development as Iran continued to send large amounts of crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz to China even as the war between U.S.-Israel and Iran has jeopardised broader supplies through the critical waterway.
• Notwithstanding, the war that continues to rage in Iran has not distracted President Donald Trump from his trade war. The U.S. administration on Wednesday launched trade probes into more than a dozen countries to replace the reciprocal tariffs, which were recently ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. The main targets are the EU, China, Mexico, alongside a slew of other nations, including Switzerland, Norway, Japan, India and South Korea.
• In other words, energy markets are volatile, supply chains are tightening, and trade tensions are heating up again. Meanwhile, global equities remain sensitive to the energy moves. European stocks are expected to open lower, while U.S. futures are also pointing to another negative session.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jamaica’s Net International Reserves (NIR) increased to US$6.80Bn at the end of February 2026, up US$72.51Mn (+1.1%) relative to January 2026 and 24.3% higher than February 2025. The month-on-month improvement was largely driven by an expansion in foreign assets, along with a slight decline in foreign liabilities.
• Total foreign assets increased by US$72.44Mn to US$6.82Bn. The growth was primarily supported by a US$69.73Mn increase in Currency & Deposits, alongside gains in Securities (US$16.17Mn). These increases were partially offset by a US$13.26Mn decline in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) holdings and a US$0.19Mn decline in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Reserve Position.
• Reflecting a slight reduction in obligations to the IMF, foreign liabilities declined marginally by US$0.07Mn to US$12.98Mn, which further strengthened the overall reserve position.
• At its current level, Jamaica’s NIR cover approximately 55.9 weeks of goods imports and 36.2 weeks of goods and services imports, well above the international adequacy benchmark of 12 weeks. The reserves also represent 156.47% of the IMF’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA)^[1] metric, reinforcing the country’s strong external liquidity position.
• Finance and Public Service Minister, Hon. Fayval Williams, at the opening of the 2026/2027 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, March 10, 2025, emphasised the importance of maintaining strong reserve buffers, noting that the NIR plays a critical role in shielding Jamaica from external economic shocks, including global commodity price volatility and geopolitical uncertainties. Maintaining robust reserves ensures the country has the foreign currency needed to finance imports while supporting stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
• The continued strength in reserves is being supported by steady inflows from remittances and the recent uptick in external financing, which continues to provide the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) with the FX required to manage market volatility and maintain confidence in the Jamaican dollar.

(Sources: BOJ, JIS and NCBCM Research)

^[1] The IMF's Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric is a risk-weighted, composite formula used to determine if a country's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to handle potential balance of payments shocks. It calculates an adequate reserve level by covering a percentage of short-term debt, other portfolio liabilities, broad money, and exports.

• On March 10, 2026, in a corporate disclosure made on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited (KNTYR) advised the market that the Company has been notified that a group of principal shareholders representing in excess of 51% of the voting rights of the Company intends to undertake a restructuring of their shareholdings.
• The proposed restructuring contemplates the consolidation of those shareholdings into a newly established United States-based holding company, Kintyre Holdings International Inc., which is intended to serve as an international parent entity supporting the next phase of growth and strategic expansion of Kintyre.
• Following the restructuring, the new parent entity may pursue a potential listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act framework, which provides regulatory accommodations for emerging growth companies.
• The JOBS Act, enacted in the U.S. in 2012, was designed to encourage capital formation by emerging growth companies. The legislation allows companies with less than US$1 billion in annual revenue to access U.S. public capital markets with scaled regulatory requirements during the early years following their listing, including confidential filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and phased regulatory compliance requirements.
• Management highlighted that access to deeper U.S. capital markets and greater investor liquidity could support Kintyre’s expansion across Caribbean and Latin American markets, while maintaining its operational base in Jamaica. The company also emphasised that the restructuring will not change ultimate beneficial ownership or control, and remains subject to customary legal and administrative processes, with further updates to be provided as developments occur.

(Source: JSE)

• Ten groups, including several Chinese companies, have submitted proposals to build Guyana’s planned ammonia and urea fertilizer plant at Wales, according to tender opening results released last week.
• The proposals were invited by the Government of Guyana through the Office of the Prime Minister under the Gas-to-Energy Task Force for Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) services for the Guyana Ammonia and Urea Plant (GAUP).
• The government had previously announced that the GAUP will be developed as a public-private partnership and will use up to 20 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from the second phase of the Wales Gas-to-Energy project.
• Once completed, the facility is expected to produce about 300,000 tons of fertilizer annually. Authorities have said the plant is intended to supply both the domestic and regional markets, including the Caribbean and northern Brazil, with the aim of lowering fertilizer prices and supporting agricultural productivity.
• The proposed plant site lies east of the combined-cycle power plant and natural gas liquids (NGL) facility currently under construction at Wales as part of the first phase of the Gas-to-Energy project.
• Lean gas for the fertilizer facility is expected to be supplied by Guyana Power and Gas Inc. (GPGI), the state-owned company responsible for handling and distributing natural gas delivered to shore from offshore fields.
• According to the government, the fertilizer plant is targeted to become operational by 2028, in line with the anticipated completion of the second phase of the Gas-to-Energy project.

(Source: OIL Now)

• While Americans are warily eyeing prices at the pump as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz grind to a halt amid the threat of Iranian attacks on vessels, oil is far from the only product for which the world economy is heavily dependent that passes through the waterway. From the metals market to agriculture and autos, a de facto closure of the strait would ripple through business sectors and both the U.S. and world economy.
• Aluminium is one of the biggest non-petroleum commerce casualties of the U.S.-Iran war. In 2025, the Middle East accounted for roughly 21% of unwrought aluminium imports and 13% of wrought aluminium imports, and those percentages have been rising. In addition, the Gulf is a major supplier of aluminium, and disruptions could tighten supply chains for advanced manufacturing. Aluminium prices are already rising, and further disruption could increase input costs for automotive, aerospace, and construction manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe.
• Fertiliser represents one of the biggest downstream risks because roughly one-third of global fertiliser trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, including large volumes of nitrogen exports. Prices at the New Orleans fertiliser hub for urea have already risen from $475/metric ton to $680/metric ton, which comes at a challenging time for the planting window in the Midwest for soy and corn. If those shipments are blocked during the spring planting season, it could wreak havoc on food inflation.
• Petrochemical inputs, plastics, rubber, electronics, batteries, pharmaceuticals, and sugar are among other inputs and sectors facing supply chain stress. If Strait of Hormuz disruptions force vessel rerouting, inland port disruption can escalate quickly as the initial ocean impact may take 10–14 days to appear, but the real pressure typically hits within 2–5 weeks as diverted containers arrive in clusters, terminal congestion rises, and drayage demand outpaces truck and chassis availability.
• Disrupted trade lanes also reduce empty container availability, tightening export capacity in other markets, including North America. For retailers, all of this means higher inbound logistics costs and potential inventory delays, which often translate into higher shelf prices or tighter margins across groceries, consumer goods, and imported products.

(Source: CNCB)

• The U.S. budget deficit surpassed $1Tn for the fiscal year through February 2026. However, it was sharply lower than the same period a year earlier, Treasury Department data showed Wednesday, reflecting a combination of rising government revenues and relatively controlled spending.
• Outlays exceeded receipts by $308Bn in February, roughly in line with the deficit recorded in the same month a year ago, signalling that monthly spending and revenue patterns remain consistent despite broader fiscal pressures.
• For the fiscal year to date, the deficit totalled $1.004Tn, about 12% lower than the comparable period in 2025, as government revenues rose faster than spending, highlighting the impact of increased collections and economic activity on narrowing the fiscal gap.
• Helping narrow the gap was a sharp increase in tariff collections. Customs duties totalled $151 Bn through the first five months of the fiscal year, up about $113 Bn, or 294%, from a year earlier, underscoring the significant contribution of international trade measures to federal revenues.
• Corporate tax revenue also declined sharply, falling $27Bn, or 17%, from a year earlier, and elevated interest rates continued to weigh on the federal fiscal picture, with net interest payments on the nearly $39Tn national debt totalling $79Bn in February, making it one of the largest single components of federal outlays alongside Social Security, income security, and health care programs.

(Source: CNBC)

• Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, recently announced that all hotels are expected to be fully operational by December 2026, following the devastation caused to the sector by Hurricane Melissa. While early stakeholder assessments had suggested that only about 80% of rooms would be available, the recovery outlook has since improved.
• “The energy and the ambitions have grown, and the reality now is that we will have all our 33,000 rooms available and active by December 2026,” Minister Bartlett said. Additionally, owing to the sector’s faster-than-expected hurricane recovery, the projected decline in gross annual earnings has improved from 6% to 3% for fiscal year 2026/27. Gross earnings are now projected at US$3.228Bn, representing a 3% decline from US$3.327Bn recorded in FY2025/26.
• Similarly, for fiscal year 2026/27, total visitor arrivals are expected to fall by a marginal 1%, to 3.741 million. The anticipated arrivals will include 2.278 million stopover tourists and 1.463 million cruise passengers, representing a 14.8% increase in cruise traffic compared to last year, according to the tourism minister.
• That said, no official tourism data for 2026 has yet been released by the Jamaica Tourism Board (JTB). As such, the projections for visitor arrivals, room capacity recovery and sector earnings are based on preliminary government statements and stakeholder assessments rather than confirmed tourism statistics.
• These estimates are supported by broader policy developments, including strengthened bilateral engagement with the United States (U.S.) and the recent improvement in the U.S. Department of State travel advisory for Jamaica from Level 3 to Level 2, which is expected to support the recovery of the hurricane-affected tourism sector.

(Sources: JIS and NCBCM Research)

• Brazil's government faces an added challenge as it prepares to update its economic forecasts, with market volatility and uncertainty linked to the conflict in ​Iran complicating projections that underpin this year's budget management.
• The Finance Ministry is expected within two weeks to release its fresh forecasts for 2026 GDP growth and inflation, inputs for the government's bimonthly revenue and expenditure report.
• The first report ​of the year, due by March 24, will reassess revenues and spending ​against the approved budget and determine whether a spending freeze is needed ⁠to comply with fiscal rules. "If the war shows no signs of ending and refineries ​or production are disrupted or halted, there will be medium-term damage," the source added, ​citing concerns about inflation and monetary policy.
• This year's budget assumed GDP growth of 2.4%, inflation at 3.6%, Brent crude averaging about $65 a barrel, and an exchange rate of 5.76 reais to the dollar. However, since the ​conflict erupted less than two weeks ago, oil prices have swung sharply. It briefly neared $120 ​a barrel this week before retreating to about $83 on Tuesday. Brazil's Treasury said last week that oil prices of up to $85 a barrel could have positive fiscal effects, but warned that levels above $100 could begin to generate real inflationary pressure.
• Oil is Brazil's top export and higher prices boost ​government revenue through royalties ​and dividends from ⁠state-controlled oil company Petrobras. However, concerns about inflation stemming from the conflict have strengthened bets that the central bank may begin its long-awaited easing ​cycle more cautiously than previously expected, with a 25-basis-point (bps) cut rather ​than 50 bps.
• Higher ⁠average interest rates would push up Brazil's debt burden, as nearly half of the country's large public debt is linked to the benchmark Selic rate, which has been held steady ⁠since ​July at 15%, its highest in nearly two decades. A ​prolonged conflict would likely worsen debt dynamics, offsetting the direct revenue gains from higher oil prices, acknowledged a ​third economic team source.

(Source: Reuters)

• Rising global LNG prices amid escalating Middle East tensions could boost export revenues for Trinidad and Tobago, according to Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal, though the country faces constraints in expanding natural gas production in the near term.
• As a net LNG exporter, Trinidad and Tobago is considered more resilient than LNG-importing economies during global supply disruptions, since it is not directly exposed to physical disruptions affecting Gulf producers such as Qatar or key shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
• However, the country remains linked to global LNG price movements through the restructured Atlantic LNG pricing formula, which references international benchmarks including Title Transfer Facility (TTF), National Balancing Point (NBP), Japan Korea Marker (JKM), and Brent crude, meaning geopolitical risk premiums in futures markets can raise realised export prices.
• While higher LNG prices create potential revenue upside, Trinidad and Tobago cannot quickly increase export volumes because upstream gas production constraints and existing contractual obligations limit immediate supply expansion, meaning most near-term gains would be price-driven rather than volume-driven.
• Energy analyst Anthony Paul noted that higher LNG prices may be partially offset by rising shipping and insurance costs, as global conflict disrupts trade flows and tightens the supply of LNG carriers, although Trinidad and Tobago’s routes avoid the Strait of Hormuz and may face smaller insurance premiums.
• Former prime minister Stuart Young warned the conflict could push up global oil and fuel prices, particularly as tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and refined products move daily, potentially driving inflation and higher living costs globally, including in Trinidad and Tobago.

(Source: Trinidad Express)