• Following two consecutive rate pauses in March and May 2026, and as inflation risks emanate from the ongoing U.S. Iran Conflict, research firm Fitch BMI expects the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) to continue holding its policy rates at 5.50%.
• The US-Iran conflict was a key consideration in the BOJ’s May 2026 rate pause at 5.5%, as it expects the conflict to push headline inflation above the upper bound of its target range through Q3 2026 before moderating as global tensions ease later this year. This would align with BMI’s expectations. The BOJ also noted a rise in inflation expectations to 7.1% (up from 6.5% in April), heightened depreciation risks for the Jamaican dollar, El Niño’s impact on local agriculture and elevated demand stemming from ongoing Hurricane Melissa recovery efforts.
• BMI anticipates that Jamaica’s inflation will rise faster than in previous months. Post-Melissa inflation was well below the agency’s forecast, peaking at 4.5% in December. However, headline inflation began to creep up in March and April (4.3% in both), alongside rising core inflation. The research firm anticipates that prices will continue to rise in the near term, with inflation projected to end the year at 6.5%. This view is underscored by the recent decision to remove the cap on PetroJam’s fuel price increases, which will see domestic energy and transport costs rise in the coming months. Rising inflation expectations suggest an increased risk of price pressures spreading into the broader economy.
• Consequently, BMI expects the BOJ will maintain its current policy stance to contain inflation and anchor inflation expectations, with the policy rate expected to remain at 5.50% through year-end. This view is conditioned on Fitch BMI’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) team’s current expectation that the conflict will be resolved by mid-June.
• BMI also believes that while surging oil import costs place headwinds on the Jamaican currency, the BOJ's position to maintain its monetary policy stance and decision to "continue special measures to preserve stability in the foreign exchange market" would help offset more severe depreciation. Consequently, it anticipates the Jamaican dollar should finish 2026 at JMD162/USD. This will be supported by the Central Bank's robust reserve levels, which have grown by 2.6% since the start of the year to US$6.45Bn.
• Still, should tensions and global energy prices remain elevated for longer than expected, inflation could rise more sharply as inflation expectations climb further. This, in turn, would create risk of a more hawkish stance by the BOJ, with the potential for the policy rate to rise to help maintain hard-won macroeconomic stability.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has issued a Financial Holding Company (FHC) licence to Barita Financial Group Limited (BFGL), bringing the Group under the supervisory framework of the Banking Services Act (BSA), 2014.
• Specifically, the BSA mandates that where a group of financial services entities includes a deposit-taking institution and another financial services entity, the FHC structure is the regulatory architecture that allows for appropriate consolidated supervision, clearer lines of accountability, stronger group-wide risk management, and more effective governance across banking, securities, and related financial activities.
• It provides the framework through which the regulator can assess the Financial Group on a consolidated basis while ensuring that growth, innovation, and diversification are supported by disciplined oversight at the parent company level.
• This milestone builds on a court-sanctioned composite Scheme of Arrangement (the Schemes), the implementation of which was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders of Barita Investments Limited (Barita) and Cornerstone United Holdings Jamaica Limited at meetings held in January 2025. Consequently, this led to a reorganisation, which took effect on April 11, 2025, where BFGL became the holding company for Barita, Barita Unit Trusts Management Company Limited, and Cornerstone Trust & Merchant Bank Limited. The reorganisation established the corporate foundation necessary for the subsequent grant of the FHC Licence and was necessary for the Group to comply with the requirements of the BSA.
• Mark Myers, CD, Chairman of Barita and Director of BFGL, described the FHC licence as a major milestone that recognises the disciplined work done across the business to meet elevated standards of group-wide oversight. He noted that the new FHC structure positions the Financial Group to serve clients more effectively across its entire ecosystem.
• Barita’s stock price declined by 4.8% year-to-date, closing at $68.59 as at Tuesday, May 26, 2026. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.3x, which is higher than the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.1x

(Sources: JSE &NCBCM Research)

• A $228 million increase in infrastructure investment, $188 million rise in government spending and a $107 million gain in exports helped drive economic growth in The Bahamas during 2025, according to the latest Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product released by the Bahamas National Statistical Institute.
• The report showed real growth across several major sectors, with investment activity, public expenditure and tourism-linked exports emerging as key contributors to economic expansion compared to 2024.
• Measured through the Expenditure Approach - which captures the contribution of final consumption, investments, exports and imports - GDP data indicated strong gains in gross fixed capital formation, or investments, which increased by 8.0% year-over-year.
• Building and infrastructure investments led that growth, rising approximately $228 million, or 9.0%, reflecting continued spending on construction and development projects. Investment in transport equipment recorded one of the strongest increases, growing by $83 million, or 50.0%, compared to the previous year.
• The figures point to sustained capital spending as a major driver of economic activity, with infrastructure development continuing to play an important role in broader growth trends. Government expenditure also expanded significantly. General government final consumption increased by $188 million, or 9%, in 2025 compared to 2024. According to the report, government consumption is measured by the sum of costs, including wages and salaries, depreciation, and purchases of goods and services.
• Meanwhile, exports of goods and services rose by $107 million, or 2% over the same period. The category includes tourism activity encompassing both stopover and cruise visitor spending, which represents the bulk of total exports and remains a critical pillar of the Bahamian economy.
• The advance estimates suggest that investment activity, public sector spending and tourism continued to underpin economic expansion in 2025, with infrastructure projects and visitor-related expenditure remaining central to overall growth.

(Source: Eyewitness News)

• The fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's effective closure of the strait and the corresponding US naval blockade on Iranian ports pushing China and India to source crude from suppliers seen as safer and more reliable. Brazil has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries, though analysts say it cannot replace the Middle East as Asia's main oil supplier. Kpler's Sumit Ritolia noted that Brazil's medium-sweet pre-salt grades fit many Asian refinery slates, and Asian buyers are competing for barrels not exposed to Gulf shipping risk.
• Asian countries imported about 1.2 million bpd of crude from Brazil in 2025, rising to roughly 1.8 million bpd between January and May 2026, according to Kpler. Brazilian production averaged 3.77 million bpd in 2025, rising to an average of 4.06 million bpd between January and May, with 4.11 million bpd in May.
• Since March 2026, Brazil's production has increased only marginally by around 50,000 to 100,000 bpd, indicating limited short-term flexibility to rapidly ramp up supply. The real difference is Petrobras redirecting exports toward Asia, where refiners are paying more for crude that does not pass through the Gulf. More than 60% of Petrobras exports are now heading to China, while exports to the US have reportedly fallen to zero from about 60,000 bpd in March.
• The OECD reported in March that rising crude prices are expected to support Brazil's trade balance, and the country's Ministry of Finance estimates that Brent crude reaching $100 per barrel would generate revenue equivalent to almost 1% of GDP above current 2026 budget projections.
• Chinese imports of Brazilian crude averaged about 1.316 million bpd between January and May 2026, compared with about 704,000 bpd in 2025, per Kpler. In dollar terms, the Brazil-China Business Council shows the value of Brazil's crude exports to China surged by almost 95% to $7.2bn in the first quarter of this year.
• Indian imports of Brazilian crude averaged about 238,000 bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000 bpd in 2025, and Brazil became India's fourth-largest crude supplier in April. India's demand is being driven by rising domestic fuel consumption – unlike China, which has pivoted more heavily to EVs – and by less flexibility to absorb a prolonged disruption through strategic reserves, giving refiners a stronger incentive to keep crude flowing where supplies are available and profitable.

(Source: Aljazeera News)

• United States (U.S.) consumer confidence eased in May as worries about inflation linked to the war in Iran intensified and households' views of the labour market were largely pessimistic, though they anticipated an improvement by the end of this year. The marginal drop in confidence reported by the Conference Board on Tuesday, May 26, 2026, contrasted starkly with the release last week of the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, which showed consumer sentiment ‌plumbing record lows in May.
• Still, it was the latest sign of growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's handling of the economy. Trump won the 2024 presidential election in large part because of his promise to lower inflation, but U.S. consumers have faced higher prices, first from his sweeping import tariffs and recently from the U.S.-backed war with Iran. A Reuters/Ipsos survey last week showed Trump's presidential approval rating fell to nearly its lowest level since he returned to the White House in January 2025.
• The darkening mood poses a challenge for Trump's Republican Party as it seeks to retain control of the U.S. Congress in the midterm elections in November. The ⁠Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slipped to 93.1 this month from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would drop to 92.0 from the previously reported 92.8 in April. The labour market has a big influence on the index, while the University of Michigan survey is more sensitive to gasoline prices.
• The decline in confidence occurred among consumers under the age of 35 as well as those 55 years and older. Consumers in the 35-54 age group were slightly more optimistic this month. Households with annual incomes ranging from $15,000 to $39,999 experienced a sharp decline in confidence. Of note, lower-income households have been disproportionately impacted by gasoline prices, which have risen more than 50% since the war in late February.

• Confidence was higher among consumers with annual incomes above $100,000, likely reflecting the rise in net worth due to a stock market rally. Though the ‌correlation between confidence ⁠and consumer spending is weak, economists cautioned that rising gasoline prices could pull spending from other goods and services. Higher inflation is also expected to curb demand. Finally, the Conference Board noted that consumers' write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew toward pessimism.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain on Tuesday, May 26, 2026, targeted Russia-linked cryptocurrency platforms, banks and financial networks ‌that it said were used to bypass sanctions, freezing their assets and barring United Kingdom (U.K.) firms from processing payments and holding correspondent banking ties.
• The measures focus on what London described as "shadow financial systems" underpinning Russia's war economy, including the Kremlin-backed A7 network, which it said had been used to route funds, finance procurement, and exploit foreign banking systems to evade restrictions.
• The package also targets crypto exchanges and entities operating Russia-focused platforms, including a ⁠Kyrgyz bank and multiple firms registered in jurisdictions including Georgia and the United Arab Emirates, alongside individuals tied to the network.
• Britain said it was "tracking down and shutting off" payment routes fuelling Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. In a statement, the Russian embassy in London said the anti-Russian sanctions were unlawful and futile. "Russia has long since adapted to external pressure and will not alter its course on account of London’s whims," the Russian embassy added. "The consequences of these multiplying restrictions will primarily affect the citizens, businesses, and reputation of the United Kingdom itself."
• "We will continue to act fast and decisively, alongside our allies, to expose, disrupt and dismantle these networks, and ensure those ‌enabling Russia's ⁠aggression face consequences," foreign minister Yvette Cooper said in a statement.
• The move comes nearly a week after Britain said it would defer a ban on imports of diesel and jet fuel derived ⁠from Russian crude refined in third countries to ease supply pressures, a decision it said was a phased approach rather than any easing of sanctions.

(Source: Reuters)

• A Bill to facilitate the withdrawal of $11.4Bn annually from the National Housing Trust (NHT), to provide budgetary support for the Government over the next five years, was passed in the House of Representatives on May 19. The National Housing Trust (Amendment) (Special Provisions) Act 2026 was piloted by Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams.
• In her remarks, Mrs. Williams noted that in 2013, under the Extended Fund Facility with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Government of the day obtained contributions towards fiscal consolidation from the NHT for $11.4Bn. She noted that this was achieved by way of an amendment to the National Housing Trust Act, the provisions of which came to an end in March 2017.
• She added that given the need for further budgetary support for the Government’s economic programme, a further amendment of the NHT Act was undertaken in August 2017 to facilitate the continuation of annual transfers from the NHT for the fiscal years 2017/2018 to 2020/2021, and again in December 2020 to facilitate a further continuation of annual transfers for the fiscal years 2021/2022 to 2025/2026. Mrs. Williams stated that 2025 was an unprecedented year for the country, with the passage and impact of Hurricane Melissa on October 28, 2025.
• She further noted that the NHT continues to maintain a strong asset position, with assets exceeding liabilities by approximately 1.8 times over the medium term. It is expected that the NHT will be able to continue to operate profitably while seeking to expand access to housing.
• While the Government opted to continue this revenue measure, the rationale is that the discontinuation of this measure during the current economic climate, which has been significantly altered by the passage of Hurricane Melissa, would result in a significant falloff in government revenues

(Source: JIS)

• Jamaica has received the second disbursement of funds from the European Union (EU) to support the implementation of the Digital Transitioning Programme for Jamaica (Digital Jamaica). This latest handover brings total disbursements under the Programme to J$613.5Mn(€3.41Mn), to date.
• The Programme supports the implementation of Jamaica’s National Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Policy and aims to expand inclusive access to and use of ICT, in pursuit of the country’s goal of becoming a digital economy and society.
• The financing agreement was finalised on July 25, 2023, for implementation over 48 months, totalling J$1.7Bn(€9.5Mn). It is being executed under the budget support modality and comprises three fixed tranches and three variable tranches. Speaking during a Handover Ceremony at the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service in Kingston on Thursday (May 21), State Minister Hon. Zavia Mayne emphasised that digital transformation is vital to national competitiveness, economic resilience, and social inclusion.
• Mr. Mayne outlined that the Programme comprises three components, focusing on ICT connectivity, digital skills in education, and the digital transformation of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).
• He further noted that the final component supports the digital transformation of MSMEs through the Jamaica Business Development Corporation (JBDC) and its network of small business development centres. “MSMEs will receive support and training to improve digitisation, digitalisation and the adoption of new technologies. This is essentially important for improving productivity, innovation and business competitiveness,” Mr. Mayne stated
• He emphasised that, collectively, the Programme will enhance broadband connectivity, strengthen digital learning, build digital competencies among educators, and support greater technology adoption by Jamaican businesses, while creating meaningful opportunities for citizens to participate in the digital economy.
• The Digital Jamaica Programme supports the implementation of the National ICT Policy across the Ministry of Education, Skills, Youth and Information; the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce; and the Ministry of Energy, Transport and Telecommunications.

(Source: JIS)

• Guyana is seen as a more attractive oil investment destination as Venezuela works through a sovereign debt restructuring process that analysts say could take years to complete, according to an S&P Global analysis published on May 20. 
• The report examined Venezuela’s plans to restructure sovereign debt and obligations tied to state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), and how they could gradually improve investor confidence in the country’s oil sector, despite ongoing challenges. 
• Analysts noted that Venezuela remains among the world’s highest-risk oil and gas investment jurisdictions, with Texas-based energy attorney Ted Borrego saying major international operators may continue favouring more stable opportunities such as Guyana.  “The big guys? There are so many other places that they can make money that going back to Venezuela is going to be a real stretch… There are a lot of places in Latin America that are much more attractive, e.g., Guyana, just next door, or in the rest of the world that don’t have the problems inherent in Venezuela,” Borrego said. 
• John Haley, a partner at Nelson Mullins law firm, said the process of restoring investor confidence and restructuring debt will likely happen at the same time rather than sequentially. “Can everything be repaid before operators go back in? It’s just not feasible… So, I think it’s something that needs to be done on parallel tracks,” Haley said. 
• However, Philip Luck, director of the economics program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said debt restructuring alone will not be enough to unlock large-scale investment. “Venezuela still faces significant challenges in its physical infrastructure, human capital, and the governance of both the oil industry and the country at large. The sovereign’s liabilities are likely close to 200.0% of GDP. Past precedent puts the average time that restructurings of similar scale take at around 30 months,” Luck said.
• According to S&P Global Ratings analysts, Venezuela’s external debt burden is estimated at between US$150.0Bn and US$200.0Bn.
• The analysis noted that Venezuela’s oil production averaged 1.13 million barrels per day (b/d) in April, up 4.8% from March. PDVSA is targeting an output of 1.37 million b/d by the end of 2026 while updating production participation contracts under a revised hydrocarbons law. 
• In contrast, Guyana has emerged as a more stable and predictable oil investment destination, with offshore developments advancing under stable fiscal terms and without the debt, sanctions, and governance challenges facing Venezuela. 

(Sources: OILNow & S&P Global)

• Costa Rica is bracing for an extended El Niño event that meteorologists now expect to grip the country from June through the second half of 2026 and persist into the early months of 2027, prompting authorities to activate a national contingency plan covering water supply, electricity, agriculture and wildfire risk.
• The Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN) has escalated its El Niño classification from “surveillance” to “advisory,” meaning forecasters now consider the development of the phenomenon highly likely rather than possible. The updated outlook is notably more severe than projections released as recently as April. The IMN now estimates rainfall deficits of up to 50 percent in some regions and temperatures running as much as 2 degrees Celsius above normal, compared with earlier estimates of 10.0% to 30.0% rainfall reduction and warming of 0.5 to 1 degree.
• “Those deficit conditions are now expected to be worse than they were a month ago,” Karina Hernández, head of the IMN’s Climatology Unit and director of the country’s ENOS Phenomenon Consultative Commission, said. She added that under the current outlook, “we would be under the effect of that El Niño throughout the second half of 2026 and possibly extending into the beginning of 2027.”
• The IMN forecast aligns well with the latest from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which puts the probability of El Niño persisting through February 2027 at 96.0%. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble favours El Niño developing within the coming month and continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026 to 2027.
• The economic implications are already on the central bank’s radar. Banco Central de Costa Rica President Róger Madrigal López has indicated the country should expect an inflationary shock in early 2027 driven by El Niño’s impact on agricultural output and food prices. Reduced precipitation typically squeezes domestic production of staple goods, drives up the cost of livestock feed, and pressures the basic consumer basket.

(Source: Tico Times)