• Despite the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada, we expect Canada's current account to shift to a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2026, as rising oil prices boost export receipts, before returning to a slight deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 2027 as prices begin to normalise. The US-Iran war has driven oil prices sharply higher, materially boosting Canada's exports, trade balance and external position through a sustained improvement in the country's terms of trade. With crude oil prices settling above USD100 per barrel in September 2026 and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remaining unresolved, high energy prices are likely to continue supporting Canada's external position through surging energy exports in the near and medium term.
• Furthermore, a series of trade deals and the development of export infrastructure will help Canada diversify its export profile, offsetting some of the near-term pain caused by the ongoing trade war with the United States. However, rising energy prices could weigh on external demand, creating a medium-term headwind for Canada's exporters despite near-term tailwinds. Looking to 2027, BMI expects Canada’s current account to return to a modest deficit as elevated oil prices normalise and trade disruptions weigh on exports.
• Canada’s current account and goods trade balances returned to surplus in Q2 2026, driven by a 27.4% q-o-q surge in energy exports. Strong goods exports also outpaced import growth, lifting the trade surplus to CAD12.2Bn, the highest since Q3 2008. Automotive exports rose by 19.3% q-o-q, while the current account posted its largest surplus since Q4 2005.
• Furthermore, with Canadian energy exports not subject to US tariffs, these crucial exports have continued to rise. Also, while the United States remains the primary customer for Canada's energy producers, its share of Canadian energy exports fell to 82.7%, down from 90.6% in July 2024, while China imported an increasing share alongside rising exports to the rest of the world, a shift likely to endure as Canada pivots from its southern neighbour.
• The USMCA should continue to support North American trade by keeping most trade tariff-free, providing a boost to exports, investment, and overall trade. However, rising US-Canada trade tensions, renewed tariffs, and the lack of USMCA exemptions for some Canadian exports are increasing risks to the agreement.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Following a 2-month delay, Express Catering released its Audited Results for the year ending May 31, 2026, and earnings are down 28.8% to US$2.68Mn. The decline reflects a steep revenue contraction that outpaced cost containment.
• Weighed down by lower throughput at its Sangster International Airport (SIA) concession, revenues fell 26.9% to US$18.92Mn. Data from Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), which operates both Jamaican airports, show SIA saw 1.93Mn passengers between November 2025 and May 2026, down from 3.01Mn in the corresponding period a year earlier. That is a 35.6% decline, with the steepest falls in November (-73.4%) and December 2025 (-43.8%) immediately after Hurricane Melissa.
• Cost of sales declined at a faster pace, down 34.4% to US$4.71Mn. As a result, gross profit fell a more modest 24.0% to US$14.21Mn and gross margin widened by 288 basis points to 75.1%. This was likely due to inherently lower sales volumes and better inventory management.
• Total operating expenses (Opex) fell 17.7% to US$9.74Mn, broadly tracking the decline in sales, with administrative expenses down 25.4% to US$5.98Mn. Declines in employee benefits (-25.5%) to US$2.42Mn, as permanent headcount was reduced to 250 from 286, lease expense (-35.6%) to US$969,815, and franchise fees (-27.0%) to US$588,770 were the primary OPEX drivers. Both of the latter two are variable costs tied to sales, meaning they contracted alongside the weaker topline.
• Depreciation and amortisation declined marginally (-1.5%), while promotional expenses rose 13.4% to US$51,759. However, Operating profit fell 34.8% to US$4.47Mn, given the sharp decline in the topline.
• Below the operating line, other income rose sharply to US$1.71Mn from US$19,198, mainly reflecting interest income of US$1.08Mn against US$11,961 in FY2025. With finance costs and FX gains flat, this softened the blow to profit before tax. Nonetheless, there was a 48.6% increase in income tax charge to US$947,961. This was driven by a deferred tax charge of US$372,883 against US$35,003 in FY2025. These factors also contributed to the lower earnings.
• Looking ahead, ECL's recovery hinges on the pace at which Sangster International traffic normalises, and the projected recovery of tourist arrivals supports further normalisation through FY2027. Jamaica's room capacity is currently around 70% of normal levels. With over 11,000 rooms returning between 2026 and 2027, full restoration is targeted for the first quarter of 2027. With Jamaica’s tourism brand still strong and room capacity restored, stopover arrivals through Sangster should rebound and with it ECL's sales. The main risks are slippages in the reopening timeline and the step-up to the full 25% tax rate once Junior Market remission ends in 2027, which could all weigh down on future earnings potential.
• ECL's share price was J$1.96 at the end of trading on Monday, an 18.3% decline since the start of the year. At this price, the stock trades at a P/E of 7.7x.

(Sources: Company Financial Statements, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, Jamaica Tourist Board & NCBCM Research)

• Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited (INDIES) reported a 25.1% increase in net profit to J$38.51Mn for the third quarter ended July 31, 2026 (Q3 2026), as revenues recovered 12.4% to J$292.38Mn. However, a stronger third quarter was not enough to heal the 9M performance.
• Buoyed by what management describes as a “visible trajectory toward recovery following Hurricane Melissa”, Q3 revenues rose 12.4% to J$292.38Mn from J$260.04Mn. The stronger topline was accompanied by a lower cost base, with cost of sales easing 2.1% to J$88.19Mn from J$90.04Mn. As a result, gross profit advanced 20.1% to J$204.19Mn and the quarterly gross margin widened by 448 basis points to 69.8%.
• Administrative and other expenses rose 15.7% to J$143.88Mn, a slower pace than the 20.1% growth in gross profit. Consequently, when paired with other operating income of J$3.85Mn, profit from operations rose 33.1% to J$64.16Mn.
• However, net profit growth faced side effects of finance costs totalling J$23.95Mn (+58.5%), owing to its larger and more expensive bond. In September 2025, Indies retired its J$805.0Mn 7.0% Sagicor Bank Jamaica bond with a five-year J$1.00Bn 9.5% facility from National Commercial Bank. This borrowing was 24.2% larger, at a coupon 250 basis points higher. Meanwhile, a foreign exchange loss of J$0.15Mn, which reversed Q3 2025 gains of J$1.71Mn, also suppressed the pre-tax profit growth to 15.1% at J$40.06Mn.
• Notwithstanding the positive Q3, 9M 2026 earnings are down 28.5% to J$120.53Mn. Revenues (+0.1%) and gross profit (+0.8%) are largely flat, but higher admin and other expenses (+9.9%) and finance costs (+59.5%) were bitter pills to swallow and were symptoms of a weaker H1 206. The weaker H1 was due to post-Melissa disruptions and higher finance costs following the refinancing.
• Looking ahead, performance should continue to normalise as the distance from the storm widens. With reconstruction progressing, and household and business activity being restored across the island, this supports the normalisation of demand for Indies’ products.
• At the close of trading on September 21^st, INDIES' share price was J$2.61, representing an 8.1% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock trades at a P/E of 25.1x, above the Junior Market Health sector average of 22.5x and offers a dividend yield of 5.2%.

(Sources: Company Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• On September 21, 2026, S&P Global Ratings affirmed Jamaica’s ‘BB’ long-term and ‘B’ short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings, with a stable outlook. The stable outlook balances expectations that the government will prudently manage the recovery and rebuilding of Jamaica’s infrastructure as well as its inherent vulnerability to external shocks.
• Real GDP is projected to contract 1.1% in 2026 before rebounding 3.0% in 2027 and 2.6% in 2028, supported in part by reconstruction centralised through the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority. Tourism, which accounts for as much as 30% of GDP, had about 72% of hotel operators back in operation as at July 2026, while tourist passengers in H1 2026 were 20% lower than a year earlier.
• On the fiscal side, a temporary deterioration of the government's fiscal profile is expected given the magnitude and severity of Hurricane Melissa. As such, the government is projected to deviate from its past modest surpluses and report a fiscal deficit of 4.2% for fiscal 2026. Its fiscal profile is expected to further deteriorate in fiscal 2027 (-2.5%) as revenues remain pressured and post-Melissa reconstruction spending scales, before narrowing to 0.6% by 2028. Still, it is important to note that, Jamaica is the only one of the 141 sovereigns rated by S&P to have posted an annual primary surplus above 3% of GDP for each of the past 10 years.
• Net general government debt is also expected to rise to 55.6% of GDP this year from 53.6% in 2025, before easing to 50.1% by 2029. Interest on debt is projected to absorb about 17% of revenues on average over 2026 to 2029. S&P also flagged that the public sector wage agreements signed in August 2026 could lift wages and salaries to 13.5% of GDP by the end of FY2027. S&P also believes there is strong commitment across government to return to a 60% debt-to-GDP ratio by FY2030, although the government has yet to legislate a timeline to achieve this ceiling
• Externally, the current account is expected to swing to deficits averaging 3.3% of GDP over the next four years. Coming from surpluses averaging 2.3% of GDP in the prior two years, this is owed to lower exports, higher rebuilding-related imports and higher energy costs.
• The credit rating could be downgraded during the next 12 months if changing fiscal policy and a weaker commitment to fiscal sustainability over the long term lead to materially larger, sustained deficits over the forecast horizon, that is not expected to improve. Conversely, the ratings could be upgraded over the same period if Jamaica's debt burden improves with a sustained and material decrease in its interest-to-revenues ratio and a quicker recovery in the government's fiscal performance. A positive action could also occur if the economic recovery is substantially faster and stronger than expected, leading to higher longer-term economic growth that converges with that of peers at a similar level of economic development

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Bermuda’s economy expanded by an estimated 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026 (Q1 2026), adjusted for inflation, extending the momentum recorded in 2025. The growth was primarily supported by stronger household expenditure and construction activity.
• Household spending remained a key driver of growth, increasing 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) to US$827.7Mn. Spending on services rose 2.1%, supported by higher expenditure on catering, accommodation and postal services, while durable goods spending increased 9.7%, driven by purchases of information-processing equipment, motorcycles, and new and used cars. Spending also increased on personal goods, motor fuel, food and non-alcoholic beverages.
• The stronger economic activity was accompanied by broad-based gains in employment income, which rose 6.3% YoY in Q1. Construction recorded a 12% increase, followed by public administration and defence at 11.6% and banking, insurance and real estate at 6%. Employment income also increased in international business, hotels and restaurants, and wholesale and retail, pointing to continued strength across several sectors.
• Construction and tourism provided additional support to growth. Construction investment increased 8.1%, contributing to a 0.6% rise in gross capital formation to US$198.2Mn, although investment in machinery and equipment declined 6.2%. Meanwhile, air visitor arrivals rose to 29,426 from 27,649 a year earlier, with estimated visitor spending increasing to US$55.3Mn from US$48.5Mn (+14.0%).
• Other indicators were mixed, but overall activity remained resilient. Government consumption fell 5.6% to US$190.3Mn, while the trade balance declined marginally by 0.1% to US$831.0Mn as both imports and exports of goods and services decreased.
• Bermuda's exceptional wealth is underpinned by its globally competitive insurance and reinsurance sector, alongside a steady but smaller tourism industry. S&P Global Ratings estimates that Bermuda’s GDP per capita will remain among the highest globally, reaching approximately US$141,000 in 2026, supported by the territory’s role as a leading global insurance and reinsurance hub. Furthermore, the agency expects average real GDP growth of approximately 1.6% over the next four years, reflecting normalisation following the stronger post-pandemic recovery period.

(Sources: Caribbean Today & S&P Global Ratings)

• Barbados risks losing ground in its drive for international climate finance unless it can provide the detailed, reliable data required by lenders and donors, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Environment, National Beautification and Fisheries Santia Bradshaw warned. Speaking during a high-level site visit to the Fisheries Breakwater and Sugar Berth Works with a World Bank technical team, Bradshaw said international institutions increasingly require data to justify their investments.
• While Barbados has significant information collected over decades, the challenge is that the data remains fragmented and poorly integrated. Bradshaw said the country needs to move away from having “lots of reports which we do nothing with” and instead compile statistics that can inform decision-making and strengthen the government’s case when seeking financing. She noted that donors require specific measures of climate-related damage and economic losses, such as the number of fishing vessels lost and the impact on earnings and communities.
• The government is therefore working to strengthen the country’s data-collection and reporting systems through the Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT). The project is intended to improve systems for measuring, verifying, reporting and demonstrating the impact of Barbados’ climate action, while standardising data collection, strengthening quality assurance, reducing duplication and supporting evidence-based policymaking.
• Bradshaw stressed that building capacity will be a long-term process as Barbados’ climate vulnerability continues to increase. The government said climate financing has not been halted, but access to funding depends on Barbados meeting the data requirements attached to individual financing agreements. Bradshaw said funding agencies are generally willing to release financing once the required information and targets are provided.
• The issue also highlights a wider challenge for Caribbean sovereigns, where reliable climate and economic data will be increasingly important to securing external financing. As lenders and investors require greater evidence of climate-related risks and financing needs, gaps in data could make it harder for governments to access funding for disaster recovery and resilience, potentially leaving them more reliant on domestic resources or additional borrowing and placing pressure on fiscal positions.

(Sources: Barbados Today & NCBCM Research)

• New US tariffs could slash Canada's fourth-quarter growth to below 1%, reflecting a new wave of uncertainty that threatens to hit investment ​and hiring, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday.
• Macklem said that as ‌the bank pondered what to do with rates, it had to take into consideration the fact that while slower growth could drag inflation downwards, the Middle East conflict could push it up as oil prices soar. Canada's annual inflation ​rate is 3%, well above the bank's 2% target, and it could edge up ​if oil prices remain near $100 a barrel, he said.
• Canada's economy rebounded in the ⁠second quarter and posted annualised growth of 3.3%, as businesses and households started to adjust and ​plan investments and spending after almost 18 months of US tariffs. But as a prospective trade deal ​collapsed between the two long-term allies, the rift between them has widened with new tariffs from the US.
• In July, before ​the tariffs were unveiled, the BoC had forecast a third-quarter growth of 1.5%, and economists say recent indicators ‌show ⁠it will most likely be around that range. The Middle East conflict has not only impacted crude oil prices but also damaged gasoline and diesel capacity, piling up more pressure on the cost of fuel.
• Macklem said that with no easing of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the risk that inflation broadens and becomes ​more persistent has increased, ​although there is no ⁠evidence so far that the higher fuel costs are spreading to other goods or services. "We don't want to raise our policy rate and restrain ​growth if inflationary pressures are contained. But nor do we want to ​be too slow ⁠to respond if inflationary pressures are being more persistent," he said.
• Macklem noted that since the start of the trade war between the U.S. and Canada, the BoC was seeing evidence that businesses were reducing ⁠their exposure ​to tariffs by changing supply chains and changing sourcing strategies. They ​are also adopting AI technology, but its impact on productivity will take time to reflect. That said, slower population growth and ​an ageing population are also hitting labour supply and consumer demand, he added.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Federal Reserve will likely need to hike interest rates further to lower inflation resulting from strong demand as ​well as a commodity price shock that has moved beyond oil, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Monday, adding that it would be better for the ‌US central bank to act sooner than wait.
• "Both persistent demand and recurring supply forces are continuing to contribute to keeping inflation risks elevated, and I judge that without further policy restraint on inflation it is more likely to be substantially above our 2% target in 18 months than at target," Musalem said in an interview with Reuters.
• Musalem, who is not currently a voting member of the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, would not comment on the Fed's possible next steps or the estimated level the policy rate may need to reach to lower inflation.
• But "earlier and incremental policy firming ⁠is better and less disruptive than later and larger and potentially more abrupt policy action" further in the future, he said. Inflation "is not a risk. It's there," Musalem said, noting that even after stripping out the impact of oil and other supply-related factors, underlying inflation is running perhaps a percentage point above the Fed's target and is "moving in the wrong direction."
• Little progress has been made recently in the ​battle to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's main inflation gauge, was at 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in July, compared to a recent low of 2.3% in April of 2025, as the Trump administration rolled out its plan for global import tariffs. The shock to import prices was followed this year by the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, which pushed up fuel costs globally, with the price of diesel ​hitting a record high recently. Prices for commodities like copper have also been rising, Musalem said, as an offshoot of the artificial intelligence investment boom.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica welcomed more than 736,000 cruise passengers from 234 calls during the first seven months of 2026. Deputy Director of Tourism for the Americas, Phillip Rose, disclosed the figures during the opening of the Jamaica Product Exchange (JAPEX) at Moon Palace Jamaica in Ocho Rios, St. Ann, on September 14.
• Falmouth remained the island’s busiest cruise port, recording 81 calls, followed by Ocho Rios with 76 and Montego Bay with 73. Together, the three North Coast ports accounted for 230 of the 234 calls, underscoring the continued concentration of cruise activity within Jamaica’s established tourism corridors. Kingston and Port Antonio each recorded two calls.
• Tourism officials are seeking to broaden the range of destinations and experiences available to cruise passengers beyond the island’s traditional resort towns and beaches. According to Mr. Rose, visitors have shown growing interest in Kingston’s cultural and entertainment offerings and Port Antonio’s nature-based attractions. Increasing calls to these ports could distribute tourism spending more widely and reduce some of the pressure on the major North Coast destinations.
• Jamaica’s cruise offering is also expected to benefit from the scheduled arrival of the Disney Destiny on October 13, carrying just under 2,800 passengers. The vessel will join ships operated by several major cruise lines that continue to include Jamaica in their itineraries, including Norwegian Cruise Line, MSC Cruises, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Princess Cruises and Virgin Voyages.
• The cruise segment should provide an important source of visitor traffic and foreign-exchange earnings as Jamaica’s tourism industry continues to recover from Hurricane Melissa, particularly while sections of the hotel inventory remain under repair. However, the economic benefit will depend on the extent to which passengers leave the ports and spend on local attractions, transportation, dining and retail services, as cruise visitors generally contribute less per person than stopover tourists.
• Consequently, expanding cruise calls to Kingston and Port Antonio could strengthen the sector’s overall contribution by extending visitor spending beyond the established resort areas. The addition of newer vessels should also support passenger capacity ahead of the winter tourist season, providing a useful complement to the gradual recovery in stopover arrivals and hotel-room availability.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• Developments across the Jamaica Stock Exchange this week highlighted notable updates. Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited reported a strong third-quarter earnings recovery, Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited strengthened its Board to support its growth strategy, and Sygnus Credit Investments Limited renewed its focus on shareholder value through a second share-buyback programme
• Leading the week’s earnings releases, Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited reported improved results for the third quarter ended July 31, 2026. Revenue increased 12.4% year-over-year to J$292.38Mn, while net profit rose 25.1% to J$38.51Mn. Consequently, earnings per share increased to J$0.029 from J$0.023 in the corresponding period.
• However, the nine-month results presented a more subdued picture, reflecting the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa earlier in the financial year. Revenue was broadly unchanged, increasing 0.14% to J$857.10Mn, while net profit declined 28.5% to J$120.50Mn. Profitability was also constrained by higher finance costs following the refinancing of the company’s J$805Mn bond with a new J$1.00Bn facility. The quarterly rebound is encouraging, but a sustained earnings recovery will depend on continued revenue and earnings growth and the company’s ability to absorb its higher debt-servicing costs.
• Turning to corporate governance, Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited announced the appointment of three directors as the company enters what Chairman and CEO Tyrone Wilson described as its next phase of growth. The appointments appear strategically aligned with the Group’s need to strengthen oversight while supporting its expansion plans.
• Jahmar Clarke brings corporate and commercial law expertise to the HR & Compensation Committee. Christopher "Chris" Denny, a 20-year banking and capital markets veteran from Citigroup and FirstCaribbean, steps in as Audit Committee Chair to strengthen financial reporting and controls. Finally, Neil Patrick, formerly of Digicel and Orange UK, joins the Audit and Compensation Committees while also working directly with the Group to build out its technology division. Collectively, the appointments combine stronger legal, financial and governance oversight with expertise that could support Kintyre’s technology-led growth ambitions.
• Rounding out the week, Sygnus Credit Investments Limited unveiled a second Share Buyback Programme, at a time when its shares continue to trade significantly below net asset value (NAV). It is authorising up to US$4.5Mn in repurchases of its JMD and USD Ordinary Shares through June 2029. The programme extends SCI’s existing capital-management strategy. Under its first programme, which ran from June 2023 to June 2026, the company repurchased 136,525 USD shares and approximately 10.30Mn JMD shares. The renewed authorisation gives SCI the flexibility to repurchase shares when they trade below net asset value, potentially narrowing the discount and supporting shareholder value. However, the ultimate benefit will depend on the timing and pricing of the repurchases relative to the company’s other capital-deployment opportunities.

(Sources: JSE, NCBCM Research)