• Output prices for producers in the Mining and Quarrying industry, a component of the producers' price index (PPI), increased by 0.2% for August 2025, while the index for the Manufacturing industry declined by 0.1% according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• The increase in the index for the Mining & Quarrying industry was primarily due to a similar 0.2% rise in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• On the other hand, the decline in the PPI for the Manufacturing industry was due to a 1.4% decline in the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’. However, this decline was tempered by a 0.2% increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco.
• For the period August 2024 – August 2025, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 6.6%. This was mainly due to a decline of 7.5% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• The point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 1.9%. This was related to a 3.1% increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco. However, the industry’s overall increase was moderated by a 5.7% fall in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ due to lower prices for crude on the international market.
• Looking ahead, a significant upside risk to the Producer Price Index (PPI) is posed by the potential for renewed geopolitical tensions to disrupt supply chains. Such a disruption would likely lead to a sharp acceleration in international oil prices, thereby immediately escalating imported input costs for domestic manufacturers and placing strong upward pressure on the Manufacturing index.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• Brazil's central bank continues to see signs of resilience in the country's economy despite indications of an overall slowdown, its governor said on Monday, adding that the authority would maintain a data-driven approach to monetary policy.
• Gabriel Galipolo's remarks came as the bank earlier this month held interest rates at a near two-decade high of 15.0% for a second straight meeting, signaling it would keep them unchanged for a long time in a bid to tame persistent inflation.
• Speaking at an event hosted by Itau BBA, Galipolo emphasised that the central bank is monitoring whether interest rates are at a sufficiently restrictive level to bring inflation back to its 3.0% target. He noted that Brazil's job market has demonstrated "great resilience, while a current account deficit points to heated demand.
• He mentioned that both the bank's own projections and the expectations of various economic agents suggest that inflation will remain above the goal over the relevant horizon, which currently extends to the first quarter of 2027.
• Galipolo also pointed out that current inflation is above target, adding that all these variables "require us to remain vigilant, calm, and persistent." Even so, the governor said that the bank's data-dependent approach has proven effective so far.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United Kingdom’s (UK) government is considering stricter criteria for permanent residency, reflecting growing political pressure to curb immigration while balancing economic needs. Interior Minister Shabana Mahmood is set to announce at the Labour Party conference that permanent settlement may no longer be automatic after five years of residency.
• Instead, migrants could be required to prove their value to society by paying social security contributions, demonstrating strong English proficiency, maintaining a clean criminal record, and even showing evidence of community service.
• The government is also considering only allowing people to qualify if they can speak English to a high standard and have a record of volunteering in their communities, Mahmood will say, according to extracts of her speech released by Labour. A consultation on the proposals will be launched later this year.
• The move comes as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government faces mounting pressure from Reform UK, a populist party making immigration its central platform. Reform’s recent surge in opinion polls has forced Labour to toughen its stance, even though the party traditionally takes a more liberal view of migration.
• Nigel Farage's anti-immigration Reform UK, which is leading in opinion polls, said last week it was considering scrapping "indefinite leave to remain", and replacing it with a five-year renewable work visa. Starmer accused Reform on Sunday of planning a "racist policy" of mass deportations that would "tear this country apart".
• Immigration remains one of the most divisive issues in British politics. The Brexit referendum in 2016 was largely driven by demands to “take back control” of borders, yet net arrivals have hit record highs since leaving the European Union. By floating new restrictions on permanent residency, Labour hopes to blunt Reform UK’s influence while showing voters it is serious about addressing concerns over integration and social cohesion.

(Sources: Modern Diplomacy & Reuters)

• Announcements by the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, France and other countries last week to officially recognise a Palestinian state will deepen Israel’s isolation and may, over the longer term, lead to international legal measures or sanctions against the country by individual states. However, Fitch does not expect that the announcements will have any substantive effect in pushing Israel to end the war in Gaza, curb settlement activity in the West Bank, or adopt a serious pathway to a two-state solution.
• This will likely remain the case even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners lose power in elections due to be held by October 2026. In addition, Israel’s role as a key security partner for European states which are seeking to bolster their defence capabilities will limit how forcefully they are willing to press Israel on a two-state solution.
• Nonetheless, expanded diplomatic recognition of Palestine will deepen Israel’s dependence on the U.S. as a source of diplomatic cover and military support. Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump on September 29, 2025, and unveiled a proposal to end the war in Gaza that they trumpeted as a giant step toward peace in the Middle East, and they demanded that Hamas accept it.
• But it appeared improbable that Hamas would agree to their demands. Among the proposals are for the militant group to disarm, accept considerably less than a full Israeli withdrawal from the territory and play no role in governing Gaza in the future. Hamas said before and after the plan was released that it had not been consulted on it or received a copy. Later, at the White House, Trump warned that if the group did not agree, Israel would have his “full backing” to eliminate Hamas as a threat.
• However, Trump stated on September 25, 2025, that he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank. Such a move would be extremely negative for the Abraham Accords, his signature diplomatic achievement, and the UAE has explicitly said that the expansion of Israeli settlements is a ‘red line’.
• If Israel goes ahead with annexing the West Bank, Fitch expects at least a downgrading of diplomatic ties between the UAE and Israel, as well as a further severe setback to efforts to normalise relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

(Sources: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company and NY Times)

• On September 25, 2025, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'BB' from 'BB-', and its transfer and convertibility assessment to 'BB+' from 'BB'. At the same time, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica. The outlook is positive.
• The positive outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that continued primary fiscal surpluses will let the government meet its fiscal responsibility law debt target, likely ahead of schedule. This would demonstrate its decade-long commitment to effective and predictable fiscal policymaking. At the same time, S&P expects the government’s debt burden to decrease.
• Furthermore, the recent election in Jamaica has solidified S&P’s view that there is consensus across political parties and civil society about the importance of sustainable public finances. This consensus has sustained large primary fiscal surpluses over the past decade, contributing to large decreases in government debt and underpinning an improvement in the agency’s institutional assessment of Jamaica.
• The combination of consistent primary surpluses and higher GDP levels will lead to net general government debt falling below 50% this year, and continuing to fall during the forecast horizon. Net general government debt is set to reach just below 48% this year, four percentage points lower than S&P’s 2025 forecast made last year. At the same time, the agency expects the government interest to revenue metrics will fall, averaging just over 15% from 2025-2027.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Jamaica has secured its place as the Caribbean’s most connected destination, achieving record-breaking global linkages while advancing an ambitious agenda for inclusive and sustainable tourism growth.
• With year-end arrivals projected at 4.5 million, including 3.1 million stopover visitors and 1.4 million cruise passengers, the island now boasts direct connections to more than 55 international gateways, setting a new regional benchmark for accessibility.
• This unprecedented connectivity is fueling visitor growth and wider economic development. Commenting on the expansion and inclusiveness at the JAPEX media breakfast on September 25, 2025, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett said, “Jamaica’s rapid expansion in airlift is more than just a milestone for tourism; it’s a catalyst for national transformation. Our vision is clear – tourism must work for all Jamaicans.
• The country’s push for inclusivity extends to the tourism workforce. More than 20,000 workers have been certified through the Jamaica Centre for Tourism Innovation, raising service standards and employability. Meanwhile, the Tourism Workers Pension Scheme continues to expand, offering financial security to thousands of industry professionals.
• Quality and safety are also central to Jamaica’s growth strategy. The Destination Assurance Framework has been rolled out to ensure high standards and accessibility across tourism offerings, aiming to make tourism a true engine of social mobility with tangible benefits for individuals and communities.
• Looking ahead, Jamaica is targeting technology-driven services, green investments, and deeper community partnerships to ensure tourism remains resilient and inclusive. With these advancements, Jamaica is positioning itself not only as a top destination but as a model for inclusive tourism development in the Caribbean and beyond.
• Historic infrastructure projects are also reinforcing this momentum. The US$274Mn Montego Bay Perimeter Road, now 60% complete, will ease chronic congestion, open new corridors for commercial activity, and create smoother travel experiences for residents and visitors alike. In partnership with the International Finance Corporation, Jamaica is also widening key segments of the North Coast Highway from two to four lanes, improving access to premier destinations such as Montego Bay and Ocho Rios and strengthening economic links between coastal communities.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• S&P Global Ratings has revised Trinidad and Tobago’s outlook from stable to negative, while maintaining its investment-grade rating at BBB-. The agency cited ongoing fiscal weaknesses, falling energy production, and increasing debt as factors that could lead to a downgrade within two years. Further, limited monetary flexibility, including a heavily managed exchange rate, constrains the country's ability to respond to potential shocks. Per capita GDP growth is also below the average for sovereigns with a similar income level, constraining the rating.
• The negative outlook reflects S&P’s view that there is at least a one-in-three chance it could lower the ratings over the next 6-24 months. The country’s fiscal and external buffers have been gradually weakening over time, and its long-term economic growth has been low.
• It further highlighted that despite many efforts, there has been only limited progress by previous administrations in diversifying the economy, leaving it vulnerable to volatile energy prices, while output from the oil and gas sector has recently declined.
• S&P’s rating could be lowered over the next 6 to 24 months if the government fails to take timely corrective steps to strengthen the sustainability of public finances, ensure long-term balanced economic growth, and maintain the country’s strong external profile. Failure to address a prolonged weakening of public finances and diminution of foreign exchange reserves could reflect institutional shortcomings that limit the government’s capacity to build buffers that enhance the country's ability to respond to negative shocks.
• However, the outlook could be revised to stable over the next 24 months if it believes government policies will improve fiscal sustainability, lead to more favourable long-term GDP growth prospects, and sustain the country's external profile.
• S&P expects economic growth to remain weak for the next two to three years, as oil and gas production have fallen in recent years. The volatile energy sector typically represents more than one-quarter of GDP and government revenues, and almost 80% of exports, on average, in the past five years. The ratings also reflect a moderate government debt burden, which has risen in recent years, and shortcomings in timely economic data

(Source: S&P Global)

• The Bank of Mexico(Banxico) cut its benchmark interest rate to its lowest level since May 2022 on Thursday and indicated it would consider further easing at future meetings, amid ongoing concerns about global trade tensions and sluggish economic growth in Latin America's second-largest economy. Banxico, as the central bank is known, reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5% in a divided vote. Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath was the sole member of the five-member board who voted to hold the interest rate at 7.75%.
• The rate cut was largely expected by the market, and Banxico is balancing dual challenges: bringing down inflation while also stimulating the economy amid tepid economic growth. Easing monetary policy could spur the economy but also fuel inflation in Latin America’s second-largest economy.
• In a statement on Thursday, the bank said it took into account "weak economic growth" and fluctuating global trade policies in its decision to lower borrowing costs. Still, the fact that Banxico reduced the interest rate by a quarter point instead of a half point – as it had four times earlier this year – underscores concern about sticky inflation, particularly the closely-watched core index.
• Annual core inflation, which is considered a good gauge of price trends because it strips out volatile food and energy prices, has been rising in recent months and hit 4.26% in the first half of September. Banxico targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. Headline inflation also accelerated in the first half of September, reaching 3.74%, up from 3.49% in the first half of August.
• In updated inflation forecasts released on Thursday, Banxico raised its estimate for year-end annual core inflation to 4.0% in the fourth quarter, up from its previous estimate of 3.7%. The bank said in its quarterly report in August that Mexico's economy - while anaemic - is showing resilience in the face of an uncertain business environment and global trade pressures. The bank strengthened its economic growth forecast for the year to 0.6%, up from a previous estimate of 0.1%. It is estimated that the economy will grow 1.1% in 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the second quarter amid strong consumer spending and business investment, though momentum appears to be slowing as the effects of tariffs and policy uncertainty start to filter through.
• The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday also reflected a sharp contraction in the trade deficit as the flood of imports slowed. The economy's resilience was underscored by other data showing strong demand by businesses for equipment in August. The demand was driven by an artificial intelligence (AI) spending boom, and a drop in first-time applications for state unemployment benefits last week as companies hoard workers.
• The data at face value suggested further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve were probably unwarranted. Tepid hiring blamed by economists on President Donald Trump's import duties and an immigration crackdown caused job growth to almost stall in the three months through August, prompting the U.S. central bank to resume its policy easing last week.
• Gross domestic product increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualised rate last quarter, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third GDP estimate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 3.3% pace in the second quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth to be unrevised.
• A sharp narrowing of the trade deficit as imports collapsed after a record surge in the January-March quarter was the main driver of the rebound in GDP last quarter. The smaller trade deficit added a record 4.83 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth after slicing off 4.68pp in the first quarter.
• Imports surged in the January-March quarter as businesses rushed to beat the duties, which boosted the nation's average tariff rate to its highest level in a century. Both the first- and second-quarter GDP readings are not a true reflection of the economy's health because of the wild swings in imports.
• Trade could add to GDP growth in the third quarter. A separate report from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed the goods trade deficit contracted 16.8% to $85.5 billion in August as imports plunged.
• Economists are bracing for lacklustre growth in the second half of the year because of the lingering drag from trade policy uncertainty as well as mass deportations, which are hampering job growth through reduced labour supply. Growth estimates for the third quarter are converging around a 2.5% rate.

(Source: Reuters)

• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development lifted its 2025 growth forecast for the first time in more than a year but warned that the effects of tariffs and war will weigh on growth in 2026.
• The report, which covers economies in emerging Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, raised the 2025 growth outlook slightly to 3.1%, but noted a growing divergence as emerging European countries' growth lagged expansion elsewhere.
• The latest report, EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik told Reuters, showed "a story of multiple pressure points, and a story of divergence in performance between emerging Europe and our other regions of operations."
• Rising debt, resurgent inflation, prolonged wars and tariffs were menacing all EBRD economies, Javorcik warned. And while U.S. imports from those countries had grown in the first half of the year, that was driven by the first quarter, before tariffs hit. "Going forward, we are going to see the impact of tariffs biting," she said.
• Debt and the need to cut spending are weighing on growth in EBRD's European countries, including Poland, Hungary and Romania, while countries in Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Turkey are pegged for faster growth. However, Javorcik said debt payments as a percentage of GDP are rising in most countries, casting a shadow over the long-term sustainability of public finances.

(Source: Reuters)