• On March 30, 2026, BMI (a Fitch Solutions Company) published its quarterly Costa Rica Country Risk Report, which assessed the economic and political risk profile of the sovereign. The report highlights political stability following the February 2026 election, a positive economic outlook, but noted risks including fiscal consolidation pressures, elevated exposure to US demand and rising crime.
• Costa Rica held its presidential election on February 1, 2026, with President-elect Laura Fernández taking office on May 8 with a working legislative majority of 31 out of 57 seats. This administration is expected to maintain broad policy continuity with the Chávez administration, particularly with regards to fiscal consolidation and a hardline approach to crime.
• On the economic front, Fitch noted tht following a strong post-pandemic recovery, Real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026. This is a moderation from 4.6% in 2025 toward the pre-pandemic trend of 3.8%, with private consumption and the manufacturing sector, which accounts for roughly 70.0% of total exports, remaining the primary drivers of activity.
• Meanwhile, despite progress in recent years, supported by a primary surplus of around 1.0% of GDP in 2025, fiscal consolidation is expected to stall in 2026 with the deficit widening slightly to 3.6% of GDP. This will result in a sharp slowdown in revenue growth. In 2025, total revenues grew just 0.8%. Moreover, spending remains highly rigid, with wages, transfers, and interest payments accounting for close to 90.0% of total expenditure. As a result, the pace of consolidation is expected to remain gradual, with the incoming Fernández administration signalling continuity with the current fiscal framework rather than introducing new measures to accelerate deficit reduction.
• The report also touched on expectations for Costa Rica’s monetary policy. The Central Bank of Costa Rica held its policy rate at 3.25% on March 26 despite market expectations for a cut and is forecast to deliver an additional 25 basis point reduction to 3.00% in the second half of 2026. This outlook is underpinned by rising global oil prices and resilient domestic activity, both of which limit the case for more aggressive easing. The Monthly Economic Activity Index expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in January 2026, supporting the growth outlook.
• Separately, its current account deficit is projected to widen modestly to 1.9% GDP from 1.6% in 2025. This expectation is driven by a growing goods trade deficit as import demand holds up and a stronger colón weighs on export competitiveness. This will be supported by a large services surplus and robust Foreign Direct Investment inflows, with gross international reserves at US$11.9Bn as of February 2026.
• Notwithstanding the positives, there are some key risks to Costa Rica’s economic outlook. This includes a heavy dependence on United States demand through exports and FDI, leaving the sovereign vulnerable to any slowdown from the U.S. Persistent colón strength, weighing on export competitiveness and rising crime, is also adversely impacting investor confidence. Finally, high public debt constrains fiscal flexibility, while longer-term structural bottlenecks in infrastructure and labour market productivity risk capping the economy's growth potential over the medium term.

(Sources: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Middle East crisis has driven a roughly 10.0% increase in daily ship transits through the Panama Canal above budgeted levels. Daily crossings totalled between 38 and 41 daily crossings over the past two weeks, compared to the planned 34 to 36, as vessels seek a safer and more cost-efficient alternative to disrupted Middle Eastern shipping routes.
• Deputy Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta highlighted the Canal's appeal in the current environment. He noted that it offers a safe, short route that provides better economies of scale at elevated fuel prices, reinforcing Panama's strategic value as a global maritime chokepoint during periods of geopolitical instability.
• The Liquefied Natural Gas segment, which pays the second-highest toll on the Canal after container ships in the Neopanamax locks, is showing signs of meaningful recovery following a post-Ukraine war decline. New reservations expected for April, represent a positive and timely revenue uplift for Canal finances.
• The Canal is currently running 10% above budget in both tonnage and revenue, though authorities noted it will be necessary to wait until the end of the fiscal year to fully measure the impact. For context, fiscal year 2025 Canal revenues reached US$5.71Bn, a 14.4% increase, with total transits of 13,404.
• For the Panamanian sovereign, this development is a meaningful near-term credit positive. Canal toll revenues are a critical pillar of government finances and fiscal consolidation efforts. Sustained above-budget traffic, if maintained through the second and third quarters of 2026, could provide meaningful relief to Panama's elevated fiscal deficit and partially offset the sovereign's ongoing refinancing pressures.

(Source: Newsroom Panama & NCBCM Research)

• The U.S. national average retail price of gasoline surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years on Monday, March 30, 2026, as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets. The $4 per gallon threshold, last reached in August 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, represents what analysts have described as a psychological barrier for consumers. Prices for a range of goods have been rising alongside crude oil, following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trade chokepoint.
• Surging fuel prices have begun to weigh on U.S. household finances, which were already under pressure from elevated living costs. The national average gasoline price has increased by approximately $1.06 per gallon, or 36%, since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February. With crude oil prices continuing to climb, analysts warn that pump prices could rise further in the near term.
• According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 55% of respondents said their household finances had been at least “somewhat” affected by higher gasoline prices, with 21% reporting that the impact had been felt “a great deal.”
• Notwithstanding these pressures, the administration has taken steps to assuage rising energy costs as the conflict has persisted, including a waiver of the Jones Act shipping law. The waiver temporarily allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport fuel, fertiliser and other goods between U.S. ports. However, industry participants expect the measure to have only a marginal impact on price increases.
• “The key issue is not simply crude oil itself. It is gasoline, the most visible price in the economy for consumers, and when that price jumps it hits psychology immediately,” said economist, Jeremy Siegel. “That matters, even if the broader economic effect is more balanced than the headlines.”

(Source: Reuters)

• US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a wide-ranging talk at Harvard University, said on Monday, that he sees inflation expectations as grounded, despite rising energy prices, so the central bank does not need to respond with higher interest rates.
• In the near term, he said the proper move is to look beyond the short-term gyrations of the energy market and focus on the Fed’s goals of stable prices and low unemployment. “Inflation expectations do appear to be well anchored beyond the short term, but nonetheless, it’s something we will eventually maybe face the question of what to do here,” the US Fed Chair noted. Powell said he believes the current rate target, in a range between 3.5%-3.75%, is “a good place” for the Fed to sit as it observes events currently playing out, including the Iran war and the impact tariffs are having on prices.
• The comments appeared to register in financial markets, with traders no longer pricing in a significant chance of a rate hike this year. As recently as Friday morning, markets were looking at a higher than 50% probability of a quarter percentage point increase amid expectations the Fed would react to the surge in energy costs. However, the odds of a hike by December 2026 fell to 2.2% after Powell’s appearance.
• According to Powell, raising rates now could have negative effects on the economy later, noting that Fed rate moves have a lagged impact, so tightening here wouldn’t help the inflationary impact of the Iran war. “By the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone… So the tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” he added.

(Source: CNBC)

• The Producer Price Index for the Mining & Quarrying industry for February 2026 fell by 1.3%, while the index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 0.5%.
• The decline in the Mining & Quarrying industry was mainly due to a similar 1.3% fall in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. Additionally, the PPI for the other major group, ‘Other Mining & Quarrying’, fell by 0.3%.
• The upward movement in the index for the Manufacturing industry was due to increases in the major groups ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ (0.2%) and ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ (2.0%).
• For the period February 2025 – February 2026, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry fell by 30.8 %. This was due to a decline of 32.3% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• Reflecting a 3.2% increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’, the point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 1.9%. However, the overall point-to-point increase in the industry’s index was tempered by a 4.7% fall in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ which is in line with a 9.2% fall in oil prices on the world market in February 2026.
• The global bauxite market is currently experiencing significant oversupply, largely driven by record exports from Guinea, which has led to a nearly 50% drop in prices since January 2025. The PPI is likely to remain influenced by the further surplus in 2026, which could continue to weigh on prices in the Mining & Quarrying sector as demand for bauxite and alumina levels off, given China’s strict national ceiling of 45 million tons on primarily aluminium production.  However, the Guinean government has plans to intervene by implementing export restrictions by April 2026, which could offset these declines.
• In contrast, the Manufacturing index may experience upward pressure. With Brent crude surging past US$100/bbl following the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran and Iran’s restriction of access to the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which accounts for 70% of local power generation, has seen prices climb by 3.8% since the onset of the conflict, with further volatility expected
• Against this backdrop, the Manufacturing Index, particularly for Refined Petroleum Products, is projected to rise in March alongside electricity costs across all divisions. Ultimately, the rising cost of imported fuel and energy is poised to trigger a cost-push increase in producer prices across all manufacturing sub-groups.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• Governance upgrades are setting the tone this week, as companies continue to reinforce board independence and oversight. Image Plus Consultants Limited (IPCL) added two independent directors, while Sagicor Real Estate X Fund (XFUND) also expanded its board with a new appointment.
• Simultaneously, XFUND is evaluating a capital reduction to address negative retained earnings on its standalone accounts highlighting a more proactive approach to balance sheet management.
• Turning to shareholder returns, Sagicor Group Jamaica reinforced its commitment to shareholder value with the declaration of a final dividend of $0.89 per stock unit, payable in May 2026, resulting in a $6.95Bn total payment to shareholders over a 12-month period and a dividend yield of 4.2%, at its current price of $41.91.
• However, not all updates were as encouraging as reporting delays point to lingering compliance challenges for Spur Tree Spices Jamaica Limited and Stanley Motta Limited. Both companies indicated setbacks in finalising FY2025 audited financials and now expect them to be completed by April 15 and April 30, respectively.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Dominica on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, announced a series of measures aimed at cushioning the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit warned that rising oil prices and global supply disruptions could affect fuel, food costs, jobs, and overall economic stability, noting that while the island faces no direct military threat, it remains exposed to economic aftershocks.
• He warned that the most immediate concern for Dominica is a sharp increase in global oil prices, as the country imports all of its fuel, which will affect electricity costs, transportation, and the price of goods and services, alongside rising costs of imported food and essential supplies due to disruptions in global shipping routes and supply chains.
• The Prime Minister also cautioned that a slowdown in global travel and investment could affect tourism and capital inflows into the local economy, highlighting broader risks to economic activity beyond energy and trade channels.
• To mitigate these risks, Skerrit said the government will introduce targeted relief measures, including temporary reductions on duties and taxes for essential goods, expanded support for vulnerable households through social protection programmes, collaboration with Dominica Electricity Services to manage energy costs, and continued progress on the geothermal energy project in Laudat to reduce reliance on imported fuel and lower electricity costs over time.
• Additionally, the government will engage stakeholders across tourism, agriculture, and the private sector to protect jobs and maintain economic activity, while strengthening fiscal management by prioritising critical spending and deferring discretionary expenditures, with Skerrit urging citizens to remain calm despite potential pressure from rising prices.
• Dominica joins the Dominican Republic, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda and Guyana, which are among the Caribbean countries that have announced relief measures for its residents in recent weeks as the US-Israeli war on Iran has caused a sharp rise in energy prices.

(Sources: Caribbean News Weekly & NCBCM Research)

• The Trinidad & Tobago government has no plans to raise fuel prices amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, according to Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo. He made the comments yesterday while speaking with journalists at the Trinidad and Tobago Manufacturers Association's (TTMA) Leadership Discussion and Networking Event at the Hyatt Regency (Trinidad), Port of Spain.
• Oil prices have surged in recent days amid the escalating conflict between a United States/Israel coalition and Iran, raising concerns over potential disruptions to energy supply routes in the region. Referencing the situation and its impact on global oil markets, Tancoo acknowledged that while Trinidad & Tobago has no role in the war, the recent surge in energy prices could impact the country. Notwithstanding, he reiterated that, despite rising global prices, there is no intention to increase fuel costs locally.
• He described the development as a “mixed blessing”, noting the country imports a significant portion of its fuel. “Therefore, the cost to the Government has gone up. Shipping costs have also gone up. We produce some oil and, therefore, as a result, we would have increased the take from the higher prices that have resulted.”
• Minister of Energy Dr Roodal Moonilal had stated earlier this month that rising global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices amid Middle East tensions could boost Trinidad and Tobago's export earnings. He noted that the country's position as a net LNG exporter made it more resilient than import-dependent economies during periods of global supply uncertainty. “Trinidad and Tobago's exposure to global LNG supply disruptions is fundamentally different from that of major import-dependent economies,” he added.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• Britain said on Thursday, March 26, 2026, it would provide 100 million pounds (US$133.5Mn) to restart production of biogenic carbon dioxide at a shuttered plant on Teesside for three months to avert any shortages caused by ‌the Iran war. CO2 was manufactured by Ensus as a byproduct of bioethanol at the Wilton International site until September, when the plant was unable to compete with lower-cost U.S. bioethanol imports after tariffs were cut in a deal agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump.
• The gas is vital in food and ⁠drinks manufacturing, and has many other uses across the economy, from operating theatres in hospitals to cooling nuclear reactors. The government said disruptions to European fertiliser production had significantly reduced the reliability of CO2 imports, and rising gas prices driven by the Iran conflict, plus unplanned maintenance at several European CO2-producing sites, meant that British supply was at risk.
• Business Secretary Peter Kyle said the government was acting to protect British businesses from the worst impacts of global uncertainty. "By restarting this plant, we've ‌acted ⁠swiftly to boost the resilience of our supply chains and protect critical UK sectors like food production, water and healthcare, as well as the jobs and communities that depend on these industries," he said.
• Ensus UK Chairman Grant Pearson said the agreement strengthened Britain's resilience ⁠in biogenic CO2 supplies. "We hope to have the plant back in full operation soon," he said. Ensus, which has had operations on Teesside in northeast England since 2010, is owned by ⁠CropEnergies, part of the Sudzucker Group.
• The plant uses distillation and fermentation to convert more than 1 million tonnes of wheat a year into 400 million litres of bioethanol, ⁠which is used to make petrol more sustainable. The process has two by-products: high-protein animal feed and carbon dioxide, with a capacity for the latter of 250,000 tonnes annually.

(Source: Reuters)

• President Donald Trump again pushed back his deadline for Iran to strike a deal with the United States (U.S.) or face more attacks, saying talks with the country were going “very well.” Trump said he would extend, by 10 days, his pledge to refrain from attacks on Iranian energy sites, offering a brief calm to global energy markets jolted by conflicting signals on the prospect of a halt to the nearly month-long war.
• The move represented the second extension since Saturday’s (March 21) threat to eviscerate Iran’s power plants, in the absence of a deal. “As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time,” Trump said in a social media post on Thursday, March 26, 2026.  
• Emerging-market currencies and U.S. Treasuries pared losses, and the dollar pared gains against major peers after his latest post. Oil prices climbed, with Brent crude settling near $108 a barrel, as shifting signals from the White House on Iran talks left traders unconvinced of a quick resolution.
• It’s still unclear with whom the U.S. is negotiating since several top Iranian government and military officials have been killed. During a Cabinet meeting Thursday morning, Trump said special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as Vice President JD Vance, “will tell me whether or not they think it’s going along.” He added that “we have a lot of time” before the deadline, issued Monday morning (March 23) in Washington, expires.
• Iran is also calling for an end to the war on all fronts, Tasnim reported, a likely reference to Israel’s parallel war against the Tehran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. Witkoff confirmed during the Cabinet meeting that the 15- point proposal had been delivered to Iran through Pakistani mediators, without giving details, and offered a more optimistic tone. He said it had led to “strong and positive messaging and talks.”
• The U.S. has compiled a list of a dozen demands alongside three points Iran would get in return, according to people familiar with the matter. Trump is under pressure to persuade Tehran to reopen the critical waterway for oil and gas flows, a step needed to arrest a global supply shock. He said during Thursday’s Cabinet meeting that Iran had allowed 10 boats of oil to sail through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a U.S. insurance program meant to boost shipping through the waterway will begin soon.
• Trump’s extended deadline for talks also allows more time for the U.S. to amass additional troops in the region, with some already set to arrive before the week’s end. On Thursday, Trump repeated an earlier timeline of four to six weeks for military operations and said the U.S. war effort is “ahead of schedule.”

(Source: Bloomberg)