• Jamaica is setting its sights on 2026 as the pivotal year to revive its tourism sector, aiming for a substantial rebound after Hurricane Melissa’s devastation in late 2025. With an ambitious target of attracting 500,000 British visitors annually by 2030, the island is focusing on key strategies, including expanding airlift, promoting community-driven tourism experiences, and continuing post-hurricane recovery efforts. By the end of 2026, the island is expected to see tourism returns reaching 80% of pre-hurricane levels, reflecting its resilience and forward-thinking approach.
• The tourism industry has faced a challenging year, with approximately 30% of Jamaica’s tourism infrastructure impacted by the hurricane. However, recovery has been swift, with 70% of the island’s room inventory restored by early 2026, and the remaining properties set to be back online by the end of the year. During this rebuild phase, several resorts are seizing the opportunity to enhance their offerings, ensuring that when they reopen, they will provide upgraded, high-quality experiences for visitors.
• A cornerstone of Jamaica’s recovery plan is the United Kingdom (U.K.) market. Visitor numbers dropped by 6% early in 2025 due to a reduction in flight capacity by TUI Airways, which also ended its homeporting of the Marella cruise line in Montego Bay. Despite this setback, the island is focused on strengthening its ties with U.K. travellers. As part of this strategy, major U.K. airlines are expanding their services to Jamaica for the summer of 2026. TUI will add an extra weekly flight from both London Gatwick and Manchester to Montego Bay, British Airways will increase its London-Gatwick to Kingston service, and Virgin Atlantic will make its London Heathrow to Montego Bay route a daily operation.
• Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett has emphasised the critical role of this expanded airlift in achieving Jamaica’s long-term tourism goals. This initiative reflects Jamaica’s ongoing commitment to strengthening its cultural and historical ties with the UK, as well as capitalising on the deep-rooted diaspora connections.
• In line with shifting travel preferences, Jamaica is adapting its tourism product to meet evolving demands. While traditional resort holidays remain popular, British visitors are increasingly seeking more authentic, immersive travel experiences. According to research from British Airways and the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA), British tourists are gravitating toward story-driven journeys and cultural engagement. Jamaica is responding by offering farm-to-table dining experiences, community volunteering programs, and culturally immersive itineraries that highlight the island’s rich heritage and local traditions.
• Minister Bartlett also outlined plans for further development to enhance the island’s tourism appeal. Among these initiatives is the redesign of the Falmouth cruise port, which is set to become a more vibrant, engaging destination for cruise passengers. Additionally, five major resort developments are in the pipeline, positioning Jamaica to meet the demands of a new generation of travellers while revitalising its tourism infrastructure.

(Source: Travel and Tour World)

• Trinidad and Tobago has been officially removed from the European Union’s list of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes, following a decision by the EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council on Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
• Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar welcomed the development on February 18, 2026, declaring that the country is no longer blacklisted. “Our country has officially been removed from the European Union’s list of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes – a designation applied to countries that fail to meet international standards for tax transparency. This is a major step forward,” she said. Blacklisting constrained investment, limited opportunity, and weakened confidence in the country’s financial system.
• The removal from the list signals clearly to the world that Trinidad and Tobago has met its commitments and reclaimed its standing on the global stage. “Investor interest is rising. Confidence is returning. Momentum is building. T&T is open for business, compliant, and ready for sustainable growth.” The EU tax listing process forms part of global efforts to combat tax evasion and avoidance risks, strengthen transparency, and promote fair taxation.
• EU Ambassador Cécile Tassin also welcomed the development, stating: “The progress made by T&T on the path towards meeting the internationally agreed standards on tax good governance is impressive. These efforts should be commended. They are a positive sign for the continued strengthening of our partnership.” Minister of Finance Davendranath Tancoo also addressed the decision yesterday, describing it as the result of sustained engagement with European authorities.
• A key element of the reform programme was the replacement of the former Free Trade Zone regime, which had been deemed harmful, with a Special Economic Zone framework aligned with international standards.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (EMGL) is expected to submit the Field Development Plan (FDP) for its eighth project in the Stabroek Block, the gas-rich longtail development in the coming weeks, with hopes of securing regulatory approval by the end of 2026. EMGL’s president, Alistair Routledge, made the disclosure at the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo 2026 at the Guyana Marriott Hotel in Georgetown.
• Routledge said, “We’re due to submit a field development plan to the Ministry of Natural Resources in the coming weeks,” adding that the company is nearing completion of the environmental and socio-economic studies required for the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and environmental permitting process, with the aspiration that by the end of this year, the longtail project should be sanctioned.
• Exxon, operator of the Stabroek Block, is currently producing over 900,000 barrels of oil daily from four developments: Liza Phase One, Liza Phase Two, Payara and Yellowtail. While Uaru, Whiptail, and Hammerhead have received government approval, they are not yet producing. Unlike previous developments focused primarily on oil, Longtail will focus on gas production.
• The project will initially operate as a gas cycling development with 1.2 billion cubic feet per day of gas compression capacity. This is equivalent to the total gas compression capacity of the first four projects, and in the early days, it will have a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day of condensate, which BlackRock Midstream describes as extremely light oil, and will be gas export-ready from day one.
• Longtail will involve drilling approximately 24 – 60 production and injection wells, installation, commissioning, and operations of Subsea Umbilicals, Risers, and Flowlines (SURF), and a FPSO configured with gas injection rather than water injection, with subsea equipment installed at a depth of approximately 1,600 – 2,000 metres, located about 200 km from Georgetown in the southeastern portion of the Stabroek Block, with discussions ongoing regarding whether the gas will support offshore projects, the Wales Gas-to-Energy initiative, or the planned second GTE project in Berbice.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• Canada’s trade deficit narrowed in December, with Statistics Canada reporting a C$1.31Bn shortfall, improving from the revised C$2.59Bn deficit in November and undershooting the C$2.0Bn consensus forecast, as stronger export performance supported the external balance.
• Export growth was the primary driver of the improvement, with total exports rising 2.6% to C$65.63Bn, largely reflecting increased shipments of unwrought gold.
• Canada’s export dependence on the United States continued to decline structurally, with U.S.-bound exports accounting for 67.4% of total shipments, down from 76.2% a year earlier and marking the lowest share on record outside the pandemic period, despite a modest 1.1% increase in exports to the U.S. during the month.
• Diversification toward non-U.S. markets remained the dominant narrative, as exports to other countries reached a new record in December and surged 17.0% over 2025, led by gold exports to the United Kingdom alongside growth in select manufacturing segments.
• Bilateral trade dynamics with the United States softened modestly, as imports from the U.S. increased 3.5%, compressing Canada’s merchandise trade surplus with its largest partner to C$5.7Bn from C$6.5Bn in November.
• Trade balances with non-U.S. partners also improved, as imports from countries outside the United States declined 3%, narrowing the deficit with these markets to C$7Bn from C$9Bn, reinforcing the broader rebalancing in trade flows.
• This news release is in line with Canadian PM Mark Carney setting a goal for Canada to double its non-US exports in the next decade. This goal was set given that American tariffs are causing a chill in investment.

(Source: Reuters and AP News)

• Markets are pricing in a further Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike to 1%, potentially as early as March or April, following the central bank’s exit from ultra-loose policy and cumulative tightening that lifted the policy rate to 0.75% in December, a 30-year high.
• A move to 1% could trigger significant household portfolio reallocation, as higher deposit rates incentivise Japanese savers to shift idle cash into interest-bearing bank accounts after decades of near-zero returns.
• Historical behaviour suggests the 0.5% threshold is a key trigger point, with past episodes showing that once policy rates exceed this level, household funds tend to flow rapidly into bank deposits, raising system liquidity held with the BOJ.
• Rising deposit inflows could complicate monetary-policy implementation, as increased reserves at the BOJ may exert downward pressure on money-market rates and hinder the central bank’s ability to guide short-term rates toward its policy target.
• The BOJ’s balance-sheet normalisation adds an additional layer of uncertainty, with the central bank shrinking a balance sheet that expanded roughly fivefold over two decades to about ¥756Tn (US$4.9Tn) following the large-scale stimulus launched in 2013.
• Reserve balances remain elevated at roughly ¥454Tn, though economists estimate the BOJ could reduce reserves to around ¥280Tn without triggering excessive volatility in short-term rates, contingent on future credit growth and bank lending dynamics.
• The transition away from prolonged monetary accommodation creates forecasting challenges, as the scale and speed of potential fund reallocation remain uncertain given Japan’s extended period of aggressive liquidity injections and entrenched low-rate behaviour among households and financial institutions.

(Source: Reuters)

• Hurricane Melissa exacted a toll on the quarterly earnings of TransJamaican Highway (TJH) and Fontana Limited (Fontana), highlighting that the impact of the superstorm’s October 2025 landfall extended across sectors.
• For the December 2025 quarter (Q4 2025), TJH’s net profit slipped 7.7% to US$8.6Mn, primarily driven by lower revenues and higher operating expenses. Revenue declined 2.5% to US$23.74Mn, reflecting the 15-day toll suspension following Hurricane Melissa, which resulted in an estimated revenue loss of approximately US$3.5Mn.
• Its quarterly performance was further dampened by higher operating expenses, which rose 31.4% to US$5.8Mn due to higher amortisation, maintenance activity and consultancy costs. A 43.3% rise in administrative expenses due to hurricane-related relief and recovery initiatives and spending on a Road and Operational Maintenance software system also helped to push up costs.
• For Fontana, Melissa’s impact on its quarterly profits was more pronounced, with earnings falling by 38.7% to $201Mn, despite marginal revenue growth. Hurricane disruptions caused a 16-day closure of its Fairview Montego Bay store, its second-largest location by sales. Its corporate offices also sustained damage, and the Savanna-la-Mar branch faced similar Melissa-induced disruptions.
• In light of the disruption to its operations, Fontana faced lower sales volumes in its Western Stores, operating inefficiencies from shortened hours, and logistics challenges in rebalancing inventory. As a result, revenues only rose by just 5.6% to $2.9Bn, while direct costs outpaced revenues by 7.4% to $1.77Bn. This meant gross profits increased by only 2.8%, and margins narrowed to 38.2% from 39.2%. With melissa sapping revenue growth, operating expenses and finance costs tipped the scales even further. Expenses grew by 22.2% to $840.85Mn, and there was 72.4% increase in finance costs to $73.83Mn.
• Though Melissa put a dent in both companies’ quarterly earnings, TJH's full-year earnings grew by 17% to US$36.6Mn, amid sustained traffic growth and higher t-Tag penetration across the network in the first half of the year.
• Meanwhile, Fontana’s YTD earnings are down 36.5% despite 12.1% revenue growth. Higher operating expenses of $1.66Mn (+22.3%) reflect fixed-cost absorption during store closures, integration costs tied to Monarch locations it acquired, and setup costs for three new Ora concept stores. Finance costs also surged 72.4% due to borrowings to support the Monarch Acquisitions. However, while these weighed on near-term profitability, management emphasised that a portion of the expenses represents strategic growth investments.
• Since the start of the year, TJH’s stock price has increased by 44.5%, while Fontana’s stock price has decreased by 4.8%, to close at $6.66 and $7.42, respectively, on February 17, 2026. At this price, TJH trades at a P/E of 14.4x, below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 21.7x, while Fontana trades at a P/E of 20.6x, above the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 18.5x.

(Sources: Fontana and TJH Financial Release, NCBCM Research)

• December 2025 quarter earnings releases for securities dealers, VM Investments Limited (VMIL) and Barita Investments Limited (BIL) told divergent stories. VMIL’s earnings rebounded, while Barita saw its earnings slip over the same period.
• For VMIL, quarterly earnings increased to $155.8Mn compared to a $91.5Mn loss in the prior-year period as a 44.4% revenue decline was countered by a 64.7% reduction in total expenses. Its lower revenues reflected a downturn in global financial markets that weighed on trading activity and heightened capital market volatility that adversely impacted deal flow. Investor confidence was further tempered by ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty across major developed economies. Meanwhile, its improved cost base was largely attributable to favourable adjustments to credit loss provisions, reflecting strengthened collateral positions across VMIL’s loan portfolio, along with lower management fees.
• However, VMIL’s quarterly improvement was not enough to raise annual earnings, which tumbled by 68.7% to J$173.87Mn. Macroeconomic headwinds, subdued capital markets activity and the absence of a one $422Mn one-off gain from the sale of Carilend¹, which significantly elevated the prior year’s earnings, were the culprits. Looking ahead, VMIL’s management has indicated that it will focus on revenue growth through innovative asset management products, deeper client engagement, and enhanced operational efficiency via greater technology adoption.
• Meanwhile, BIL reported a 62% decline in net profits to J$211Mn for its first quarter ended December 31, 2025, reflecting both weaker revenues (-17.9%) and higher operating expenses (OPEX: +21.5%).
• The decline in revenues was primarily due to lower equity valuations amid softer market conditions. On a positive note, net interest income increased 31%, supported by balance sheet growth. However, non-interest income declined 24%, driven by a reversal of investment gains. In the same breath, OPEX was spurred by lower credit loss reversals relative to the prior year and higher administrative costs. These expenses, however, were partially offset by a 6% reduction in staff expenses.
• Consequently, operating profits fell to J$254.35Mn, from J$675.39Mn, while operating margin declined to 21.6% from 47.0% in the previous corresponding quarter, leading to lower quarterly earnings.
• Despite the quarterly slowdown, BIL has made moves that could raise future earnings. During the quarter, it acquired 100% of JN Fund Managers Limited (JNFM). This is set to strengthen the company’s asset management platform and position it to expand its recurring fee-based revenues across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean. However, value accretion from the acquisition will require disciplined execution to realise revenue and cost synergies.
• Barita also continues to transition its alternative investment portfolio toward development-driven, cash-generating real estate projects. With two major sites advancing through pre-development, the Group is shifting from mark-to-market valuation gains toward more predictable, project-based returns, aligning with its long-term capital deployment strategy.
• Since the start of the year, VMIL and BARITA’s stock prices have decreased by 15.42% and 4.19% to close at $1.81 and $69.01 on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. At this price, VMIL trades at a P/B of 0.88x, below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.11x, while BIL's P/B of 2.36x sits above this sector average.

_______________________

¹In 2019, VMIL made a private equity investment in fintech company Carilend.

(Sources: VMIL and BARITA Financial Release)

• As the fifth annual Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo got underway on Tuesday in Georgetown, the country’s President, Dr Irfaan Ali, made clear that his government is eager to partner with neighbouring Suriname to jointly develop natural gas resources.
• President Ali has been pushing for a Guyana- Suriname partnership for years. Since being re-elected in September 2025, the Guyanese leader has been championing a second natural gas project in the county of Berbice, which is at the Suriname border.
• On Tuesday, he again spoke about the Berbice plans, this time emphasising that the second gas-to-energy plant will be built in the county, and that a new deepwater port will spur faster industrial development there.
• However, he remained focused on neighbouring Suriname and an integrated gas project. “We’re hoping that very quickly, we can have some decisions because our investors are waiting on those decisions. We want this partnership,” the Guyanese President said.
• Guyana has about a decade of rapid development in the oil and gas industry and has established itself as a major player globally for its production. Guyana is hoping to build in-country capacity too, to meet local energy demands but also to export across the region, President Ali said at the conference.
• Across the border, new oil and gas developments are taking shape in Suriname. Guyana’s President believes that his country is a solid partner, not just because of proximity but because expansion plans are already taking shape.

(Source: Newsroom Guyana)

• US initial jobless claims fell more than expected, declining by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ended February 14, below the 225,000 consensus forecast. The drop follows a late-January rise to 232,000 and is consistent with a stabilising labour market.
• Federal Reserve officials view labour conditions as steady but fragile. Minutes from the January 27–28 FOMC meeting showed the vast majority of policymakers saw signs of stabilisation, though they also highlighted downside risks, including the possibility that weaker labour demand could push unemployment higher in a low-hiring environment.
• Recent employment gains remain concentrated in defensive sectors, with January job growth largely driven by healthcare and social assistance, suggesting limited breadth and potential vulnerability in the broader labour market.
• Structural and policy headwinds are constraining hiring. Economists pointed to immigration policy restrictions, lingering tariff uncertainty, and the growing impact of artificial intelligence adoption as factors contributing to employer caution.
• Continuing claims increased by 17,000 to 1.869Mn for the week ended February 7, indicating that laid-off workers are facing difficulty securing new employment, despite stable inflows into unemployment benefits.
• Broader labour-market indicators also show emerging slack. The median duration of unemployment is near four-year highs, while recent college graduates are particularly affected by weak hiring and are often excluded from claims data due to limited work history, underscoring underlying softness beneath otherwise stable headline indicators.

(Source: Reuters)

• US unsecured loan balances reached a record high in 2025, rising 10.0% to US$276.0Bn, driven primarily by strong demand from subprime borrowers, according to TransUnion’s Credit Industry Insights Report.
• Borrower participation increased meaningfully, with 26.4Mn consumers holding unsecured loans as of end-December, up from 24.5Mn a year earlier, reflecting expanding reliance on non-collateralised credit.
• Debt consolidation and cost-of-living pressures are key drivers. As interest rates began to ease, many consumers used unsecured loans to refinance credit-card balances, while lower-income households increasingly relied on these products to manage elevated living costs amid weak wage growth.
• Credit-card exposure continues to expand but with tighter risk controls. Total credit-card balances rose 4.0% to US$1.15Tn, though issuers reduced initial credit limits to mitigate risk as lending to lower-income borrowers increased. Delinquencies have also been gradually trending upward.
• Credit growth is expected to normalise in 2026. TransUnion forecasts a 5.7% increase in new unsecured loan originations, signalling a moderation from the stronger post-pandemic volatility in consumer credit demand.
• Mortgage and refinancing activity should improve modestly, with new mortgages projected to grow 4.0% and refinancings up 4.2%, supported by borrowers gaining access to lower rates relative to recent mortgage vintages.

(Source: Reuters)