• The International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on April 14, 2026, titled "Global Economy in the Shadow of War". It warned that the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February 2026 has significantly threatened global economic momentum.
• Under the IMF's reference forecast¹, global growth is projected to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. This is down from 3.4% in 2024-25 and well below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000-2019. The forecast for 2026 is revised downward by 0.2 percentage points and that for 2027 is unchanged, compared with those in the January 2026 WEO Update.
• Additionally, global headline inflation is expected to increase to 4.4% in 2026 and decline to 3.7% in 2027, marking upward revisions for both years.
• Absent the war, global growth would have been revised upward. Forecasts based on pre-conflict assumptions would have shown a slight upward revision of 2026 growth relative to that forecasted in the January WEO Update, by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%. Hence, the downward revision for 2026 largely reflects the disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East, partly offset by carryover from recent strong data and reduced tariff rates.
• The impact is far from equal across countries. Emerging markets and developing economies face a 0.3 percentage point downward revision to growth, while advanced economies are largely unchanged. The impact on commodity-importing developing nations with pre-existing financial fragilities is described as being much more pronounced".
• In a severe scenario where energy infrastructure in the conflict region suffers significant damage, global growth could collapse to 2.0% in 2026 with inflation rising above 6.0% by 2027. The blow to emerging and developing economies would be nearly twice that felt by advanced economies.
• The IMF called on central banks to remain vigilant against supply shocks destabilising inflation expectations. Governments are being urged to keep any fiscal support targeted and temporary, while countries should cooperate to restore stability in international trade and economic relations.

________________________

¹This assumes the war will be short-lived and disruptions will fade by mid-2026.

(Source: IMF)

• A second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is under discussion but not yet officially scheduled, according to a White House official. President Trump later told the New York Post the next talks "could be happening over next two days" in Islamabad, Pakistan, after initially suggesting they would be slow and be held in Europe.
• The push for renewed talks follows a weekend of stalled negotiations in Islamabad that ended without a deal, with key sticking points over Iran's nuclear ambitions left unresolved and both sides accusing the other of shifting the goalposts.
• Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation alongside special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, said Monday that "the ball is in the Iranian court," while top Iranian officials accused the U.S. of acting in bad faith.
• Despite the mounting tensions, hopes for a deal remain alive. Oil prices fell, and stocks rose on Tuesday morning on reports that negotiations could restart before the fragile two-week ceasefire expires on April 21.

(Source: CNBC)

• Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, has formally called for the creation of a dedicated Caribbean Tourism Bank. He’s urging the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to champion a region-specific financial institution that can develop tailored products and financing solutions to meet the unique needs of the Caribbean tourism sector.
• He made the call during remarks at a luncheon hosted in his honour, following his meeting with members of the IDB Board of Directors in Washington DC.
• Addressing senior development finance officials, Minister Bartlett argued that the Caribbean has long suffered from the absence of an investment framework tailored to tourism – an industry he described as “the world’s fastest and most immediately convertible economic activity”. “We think that the time has come for a regional financial institution dedicated to tourism in the Caribbean… a Tourism Bank where products can be crafted and developed, that are responsive to tourism’s demands and supply dynamics,” he stated.
• Bartlett used the occasion to highlight what he described as a persistent ambivalence towards tourism investment in the Caribbean – an outlook he linked partly to historical and psychological legacies that have obscured the sector’s true economic power.
• He further underscored tourism’s proven role as a catalyst for community development, pointing to the visible transformation of townships across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean where tourist activity has brought roads, water, electricity, and economic opportunities to communities that once lacked such infrastructure.
• In urging the IDB to take a leadership role in advancing the Tourism Bank concept, Mr. Bartlett noted that the institution’s regional presence, capital base, and development mandate uniquely position it to partner with Caribbean governments in building the financial architecture the sector needs.
• The call aligns with Jamaica’s broader advocacy for stronger regional financial institutions and underscores the country’s leadership in global discussions on tourism resilience, particularly in the wake of Hurricane Melissa’s devastating impact on Jamaica’s western parishes in 2025 and the sector’s remarkable recovery heading into 2026

(Source: Reuters)

• On April 8, 2026, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Aruba to 'A-' from 'BBB+' and affirmed its 'A-2' short-term rating. The transfer and convertibility assessment was revised to A- from BBB+. The outlook is stable.
• The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that Aruba’s fiscal discipline will underpin a continued decrease in its net debt and interest burden amid a cooperative relationship with the Netherlands¹. Expectations that the tourism-concentrated economy will continue to grow over the next few years, supporting fiscal and external balances, also factored into the rating outlook.
• Aruba's growing economy and fiscal surpluses have supported continued debt repayments that, along with strong, growing public sector assets, improved the government’s fiscal profile and external position. The economy will continue to be dominated by the tourism sector, but capacity constraints will temper growth. S&P expects tourism-driven growth of 1.9% in 2026, down from 3.9% in 2025.
• Ongoing growth will lead to fiscal surpluses and will continue to support debt reduction. Of note, in 2025, Aruba posted a surplus of 3.6% of GDP and repaid debt of 140 million Aruban florins. The agency believes the government will continue to control its spending such that the average change in net general government debt over the next four years will be close to negative 2.2% of GDP, indicating debt will decrease over time.
• The country’s external position has improved in tandem with its economic and fiscal recovery since the pandemic. Aruba’s growing external pension assets and reduced external debt have contributed to a stronger narrow net external debt position, which will average 24% of current account payments. At the same time, tourism sector receipts will likely lead to ongoing current account surpluses of about 2.6% of GDP over the forecast horizon. These dynamics will contribute to gross external financing needs remaining above 100% of current account receipts and usable reserves during the forecast horizon.
• That said, the sovereign is highly dependent on tourism, and this, together with its small size and low-lying elevation, makes its economy and debt vulnerable to external shocks, which was evident during the pandemic when debt rose substantially.
• Notwithstanding, these risks are mitigated by Aruba’s access to rapid funding provided by the Netherlands. This highlights the benefits it receives from its status as a member of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, bolstering its political and institutional stability, policy predictability, and judicial certainty.

______________________________

¹Owing to its status as a member of the Kingdom of the Netherlands

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Costa Rica, on Saturday, April 11, 2026, received the first group of migrants from other countries deported from the ​United States (U.S.) under an agreement signed in March between ‌the two countries.
• Costa Rica's General Directorate of Migration and Foreigners said the 25 migrants included citizens of Albania, Cameroon, China, Guatemala, Honduras, ​India, Kenya and Morocco. Under the agreement, Costa Rica will ​receive up to 25 people per week, while the United States will provide financial support, and the IOM (International Organisation for Migration) will offer food and accommodation during the ​first seven days of migrants' stay in the country.
• The agreement is ​part of U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to ramp up his mass deportation ‌program, ⁠including removing immigrants to third countries that are not their country of origin. The administration has said that such third-country deportations are necessary to remove people whose home countries refuse to accept ​them. But these deportations ​have faced criticism ⁠from Democrats and human rights advocates for stranding migrants in countries far from their homelands, where ​they often don't speak the language or have any ​family ⁠
• In February, Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee released a report that said the deportation agreements with foreign governments cost American taxpayers millions ⁠of ​dollars, at times more than $1Mn per ​person shipped out of the country, and produce little benefit.
• Furthermore, while the agreement may strengthen diplomatic ties with the United States, it could potentially weaken Costa Rica’s tourism-dependent economy and dampen broader economic growth if negative perceptions, media coverage, or social pressures reduce its appeal to international visitors.
• That said, this risk is set against a still-stable macroeconomic outlook, as BMI analysts forecast real GDP growth in Costa Rica of 3.9% for 2026, following a 4.6% expansion in 2025. This slight slowdown is more in line with the pre-pandemic long-term run rate of 3.8% real growth, suggesting a normalisation of growth rather than a sharp downturn.

(Sources: Reuters, NCBCM Research, BMI - A Fitch Solutions Company)

• President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, April 12, 2026, dimming hopes for a quick end to the conflict and escalating a standoff with Iran that has already triggered the worst energy shock in history. The blockade, which targets vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, took effect on Monday, April 13, 2026.
• Tanker traffic through the strait ground to a halt within hours of the announcement, reversing a gradual recovery seen after a two-week ceasefire, with at least two vessels turning back. Crude oil surged as investors scrambled to price in tighter supply, with US WTI futures rising more than 8% and Brent crude over 7% to $101.86.
• Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the flow has since slowed to a trickle, upending supply chains for oil, fertilisers, apparel and industrial goods. Analysts have warned that clearing the backlog could take weeks even after a resolution.
• A full blockade would further tighten the squeeze on global supply, with analysts warning oil prices could rise to around $150 per barrel. Commodity prices for fertiliser and helium, critical inputs for food production and semiconductor manufacturing, are likely to keep climbing, fanning inflation that is already accelerating.
• The blockade risks drawing major economies into the conflict, particularly China and India, as a blanket ban on tankers carrying Iranian crude threatens to cut off supply flows. Further, it could potentially reignite geopolitical tensions and expose countries with safe-passage arrangements to the crossfire.
• While some analysts view the blockade as a negotiating tactic within ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, others warn it carries significant downside risks, including military escalation, legal challenges under international law, and prolonged supply disruptions, with the potential to trigger an energy shock comparable to or worse than the 1970s oil crisis.

(Source: CNBC)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and International Energy Agency (IEA) on Monday urged countries to avoid hoarding energy supplies and imposing export controls, warning this could worsen the biggest shock ever to the global energy market.
• IEA chief, Fatih Birol, said several countries were holding onto stocks and imposing export restrictions, and appealed to all countries to let energy stocks flow to the markets. He stressed that energy supplies should be allowed to flow to markets, while IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged countries to “do no harm,” warning such actions would worsen disequilibrium.
• Birol also noted during an Atlantic Council event that the U.S. military blockade of ships leaving Iran’s ports, which began on Monday, could exacerbate the worst global energy disruption ever. With more than 80 oil and gas facilities damaged, and prices for oil, gas, and fertiliser rising, concerns about food security, job losses, and broader economic strain are mounting.
• Officials warned that no country is immune, with the impact expected to be more severe for regions already facing supply concerns, particularly in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and small island economies.
• The IEA chief noted that while he hopes another oil stockpile release is not needed, the agency was ready to act if the energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran requires it. The 32-member IEA agreed ​last month to release 400 Mn barrels of oil from reserves, the largest-ever coordinated release, in ​a bid to calm oil markets. 

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector has grown steadily despite occasional setbacks from hurricanes. The country is now the largest BPO hub in the Caribbean, employing between 40,000 and 50,000 people and generating close to $1Bn in annual revenue. The total workspace dedicated to BPO operations across the island has expanded to more than three million square feet, according to the government data.
• Considering this, the government is now focused on moving the industry up the value chain, from basic voice support to higher-skilled services such as data analytics, compliance monitoring, complex customer engagement, and knowledge-based processing. At the launch of the Informatics Park Incubator, a plug-and-play facility^[1], Delano Seiveright, Minister of State for Industry and Commerce, emphasised this shift.
• Jamaica is also strengthening its infrastructure and regulations. The country has adopted global PCI-DSS standards for payment security, and its Data Protection Act includes several key elements of Europe’s GDPR. These measures have allowed Jamaican BPOs to handle sensitive work such as Anti-Money Laundering (AML) monitoring and Know Your Customer (KYC) processes.
• A similar upgrade is happening in healthcare outsourcing. The government has started training workers in ICD-11 medical coding, and some local BPOs are now managing revenue cycle operations for U.S. hospitals, from patient registration to final claims processing. Training is also expanding into telehealth support and care management for chronic conditions.
• Workforce development programmes, supported by the HEART/NSTA Trust, are likely to create a steady pipeline of trained talent in medical office administration and digital health services. This allows companies that start small in the incubator to grow quickly into larger, specialised operations.
• Jamaica’s push into higher-value BPO services positions it to capture more resilient, higher-margin contracts globally. However, this strategy remains vulnerable to external risks such as increased competition from lower-cost or more technologically advanced markets. Tightening data privacy regulations in key client regions and rapid automation/artificial intelligence (AI) adoption could also reduce demand for mid-skill outsourcing roles unless workforce upskilling keeps pace.

(Sources: Nearshore Americas & NCBCM Research)

^[1] As the name “plug-and-play” suggests, companies can move in, connect to ready-made infrastructure, and start working almost immediately, without spending months on setup.

• Jamaica’s economy has been hit by external headwinds over the last 12 months, but the largest shock was Hurricane Melissa (October 28, 2025), the most extreme tropical system to make landfall in the country’s history, with estimated damage and losses of 56.7% of GDP, comparable to Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
• Hurricane Melissa was one of the most devastating storms ever to hit Jamaica, significantly more intense than Gilbert, highlighting the country’s increasing exposure to severe natural hazard events.
• In response, Jamaica’s 2022 Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) policy introduced a comprehensive framework to address relief, recovery, and reconstruction across both high-frequency and low-frequency events. The framework is also based on the concept of ‘risk layering’, meaning that different levels of risk are covered by different financial instruments, with each instrument designed to be best suited to the risk it is intended to address. As such, resilience has been built through a comprehensive disaster risk financing strategy.
• This framework made available US$662Mn in government resources for immediate recovery, later increased to over US$1.07Bn with International Monetary Fund (IMF) support (US$415Mn in January 2026), helping to address urgent needs such as medical attention, shelters, food security, and restoration of energy, water, and transport.
•  Additional instruments, including the US$150Mn catastrophe bond (2024–2027), which was fully triggered by Melissa, demonstrate proactive financial preparedness, even though total damages (approximately US$12.2Bn) far exceeded the current available resources of US$1.08Bn.
• While recovery will take several years, Jamaica’s strong track record of fiscal management and pre-arranged financing mechanisms have been critical in enabling a rapid response, supporting recovery efforts, and strengthening long-term resilience to extreme natural disasters.

(Source: Inter-American Development Bank)

• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has upgraded its Regional Scale Local Currency (LC) and Foreign Currency (FC) Ratings for the Government of Barbados (GOB) by one-notch to CariBBB+. The ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of this obligor, adjudged in relation to other obligors in the Caribbean is adequate.
• The one-notch upgrade reflects strengthening across key macroeconomic and policy pillars, including income and economic structure, fiscal policy, monetary/exchange rate management, external sector strength, and political stability.
• Key drivers of the rating improvement include a continued decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, which fell to 94.6% in December 2025 from 97.2% a year earlier, supported by sustained fiscal consolidation efforts. Economic growth remains strong and broad-based, driven mainly by tourism, business services, and construction activity, while tourism performance continues to exceed pre-pandemic levels with record long-stay arrivals supporting foreign exchange earnings.
• In addition, the successful completion of the IMF Extended Fund Facility programme has further strengthened policy credibility and enabled access to additional IMF support through the Resilience and Sustainability Trust. Fiscal performance has also improved, with the primary balance increasing to 4.0% of GDP in FY 2024/25, exceeding expectations, while external buffers remain strong, with gross international reserves providing more than six months of import cover and supporting external debt servicing capacity.
• CariCRIS maintains a stable outlook, expecting continued fiscal discipline (primary surpluses above 3%) and moderate growth to support debt reduction over the medium term. Positive rating triggers include a reduction in debt below 85% of GDP (currently at 93.3%), which would signal further strengthening of the sovereign balance sheet, as well as sustained fiscal surpluses above 3% of GDP over the next 12 months, which would reinforce the medium-term debt reduction trajectory.
• Negative rating risks include import cover falling below 12 weeks without credible sources of external reserve replenishment, delays in tourism-related investment projects scheduled for 2026 that could weaken growth prospects. It also includes slippage in the implementation of the Barbados Economic Reform and Transformation (BERT) 2026 programme that could undermine fiscal consolidation, and a sustained deterioration in the fiscal balance that weakens the primary surplus and slows progress toward debt reduction targets.

(Source: CariCRIS)