• S&P Global Ratings has revised Trinidad and Tobago’s outlook from stable to negative, while maintaining its investment-grade rating at BBB-. The agency cited ongoing fiscal weaknesses, falling energy production, and increasing debt as factors that could lead to a downgrade within two years. Further, limited monetary flexibility, including a heavily managed exchange rate, constrains the country's ability to respond to potential shocks. Per capita GDP growth is also below the average for sovereigns with a similar income level, constraining the rating.
• The negative outlook reflects S&P’s view that there is at least a one-in-three chance it could lower the ratings over the next 6-24 months. The country’s fiscal and external buffers have been gradually weakening over time, and its long-term economic growth has been low.
• It further highlighted that despite many efforts, there has been only limited progress by previous administrations in diversifying the economy, leaving it vulnerable to volatile energy prices, while output from the oil and gas sector has recently declined.
• S&P’s rating could be lowered over the next 6 to 24 months if the government fails to take timely corrective steps to strengthen the sustainability of public finances, ensure long-term balanced economic growth, and maintain the country’s strong external profile. Failure to address a prolonged weakening of public finances and diminution of foreign exchange reserves could reflect institutional shortcomings that limit the government’s capacity to build buffers that enhance the country's ability to respond to negative shocks.
• However, the outlook could be revised to stable over the next 24 months if it believes government policies will improve fiscal sustainability, lead to more favourable long-term GDP growth prospects, and sustain the country's external profile.
• S&P expects economic growth to remain weak for the next two to three years, as oil and gas production have fallen in recent years. The volatile energy sector typically represents more than one-quarter of GDP and government revenues, and almost 80% of exports, on average, in the past five years. The ratings also reflect a moderate government debt burden, which has risen in recent years, and shortcomings in timely economic data

(Source: S&P Global)

• The Bank of Mexico(Banxico) cut its benchmark interest rate to its lowest level since May 2022 on Thursday and indicated it would consider further easing at future meetings, amid ongoing concerns about global trade tensions and sluggish economic growth in Latin America's second-largest economy. Banxico, as the central bank is known, reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5% in a divided vote. Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath was the sole member of the five-member board who voted to hold the interest rate at 7.75%.
• The rate cut was largely expected by the market, and Banxico is balancing dual challenges: bringing down inflation while also stimulating the economy amid tepid economic growth. Easing monetary policy could spur the economy but also fuel inflation in Latin America’s second-largest economy.
• In a statement on Thursday, the bank said it took into account "weak economic growth" and fluctuating global trade policies in its decision to lower borrowing costs. Still, the fact that Banxico reduced the interest rate by a quarter point instead of a half point – as it had four times earlier this year – underscores concern about sticky inflation, particularly the closely-watched core index.
• Annual core inflation, which is considered a good gauge of price trends because it strips out volatile food and energy prices, has been rising in recent months and hit 4.26% in the first half of September. Banxico targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. Headline inflation also accelerated in the first half of September, reaching 3.74%, up from 3.49% in the first half of August.
• In updated inflation forecasts released on Thursday, Banxico raised its estimate for year-end annual core inflation to 4.0% in the fourth quarter, up from its previous estimate of 3.7%. The bank said in its quarterly report in August that Mexico's economy - while anaemic - is showing resilience in the face of an uncertain business environment and global trade pressures. The bank strengthened its economic growth forecast for the year to 0.6%, up from a previous estimate of 0.1%. It is estimated that the economy will grow 1.1% in 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the second quarter amid strong consumer spending and business investment, though momentum appears to be slowing as the effects of tariffs and policy uncertainty start to filter through.
• The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday also reflected a sharp contraction in the trade deficit as the flood of imports slowed. The economy's resilience was underscored by other data showing strong demand by businesses for equipment in August. The demand was driven by an artificial intelligence (AI) spending boom, and a drop in first-time applications for state unemployment benefits last week as companies hoard workers.
• The data at face value suggested further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve were probably unwarranted. Tepid hiring blamed by economists on President Donald Trump's import duties and an immigration crackdown caused job growth to almost stall in the three months through August, prompting the U.S. central bank to resume its policy easing last week.
• Gross domestic product increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualised rate last quarter, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third GDP estimate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 3.3% pace in the second quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth to be unrevised.
• A sharp narrowing of the trade deficit as imports collapsed after a record surge in the January-March quarter was the main driver of the rebound in GDP last quarter. The smaller trade deficit added a record 4.83 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth after slicing off 4.68pp in the first quarter.
• Imports surged in the January-March quarter as businesses rushed to beat the duties, which boosted the nation's average tariff rate to its highest level in a century. Both the first- and second-quarter GDP readings are not a true reflection of the economy's health because of the wild swings in imports.
• Trade could add to GDP growth in the third quarter. A separate report from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed the goods trade deficit contracted 16.8% to $85.5 billion in August as imports plunged.
• Economists are bracing for lacklustre growth in the second half of the year because of the lingering drag from trade policy uncertainty as well as mass deportations, which are hampering job growth through reduced labour supply. Growth estimates for the third quarter are converging around a 2.5% rate.

(Source: Reuters)

• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development lifted its 2025 growth forecast for the first time in more than a year but warned that the effects of tariffs and war will weigh on growth in 2026.
• The report, which covers economies in emerging Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, raised the 2025 growth outlook slightly to 3.1%, but noted a growing divergence as emerging European countries' growth lagged expansion elsewhere.
• The latest report, EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik told Reuters, showed "a story of multiple pressure points, and a story of divergence in performance between emerging Europe and our other regions of operations."
• Rising debt, resurgent inflation, prolonged wars and tariffs were menacing all EBRD economies, Javorcik warned. And while U.S. imports from those countries had grown in the first half of the year, that was driven by the first quarter, before tariffs hit. "Going forward, we are going to see the impact of tariffs biting," she said.
• Debt and the need to cut spending are weighing on growth in EBRD's European countries, including Poland, Hungary and Romania, while countries in Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Turkey are pegged for faster growth. However, Javorcik said debt payments as a percentage of GDP are rising in most countries, casting a shadow over the long-term sustainability of public finances.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s trade deficit widened by 7.5% to US$2.39Bn between January and May 2025, when compared to US$2.22Bn over the corresponding period in 2024, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). The increase reflects both higher import spending and a reduction in the value of exports.
• Between January and May 2025, Jamaica’s spending on imports totalled US$3.16Bn, up US$109.2Mn (3.6%), while the country earned approximately US$773Mn from exports, down US$57.7Mn (6.9%).
• Increased imports of Raw Material/Intermediate Goods, Consumer Goods, and Fuels & Lubricants, which rose by 7.3%, 7.1% and 8.3%, respectively, accounted for the higher import spend. The 6.9% decline in exports was due to a 26.8% fall in the value of Mineral Fuels.
• The top five import markets during the period were the United States of America (U.S.), China, Brazil, Nigeria and Japan. Expenditure on imports of goods from these countries increased by 9.8% to US$1.96Bn, largely due to a rise in the value of imports of Mineral Fuels and Chemicals. On the other hand, Jamaica's biggest export markets included the U.S., the Russian Federation, Iceland, Canada and the Netherlands. Export revenues from these countries decreased by 0.7% to US$558.5Mn, primarily due to a reduction in the value of exports of Mineral Fuels.
• With Jamaica’s exports down 6.9% the 10.0% tariff imposed by the U.S., which accounts for more than 40% of exports, could pose headwinds to its total domestic export revenues going forward. This would create a higher trade deficit balance, reversing the 3.0% trade deficit narrowing in 2024.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Companies Office of Jamaica (COJ) will soon initiate a cleanup of its company register, as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen the country’s anti-money laundering framework and enhance transparency and compliance.
• Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Registrar of Companies, Shellie Leon, informed that the COJ monitors both active and inactive companies in a bid to strengthen the anti-money laundering framework.
• She noted that for some dormant companies, the COJ is finding that even though they don’t make returns, they don’t have an actual office that they operate from; some of them might have property. “So, we are cooperating with, for example, the National Land Agency (NLA), because these dormant companies are a gateway for fraud to be committed. So there are persons who find out that these companies are dormant, make certain changes, they take people’s property etc. So we monitor both dormant and active, and we are working with other partners in that effort,” she informed.
• In endorsing the initiative, Portfolio Minister, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, commended the COJ for its continued role in strengthening the country’s regulatory integrity. “Frauds in banks… almost invariably happen in dormant accounts. When I managed banks, whether it was in Oman, here in Jamaica or elsewhere, we always insisted that the auditors must go through [the dormant accounts]…” he said.
• Minister Hill emphasised that COJ plays a central role in ensuring Jamaica’s adherence to international financial regulations. He noted that the collaborative efforts of the COJ, alongside key Government Ministries and agencies – including the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, the Ministry of Justice and Constitutional Affairs, and the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) – played a vital role in Jamaica’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Grey List and, subsequently, the European Union (EU) List.
• “…This combination of strong governance and robust regulatory compliance makes Jamaica a safe place to invest, the right place to register a company, grow a business and confidently engage with the Companies Office of Jamaica,” he said.
• Meanwhile, Ms. Leon reported an increase in the registration of companies and businesses. “We have seen an increase in the service industry, IT (information technology) services, general merchandise and construction,” she said. Minister Hill encouraged stakeholders across diverse sectors – including the creative and entertainment industries – to formalise their operations by registering with the COJ.

(Source: JIS)

• The Dominican government, led by Vice President Raquel Peña Rodríguez, approved the draft General State Budget for 2026 during its fifty-second Council of Ministers meeting on Tuesday. The proposal, totalling RD$1.74Tn (20.1% of GDP), will be submitted to the National Congress before October 1, in line with constitutional requirements.
• Minister of the Presidency José Ignacio Paliza explained that the plan prioritises public investment, with capital spending set to increase by RD$39Bn compared to the initial 2025 budget. Funds will focus on infrastructure in transportation, housing, drinking water, and sanitation, aimed at boosting the economy and improving the quality of life.
• About 46% of total spending is earmarked for social services, including a guaranteed 4% of GDP for education, expanded health and social security budgets, and more resources for sports ahead of the 2026 Central American and Caribbean Games.
• Budget Director José Rijo Presbot outlined the framework, which assumes 4.5% GDP growth and 4% inflation. The meeting also reviewed progress in institutional performance, priority government goals in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and industry, and the 2026 Government Program Prioritisation Plan.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Mexican state oil firm Pemex's financial debt should end the third quarter at around $80Bn, according to the Finance Minister.
• Pemex is one of the world's most heavily indebted energy companies, with nearly $100 billion in financial debt and some $22Bn owed to suppliers and contractors.
• The oil producer is slated to receive some 263.5Bn pesos ($14.30Bn) from the government in 2026 to help the firm meet its debt and loan payments, according to the government's budget plan.
• Mexico is set to raise around $14Bn through two fresh bond issues, launched earlier this month to go toward Pemex, with the majority of the funds paying for a sweeping Pemex bond buyback.

(Source: Reuters)

• Sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged in August, but the boost from declining mortgage rates could be limited by a weakening labour market. New home sales shot up 20.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 800,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. The sales pace for July was revised higher to a rate of 664,000 units from the previously reported pace of 652,000 units.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which make up about 14% of U.S. home sales, easing to a rate of 650,000 units. New home sales, which are counted at the signing of a contract, are volatile on a month-to-month basis and subject to big revisions. They soared 15.4% on a year-over-year basis in August.
• Mortgage rates declined as the Federal Reserve prepared to resume easing monetary policy. The U.S. central bank cut its benchmark overnight interest rate last week by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% target. The Fed projected a steady pace of reductions for the rest of 2025.
• The rate on the popular 30-year mortgage dropped to an 11-month low of 6.26% last week, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. It has been edging lower since mid-July and is down from around 7.04% in mid-January.
• However, the labour market has softened, with non-farm payrolls gains averaging only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months to August compared to 82,000 during the same period last year.

(Source: Reuters)

• German business morale unexpectedly declined in September, a survey showed on Wednesday, as the economic outlook remained weak. The Ifo Institute¹ said its business climate index decreased to 87.7 in September from a revised 88.9 in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 89.3.
• Companies were less satisfied with their current business, and expectations also clouded noticeably. There is a growing sense that the promised reforms of the new government to revive the economy are slower and less far-reaching than initially expected.
• The drop in Ifo's expectations index reflects a sobering mood, as economic reforms have been very sluggish, said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
• Germany has struggled to regain momentum this year, with the economy contracting by 0.3% in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year, as U.S. demand slowed following months of buying ahead in anticipation of U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs.
• Capital Economics expects growth will only accelerate meaningfully next year, when fiscal policy is set to be loosened significantly, senior Europe economist Franziska Palmas said.
• The Ifo index declined across all sectors with the exception of the construction industry, the data showed. The unexpectedly sharp decline in the Ifo index dampens hopes for a swift economic recovery, said Robin Winkler, Germany's chief economist at Deutsche Bank.
• Nevertheless, he noted that business activity in Germany grew at an accelerated pace in September, hitting its fastest pace in 16 months, the HCOB German flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index showed on Tuesday. "The German economy is growing again but only weakly,” Winkler said.

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The Ifo Institute for Economic Research is a Munich-based research institution. Ifo is an acronym for Information and Forschung

(Source: Reuters)