• Brazil’s ethanol and sugar producers have criticised the US government’s decision to impose new 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, arguing that the move marks a setback in trade cooperation between the two countries.
• According to Brazil’s sugarcane and bioenergy industry group UNICA, the US was Brazil’s second-largest foreign market for ethanol in 2025 after South Korea, accounting for 253Mn litres of exports valued at US$163.0Mn.
• The US also accounted for 420,000 metric tons of sugar exports from Brazil in 2025, well below the 1.12Mn tons shipped in 2024. UNICA said Brazilian sugar exports continue to face US tariffs and market-access restrictions, while Brazil maintains a non-discriminatory policy toward ethanol.
• US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer justified the tariffs by citing unfair trade practices and Brazil’s ethanol market access, claims rejected by Brazil. Industry groups said the decline in Brazilian imports of US ethanol reflects rising domestic corn ethanol production rather than a breach of trade rules, while NovaBio argued that Washington is seeking greater ethanol access without offering concessions on Brazilian sugar imports.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Costa Rican Central Bank (BCCR) left its monetary policy rate unchanged at 3.25% at its latest meeting on May 21, in line with Fitch BMI expectations. The decision reflected external risks, especially uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict and its potential economic effects.
• Costa Rica’s inflation rate remained negative at -0.32% in June 2026, although month-on-month price changes were positive in three of the first six months of the year. The June reading was the highest monthly increase since December 2024, largely influenced by higher domestic fuel prices following the start of the US-Iran conflict.
• With the next policy meeting scheduled for July 23, BMI Analyst expects the BCCR to remain cautious and keep the policy rate unchanged. Ongoing tensions around Iran and reduced transit through the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to volatility in international oil prices, while the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady in June is also expected to influence the BCCR’s policy stance.
• A 25 basis point cut is expected at the Central Bank’s final policy meeting of the year on November 26, which would take the policy rate to 3.0% by year-end. Despite the near-term rise in headline inflation, inflation expectations remain below 2.0% over both the 12-month and 24-month horizons, below the BCCR’s 3.0% target.
• The main upside risks to BMI’s inflation and policy-rate outlook would come from a prolonged period of high fuel prices, particularly if tensions in the Middle East persist under BMI’s “messy negotiations” framework.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Oil prices climbed about 2% on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, to a five-week high amid concerns that energy supply disruptions in the Middle East could worsen following renewed attacks between the US and Iran and a threatened naval blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthis.
• Brent futures rose US$2.12, or 2.4%, to US$91.34 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased US$1.80, or 2.2%, to US$85.03. Brent was on track for its highest close since June 10, while WTI was headed for its highest close since June 11.
• Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea following threats from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis. The development came as US forces bombed targets in southern and western Iran overnight, Tehran targeted US sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, and at least one tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The conflict has expanded beyond the Gulf, increasing the threat to global energy supplies and trade following the Houthis’ announcement of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday. Although Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu continued to operate normally, two tankers carrying Saudi crude to China and India made U-turns and headed towards the Suez Canal.
• The latest US attacks could represent a final attempt to strengthen Washington’s negotiating position before a compromise is reached and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. However, the risk remains of a more prolonged stalemate characterised by uncertain energy flows, elevated oil prices and recurring attacks.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain’s jobs market appears to have stabilised at weak levels, with official data showing annual wage growth and unemployment steady in the three months to May. Payrolled employment was little changed in June despite the recent political turmoil in Westminster.
• Average wage growth, excluding bonuses, held at 3.4% in the three months to May, matching the pace recorded in the three months to April and marking the joint-lowest rate since October 2020. The increase was in line with economists’ forecasts and is unlikely to add to pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates.
• Britain’s unemployment rate remained at 4.9% in the three months to May, slightly below forecasts for an increase to 5%. However, the unemployment rate among people aged 16–24 rose to 16.4%, its highest level since 2014, highlighting continued weakness among younger workers.
• The broader picture remains one of persistent employer hesitancy, as businesses continue to face cost pressures and uncertainty over the economic direction under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Payrolled employment fell by 4,000 in June, while job vacancies declined by 7,000 to 712,000 in the three months to June, well below the peak of around 1.3 million recorded in 2022.
• Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government announced measures to lower domestic power bills in an effort to ease the cost of living and is expected to unveil a 10-year plan for the country later this year. Smaller firms have been particularly cautious about hiring, partly due to higher social security contributions that have increased employment costs.
• The BoE is expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% next week, with private-sector wage growth, which has a more direct impact on prices, slowing to 2.9% in the three months to May, its weakest pace since 2020. However, the central bank is closely watching whether the rise in energy prices caused by the Iran war develops into longer-term inflation pressures, while investors continue to price in one or possibly two 25-basis-point rate increases by the end of 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• On July 15, 2026, the Supreme Court of Jamaica (Commercial Division) granted Scotia Group Jamaica Limited (SGJ) permission under Section 206 of the Companies Act to convene scheme meetings to consider its privatisation plan.
• Parent company Scotiabank Caribbean Holdings Limited (SCHL), which currently holds 71.78% of SGJ, plans to buy out the remaining 878,189,600 minority shares at $61.50 per share (totalling approximately $54Bn), ending over 57 years of SGJ trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE).
• The court-ordered scheme meetings are scheduled for October 7, 2026, at the AC Hotel by Marriott in Kingston, with SCHL meeting at 10:00 a.m. and the minority stockholders meeting at 11:00 a.m.
• Following the shareholder votes, the Chairman will report the results to the court, leading up to the final court hearing set for October 30, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. To alleviate concerns that delisting or shifting operations toward the Dominican Republic hub will reduce the presence in Jamaica, President and CEO Audrey Tugwell Henry reassured customers via email that the commitment to the island remains unchanged.
• SGJ is actively investing in Jamaica by upgrading 137 ABMs by year-end, enhancing digital banking features, renovating six branches (with Mandeville planned next), and planning to construct three new purpose-built branches over the next three years.
• SGJ’s stock price has appreciated by 7.6% year-to-date, closing at $57.21 on Monday, July 20, 2026. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.05x, which is lower than the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.09x

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Minister of State in the Ministry of Tourism, Hon. Tova Hamilton, welcomed the inaugural Liat Air flight from Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe, to Montego Bay, Jamaica, on July 14.
• The flight, which touched down at Sangster International Airport carrying 33 passengers, marks the start of a twice-weekly, year-round service operating on Tuesdays and Saturdays. There are plans to gradually grow to daily flights as demand increases.
• In her address, Ms. Hamilton said the new connection was about far more than moving people between two destinations, as it opens Jamaica to the French Caribbean and builds a stronger bridge into the wider European market, while also creating fresh opportunities.
• The connection aligns with what the Ministry describes as Tourism 3.0, a strategy focused not just on growing visitor numbers but on ensuring more Jamaicans benefit directly from tourism revenue.
• The launch of the nonstop service is expected to deliver benefits beyond transportation by creating new opportunities for industries linked to tourism. The route supports broader efforts to ensure that tourism growth generates economic benefits for businesses and workers across the country.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organisation (OLADE) on Friday said that Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) electricity generation grew 4.5% in April 2026, with renewables supplying more than 60% of the grid. It said that LAC continues to strengthen one of the cleanest electricity systems in the world and that in April 2026, the region generated 164 TWh (terawatt-hours; one TWh equals one billion kilowatt-hours) of electricity, 67% of which came from renewable energy sources.
• The report noted that the figure underscores the structural dominance of clean energy despite climate-related fluctuations that affected hydropower generation, with overall regional electricity generation increasing by 4.5% year-on-year. In OLADE’s latest electricity generation report, hydropower remained the region’s primary source of electricity, accounting for 44.6% of total generation, followed by natural gas at 23.2% and wind energy 12.2%.
• “Together, these three sources represented nearly 80% of all electricity generated across LAC during the month under review. Although hydropower output declined by 9.4 TWh compared with April 2025, the reduction was offset by increases in wind generation (+5.1 TWh), natural gas (+4.6 TWh), and bioenergy (+3.3 TWh),” OLADE said, adding “this highlights the region’s growing ability to adapt to changing climate conditions through a more diversified electricity mix”.
• The renewability index further confirms the region’s energy leadership, with nine of OLADE’s 27 member countries exceeding the regional average of 67.0%. According to OLADE, these indicators demonstrate that the sustained integration of renewable energy technologies, together with complementary sources such as natural gas, is strengthening electricity supply security while enhancing the region’s resilience to climate variability, one of the most significant challenges facing power systems across Latin America and the Caribbean.

(Sources: Trinidad Express)

• Fitch BMI projects that growth in Barbados will slow from an estimated 2.7% to 1.9% in 2026 as spillover effects from a longer-lasting US-Iran conflict spur inflationary pressures and weigh on economic activity.
• The external macroeconomic outlook briefly improved after the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on June 17, but a renewed flare-up of hostilities in recent days has pushed Analyst into a base case scenario of “Messy Negotiations”, implying further disruption to international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and posing considerable upside risks to BMI’s Oil & Gas team’s forecast for Dated Brent to average USD84/bbl in 2026.
• As a small and open island economy that relies heavily on imported fuel, Barbados is exposed to increased inflationary pressures linked to higher global oil prices. Against that background, the country’s average inflation is expected to reach 2.8% in 2026 (previously 2.3%), compared to 0.9% in 2025, adding to already substantial cost of living pressures and weighing on consumption. Meanwhile, risks to tourism activity are also rising due to weaker growth in key source markets (like the US and UK) and rising transportation costs.
• That said, government support measures and a healthy pipeline of investment projects will help cushion the impact of the oil price shock and prevent a sharper slowdown in domestic demand over the coming quarters. The FY2026/27 budget includes fuel excise cuts and electricity subsidies to contain energy price rises for households and businesses in the near term, while also lowering personal income taxes and introducing a cost-of-living cash credit worth BBD100 per month for lower-income pensioners and welfare recipients.
• Meanwhile, several large-scale tourism resort developments, with a total investment estimated at nearly USD1bn, should support robust construction activity in the tourism sector through to 2027 at least, while boosting longer-term hotel capacity and growth potential. Other major capital projects include a USD200m Pierhead waterfront revitalisation project in Bridgetown and a USD300m expansion of the Grantley Adams International Airport (GAIA).
• The renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict ensures risks lean firmly to the downside. For Barbados, the primary risk is that a more severe and prolonged oil price shock pushes inflation higher and suppresses growth further. The currency peg to the US dollar means that the country is particularly exposed to imported price pressures from the US, so BMI will be watching for signs of higher US inflation over the coming months.
• There are also near-term risks from the El Niño phenomenon, which is likely to put substantial stress on water supplies during H2 2026 and weigh on the agricultural sector. Barbados also remains vulnerable to the threat of severe weather events like hurricanes. On the other hand, the recent agreement on a 36-month, USD257mn Precautionary Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF will provide an important buffer against balance of payments pressures even in the face of a prolonged oil shock, bolstering stability.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• On Monday, July 20, 2026, President Donald Trump signed three proclamations set to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian automobile, alcohol and dairy products, alongside a wide array of other goods ranging from wine and hockey sticks to cement.
• The move marks a major escalation, as the tariffs would apply even to goods previously exempted under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The Trump administration framed the action as a response to Canada’s “continued discrimination” against US goods and its retaliatory trade measures.
• The tariffs are set to be levied under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 and would take effect in 30 days. While the law allows tariffs of up to 50%, its use is expected to face immediate legal challenges.
• Oil, potash, fish and critical minerals will be exempted, along with goods already facing national security tariffs, such as steel and many automobile parts. Canada is a major oil supplier to US refineries, while US farmers rely heavily on Canadian potash for fertiliser production.
• The White House also objected to Canadian rules limiting imports of US vehicles and quotas on US cheese that it described as more restrictive than those applied to similar imports from the European Union.
• Additional negotiations could occur before the tariffs take effect, although no face-to-face talks are immediately planned. US-Canada relations remain strained as the countries prepare to negotiate the renewal of the USMCA, while ongoing US talks with Mexico have reportedly been more positive.

(Source: Reuters)

• The latest data from the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service (MOFPS) suggest that Jamaica's fiscal position has come under renewed pressure in the first two months of the Fiscal Year ended March 31, 2027 (FY2026/27), as the lingering economic effects of Hurricane Melissa continue to weigh on government revenues. Central Government recorded a fiscal deficit of J$19.72Bn for the April–May period, significantly wider than the budgeted deficit of J$11.46Bn. The outturn highlights the fiscal challenges associated with rebuilding the economy while supporting recovery efforts.
• The weaker fiscal outturn was driven primarily by a shortfall in revenue collections, with total revenues and grants reaching J$172.11Bn, approximately J$20.37Bn (10.6%) below budget. Tax revenues (-11.8% below budget), particularly Pay As You Earn (PAYE; -12.5%) and other corporate taxes (-30.9%), underperformed expectations as many businesses, especially within the tourism and agricultural sectors - hardest hit by Hurricane Melissa - continue to recover from operational disruptions. That said, the decline was partially cushioned by stronger-than-expected non-tax revenues (+20.3%), likely reflecting disaster-related inflows and other government receipts.
• While revenues softened, government spending remained relatively restrained, totalling J$191.83Bn, or J$12.11Bn below budget. Lower expenditure on programmes (-7.4% below budget), capital projects (-15.1%), and interest payments (-15.7%) suggests that reconstruction spending is being rolled out in phases rather than all at once. This measured pace of expenditure likely reflects the authorities' effort to balance urgent recovery needs with preserving fiscal sustainability, even after temporarily suspending the Fiscal Responsibility Framework to facilitate disaster response.
• Despite the near-term deterioration, Jamaica's fiscal fundamentals remain considerably stronger than in previous post-disaster periods. Prior to Hurricane Melissa, the country had reduced public debt to near its legislated target (60% by FY2027/2028), maintained low inflation, and built substantial fiscal buffers through years of disciplined policymaking. These reforms - including disaster risk financing mechanisms and enhanced public financial management - have provided the government with greater flexibility to respond to one of the most destructive hurricanes in the island's history without materially undermining investor confidence.
• Looking ahead, the pace of reconstruction will likely determine the trajectory of Jamaica’s fiscal recovery. As tourism infrastructure, agricultural production, and public utilities continue to be restored, economic activity is anticipated to gradually strengthen, supporting improved tax collections over the medium term. Combined with catastrophe insurance payouts, multilateral financing, and targeted government investment, these developments are expected to ease fiscal pressures and reinforce Jamaica's long-standing reputation for prudent macroeconomic management.

(Sources: MOFPS & NCBCM Research)