• Canada's slower-than-expected rise in consumer prices in June has firmed up expectations that yet another rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) is coming next week, extending some more relief to homeowners and indebted businesses.
• The annual inflation rate cooled a tick more than expected to 2.7% in June and the BoC's closely tracked core inflation measures were also marginally down, data showed on Tuesday.
• The inflation reading is the last critical data point before the central bank's interest rate announcement and Tuesday's print prompted analysts and economists to factor in with almost complete certainty another 25-basis point rate cut on July 24.
• Month-over-month, the consumer price index was down 0.1%, compared with a forecast for no change. This was the first deceleration in the monthly inflation rate since December, Statistics Canada data showed.
• CPI has stayed below 3% since the start of the year and has been in the target range of the central bank, which aims to keep inflation at the mid-point of its range. The average of two of the BoC's preferred measures of core inflation - CPI-median and CPI-trim - eased slightly to 2.75% in June from 2.80% in May.
• Canada's main stock index (the S&P/TSX Composite) opened higher by 0.26% to 22,810.07 points, boosted by rate cut hopes. Meanwhile, yields on the government's two-year bonds were down 0.9 basis points to 3.792%.

(Source: Bloomberg News)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth this year in an early boost for the new Labour government.
• In an update to its global growth outlook, the IMF raised the UK to 0.7% from the 0.5% forecast in April, taking it from the second bottom ahead of Germany in 2023 to a pace equal to Italy and Japan. The US, Canada and France will see more rapid expansions.
• The 0.2 percentage point upgrade was the equal largest alongside France. The forecast was unchanged for 2025, when the UK will be the third-fastest growing G-7 economy at 1.5%, behind Canada and the US, according to the IMF
• Despite the better outlook, the forecasts imply the newly appointed  Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves still faces trouble in her first budget – expected in September or October. The Chancellor of the Exchequer is the UK government's chief financial minister responsible for raising revenue through taxation or borrowing and for controlling public spending.
• The Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, was forecasting growth this year of 0.8% and 1.9% in 2025 and most economists think its long-term outlook is overly ambitious.
• “Further challenges to disinflation in advanced economies could force central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to keep borrowing costs higher for even longer. That would put overall growth at risk,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s economic counsellor, wrote in a blog accompanying the forecasts.
• Last week, 3 of the 9 members of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee expressed similar concerns about services prices and wages. However, they were countered by another external member already voting for a rate cut, who said this week that the BOE’s policy was too tight.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica welcomed 55,000 visitors from July 4 to 10, indicating a recovery of the tourism industry post Hurricane Beryl. Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, made the disclosure at the opening ceremony of the Christmas in July trade show, on July 11.
• Minister Bartlett informed that for July 2 and 3, there were no arrivals to the island. He said the island started receiving visitors again on July 4 and arrival numbers increased over a six-day period.
• “That is what resilience is about where you can say… 80% of our resources is intact, so you can come, and they came because they have confidence in the promise that we make, because of the integrity of that promise,” he said.
• The Minister noted that the sustainability plan for the industry is predicated on several key strategies of training and development, upskilling, and broadening the scope of the production of authentic Jamaican goods and services. He also mentioned other strategies like expanded credit and debt arrangements, and marketing and networking entrepreneurs operating within the sector.
• Mr. Bartlett added that Jamaica’s long history of attracting record numbers of visitors to the island goes beyond its natural resources and noted that the artisanal community is a valuable part of the island’s tourism product.
• He emphasised that small and medium-sized enterprises in the tourism ecosystem are critical drivers of the future of the industry.

(Source: JIS)

• The Jamaica Special Economic Zone Authority (JSEZA) is looking to expand Jamaica’s footprint in global markets, targeting strategic opportunities in Colombia, Mexico and El Salvador.
• The Authority’s Chief Executive Officer, Kelli-Dawn Hamilton, who will participate in a business mission to these Latin American countries from July 17 to 26, said that the aim is to foster international partnerships and attract investments that will propel Jamaica’s economic growth.
• In an interview with JIS News, Mrs. Hamilton pointed out that JSEZA’s role in this mission is crucial, as they coordinate from the Government side to penetrate new markets and pursue strategic opportunities.
• The Authority will also work with Jamaica Promotions Corporation (JAMPRO) to provide timely and relevant information, facilitating the setup process for potential investors in Jamaica and maintaining collaborations to benefit existing SEZ companies.
• The mission aims to highlight Jamaica’s potential to become a logistics hub, especially given current global supply chain challenges, logistical considerations are paramount.
• In this, Mrs. Hamilton explained: “We would have chosen these markets because of the potential opportunities, based on our own needs as a country, and our own vision of becoming a logistics-centred economy.”
• To capitalise on the benefits, “We have to go out there and sell that opportunity and show that Jamaica has the potential to be an even larger nearshore destination for a number of companies, especially amidst issues related to the Panama and Suez Canals,” she said.

(Source: JIS)

• President of Guyana, Dr Irfaan Ali has announced that, driven by its Low-Carbon Development Strategy (LCDs) 2030, Guyana will spearhead a worldwide coalition aimed at securing funding to bolster the preservation of the Amazon Basin’s biodiversity.
• Dr Ali made the revelation at the opening ceremony of the Caribbean Investment Forum being held at the Arthur Chung Conference Centre, at Liliendaal, Georgetown. Dr. Ali conducted comprehensive discussions, emphasising the necessity of a collaborative approach to preserve the region’s flora and fauna.
• In 2009, Guyana became the first developing nation to introduce the LCDs. The strategy delineated a vision for the promotion of fair and sustainable development, while simultaneously safeguarding the nation’s forests, which constitute approximately 85% of its total land area.
• In the same year, Norway and Guyana agreed to collaborate to develop a model of advancement payment for forests. Guyna’s president at the time, Bharrat Jagdeo, along with Norway’s Minister of Environment and International Development, entered into an agreement which involved Norway compensating Guyana financially for its forest-climate services.
• Through this approach, Guyana successfully executed transactions worth nearly US$1Bn for the climate services rendered by its forests. Out of this amount, US$227Mn originated from the bilateral agreement with the Norwegian Government, while an additional US$750Mn resulted from the sale of ART-TREES (The REDD+ Environmental Excellence Standard) credits in 2023.
• The Architecture for REDD+ Transactions (ART) issued 7.14 million 2021 vintage carbon credits to Guyana. ART issued TREES credits to Guyana for reducing emissions from forest loss and maintaining intact tropical forests through jurisdictional REDD+. The acronym REDD+ means "reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), as well as restore forests and protect intact forests (+)".
• Utilizing its LCDS, Guyana has established a framework to achieve a harmonious integration of economic development and the preservation of its forests and biodiversity, while also receiving compensation for these efforts.
• “Guyana intends to take the leadership role of mobilising friends and countries with a rich biodiversity into a global coalition alliance on biodiversity, and to commence the work on creating a scalable model that would address forest and biodiversity together,” the President said.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle & NCBCM Research)

• Antigua and Barbuda’s Tourism Minister Charles Fernandez sees the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) into the regional hospitality sector as having both beneficial and detrimental effects for everyone concerned.
• Speaking at the University of the West Indies’ Five Islands Campus Caribbean AI Conference, Fernandez pointed out that AI could facilitate Antigua and Barbuda and hotels in delivering seamless service to visitors.
• “On cruise ship days, for example, at the height of the season, you have a lot of traffic. So, you have all kinds of bottlenecks. And the last thing you want is for your population to start to say, look, this is too much of a headache. This is a nuisance. And so, we lose that whole aspect of warmth and hospitality that we are known for. So you could use AI, for example, with the police to generate which are the best routes to reduce the time, for example, from the airport to the hotel,” he said at the panel titled: “Unleashing the Tourism Potential: Revolutionising Experiences through Generative AI and Technology 5.0 Innovations”.
• On the other hand, Fernandez acknowledges that while improving service with AI will enhance efficiency, it may also lead to job losses for some individuals.
• “Governments will have to be concerned. But I think there are two ways that we have to, at least at this point in time, look to manage it. The first one I will say is there have to be discussions with the unions,” he said.
• “You have to bring them on board because quite often people tend to create fear out of, pardon the word, ignorance. And so, what you got to do is bring them in and let them know that actually, yes there's a concern for job loss, that's one, but the other aspect of it is that you're opening an avenue for us to really build our capacity, because if we don’t, we're going to be left behind. Everybody else is doing it.”
• Secondly, to save jobs, Fernandez said countries will have to offer incentives for hotel owners to keep a certain amount of locals employed at their properties. He added it was important for governments across the region to get their citizens prepared for a future where AI is a part of everyday life.

 (Source: Caribbean Loop News)

• Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, said on Monday the three inflation readings over the second quarter of this year showed "more progress" was being made on bringing the pace of price increases back to the Fed's target.
• "In the second quarter, actually, we did make some more progress," Powell said at an event at the Economic Club of Washington. "We've had three better readings, and if you average them, that's a pretty good place." Inflation is edging closer to the Fed's 2% target, and policymakers are increasingly concerned about slowing the economy too much and causing a rise in the unemployment rate.
• Given what policymakers believe to be an increasingly balanced set of risks, they may well use their final comments ahead of this month's meeting to either flag that rate cuts are imminent or explain why recent data still doesn't warrant a turn to easier monetary policy.
• The betting among investors has tilted strongly towards the Fed starting rate cuts in September.  As of July 16, the CME Fed Watch Tool indicates a 91.4% probability of the Fed doing a 25 basis point cut in September up from the 70.2 % recorded the week prior (July 9). Changes to the policy statement in July could provide a strong signal that updating how inflation is described and assessing how recent data added to policymakers' confidence that the pandemic-era outbreak of inflation has subsided.

(Source: Reuters)

• China’s National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, on Monday issued an announcement that the country’s second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year-on-year (YoY), failing to meet expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll. June retail sales also didn’t meet estimates, rising 2% compared with the 3.3% growth that was predicted.
• However, industrial production YoY growth in June, thrashed expectations at 5.3%, compared with Reuters’ estimate of 5.0%. high-tech manufacturing allocated an 8.8% increase in value added in June.
• Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowed on a year-to-date basis in June versus May, while real estate investment declined at the same 10.1% rate.
• The urban unemployment rate in June was unchanged from the prior month at 5.0%, the bureau said. The non-employment rate for people ages 16 to 24 who are not in school typically comes out a few days after the overall figure. The latest data available showed the youth unemployment rate remained lofty, at 14.2% in May.
• In nominal terms, GDP grew by 3.97% in the first quarter, and 4.01% in the first half of the year, according to data accessed via Wind Information. Business loans increased by n yuan in the first half of the year, slightly less than the 12.81Tn yuan recorded for the same period last year.

(Source: CNBC)

• The House of Representatives, on Tuesday (July 9), passed the Income Tax (Amendment) Act, 2024, which seeks to implement a regime to provide income tax credit to individuals who acquire and install a solar photovoltaic system at their primary place of residence.
• Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke, had informed of the initiative during his 2023/24 Budget presentation. “This Bill seeks to achieve this by setting out the appropriate legal framework that would allow individuals to benefit from this income tax credit,” he added.
• "This measure forms part of a much broader goal of reducing our dependence on fossil fuels and substantially increasing the share of renewable energy in our local energy mix,” Dr. Clarke told the House. The Minister highlighted that Jamaica aims to attain a 50 percent renewable energy share in electricity generation by 2030, emphasising the crucial role of targeted fiscal policies in reaching this goal.
• The Minister said that the major components utilised in the installation of a solar photovoltaic system, such as the solar photovoltaic panels, solar inverters, and solar batteries, including lithium-ion batteries, are also exempt from the payment of General Consumption Tax (GCT). He further highlighted that the fiscal measures are proof of the Government’s commitment to achieve the target of 50% use of renewables by 2030.”
• Additionally, the Bill provides for an income tax credit, among other benefits, at a rate of 30% of the acquisition and installation costs of a solar photovoltaic system for the taxpayer's primary residence, with a cap of $4Mn. According to Clarke, this means that the maximum credit an individual will be allowed to claim is $1.2Mn.

 (Source: JIS)

• Wigton Windfarm Limited (WIG), operating as Wigton Energy, has announced that it was shortlisted in the Generation Procurement Entity’s (GPE) tender for the supply of up to 100 megawatts (MW) of electricity generation from renewables.
• The GPE is the state-led entity that approves companies installing additional grid power.
• This means that WIG’s bid for the supply of 49.83MW was one (1) of two (2) bids, which was successful in the economic evaluation phase of the tender process. It will now proceed to the technical evaluation phase prior to the final award being made to the successful bidders by the GPE.
• This reflects WIG’s strategy to expand its offerings from wind generation to also include solar energy to grow the company further.
• Additionally, if the company succeeds, it will be instrumental in achieving the country’s renewable energy target of 20% by 2030. As of May 2023, about 11% of the country's energy production came from renewable sources.

 (Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)