• The European Commission demanded on Sunday, February 22, 2026, that the United States (U.S.) stick to the terms of an EU-U.S. trade deal reached last year, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's global tariffs and he responded with new levies across the board.
• The Commission, which negotiates trade policy on behalf of the 27 EU member states, said Washington must provide "full clarity" on the steps it intends to take following the court ruling. After the court struck down Trump's global tariffs on Friday, February 20, 2026, the U.S. president announced temporary, across-the-board tariffs of 10%, which he then hiked to 15% a day later.
• "The current situation is not conducive to delivering 'fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides" in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year's trade agreement, the Commission said. "A deal is a deal." The comments were far more strongly worded than the Commission's initial response on Friday, which had said only that it was studying the outcome of the Supreme Court decision and keeping in contact with the U.S. administration.
• Last year's trade deal set a 15% U.S. tariff rate for most EU goods, apart from those covered by other sectoral tariffs, such as on steel. It also allowed zero tariffs on some products such as aircraft and spare parts. The EU agreed to remove import duties on many U.S. goods and withdrew a threat to retaliate with higher levies. It is not clear whether Trump's new 15% tariffs supersede the EU-U.S. deal. If they do, the EU's zero tariff exemptions could disappear. The new tariffs could also be placed on top of pre-existing 'most-favoured-nation' U.S. duties, which is not the case under the EU-U.S. deal.
• Furthermore, the comparative advantage the EU had with a 15% tariff would appear to have disappeared as even countries without a deal face that rate. Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimates that the EU as a whole will be 0.8 percentage points worse off, with Italy facing an extra 1.7 percentage points of U.S. tariffs. The EU executive added that unpredictable tariffs were disruptive and undermined confidence across global markets.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 as the government shutdown impacted spending and investment, while a key inflation metric showed high prices are still a factor for the economy.
• Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annualised rate of just 1.4%, according to the Commerce Department, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 2.5% gain. Consumer spending increased at a slower pace for the period while government spending tumbled sharply in a quarter marked by the record-length shutdown. The department estimated that the shutdown subtracted about 1 percentage point from growth, though it added that the exact impacts “cannot be quantified.”
• For the full year in 2025, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% pace, down from the 2.8% increase in 2024. “The Federal government shutdown clearly sent the economy careening off its strong growth path in the fourth quarter which is a one-off that won’t be repeated in early 2026,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds. Just before the data release, President Donald Trump warned that the GDP number would be soft, blaming it on the government shutdown that ended in November 2025.
• While growth slowed, inflation held firm in December 2025, according to the gauge most closely watched by Fed officials. The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE index), which excludes food and energy, rose 3% in December 2025, up 0.2 percentage point from November 2025, according to a separate release. That matched the consensus forecast but kept the pivotal inflation measure well above the Fed’s 2% target. On a headline basis, the PCE index accelerated 2.9%, or 0.1 percentage points higher than expected.
• On a monthly basis, goods prices climbed 0.4% while services increased 0.3%, indicating that price pressures remained relatively broad-based rather than concentrated in any single category. Fed policymakers have been watching that balance closely to see whether inflation is being spurred by temporary tariff-related pressures that would hit goods, or more fundamental demand-driven factors that would show up in services.
• While Trump blamed the shutdown, the Commerce Department said the deceleration in GDP, which grew at a 4.4% rate in the third quarter, was the result in a pullback in consumer spending and exports, as well as the impact from the government closure that ran from Oct. 1, 2025 to Nov. 12, 2025. Personal consumption expenditures, a proxy for consumer outlays, rose 2.4% in the quarter, down from the 3.5% gain in the prior period. Exports fell 0.9% after surging 9.6% in Q3.

(Source: CNBC)

• Woodcats International Limited (Woodcats) kicked off Jamaica’s 2026 primary market activity on a solid note, announcing that its offer of 833,333,333 ordinary shares was oversubscribed at the close of the invitation on February 11, 2026.
• The Initial Public Offering (IPO), which opened under a prospectus dated January 26, 2026, represents the first public offer of the year and signals healthy retail investor appetite for new issues. Demand was particularly strong in the General Public pool, which was oversubscribed, while the Employee Reserve, Key Partner Reserve, and Strategic Investor Reserve pools were each allotted 100% of subscriptions received.
• Under the basis of allotment, General Public applicants will receive full allocation on the first 25,000 shares applied for and approximately 67.66% of the balance requested, with refunds to be processed for partially filled applications in keeping with the prospectus terms. Multiple applications from the same Jamaica Central Securities Depository Limited (JCSD) account were consolidated for allocation purposes, reinforcing fairness in distribution.
• Woodcats will now move to list its shares on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) Junior Market, marking the first Junior Market listing to utilise the increased J$750Mn capitalisation limit. Lead broker NCB Capital Markets Limited credited strong investor confidence for the successful outcome, positioning the IPO as a positive start to Jamaica’s 2026 capital markets activity.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica is setting its sights on 2026 as the pivotal year to revive its tourism sector, aiming for a substantial rebound after Hurricane Melissa’s devastation in late 2025. With an ambitious target of attracting 500,000 British visitors annually by 2030, the island is focusing on key strategies, including expanding airlift, promoting community-driven tourism experiences, and continuing post-hurricane recovery efforts. By the end of 2026, the island is expected to see tourism returns reaching 80% of pre-hurricane levels, reflecting its resilience and forward-thinking approach.
• The tourism industry has faced a challenging year, with approximately 30% of Jamaica’s tourism infrastructure impacted by the hurricane. However, recovery has been swift, with 70% of the island’s room inventory restored by early 2026, and the remaining properties set to be back online by the end of the year. During this rebuild phase, several resorts are seizing the opportunity to enhance their offerings, ensuring that when they reopen, they will provide upgraded, high-quality experiences for visitors.
• A cornerstone of Jamaica’s recovery plan is the United Kingdom (U.K.) market. Visitor numbers dropped by 6% early in 2025 due to a reduction in flight capacity by TUI Airways, which also ended its homeporting of the Marella cruise line in Montego Bay. Despite this setback, the island is focused on strengthening its ties with U.K. travellers. As part of this strategy, major U.K. airlines are expanding their services to Jamaica for the summer of 2026. TUI will add an extra weekly flight from both London Gatwick and Manchester to Montego Bay, British Airways will increase its London-Gatwick to Kingston service, and Virgin Atlantic will make its London Heathrow to Montego Bay route a daily operation.
• Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett has emphasised the critical role of this expanded airlift in achieving Jamaica’s long-term tourism goals. This initiative reflects Jamaica’s ongoing commitment to strengthening its cultural and historical ties with the UK, as well as capitalising on the deep-rooted diaspora connections.
• In line with shifting travel preferences, Jamaica is adapting its tourism product to meet evolving demands. While traditional resort holidays remain popular, British visitors are increasingly seeking more authentic, immersive travel experiences. According to research from British Airways and the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA), British tourists are gravitating toward story-driven journeys and cultural engagement. Jamaica is responding by offering farm-to-table dining experiences, community volunteering programs, and culturally immersive itineraries that highlight the island’s rich heritage and local traditions.
• Minister Bartlett also outlined plans for further development to enhance the island’s tourism appeal. Among these initiatives is the redesign of the Falmouth cruise port, which is set to become a more vibrant, engaging destination for cruise passengers. Additionally, five major resort developments are in the pipeline, positioning Jamaica to meet the demands of a new generation of travellers while revitalising its tourism infrastructure.

(Source: Travel and Tour World)

• Trinidad and Tobago has been officially removed from the European Union’s list of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes, following a decision by the EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council on Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
• Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar welcomed the development on February 18, 2026, declaring that the country is no longer blacklisted. “Our country has officially been removed from the European Union’s list of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes – a designation applied to countries that fail to meet international standards for tax transparency. This is a major step forward,” she said. Blacklisting constrained investment, limited opportunity, and weakened confidence in the country’s financial system.
• The removal from the list signals clearly to the world that Trinidad and Tobago has met its commitments and reclaimed its standing on the global stage. “Investor interest is rising. Confidence is returning. Momentum is building. T&T is open for business, compliant, and ready for sustainable growth.” The EU tax listing process forms part of global efforts to combat tax evasion and avoidance risks, strengthen transparency, and promote fair taxation.
• EU Ambassador Cécile Tassin also welcomed the development, stating: “The progress made by T&T on the path towards meeting the internationally agreed standards on tax good governance is impressive. These efforts should be commended. They are a positive sign for the continued strengthening of our partnership.” Minister of Finance Davendranath Tancoo also addressed the decision yesterday, describing it as the result of sustained engagement with European authorities.
• A key element of the reform programme was the replacement of the former Free Trade Zone regime, which had been deemed harmful, with a Special Economic Zone framework aligned with international standards.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (EMGL) is expected to submit the Field Development Plan (FDP) for its eighth project in the Stabroek Block, the gas-rich longtail development in the coming weeks, with hopes of securing regulatory approval by the end of 2026. EMGL’s president, Alistair Routledge, made the disclosure at the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo 2026 at the Guyana Marriott Hotel in Georgetown.
• Routledge said, “We’re due to submit a field development plan to the Ministry of Natural Resources in the coming weeks,” adding that the company is nearing completion of the environmental and socio-economic studies required for the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and environmental permitting process, with the aspiration that by the end of this year, the longtail project should be sanctioned.
• Exxon, operator of the Stabroek Block, is currently producing over 900,000 barrels of oil daily from four developments: Liza Phase One, Liza Phase Two, Payara and Yellowtail. While Uaru, Whiptail, and Hammerhead have received government approval, they are not yet producing. Unlike previous developments focused primarily on oil, Longtail will focus on gas production.
• The project will initially operate as a gas cycling development with 1.2 billion cubic feet per day of gas compression capacity. This is equivalent to the total gas compression capacity of the first four projects, and in the early days, it will have a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day of condensate, which BlackRock Midstream describes as extremely light oil, and will be gas export-ready from day one.
• Longtail will involve drilling approximately 24 – 60 production and injection wells, installation, commissioning, and operations of Subsea Umbilicals, Risers, and Flowlines (SURF), and a FPSO configured with gas injection rather than water injection, with subsea equipment installed at a depth of approximately 1,600 – 2,000 metres, located about 200 km from Georgetown in the southeastern portion of the Stabroek Block, with discussions ongoing regarding whether the gas will support offshore projects, the Wales Gas-to-Energy initiative, or the planned second GTE project in Berbice.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• Canada’s trade deficit narrowed in December, with Statistics Canada reporting a C$1.31Bn shortfall, improving from the revised C$2.59Bn deficit in November and undershooting the C$2.0Bn consensus forecast, as stronger export performance supported the external balance.
• Export growth was the primary driver of the improvement, with total exports rising 2.6% to C$65.63Bn, largely reflecting increased shipments of unwrought gold.
• Canada’s export dependence on the United States continued to decline structurally, with U.S.-bound exports accounting for 67.4% of total shipments, down from 76.2% a year earlier and marking the lowest share on record outside the pandemic period, despite a modest 1.1% increase in exports to the U.S. during the month.
• Diversification toward non-U.S. markets remained the dominant narrative, as exports to other countries reached a new record in December and surged 17.0% over 2025, led by gold exports to the United Kingdom alongside growth in select manufacturing segments.
• Bilateral trade dynamics with the United States softened modestly, as imports from the U.S. increased 3.5%, compressing Canada’s merchandise trade surplus with its largest partner to C$5.7Bn from C$6.5Bn in November.
• Trade balances with non-U.S. partners also improved, as imports from countries outside the United States declined 3%, narrowing the deficit with these markets to C$7Bn from C$9Bn, reinforcing the broader rebalancing in trade flows.
• This news release is in line with Canadian PM Mark Carney setting a goal for Canada to double its non-US exports in the next decade. This goal was set given that American tariffs are causing a chill in investment.

(Source: Reuters and AP News)

• Markets are pricing in a further Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike to 1%, potentially as early as March or April, following the central bank’s exit from ultra-loose policy and cumulative tightening that lifted the policy rate to 0.75% in December, a 30-year high.
• A move to 1% could trigger significant household portfolio reallocation, as higher deposit rates incentivise Japanese savers to shift idle cash into interest-bearing bank accounts after decades of near-zero returns.
• Historical behaviour suggests the 0.5% threshold is a key trigger point, with past episodes showing that once policy rates exceed this level, household funds tend to flow rapidly into bank deposits, raising system liquidity held with the BOJ.
• Rising deposit inflows could complicate monetary-policy implementation, as increased reserves at the BOJ may exert downward pressure on money-market rates and hinder the central bank’s ability to guide short-term rates toward its policy target.
• The BOJ’s balance-sheet normalisation adds an additional layer of uncertainty, with the central bank shrinking a balance sheet that expanded roughly fivefold over two decades to about ¥756Tn (US$4.9Tn) following the large-scale stimulus launched in 2013.
• Reserve balances remain elevated at roughly ¥454Tn, though economists estimate the BOJ could reduce reserves to around ¥280Tn without triggering excessive volatility in short-term rates, contingent on future credit growth and bank lending dynamics.
• The transition away from prolonged monetary accommodation creates forecasting challenges, as the scale and speed of potential fund reallocation remain uncertain given Japan’s extended period of aggressive liquidity injections and entrenched low-rate behaviour among households and financial institutions.

(Source: Reuters)

• Hurricane Melissa exacted a toll on the quarterly earnings of TransJamaican Highway (TJH) and Fontana Limited (Fontana), highlighting that the impact of the superstorm’s October 2025 landfall extended across sectors.
• For the December 2025 quarter (Q4 2025), TJH’s net profit slipped 7.7% to US$8.6Mn, primarily driven by lower revenues and higher operating expenses. Revenue declined 2.5% to US$23.74Mn, reflecting the 15-day toll suspension following Hurricane Melissa, which resulted in an estimated revenue loss of approximately US$3.5Mn.
• Its quarterly performance was further dampened by higher operating expenses, which rose 31.4% to US$5.8Mn due to higher amortisation, maintenance activity and consultancy costs. A 43.3% rise in administrative expenses due to hurricane-related relief and recovery initiatives and spending on a Road and Operational Maintenance software system also helped to push up costs.
• For Fontana, Melissa’s impact on its quarterly profits was more pronounced, with earnings falling by 38.7% to $201Mn, despite marginal revenue growth. Hurricane disruptions caused a 16-day closure of its Fairview Montego Bay store, its second-largest location by sales. Its corporate offices also sustained damage, and the Savanna-la-Mar branch faced similar Melissa-induced disruptions.
• In light of the disruption to its operations, Fontana faced lower sales volumes in its Western Stores, operating inefficiencies from shortened hours, and logistics challenges in rebalancing inventory. As a result, revenues only rose by just 5.6% to $2.9Bn, while direct costs outpaced revenues by 7.4% to $1.77Bn. This meant gross profits increased by only 2.8%, and margins narrowed to 38.2% from 39.2%. With melissa sapping revenue growth, operating expenses and finance costs tipped the scales even further. Expenses grew by 22.2% to $840.85Mn, and there was 72.4% increase in finance costs to $73.83Mn.
• Though Melissa put a dent in both companies’ quarterly earnings, TJH's full-year earnings grew by 17% to US$36.6Mn, amid sustained traffic growth and higher t-Tag penetration across the network in the first half of the year.
• Meanwhile, Fontana’s YTD earnings are down 36.5% despite 12.1% revenue growth. Higher operating expenses of $1.66Mn (+22.3%) reflect fixed-cost absorption during store closures, integration costs tied to Monarch locations it acquired, and setup costs for three new Ora concept stores. Finance costs also surged 72.4% due to borrowings to support the Monarch Acquisitions. However, while these weighed on near-term profitability, management emphasised that a portion of the expenses represents strategic growth investments.
• Since the start of the year, TJH’s stock price has increased by 44.5%, while Fontana’s stock price has decreased by 4.8%, to close at $6.66 and $7.42, respectively, on February 17, 2026. At this price, TJH trades at a P/E of 14.4x, below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 21.7x, while Fontana trades at a P/E of 20.6x, above the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 18.5x.

(Sources: Fontana and TJH Financial Release, NCBCM Research)

• December 2025 quarter earnings releases for securities dealers, VM Investments Limited (VMIL) and Barita Investments Limited (BIL) told divergent stories. VMIL’s earnings rebounded, while Barita saw its earnings slip over the same period.
• For VMIL, quarterly earnings increased to $155.8Mn compared to a $91.5Mn loss in the prior-year period as a 44.4% revenue decline was countered by a 64.7% reduction in total expenses. Its lower revenues reflected a downturn in global financial markets that weighed on trading activity and heightened capital market volatility that adversely impacted deal flow. Investor confidence was further tempered by ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty across major developed economies. Meanwhile, its improved cost base was largely attributable to favourable adjustments to credit loss provisions, reflecting strengthened collateral positions across VMIL’s loan portfolio, along with lower management fees.
• However, VMIL’s quarterly improvement was not enough to raise annual earnings, which tumbled by 68.7% to J$173.87Mn. Macroeconomic headwinds, subdued capital markets activity and the absence of a one $422Mn one-off gain from the sale of Carilend¹, which significantly elevated the prior year’s earnings, were the culprits. Looking ahead, VMIL’s management has indicated that it will focus on revenue growth through innovative asset management products, deeper client engagement, and enhanced operational efficiency via greater technology adoption.
• Meanwhile, BIL reported a 62% decline in net profits to J$211Mn for its first quarter ended December 31, 2025, reflecting both weaker revenues (-17.9%) and higher operating expenses (OPEX: +21.5%).
• The decline in revenues was primarily due to lower equity valuations amid softer market conditions. On a positive note, net interest income increased 31%, supported by balance sheet growth. However, non-interest income declined 24%, driven by a reversal of investment gains. In the same breath, OPEX was spurred by lower credit loss reversals relative to the prior year and higher administrative costs. These expenses, however, were partially offset by a 6% reduction in staff expenses.
• Consequently, operating profits fell to J$254.35Mn, from J$675.39Mn, while operating margin declined to 21.6% from 47.0% in the previous corresponding quarter, leading to lower quarterly earnings.
• Despite the quarterly slowdown, BIL has made moves that could raise future earnings. During the quarter, it acquired 100% of JN Fund Managers Limited (JNFM). This is set to strengthen the company’s asset management platform and position it to expand its recurring fee-based revenues across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean. However, value accretion from the acquisition will require disciplined execution to realise revenue and cost synergies.
• Barita also continues to transition its alternative investment portfolio toward development-driven, cash-generating real estate projects. With two major sites advancing through pre-development, the Group is shifting from mark-to-market valuation gains toward more predictable, project-based returns, aligning with its long-term capital deployment strategy.
• Since the start of the year, VMIL and BARITA’s stock prices have decreased by 15.42% and 4.19% to close at $1.81 and $69.01 on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. At this price, VMIL trades at a P/B of 0.88x, below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.11x, while BIL's P/B of 2.36x sits above this sector average.

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¹In 2019, VMIL made a private equity investment in fintech company Carilend.

(Sources: VMIL and BARITA Financial Release)