• Fitch Solutions expects the Jamaican economy to grow by 1.2% in 2025, buoyed by increased domestic demand and continued economic recovery from Hurricane Beryl.
• Additionally, Fitch sees favourable domestic economic conditions and expected policy rate cuts by the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) in H2 2025 as auguring well for growth in economic activity. The outlook is also supported by a record-low unemployment rate of 3.5% in Q4 2024, well-anchored inflation rates within the BOJ’s target range, and an expected 6.7% minimum wage increase and rise in the income tax threshold from J$1.7Mn to J$1.8Mn in April 2025.
• Although domestic demand will help growth recover in 2025, Jamaica remains vulnerable to external shocks and challenging global economic conditions. These external factors include flagging U.S. demand, an unpredictable geopolitical and trade policy environment, and a potentially damaging hurricane season.
• A stagnating growth outlook for the United States is a stiff headwind to Jamaica’s economy. Fitch revised its forecast for Real GDP growth in the United States in 2025 down from 2.1% to 1.9% with risks tilted overwhelmingly to the downside. The impact of a slowing US economy is sizeable for Jamaica’s entire economy, with the United States accounting for 47.2% of Jamaica’s total exports in 2023 and 40.9% of total importsFurthermore, with the U.S. now imposing a 10% tariff on Jamaica (and other countries) for all imported goods, this is likely to put a damper on the island's exports to the US and, by extension GDP growth.
• Additionally, slowing economic activity in the United States will weigh on capital spending in Jamaica, as evidenced by sharp declines in foreign direct investment inflows in 2024. Demand for foreign travel by U.S. residents has also declined, with a 2.8 percentage point decrease in the percentage of Americans surveyed in February 2025 who said they planned to visit a foreign country in the next six months, a headwind for the tourism-dependent Jamaica.
• Fitch’s growth forecast also accounts for anticipated weather-related shocks curtailing economic growth and dynamism. An initial forecast for the 2025 storm season anticipates between 13 and 18 storms, including 7-10 hurricanes, comparable to 2024’s busy storm season, which saw 11 hurricanes and 18 storms. As seen in 2024, strong storms and hurricanes can dramatically impact Jamaica’s growth prospects through supply-side shocks, with resulting spikes in inflation deteriorating the real income of the Jamaican consumer and reducing the stock of productive capital and infrastructure.

(Sources: Fitch Connect & NCBCM Research)

• The Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ) is investing billions of dollars in the expansion of shipping, logistics, and supply chain capacity in St. James. Senior Vice President of Finance, Information Services, Corporate Planning and Materials Management, Elva Williams-Richards, said that three major projects are being undertaken in the parish. These include the expansion of berth facilities at the Montego Bay Port at a cost of J$1Bn.
• The works, which are already underway, aim to improve efficiency for cruise and cargo operations. In addition, the Authority will be redesigning and scraping a section of Tony Hart Boulevard, the first phase of which will cost more than half a billion dollars.
• “These investments enhance the region’s capacity for trade, shipping and logistics, making western Jamaica a more attractive hub for international commerce and supports Jamaica’s goal of becoming a key player in the global supply chain,” she said.
• Importantly, on March 14, 2025, Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) reaffirmed the assigned Issuer/Corporate credit ratings of CariA- (Foreign Currency Rating) and CariA (Local Currency Rating) on the regional rating scale, and jmAA+ on the Jamaica national scale assigned to PAJ. The ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of PAJ relative to other obligors in the Caribbean is good, and when compared to other obligors in Jamaica, is high.
• CariCRIS also assigned a stable outlook on PAJ, reflecting the high likelihood that PAJ will continue to have profitable operations over the next 12-15 months.
• This affirmation and stable outlook could enhance the PAJ’s access to funding, which could be used within the business for further expansions. This, coupled with the expectation of improved revenue-generating capabilities based on the number of ongoing upgrade projects, supported by growth conditions in the Jamaican economy, global trade volumes and the global cruise industry, would act as a positive growth driver to the domestic maritime sector and the wider economy.

(Sources: JIS & CariCRIS)

• Guyana and Brazil will continue to play a dominant role in Latin America’s oil production growth by 2030, according to Norway-based energy research and business intelligence firm, Rystad Energy. 
• The region is set to add over four million barrels per day (mbd) of new crude oil and condensate capacity, accounting for 39% of global non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) additions.
• Guyana ranks as the 5th largest crude oil exporter in Latin America. Brazil has historically led production, but Guyana has emerged as a key contributor since production began at the Stabroek Block. By 2030, more than 85% of Latin America’s new offshore deepwater output will come from Guyana and Brazil, Rystad Energy said in an April 1 report.
• Major offshore oil developments across Latin America are poised to drive significant production growth in the coming years. Key projects include Brazil’s Búzios and Bacalhau fields, as well as ExxonMobil-led developments in Guyana such as Uaru, Whiptail, and Yellowtail. Notably, the Yellowtail project is expected to begin producing oil as early as the third quarter. Suriname’s GranMourgu project is slated to come online by 2028, adding a new frontier to the region’s energy landscape. Meanwhile, Mexico is gearing up to boost output through the Zama, Trion, and Polok-Chinwol fields. These developments underscore the region’s emerging role in global energy supply amid broader shifts in exploration and production strategies.
• According to Rystad Energy, global non-OPEC production capacity is expected to rise by 10.5 mbd between 2025 and 2030 but declines in mature fields will offset some gains. Latin America will see the highest growth at 1.9 mbd, outpacing North America, the Middle East, and Africa.
• Strong project approvals and a solid development pipeline will keep Latin America at the forefront of global supply expansion through the decade.

(Source: Oil Now)

• First Quantum Minerals' shares rose by as much as 3.0% on the Toronto Stock Exchange early on Tuesday after the company said it had discontinued arbitration proceedings against the Panama government.
• The decision, announced on Monday, raises the prospect of negotiations to resume production at the Cobre Panama copper mine, which had contributed 1% of global copper production until the government of Panama shut it down following public protests in 2023.
• The suspension of output impacted both Panama's and the company's financial prospects. The next steps in the dispute depend on the actions of Panama's president. In addition to First Quantum, at least five other companies have filed arbitration cases against Panama over the closure of the Cobre Panama mine.
• First Quantum’s suspension of arbitration offers the Panamanian government a chance to renegotiate and potentially restart operations at the Cobre Panama mine—an economically critical project.
• The resumption of mining operations now appears increasingly likely, especially following President Mulino’s confirmation that formal negotiations would begin once arbitration proceedings were withdrawn. Nevertheless, significant resistance is expected from environmental groups and indigenous communities residing in the remote region where the mine is located, potentially complicating the path forward.
• Lilian González Guevara, executive director of the non-governmental Environmental Incident Center, pushed back against the economic argument for reopening the mine. She said that while many countries had struggled economically recently, Panama had grown even without the mine operating last year. “We haven’t depended on mining, it’s a fallacy,” she said. The only dialogue the group was open to having was about permanently closing the mine.

(Sources: Reuters and NCBCM Research)

• President Donald Trump's new tariffs announced on Wednesday sent shockwaves through global markets amid worries the aggressive duties will slow growth, hit corporate earnings and stoke inflation.
• Global markets have been whiplashed since Trump took office and kept up a stream of rhetoric that threatened to unleash a global trade war. Trump's new levies crystallised those fears.
• He set a baseline of 10% across all imports and higher duties on some of the U.S.’s biggest trading partners. Taken together, the duties will erect new barriers around the world's largest consumer economy, reversing decades of trade liberalization that have shaped the global order following World War Two.
• In interviews, several investors and analysts said the rhetoric around tariffs had already caused an economic slowdown, hitting both consumer and corporate confidence. The big unknown now is how trading partners will react, they said.
• While Wednesday’s announcement provided a baseline, it is likely to be followed by months of negotiations and debilitating uncertainty. Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, spoke bluntly of the impact. "This is the worst-case scenario that the market was expecting, and that's enough to potentially send the U.S. into a recession" he said.
• Analysts expect trading partners to respond with countermeasures that could lead to dramatically higher prices for everything from bicycles to wine and how the market ultimately digests what is being done right now. Notably, China urged the United States to immediately cancel its latest tariffs and vowed countermeasures to safeguard its own interests
• "The tariffs are so comprehensive and so much larger than we expected. People were talking earlier about whether clarity would boost the market. But now you have clarity, and no one likes what they see," said Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain's business secretary vowed to "remain calm" and insisted he still wants a trade deal with the United States after President Donald Trump's decision on Wednesday to impose import tariffs of 10% on the United Kingdom.
• Trump said Britain would be among the countries that would face the new lowest tariff rate on imports to the United States, while dozens of other nations faced higher duties. Britain has been attempting to reach an economic deal with the U.S. by offering to more closely align with Washington on areas such as technology and has expressed hope that any tariffs can be reversed quickly once the two sides agree on terms.
• "The US is our closest ally, so our approach is to remain calm and committed to doing this deal, which we hope will mitigate the impact of what has been announced today," Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said in a statement after the tariffs were announced.
• Unlike the European Union and other major economies, Britain has not retaliated over other U.S. tariffs but has said that it would keep all options on the table. British business groups welcomed the government's approach, saying that while they were deeply disappointed by the tariffs, retaliating would only cause further economic disruption. "A cool and calm reaction from the UK Government is the right response: UK firms need a measured and proportionate approach which avoids further escalation," Rain Newton-Smith, the chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry, said in a statement.
• Britain's opposition Conservative Party blamed the Labour government for failing to negotiate an exemption from the tariffs, while the Liberal Democrats accused the U.S. of launching a "destructive trade war".

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaican economy contracted by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024 (Q4 2024) compared to Q4 2023, these are the findings in the latest release from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). The year over year decline in economic activity was due to the impact of Tropical Storm Rafael in November and the lingering effects of Hurricane Beryl. This marked the second consecutive quarterly decline for 2024,
• Despite a 0.4% increase in the Services Industries, the Goods Producing Industries declined by 4.3%, resulting in the overall falloff in real value added. All Goods Producing Industries experienced declines, with Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing contracting the most (-10.6%), followed by Construction (-2.7%), Mining & Quarrying (-2.3%), and Manufacturing (-0.5%). The decline in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing was observed in both the Traditional Export Crops and Other Agricultural Crops (including Animal Farming, Forestry & Fishing) sub-industries, which fell by 46.3% and 4.1%, respectively.
• The effects of Hurricane Beryl, compounded by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Rafael in November 2024, drove the sharp contraction in the Agricultural industry. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated total crop, livestock, and infrastructure damages at J$621Mn.
• Meanwhile, growth in the Services Industries was primarily attributed to increases in Producers of Government Services (0.8%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (0.2%), Transport, Storage & Communication (1.8%), Other Services (0.2%), and Finance & Insurance Services (0.5%). However, the growth was tempered by the declines in Electricity & Water Supply (-1.4%), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (-0.3%), Hotels & Restaurants (-0.3%), Other Services (-0.2%) and Finance & Insurance Services (-0.5%).
• Overall, preliminary estimates for the calendar year 2024 indicate that total value added at constant prices fell by 0.7% compared to 2023. However, looking ahead, there are signs that the economy could expand in 2025, with the PIOJ projecting a 0.1% to 1.0% increase for the March quarter.
• That said, there are risks to the outlook. The uncertainties around the Trump administration's trade, immigration and other policy changes could adversely affect remittances, exports, and tourist activity if they weaken U.S. consumer confidence through higher inflation and increased uncertainty. These developments could lead to a reduction in Jamaica’s current account balance while also affecting demand for the sovereign’s goods and services, given the likelihood of lower household income due to lower remittance inflows. Overall, lower demand would dampen economic growth and could lead to further local economic contraction

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Kingston Airport Revenue Finance LLC (KINAIR) project is expected to continue to withstand a hypothetical sovereign stress scenario attributable to its financial structure, which includes an offshore cash-funded reserve account and relatively steady air passenger volumes, given the airport's importance for Jamaica.
• In 2024, Norman Manley International Airport's traffic performance (1.76 million passengers) was in line with S&P Global Ratings' expectation of 1.75 million arrivals. Aeronautical charges were adjusted higher by 3.36% effective January 1, 2025.
• Importantly, total passengers at the airport rose 1.6% in 2024, with less than 1% of passengers being domestic passengers. International passengers were mainly traveling from the U.S. (primarily Fort Lauderdale, New York, and Miami), Canada, and the U.K.
• The three airlines that contributed most to the airport’s revenue in 2024 were JetBlue Airways Corporation, American Airlines Inc., and Caribbean Airlines Ltd. Together, they accounted for roughly 45% of the airport's airline-related revenue.
• For these reasons, S&P believes passenger traffic at the NMIA will grow 4%-6% in 2025 and 3%-5% in 2026. This will enable KINAIR, which benefits from 53.22% of the airport’s revenue and is intrinsically correlated to traffic volumes, to post the minimum and median DSCRs (debt service coverage ratios) during the first phase of the transaction of roughly 1.28x and roughly 1.3x, respectively, until an expected refinancing in 2036. For the second phase, S&P continues to expect minimum and median DSCRs of 1.3x.
• Kingston’s NMIA is owned by the Airports Authority of Jamaica. The authority operated the NMIA for about 45 years, but in 2019, it granted a 25-year concession to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico S.A.B. de C.V. (GAP), a private airport operator. As part of the agreement, GAP committed to the monthly transfer of 53.22% of the airport's aggregate revenue (consisting of aeronautical and commercial revenue) as the concession fee to the Airports Authority of Jamaica. The remaining 46.78% of revenue must cover NMIA's operations, maintenance costs, and capital expenditures. The concession fee is, therefore, senior to any of the airport's expenses.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Guyana on Monday received seven bids for the second phase of its landmark Gas-to-Energy project, which includes the design, construction, and operation of a 300-megawatt (MW) combined cycle power plant and a natural gas liquids (NGL) facility with a capacity to produce about 5,800 barrels per day (b/d).
• The bids were submitted by the following companies/groups: Karpowership Global DMCC (United Arab Emirates), ENKA UK Construction Limited (United Kingdom), Onex Holdings SCS (Luxembourg), Andalusian Energy (United States), J&L Supplies Guyana Inc. (Guyana), CXL Solutions LLC, LSI Group Sociedad Anonima (Guatemala), CH4 Systems (Puerto Rico), Lindsayca (Texas), LS Energia Inc (consortium including Controlmatik, ESE Servicios Electromecanicos, Carlos Caballero) (Florida)
• The tender, opened by the National Procurement and Tender Administration Board (NPTAB), sought private partners to develop the project under a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA), allowing investors to recover their costs through the sale of electricity and monetisation of NGLs. At the end of the PPA term, ownership of the facilities will be transferred to the government at no cost, the terms say.
• The project will utilise about 70 million cubic feet per day (cf/d) of natural gas—the remaining capacity of a pipeline being constructed to transport about 120 million cf/d from ExxonMobil’s Liza field offshore Guyana to the Wales Development Zone on the western bank of the Demerara River.
• Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo has said the second phase can be completed within two years. It will benefit from the same fiscal incentives granted to developers of the first phase—Lindsayca and CH4. Together, the two phases are expected to deliver a total of 600 MW of power and roughly 9,800 b/d of NGLs, significantly reducing Guyana’s dependence on imported fuels and lowering electricity costs, which are among the highest in the region.
• The first phase, currently under development, includes a 300 MW power plant and an NGL facility expected to produce around 4,000 barrels per day. It will use approximately 50 million cf/d of natural gas supplied by ExxonMobil, the operator of Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block.
• The Gas-to-Energy project is considered a transformational project for the South American nation, which became an oil producer in 2019.

(Source: Oil Now)

• Lackluster new U.S. jobs data and a weak report on manufacturing highlight an emerging concern among Federal Reserve (Fed) officials that employment could slip even as the risk of a tariff-driven round of inflation limits their ability to do anything about it.
• New data from Intuit's Small Business Index, compiled from the company's business software clients, showed the smallest firms shed around 98,000 jobs in March, a 0.82% decline from February.
• Data on hiring and layoffs for February showed a job market that was potentially losing steam more broadly, with a drop in job openings, a slight rise in layoffs, worker quit rates similar to those during the languid job market of the mid-2010s, and near balance in the demand for and supply of available employees.
• While investors following the report boosted bets the Fed would cut rates three times this year more than central bank officials are projecting, a separate report on manufacturing sent a more confusing signal.
• The Institute for Supply Management index of manufacturing activity fell, but its measure of prices paid by companies rose. "The manufacturing sector is showing the first signs that stagflation may be coming for the broader economy," wrote Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif, noting the price measure in the survey rose at the fastest pace since mid-2022. This could be a confounding situation for the Fed.
• Policymakers have said they will keep their benchmark policy rate in the current 4.25% to 4.5% range as they wait for a clearer understanding of how the tariffs and other policy changes being rolled out by President Donald Trump influence the economy. However, one near-term impact that concerns them - a weakening economy coupled with rising prices - offers no easy monetary policy response.
• New data on job growth and the unemployment rate for March will be released on Friday.

(Source: Reuters)