• The Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) has identified the expansion into emerging markets as a key strategic priority for 2025, with particular focus on Latin America.
• Tourism Director Donovan White announced the initiative during a press conference at JTB’s New Kingston office to launch the Jamaica Product Exchange (JAPEX) 2025. JAPEX is a collaborative effort between the JTB and the Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association (JHTA) and is positioned as a cornerstone of Jamaica’s tourism growth strategy.
• White noted that Jamaica’s tourism sector cannot rely solely on its existing customer base if it is to achieve sustained growth. Therefore, as part of this strategy, the JTB has institutionalised efforts to grow arrivals from developing economies, with 17 Latin American markets actively targeted. Collectively, these markets represent a population of over 600 million—nearly double the size of the United States, Jamaica’s largest source market.
• This strategic shift is taking place against the backdrop of softer performance in key source markets, with stopover arrivals from the U.S. and Canada both contracting by 3.1% in the first half of 2025 and arrivals out of Europe fell by 7.1%. Of note, arrivals from South American markets offset the contraction, with stopovers increasing by 77.2% over the same period.
• The JTB is also exploring new opportunities in the Indian market as well as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, further diversifying its long-term growth drivers.
• JAPEX was highlighted as a critical platform for strengthening Jamaica’s global tourism profile. The trade show convenes international buyers, local suppliers, businesses, and stakeholders, providing opportunities for partnerships and market development. The 2025 edition will be held from September 21–24 at the Montego Bay Convention Centre under the theme “JAPEX 2025: Ready, Set, Go!”.
• In addition to business meetings, international participants will engage in destination immersions, site visits, and product inspections, ensuring they depart with a clear understanding of Jamaica’s offerings and investment potential.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The newly appointed governor of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT), Larry Howai, has noted that the interest rate “will have to go up,” suggesting that ongoing negative interest-rate differentials with the U.S. discourage the repatriation of earnings to Trinidad and Tobago, exacerbating ongoing foreign exchange (FX) shortages on the island.
• While he did not specify the magnitude or timing of the increase, Fitch Solutions anticipates that the CBTT will raise the policy rate to approximately 5.50%-6.00% through 2026 as the U.S. Fed begins its easing cycle towards 3.50% over the same period. Historically, the policy rate differential averaged just under 250bps from 2010 to 2025, and Fitch anticipates a return to this stance.
• Howai outlined several possible non-monetary initiatives to address imbalances in the FX market, including tighter FX management, credit controls on consumer lending to reduce domestic consumption, and constraints on liquidity, many of which would likely require legislative approval.
• While Governor Howai suggested unequivocally that the central bank would adjust the policy rate to counter capital outflows and stabilise the domestic foreign-exchange market, he emphasised that this was merely an introductory discussion. That said, his announcement marks a notable shift in a monetary policy stance that has remained rigid in the face of inflation, with the policy rate held steady at 3.50% since March 2020.
• Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) maintains a de facto peg^[1] of its local currency against the US dollar (USD), leveraging large foreign-exchange interventions in the domestic market to stabilise the rate and reduce imported inflation. Despite reports that the T&T dollar is overvalued at the current pegged rate of TTD6.77 per USD, Howai asserted that changes to its exchange-rate regime were outside the bank’s mandate and would be left to elected policymakers, with the CBTT instead providing data and analytics to policymakers to assist their decision-making.
• However, the government has rejected calls to devalue the currency, with Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo insisting that any devaluation of the TTD would threaten inflation and stifle economic activity, especially in industries which use imported goods.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

^[1] A de facto peg refers to a situation where a country's exchange rate is not officially fixed (pegged) to another currency, but in practice, it behaves as if it is.

• In an extraordinary session on Monday, September 15, 2025, the Senate of the Dominican Republic urgently approved an amendment to Law 90-24, allowing the Executive Branch to issue and place public debt securities. The amendment raised the public debt ceiling to RD$361.618 billion, adding over RD$10 billion to the previously authorised limit. 
• Law 90-24 established the fiscal rule and was approved by Congress in July 2024. It established a real expenditure growth cap of 3% (7% in nominal terms) and a debt anchor of 40% of GDP by 2035.
• The Government, through President Luis Abinader, justified the measure as part of a fiscal policy "counter-cyclical" aimed at mitigating the effects of the international situation, boosting the economy and guaranteeing sustainability in public finances.
• The amendment raises the debt ceiling from RD$350Bn to RD$361.618Bn, adding over RD$10Bn to the previously authorised limit. Despite intense debate and opposition from Senator Edward Espíritusanto, who criticised the measure as “financial improvisation” and a growing reliance on debt, the bill passed with a majority vote.
• Currently, the Dominican Republic’s fiscal strength reflects improvements in fiscal deficit and debt trends since the pandemic. However, it still faces a shallow revenue base and high exposure to foreign-currency borrowing, which contributes to weaker debt affordability metrics relative to peers. The sovereign debt level in absolute terms and interest burdens are high relative to government revenue.
• That said, the share of foreign currency debt continues to decline gradually, through greater issuance of global peso-linked bonds in recent years.

(Sources: Dominican Today, Moody’s Investors Service & Fitch Ratings)

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday and indicated it will steadily lower borrowing costs for the rest of this year, as policymakers responded to concerns about weakness in the job market in a move that won support from most of President Donald Trump's central bank appointees. Only new Governor Stephen Miran, dissented in favour of a half-percentage-point cut.
• The rate cut, along with projections showing that two more quarter-percentage-point reductions are anticipated at the remaining two policy meetings this year, indicates Fed officials have begun to downplay the risk that the administration's voluble trade policies will stoke persistent inflation, and are now more concerned about weakening growth and the likelihood of rising unemployment. The cut, the first move by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee since December, lowered the policy rate to the 4.00%-4.25% range.
• In a press conference after the conclusion of the Fed meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said, "In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation" for monetary policymakers. He added, "labour demand has softened, and the recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the break-even rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant," noting "the marked slowing in both the supply and demand for workers is unusual."
• New economic projections showed policymakers still see inflation ending this year at 3%, well above the central bank's 2% target, a projection unchanged from the last set of forecasts in June. The projection for unemployment was also unchanged at 4.5% and the one for economic growth was slightly higher at 1.6% versus 1.4%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Canada reduced its key policy rate to a three-year low of 2.5% on Wednesday, the first cut in six months, and said it would be ready to cut again if risks to the economy increased in the coming months.
• The 25-basis-point cut reflected a weak jobs market and less concern about underlying pressures on inflation, the bank said. It paused its easing campaign in March after reducing rates by a total of 225 basis points in nine months, starting in June last year.
• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the damaging effect of U.S. tariffs meant considerable uncertainty remained. "But with a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks going forward," he said in opening remarks to reporters.
• The cut was a unanimous decision of the seven-member Governing Council, Macklem said. The last time the key rate hit 2.50% was in July 2022. The economy initially held up reasonably well in the face of tariffs in some critical sectors. But in the last two months, the job market has slumped, losing more than 100,000 positions. The unemployment rate is at a nine-year high, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic years.
• The bank's next rate announcement is on October 29, followed by another one in December. While economists are widely expecting another rate cut before the end of the year, money markets are not factoring in more easing in 2025.

(Source: Reuters)

• Weighed down by a falloff in earnings and higher operating expenses, Marketing & Advertising Agency, The Limners and Bards Limited (LAB) posted lower earnings attributable to shareholders for the three months ended July 31, 2025 (Q3 2025),
• Total revenues fell 13.0% year over year (YoY) to J$267.14Mn. The lower revenue outturn was accompanied by an 18.6% YoY decline in direct costs to J$165.38Mn. With direct costs contracting at a faster pace than revenues, gross profit margin improved to 38.1% in Q3 2025, up 4.2 percentage points from 33.9% in Q3 2024.
• However, total operating expenses rose by 10.5% during the quarter, driven by higher Administrative (+9.4%) and Selling & Distribution (+289.7%) costs. This pressured profitability, with operating profit falling 25.3% YoY to J$22.33Mn. Ultimately, net profit declined 36.5% to J$21.69 million, down from J$34.13 million in the prior-year quarter.
• The Q3 earnings performance, along with weak earnings from the start of the financial year, contributed to the company’s nine-month results (9M 2025), plummeting 49.4% to J$42.3 million year over year. Management attributed the weaker showing primarily to elevated operating costs tied to strategic hires in business development, content creation, and client service, as well as facility upgrades. These investments, while dampening short-term earnings, are expected to bolster long-term growth potential.
• Looking ahead, management is aiming to stabilise short-term performance while laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. Its strategy is focused on diversifying beyond traditional advertising into digital-first services, influencer and user-generated content solutions, and content ownership through its “Five in 25” film slate. The company also noted growing traction in overseas markets, which now contribute 9% of total revenues. Meanwhile, it is seeking to contain operating costs through smarter resourcing, while protecting growth-focused investments, and embedding technology and flexible talent models to enhance efficiency, speed turnaround times, and strengthen competitiveness.
• LAB’s stock price has declined by 29.6% year-to-date, closing at $0.98 as of Tuesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 25.8x, which is above the Junior Market Sector average of 22.1x.

(Sources: The LAB Ltd. Unaudited Earnings Release & NCBCM Research)

• Lumber Depot Limited (LUMBER) reported net profit of J$37.93Mn, for the first quarter ended July 31, 2025 (Q1 2025), reflecting a 16.1% year-over-year (YoY) decline. This was primarily due to the introduction of an income tax charge following the company’s transition from the JSE Junior Market tax exemption regime.
• Revenues grew 3.9% YoY to close at J$401.54Mn, driven by steady demand in its Papine hardware operations. However, sales were skewed toward basic construction commodities and accompanied by continued price competitiveness, which tempered revenue growth.
• Direct expenses also rose by 6.1%, outpacing revenue growth. As a result, gross profit slipped 3.1% to J$89.23 million, while gross profit margin declined by 16 basis points to 22.2%.
• That said, operating expenses were contained (-4.9%), allowing the company to deliver an operating profit of J$44.23Mn, which was relatively flat compared to Q1 2024 J$44.68Mn.
• However, with the expiration of its five-year 100% tax remission in December 2024, the company has income tax expense, which it did not incur in the prior year. Consequently, LAB incurred J$5.42Mn in income tax during the quarter. This new tax charge weighed on the bottom line and drove the 16.1% YoY decline in net profit.
• Management noted that the company continues to maintain a strong market presence in Papine, supported by its owned facility and high community traffic. It is also actively exploring expansion opportunities, including investment in adjacent properties to broaden its footprint. If successful, it would allow the company to expand its operations to better serve its market, with the potential for improved earnings.
• Lumber’s stock price increased by 1.1% year-to-date, closing at $2.76 on September 16th.

(Sources: Lumber Depot Ltd. Unaudited Earnings Release & NCBCM Research)

• Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T) energy sector could face growing challenges in the coming years as the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market heads toward oversupply, the Energy Chamber of T&T has warned. The warning comes in the wake of recent statements by TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné.
• While demand for natural gas is projected to rise by more than 20% by 2050 compared with 2024, Pouyanné cautioned that the rapid expansion of LNG capacity, particularly in the US, Qatar, and Canada, could push global prices down. 'There is a point where we'll face some oversupply,' Pouyanné said, highlighting the potential challenges for producers even as lower prices benefit consumers. Pouyanné also noted that lower LNG prices could make the fuel competitive with the price of coal in key growth markets, including China, potentially triggering a shift from coal and diesel to natural gas. This transition could establish a foundational long-term demand base, supporting future supply cycles.
• The Energy Chamber said the potential future decline in LNG prices raises key considerations for a country like T&T, where short-term prices of energy commodities have a direct relation to the revenue earned by the government through taxes and other revenue. 'LNG is Trinidad and Tobago's major export and source of foreign exchange. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Europe's moves to stop imports of Russian pipeline gas, LNG prices in both Europe and Asia have been at historically high levels. European and East Asian LNG import prices are currently over US$11.00 per mmsf compared to the US Henry Hub benchmark price of under US$3,' it stated.
• The renegotiated Atlantic marketing arrangements mean that Trinidad & Tobago's wellhead gas prices reflect these high Asian and European LNG prices; however, future LNG price decreases could put further strain on government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. This potential for declining LNG prices highlights the importance of a national policy where there is a range of different export routes for natural gas, rather than relying solely on LNG.
• 'Maintaining a portfolio of different routes to monetise gas is an important strategic national policy consideration, underlining the importance of ensuring that there is a diversity of downstream gas processing facilities in the country, including petrochemicals such as methanol and ammonia. This means that there is a broader portfolio of export commodities and potentially provides some greater stability in export earnings and government revenue,' the Energy Chamber stated.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August as consumers purchased a range of goods and dined out, though a weakening labour market and rising prices linked to tariffs pose downside risks to sustained spending.
• Retail sales climbed 0.6% last month after an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in July, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% rise following a previously reported 0.5% July increase. Sales were up 5.0% year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation, economists estimated monthly sales rose only 0.2%.
• The Trump administration had argued tariffs would be absorbed by exporting countries, but data show otherwise, with signs pointing to faster inflation ahead. A separate report from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics showed import prices rose for a second consecutive month in August, driven by higher costs for consumer goods, capital goods, and motor vehicles.
• “The lack of any substantial decline in import prices given the surge in the effective tariff rate to roughly 15–16% suggests that those additional costs are being borne nearly entirely by U.S. businesses and consumers,” said Michael Hanson, an economist at J.P. Morgan.
• Meanwhile, the labour market continues to struggle, marked by meagre job gains and rising unemployment as companies hold off on hiring amid an uncertain economic outlook, posing a risk to consumer spending.
• Still, the third straight month of solid sales gains is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates on Wednesday, given widening cracks in the labour market. It may, however, temper the case for more aggressive cuts, economists said.
• The U.S. central bank is expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday to support the labour market. The Fed had paused its easing cycle in January amid uncertainty about the inflationary impact of import duties.

(Source: Reuters)

• China's factory output and retail sales reported their weakest growth since last year in August, keeping pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus to fend off a sharp slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.
• The disappointing data split economists over whether policymakers would need more near-term fiscal support to hit their annual growth target of "around 5%," with manufacturers awaiting more clarity on a U.S. trade deal and domestic demand curbed by a wobbly job market and property crisis.
• Industrial output grew 5.2% year-on-year, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Monday, the lowest reading since August 2024 and weaker than a 5.7% rise in July. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, expanded 3.4% in August, the slowest pace since November 2024, and cooled from a 3.7% rise in the previous month. They missed a forecast gain of 3.9%.
• "The strong start to the year still keeps this year's growth targets within reach, but similar to where we were at this time last year, further stimulus support could be needed to ensure a strong finish to the year," said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China at ING.
• "While it is too early to gauge the impact of the consumer loan subsidies coming into effect in September, it is likely that more policy support is still needed, given the broader slowdown across the board. We continue to see a high possibility for another 10bp rate cut and 50bp RRR cut in the coming weeks."
• Authorities are leaning on manufacturers to find new markets to offset U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policy and weak consumer spending. However, a separate data this month showed factory owners have had some success diverting U.S.-bound shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, but the drag from the property crisis continues to offset efforts to steady the economy.
• Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ, said that while the data showed momentum in the world's second-largest economy was weakening, it was not yet bad enough to trigger a new round of stimulus. "Policies and measures to support service consumption are expected to offset the impact of aggregate demand this month," he said, adding an official crackdown on firms aggressively cutting prices made domestic demand appear worse than it was.

(Source: Reuters)