• As betting markets had expected, the Supreme Court of the US (SCOTUS) struck down President Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, which he justified by emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Since SCOTUS’s decision, Trump has raised Section 122 tariffs on all imports from 10% (announced on February 20) to 15%, effective February 24, 2025, in line with expectations for renewed tariff volatility after the ruling.
• The good news is that Trump can legally go no further under Section 122 than the 15% he has now imposed. The bad news is that uncertainty will remain elevated as the Section 122 tariffs are subject to review by Congress after 150 days. Meanwhile, Trump retains options under Sections 232 and 301 to impose further tariffs and could seek to build out a patchwork of sector‑specific measures to offset the temporary nature of the Section 122 tariffs.
• Notwithstanding those open questions, the developments so far warrant a fresh estimate of the growth impact on Asian economies of these tariff changes. The chief result is that while Emerging Markets (EMs) are generally better off in terms of GDP growth, most Developed Markets (DMs) are slightly worse off. The main reason is that exports from DMs such as Singapore and Australia now face a higher 15% tariff rate under Section 122, compared with the 10% ‘reciprocal’ tariffs under IEEPA. By contrast, tariffs on exports from EMs including India and Vietnam are now lower.
• BMI analyst presents three possible impact scenarios, depending on how much of the tariff savings are passed on to consumers, and the degree to which consumers respond to those savings by buying more imported goods. Conservatively, the agency believes the growth impact on Asian economies will fall short of the ‘100% passthrough, high elasticity’ scenario.
• Asian governments’ reactions introduce an additional downside risk to these growth estimates. Most regional governments have responded cautiously, emphasising continuity of existing tariff outcomes while privately flagging legal uncertainty around trade deals struck with Trump under IEEPA. Japan and Singapore have framed the Section 122 tariffs as largely preserving previously agreed 15% ceilings, but both have sought clarity on implementation and refunds, underscoring lingering uncertainty. Similarly, Jamaica now faces higher tariffs of 15% up from 10%.
• By contrast, South Korea and India have stressed that earlier deals rested on a legal foundation that no longer exists, raising the risk of delayed investment decisions and renewed bilateral negotiations. China has gone further, arguing that arrangements derived from unlawful tariffs lack legitimacy altogether. Taken together, these reactions point to a risk that policy uncertainty persists for longer than currently. This would weigh on corporate confidence and dampen the pass-through from lower tariffs to trade volumes, particularly in export‑dependent Asian DMs.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Britain does not expect U.S. President Donald Trump's new global tariff of 15% to impact the "majority" of a UK-U.S. economic deal that was announced last year, according to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's spokesman. The spokesman said Britain's Trade Minister, Peter Kyle, had spoken with Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, to highlight his concerns about the uncertainty this would cause for businesses.
• Britain is at risk of becoming one of the worst hit countries after the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff decision and Trump’s response. Starmer's government had negotiated a lower reciprocal tariff rate at 10% after reaching a deal with the U.S. last year, but Trump’s promise to reimpose higher levies at 15% means businesses may now face even higher duties.
• Starmer's spokesman said the government expects discussions between British and U.S. officials to continue this week and he refused to rule out the possibility of retaliatory tariffs. "We don’t expect this ruling to impact the majority of trade" under the UK-U.S. economic deal, including tariffs agreed on steel, pharmaceuticals and cars, the spokesman said.
• Britain will be among the countries most impacted by Trump's latest announcement, according to the think tank Global Trade Alert, while Brazil, China and India stand to benefit the most. Starmer's spokesman said businesses do not want "to see a trade war", but he said "nothing is off the table at this stage".

(Source: Reuters)

• Against the background of the falloff in consumer prices in January, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced the policy rate at its meetings on February 19 and 20, 2026.
• The Committee assessed that Hurricane Melissa’s direct impact on inflation was less severe than initially anticipated, as agricultural supplies improved faster than expected and mild exchange-rate appreciation helped to ease price pressures.
• Against this improved inflation outturn and outlook, the MPC unanimously reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, effective February 24, 2026, while signalling it would remain proactive in preserving relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
• The MPC expects inflation to generally track within the target over the next eight quarters, although it anticipates temporary breaches of the upper limit in the June and September 2026 quarters, before inflation is projected to return to the 4.0%–6.0% target range by end-December 2026. This improved profile reflects a moderation in projected second-round price effects and a decline in private-sector inflation expectations toward more normal levels.
• The easing inflation backdrop was supported by official data showing headline inflation of 3.9% in January 2026, down from 4.5% in December 2025 and below the Bank’s projection, largely due to declining food prices as agricultural conditions normalised and the exchange rate strengthened modestly. Core inflation (excluding agricultural food and fuel) also eased to 3.9% in January 2026 from 4.2% in December 2025, signalling broader disinflation momentum beyond food.
• While the MPC characterised risks to the inflation outlook as balanced, it flagged downside risks from weaker-than-expected domestic demand recovery and upside risks from adverse weather, higher-than-projected inflation expectations, and stronger domestic spending tied to post-hurricane recovery. The MPC also noted that the temporary suspension of the fiscal rule could enable larger fiscal deficits over the next three years, potentially adding demand-side pressure and contributing to second-round inflation effects if productive capacity becomes constrained.

(Source: BOJ)

• For the December quarter, Palace Amusement’s (PAL’s) performance was materially impacted by the passage of Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, alongside generally softer cinema traffic. These headwinds widened net losses to J$87.82Mn, compared with a loss of J$26.41Mn in the corresponding period last year.
• Revenue contracted sharply by 43.3% year over year to $196.86Mn, reflecting softer cinema attendance and the closure of its Montego Bay location following hurricane damage. The location remains closed as Palace continues to assess the damage and work with its Insurers to settle claims.
• With topline performance under pressure, Palace recorded a gross loss of $23.58Mn. Administrative expenses of J$49.49Mn further deepened the operating deficit to J$73.02Mn. Elevated finance costs of J$14.80Mn compounded the weakness, weighing further on bottom-line results for the quarter.
• The weak December quarter exacerbated year-to-date performance. For the six months ended December 2025, net losses widened to J$115.03Mn, compared with J$62.86Mn in the prior year. Revenue declined 20.1% to J$553.37Mn, while operating losses expanded to J$86.14Mn, underscoring the sustained drag from hurricane-related disruption and softer film traffic.
• In 2025, the global cinema exhibition industry recorded only modest growth of approximately 8%, masking a broader structural slowdown as consumer preferences continue to pivot toward streaming platforms. This secular shift has intensified competitive pressures on traditional cinema operators, compressing margins and limiting pricing power.
• However, emerging demographic trends may provide a counterbalance to these structural headwinds. According to research conducted by National Research Group (NRG), children and pre-teens, particularly Generation Alpha (those born between 2013 and 2025) demonstrate a stronger preference for the theatrical experience relative to older audiences. This cohort could play a pivotal role in revitalising cinema attendance over the medium term.
• Against this backdrop, Palace intends to capitalise on this opportunity by enhancing the in-theatre experience and positioning itself as more than just a box office operator. The strategic focus is to expand its footprint within the broader entertainment ecosystem, capturing a greater share of consumer discretionary spending and reinforcing the long-term earning potential of the business.
• Since the start of the year, PAL’s stock price has decreased by 5.1%, to close at $3.43 and $0.93, respectively, on February 23, 2026.

(Sources: Palace Amusement Company Ltd. and NCBCM Research)

• In January 2026, Trinidad and Tobago’s headline inflation rate, as measured by the year-on-year change in the All-Items Index, was 0.7%. This outturn reflects a slight uptick in price momentum compared to the 0.4% recorded in December 2025. Notably, the current rate has returned to the same level observed in January 2025 (7%), suggesting a stabilisation of annual price growth after a year-end dip.
• The All-Items Index calculated from the prices collected for January 2026 was 125.8, representing an increase of 0.6 points or 0.5% above December 2025.
• The Index for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages increased from 152.9 in December 2025 to 153.4 in January 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.3%.
• Contributing significantly to this increase was the general upward movement in the prices of fresh whole chicken, fresh carite, ochras, tomatoes, plantains, chilled or frozen turkey parts, eddoes, parboiled rice, fresh king fish and melongene. However, the full impact of these price increases was offset by the general decrease in the prices of cucumber, irish potatoes, tea in bags, chocolate malt beverages, hot peppers, chive, soya bean oil, grapes, cabbage and celery.
• Outside of food, several other categories saw price changes between December 2025 and January 2026. The sub-index for Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco of 1.0%, Health of 0.3%, Recreation and Culture of 5.3%, Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants of 0.1% and Miscellaneous Goods and Services of 0.5%.
• At the same time, some sectors experienced price declines. Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House of 0.8%, Transport of 0.2% and Communication of 0.1%. All other sections remained unchanged.

(Sources: Trinidad Express Newspaper & NCBCM Research)

• Mexico's economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter, registering its strongest quarterly expansion in more than a year, official data showed on Monday.
• Latin America's second-largest economy grew 0.9% in the fourth quarter, slightly above a preliminary estimate published last month by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and forecasts from economists in a Reuters poll, both of which pointed to a 0.8% expansion.
• The data was an improvement from a revised 0.1% expansion in the third quarter, data from INEGI showed, and marked the strongest performance since the third quarter of 2024.
• The economy was mainly fueled by the secondary sector, which includes manufacturing and construction, and tertiary activities, which both grew 0.9% compared with the prior quarter. Those increases made up for the 1.4% contraction from primary activities, which include farming, fishing and mining. In annual terms, the economy expanded 1.8% in the quarter compared to a year earlier, also above expectations.
• Despite the solid fourth-quarter data, analysts have remained cautious about Mexico's economy in 2026, expecting a slow track amid high uncertainty as the review of the USMCA trade deal with the United States and Canada approaches.
• Throughout last year, the Mexican economy grew by 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis, a figure also slightly higher than the 0.7% estimate previously provided by INEGI.

(Source: Reuters)

• The European Commission demanded on Sunday, February 22, 2026, that the United States (U.S.) stick to the terms of an EU-U.S. trade deal reached last year, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's global tariffs and he responded with new levies across the board.
• The Commission, which negotiates trade policy on behalf of the 27 EU member states, said Washington must provide "full clarity" on the steps it intends to take following the court ruling. After the court struck down Trump's global tariffs on Friday, February 20, 2026, the U.S. president announced temporary, across-the-board tariffs of 10%, which he then hiked to 15% a day later.
• "The current situation is not conducive to delivering 'fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides" in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year's trade agreement, the Commission said. "A deal is a deal." The comments were far more strongly worded than the Commission's initial response on Friday, which had said only that it was studying the outcome of the Supreme Court decision and keeping in contact with the U.S. administration.
• Last year's trade deal set a 15% U.S. tariff rate for most EU goods, apart from those covered by other sectoral tariffs, such as on steel. It also allowed zero tariffs on some products such as aircraft and spare parts. The EU agreed to remove import duties on many U.S. goods and withdrew a threat to retaliate with higher levies. It is not clear whether Trump's new 15% tariffs supersede the EU-U.S. deal. If they do, the EU's zero tariff exemptions could disappear. The new tariffs could also be placed on top of pre-existing 'most-favoured-nation' U.S. duties, which is not the case under the EU-U.S. deal.
• Furthermore, the comparative advantage the EU had with a 15% tariff would appear to have disappeared as even countries without a deal face that rate. Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimates that the EU as a whole will be 0.8 percentage points worse off, with Italy facing an extra 1.7 percentage points of U.S. tariffs. The EU executive added that unpredictable tariffs were disruptive and undermined confidence across global markets.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 as the government shutdown impacted spending and investment, while a key inflation metric showed high prices are still a factor for the economy.
• Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annualised rate of just 1.4%, according to the Commerce Department, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 2.5% gain. Consumer spending increased at a slower pace for the period while government spending tumbled sharply in a quarter marked by the record-length shutdown. The department estimated that the shutdown subtracted about 1 percentage point from growth, though it added that the exact impacts “cannot be quantified.”
• For the full year in 2025, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% pace, down from the 2.8% increase in 2024. “The Federal government shutdown clearly sent the economy careening off its strong growth path in the fourth quarter which is a one-off that won’t be repeated in early 2026,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds. Just before the data release, President Donald Trump warned that the GDP number would be soft, blaming it on the government shutdown that ended in November 2025.
• While growth slowed, inflation held firm in December 2025, according to the gauge most closely watched by Fed officials. The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE index), which excludes food and energy, rose 3% in December 2025, up 0.2 percentage point from November 2025, according to a separate release. That matched the consensus forecast but kept the pivotal inflation measure well above the Fed’s 2% target. On a headline basis, the PCE index accelerated 2.9%, or 0.1 percentage points higher than expected.
• On a monthly basis, goods prices climbed 0.4% while services increased 0.3%, indicating that price pressures remained relatively broad-based rather than concentrated in any single category. Fed policymakers have been watching that balance closely to see whether inflation is being spurred by temporary tariff-related pressures that would hit goods, or more fundamental demand-driven factors that would show up in services.
• While Trump blamed the shutdown, the Commerce Department said the deceleration in GDP, which grew at a 4.4% rate in the third quarter, was the result in a pullback in consumer spending and exports, as well as the impact from the government closure that ran from Oct. 1, 2025 to Nov. 12, 2025. Personal consumption expenditures, a proxy for consumer outlays, rose 2.4% in the quarter, down from the 3.5% gain in the prior period. Exports fell 0.9% after surging 9.6% in Q3.

(Source: CNBC)

• Woodcats International Limited (Woodcats) kicked off Jamaica’s 2026 primary market activity on a solid note, announcing that its offer of 833,333,333 ordinary shares was oversubscribed at the close of the invitation on February 11, 2026.
• The Initial Public Offering (IPO), which opened under a prospectus dated January 26, 2026, represents the first public offer of the year and signals healthy retail investor appetite for new issues. Demand was particularly strong in the General Public pool, which was oversubscribed, while the Employee Reserve, Key Partner Reserve, and Strategic Investor Reserve pools were each allotted 100% of subscriptions received.
• Under the basis of allotment, General Public applicants will receive full allocation on the first 25,000 shares applied for and approximately 67.66% of the balance requested, with refunds to be processed for partially filled applications in keeping with the prospectus terms. Multiple applications from the same Jamaica Central Securities Depository Limited (JCSD) account were consolidated for allocation purposes, reinforcing fairness in distribution.
• Woodcats will now move to list its shares on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) Junior Market, marking the first Junior Market listing to utilise the increased J$750Mn capitalisation limit. Lead broker NCB Capital Markets Limited credited strong investor confidence for the successful outcome, positioning the IPO as a positive start to Jamaica’s 2026 capital markets activity.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica is setting its sights on 2026 as the pivotal year to revive its tourism sector, aiming for a substantial rebound after Hurricane Melissa’s devastation in late 2025. With an ambitious target of attracting 500,000 British visitors annually by 2030, the island is focusing on key strategies, including expanding airlift, promoting community-driven tourism experiences, and continuing post-hurricane recovery efforts. By the end of 2026, the island is expected to see tourism returns reaching 80% of pre-hurricane levels, reflecting its resilience and forward-thinking approach.
• The tourism industry has faced a challenging year, with approximately 30% of Jamaica’s tourism infrastructure impacted by the hurricane. However, recovery has been swift, with 70% of the island’s room inventory restored by early 2026, and the remaining properties set to be back online by the end of the year. During this rebuild phase, several resorts are seizing the opportunity to enhance their offerings, ensuring that when they reopen, they will provide upgraded, high-quality experiences for visitors.
• A cornerstone of Jamaica’s recovery plan is the United Kingdom (U.K.) market. Visitor numbers dropped by 6% early in 2025 due to a reduction in flight capacity by TUI Airways, which also ended its homeporting of the Marella cruise line in Montego Bay. Despite this setback, the island is focused on strengthening its ties with U.K. travellers. As part of this strategy, major U.K. airlines are expanding their services to Jamaica for the summer of 2026. TUI will add an extra weekly flight from both London Gatwick and Manchester to Montego Bay, British Airways will increase its London-Gatwick to Kingston service, and Virgin Atlantic will make its London Heathrow to Montego Bay route a daily operation.
• Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett has emphasised the critical role of this expanded airlift in achieving Jamaica’s long-term tourism goals. This initiative reflects Jamaica’s ongoing commitment to strengthening its cultural and historical ties with the UK, as well as capitalising on the deep-rooted diaspora connections.
• In line with shifting travel preferences, Jamaica is adapting its tourism product to meet evolving demands. While traditional resort holidays remain popular, British visitors are increasingly seeking more authentic, immersive travel experiences. According to research from British Airways and the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA), British tourists are gravitating toward story-driven journeys and cultural engagement. Jamaica is responding by offering farm-to-table dining experiences, community volunteering programs, and culturally immersive itineraries that highlight the island’s rich heritage and local traditions.
• Minister Bartlett also outlined plans for further development to enhance the island’s tourism appeal. Among these initiatives is the redesign of the Falmouth cruise port, which is set to become a more vibrant, engaging destination for cruise passengers. Additionally, five major resort developments are in the pipeline, positioning Jamaica to meet the demands of a new generation of travellers while revitalising its tourism infrastructure.

(Source: Travel and Tour World)