• Oil prices plunged on Wednesday morning, May 6, 2026, on news that the US and Iran may be within striking distance of a deal to end the war in Iran that has wracked the global energy market. Futures on Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell by as much as 11% to briefly dip below $100 per barrel before regaining the level, after only a week ago crossing $126 per barrel.
• The precipitous drop in oil prices comes after reports that Washington and Tehran may be close to reaching an agreement to end the war, now in its third month, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Key provisions of the deal in progress include a moratorium on Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program, US agreements to lift sanctions on Iran and release billions of dollars in frozen funds, and commitments from both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow commercial traffic to restart.
• Iran is expected to send a response to the US proposal through mediator nation Pakistan within the next two days, Bloomberg reported. Ebrahim Rezaei, the spokesperson for Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said Wednesday that the terms reported by Axios represent an American “wish list,” and that Tehran is prepared to respond militarily if its own demands aren’t met.
• The news comes after President Trump said Tuesday night that he was ending “Project Freedom,” the White House’s public operation to guide vessels out of the Persian Gulf through Omani waters, after announcing the plan only two days prior on Sunday, May 3, 2026.
• If both sides agreed on the preliminary deal, that would start the clock on 30 days of detailed negotiations to reach a full agreement. The full agreement would include the U.S. lifting sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian funds, Iran and the United States lifting competing blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, and curbs on Iran's nuclear programme, to seek a pause or moratorium on Iranian enrichment of uranium.
• That said, even if the US were to reach a deal with Iran and both sides were to agree to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it is likely to still take months for the global energy system to normalise. The bill for repairs to critical energy infrastructure has surpassed $50Bn, according to Rystad Energy, and shipowners will be loath to face the risk of re-escalatory military action by Iran.

(Sources: Reuters & Yahoo Finance)

• British government bond yields dropped sharply on Wednesday, May 6, 2026, as investors scaled back their bets on interest rate hikes after officials in Pakistan said the ​United States and Iran were closing in on a one-page memorandum to end the ‌war.
• Financial markets trimmed their expectations for ​increases in borrowing costs by the Bank of England (BoE) this year, pricing in 49 ​bps of interest rate hikes, equivalent to two quarter-point rises.
• Two-year gilt yields, which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, slumped 18 basis points to 4.339% on Wednesday morning and were on course for the biggest daily drop in almost a month. Longer-dated yields also fell, ⁠with the 10-year yield falling as much as 15 bps to 4.905%, the lowest since ​April 23. Thirty-year gilt yields were down 14 bps. That contrasted with moves on Tuesday, when ​30-year gilt yields rose to their highest since 1998.
• Since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in late ​February, British bond prices have slumped and fallen further as an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz did not ​materialise. However, the U.S. and Iran are nearing a deal to end the war soon, according to reports on Wednesday, May 6, 2026.
• Investors viewed the reports of a possible deal to end the war, which triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, as reducing the risk of another inflation shock, prompting markets to scale back expectations for further BoE tightening and fuelling a broad rally across UK government bonds and equities on Wednesday.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Widely regarded as a leader in Jamaica’s gaming industry, Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) has taken a step into digital banking through its fintech arm, Supreme Ventures Fintech Limited (SVFL).
• In its 2025 Annual Report, released on May 1, 2026, the company highlighted the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) approval of its digital wallet and prepaid card as a key milestone toward secure, inclusive, and convenient payment solutions. The BOJ’s approval signifies that SVL’s digital wallet meets stringent national security, anti-money laundering (AML), and financial stability standards.
• This new addition to its financial services segment is scheduled for launch by the end of 2026 and is anticipated to serve as a key growth driver for the Group. Its impact will be fueled by a strengthened financial ecosystem, enabling greater convenience and a more seamless customer experience.
• While lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa may continue to weigh on some of SVL’s business segments, particularly retail-dependent channels, recent performance suggests that operations are stabilising. Terminal recovery in the lottery segment reached approximately 98%, and its Q1 2026 earnings were up 37.8% to $700.62Mn. Its earnings were supported by steady revenue growth and improved operating efficiency, despite expectations of a slowdown similar to its experience in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl (July 2024).
• Management expects that continued growth in its fintech arm through ongoing expansions should be accretive to SVL’s bottom line.
• SVL’s stock price was J$16.21 at the market close on Monday, May 4, 2026, down 6.2% since the start of the year. However, the stock has increased by 5.5% since the release of earnings, recovering some of its losses. At this price, SVL trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.98x, which is below the Main Market average of 24.9x

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The local agro-industrial sector is set to receive a significant boost following a deepening of bilateral relations with Japan, aimed at improving productivity, resilience and export readiness among small enterprises.
• Under a Japan-funded project being implemented by the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO), approximately US$200,000 will be injected into the country’s agro-processing industry.
• The initiative forms part of the wider ‘Industrial Development and Technology Transfer among the member states of the Caribbean Community’ programme, under which Jamaica has been selected as the demonstration country for agro-industrial technology transfer.
• The programme will provide direct support to micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) while also strengthening the capacity of the Jamaica Business Development Corporation (JBDC) to deliver advanced, technology-driven services.
• Utilising a structured, three-pronged approach with a strong focus on incubation support, the initiative will give participating enterprises access to equipment such as steam-jacketed kettles, hammer mills, dehydrators, freeze dryers, density meters, and screw presses, enabling them to scale operations and improve efficiency.
• Acting CEO of the JBDC, Harold Davis, said the initiative, designed to support MSMEs through technology transfer, capacity building, and improved market access, will help businesses compete more effectively.
• Through the application process, being implemented in collaboration with the JBDC, selected enterprises will receive integrated support packages combining access to appropriate equipment and technical advisory services. Special emphasis will be placed on businesses affected by Hurricane Melissa. Highlighting the critical role of MSMEs in Jamaica’s economy, Japan’s Ambassador to Jamaica Kohei Maruyama, said the programme is designed to strengthen their capacity not only to withstand shocks but also to drive inclusive growth.
• The application period, expected to close on May 15, 2026, seeks to welcome eligible applicants that are legally registered manufacturing enterprises operating in Jamaica, particularly within the agro-processing, furniture and wood products, as well as the wellness and cosmeceutical sectors. Women-led and youth-led enterprises are strongly encouraged to apply.

(Source: Ministry of Industry Investment & Commerce)

• The Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market recorded its fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the Central Bank’s latest Annual Economic Survey. In 2025, declines in the Composite Price Index (CPI) deepened, falling 11.8%, driven by a 13.2% drop in the All T&T Index (ATI) and a 7.3% contraction in the Cross Listed Index (CLI). As a result, total stock market capitalisation fell 10.2% to $91.9Bn. Investor pessimism is being fueled by the underperformance of the domestic energy and non-energy sectors, alongside global and domestic uncertainty. For the four (4) years, the index has declined by 54.5%.
• In contrast, the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME) Market index rebounded, recording double-digit gains for most of 2025, though it ended 2025 modestly at 1.6%. Improvements in Eric Solis Marketing Ltd’s performance, and the addition of Medcorp Ltd, the fourth company to be listed on the SME Market, contributed positively to the overall gains observed.
• That said, the performance of regionally-listed stocks deteriorated. The decline in stock exchanges in Barbados and Jamaica contributed to the falls in the CEI. However, stock market capitalisation in Guyana rebounded strongly, increasing by 29.9%.
• Nevertheless, bursts of activity contributed to an overall improvement in turnover. For 2025, the first-tier market observed 129.5Mn (+46.9%) shares exchanged at a value of $994.1Mn (+18.2%), corresponding to a turnover ratio of 1.02 (2024: 0.79). The Conglomerates index recorded the highest trading volume, accounting for 44.5% or 57.6Mn shares, while the Banking index captured 55.6% of total trading value, amounting to $552.4Mn.
• In the bond market, primary debt grew in 2025 despite lower issuances. The local bond market recorded 11 (-31.3%) primary issues at a face value of $11,992.41Mn. up from $10,175.6Mn in 2024. The Government was the only issuer in the market, raising funds for budget support and debt refinancing. Value of trades on the secondary government bond market was also higher, while the volume of trades dipped in 2025. The secondary market recorded 419 (-2.1%) trades at a face value of $262.6Mn. In comparison, a total of 428 trades were recorded at a face value of $96.9Mn in 2024.
• For 2025, the 1-year rate increased by 66 basis points (bps) to 4.60% while the two-year rate jumped by 35bps to 4.65%. During the period, the three-year and five-year rates advanced by 55bps and 39bps to 4.56% and 5.26%, respectively. The benchmark 10-year rate gained 35bps to 5.91%.

(Sources: Trinidad Express Newspapers & NCBCM Research)

• Chile’s Central Bank (BCCh) and Brazil’s Central Bank (BCB) took diverging policy paths last week (April 28th and 29th). The BCCh held its policy rate steady at 4.50%, while the BCB delivered a modest 25 basis point (bps) cut to 14.50%, reflecting different domestic conditions despite the shared global shock.
• Both central banks pointed to the escalating US–Iran conflict as a key driver of uncertainty, with the surge in global oil prices raising concerns about inflation, weakening growth prospects, and increasing the difficulty of setting forward-looking monetary policy.
• In Chile, the impact has been particularly acute due to the government’s decision to allow higher global oil prices to pass through to domestic fuel costs, resulting in a sharp rise in fuel prices and pushing inflation from below target (3.0%) toward a projected 5.2% by the end of 2026.
• The inflation surge comes at a fragile moment for Chile’s economy, which has already shown signs of contraction and rising unemployment. Yet the scale of price pressures is expected to force the BCCh into rate hikes, potentially lifting rates to 5.00% despite the weak growth backdrop.
• In contrast, Brazil has benefited from relatively resilient financial markets and a stronger currency, allowing the BCB to continue its easing cycle, though at a slower and more cautious pace as 2026 inflation forecasts edge higher (4.6% from 3.9% previously) and policymakers grow wary of external risks.
• That said, there are considerable risks to Brazil’s forecasts, given the uncertain global geopolitical environment and the contingency of the view on a Flávio Bolsonaro election win in October. The baseline assumes the majority of easing takes place after the election; if the opposite outcome materialises, there is likely to be a symmetric risk of hikes (particularly in the event of global energy prices remaining elevated).
• For Chile, should the war continue for longer than expected, there are both upside risks to the inflation and interest rate forecasts, given the strong pass-through of inflation into the domestic economy and the risk of destabilised inflation expectations. However, if the US and Iran can reach an accord leading to normalising prices, the BCCh could opt instead to view the external price shock as transitory, which presents little threat to the two-year inflation outlook, leading them to hold the rate at 4.50% through the end of the year.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Oil prices jumped about 6% on Monday, May 4, 2026, as Iran stepped up attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and ships in the Middle East Gulf, with Brent rising 5.8% to $114.44 per barrel and WTI up 4.4% to $106.42.
• Iran hit several ships in the Strait of Hormuz and set a UAE oil port ablaze, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to use the U.S. Navy to free up shipping triggered the war’s biggest escalation since a ceasefire was declared in early April. Following the reported drone and missile attacks on the UAE by Iran, the UAE said it marked a serious escalation, and it reserved the right to respond.
• As part of its efforts to counter the escalation and maintain shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military said it destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted cruise missiles and drones fired by Tehran.
• Notwithstanding, Trump has struggled to find a solution to the disruption of international energy supplies caused by Iran's blockade ​of the strait, which carried a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) before the war. Without a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could remain above $100, and U.S. gasoline prices could reach $5 a gallon by June, according to analysts. Notably, motorists in California are already paying $6 per gallon.
• In response to the energy crisis, the UAE energy minister, following the country’s exit from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) last week, said it would continue producing to meet global market demand without restrictions, while cooperating with other producers. Meanwhile, OPEC+ said it would raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June for seven members, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, told the European Union (EU) and German trade officials over the weekend that the U.S. will move ​forward with President Donald Trump's plan to raise EU car import tariffs to 25%.
• According to ‌a statement made by Greer on Monday, May 4, 2026, to CNBC, the tariff should be considered ⁠as part of a larger negotiation or a permanent state. As of Monday, the new tariffs had not been officially ​adopted.
• Trump said on Friday, May 1, 2026, he would increase tariffs on cars from the European Union to 25% next week from the previously agreed 15%, saying the bloc had not complied with its trade deal with Washington. However, the European Commission ​rejected Trump's claim that Brussels was not complying with last summer's trade deal and noted that ​it would keep its options open to protect EU interests if Washington breached the terms of the agreement.
• Trump ‌fired off ⁠the tariff post amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and the EU over the war in Iran and European countries' refusal to send navies to open the Strait of Hormuz. The White House said Friday it plans to remove 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany after German Chancellor Friedrich ​Merz said the U.S. ​was being "humiliated" by ⁠Iran in talks to end the conflict in the Middle East.
• The Trump administration last year imposed a 25% tariff on global automotive imports under ​a national security trade law, but reached a separate deal with the ​EU in ⁠August 2025 to lower those duties to a net 15%, inclusive of prior duties.
• Shares in German carmakers slid on Monday, 4 May 2026, following Trump's decision to hike U.S. tariffs on imported European cars to 25% from the 15% levy ⁠previously agreed, dealing a fresh blow to the already battered sector.

(Source: Reuters)

• The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rate on hold Thursday, April 30, 2026, as it warned that risks to growth and inflation had “intensified” as a result of the war in the Middle East. The central bank for the 21 countries that use the euro left its benchmark deposit rate at 2.0%, where it has been since June last year.
• In a statement, the bank said that while its previous assessment of the inflation outlook was largely unchanged, “the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified.” It said its governing council remained committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term.
• Acknowledging that the war in the Middle East had led to a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation and weighing on economic sentiment, the ECB noted that “the implications of the war for medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock and the scale of its indirect and second-round effects.”
• “The longer the war continues, and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy,” the bank stressed. The ECB noted that it would closely monitor the situation and take a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining its monetary policy stance. Policymakers would not pre-commit to a particular rate path, it emphasised.
• The ECB’s decision came after flash data out Thursday showed inflation in the euro zone jumped to 3% in April, driven largely by a rise in energy costs in the region. Growth slowed in the first quarter, expanding by a meager 0.1%.

(Sources: CNBC & Euractiv)

• The Bank of England (BOE) kept interest ​rates on hold on Thursday, April 30, 2026, and set out a range of possible economic impacts from the Iran war, the worst of which might entail "forceful" rate rises, while less damaging outcomes may not require any increase ‌at all. Facing deep uncertainty about the duration of the conflict and the damage it will wreak on Britain's economy, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep the BoE's benchmark Bank Rate at 3.75% as only Chief Economist, Huw Pill, sought a hike to 4%.
• The decision was in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists, but investors responded by scaling back their bets on BoE rate hikes this year. A day after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, and shortly before the European Central Bank stayed ​on hold too, the MPC said it would monitor the Middle East closely.
• Faced with such deep uncertainty over the war, the BoE opted not to publish a central economic forecast. Instead, it produced three scenarios based on energy prices and different degrees of second-round effects. Britain is seen as highly vulnerable to the jump in energy prices due to its heavy use of natural gas.
• Under the most damaging Scenario C, where oil prices peak at $127 a barrel and remain above $100 until mid-2028, inflation could peak at 6.2% in early 2027. This is almost double its most recent reading, and projections indicate that prices would stay above the BoE's 2% target for the coming three years, based on current market expectations for rates. If that risk materialised, it was "likely to warrant a forceful tightening in monetary policy," the BoE ​said.
• However, Scenarios A and B - which show oil ​prices falling to around $80 a barrel within a few ⁠months - would require a "less restrictive policy stance" with the rise in market-based interest rates since the start of the war helping to offset inflation pressure. Governor Andrew Bailey thought the most likely outcome was Scenario B, under which inflation peaks at a little over 3.5% at the end of 2026 before falling back to close to 2%.
• Nevertheless, the BoE expressed that some MPC members "might prefer to act early," while others could wait for more evidence of inflation getting ​stuck too high. While there was a risk of "material second-round effects" from the energy price shock - such as demands for higher pay or companies raising prices rather than absorbing higher costs - the jobs market was weakening, and a rise in financial market borrowing costs would limit inflation.

(Source: Reuters)