• South America’s upcoming oil developments, including several in Guyana, are gaining increased importance due to recent developments in the Middle East, Norway-based Rystad Energy said in an April 21 analysis.
• “The Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices, it has exposed how dangerously concentrated global supply chains are around the Strait of Hormuz. South America is now positioned as the world’s most consequential source of incremental supply. The region offers scale, geologic quality and relative political stability at exactly the moment that the world is shopping for alternatives,” said Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas Research.
• Guyana’s next set of offshore projects awaiting approval are set to unlock a key share of new global oil supply, as markets respond to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Rystad Energy. Across the region, offshore developments in Guyana, Brazil and Suriname were identified as the most immediate sources of new supply.
• The firm said a sustained US$100-per-barrel oil price could unlock up to 2.1 million barrels per day (b/d) of additional crude supply across South America by the mid-2030s, with a large portion tied to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision.
• Rystad Energy said that if these unsanctioned projects are fast-tracked, they could deliver more than one million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) over the next decade, supported by about US$33.0Bn in greenfield investment through 2035.
• It was noted that the largest gains will come from earlier approvals of new projects, particularly those still awaiting sanction in Guyana’s development queue. The firm also identified limited global shipyard capacity for floating production, storage and offloading vessels as a key constraint that could slow the pace at which new projects are brought online.

(Source: OIL Now)

• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government is assessing new investments and trade deals with Cuba after Havana opened its economy to more private sector participation, potentially allowing Mexican private and mixed-capital firms to expand on the island.
• Mexico is evaluating whether private companies can be involved in reselling Pemex crude to Cuba, framing fuel supply as part of its humanitarian cooperation with the island amid Cuba's prolonged economic and energy crisis.
• Bilateral trade remains modest despite close political ties. In 2025, Mexico exported $758Mn to Cuba (mostly oil and minerals) against just $14Mn in imports.
• Cuba's March structural reform introduces an "investor migration status" letting Cubans abroad invest in private businesses and strategic sectors without losing residency, and President Díaz-Canel has called for immediate changes to the economic model to give private firms and joint ventures a larger role.
• The opening is still partial and tightly regulated, with analysts pointing to continued state controls, chronic foreign currency shortages, and a fragile power grid as lingering drags on Cuba's outlook.
• As at early 2026, the U.S. threat to impose tariffs on countries trading with Cuba, particularly oil suppliers, acts as an economic blockade, pressuring nations like Mexico, Russia, and Venezuela to cease energy shipments. This forces other countries to choose between trading with Cuba or facing severe U.S. trade penalties, creating diplomatic friction, threatening regional energy security, and risking a humanitarian crisis in Cuba

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• The United Kingdom inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 (from 3.0% in February 2026), marking the first clear pass-through of the Iran war into consumer prices, with the Bank of England warning this could reignite the country’s persistently high inflation problem.
• The increase was driven largely by energy, with motor fuel prices jumping 8.7% month-on-month, the largest rise since mid-2022. Factory cost pressures intensified, as producer input price inflation surged 4.4% in March, pointing to further pipeline inflation that could feed into consumer prices in the coming months.
• Underlying price pressures were mixed, with services inflation rising unexpectedly to 4.5%, although partly driven by temporary factors such as air fares, while core inflation edged lower to 3.1%, suggesting limited broad-based pass-through so far.
• Despite the uptick in inflation, economists expect the Bank of England to hold interest rates at its upcoming meeting, as policymakers assess whether higher energy prices will translate into sustained wage growth, particularly given a softening labour market that may dampen second-round effects.
• The outlook underscores rising stagflation risks, with policymakers facing a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and supporting growth, as the energy shock adds to existing economic weakness and raises the likelihood of a slowdown in the second half of the year.
• Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain elevated and potentially rise further toward 3.5% by mid-2026, with the IMF projecting a peak near 4%, highlighting the persistence of energy-driven price pressures and the uncertainty around the inflation trajectory.

(Source: Reuters)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• The United Kingdom inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 (from 3.0% in February 2026), marking the first clear pass-through of the Iran war into consumer prices, with the Bank of England warning this could reignite the country’s persistently high inflation problem.
• The increase was driven largely by energy, with motor fuel prices jumping 8.7% month-on-month, the largest rise since mid-2022. Factory cost pressures intensified, as producer input price inflation surged 4.4% in March, pointing to further pipeline inflation that could feed into consumer prices in the coming months.
• Underlying price pressures were mixed, with services inflation rising unexpectedly to 4.5%, although partly driven by temporary factors such as air fares, while core inflation edged lower to 3.1%, suggesting limited broad-based pass-through so far.
• Despite the uptick in inflation, economists expect the Bank of England to hold interest rates at its upcoming meeting, as policymakers assess whether higher energy prices will translate into sustained wage growth, particularly given a softening labour market that may dampen second-round effects.
• The outlook underscores rising stagflation risks, with policymakers facing a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and supporting growth, as the energy shock adds to existing economic weakness and raises the likelihood of a slowdown in the second half of the year.
• Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain elevated and potentially rise further toward 3.5% by mid-2026, with the IMF projecting a peak near 4%, highlighting the persistence of energy-driven price pressures and the uncertainty around the inflation trajectory.

(Source: Reuters)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the Issuer/Corporate credit ratings of CariA- and CariA (Foreign and Local Currency Rating) on the regional rating scale, and jmAA+ on the Jamaica national scale to the Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ). The ratings include a single notch up for the likelihood of support, if needed, from the Government of Jamaica (GOJ).
• The regional-scale foreign and local currency ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of PAJ, relative to peers in the Caribbean, is good, while the national scale ratings indicate that PAJ’s creditworthiness, relative to peers in Jamaica, is high.
• CariCRIS also assigned a stable outlook to the ratings, reflecting the high likelihood that PAJ will maintain its profitability and credit metrics over the next 12–15 months. This is supported by solid cargo operations, institutional stability from PAJ’s legislative mandate, and ongoing infrastructure modernisation across the cargo, cruise, and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) business lines.
• A gradual improvement in global economic activity, with strengthening global cargo and cruise market conditions, is expected to sustain revenue generation and operating performance. Consequently, PAJ is projected to maintain sound financial metrics, stable cash flow generation, strong capitalisation, and adequate debt service capacity over the next 12 – 15 months.
• Changes in operating and financial fundamentals, as well as external conditions, are factors that could lead to a rating change on the PAJ. If Jamaica’s credit rating improves over the next 12–15 months or if PAJ demonstrates stronger performance with increased revenue or profitability, sustaining a Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) above 2x over the next two years, PAJ could be upgraded.  However, if the agency experiences adverse changes to concession agreements that reduce guaranteed revenues, or from weakening financial metrics, including DSCR falling to 1.5x or below or Return on Assets (ROA) to 3.3% or below for two consecutive years, it could be downgraded.
• Notably, the recent rating affirmation disclosed that the PAJ has shelved the planned listing of its BPO assets on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) due to prevailing market conditions. The PAJ will instead concentrate its efforts on the Caymanas Special Economic Zone (SEZ), on which it intends to spend $8.88Bn in the current March 2027 fiscal year.
• As early as 2021, the PAJ had indicated plans to list an entity which would manage its  BPO real estate assets totalling 852,276 square feet. These assets were situated at SEZs in Montego Bay and the Portmore Informatics Park. The privatisation effort was being handled by the Development Bank of Jamaica, which handles public-private partnership (PPP) transactions. The monetisation of these assets was expected to support investments into other critical projects.

(Sources: CariCRIS & Jamaica Observer)

• Guyana has opened up an estimated US$340Mn in gas-based investment opportunities linked to the Wales Gas-to-Energy project, with the government noting that local investors will be prioritised.
• According to the Department of Public Information (DPI), the Office of the Prime Minister invited expressions of interest for two projects to be located near the Wales Gas-to-Energy 300 megawatts (MW) power plant and associated natural gas liquids (NGL) separation plant on the West Bank of Demerara.
• The ventures include the Guyana Ammonia and Urea Plant Inc. (GAUP), estimated at US$300Mn, and the Guyana Gas Bottling and Logistics Company (GGBLC), valued at about US$40Mn. Both proposed projects were previously advertised and received submissions. The National Procurement and Tender Administration Board (NPTAB) reported that for both the GAUP and GGBLC, 10 groups submitted proposals, with Lindsayca, the company constructing the Gas-to-Energy plants at Wales, vying for both.
• The government said it is targeting investments of up to US$5 million per investor for the GAUP project and up to US$1Mn per investor for the GGBLC, though interested parties may propose higher amounts. Both projects are expected to operate as private companies and will offer a government-guaranteed annual return of 10%.
• DPI said Guyanese investors, including those in the diaspora, will be given priority as part of efforts to broaden local participation in the country’s emerging gas-based industries.
• The projects form part of Guyana’s wider strategy to monetize offshore natural gas resources by developing downstream industries, including fertilizer production and gas distribution, aimed at supporting agriculture, energy access and industrial growth.
• The Gas-to-Energy plants are expected to be completed by the end of 2026, the government has said. First gas through a pipeline installed by ExxonMobil in 2024 is expected to follow after completion, as the government moves to reduce emissions associated with power generation and slash electricity rates. 

(Source: OilNow)