• Brazil's central government reported a sharp deterioration of its budget in February. Treasury data showed that increased revenues were unable to offset the negative impacts of a significant growth in expenses.
• The central government's primary budget deficit reached 58.4 billion reais ($11.7Bn) in February, a 37.7% surge in real terms over the same month a year ago. Total spending expanded by 27.4% over February 2023, to 190.9Bn reais, mainly influenced by 30.1 billion reais in court-ordered debt payments, said the Treasury.
• Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron said that court-ordered debts are typically paid in May or June, and the decision to anticipate them distorted the comparison with total expenditures from February last year.
• Meanwhile, net revenue increased by 23.4% from the same month a year ago, to 132.5 billion reais. The government had already said that tax revenue for February had been a record for the month, helped by the taxation of closed-end funds and the reinstatement of federal taxes on fuels.
• The government is relying on a revenue boost to erase the primary deficit this year, a goal that is still viewed with skepticism by the market. Last week, the Planning and Finance ministries worsened their projection for public accounts, but still kept it in line with the target of a primary deficit equivalent to 0% of gross domestic product (GDP).
• The market, in turn estimates that the deficit will reach 0.75% of GDP, according to a central bank weekly survey. Year-to-date, the central government recorded a primary surplus of 20.9Bn reais, smaller than the 38.3 billion reais surplus from a year ago, fundamentally affected by higher spending.
• By mid-April, the government is expected to submit to Congress the fiscal target for next year, after indicating it would pursue a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2025 and 1% of GDP in 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, who last week dropped her call for increases in borrowing costs, said on Tuesday she thought markets were betting on too many interest rate cuts by the British central bank.
• "I think they're pricing in too many cuts, that would be my personal view," Mann told Bloomberg TV, referring to financial markets, which are almost fully predicting three quarter-point reductions in rates by the BoE this year.
• She further stated that there has been a substantial easing even since the vote last week and that perhaps markets are a bit too complacent about how long they think the BoE, overall the MPC, will hold rates.
• Last week, she joined the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) members who kept the Bank Rate at 5.25%, its highest since 2008. She had previously voted for an increase to 5.5%.
• However, Mann said she changed her mind due to consumers’ reluctance to pay higher prices, especially for services such as hospitality and travel, and because firms were cutting hours of workers at a time when the government's cuts to social security rates would add to the number of workers in the labour market.
• Finally, she opined that pricing in financial markets was helping the BoE do its work for it. "In some sense, I don't have to cut because the market already is, in terms of the implications of you know the market curve and mortgage rates, for example," she said. "Those are the rates that are faced by borrowers. Bank Rate is not the rates that borrowers face."

(Source: Reuters)

• As Europe seeks to hold its ground against economic rivals, politicians think they have a secret weapon: the untapped savings of its citizens.
• From Italy selling government bonds to households, to French talk of a pan-European savings product or Britain offering tax breaks for investment in UK shares, governments across Europe are seeking ways to mobilise household wealth. All these plans share an underlying thinking: Europe is sitting on plenty of cash that could be channelled towards its goals, from the green transition to beefing up militaries.
• Politicians hope private money invested in local stocks or government debt can help close the growth and productivity gap with the United States and China. However, critics say such schemes risk disappointing savers, while failing to address deep-rooted shortcomings in the European economic model that they see as dissuading investment.
• European governments, led by figures like French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, are exploring various strategies to mobilize idle savings for economic growth, including proposals for pan-European savings products and directing savings towards domestic defense companies. However, critics argue that the concept of "dormant money" in bank accounts is flawed, pointing out that banks can readily deploy deposits for loans.
• Despite efforts to encourage investment, data suggests that Italians investing in government-sponsored funds targeting local small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMSEs) have underperformed global stocks significantly over the past five years. Some economists believe that the real issue hindering investment in Europe is not funding availability but rather meager growth prospects compared to other regions like the United States.

(Source: Reuters)

• Wigton Windfarm Limited (WIG) has advised that Mr. Earlington Barrett, Managing Director of WIG, will be demitting office effective March 31, 2024. The process of recruiting a new Managing Director is underway.
•  Interim measures for the continued leadership and operational oversight of the business have been implemented, and Miss Michelle Chin Lenn, the current Head of Energy of WIG, will serve as Acting Managing Director until the aforementioned recruitment process is completed.
• Wigton’s stock price has increased by 53.4% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Monday’s trading session at $1.12 and trades at a P/E of 38.6x which is above the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector Average of 16.1x.

 (Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Acting Prime Minister Chester Cooper has urged the Grand Bahamian business community to “get in the game” and not let economic opportunities pass them by, claiming that investor confidence in Grand Bahama has never been higher.
• Speaking at the Grand Bahama Chamber of Commerce’s (GBCC) annual installation of officer and directors banquet on Saturday, Cooper highlighted Carnival Cruise Line’s Celebration Key project, a $600Mn investment set to be the largest cruise project globally.
• “The projections are staggering; visitor arrivals in Grand Bahama are expected to exceed 1.4Mn by the end of 2025, reaching up to 4Mn annually by 2027. This not only represents a significant boost in tourism but also heralds a new era of job creation, revenue generation, and overall economic impact for our island. The investments don’t end there, and they are real. Real in tourism, but also real in the maritime and industrial sectors. Additionally, investor confidence in Grand Bahama has never been higher.”
• He urged the GBCC and its members to “engage, get in the game, and mobilize more organic, domestic investment.”
• “The revival of Grand Bahama’s economy must be a concerted effort, one that requires the hands-on engagement of the entire business community, in partnership with the government, GBPA, the Chamber, and all local stakeholders. Together, we have the power to encourage organic growth through Domestic Investments, drive sustainable economic growth to create opportunities for local entrepreneurship, and ensure that the benefits of the economic renaissance are widely shared and deeply rooted in the fabric of this community,” said Cooper.
• Finally, Cooper emphasised that the government fully expects Grand Bahama businesses to have the first crack at opportunities that become available and has also suggested that the cruise lines visiting Bahamian ports ought to temper the language in their onboard advisories.

(Source: Eye Witness News)

• In a bid to bolster its prominence in the cruise and yachting sector, Antigua and Barbuda has set sights on expanding its capacity. The decision, endorsed by the government last Wednesday, entails the development of the northern precinct of Rat Island, earmarked as an extension of the existing cruise port.
• Although the precise financial outlay for this endeavor remains undisclosed, a note emanating from the cabinet meeting underscored the anticipation of a substantial return on investment, likely to substantiate the expenditure. Once realised, the extended port is poised to accommodate the berthing needs of yachts and petite cruise vessels, augmenting the region’s allure for maritime enthusiasts.
• Information Minister Melford Nicholas emphasised the symbiotic relationship between infrastructure development and economic prosperity, envisioning a surge in entrepreneurial endeavors catering to both residents and tourists.
• Looking beyond the maritime domain, the government unveiled plans to undertake dredging operations in Crabbs and the northern corridor. This strategic initiative aims to accommodate larger vessels ferrying essential construction materials, particularly cement, to satiate the burgeoning demands of the construction sector.

(Source: Caribbean News Weekly)

• Central banks are carefully navigating a shift from a prolonged period of interest rate hikes to a strategy of gradual decreases in borrowing costs. This cautious approach reflects concerns about rekindling inflation amid ultra-low unemployment rates.
• Following synchronized rate hikes starting in late 2021, major economies are expected to see inflation stabilize around target levels this year. This stabilisation provides a backdrop for central banks to begin easing monetary policy.
• The Swiss National Bank's recent surprise rate cut signifies the beginning of significant policy easing, with expectations that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England will follow suit with further cuts.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve faces a unique situation, given the robust performance of the U.S. economy. Factors such as the upcoming election and growing concerns about inequality complicate the Fed's decision-making process.
• Europe confronts economic challenges, including Germany's recession and sluggish growth in the UK. Amidst these challenges, uncertainty looms over when rate cuts will end, especially as structural changes impact the natural rate of interest.
• Overall, the world's biggest central banks are on the starting line of reversing a record string of interest rate hikes, but the way down for borrowing costs will look very different from the way up. There will be no floodgates or fireworks. Instead, banks on opposite sides of the Atlantic are likely to move in the smallest increments with periodic pauses, fearing that ultra-low unemployment could rekindle inflation rates still above their targets.

(Source: Reuters)

• The slowdown in inflation for February suggests a possible shift in the Bank of England's monetary policy. A decrease in inflation often prompts central banks to consider lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity. This news may indicate a forthcoming adjustment in the Bank's strategy to support economic growth.
• The decrease in the annual increase of consumer prices from January to February indicates a slight easing of inflationary pressures. This moderation could alleviate some concerns about the cost of living for households and may provide relief for consumers facing higher prices across various sectors.
• While investors anticipate potential interest rate cuts in the future, they also expect the Bank of England to maintain its current interest rate stance for the time being. This suggests a cautious approach by the central bank, weighing economic indicators and market conditions before implementing any changes to monetary policy.
• Despite the slight slowdown in inflation, the UK continues to grapple with relatively high inflation compared to other advanced economies in the G7. This persistent high inflation rate underscores ongoing challenges in managing price stability and could influence the Bank of England's policy decisions moving forward.
• The finance minister's suggestion that the Bank of England might contemplate lowering interest rates as inflation approaches its target reflects ongoing discussions about appropriate monetary policy measures. Lowering interest rates could help support economic recovery and bring inflation closer to the central bank's target level.
• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's optimism about the economy despite economic challenges signals confidence in the government's handling of economic affairs. His call for voter support for the Conservative Party underscores the political significance of economic performance and suggests an attempt to capitalize on positive economic indicators for electoral gain.

(Source: Reuters)

• During his contribution to the 2024/25 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on March 21, Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness announced that the toll-free period for use of the May Pen to Williamsfield leg of the Southern Coastal Highway Improvement Project (SCHIP) will be extended to July 1, 2024.
• The extension is being granted to facilitate the conclusion of negotiations with TransJamaican Highway Limited (TJH), which operates the East-West Highway from Caymanas to May Pen, under a Concession Agreement.
• In the meantime, the Prime Minister reminded that the Government intends to move further westward from Williamsfield in Manchester to Hodges in St. Elizabeth. The extension will include a Northern Mandeville Bypass, a Spur Tree Bypass, a Southfield Bypass, and a Black River Bypass.
• TJH has the Right of First Refusal to operate the new May Pen to Williamsfield Highway and has exercised its right under the Concession Agreement by making an offer to the Government of Jamaica.

 (Source: JIS)

• Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Hon. Floyd Green, has reiterated his continued support for implementing the Blue Transformation approach in the Region.
• Blue Transformation is an approach aimed at redefining the region’s relationship with aquatic foods and proposes a vision of sustainable aquaculture production, effective fisheries management, and improved value chains.
• Minister Green, speaking on March 19 at the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) four-day regional conference in Guyana, said priority must be given to diversifying the livelihoods of small-scale fishers and fish farmers.
• The Minister highlighted that the country is implementing a fisheries development programme with two components – promoting community-based climate resilience and modernising licensing and registration systems.
• “As such, we are using the technology to develop what we call Irie Fins, a Jamaican fisheries aquaculture information system where our fishers, fish farmers, and vessels can register using their mobile devices,” he added. He further also highlighted strategies being used in Jamaica to increase yields in aquaculture and encourage diversity among artisanal fishers.

 (Source: JIS)