• When Beryl lashed Barbados, the island's fishing fleet was devastated in a matter of hours. About 75.0% of the active fleet was damaged, with 88 boats destroyed. Six months after the storm, there are signs of calmer waters.
• However, Barbadians are acutely aware that climate change means more active and powerful Atlantic hurricane seasons - and it may be just another year or two before the fishing industry is struck again. Beryl, for example, was the earliest-forming Category 5 storm on record.
• Few understand the extent of the problem better than the island's Chief Fisheries Officer, Dr Shelly Ann Cox. "Our captains have been reporting that sea conditions have changed," she explains. "Higher swells, sea surface temperatures are much warmer and they're having difficulty getting flying fish now at the beginning of our pelagic season."
• The effects are also being felt in the tourism industry, he says, with hotels and restaurants struggling to find enough fish to meet demand each month. For Dr Shelly Ann Cox, public education is key, and she says the message is getting through.
• For the island's young people, their very futures are at stake. Rising sea levels now pose an existential threat to the small islands of the Caribbean. It is a point on which the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, has become a global advocate for change. She urged greater action over an impending climate catastrophe in her speech at COP29 and called for economic compensation from the world's industrialised nations.

(Source: BBC News)

• China’s factory activity expanded at a slower pace in December, official data showed on Tuesday, despite recent stimulus measures and in the face of increasing trade risks.
• The Purchasing Managers’ Index, based on a survey of factory managers, slipped to 50.1 in December from 50.3 the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.
• It was the third straight monthly reading above 50, a level that indicates an expansion of manufacturing activity. The slowdown in factory activity was due to a “decline in the output component,” according to a note by Capital Economics’ Gabriel Ng.
• Overall, new orders rose to an eight-month high, while the export order index rose to the highest level in four months, likely helped by U.S. importers rushing to beat higher tariffs that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump may impose on Chinese goods, Ng said.
• Trump has pledged to impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, raising trade risks for China, the world’s largest exporter of goods. China is already grappling with a lagging economy, weighed down by reduced consumption and a real estate crisis.
• Last week, the World Bank raised forecasts for China’s economic growth to 4.9% but warned that reduced confidence among households and businesses, an aging population, low consumption, and high debt will continue to weigh on China’s future growth.

(Source: AP News)

• Ukraine has made good on its promise to halt the transport of Russian gas to Europe through its territory after a key deal with Moscow expired on Wednesday. Ukraine’s refusal to renew the transit deal was an expected but symbolic move after nearly three years of its full-scale war with Russia and comes after Europe has already drastically cut Moscow’s share of its gas imports. Ukraine’s energy ministry said it ended the deal “in the interests of national security.”
• However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the move “one of Moscow’s greatest defeats. He accused Moscow of “turning energy into a weapon and engaging in cynical energy blackmail against its partners but expressed hope that the United States would increase its supply of gas to Europe.
• Last year, Kremlin-owned gas giant Gazprom, which signed the transit deal with Ukraine’s Naftogaz in 2019, recorded a $6.9Bn loss, its first in more than 20 years, due to diminished sales to Europe. Ukraine now faces the loss of some $800Mn a year in transit fees from Russia, while Gazprom will lose close to $5 billion in gas sales.
• Henning Gloystein, head of Energy, Climate & Resources at Eurasia Group, said the deal’s end came as “no surprise” but expects it to trigger a jump in spot gas prices when markets reopen on Thursday. However, a major price spike as seen during the previous Russian supply cuts is unlikely as EU importers have long prepared for this scenario. Further, most of Europe has had a mild start to winter.
• Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was the European Union’s biggest supplier of natural gas. The bloc has whittled Russia’s share of its pipeline gas imports down from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023, according to the European Council.
• To fill the gap, Europe has imported vast quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – a chilled, liquid form of natural gas that can be transported via sea tankers – from the United States and other countries, as well as pipeline gas from Norway. The EU has also ramped up imports of Russian LNG to help heat its homes and power its factories but faces a self-imposed deadline of 2027 and plans to break its dependence on all Russian fossil fuels.

(Source: CNN Business)

• Jamaica is looking to engage with major global airlines to increase airlift to the island according to Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett. Among the airlines being engaged are Emirates and Saudi Airlines.
• The move is aimed at expanding Jamaica’s reach into new markets. It provides the country with an opportunity to negotiate with the major global airlines, as it represents the next significant frontier for local tourism.
• Minister Bartlett, who was addressing the recent Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) appreciation breakfast for staff at the Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA) in Kingston, said emphasis is also being placed on boosting regional connectivity pointing to the increasing number of carriers operating within the region, including Bahamasair, Caribbean Airways and Cayman Airways.
• Turning to the winter tourist season, which started on December 15, Minister Bartlett said that the preliminary figures indicate that “this is going to be the best winter season on record.” He noted that the destination has secured 178,000 new seats this winter, representing an increase from every major gateway coming to Jamaica.
• This surge is supported by significant growth from key markets such as the United States – 74,000 additional seats, Canada – 78,000 additional seats (a 35 per cent increase over last season), United Kingdom – 338 additional seats, and the Caribbean – more than 1,000 additional seats.
• Jamaica is currently witnessing a boom in high-end tourism, with 18 private jets arriving in Montego Bay on just one day last week, as reported by Delano Seiveright, Senior Advisor and Strategist in the Ministry of Tourism.

(Sources: JIS & Caribbean National Weekly)

• In a move aimed at strengthening international partnerships, the Governments of Jamaica and the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire have formally established diplomatic relations during a signing ceremony in New York recently.
• The Joint Communiqué establishing diplomatic relations was signed on December 16, at the Permanent Mission of Côte d’Ivoire to the United Nations (UN) by Ambassador Brian Wallace, Permanent Representative of Jamaica to the UN, and Ambassador Tiémoko Moriko, Permanent Representative of Côte d’Ivoire to the UN.
• Both Jamaica and Côte d’Ivoire will seek to leverage this partnership to promote economic diplomacy, through trade and investment, tourism, cultural exchange, as well as other mutually beneficial areas to advance South-South cooperation.
• Earlier this year, Senator the Honourable Kamina Johnson Smith, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, signed a similar Communiqué in New York, alongside her Tunisian counterpart. His Excellency Mohamed Ali Nafti, establishing diplomatic relations between Jamaica and the Republic of Tunisia.
• Since independence, these two recent milestones have brought the total number of countries with which Jamaica has formalised diplomatic ties to 176.

(Source: JIS)

• The Grantley Adams International Airport (GAIA) achieved a historic milestone on December 21, with 54 flights arriving in a single day, bringing approximately 8,000 passengers to Barbados, including 2,200 air-to-sea transfers and 5,800 stay-over visitors, further boosting the island’s economy.
• Minister of Tourism Ian Gooding-Edghill highlighted the success of the Ministry’s and Barbados Tourism Marketing Inc.’s (BTMI) airlift strategy, noting the significant increase in visitor arrivals compared to 2019.
• The increased number of airlifts was evident in visitor arrival figures compared to 2019. “Another intriguing fact is that the Grantley Adams International Airport is expected to handle 2.35 million passengers by the end of this year.
• According to Mr. Gooding-Edghill, this significantly increased from the 2.29Mn passengers reported in 2019, signaling a robust resurgence in Barbados’ tourism sector. The minister also stated that the ministry plans to increase airlifts to the island from the United States and Europe.
• The surge in passenger traffic underscores the island’s booming tourism industry, which continues to rebound with vigor. Barbados’ strategic focus on attracting international visitors is paying dividends, as evidenced by the growth in arrivals, the airport’s ability to manage such high volumes efficiently and the island’s growing appeal as a premier travel destination.
• GAIA’s CEO, Hadley Bourne, emphasised enhancements like the newly operational Concorde Experience, which alleviates terminal congestion and improves customer experience, as "reinforcing Barbados’ reputation as a premier tourism destination."

(Sources: Caribbean News Now and The New York Carib News)

• Trinidad and Tobago declared a state of emergency as gang violence in the Caribbean nation continues to escalate. President Christine Carla Kangaloo issued the declaration on the advice of Prime Minister Keith Rowley, who had been under growing pressure to take action over worsening crime figures.
• The Twin Island Republic has one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a record murder tally of more than 620 so far this year in a population of 1.5 million people.
• Organised crime is responsible for the majority of the murders, many of them linked to the international drug trade. According to the US State Department, the country's close proximity to Venezuela, porous borders, and direct transportation routes to Europe and North America make it "a prime location for narcotics trans-shipment".
• It is unclear how the state of emergency will affect Trinidad's world-renowned Carnival, which is set to culminate in a massive street parade on the Monday and Tuesday before Ash Wednesday in early March.
• The event is a major tourist attraction, which brings in tens of thousands of visitors from overseas, but heightened security measures could put a damper on the festivities.
• The move comes as Trinidad and Tobago gears up for a general election, which must be held by August 2025. Rowley's governing People's National Movement party, which has been in power since September 2015, faces a strong challenge from the opposition United National Congress, led by former Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar.

(Source: BBC News)

• The U.S. Treasury Department may need to take "extraordinary measures" as early as Jan. 14 to prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers.
• U.S. debt is expected to decrease by about $54Bn on Jan. 2 "due to a scheduled redemption of nonmarketable securities held by a federal trust fund associated with Medicare payments," she added. She went on to explain that "Treasury currently expects to reach the new limit between January 14 and January 23, at which time it will be necessary for Treasury to start taking extraordinary measures."
• Under a 2023 budget deal, Congress suspended the debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025. The U.S. Treasury will be able to pay its bills for several more months, but Congress will have to address the issue at some point next year.
• Failure to act could prevent the Treasury from paying its debts. A U.S. debt default would likely have severe economic consequences. Notably, if the government hits the debt ceiling limit and the U.S. Treasury does not have the ability to pay its obligations, the negative economic effects would quickly mount and risk triggering a deep recession and financial market catastrophe.
• Not only would this hinder eco-nomic activities, but it would also hurt bondholders. That is, by reaching the limit and failing to pay interest payment to bondholders, the U.S. would be in default, lowering its credit rating and increasing the cost of its debt. Such a scenario would be economically devastating and could plunge the world into a financial crisis as the U.S. government becomes a riskier borrower.
• A debt limit is a cap set by Congress on how much money the U.S. government can borrow. Because the government spends more money than it collects in tax revenue, lawmakers need to periodically tackle the issue - a politically difficult task, as many are reluctant to vote for more debt.

(Sources: Reuters and NCBCM)

• Canada's new finance minister Dominic LeBlanc and Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly met aides to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in Florida on Friday to discuss the risks of imposing new trade tariffs, the Canadian government said.
• Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from Canada when he takes office in January unless the country reduces the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the United States.
• LeBlanc's office said in a statement after the meeting that it had a "positive, productive" engagement with Trump's pick for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, and the president-elect's pick for Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum.
• The meeting focused on Canada's efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration, and the ministers outlined efforts taken by Canada in that direction while agreeing to continue further talks in the coming weeks, the Canadian statement on Friday added.
• Earlier this month, the Canadian government pledged to invest C$1.3Bn ($902.34Mn) toward border security over six years under a plan that would focus on surveillance, intelligence and technology.

(Source: Reuters)

• CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned issue credit ratings of the J$5.8Bn bond issue of Wigton Energy Limited (Wigton) to CariBBB+ (Local Currency Rating) on the regional rating scale and jmA (Local Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale.
• The ratings signify that on the national scale, the bond’s creditworthiness is considered good compared to other obligations in Jamaica and adequate on the regional scale, relative to other obligations in the Caribbean.
• Additionally, CariCRIS has maintained a stable outlook on the ratings. This stable outlook is predicated on the high likelihood that revenues and profits will moderate over the next twelve (12) to fifteen (15) months. It also incorporates expectations that Wigton will meet all debt service commitments in a timely manner. This is supported by steady revenue from Wigton's core wind energy operations, ongoing initiatives to diversify into solar energy generation, and the projected economic growth in Jamaica.
• CariCris also noted factors that could improve Wigton’s ratings and /or outlook to support a sustained 7% increase in operating profit for the next 2 years. These factors include: successful diversification into other renewable energy sources and geographical markets to boost revenue stability and/or expansion; improved operating efficiency and continued improvement in the Jamaican economy over the next year to support increased energy demand.
• Conversely, factors that could result in a ratings or outlook downgrade include: violation of debt covenants, failure to meet performance requirements under the Power Purchase Agreements, a 35% or greater increase in total operating expenses and/or a 15%  or more decrease in total operating revenue causing net profits to decline by over 80%.  These factors could limit Wigton’s ability to refinance or fully repay the bullet payment upon maturity.

Source: (JSE & CariCRIS)