• In a release on November 3, 2025, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) noted that it, alongside the Jamaica Bankers Association (JBA), is actively exploring initiatives to make banking services, including access to cash, available in the shortest possible time, particularly to the parishes that have been heavily impacted by Hurricane Melissa. 
• While banks have been able to resume operations in many areas, they are experiencing significant challenges reactivating their branch and automated teller machine (ATM) networks across the country. The challenges result from physical damage, the dislocation suffered by staff of the financial institutions, difficulty accessing roadways to towns where the branches and ATMs are located and the absence of electricity and telecommunication services in many communities. In addition, financial institutions face enormous challenges with security in the prevailing conditions.
• Critical payment and settlement systems, such as the BOJ-operated Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS), are operational. Furthermore, the central bank has suspended its fees charged to banks for the transfer and settlement of funds via the RTGS until further notice and expects that the banks will pass on the fee waiver benefit to their customers.
• The BOJ is also exploring with deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) what other temporary relief initiatives for bank customers are possible, particularly for those residing or operating businesses in areas that have been ravaged by the hurricane.

(Source: BOJ)

• Guyana entered the oil era in 2019 with US$1.8Bn in debt. Six years later, that figure skyrocketed to over US$7.7Bn, a fourfold explosion in borrowing under the current administration. At the end of 2024, Guyana’s debt stood at US$6Bn, but another US$1.7Bn was added to finance the 2025 Budget, as revealed by Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo.
• Since commencing oil production in December 2019, the country has earned just over US$7.8Bn in oil revenue, according to the latest Bank of Guyana (BoG) report on the Natural Resource Fund (NRF). Notably, almost US$4.6Bn has already been withdrawn by the government since the inception of the Fund.
• The country now finds itself paying high interest on the money it borrowed to finance its development agenda. However, the government believes in its ability to repay the debt in light of earnings from the oil sector. The Irfaan Ali-led administration has often touted the low GDP-to-debt service ratio, meaning that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) far outweighs the country’s annual repayment on loans.
• However, it should be noted that the country’s growth in GDP, while largely reflective of exports from the petroleum sector, is not the real value that the country receives from the sector. For instance, Guyana’s total crude oil exports amounted to US$17.9Bn in 2024, but Guyana only received US$2.6Bn in revenue from the sector during the same period.
• Stakeholders have frequently warned that while the country is “rich on paper”, it risks slipping into a dangerous debt crisis that many oil-producing states previously fell prey to. In 2019, the country’s debt was US$1.8Bn; according to Annual Reports from the Bank of Guyana (BoG), the nation’s debt grew by 46.7% in 2020 to US$2.6Bn. In 2021, the debt surged to US$3.1Bn, and in 2022, this trend continued with the total stock of debt climbing to US$3.7Bn.
• Experts and politicians have also warned the Guyana Government about excessive borrowing on the back of its oil revenues. Only recently, the United Kingdom increased its export credit financing limit for Guyana from £2.1Bn to £3.0Bn, a move billed by both London and Georgetown as a vote of confidence in Guyana’s accelerating economic progress. But amid the applause, commentators have sharply warned that Guyana must tread carefully. Failure to do so, they say, risks plunging the country into a debt trap, especially given the volatility of oil prices and the nation’s already heavy external and domestic obligations.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The Dominican Republic’s economy expanded by 2.2% between January and September 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Central Bank (BCRD). Governor Héctor Valdez Albizu attributed the growth to key sectors such as agriculture (3.9%), mining (3.7%), financial services (7.4%), and tourism (3.3%), which benefited from the arrival of 8.6 million visitors, a 2.7% increase year-over-year.
• Valdez Albizu highlighted that exports reached US$11.6Bn, up 11.7%, while tourism revenues totalled US$8.5Bn and remittances US$8.9Bn. Foreign direct investment stood at US$4 billion, led by projects in mining, energy, and communications.
• The Central Bank projects that the economy will gradually return to its potential growth in the coming quarters as global conditions stabilise and investment increases. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimate overall growth of 3.4% for the Dominican Republic by the end of 2025.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods.
• Accounts from manufacturers in the Institute for Supply Management survey on Monday painted a dire picture of the factory sector, which ironically President Donald Trump's sweeping duties are intended to stimulate. Economists have long argued it was impossible to restore manufacturing to its former glory because of structural issues, including worker shortages.
• Some makers of computer and electronic products agreed, and noted last month that "the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S." The ISM added to the gloom from other advanced nations' factory surveys.
• "Tariffs have been roiling the sector for much of this year," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. "The comments from individual respondents suggest that firms are exhausted by all of the back and forth on tariffs since the beginning of April and are suffering mightily as their customers have pulled back significantly."
• The ISM said its manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 last month from 49.1 in September. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy. The PMI remained above 42.3, a level that the ISM said over time was consistent with an expansion of the overall economy.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI rising to 49.5. Six industries, including primary metals, transportation equipment and fabricated metal products, reported growth. Among the 12 industries that contracted were textile mills, wood and chemical products, as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components, machinery, and computer and electronic products.
• Others said the Trump administration's trade war had hurt agricultural exports and impacted farmers' finances and their ability to buy new equipment.

(Source: Reuters)

• A rare 10-2 policy vote at the October 28–29 meeting to cut rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%–4.00% range revealed a deep split among U.S. Fed officials, with some pushing for tighter policy and others for looser conditions.
• Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged “strongly differing views” ahead of the December 9–10 meeting.
• Lisa Cook¹, a member of the Board of the Federal Reserve, warned that keeping rates too high could sharply weaken the labour market while lowering them too much could risk unanchoring inflation expectations. This pointed to the difficulty of achieving the Fed’s dual mandate of striking a balance between inflation and employment levels and emphasised the need for close monitoring of both inflation and employment data.
• Fed Governor Stephen Miran restated his case for deeper half-point rate cuts, arguing that strong stock and credit markets don’t necessarily signal loose policy and that maintaining high rates risks a downturn. He views inflation as less threatening than his peers.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, while supporting the last rate cut, said he remains undecided for December and is concerned about inflation remaining above target; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the October cut as “insurance”, but said further action will depend on signs of labour market deterioration.
• Both Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack opposed the October cut. Shmid argued that inflation should remain the priority and that high equity prices suggest policy is not restrictive. Similarly, Hammack echoed that sentiment, saying monetary policy is “barely restrictive, if at all,” underscoring the sharp internal divide within the Fed.

________________________

¹ Cook is locked in a legal battle with President Trump on mortgage fraud allegations.

(Source: Reuters)

• Hurricane Melissa, the most powerful Atlantic hurricane of the year, made landfall this week as a Category 5 storm in Jamaica. The strength of the storm means it will likely trigger a full payout from a catastrophe bond designed to provide funds to the island in the event of catastrophic weather events.
• The US$150.0Mn catastrophe bond, structured by Aon and the first of its kind in the Caribbean region, is intended to help rebuild after natural disasters by providing parametric coverage against losses from named storms. The policy took effect this year and lasts through 2027.
• To trigger the full payment, the storm has to meet a particular strength criteria. The central pressure of the storm must be at or below 900 millibars as its makes landfall and crosses the island nation. Early data from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Melissa’s pressure stayed below 900 millibars in several areas. Those readings are in the process of being verified by an independent calculation agent.
• “While the final numbers are still being verified, the early signs suggest the transaction is doing what it was designed to do: get critical funds to the country quickly after a major disaster,” Chris Lefferdink, Aon’s head of insurance-linked securities for North America, said in a statement.
• The review process typically takes 2 to 3 weeks, and the earliest possible payout to Jamaica could come in approximately 1 month, according to a spokesperson from Aon. Previous parametric transactions payouts have taken 3 months or more, but for this event Aon used an innovative data source to enable faster payments.
• The catastrophe bond was placed using the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (World Bank) “capital at risk” program, which is used to transfer the risks associated with natural catastrophes to the capital markets, allowing the country to access funds quickly after a major event.

(Source: CNBC)

• In the wake of Hurricane Melissa, Minister of Tourism Hon. Edmund Bartlett set a firm target for Jamaica’s tourism industry to be fully back in operation by December 15, 2025. To achieve this, the Ministry has activated a Hurricane Melissa Recovery Task Force and a companion Tourism Resilience Coordination Committee (“Tourism Cares”) to synchronise public and private sector action.
• Minister Bartlett stated that recovery cannot be left to chance, emphasising that marketing, communications, infrastructure repairs, aid, logistics and all enabling support will be aligned behind one objective, full industry operation by December 15. Progress will be tracked through the Ministry of Tourism with regular public updates for transparency and planning confidence.
• The Recovery Task Force is chaired by John Byles, Executive Deputy Chairman of Chukka Caribbean Adventures, with Minister Bartlett serving as Chairman Emeritus. Members include Hon. Tova Hamilton, Professor Lloyd Waller, Jennifer Griffith, Adam Stewart, Ian Dear, Donovan White, Jessica Shannon, Christopher Jarrett, Wayne Cummings, Wade Mars, Dr. Carey Wallace, Tanikie McClarthy Allen and Fiona Fennell.
• The Task Force will lead the sector’s operational restart, focusing on rapid assessments, product rehabilitation, and service readiness across resorts, attractions, airports, and ports, while “Tourism Cares” will organize and route financial and in-kind assistance through supportjamaica.gov.jm to workers, MSMEs, and communities. Both committees will coordinate with the Global Tourism Resilience and Crisis Management Centre (GTRCMC) to integrate lessons from Jamaica’s post-COVID-19 recovery, reinforcing the industry’s resilience and commitment to recovery through empathy, compassion, and innovation.

(Source: JIS)

• Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T) support for and cooperation with the United States (US) military operations in the Caribbean is straining relations with Caracas and raising the risk it could be drawn into a US–Venezuela conflict. After the USS Gravely docked in Port of Spain on October 26, 2025, for joint training with the TTDF, Venezuela’s foreign minister accused T&T of renouncing its sovereignty, “turning its territory into a US aircraft carrier,” and warned of potential “false flag” provocations.
• As US–Venezuela tensions rise, speculation about regime change grows, and T&T–US military cooperation deepens, Fitch maintains that continued US–T&T cooperation will increase the risk of retaliatory measures by the Maduro regime against T&T in the event of a US–Venezuela war. The USS Gravely’s visit follows growing speculation about US-backed regime change and a recent US Embassy advisory warning of a “heightened state of alert” at US facilities in T&T.
• Ongoing tensions in the region – and continued uncertainty on oil and gas development – raise above-ground risks for investors and headwinds to near-term investment. T&T’s relationship with both the US and Venezuela remains crucial, especially for its energy sector, which has been facing insufficient natural gas production to provide feedstock gas for its petrochemical and LNG industries.
• In April 2025, the US revoked two key licences that permitted T&T to collaborate with Venezuela on offshore natural gas projects – specifically the Dragon and Cocuina–Manakin fields – to put pressure on Maduro. However, this decision was reversed on October 17, 2025, as the US reissued an updated OFAC licence for the Dragon field – a major win for T&T following its support for US operations in the Caribbean.
• Despite the potential economic upside that would come from increased gas production from the Dragon gas field, the possibility of military confrontation near T&T creates strong headwinds for inbound investment. In response, Venezuela has moved to suspend all energy cooperation. Despite renewed US authorisation for the Dragon gas field development, Venezuela’s suspension of its energy cooperation agreement with T&T could derail the important project, with drilling now cancelled.
• However, some upside exists. Should T&T–US cooperation help counter the persistent flow of drugs and weapons into the country, there is the possibility of reduced domestic crime, which could help improve Trinidad and Tobago’s business and investment climate, all things equal.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in the third quarter from the previous three-month period, preliminary data showed on Thursday, October 30, 2025, marking its first year-on-year quarterly decline since 2021 and raising prospects that its central bank will press ahead with a fresh interest rate cut next week.
• Impacted mainly by a slowdown in industrial activity, Latin America's second-largest economy broke two consecutive quarters of gross domestic product growth, though data from the national statistics agency INEGI was in line with forecasts from economists polled by Reuters.
• Secondary or manufacturing activities were down 1.5% on a sequential basis, the data showed, offsetting growth of 3.2% in the economy's primary sector, which includes farming, fishing and mining. Services, meanwhile, expanded 0.1%. The data was released ahead of the Bank of Mexico's November 6 monetary policy decision. Policymakers last month cut borrowing costs to their lowest level since May 2022 and indicated they would consider further easing.
• Concerns over global trade tensions and sluggish economic growth have weighed on recent decisions by the central bank. Kimberley Sperrfechter, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the GDP contraction and a dip in inflation in early October make it likely the central bank will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% next week. "With the economy likely to remain relatively weak and inflation set to remain within the target range, we think that Banxico will cut its policy rate to a below-consensus 6.25% by the end of next year," she added.
• Compared with the same period a year earlier, the Mexican economy shrank 0.2% in the third quarter - the first year-on-year contraction since early 2021, when global economic activity was still reeling from the pandemic. Economists at Banamex said they expect a moderate economic recovery in the coming quarters but warned about "high uncertainty due to both external and internal factors." They forecast GDP to grow 0.4% this year and 1.5% in 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• China's latest trade truce with the United States removes one big deterrent for foreign investors who've been circumspect all year about investing in a stock market that's outrun most other major ones with its strongest annual run since 2019. Foreign money managers have so far been both measured and selective participants in a rally that has pushed Chinese stocks to multi-year highs, fearful of pressures from deflation, weak consumption in the world's second-largest economy, and trade tensions.
• Thursday's deal between China and U.S. President Donald Trump removes one source of worry, to an extent. The year-long truce is the longest the two feuding sides have had in a fractious relationship, and it reduces import tariffs on China, removes some controls on Chinese rare earths exports, and allows Chinese firms to receive some U.S. technology. Beyond those encouraging headlines, the specifics of the deal left markets unimpressed and analysts pointing to the breakthrough and commitment to cooperation as the best part of the truce.
• "I don't think this trade deal changes anything dramatically, but it helps move the needle on encouraging offshore investment in China," said Kristina Hooper, New York-based chief market strategist at the Man Group.
• Boosted by policy measures and Chinese artificial intelligence forays, its blue-chip stock index is up by a fifth this year, while the more accessible Hong Kong Hang Seng index is one of the world's top performers this year, with 31% gains, bigger than Nasdaq's 3%. But foreign money has played it safe, staying in sectors around AI and China's self-sufficiency initiatives while avoiding broad exposure.
• Relative to its economic might, which is a fifth of world GDP, China is underowned. Data from financial services firm Morningstar showed large global funds, on average, had a 1.43% exposure to China at the end of September.

(Source: Reuters)