• United States (U.S.) core import prices were unexpectedly unchanged in September as high costs for consumer goods, excluding motor vehicles, were offset by cheaper energy products. The report was delayed by a record 43-day shutdown of the government.
• According to the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, in the 12 months through September, import prices increased 0.3%, marking the first year-on-year rise since March and followed a 0.1% dip in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, rising 0.1% after a previously reported 0.3% advance in August.
• Of note, imported fuel prices dropped 1.5% in September after easing 0.5% in August. Natural gas prices declined 3.0% and food prices decreased 0.8%. Core import prices, which exclude fuels and food, rose 0.3%, the same margin as in August. In the 12 months through September, they advanced 0.8%. This partly reflects dollar weakness against the currencies of the main U.S. trade partners. The trade-weighted dollar is down about 5.6% this year.
• The pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices has so far been modest, with economists saying businesses were opting to absorb the duties. Economists, however, continue to expect an acceleration in the pass-through pace, arguing that a continued decline in margins at businesses was unsustainable and could hamper spending on capital and labour. Meanwhile, the government last week reported a surge in producer prices for goods in September, mostly driven by higher food and energy costs.
• Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to meet next week to discuss interest rates, where still high inflation, coupled with the need to ease labour pressures, has created market uncertainty. Of the 12 voting policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's rate-setting panel, as many as five have expressed opposition or scepticism about further rate cuts. Meanwhile, a core group of three members from the Washington-based Board of Governors is advocating for a decrease in rates.

(Source: Reuters)

• Factory production in the United States (U.S.) was unchanged in September as manufacturing remained constrained by tariffs on imports. The flat reading in manufacturing output reported by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, followed an unrevised 0.1% gain in August.
• Production at factories increased 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in September, while manufacturing output grew at a 1.3% annualised rate in the third quarter, slowing from the April-June quarter's 2.4% pace. Manufacturing has been hamstrung by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, but a surge in spending on artificial intelligence has propped up other industries.
• Trump has defended the duties as necessary to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base, though economists argue that the effort cannot be accomplished in a short period of time, citing high production and labour costs as among the challenges. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday showed its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)¹ contracted for a ninth straight month in November, with tariffs continuing to be cited as a constraint across industries.
• Furthermore, motor vehicle and parts production decreased 2.2% in September after rebounding 3.0% in August. Nondurable manufacturing production dipped 0.1% while mining output was unchanged after rising 0.4% in August. Durable manufacturing output edged up only modestly by 0.1%.
• Utilities production rebounded 1.1%, following a 3.0% decline in August. Overall industrial production ticked up 0.1% after falling 0.3% in August. Industrial output rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis and grew at a 1.1% rate in the third quarter.
• Overall, capacity utilisation for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, was unchanged at 75.9% in September. However, the metric was 3.6 percentage points (pps) below its 1972–2024 average. Further, the operating rate for the manufacturing sector slipped to 75.5% from 75.6% in August and was 2.7pps below its long-run average.

_______________________

 ¹This is an economic metric that indicates whether the manufacturing industry is experiencing an expansion, a contraction, or a standstill.

(Source: Reuters)

• Stationary Office Supplies (SOS) booked a 3.3% earnings decline to $59.31Bn for the Q3 period ending September 30, 2025. The decline occurred as revenue growth was outdone by rising operating expenses.
• Q3 revenues totalled $504.77Mn, up 12.6% year-on-year (YoY), keeping it on pace to $2.0Bn in annual revenues. The growth was supported by rising export orders and the launch of the Company’s online sales platform, which has begun to generate sales.
• COGS grew more slowly relative to revenue growth (9.9% to $220.28Mn), reflecting strategic purchasing practices, including larger-volume orders to reduce the cost of goods. This caused gross profits to increase 14.7% to $284.47Mn and gross margins to improve to 56.4% from 55.3% in Q3 2024.
• Meanwhile, operating expenses increased by 19.9%, driven primarily by higher base salaries and the continued recruitment of highly qualified personnel across departments. This ate into previous efficiency gains, resulting in operating profit showcasing only a 2.5% improvement to $62.07Mn.
• Despite the 2.5% operating profit increase, pre-tax profit declined marginally by 3.0%. This was primarily attributable to lower finance income generation, marginal realised loss on investment and the absence of a one-off gain on the disposal of fixed assets of $5.57Mn.
• With the Q3 2025 period folded into the year-to-date (YTD) performance for the nine months ended September 2025 (9M 2025), the company achieved the second-highest YTD revenue in its history, trailing 2023’s outturn by only 3%. However, the upward pressure on operating expenses erased these gains. 9M 2025 earnings were $154.18Mn, a 22.3% contraction compared to the 9M 2024 period.
• Looking ahead, SOS seeks to benefit from the rebuilding effort as it will require massive amounts of administrative and construction-related supplies (paperwork, planning materials, temporary office setups). This could create a significant, albeit delayed, short-to-medium-term surge in local demand for SOS products.
• As at the close of trading on Tuesday, SOS’s stock price closed at J$1.75, reflecting a 4.2% year-to-date increase. At this price, SOS trades at a P/E of 21.9x, which is below the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 23.3x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, says Jamaica is witnessing a substantial influx of hotel investments and robust development timelines across key properties, despite the disruptive impact of Hurricane Melissa.
• Speaking to business interests and tourism stakeholders during a visit to several hotels and attractions over the weekend (November 28-29) in Montego Bay (St. James) and Negril (Hanover/Westmoreland), the Minister said that despite the effects of Hurricane Melissa and the disruptions caused in tourism and other sectors, “there is still massive hotel investments coming in or still on the table”.
• He cited confirmatory signals from major developments that underscore Jamaica’s resilience and global confidence in the destination, noting that preliminary works have already begun for Grand Palladium Resort & Spa in Hanover on an ambitious expansion – an additional 1,000 rooms with construction slated to commence in January 2026.
• This expansion, he said, signals a strong vote of confidence in Jamaica’s capacity to host increased visitor traffic, while maintaining service excellence. Mr. Bartlett said that across the island, other resort developments have reaffirmed their timelines.
• Bahia Principe has announced a comprehensive refurbishment of its 1,300 rooms alongside the construction of a further 365 high-end luxury rooms, targeting a 2027 opening. The project is also expected to create up to 3,000 jobs, underscoring the sector’s role in inclusive economic growth and community resilience. Sandals Resorts has likewise disclosed expansion plans, reinforcing the ongoing commitment to sustaining Jamaica’s competitive position in the Caribbean.
• Leadership within the industry also highlighted the collaborative approach driving recovery. Chairman of the Tourism Recovery Task Force, John Byles, commended the rapid pace and the partnership between the government and the private sector. Executive Chairman of Sandals International Resorts, Adam Stewart, affirmed Sandals’ enduring commitment to Jamaica and its staff.
• Meanwhile, General Manager of Grand Palladium Resort and Spa in Hanover, Alberto Grau, noted that the company has maintained uninterrupted operations and is well prepared for the upcoming winter season. “Even in the face of Hurricane Melissa, we did not close our doors. We’ve implemented robust contingency measures and remain ready to welcome guests for the peak winter period with enhanced service and facilities,” he said.

(Source: JIS)

• The latest Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025 report from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Group projects continued growth in diaspora-to-region transfers, signalling a solid year ahead for Caribbean remittance inflows.
• The report projects a 9.2% y-o-y increase in remittances income for the Caribbean sub-region in 2025, though more moderate than expected jumps in Central America (20.4%). Total remittance flows across all Caribbean countries are projected to hit approximately US$20.88Bn in 2025.
• Remittance income in Caribbean countries accounted for 12% of the total received by the LAC countries, a share similar to that in recent years.
• The strongest individual showing comes from the Dominican Republic, which is expected to receive US$11.97Bn alone, more than half of the region’s total inflows. Following behind on the regional leaderboard, Haiti is projected as the second largest recipient, with US$4.90Bn, arriving ahead of Jamaica($3.65Bn) and Trinidad and Tobago($0.36Bn).
• North America continues to dominate as the primary source of funds. The United States accounts for 50.4% of all remittance transfers to the Caribbean, followed by Canada at 10.2%.
• Across the Caribbean, remittance contributions to GDP are projected to rise from 9.2% in 2024 to 10.0% in 2025, largely driven by a 1.3 percentage point increase in the Dominican Republic. In Haiti, however, the share of remittances in GDP fell by 3.6 percentage points.
• Beyond the forecast, the damage caused by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica in late October is likely to have a positive impact on the flows of remittances into the island. This will impact not only Jamaica but also the Caribbean total, as Jamaica represents 17% of remittances to the subregion.

(Sources: Inter-American Development Bank)

• Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T) balance of payments data reinforce Fitch’s view of near-term external stability. The country continued to post a current account surplus, supported by energy exports, which rose 11.3% y-o-y in H1 2025 while imports fell 11.0% y-o-y over the same period. This combination drove a 60.7% y-o-y surge in the goods trade balance over the first half of the year. The current account surplus also exceeded the same period in 2024, reflecting increased energy production.
• The outlook is for a modest expansion in the current account from 2025 through 2027 as gas output rises and prices recover. Of note, from January through August 2025, LNG production increased by 15.1% y-o-y compared to the same period in 2024 as several gas projects came online, providing a near-term tailwind to the energy-dependent economy and external sector.
• Despite persistent current account surpluses, T&T’s external outlook is clouded by large and frequent data revisions and a chronically negative ‘errors and omissions’ item in the balance of payments. Over the past decade, ‘errors and omissions’ outflows averaged roughly 6.0% of GDP, consistent with significant unrecorded capital outflows as energy companies tacitly shift funds to more attractive markets.
• While officials have highlighted efforts to improve data accuracy, with the ‘errors and omissions’ item falling from 7.5% of GDP in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024 – continued inconsistencies in balance of payments reporting heighten uncertainty around the external position. Furthermore, data revisions have significantly narrowed both historical and forecasted surpluses. Most recently, the 2024 current account surplus was revised down from 4.8% of GDP to 2.5%, driven by substantial downward changes to the primary income account as energy companies repatriate profits. Similarly, BMI’s current account surplus forecasts have been lowered across the forecast horizon. A surplus of 2.3% of GDP is expected in 2025 (down from 4.7%), and 3.4% of GDP in 2026 (down from 5.0%) is now projected.
• However, despite the uncertainty created by persistent errors and omissions and frequent data revisions, the sovereign’s external account poses limited near-term stability risk. The country remains a net external creditor, supported by ongoing current account surpluses. T&T’s already strong net international investment position (NIIP) rose 16.9% y-o-y in Q2 2025 to an estimated 28.5% of GDP. That improvement, however, primarily reflected a reduction in foreign liabilities, including a notable decline in foreign investment liabilities alongside an 18.0% y-o-y drop in foreign reserve assets.
• While reserves have continued to fall largely due to the central bank’s defense of its de facto US dollar peg through large interventions in the domestic FX markets, the CBTT still maintains adequate buffers. Reserves covered 5.4 months of imports in October 2025 and exceeded the IMF’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy metric, underpinning the view of near-term stability. Additionally, FDI remains the majority of the NIIP’s foreign liabilities, a tailwind for stability. The NIIP, however, was also subject to significant revisions, which saw the stock of liabilities – and the overall position fall. That said, the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago is expected to implement tighter monetary policy through 2026, which will help to mitigate pressure over the coming year through reduced capital flight.
• Risks to the outlook are heightened and skewed to the downside. Substantial and frequent data revisions and a chronically large ‘errors and omissions’ line item increase the uncertainty of the forecasts. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Caribbean – driven by increased US hostility toward Venezuela– pose a headwind to the country’s trade outlook, as evidenced by Venezuela’s move to cancel all contracts with Trinidad and Tobago related to joint energy ventures. Further escalation or prolonged disruptions could weigh on energy trade flows, investment, and financing conditions, amplifying downside risks to the external position over the medium and longer terms.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Britain's Central Bank, the Bank of England (BoE), on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, cut the amount of capital it estimates lenders need to hold by 1 percentage point (pp). This marks the BoE’s first reduction to bank capital demands since the global financial crisis in a bid to boost lending and stimulate the economy.
• The BoE said its capital framework review showed that the benchmark for Tier 1 capital requirements for lenders, set at 14% since 2015, could be reduced by 1pp to 13%. The new level of 13% for UK lenders comprises an underlying optimal level of 11%, plus 2pps to account for outstanding gaps and shortcomings in the measurement of risk-weighted assets. The BoE's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) has been reviewing potential changes to the capital structure since July. Following the easing, banks should have "greater certainty and confidence" to lend to UK households and businesses, the BoE said.
• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey later said that the change in how much capital banks must hold to protect themselves against potential shocks reflected both "the evolution of the banking system and... (current) economic conditions". He told a press conference he was not worried that lower capital requirements would help sow the seeds of the next financial crisis.
• Meanwhile, banking executives and investors had expected some sort of easing in recent weeks after earlier signals from central bank officials and as rival supervisors, including in the United States, prepare to soften their rules. Analysts described the BoE changes as important but measured. In its half-yearly Financial Stability Report, the BoE also noted that it would launch a review on enhancing the usability of buffers and on the implementation of the leverage ratio, initiatives that could further ease requirements for lenders.
• Banking regulators worldwide raised capital requirements in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis to ensure the system had better buffers to withstand liquidity crises, but industry bosses have argued in recent years that such reforms have served their purpose. The BoE said its change on the estimate for bank capital reflected an updated assessment of the benefits of capital helping banks withstand crises, against the drawback of higher capital costs weighing on growth. The Trump administration is expected to ease capital rules for the U.S.'s biggest banks, while the European Union is working on plans to simplify its prudential framework.

(Source: Reuters)

• China has issued the first batch of new rare earth export licences that should accelerate shipments to certain customers, a source said on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, fulfilling a key outcome of the summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
• The approvals come after months of disruption triggered by China’s introduction of rare earth export controls in April at the height of the trade war. By forcing companies to apply for licences for each export, Beijing created shortages that brought parts of the auto supply chain to a halt and handed it enormous leverage in trade talks with Washington.
• The new "general licences" are designed to ease that pressure by allowing more exports under year-long permits for individual customers, and were a key outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting in late October. Currently, only large rare earth companies are eligible to apply for general licences; however, eligibility will widen if the regime is a success.
• The new licences go some way to closing the gap between Beijing and Washington's respective accounts of what was agreed at the leaders' summit in South Korea. While the White House likened general licences to the effective end of China's rare earth export controls, Beijing has said little about the new licences in public and given no sign it intends to dismantle its regime.
• It remains to be seen how widely licences will be issued and whether they will be off limits for some customers, for example, defence or sensitive sectors such as aerospace or semiconductors. Meanwhile, European firms complained about long delays and a lack of transparency in the existing export control system. The rules slowed the approval of more than 2,000 European applications, just over half of which were cleared.

(Source: Reuters)

• Following Hurricane Melissa and at the request of Jamaican Prime Dr. Minister Andrew Holness, CAF – Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean, the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), the Inter-American Development Bank Group (IDB Group), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) have jointly assembled a comprehensive package of up to US$6.7Bn over three years to strengthen Jamaica’s recovery and reconstruction efforts.
• This coordinated effort reflects a unified commitment to help Jamaica pursue a fiscally responsible, long-term recovery through a combination of emergency preparedness financing, sovereign financing, grant support and private sector investments. The announcement comes ahead of the call Prime Minister Holness will hold with representatives from the international financial institutions to discuss implementation plans.
• Jamaica’s robust disaster risk financing framework enabled a rapid flow of funds to meet urgent response needs. This framework facilitated an immediate inflow of critical liquidity to supplement the Government’s own contingency resources, for a total of US$662Mn¹.
• With damages estimated at US$8.8Bn, recovery will require significant resources and long-term investments. Comprehensive recovery planning is already underway, focusing on critical priorities and reinforcing Jamaica’s resilience. CAF, CDB, IDB Group, IMF and WBG are working closely with the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) and other partners to support this process. 
• To that end, a new financial support package of up to US$3.6Bn could be made available to finance the Government’s recovery and reconstruction program over the next three years, comprising:

1. 1. CAF: up to US$1Bn for priority areas identified by the GOJ.
   2. CDB: up to US$200Mn in financing in priority areas identified by the GOJ, including resilient national and community infrastructure, and small business support.
   3. IDB: up to US$1Bn in sovereign financing in priority areas where its technical expertise and long-standing engagement can have a sustained impact.
   4. IMF: Jamaica has requested access under the large natural disaster window of the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), which could amount to a loan of up to US$415Mn.
   5. World Bank: up to US$1Bn in sovereign financing, including budget support, partial risk guarantees and investment projects in critical sectors.

• To ensure Jamaica’s recovery is effective, resilient and informed by global best practices, the five institutions are also providing technical assistance and policy advisory services that draw on global experience and best practices in disaster response. So far, US$12Mn in grants has already been mobilised from the IDB, the WBG and CAF, with more to come.  

________________________________

¹This included US$37Mn from its Contingency Fund and National Natural Disaster Reserve Fund, US$91Mn from the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), US$150Mn from the WBG Catastrophe Bond, US$300Mn available from the IDB’s Contingent Credit Facility (CCF) and US$42Mn (scalable to US$84Mn) available upon request under the World Bank Group’s Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO).

(Source: International Monetary Fund)

• Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $751.38Mn for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025), down from a $144.90Mn profit for Q3 2024. The loss stemmed from underperforming revenues, particularly from net interest expenses, net trading losses and unrealised losses on its investments.
• With interest expenses of $774.71Mn exceeding interest income of $652.99Mn, net interest expense totalled $121.71Mn. The higher interest costs were due to the growth in securities sold under repurchase agreements and borrowings. This was compounded by net trading losses of $21.49Mn, which compares to the $1.56Bn gain in Q3 2024. Additionally, there was a net foreign exchange loss of $37.24Mn, compared to $95.51Mn gains seen in Q3 2024. The group also faced net unrealised losses on its financial instruments and investments in associates of $259.18Mn and $312.08Mn, respectively. Consequently, MGL had a total investment loss of $272.69Mn versus $980.37Mn gains for Q3 2024.
• Beyond the investment loss, Q3 operating expenses also increased by 14.6% to $748.33Mn. This was primarily due to higher other operating expenses, up 56.6% to $426.75Mn.This line item comprised operational losses, legal and professional fees and sales/marketing expenses.
• MGL’s Q3 2025 performance contributed to a net loss attributable to shareholders of $2.40Bn for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 (9M 2025). This compares to a loss of $560.9Mn for 9M 2024.
• The 9M loss reflects persistently unfavourable market performance. Notably, net unrealised losses on associate companies, Supreme Ventures (-35.4%), and Dolla Financial (-30.1%) declined year to date. Mixed performance of non-interest income also put pressure on the Group’s 9M earnings. Fee and commission income rose by 15.5% on stronger transaction activity, and net FX gains increased by 5.4% due to the revaluation of foreign-currency balances. This was negated by dividend income (-24.7%) as investee declarations declined, and net trading activity, which swung to a $13.7Mn loss compared to $1.6Bn in gains in 2024, which included the sale of the Group’s 20.0% stake in CPJ.
• Prospectively, through MGL’s 36.78% stake in Mayberry Jamaican Equities Limited (MJE), the Group remains exposed to several JSE-listed entities that are vulnerable to economic aftershocks from Hurricane Melissa, including SVL, JBG, WIG, Iron Rock, DOLLA, and LASF. While some companies have indicated that the storm’s direct impact on their operations was limited, there is still potential for medium-term contagion effects as the expected rise in inflation filters through to operating expenses and consumer demand. This dynamic could pressure short-term earnings potential across the portfolio. Moreover, an anticipated economic downturn could also bear on the stock market, fuelling more unrealised losses in the near term and lower trade income.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, MGL’s stock price closed at J$7.04, reflecting a 25.7% year-to-date decline. At this price, MGL trades at a P/B of 0.56x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.16x.

(Sources: MGL Financial Statements, NCBCM Research)