• On April 8, 2026, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Aruba to 'A-' from 'BBB+' and affirmed its 'A-2' short-term rating. The transfer and convertibility assessment was revised to A- from BBB+. The outlook is stable.
• The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that Aruba’s fiscal discipline will underpin a continued decrease in its net debt and interest burden amid a cooperative relationship with the Netherlands¹. Expectations that the tourism-concentrated economy will continue to grow over the next few years, supporting fiscal and external balances, also factored into the rating outlook.
• Aruba's growing economy and fiscal surpluses have supported continued debt repayments that, along with strong, growing public sector assets, improved the government’s fiscal profile and external position. The economy will continue to be dominated by the tourism sector, but capacity constraints will temper growth. S&P expects tourism-driven growth of 1.9% in 2026, down from 3.9% in 2025.
• Ongoing growth will lead to fiscal surpluses and will continue to support debt reduction. Of note, in 2025, Aruba posted a surplus of 3.6% of GDP and repaid debt of 140 million Aruban florins. The agency believes the government will continue to control its spending such that the average change in net general government debt over the next four years will be close to negative 2.2% of GDP, indicating debt will decrease over time.
• The country’s external position has improved in tandem with its economic and fiscal recovery since the pandemic. Aruba’s growing external pension assets and reduced external debt have contributed to a stronger narrow net external debt position, which will average 24% of current account payments. At the same time, tourism sector receipts will likely lead to ongoing current account surpluses of about 2.6% of GDP over the forecast horizon. These dynamics will contribute to gross external financing needs remaining above 100% of current account receipts and usable reserves during the forecast horizon.
• That said, the sovereign is highly dependent on tourism, and this, together with its small size and low-lying elevation, makes its economy and debt vulnerable to external shocks, which was evident during the pandemic when debt rose substantially.
• Notwithstanding, these risks are mitigated by Aruba’s access to rapid funding provided by the Netherlands. This highlights the benefits it receives from its status as a member of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, bolstering its political and institutional stability, policy predictability, and judicial certainty.

______________________________

¹Owing to its status as a member of the Kingdom of the Netherlands

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Costa Rica, on Saturday, April 11, 2026, received the first group of migrants from other countries deported from the ​United States (U.S.) under an agreement signed in March between ‌the two countries.
• Costa Rica's General Directorate of Migration and Foreigners said the 25 migrants included citizens of Albania, Cameroon, China, Guatemala, Honduras, ​India, Kenya and Morocco. Under the agreement, Costa Rica will ​receive up to 25 people per week, while the United States will provide financial support, and the IOM (International Organisation for Migration) will offer food and accommodation during the ​first seven days of migrants' stay in the country.
• The agreement is ​part of U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to ramp up his mass deportation ‌program, ⁠including removing immigrants to third countries that are not their country of origin. The administration has said that such third-country deportations are necessary to remove people whose home countries refuse to accept ​them. But these deportations ​have faced criticism ⁠from Democrats and human rights advocates for stranding migrants in countries far from their homelands, where ​they often don't speak the language or have any ​family ⁠
• In February, Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee released a report that said the deportation agreements with foreign governments cost American taxpayers millions ⁠of ​dollars, at times more than $1Mn per ​person shipped out of the country, and produce little benefit.
• Furthermore, while the agreement may strengthen diplomatic ties with the United States, it could potentially weaken Costa Rica’s tourism-dependent economy and dampen broader economic growth if negative perceptions, media coverage, or social pressures reduce its appeal to international visitors.
• That said, this risk is set against a still-stable macroeconomic outlook, as BMI analysts forecast real GDP growth in Costa Rica of 3.9% for 2026, following a 4.6% expansion in 2025. This slight slowdown is more in line with the pre-pandemic long-term run rate of 3.8% real growth, suggesting a normalisation of growth rather than a sharp downturn.

(Sources: Reuters, NCBCM Research, BMI - A Fitch Solutions Company)

• President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, April 12, 2026, dimming hopes for a quick end to the conflict and escalating a standoff with Iran that has already triggered the worst energy shock in history. The blockade, which targets vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, took effect on Monday, April 13, 2026.
• Tanker traffic through the strait ground to a halt within hours of the announcement, reversing a gradual recovery seen after a two-week ceasefire, with at least two vessels turning back. Crude oil surged as investors scrambled to price in tighter supply, with US WTI futures rising more than 8% and Brent crude over 7% to $101.86.
• Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the flow has since slowed to a trickle, upending supply chains for oil, fertilisers, apparel and industrial goods. Analysts have warned that clearing the backlog could take weeks even after a resolution.
• A full blockade would further tighten the squeeze on global supply, with analysts warning oil prices could rise to around $150 per barrel. Commodity prices for fertiliser and helium, critical inputs for food production and semiconductor manufacturing, are likely to keep climbing, fanning inflation that is already accelerating.
• The blockade risks drawing major economies into the conflict, particularly China and India, as a blanket ban on tankers carrying Iranian crude threatens to cut off supply flows. Further, it could potentially reignite geopolitical tensions and expose countries with safe-passage arrangements to the crossfire.
• While some analysts view the blockade as a negotiating tactic within ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, others warn it carries significant downside risks, including military escalation, legal challenges under international law, and prolonged supply disruptions, with the potential to trigger an energy shock comparable to or worse than the 1970s oil crisis.

(Source: CNBC)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and International Energy Agency (IEA) on Monday urged countries to avoid hoarding energy supplies and imposing export controls, warning this could worsen the biggest shock ever to the global energy market.
• IEA chief, Fatih Birol, said several countries were holding onto stocks and imposing export restrictions, and appealed to all countries to let energy stocks flow to the markets. He stressed that energy supplies should be allowed to flow to markets, while IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged countries to “do no harm,” warning such actions would worsen disequilibrium.
• Birol also noted during an Atlantic Council event that the U.S. military blockade of ships leaving Iran’s ports, which began on Monday, could exacerbate the worst global energy disruption ever. With more than 80 oil and gas facilities damaged, and prices for oil, gas, and fertiliser rising, concerns about food security, job losses, and broader economic strain are mounting.
• Officials warned that no country is immune, with the impact expected to be more severe for regions already facing supply concerns, particularly in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and small island economies.
• The IEA chief noted that while he hopes another oil stockpile release is not needed, the agency was ready to act if the energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran requires it. The 32-member IEA agreed ​last month to release 400 Mn barrels of oil from reserves, the largest-ever coordinated release, in ​a bid to calm oil markets. 

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector has grown steadily despite occasional setbacks from hurricanes. The country is now the largest BPO hub in the Caribbean, employing between 40,000 and 50,000 people and generating close to $1Bn in annual revenue. The total workspace dedicated to BPO operations across the island has expanded to more than three million square feet, according to the government data.
• Considering this, the government is now focused on moving the industry up the value chain, from basic voice support to higher-skilled services such as data analytics, compliance monitoring, complex customer engagement, and knowledge-based processing. At the launch of the Informatics Park Incubator, a plug-and-play facility^[1], Delano Seiveright, Minister of State for Industry and Commerce, emphasised this shift.
• Jamaica is also strengthening its infrastructure and regulations. The country has adopted global PCI-DSS standards for payment security, and its Data Protection Act includes several key elements of Europe’s GDPR. These measures have allowed Jamaican BPOs to handle sensitive work such as Anti-Money Laundering (AML) monitoring and Know Your Customer (KYC) processes.
• A similar upgrade is happening in healthcare outsourcing. The government has started training workers in ICD-11 medical coding, and some local BPOs are now managing revenue cycle operations for U.S. hospitals, from patient registration to final claims processing. Training is also expanding into telehealth support and care management for chronic conditions.
• Workforce development programmes, supported by the HEART/NSTA Trust, are likely to create a steady pipeline of trained talent in medical office administration and digital health services. This allows companies that start small in the incubator to grow quickly into larger, specialised operations.
• Jamaica’s push into higher-value BPO services positions it to capture more resilient, higher-margin contracts globally. However, this strategy remains vulnerable to external risks such as increased competition from lower-cost or more technologically advanced markets. Tightening data privacy regulations in key client regions and rapid automation/artificial intelligence (AI) adoption could also reduce demand for mid-skill outsourcing roles unless workforce upskilling keeps pace.

(Sources: Nearshore Americas & NCBCM Research)

^[1] As the name “plug-and-play” suggests, companies can move in, connect to ready-made infrastructure, and start working almost immediately, without spending months on setup.

• Jamaica’s economy has been hit by external headwinds over the last 12 months, but the largest shock was Hurricane Melissa (October 28, 2025), the most extreme tropical system to make landfall in the country’s history, with estimated damage and losses of 56.7% of GDP, comparable to Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
• Hurricane Melissa was one of the most devastating storms ever to hit Jamaica, significantly more intense than Gilbert, highlighting the country’s increasing exposure to severe natural hazard events.
• In response, Jamaica’s 2022 Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) policy introduced a comprehensive framework to address relief, recovery, and reconstruction across both high-frequency and low-frequency events. The framework is also based on the concept of ‘risk layering’, meaning that different levels of risk are covered by different financial instruments, with each instrument designed to be best suited to the risk it is intended to address. As such, resilience has been built through a comprehensive disaster risk financing strategy.
• This framework made available US$662Mn in government resources for immediate recovery, later increased to over US$1.07Bn with International Monetary Fund (IMF) support (US$415Mn in January 2026), helping to address urgent needs such as medical attention, shelters, food security, and restoration of energy, water, and transport.
•  Additional instruments, including the US$150Mn catastrophe bond (2024–2027), which was fully triggered by Melissa, demonstrate proactive financial preparedness, even though total damages (approximately US$12.2Bn) far exceeded the current available resources of US$1.08Bn.
• While recovery will take several years, Jamaica’s strong track record of fiscal management and pre-arranged financing mechanisms have been critical in enabling a rapid response, supporting recovery efforts, and strengthening long-term resilience to extreme natural disasters.

(Source: Inter-American Development Bank)

• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has upgraded its Regional Scale Local Currency (LC) and Foreign Currency (FC) Ratings for the Government of Barbados (GOB) by one-notch to CariBBB+. The ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of this obligor, adjudged in relation to other obligors in the Caribbean is adequate.
• The one-notch upgrade reflects strengthening across key macroeconomic and policy pillars, including income and economic structure, fiscal policy, monetary/exchange rate management, external sector strength, and political stability.
• Key drivers of the rating improvement include a continued decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, which fell to 94.6% in December 2025 from 97.2% a year earlier, supported by sustained fiscal consolidation efforts. Economic growth remains strong and broad-based, driven mainly by tourism, business services, and construction activity, while tourism performance continues to exceed pre-pandemic levels with record long-stay arrivals supporting foreign exchange earnings.
• In addition, the successful completion of the IMF Extended Fund Facility programme has further strengthened policy credibility and enabled access to additional IMF support through the Resilience and Sustainability Trust. Fiscal performance has also improved, with the primary balance increasing to 4.0% of GDP in FY 2024/25, exceeding expectations, while external buffers remain strong, with gross international reserves providing more than six months of import cover and supporting external debt servicing capacity.
• CariCRIS maintains a stable outlook, expecting continued fiscal discipline (primary surpluses above 3%) and moderate growth to support debt reduction over the medium term. Positive rating triggers include a reduction in debt below 85% of GDP (currently at 93.3%), which would signal further strengthening of the sovereign balance sheet, as well as sustained fiscal surpluses above 3% of GDP over the next 12 months, which would reinforce the medium-term debt reduction trajectory.
• Negative rating risks include import cover falling below 12 weeks without credible sources of external reserve replenishment, delays in tourism-related investment projects scheduled for 2026 that could weaken growth prospects. It also includes slippage in the implementation of the Barbados Economic Reform and Transformation (BERT) 2026 programme that could undermine fiscal consolidation, and a sustained deterioration in the fiscal balance that weakens the primary surplus and slows progress toward debt reduction targets.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• Venezuela’s refining network is operating well below capacity, processing around 399,000 barrels per day (bpd), or roughly 31% of its 1.29 million-bpd installed capacity, marking a decline from about 35% in February as state-owned oil and gas company of Venezuela Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) continues to struggle with maintaining stable operations after restarting multiple units.
• This weaker performance comes despite a gradual recovery in oil production and exports following a supply agreement with the U.S. earlier in the year. However, persistent constraints, including unreliable electricity supply, frequent power outages, and the need for extensive maintenance and repairs across ageing infrastructure, continue to limit the country’s ability to restore refining activity to higher levels.
• PDVSA has recently focused on restarting key fuel-processing units across its refinery network, but operational reliability remains weak. In particular, several fluid catalytic cracking units, which are critical for converting crude into higher-value fuels like gasoline, have been unable to run continuously, leading to unstable output and limiting overall refining efficiency.
• At the Paraguana Refining Centre, the country’s largest facility with a capacity of about 955,000 bpd, four crude distillation units are currently active and processing approximately 237,000 bpd of oil. However, only one fluid catalytic cracking unit is in operation, highlighting significant downstream bottlenecks that constrain fuel output despite crude throughput.
• At the Puerto la Cruz refinery, two crude distillation units are operating and processing about 82,000 bpd, while at the smaller El Palito refinery, one crude unit is active, processing roughly 80,000 bpd, alongside a single operational catalytic cracking unit. These partial operations reflect a broader pattern of intermittent functionality across the refining system rather than sustained recovery.
• Despite this limited recovery, Venezuela continues to face recurring risks of domestic fuel shortages, a problem that has historically led to long queues at petrol stations during periods of tight supply. To mitigate these constraints, PDVSA has been importing naphtha under U.S. authorisations to help blend and supplement domestic fuel production, underscoring continued dependence on external inputs to stabilise fuel supply.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter amid downgrades to business investment, including inventory accumulation, but corporate profits increased ​sharply, government data showed.
• Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a downwardly ‌revised 0.5% annualised rate, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third GDP estimate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 0.7% pace in the fourth quarter. The advance estimate had put GDP growth at 1.4%.
• Revisions to the fourth quarter's growth pace reflected downgrades to business spending ​on intellectual products as well as inventories. Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more ​than two-thirds of the economy, was revised down to a 1.9% pace from the previously reported 2.0% rate.
• Last year's shutdown of the government was the key driver of the slowdown from the ​third quarter's 4.4% growth pace. Neither the third- nor fourth-quarter GDP readings is a true reflection of the economy's health. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, which exclude government, trade and inventories, grew ‌at ⁠a 1.8% pace in the fourth quarter. This measure of domestic demand, closely watched by policymakers, was previously estimated to have increased at a 1.9% rate. Domestic demand grew at a 2.9% pace in the July-September quarter.
• Profits from current production increased at ​a rate of $246.9 ​billion in the ⁠fourth quarter, surging from a $175.6 billion growth pace in the third quarter. When measured from the income side, the economy grew at ​a 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic income (GDI) increased ​at a ⁠3.5% pace in the July-September quarter.
• The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of economic activity, grew at ⁠a 1.5% ​rate. Gross domestic output grew at a 4.0% ​rate in the third quarter. Though growth likely picked up in the first quarter, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran ​is casting a cloud over the economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. inflation increased as expected in February and likely rose further in March amid the war with Iran, a trend that is expected to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates for a while. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index ​climbed 0.4% after an unrevised 0.3 gain in January, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said ‌on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index rising 0.4%.
• In the 12 months through February, PCE inflation advanced 2.8% after increasing by the same margin in January.
• The BEA is still catching up on data releases following delays caused by last year's government ​shutdown. Inflation was already elevated before the war, largely because of President Donald Trump's import duties. The U.S.-Israel ​war with Iran boosted global oil prices and sent the national average gasoline retail price soaring ⁠above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years.
• Economists expect the inflation fallout from the ​conflict, which started at the end of February, would be more pronounced in March's data. Trump on Tuesday announced a ​two-week ceasefire on condition of Tehran reopening the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, which has also affected shipments of fertilisers and other goods. The disruptions are expected to raise food prices.
• Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.4% in February, rising by the same ​margin for a third straight month. In the 12 months through February, core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% following a ​3.1% increase in January.
• The slowdown in year-on-year core PCE inflation reflected last year's high readings dropping out of the calculation.

(Source: Reuters)