• ExxonMobil has reached a definitive investment decision regarding the Whiptail development situated offshore Guyana, after securing requisite government and regulatory endorsements. The announcement was made on April 12, 2024, almost a week after Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro passed a law declaring the border region of Essequibo, which belongs to Guyana, a Venezuelan federal state. This announcement by Exxon indicates that the company is continuing to pursue its investment in Guyana’s oil and gas industry, despite the geopolitical risks posed by Venezuela’s recent actions.
• Whiptail, the sixth project within the Stabroek block is forecasted to augment daily capacity by approximately 250,000 barrels by 2027.
• According to Liam Mallon, President of ExxonMobil Upstream Company, Whiptail will elevate Guyana’s production capacity to approximately 1.3Mn barrels per day (bpd) in 2027 from  about 645,000 bpd in early 2024. He further underscored that through close collaboration with the Government of Guyana, partners, suppliers, and contractors, ExxonMobil saw unparalleled success in cultivating Guyana's resource reservoirs, achieved through industry-leading efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and environmental stewardship.
• Notably, the Stabroek block developments are among the least emissions-intensive assets within ExxonMobil's upstream portfolio. They are poised to supply global markets with additional dependable energy resources well into the future. The Whiptail endeavour, boasting a price tag of US$12.7Bn, is slated to encompass up to 10 drill centres, housing 48 production and injection wells.
• The production emanating from the six Stabroek block developments is anticipated to yield tens of billions of dollars in revenue and foster substantial economic growth in Guyana. Since production began in 2019, the Guyana Natural Resource Fund has received a contribution exceeding US$4.2Bn.
• The Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel designated for the Whiptail project, to be named Jaguar, is presently undergoing construction. Concurrently, three FPSOs—Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, and Prosperity—are operational offshore Guyana. Collectively, they sustain the safe production of over 600,000 barrels bpd. Construction activities are underway for FPSOs earmarked for the Yellowtail and Uaru projects, with Yellowtail anticipated to commence production in 2025 and Uaru slated for 2026.

(Sources: ChemAnalyst & NCBCM Research)

• Tourism and energy activities represent the main sources of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Dominican Republic and have resulted in significant inflows for the country in 2023.
• According to statistical data from the Export and Investment Center of the Dominican Republic (ProDominicana), foreign investments in the tourism sector grew from US$1.05Bn to US$1.18Bn between 2022 and 2023.
• Furthermore, the energy sector saw a significant increase in FDI from US$749Mn to US$1.07Bn between 2022 and 2023. Overall, total FDI inflows amounted to US$4.39Bn in 2023 supported by growing sectors like commerce, real estate, free trade zones, mining, and finance.
• The United States, was the most significant source of foreign investments in the country, followed by Spain, Mexico, and Canada.
• Overall, the Dominican Republic has strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a diversified economy, becoming a manufacturing and service hub to take advantage of trade agreements as well as to continue to grow and attract foreign direct investment.
• Given this, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts strong growth in 2024 and beyond, with the consensus at 5% annually for the rest of the decade, barring any major domestic or international events.

 (Source: Dominican Today & NCBCM Research)

• Israel's military pledges a response to Iran's missile and drone attack, led by Chief Herzi Halevi, without specifying details but stressing the necessity of reacting to the significant incursion into Israeli territory.
• Iran's attack on Israel, in retaliation for a suspected Israeli airstrike in Damascus, raises concerns of open warfare between the two nations and heightens existing fears of broader violence in the region.
• Leaders from the EU, France, Germany, and the UK urge restraint to prevent further conflict, emphasizing the need for de-escalation and diplomatic solutions to the crisis.
• Several countries, including France, Belgium, and Germany, summon Iranian ambassadors, while Russia expresses concern about escalation and calls for restraint. The United States refrains from urging specific actions, leaving the response to Israel.
• The attack causes travel disruption and increases tensions in the region. Iran claims to have informed the US and regional neighbours beforehand, but US officials deny receiving any warning, complicating the situation further.

(Source: Reuters)

• The New York Fed reports a record high average reservation wage in March, indicating the lowest wage individuals are willing to accept for a new job, driven by factors such as gender, age, and education level.
• Inflation pressures and a tight labour market prompt workers to demand higher wages. However, despite these demands, employers are offering lower starting wages on average, indicating a discrepancy between worker expectations and employer offers.
• The report indicates declining satisfaction with both wage and non-wage compensation in March, while satisfaction with promotion opportunities remains steady. Worker satisfaction with compensation, both wage and non-wage, decreased in March, while satisfaction with promotion opportunities remains unchanged. This suggests a general dissatisfaction with compensation packages among workers.
• Ongoing inflation and a strong demand for workers have given employees more power to negotiate higher wages, contributing to the trend of rising reservation wages.
• The trend of rising wage demands has broader economic implications, prompting discussions about inflation, labour market dynamics, and policies related to wage-setting mechanisms. These discussions may influence future economic policies and decisions.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Minister of State in the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Hon. Franklin Witter, says the Essex Valley Agriculture Development Project (EVADP) will revolutionise farming and rural development in South St. Elizabeth and its environs.
• The project, which is slated for completion in early 2025, will deliver 1,700 cubic metres of water per hour, benefiting more than 700 farmers operating on 810 hectares of land in the Essex Valley region of the parish. By increasing access to irrigation, the project is expected to boost agricultural production and productivity, increase food security, and create a more vibrant and resilient local economy.
• Witter noted that the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service approved a ceiling budget of $4.3Bn in the 2023/2024 financial year for the EVADP land irrigation development, and Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, recently committed a further $2Bn.
• One of the key components of the project, Mr. Witter noted, is the installation of a solar plant that will provide the necessary energy to power the irrigation system and other facilities. This renewable energy source, he said, not only aligns with Jamaica’s commitment to sustainability but also ensures that the project remains cost-effective and environmentally friendly in the long run.

(Source: JIS)

• Regional rating agency Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS), has reaffirmed Jamaica National Group’s (JN) ratings at CariBBB+ (Foreign Currency Rating) and CariA- (Local Currency Rating) on the regional scale. However, it has revised the company’s outlook to negative from stable.
• CariCRIS stated in its release that the change in outlook is based on JN Group Limited’s subsidiaries reporting losses for 2 consecutive years. Additionally, this loss position is expected to persist over the next 12 months, albeit at a lower level.
• It went on to state that given the challenged earnings, the Group’s cost-to-income ratio is expected to remain elevated.
• Expansion of the Group’s product and service offerings and/or improvements in operating efficiencies, improvement in the Group’s cost-to-income ratio to 65% or below for at least 2 consecutive years, and changes to Jamaica’s sovereign rating are some of the main factors that would drive a change in the company’s credit rating.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• The World Bank has revised downward its outlook for growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to 1.6% from its previous estimate of 2.3%, saying the region continues to lag growth rates registered in other parts of the world.
• The World Bank forecasts that regional GDP will expand by 1.6% in 2024. GDP growth of 2.7 and 2.6 are expected for 2025 and 2026. These rates are the lowest compared to all other regions in the world and insufficient to drive prosperity, according to the World Bank.
• LAC has reached a critical juncture. While the region has made significant progress in economic stabilization over recent decades, growth has stalled, undermining progress. 
• Factors driving these growth numbers include low levels of investment and domestic consumption, elevated interest rates and high fiscal deficits, declining commodity prices, and uncertainty in the prospects of important partners such as the U.S., China, Europe, and other G7 countries.
• "Persistent low growth is not just an economic statistic, it's a barrier for development. It translates into reduced public services, fewer job opportunities, depressed salaries and higher poverty and inequality. When economies stagnate, the potential of its people is constrained. We must act decisively to help Latin America and the Caribbean break away from this cycle," said Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, World Bank Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean.

(Source: The World Bank Group)

• Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd has announced the commissioning of its latest offshore oil well, designated as S-938. According to Heritage, this marks a 'significant milestone' in its field development efforts.
• 'Situated within the Soldado East Field, S-938 has an expected average daily rate of 500 barrels of oil per day (bopd), which promises to contribute significantly to the company's revenue,' a release from the company stated.
• 'S-938 is the third well to be put into production after commencing its offshore drilling programme, in line with Heritage's strategy to grow high-margin production. Drilling of S-938 began in August 2023, and after rigorous design and engineering efforts, the topsides were completed in March 2024. This was followed by the requisite inspections and statutory approvals prior to commissioning,' it stated.
• Heritage's chief executive officer, Erik Keskula, stated the strategic importance of S-938, highlighting its role in developing a track record of delivering new offshore wells and facilities to increase production.
• 'Heritage anticipates ongoing benefits from this well and three additional wells that are expected to be commissioned in the coming months. Additionally, as Heritage continues to expand its offshore drilling programme in the third quarter of 2024, the company remains committed to operational excellence, environmental stewardship, and delivering returns to all its stakeholders, including the Government and people of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago,' it stated.

 (Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• Fitch downgraded its outlook on China’s credit rating on Tuesday, citing increasing risks to its finances as it faces economic challenges. Lowering its outlook from stable to negative does not automatically mean the rating agency will downgrade China’s creditworthiness, but it increases the chances.
• The revision “reflects increasing risks to China’s public finance outlook as the country contends with more uncertain economic prospects amid a transition away from property-reliant growth to what the government views as a more sustainable growth model,” it said in a statement. Fitch kept its rating on Chinese sovereign bonds at A+.
• China’s general government deficit is projected to rise to 7.1% of gross domestic product in 2024 from 5.8% last year. This year’s deficit is expected to be the highest since 2020, when pandemic-related controls began to weigh heavily on public coffers.
• China’s Finance Ministry has expressed “regret” over the revision. “We had a lot of in-depth communication with the Fitch Ratings team in the early stage, and the report partly reflected China’s views,” it said in a Wednesday statement. It added that the agency’s methodology “fails to effectively and prospectively reflect the positive role of fiscal policy in promoting economic growth.”
• “In the long run, maintaining a moderate deficit and making good use of precious debt funds will help expand domestic demand, support economic growth, and ultimately help maintain good sovereign credit,” it said.
• The fiscal budget deficit ratio for 2024 is set at 3%, according to the statement, which describes it as “overall moderate” and “conducive to stable economic growth.” The ministry has targeted 5% for economic growth for this year, which it says is “in line with realistic conditions.”
• “The long-term positive trend of China’s economy has not changed, nor has the Chinese government’s ability and determination to maintain good sovereign credit,” it said. In December, rival rating agency Moody’s downgraded its outlook on China’s credit rating from stable to negative, citing risks related to “structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth” and ongoing troubles in its property sector.

(Source: CNN)

• IMF Chief Georgieva expresses concern over the impact of higher U.S. interest rates on the global economy, noting that they make the U.S. more attractive for financial flows, potentially leaving other countries struggling.
• While acknowledging the prudence of the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, Georgieva suggests that the U.S. government could explore additional measures to prevent overheating of the economy, although she doesn't provide specifics.
• Higher interest rates lead to a stronger dollar, weakening other countries' currencies, which could pose challenges to financial stability if sustained over a prolonged period. Recent consumer-level inflation data casts doubt on the Fed's forecast of rate cuts later in the year, with reports indicating stronger inflation than anticipated, prompting investors to reconsider their expectations for the timing of rate adjustments.
• Georgieva highlights the strengths of the U.S. economy, including its innovation, robust labour market supported by immigration, and recent government initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act and COVID aid. The IMF sees potential for the U.S. government to address inflation concerns and navigate towards a soft landing for the economy.

(Source: Reuters)