• Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T’s) exports and overall trade profile are poised to benefit significantly from the surge in global energy prices since the onset of the United States (U.S.)-Iran conflict, with the current account surplus set to widen substantially from 4.7% of GDP in 2025 to 6.5% in 2026.
• Following 2025, which saw energy exports rise, more than offsetting a decline in non-energy exports, BMI expects T&T’s trade position to strengthen further in 2026. This will be driven primarily by surging energy exports, which accounted for 83.3% of total exports in 2025, positioning the country to benefit enormously from recent energy market developments. BMI also notes, however, that T&T’s primary income deficit will widen in 2026, as surging profits generated by foreign oil companies are repatriated, offsetting some of the overall boost to the current account. This mirrors historical trends, seen recently when oil prices rose in 2022.
• The expectation of increased energy exports in 2026 is based on two supporting factors: strongly favourable terms-of-trade support from the U.S.-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices, alongside the expectation that hydrocarbon production will rise in 2026 as newly operational fields ramp up output.
• Notably, BP's Cypre field, which opened in April 2025 and completed its seven-well drilling programme in December 2025, will support output gains. Q1 2026 LNG production data show a year-over-year output expansion in volume terms, and combined with supportive prices, this will help propel exports through the year as the conflict shows few signs of near-term abatement. Indeed, T&T’s trade profile is strongly correlated with energy prices, with a 1.0% increase in the Brent crude price associated with a 0.52% increase in goods exports in the current quarter and a 0.30% increase in the quarter ahead.
• Additionally, this development will have well-timed benefits for T&T’s external buffers. Strong earnings and soaring prices will help provide support for the country's currency regime and reserve position. Furthermore, expectations are that the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago will welcome this development, especially given that declining reserve levels may otherwise necessitate a rise in the policy rate to counter capital outflows – a negative development given soft domestic demand. In the near term, these pressures will be muted by the supportive external environment that will support reserves accumulation, which has risen in recent months.
• That said, risks to the outlook are heightened but balanced, driven primarily by uncertainty surrounding ongoing Middle East geopolitical strife. Should oil prices remain higher for longer than expected, T&T’s current account surplus and trade balance could outperform the forecast. Conversely, a quicker resolution to the conflict would represent a downside risk, as energy prices would likely fall back more rapidly than currently anticipated, weighing on the trade balance and buffers.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• BMI continues to expect that the Dominican Republic (DR) economy will expand by 3.8% in 2026, after disappointing growth of just 2.1% in 2025. Data released in the year-to-date have been remarkably strong, with the monthly activity index consistent with a roughly 2.0% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase in output after a relatively soft end to 2025 due in part to adverse weather events. This pick-up appears to largely reflect a reacceleration of activity in the construction sector, where the imposition of tighter migration controls and some public budget execution issues acted as headwinds in 2025.
• Meanwhile, a tight domestic labour market and continued robust performance for the tourism industry, which has been underpinned by steady increases in sectoral capacity, have helped to sustain steady growth in services, a trend that is expected to continue.
• While the DR is a net energy importer, the government’s decision to shield the private sector from much of the oil price shock stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict will help to reduce the direct impact on the economy. This does raise some fiscal risks (the subsidies are estimated to cost the government between DOP1.0-1.5Bn a week, or .02% of GDP), but the hit to the public finances should be manageable with the deficit set to widen from 3.6% of GDP to 4.0%.
• In this scenario, BMI anticipates that inflation will remain close to the upper end of the BCRD’s (Banco Central de la República Dominicana’s) 3.0-5.0% target range, reducing pressure on the central bank to hike. With views for no Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes this year, BMI assumes the BCRD will hold its policy rate at 5.25% in 2026.
• Risks to the projections are broadly balanced. While BMI remains constructive on growth, embedded in its forecast is an assumption that a more challenging global backdrop contributes to a modest deceleration in economic activity over Q2 that may fail to materialise given the data available through March. On the other hand, expectations are that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by mid-year, triggering a sharp drop in oil prices over the second half of 2026. If the Strait remains closed, oil prices could reach above US$150/bbl, raising the risk of a global recession and leaving the Dominican government with a difficult decision on whether to retain existing fuel price subsidies or phase them out and pass the cost to consumers.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Oil prices were volatile on Thursday, May 21, 2026, ultimately settling about 2% lower as uncertainty over prospects for resolving the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran weighed on the market. Brent crude futures settled at $102.58 a barrel, down $2.44, or 2.3%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures closed at $96.35, down 1.9%, their lowest in nearly two weeks.
• Earlier in the session, prices had surged as much as 4% after Reuters reported that Iran's supreme leader issued a directive that dented hopes for a swift resolution to the war. However, prices later reversed course as the market weighed mixed diplomatic signals.
• The report signalled that Tehran is hardening its stance on a key U.S. demand. The directive from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei could further complicate negotiations and frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to broker an end to the war.
• Gains accelerated after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a proposed tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible. However, prices later pared gains after he added that officials from Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator, will travel to Iran for talks.
• Iran also announced a new “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to oversee a “controlled maritime zone” in the Strait of Hormuz. Further, Iran warned against further attacks and unveiled steps entrenching its control of the strait, which remains mostly closed. Before the war, the strait carried oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments equal to about 20% of global consumption.
• Notably, supply risks remain a major concern. The start of peak summer fuel demand, combined with the lack of new oil exports from the Middle East and depleting stocks, could push the oil market into the “red zone” in July-August, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) head, Fatih Birol. Even if the Middle East conflict ended now, full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, according to Abu Dhabi ​National Oil Company (ADNOC) CEO Sultan Al Jaber.

(Sources: Reuters)

• British inflation cooled by more than expected in April, but the slowdown did little to mask a tough outlook for households, with global costs from the Iran war set to hit them harder later this year.
• Britain said on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, that it had secured a trade deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) worth $5Bn a year in the long run, deepening economic ties with allies in a region dealing with the fallout from the Iran war.
• The deal with the GCC, which consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, comes after U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran in February triggered Iranian attacks on other countries in the region, putting strain on energy and food supplies. At a time of increased instability, Britain’s Trade Minister Peter Kyle said the announcement sends a clear signal of confidence, giving UK exporters the certainty they need to plan ahead.
• The British government noted that the deal would be worth £3.7Bn each year in the long term, more than double a previous estimate of £1.6Bn, as the final deal went further on both trade liberalisation and service sector commitments than previously expected. In addition, it will remove 93% of GCC tariffs on British goods, equivalent to the removal of £580Mn worth of tariffs by the deal’s tenth year. Two-thirds of the tariffs will be removed as soon as the deal comes into force.
• Autos, aerospace, electronics, and food and drink are among the sectors expected to benefit, with cereals, cheddar cheese, chocolate, and butter all becoming tariff-free. In return, Britain has lowered tariffs to the GCC, though the countries’ main exports to Britain, oil and gas, are already tariff-free.
• On services, Britain locked in current access to the GCC so businesses could expand without facing new barriers, while Gulf countries can also grow their own service sectors through the deal. The agreement spans trade in goods and services, financial services, digital trade, investment protection, telecommunications, and other areas.
• However, the deal has drawn criticism from campaigners because it does not contain any language around human rights. Tom Wills, director of the Trade Justice Movement, said that by failing to negotiate enforceable human rights protections, the UK had taken “a moral step backwards.”

(Source: Reuters)

• The March quarter earnings season is still underway, and today the spotlight is on real estate stocks, which have produced mixed earnings thus far.
• Relative to the March 2025 quarter, 138 Student Living (138SL) achieved a 56.8% surge in quarterly earnings to $120.74Mn, owing to higher revenues and lower expenses. Buoyed by improved rental rates and maintenance of a 98% average student occupancy rate, total revenues increased by 6.8% to $410.01Mn. Administrative expenses also decreased by 1.6% to $218.18Mn amid enhanced operational discipline, effective cost management, and general efficiency measures across its student housing properties. Consequently, its operating margins improved from 42.2% to 46.8%. A 9.5% decline in finance costs to $67.26Mn and a 64.8% decline in taxation to $3.83Mn also contributed to the stronger profits. Notwithstanding strong earnings, a bulk of current assets is still tied up in a growing $711.80Mn receivables balance, as it remains in talks with The University of the West Indies to resolve its variation claim¹. Talks are at an advanced stage, according to management. 138SL closed at $3.08 on May 20^th, down 2.61% YTD and trades at a P/E of 5.13x below the Main Market Real Estate Average of 6.5x.
• Meanwhile, Sagicor Real Estate X Fund (XFUND) Limited recorded a 2.7% decline in earnings to $391.47Mn, reflecting lower revenues of $2.37Bn (-3.0%), despite notable growth within the group's core hospitality segments. Segment revenues from direct hotel and commercial operations improved by 2.3% to reach $2.30Bn. However, this was countered by a $28.98Mn capital loss, which is a $96.74Mn reversal from March 2025. Total operating expenses were tightly controlled during the quarter (down 4.9% to $1.80Bn), demonstrating improved cost efficiency across the board. This enhanced cost management, alongside resilient core performance, allowed the group to mitigate the falloff in its earnings under challenging operating conditions, including high interest rates, depressed asset valuations and Hurricane Melissa’s fallout. XFUND closed trading at $9.90 yesterday and is up 23.8% YTD and trades at a P/E of 22.5x, far exceeding the Main Market Real Estate Average.
• Lastly, as we’ve previously reported on May 15^th, Kingston Properties Limited (KPREIT) reported a decline 34.2% in earnings to US$658,957, largely due to the absence of fair value and property disposal gains. This was despite rental income rose 31.7% to US$1.82Mn, driven by portfolio expansion, particularly in the UK (+165%), and stable contributions from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Management fees also increased by 26.7%. KPREIT closed at $10.62, is up 13.0% YTD and trades at a P/E of 15.45x.
• Stanley Motta (SML) and Eppley CPFV have yet to release their March Earnings.

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¹According to the company website, the claim refers to compensation demand by 138SL against the campus administration arising from differences in the original 2015 accommodation concession agreement between the parties and the final, “as-built” configuration of Irvine Hall, which changed from intended double rooms to largely single rooms. The claim, which was initiated around 2019-2020, has been subject to long-term negotiations between the two parties.

(Sources: Company Filings via JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Following its meetings on 19 and 20 May 2026, the Bank of Jamaica's (BOJ's) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to maintain the policy rate at 5.50%. The decision was framed against a backdrop of heightened global uncertainty stemming from the deepening conflict in the Middle East, which has driven further increases in key international commodity prices, particularly crude oil.
• The MPC assessed that maintaining the current stance remains appropriate to limit second-round price increases resulting from higher international commodity prices. Annual headline inflation stood at 4.3% at April 2026, in line with March 2026 but above the Bank's projection, while core inflation rose to 4.1% (Mar-26: 4.0%). Prospectively, headline inflation is forecast to trend upward over the June 2026 and September 2026 quarters and breach the 4.0%–6.0% target range, with the extent of the breach contingent on the severity and duration of the conflict.
• Since the Bank's March 2026 assessment, the Middle East conflict has deepened, with more extensive damage to critical oil infrastructure and supply chain disruptions, leaving international fuel prices projected to remain elevated. This is expected to place upward pressure on electricity costs in Jamaica, while domestic gas prices have already risen and may accelerate further, feeding into transport-related inflation and broader second-round price increases across goods and services.
• Nonetheless, headline inflation is forecast to gradually return to the Bank's target range as global oil supplies return to normal levels. However, this is expected to be partly offset by domestic demand pressures, stemming primarily from fiscal spending to support post-Hurricane Melissa rebuilding efforts.
• Even so, inflation risks are skewed to the upside, driven by the potential for a broader Middle East conflict, El Niño-related pressure on agricultural prices, and stronger-than-anticipated post-hurricane recovery spending. Inflation expectations have already begun shifting, with the April 2026 business survey showing 12-month-ahead expectations rising to 7.1% from 6.5%. Weaker consumer purchasing power provides a partial offset on the downside.
• The BOJ also continues to monitor key indicators and stability metrics. Private sector credit growth moderated to 6.5% in the March 2026 quarter (Dec-25: 7.8%), reflecting a slowdown in lending to both businesses (+5.1% vs. +7.5%) and individuals (+7.5% vs. +8.3%). The domestic banking system remains sound with adequate capital and liquidity.
• Real GDP growth for FY2026/27 is projected between 1.0%–3.0%, with risks skewed to the downside reflecting the potential adverse effects of the Middle East conflict on services industries, alongside the drag from higher imported input costs. The negative impact of the conflict on the external accounts is also expected to be significant, though the Bank's strong foreign reserves continue to provide an important buffer, supporting the orderly functioning of the FX market and helping to contain imported inflation.
• Overall, the MPC signalled a cautious but vigilant approach, emphasising its readiness to adjust the monetary policy stance if the Middle East conflict is protracted and results in sustained price increases. The next policy decision announcement is scheduled for 29 June 2026.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• The probability of a super El Niño event in 2026-2027 is rising, with mounting implications for Latin America and the Caribbean. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Climate Prediction Centre issued an El Niño Watch in April, placing a 61% probability on emergence in the May-July window. Furthermore, models are increasingly pointing toward peak sea surface temperature anomalies that would push the event into ‘super’ territory, a threshold passed only five times since 1950.
• El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a natural climate pattern across the Tropical Pacific known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The two different phases represent variations in ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting wind and rainfall patterns.
• For Latin America, El Niño does not affect the region uniformly. The dominant pattern causes droughts across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and the Pantanal, while pushing excess rainfall into the southern cone – southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and north-eastern Argentina.
• For the Caribbean¹, El Niño’s effects are usually secondary compared with LATAM, but they are still significant. The phenomenon often brings hotter temperatures and below-average rainfall, increasing the risk of drought, water shortages and bushfires. Countries, like Jamaica, that depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture can face reduced crop yields and stress on livestock, while low reservoir levels can affect water supply. At the same time, warmer and drier conditions can damage coral reefs through coral bleaching, affecting fisheries and tourism.
• The overarching result is a phenomenon that simultaneously tightens agricultural output, strains hydropower capacity and elevates inflationary pressures. One of the primary transmission channels is through external accounts, given the continued importance of agriculture for exports across much of the region despite modest diversification. This comes at a point when external balances for some countries across the region are already weakening into 2026, leaving less room to absorb a weather-driven export shock.
• A second transmission channel runs through energy, particularly in those countries (e.g. Costa Rica, Colombia) whose electricity generation comes from hydropower. While recent rainfall has supported reservoir levels, these gains could reverse if El Niño emerges, raising energy costs and external pressures.
• Finally, food supply disruptions have an outsized impact on inflation due to the large weight of food in CPI baskets. The 2015–2016 Super El Niño episode is an example of this dynamic, with food inflation outpacing headline rates across the LATAM region. In this cycle, the US–Iran conflict has already raised fuel and fertiliser costs, introducing an initial supply shock that has yet to fully pass through. An El Niño-driven shock in 2026 would compound this dynamic while posing risks of rising food production costs and reduced supply, which has increased the upside risks to inflation and could create more hawkish interest rate trajectories.

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¹Higher vertical wind shear in the Atlantic typically inhibits the development of hurricanes. However, recent trends show that record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures can sometimes counteract this effect, leading to a "tug-of-war" where intense storms can still form despite El Niño.

(Sources: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company and NCBCM Research)

• The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently (May 4, 2026) concluded the Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda (A&B). The authorities warned that A&B must tackle arrears despite falling debt.
• Antigua and Barbuda’s economic expansion continues. Real GDP grew by an estimated 3% in 2025, supported by a pick-up in construction despite slowing tourism activity. Employment has gradually recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and inflation moderated from over 6% (year-average) in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025.
• Additionally, public debt as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined from 101% of GDP in 2020 to an estimated 68% in 2025, aided by an improved fiscal position. However, arrears to the Paris Club¹ creditors and domestic suppliers are significant, and gross financing needs are elevated. The IMF noted that persistent arrears and elevated gross financing needs are constraining access to longer‑term financing and undermining debt sustainability. A&B is therefore being urged to develop and implement a credible and comprehensive strategy for addressing all arrears, broadening financing options, and making space for resilience-building investments. The IMF also noted the need to continue strengthening cash and debt management to prevent future arrears.
• That said, the fiscal position strengthened in 2024–25, reflecting both improved tax collection and one-off factors. The 2025 primary balance is estimated at nearly 5% of GDP, underpinned by higher tax revenues, stronger inflows under the Citizenship-by-Investment Program (CIP), restraint in current spending, and a modest increase in capital spending. However, the CIP has recently come under increased international scrutiny, particularly from the United States (U.S), over concerns about vetting standards and the granting of citizenship without long-term residency requirements. THE IMF noted that continued efforts to strengthen this framework remain important.
• Looking ahead, steady economic expansion is projected to continue, but risks are tilted to the downside amid heightened global uncertainty. Downside risks stem externally from commodity price volatility and a slowdown in major trading partners and, domestically, from capacity constraints weighing on growth. Upside potential could materialise from stronger tourism demand, improved connectivity, and productivity-enhancing reforms.

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¹The Paris Club is an informal group of major creditor nations, including countries such as France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan, that work together to help countries manage and restructure sovereign debt.

(Sources: IMF & NCBCM Research)

• BMI analysts forecast real GDP growth to average 1.7% per year over 2026-2035 for the Bahamas, slightly slower than 2.1% over the previous 10 years. Bahamas’ performance is anticipated to be constrained by structural capacity limits in tourism, slow labour force growth and incomplete public sector reform.
• For 2026, growth is forecasted to come in at 1.9%, a downward revision from the previous 2.2% forecast. The negative impact of the Iran conflict on oil import costs and household purchasing power has driven this. However, the impact will be partially offset by the government's fuel hedges.
• The Bahamas’ fuel hedge is a financial risk-management strategy introduced in partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank in 2020 and later expanded in December 2025 through Bahamas Power and Light (BPL). The hedge locks in fuel prices for part of the country’s oil imports, covering about 2.5 million barrels for 365 days at $70 per barrel, helping shield households, businesses, and public finances from sudden spikes in global oil prices driven by external shocks such as the U.S.-Iran conflict.
• Furthermore, BMI noted that political stability will remain a tailwind for the economy, with centre-left Prime Minister Phillip 'Brave' Davis and his Progressive Liberal Party having comfortably won re-election on May 12^th by securing 33 of 41 seats up for grabs.
• This was the first time in over 30 years that an incumbent had won re-election in The Bahamas, a development that will help to sustain the steady progress that has been made toward returning the public finances to a sounder footing since the pandemic.

(Sources: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company, Fitch Ratings, & NCBCM Research)

• Fed officials are looking at holding rates longer than thought, while also considering rate hikes if inflation remains sticky, according to minutes from the central bank’s April policy meeting released on Wednesday, May 20, 2026.
• The minutes shed light on the Fed's most recent meeting, in which the committee voted to hold rates steady. One official dissented from that decision, favouring a rate cut, while three others said the FOMC should have removed language from its post-meeting statement suggesting the central bank's next move would likely be a rate cut.
• Participants generally judged that continued elevated inflation readings, together with uncertainty related to the duration and economic implications of the Middle East conflict, could necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for longer than previously anticipated.
• At the same time, a majority highlighted that “some policy firming” – Fed speak for rate hikes — would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above the Fed’s 2% goal. According to the minutes, inflation is emerging as the top concern, since recent reports on the job market have shown the unemployment rate falling despite low job creation, suggesting the job market has stabilised.
• Further, concerns remain about a scenario where sustained elevated energy prices combined with tariffs could lead to broader inflation, potentially increasing inflation expectations and creating a tougher trade-off between the Fed’s goals of maintaining maximum employment and stable prices.
• The growing appetite for rate hikes could put the central bank at odds with President Donald Trump, who has demanded rate cuts to boost the economy and lower the interest the U.S. government pays on the national debt.

(Sources: Yahoo Finance & Investopedia)