• ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (EMGL) is expected to submit the Field Development Plan (FDP) for its eighth project in the Stabroek Block, the gas-rich longtail development in the coming weeks, with hopes of securing regulatory approval by the end of 2026. EMGL’s president, Alistair Routledge, made the disclosure at the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo 2026 at the Guyana Marriott Hotel in Georgetown.
• Routledge said, “We’re due to submit a field development plan to the Ministry of Natural Resources in the coming weeks,” adding that the company is nearing completion of the environmental and socio-economic studies required for the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and environmental permitting process, with the aspiration that by the end of this year, the longtail project should be sanctioned.
• Exxon, operator of the Stabroek Block, is currently producing over 900,000 barrels of oil daily from four developments: Liza Phase One, Liza Phase Two, Payara and Yellowtail. While Uaru, Whiptail, and Hammerhead have received government approval, they are not yet producing. Unlike previous developments focused primarily on oil, Longtail will focus on gas production.
• The project will initially operate as a gas cycling development with 1.2 billion cubic feet per day of gas compression capacity. This is equivalent to the total gas compression capacity of the first four projects, and in the early days, it will have a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day of condensate, which BlackRock Midstream describes as extremely light oil, and will be gas export-ready from day one.
• Longtail will involve drilling approximately 24 – 60 production and injection wells, installation, commissioning, and operations of Subsea Umbilicals, Risers, and Flowlines (SURF), and a FPSO configured with gas injection rather than water injection, with subsea equipment installed at a depth of approximately 1,600 – 2,000 metres, located about 200 km from Georgetown in the southeastern portion of the Stabroek Block, with discussions ongoing regarding whether the gas will support offshore projects, the Wales Gas-to-Energy initiative, or the planned second GTE project in Berbice.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• Canada’s trade deficit narrowed in December, with Statistics Canada reporting a C$1.31Bn shortfall, improving from the revised C$2.59Bn deficit in November and undershooting the C$2.0Bn consensus forecast, as stronger export performance supported the external balance.
• Export growth was the primary driver of the improvement, with total exports rising 2.6% to C$65.63Bn, largely reflecting increased shipments of unwrought gold.
• Canada’s export dependence on the United States continued to decline structurally, with U.S.-bound exports accounting for 67.4% of total shipments, down from 76.2% a year earlier and marking the lowest share on record outside the pandemic period, despite a modest 1.1% increase in exports to the U.S. during the month.
• Diversification toward non-U.S. markets remained the dominant narrative, as exports to other countries reached a new record in December and surged 17.0% over 2025, led by gold exports to the United Kingdom alongside growth in select manufacturing segments.
• Bilateral trade dynamics with the United States softened modestly, as imports from the U.S. increased 3.5%, compressing Canada’s merchandise trade surplus with its largest partner to C$5.7Bn from C$6.5Bn in November.
• Trade balances with non-U.S. partners also improved, as imports from countries outside the United States declined 3%, narrowing the deficit with these markets to C$7Bn from C$9Bn, reinforcing the broader rebalancing in trade flows.
• This news release is in line with Canadian PM Mark Carney setting a goal for Canada to double its non-US exports in the next decade. This goal was set given that American tariffs are causing a chill in investment.

(Source: Reuters and AP News)

• Markets are pricing in a further Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike to 1%, potentially as early as March or April, following the central bank’s exit from ultra-loose policy and cumulative tightening that lifted the policy rate to 0.75% in December, a 30-year high.
• A move to 1% could trigger significant household portfolio reallocation, as higher deposit rates incentivise Japanese savers to shift idle cash into interest-bearing bank accounts after decades of near-zero returns.
• Historical behaviour suggests the 0.5% threshold is a key trigger point, with past episodes showing that once policy rates exceed this level, household funds tend to flow rapidly into bank deposits, raising system liquidity held with the BOJ.
• Rising deposit inflows could complicate monetary-policy implementation, as increased reserves at the BOJ may exert downward pressure on money-market rates and hinder the central bank’s ability to guide short-term rates toward its policy target.
• The BOJ’s balance-sheet normalisation adds an additional layer of uncertainty, with the central bank shrinking a balance sheet that expanded roughly fivefold over two decades to about ¥756Tn (US$4.9Tn) following the large-scale stimulus launched in 2013.
• Reserve balances remain elevated at roughly ¥454Tn, though economists estimate the BOJ could reduce reserves to around ¥280Tn without triggering excessive volatility in short-term rates, contingent on future credit growth and bank lending dynamics.
• The transition away from prolonged monetary accommodation creates forecasting challenges, as the scale and speed of potential fund reallocation remain uncertain given Japan’s extended period of aggressive liquidity injections and entrenched low-rate behaviour among households and financial institutions.

(Source: Reuters)

• Hurricane Melissa exacted a toll on the quarterly earnings of TransJamaican Highway (TJH) and Fontana Limited (Fontana), highlighting that the impact of the superstorm’s October 2025 landfall extended across sectors.
• For the December 2025 quarter (Q4 2025), TJH’s net profit slipped 7.7% to US$8.6Mn, primarily driven by lower revenues and higher operating expenses. Revenue declined 2.5% to US$23.74Mn, reflecting the 15-day toll suspension following Hurricane Melissa, which resulted in an estimated revenue loss of approximately US$3.5Mn.
• Its quarterly performance was further dampened by higher operating expenses, which rose 31.4% to US$5.8Mn due to higher amortisation, maintenance activity and consultancy costs. A 43.3% rise in administrative expenses due to hurricane-related relief and recovery initiatives and spending on a Road and Operational Maintenance software system also helped to push up costs.
• For Fontana, Melissa’s impact on its quarterly profits was more pronounced, with earnings falling by 38.7% to $201Mn, despite marginal revenue growth. Hurricane disruptions caused a 16-day closure of its Fairview Montego Bay store, its second-largest location by sales. Its corporate offices also sustained damage, and the Savanna-la-Mar branch faced similar Melissa-induced disruptions.
• In light of the disruption to its operations, Fontana faced lower sales volumes in its Western Stores, operating inefficiencies from shortened hours, and logistics challenges in rebalancing inventory. As a result, revenues only rose by just 5.6% to $2.9Bn, while direct costs outpaced revenues by 7.4% to $1.77Bn. This meant gross profits increased by only 2.8%, and margins narrowed to 38.2% from 39.2%. With melissa sapping revenue growth, operating expenses and finance costs tipped the scales even further. Expenses grew by 22.2% to $840.85Mn, and there was 72.4% increase in finance costs to $73.83Mn.
• Though Melissa put a dent in both companies’ quarterly earnings, TJH's full-year earnings grew by 17% to US$36.6Mn, amid sustained traffic growth and higher t-Tag penetration across the network in the first half of the year.
• Meanwhile, Fontana’s YTD earnings are down 36.5% despite 12.1% revenue growth. Higher operating expenses of $1.66Mn (+22.3%) reflect fixed-cost absorption during store closures, integration costs tied to Monarch locations it acquired, and setup costs for three new Ora concept stores. Finance costs also surged 72.4% due to borrowings to support the Monarch Acquisitions. However, while these weighed on near-term profitability, management emphasised that a portion of the expenses represents strategic growth investments.
• Since the start of the year, TJH’s stock price has increased by 44.5%, while Fontana’s stock price has decreased by 4.8%, to close at $6.66 and $7.42, respectively, on February 17, 2026. At this price, TJH trades at a P/E of 14.4x, below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 21.7x, while Fontana trades at a P/E of 20.6x, above the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 18.5x.

(Sources: Fontana and TJH Financial Release, NCBCM Research)

• December 2025 quarter earnings releases for securities dealers, VM Investments Limited (VMIL) and Barita Investments Limited (BIL) told divergent stories. VMIL’s earnings rebounded, while Barita saw its earnings slip over the same period.
• For VMIL, quarterly earnings increased to $155.8Mn compared to a $91.5Mn loss in the prior-year period as a 44.4% revenue decline was countered by a 64.7% reduction in total expenses. Its lower revenues reflected a downturn in global financial markets that weighed on trading activity and heightened capital market volatility that adversely impacted deal flow. Investor confidence was further tempered by ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty across major developed economies. Meanwhile, its improved cost base was largely attributable to favourable adjustments to credit loss provisions, reflecting strengthened collateral positions across VMIL’s loan portfolio, along with lower management fees.
• However, VMIL’s quarterly improvement was not enough to raise annual earnings, which tumbled by 68.7% to J$173.87Mn. Macroeconomic headwinds, subdued capital markets activity and the absence of a one $422Mn one-off gain from the sale of Carilend¹, which significantly elevated the prior year’s earnings, were the culprits. Looking ahead, VMIL’s management has indicated that it will focus on revenue growth through innovative asset management products, deeper client engagement, and enhanced operational efficiency via greater technology adoption.
• Meanwhile, BIL reported a 62% decline in net profits to J$211Mn for its first quarter ended December 31, 2025, reflecting both weaker revenues (-17.9%) and higher operating expenses (OPEX: +21.5%).
• The decline in revenues was primarily due to lower equity valuations amid softer market conditions. On a positive note, net interest income increased 31%, supported by balance sheet growth. However, non-interest income declined 24%, driven by a reversal of investment gains. In the same breath, OPEX was spurred by lower credit loss reversals relative to the prior year and higher administrative costs. These expenses, however, were partially offset by a 6% reduction in staff expenses.
• Consequently, operating profits fell to J$254.35Mn, from J$675.39Mn, while operating margin declined to 21.6% from 47.0% in the previous corresponding quarter, leading to lower quarterly earnings.
• Despite the quarterly slowdown, BIL has made moves that could raise future earnings. During the quarter, it acquired 100% of JN Fund Managers Limited (JNFM). This is set to strengthen the company’s asset management platform and position it to expand its recurring fee-based revenues across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean. However, value accretion from the acquisition will require disciplined execution to realise revenue and cost synergies.
• Barita also continues to transition its alternative investment portfolio toward development-driven, cash-generating real estate projects. With two major sites advancing through pre-development, the Group is shifting from mark-to-market valuation gains toward more predictable, project-based returns, aligning with its long-term capital deployment strategy.
• Since the start of the year, VMIL and BARITA’s stock prices have decreased by 15.42% and 4.19% to close at $1.81 and $69.01 on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. At this price, VMIL trades at a P/B of 0.88x, below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.11x, while BIL's P/B of 2.36x sits above this sector average.

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¹In 2019, VMIL made a private equity investment in fintech company Carilend.

(Sources: VMIL and BARITA Financial Release)

• As the fifth annual Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo got underway on Tuesday in Georgetown, the country’s President, Dr Irfaan Ali, made clear that his government is eager to partner with neighbouring Suriname to jointly develop natural gas resources.
• President Ali has been pushing for a Guyana- Suriname partnership for years. Since being re-elected in September 2025, the Guyanese leader has been championing a second natural gas project in the county of Berbice, which is at the Suriname border.
• On Tuesday, he again spoke about the Berbice plans, this time emphasising that the second gas-to-energy plant will be built in the county, and that a new deepwater port will spur faster industrial development there.
• However, he remained focused on neighbouring Suriname and an integrated gas project. “We’re hoping that very quickly, we can have some decisions because our investors are waiting on those decisions. We want this partnership,” the Guyanese President said.
• Guyana has about a decade of rapid development in the oil and gas industry and has established itself as a major player globally for its production. Guyana is hoping to build in-country capacity too, to meet local energy demands but also to export across the region, President Ali said at the conference.
• Across the border, new oil and gas developments are taking shape in Suriname. Guyana’s President believes that his country is a solid partner, not just because of proximity but because expansion plans are already taking shape.

(Source: Newsroom Guyana)

• US initial jobless claims fell more than expected, declining by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ended February 14, below the 225,000 consensus forecast. The drop follows a late-January rise to 232,000 and is consistent with a stabilising labour market.
• Federal Reserve officials view labour conditions as steady but fragile. Minutes from the January 27–28 FOMC meeting showed the vast majority of policymakers saw signs of stabilisation, though they also highlighted downside risks, including the possibility that weaker labour demand could push unemployment higher in a low-hiring environment.
• Recent employment gains remain concentrated in defensive sectors, with January job growth largely driven by healthcare and social assistance, suggesting limited breadth and potential vulnerability in the broader labour market.
• Structural and policy headwinds are constraining hiring. Economists pointed to immigration policy restrictions, lingering tariff uncertainty, and the growing impact of artificial intelligence adoption as factors contributing to employer caution.
• Continuing claims increased by 17,000 to 1.869Mn for the week ended February 7, indicating that laid-off workers are facing difficulty securing new employment, despite stable inflows into unemployment benefits.
• Broader labour-market indicators also show emerging slack. The median duration of unemployment is near four-year highs, while recent college graduates are particularly affected by weak hiring and are often excluded from claims data due to limited work history, underscoring underlying softness beneath otherwise stable headline indicators.

(Source: Reuters)

• US unsecured loan balances reached a record high in 2025, rising 10.0% to US$276.0Bn, driven primarily by strong demand from subprime borrowers, according to TransUnion’s Credit Industry Insights Report.
• Borrower participation increased meaningfully, with 26.4Mn consumers holding unsecured loans as of end-December, up from 24.5Mn a year earlier, reflecting expanding reliance on non-collateralised credit.
• Debt consolidation and cost-of-living pressures are key drivers. As interest rates began to ease, many consumers used unsecured loans to refinance credit-card balances, while lower-income households increasingly relied on these products to manage elevated living costs amid weak wage growth.
• Credit-card exposure continues to expand but with tighter risk controls. Total credit-card balances rose 4.0% to US$1.15Tn, though issuers reduced initial credit limits to mitigate risk as lending to lower-income borrowers increased. Delinquencies have also been gradually trending upward.
• Credit growth is expected to normalise in 2026. TransUnion forecasts a 5.7% increase in new unsecured loan originations, signalling a moderation from the stronger post-pandemic volatility in consumer credit demand.
• Mortgage and refinancing activity should improve modestly, with new mortgages projected to grow 4.0% and refinancings up 4.2%, supported by borrowers gaining access to lower rates relative to recent mortgage vintages.

(Source: Reuters)

• The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 decreased by 0.8%, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This contrasts with November and December readings following Hurricane Melissa, where the CPI rose by 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
• The main contributor to the decline in the CPI for January 2026 was the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division, which fell by 2.4%. A 9.9% fall in the index for the class, ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’ and an 8.4% decline in the index of the ‘Ready-made food products’ class were the main drivers. These declines were attributable to lower prices of some agricultural produce, including cabbage, carrots, cucumbers, escallion, sweet peppers and tomatoes. Supplies of these key short-duration crops rebounded in January, likely reflecting in part the efforts by the Ministry of Agriculture to get farming restarted quickly in the aftermath of Melissa through the distribution of seeds, fertilisers, etc.
• Still, the movement in the CPI was moderated by a 0.7% increase in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division. This was due to higher water supply and sewage rates, given the previous disruptions to infrastructure-intensive sectors such as electricity, water supply and waste management, caused by Hurricane Melissa. Additionally, the index of the ‘Education’ division rose by 1.0% due to increased preparatory school fees.
• The annual Point to Point (P2P) inflation rate also fell 0.6 percentage points to 3.9%, for the December 2024 to December 2025 period. As with the monthly figure, the slowdown featured a cooling of the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages' class from 7.1% to 5.7%. On the other hand The ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ increased from (3.5% to 4.6%).
• While it’s still too early to call, the inflation decline seems to defy expectations of a rise in 2026, fuelled by higher electricity costs to cover reconstruction of the grid and demand pressures for construction and related materials to facilitate reconstruction efforts.
• In its December 2025 Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projected average inflation of 7.4% over the period from December 2025 to September 2027. Core inflation was also expected to rise, exceeding the target range by mid-2026. However, given the unexpected decline in January’s reading amid lower food prices and the fact that the December spike stemmed from a supply-side shock, the inflationary impact of Hurricane Melissa could prove to be more temporary than previously anticipated. As such, the BOJ could revise its inflation outlook at its next Monetary Policy Meeting set for February 23, 2026. Nevertheless, expectations are for the BOJ to maintain its current policy rate at 5.75%.

(Sources: STATIN and NCBCM Research)

• For the nine months ending December 2025 (9M 2026), JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) more than doubled its earnings to $4.36Bn (+150.8%), while Proven Group Limited (PROVEN), which has a 20.0% stake in JMMBGL, saw a 39.2% earnings dip to US$1.45Mn amidst Melissa Disruptions.
• JMMBGL’s earnings growth reflected improved funding mix and disciplined capital allocation. These improvements led to a 69.9% increase in pretax earnings from its Banking & Related Services business segment as digital banking services usage and sales productivity increased. Consequently, a 38% surge in Net Interest Income (NII), an 8% rise in fees and commissions, and a 41% jump in fixed income trading gains supported a 23.4% increase in core revenues.
• Meanwhile, the group contained the increase in operating expenses to just 6.4% to J$18.89Bn, reflecting inflationary increases and spending on longer-term strategic initiatives aimed at improving the posture and positioning of the Group¹.
• With revenue significantly outgrowing OPEX, operating profit doubled to $3.56Bn. A similar doubling of the share of profit of associates to $3.48Bn², which countered a 15.3% increase in impairment losses on financial assets and a $1.06Bn increase in tax expenses, also contributed to the group's earnings leap.
• Notwithstanding the growth in JMMBGL’s earnings contributions, hurricane-related disruptions, elevated funding costs, and a slowdown in its manufacturing segment, which weighed on PROVEN’s core operations and caused 39.2% earnings decline for 9M 2026.
• Net operating revenues – which comprise NII, gross profit on manufacturing and property as well as other income – fell 5.4% to US$40.70Mn. NII declined by 19.4% amid elevated funding costs, but the company sees its 6.2% reduction in interest expense as a signal of early cost normalisation. Such a normalisation could support margin expansion into FY2027. Fee and commission income fell 21.7%, due to hurricane-related disruptions to PROVEN’s Cambio operations in Montego Bay. Reduced tourist arrivals and business interruptions dampened transaction volumes and FX trading income in the December quarter. Its Manufacturing operations, led by Roberts Manufacturing in Barbados, also declined by 7.7% to US$13.08Mn. The weight of these declines eroded the impact of a tripling of Net Fair Value Gains to $US4.05Mn, resulting in a negative operating revenue of US$2.66Mn.
• Concurrently, PROVEN’s OPEX rose 7.9%, owing to higher staff costs, depreciation and amortisation, and other operating expenses. As a result, the group had a US$2.66Mn operating loss. Nonetheless, a US$5.66Mn profit contribution from associates like JMMBGL, and, to a lesser extent, Access Financial Services (AFS) significantly cushioned earnings.
• Looking ahead, PROVEN’s management noted that it will continue to execute on strategic priorities that position it for an improved earnings trajectory. Major catalysts include the near-completion of the Sol Harbour and Bahari Phase 1 developments, which are expected to generate approximately US$4.2Mn in profits, primarily in the March 2026 quarter. Management also continues to implement targeted efficiency initiatives set to take effect late FY2026 and into FY2027 to enhance operational leverage and, with it, core operating profit.
• Since the start of the year, PROVEN and JMMB’s stock price has decreased by 17.01% and 12.29% to close at $12.73 and $16.846. At this price, PROVEN trades at a P/B of 0.55x, while JMMB trades at a P/E of 0.53x – both below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.1x.

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¹This includes its digital transformation, standardisation, and centralisation programme, as well as optimising its sales productivity through the continued integration of the sales segments.

²JMMBGL owns a 24.49% interest in Sagicor Financial Company Limited (SFC).

(Sources: PROVEN & JMMB Financial Release, NCBCM Research)