• Guyana has officially become the world’s largest oil producer per capita, a status long predicted since 2021 and now confirmed following the rise in national output to 900,000 barrels per day on November 12, 2025.
• The milestone was confirmed, following the full ramp-up of production across the Stabroek Block developments. The country, with a population of roughly 750,000, now produces more oil per person than any other nation.
• Arthur Deakin, who served as Co-Director of Energy at Americas Market Intelligence, first made the forecast in 2021. He said, “Yellowtail would propel Guyana to be the 23rd largest oil producer in the world and 4th in Latin America,” adding that the project would also make Guyana the world’s largest oil producer per capita.  In 2025, that prediction materialised.
• Being the world’s largest oil producer per capita means the volume of oil produced, when divided by the number of citizens, exceeds that of every other oil-producing country. Guyana’s output now equates to more than one barrel per person per day, an extraordinary ratio that highlights the scale of offshore production relative to its population.
• Guyana has advanced rapidly from producing 120,000 barrels per day just five years ago. More than US$60 billion has been invested to date across seven approved projects in the Stabroek Block. The Uaru and Whiptail developments are expected to begin production in 2026 and 2027, each adding 250,000 barrels per day. Hammerhead will follow in 2029 with 150,000 barrels per day, while the proposed Longtail project remains under review.
• Total output could reach 1.7 million barrels per day by 2030, reinforcing Guyana’s per capita dominance in the global oil industry.

(Source: Reuters)

• Prof. Roger Hosein warned that Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) cannot afford a 10.0% salary increase for public servants, stressing that wage-setting cannot be treated as routine when GDP has fallen almost 20.0% since 2015, non-energy growth remains weak, energy output is declining, reserves are falling, and the country’s macroeconomic space is the tightest it has been in 25 years. He said the long-term health of the economy, not short-term politics, is what protects public servants.
• He cautioned that raising wages without productivity gains or new revenue would sharply strain the fiscal framework, as the wage bill would absorb an increasing share of non-energy revenue, compress the Government’s budget constraint, crowd out capital expenditure, weaken long-run productivity, and potentially force job losses as the State substitutes away from labour through hiring freezes, headcount cuts, or technological replacement.
• Hosein highlighted the enormous arrears burden tied to a 10% settlement, noting that backpay for the entire public service could reach roughly $16Bn once cost of living allowance (COLA) consolidation is included. Even if limited to the Public Services Association (PSA) and National Union of government and Federated Workers (NUGFW), arrears fall between $4Bn and $7Bn, while unresolved arrears across wider State entities, such as T&TEC, could push the total to about $27.0Bn. These numbers represent obligations that would have to be financed through higher debt and reduced State capital injections.
• As such, T&T’s fiscal balance consistently collapses into deficit once wages exceed $7–8Bn, demonstrating a structural expenditure problem in which recurrent spending grows faster than revenue in a stagnant, mature energy-based economy. Rising debt service, from about US$169.0Mn in 2015 to over US$800.0Mn in 2024, further reduces fiscal space and makes a 10% wage increase risky for solvency and employment levels.
• Hosein warned that capital expenditure has already been heavily compressed relative to the wage bill, with wages now over 230.0% of capital expenditure compared with 144% in 2015. Cutting capital spending further to fund a wage increase would undermine the key budget item that supports long-term growth, reduce competitiveness, weaken diversification efforts, lower future revenue elasticity, and worsen pressures on foreign exchange at a time when reserves have fallen from US$9.9Bn in 2015 to about US$4.6Bn in 2025.
• He also noted that higher public-sector wages raise domestic costs, making exports less competitive and imports cheaper, thereby worsening Dutch-disease effects and reducing the country’s ability to earn foreign exchange. In an economy with structurally weaker gas output, a shrinking labour force, rising pension obligations and tightening FX availability, a 10.0% wage increase could destabilise fiscal anchors that protect jobs, public services, and long-run growth.
• Hosein concluded that if the Government insists on the 10.0% increase, it should phase arrears over at least three fiscal years, avoid COLA consolidation, minimise allowance adjustments to prevent permanent cost escalation, and consider partial settlement through non-cash instruments such as leave swaps or HDC-type certificates. These tools could soften the fiscal shock, though they still require careful limits, and he emphasised that solvency, investment, competitiveness, not unaffordable wage obligations, are what safeguard public-sector workers in the long term.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• U.S. economic growth will increase slightly next year, but employment gains will remain sluggish, and the Federal Reserve will slow any further rate cuts, economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics said in the group's year-end forecast survey.
• The survey of 42 professional forecasters, conducted from November 3 to 11, found the median outlook was for growth of 2%, up from 1.8% in a prior October survey and in contrast to a growth rate of only 1.3% projected in June. Increased personal spending and business investment are seen driving growth higher, offset by what the panel, in a near consensus, said would be a drag on growth of a quarter of a percentage point or more from the Trump administration's new import taxes.
• "Respondents cite 'tariff impacts' as the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook, considering both probability of occurrence and potential impact," the survey reported. Tougher immigration enforcement was also seen as depressing growth, with stronger productivity seen as the most likely factor to drive growth higher than expected.
• Inflation is expected to end the year at 2.9%, slightly below the 3% predicted in the October survey, and fall only slightly to 2.6% next year, with tariffs seen responsible for anywhere from a quarter of a percentage point to nearly three-quarters of a percentage point of that.
• Job growth is seen remaining modest by historical standards, at around 64,000 per month, faster than what is expected at the end of this year but well below recent norms. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain there through the year. With sticky inflation and only a slight further increase in unemployment, the Fed is seen approving a quarter-point interest rate cut in December but then reducing rates by only another half-point next year, closing in on what is considered a roughly neutral rate for monetary policy.

(Source: Reuters)

• Global ratings agency Moody's affirmed the United Kingdom's Aa3 rating on Friday, November 21, 2025, citing the significant credit strength of the world's sixth-biggest economy and the government's commitment to reducing the large budget deficit. The agency maintained the country's outlook at "stable".
• The rating affirmation incorporates expectations of fiscal measures consistent with the government-defined fiscal rules in the upcoming 2026 budget due to be presented on 26 November, which will help to keep the cost of debt moderate.
• Finance minister Rachel Reeves, in her second annual budget, is expected by economists to raise taxes by 20 billion to 30 billion pounds to keep her budget goals on track. Reeves has vowed to end borrowing to fund day-to-day spending by 2029-30, although the government will continue to borrow significantly for long-term investment projects.
• Official data released earlier on Friday showed that public borrowing in the first six months of the 2025-26 tax year was 10 billion pounds higher than the country's budget watchdog had predicted at the time of Reeves' last budget update in March.
• The 117 billion pounds of borrowing was the highest in nominal terms since 2020, when the government spent heavily during the COVID-19 pandemic, causing public debt to lurch higher.

(Source: Reuters)

• Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised its Outlook to Stable from Positive.
• The Outlook revision reflects the significant damage inflicted on Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa, which we expect to lead to an economic contraction and require significant reconstruction costs. Fitch expects the economy to contract in 2025, with significant uncertainties around the pace of recovery, given adverse effects that could linger for key sectors like tourism, agriculture and mining. Economic contraction and fiscal deficits are expected to interrupt the prior strong downward trend in government debt/GDP, which is still above the 'BB' median and vulnerable to changes in the exchange and interest rates.
• The rating affirmation and Stable Outlook also reflect mitigating factors to the major hurricane shock, including insurance and contingency funds (combined totals at nearly US$250Mn), multilateral lines of credit (at nearly US$384Mn), and expected large private insurance flows (estimated insured damages range from US$1Bn-US$2.5Bn.
• Additionally, Fitch expects Jamaica's foreign reserve position to remain healthy, aided by increased remittance inflows, strong relations with international financial institutions and a benign debt amortisation profile for the next few years. Despite considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of Hurricane Melissa, Fitch sees headroom at the current rating to accommodate negative economic growth and fiscal metric implications.
• Fitch projects a 1.5% economic contraction in 2025 with a modest 1.8% rebound in 2026; tourism receipts may fall ~15% annually and could worsen if major hotels stay closed past Feb-2026, though rising remittances (16% of GDP in 2024) will partly offset losses. The government’s suspension of the Fiscal Responsibility Law will push the fiscal balance from a 0.2% surplus in FY2024 to a 3.2% deficit in FY2025 and wider in FY2026 due to reconstruction, driving debt/GDP up toward ~68% by end-2026.
• The current account is expected to shift from a 3.1% surplus in 2024 to a deficit in 2026 as tourism and mining weaken while imports surge, though Jamaica’s floating FX regime and strong reserves (6.6 months of external payments) offer buffers. Jamaica’s BB- rating is underpinned by strong governance indicators, moderate inflation, and past fiscal reforms that cut debt from 135% in 2012 to 64.7% in FY2024, though crime and climate-related storm and flood risks remain key structural challenges.
• A downgrade could occur if Jamaica experiences a significantly weaker or slower-than-expected post-hurricane economic recovery, or if new external shocks cause a substantial deterioration in public finances or external liquidity.
• However, an upgrade could occur if the government achieves a sustained decline in debt-to-GDP and interest burdens, and if economic damages are lower or the recovery is faster than currently expected.

(Source: Fitch Ratings)

• The World Bank, in coordination with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), estimates that the physical damage to Jamaica caused by Hurricane Melissa totals US$8.8Bn – equivalent to 41% of the country’s 2024 GDP – making it the costliest hurricane in Jamaica’s recorded history.
• The Global Rapid Damage Estimation (GRADE), conducted immediately after the hurricane, assessed physical damage across residential, non-residential, infrastructure, and agricultural sectors. It does not include broader economic losses, which are expected to be even more significant. This assessment will inform a more detailed evaluation of damages and economic losses by sectors as part of a collaboration with the Inter-American Development Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and under the leadership of the Planning Institute of Jamaica.
• According to the preliminary findings, 41% of the assessed damages were to residential buildings, 33% to infrastructure, 21% to non-residential buildings, and 5% to the agriculture sector, including livestock and related infrastructure. While physical damage to agriculture is comparatively lower, the sector is expected to face significant economic losses.
• “The scale of damage caused by Hurricane Melissa demands a fast, coordinated, and evidence-based response,” said Anabel González, IDB Vice President for Countries and Regional Integration.
• Jamaica’s comprehensive disaster risk financing system has positioned the country to respond to a range of impacts using multiple financial instruments. A disaster of this magnitude, however, will require scaled-up and well-coordinated efforts and partnerships. The World Bank and the IDB are supporting the Government of Jamaica through contingent financing, technical assistance – including mechanisms like GRADE – and long-term support to coordinate resilient recovery and reconstruction.
• The GRADE methodology provides an independent, rapid estimation of physical post-disaster damage, offering an initial sector-by-sector quantification of a disaster’s severity. The GRADE report for Jamaica was conducted and financially supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the Ministry of Finance of Japan, through the World Bank program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries, in collaboration with the World Bank.

(Sources: World Bank)

• Main Market Financial Service players, Barita Investments Limited (BIL) and JMMBG Group Limited (JMMBGL) had contrasting earnings performances for the September Quarter. BIL reported Q4 earnings of $763.41Mn (down 17.9% year over year), due to a falloff in net operating revenues, while JMMBGL earnings climbed on the back of higher operating revenues and a higher share of profits.
• Despite higher Net Interest Income (NII) and fees and commissions, BIL’s operating revenues declined by 25.9%, reflecting a sharp decline in gains on investments. NII increased by 5% to $417.65Mn, as it deployed proceeds from its recent bond into higher-yielding opportunities in its investment portfolio. Fees and commissions also increased (+36.5%), primarily driven by higher investment banking fees and expansion in asset management. However, this growth was offset by markedly weaker gains from investments (-71.3%).
• Buoyed by improved spread and effective cost of funds management, JMMBGL also saw its NII grow (+50.8% to $1.32Bn). Fees and Commission rose by 20.6% to J$247.63Mn, owing to its growing off-balance sheet solutions, such as unit trusts, pension funds, and money market funds. Unlike BIL, JMMBGL also had a 39.2% increase in gains on investments, which contributed to its operating revenue increase. Beyond operating revenues, the company also had a 42.7% increase in share of profit from its associate, mainly due to its 23% share in Sagicor Financial Company, which also boosted earnings.
• Both companies also had differing results regarding cost containment. BIL cut its quarterly operating expenses by 21.7% to $1.40Bn, driven by a decrease in expected credit loss, which helped to cushion the impact of the revenue decline. Notwithstanding the savings, its cost-to-Income (C/I) ratio increased to 63.9% (up from 60.5% in 2024). Conversely, inflationary increases and strategic spending drove higher operating expenses of $0.30Bn (+5.4%) for JMMBGL, albeit not enough to prevent an improvement in cost-to-income ratio from 97.8% to 76.3% YoY.
• Despite the divergent quarterly performances, the outlooks for both companies remain stable within the context of the current interest rate environment. However, there are risks to their financial performance due to the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which could generate inflationary pressures. Rising domestic prices cast doubt on the possibility of near-term rate cuts, which could weaken net interest income. Melissa’s economic fallout could also spill over into the stock market and lead to reduced trading gains. For JMMB, there is also the potential for an increase in non-performing loans arising from the devastation in western Jamaica and its impact on borrower debt servicing ability.
• Barita's stock has increased 6.0% year-to-date, closing at J$77.93 on Thursday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.7x, which is above the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.2x. Meanwhile, JMMB’s stock has decreased 23.4% year-to-date, closing at J$17.08 at Thursday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/B) ratio of 0.5x, which is also lower than the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.2x

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation and reported that the Dominican Republic continues to show strong economic fundamentals, manageable risks, and enough policy flexibility to respond to adverse scenarios. While the detailed technical report is still pending approval, the IMF released an official statement outlining the country’s current performance and expectations for the coming years.
• According to the Fund, the Dominican economy slowed toward the end of 2024 and during the first half of 2025 due to rising global uncertainty and tighter international financial conditions. However, recent indicators point to a gradual recovery supported by expansive fiscal and monetary measures. Credit activity, exports, and tourism have strengthened, and inflation remains under control, with an estimated average of 3.7% for 2025.
• Looking ahead, the IMF projects economic growth of 4.5% in 2026, bringing the country closer to its long-term trend of around 5%. The current account deficit is expected to stay near 2.5% of GDP and be fully financed by foreign direct investment, underscoring sustained investor confidence.
• Although external risks continue to outweigh positive factors, driven by global uncertainty, shifts in financial conditions, and vulnerability to natural disasters, the IMF emphasised that the Dominican Republic is in a strong position to handle potential shocks thanks to solid macroeconomic foundations, adequate international reserves, a stable banking system, and room to apply countercyclical policies.
• That said, the Fund stressed the importance of advancing structural reforms. It encouraged the government to move forward with tax reform aimed at increasing revenue by reducing generalised subsidies while protecting social spending, and to adopt a medium-term revenue strategy as the framework for broader fiscal changes. It also highlighted the need to fully implement the Electricity Pact to reduce sector losses and lower fiscal pressure. Improvements in governance, the labour market, and social security, aligned with the Meta 2036 plan, remain essential, as does increased investment in infrastructure, education, and health to support more inclusive and competitive growth.
• Finally, the IMF described the Central Bank’s monetary policy as appropriate and recommended maintaining exchange rate flexibility, limiting foreign exchange intervention to significant shocks, strengthening the monetary transmission mechanism, and gradually phasing out extraordinary liquidity measures. It also noted that the financial system remains sound with low systemic risks, encouraging continued progress in regulation and supervision, the implementation of Basel II and III standards, and further improvements in anti–money laundering and counter-terrorism financing policies.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• U.S. job growth accelerated in September, but the unemployment rate increased to a four-year high of 4.4%. The August payroll data was also revised to show employers shedding jobs for the second time this year as employers navigate an uncertain environment.
• The increase in the jobless rate to the highest level since October 2021, reported by the Labour Department in its closely watched employment report on Thursday was from 4.3% in August and reflected more people entering the labour market in search of work. Other data from the Labour Department showed layoffs remained low in mid-November, suggesting the labour market remained in a holding pattern.
• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 jobs after a downwardly revised 4,000 drop in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 50,000 jobs would be added after a previously reported 22,000 gain in August.
• The report was initially due on October 3 but was delayed by the 43-day shutdown of the government. The longest shutdown in history has forced the BLS to cancel the release of October's report, as no data was collected for the household survey to calculate the unemployment rate for that month. October nonfarm payrolls will instead be combined with November's employment report, now due on December 16, the BLS said.
• The labour market has lost significant momentum this year, as evidenced by sharp downward revisions to non-farm payroll counts. Economists and policymakers blame the slowdown on reduced supply and demand for workers. Heading into the economic data blackout, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) had estimated that about 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously reported. A reduction in immigration that started during the final year of former President Joe Biden's term and accelerated under President Donald Trump's administration has depleted labour supply.
• Some economists believed the September employment report could still influence the Federal Reserve's December 9-10 policy meeting. U.S. central bank officials will not have November's report in hand at that meeting as the release date has been pushed to December 16 from December 5. Minutes of the Fed's October 28-29 meeting published on Wednesday showed many policymakers cautioned that lowering borrowing costs further could risk undermining the fight to quell inflation.
• The rising popularity of artificial intelligence is also eroding demand for labour, with most of the hit landing on entry-level positions, and blocking recent college graduates out of work. Economists said AI was fueling jobless economic growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• S. existing home sales increased in October as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates, though rising unemployment and high home prices remain a constraint for the housing market.
• Home sales rose 1.2% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10Mn units, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would rise to a rate of 4.08Mn units. Home sales advanced 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
• Mortgage rates decreased when the Federal Reserve resumed its interest rate cuts, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. They have, however, stopped their decline as U.S. central bank officials have signaled a reluctance to lower rates again next month. Labour market stagnation is also sidelining potential homebuyers.
• Lack of affordable housing has become a political hot-button issue. President Donald Trump this month suggested a 50-year mortgage to make housing affordable, an idea that was panned by some of his supporters and housing market experts who argued it would result in homeowners paying more in interest and taking longer to build equity. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) this month estimated the median age of first-time buyers was 40. The typical homebuyer in the 1980s was in their late 20s, the NAR said.
• The inventory of existing homes last month increased 10.9% to 1.52Mn units from a year ago. It, however, remains below the levels that prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic. The median existing home price last month increased 2.1% from a year ago to $415,200. At October's sales pace, it would take 4.4 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 4.1 months a year ago.

(Source: Reuters)