• Threats to the global economic order have come at a furious pace during President Donald Trump's first eight months in office – from a massive tariff shock to a battle for control of the Federal Reserve.
• However, the global economy has kept growing, stock prices have surged, and inflation fears remain muted.
• While many players worry that things could still unravel given the right spark, it is a far cry from the most dour predictions early in Trump's term, when recession odds soared, markets plummeted, and headlines even fretted over the cancellation of Christmas in a collapse of global trade.
• "The global economy continues to exhibit considerable resilience amid heightened policy and political uncertainty," BNP Paribas economists wrote recently, attributing it to "supportive financial conditions, robust household and corporate balance sheets, the promise of an AI-driven productivity boost, and lower energy prices, among other factors." While the landscape remains in flux, the accommodation shown by U.S. trading partners threatened with sky-high tariffs resulted in more modest levies that are being shared by exporters, importers and consumers in what economists feel has become a manageable distribution.
• Meanwhile, Trump's attempts to oust the Fed chair and fire one of its governors have so far failed, and financial markets appear willing to ignore the risk of rising White House influence over monetary policy until it happens.
• Indeed, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has fallen from around 4.6% when Trump took office to around 4.1%. While that might reflect growth doubts, it is not what would happen if global investors were losing faith in the U.S., the Fed's independence or the long-term path of U.S. inflation. The Fed is now comfortable enough about meeting its inflation target that it cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points this week.
• China's central bank kept a key interest rate unchanged due to resilient exports and a stock market rally, refraining from new stimulus. Meanwhile, the euro zone exceeded expectations, prompting the ECB to raise its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 0.9%.
• But the sense that the current benign situation is not built on firm foundations lingers. Early signs of the hit to exporters are being seen from Japan to Germany. Notably, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warned that tariff effects are taking time to surface and new U.S. policies may emerge.
• Others see investor complacency, with U.S. growth concentrated in AI-driven investment and high-end consumers, while housing is weak, hiring is low, and Trump’s policies could have long-term effects. Some investors warn that markets may not reflect underlying realities despite record highs.

(Source: Reuters)

• Blue Power Group Limited (BPOW) opened its 2025 financial year on a weaker footing, posting a steep 41.4% decline in earnings to J$28.42Mn for the three months ended July 31, 2025 (Q1 FY2025). Higher indirect costs and, to a lesser extent, softer revenues were the primary drivers of the falloff in profits.
• Revenues were broadly flat (-0.9%) at J$231.70Mn (down 0.9% YoY) compared to J$233.88Mn in Q1 FY2024. The sales mix continued to tilt towards value-priced bath and laundry soaps, constraining topline growth.
• Cost pressures intensified with direct costs rising by 11.1% YoY to J$153.83Mn, cutting gross profit by 18.4% YoY to J$77.87Mn. There was an accompanying compression in the gross profit margin to 33.6% from 40.8% in Q1 FY2024. Higher raw material costs, amplified by 40.0% CET on essential imports under CARICOM trade rules, helped to compress gross margins.
• Operating expenses surged, exacerbating the impact of higher production costs. Administrative and other costs increased by 30.5% YoY to J$68.30Mn, further eroding profitability. This outweighed gains from other income (J$5.09Mn vs J$2.93Mn) and limited impairment charges, resulting in operating profit plunging 65.5% YoY to J$15.73Mn.
• That said, non-operating items offered some cushion. Finance income jumped 50.8% to J$12.32Mn, while the share of profit from its associate Lumber Depot Limited contributed J$6.24Mn (down from J$7.44Mn). However, after taxation of J$5.32Mn (vs J$11.49Mn), net profit landed at J$28.42Mn, well below the prior year’s outturn.
• Management remains optimistic, noting that Blue Power continues to lead the local bar soap market and is pushing into premium bath soaps with skincare and beauty features as part of its product innovation strategy.
• BPOW’s stock price has declined by 16.9% year-to-date, closing at $3.98 as at Thursday. At this price, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 19.9x, which is above the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector average of 20.99x.

(Sources: Blue Power Group Ltd. Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• ExxonMobil Guyana continues to deepen its commitment to local content and workforce development, investing heavily in Guyanese businesses, training, and industrial capacity. Since beginning operations in 2015, ExxonMobil and its contractors have spent over US$2.9Bn with local businesses. In the first half of 2025 alone, US$419Mn (approximately GY$87Bn) was directed to 1,800 Guyanese vendors, demonstrating a strong focus on supporting local industry.
• This year also marked a milestone with the launch of in-country fabrication at the Vreed-en-Hoop Shore Base Inc. (VEHSI), including the production of quad joints and Pipeline End Terminations (PLETs), a step that enhances Guyana’s industrial capabilities.
• As at mid-2025, the company and its contractors employ more than 6,200 Guyanese, representing 70% of the oil-and-gas workforce. Women make up one-third of employees, and 1,800 Guyanese are working offshore. In addition, the workforce has received over 370,000 hours of training in leadership, technical skills, professional development, and health, safety, and security protocols.
• Alistair Routledge, President of ExxonMobil Guyana, noted, “We are proud of the progress we’ve made in building local talent. Seeing more Guyanese take on key roles in the oil-and-gas industry is a clear sign that our commitment to capacity building is working.” Looking ahead, the Guyana Technical Training College Inc. (GTTCI), supported financially by ExxonMobil, the Stabroek Block co-venturers, and the government, will welcome its first cohort of locally trained students in October 2025, a landmark in technical education.
• ExxonMobil’s internship programme is also yielding tangible results. Of the inaugural class, five interns have already joined the company, while the 2025 programme continues to provide young Guyanese with meaningful opportunities in the oil-and-gas sector. These initiatives reflect ExxonMobil Guyana’s ongoing effort to foster local expertise, strengthen the domestic workforce, and contribute to the sustainable growth of Guyana’s oil-and-gas industry.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• The cooperation between Suriname and the World Bank has been given a new impetus, with a special focus on the water, energy and mining sectors. Minister David Abiamofo of Natural Resources (NH) received a delegation led by Diletta Doretti, Country Representative for Guyana and Suriname.
• During the meeting, Abiamofo gave an overview of the current programs and challenges within his ministry. Among other things, he pointed to the urgent replacement of the outdated drinking water distribution network in Paramaribo and the implementation of projects such as EMSAGS (Emphasis on Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining) and GEFGOLD (Global Environment Facility), which focus on the formalisation of small-scale gold mining and the phasing out of mercury.
• Cooperation with international partners was also discussed. For example, Suriname is working with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which implements the JET-JP programme, among others, to develop financing-ready plans for a just energy transition domestically.
• An important agenda item was the Suriname Competitiveness and Sector Diversification (SCSD) Project. This project finances the strengthening of governance, transparency and administration in the mining sector, including the establishment of the Minerals Authority Suriname (DAS).
• Additionally, Suriname and the World Bank took another important step in their development cooperation earlier this year. The Suriname Preparedness and Enhancing Resilient Communities Project were approved by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors in late February. Aimed at strengthening Suriname’s resilience to disasters, the US$22.2Mn initiative is the first to be financed by the International Development Association (IDA), since the country joined this World Bank institution in October 2024.

(Sources: Suriname Herald & the World Bank)

• The United States relies more heavily on imports from the European Union (EU) than commonly assumed, with the bloc surpassing China in both total value and the number of goods, according to a study from Germany's IW economic institute.
• That dependence has grown significantly over the past 15 years, with the number of product groups in which at least 50% of imports came from the EU rising to over 3,100 last year, from more than 2,600 in 2010, according to IW.
• The findings suggest EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could have had a stronger hand in tariff talks with Washington that led to a baseline rate of 15% on most EU goods, it said.
• The total import value of those goods, which include chemical products, electrical goods, machinery and equipment, reached $287Bn, nearly 2.5 times more than in 2010. By comparison, China last year accounted for 2,925 of those product groups, with a total value of $247Bn.
• U.S. dependence on China has decreased significantly over time in the course of an obvious de-risking process, said IW. As a last resort, the EU could target goods critical to the U.S. economy for export restrictions, the institute said.
• While trade data alone cannot fully capture how essential these goods are to U.S. buyers, the study "can be used to make it clear to the Americans that if they continue to raise tariffs, they will be shooting themselves in the foot", said co-author Samina Sultan.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates in October even if Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of aggressive monetary easing, wins the ruling party's leadership race and becomes the next premier, former central bank executive Tomoyuki Shimoda noted on Thursday.
• Seen as a leading candidate to win the race on October 4, Takaichi stands out for her vocal opposition to the BoJ's rate hikes and her calls to ramp up spending to reflate the economy.
• The prospect of her becoming Japan's next prime minister has led some market players to buy yen and Japanese government bonds on the view that it could discourage the BoJ from hiking rates. But Shimoda, who has experience serving at the BoJ's monetary affairs department, expects the outcome of the leadership race, including a possible victory by Takaichi, to have a limited impact on monetary policy.
• "While she could advocate bigger fiscal spending, I doubt Takaichi can pursue policies that could weaken the yen," Shimoda told Reuters in an interview. A weak yen gives exports a boost, but it has been a source of concern for policymakers because it lifts import costs and has been a factor in inflation staying well above the BoJ's 2% target.
• A yen falling below $150 to the dollar may also draw complaints from the U.S. administration, which is pursuing a weak-dollar policy that would give U.S. exports a boost, Shimoda said. The BoJ will likely raise rates at its October 29-30 meeting if stock prices stay firm and its "tankan" business sentiment survey, due on October 1, does not worsen much, he said.
• The BoJ exited its massive, decade-long stimulus last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January on the view that Japan was on the cusp of durably achieving its 2% inflation target. With inflation staying above 2% for well over three years, the BoJ has signalled its readiness to keep hiking rates.
• The yen's movements have historically had a major impact on BoJ decisions. Its exit from ultra-loose policy and a hike in rates to 0.25% last year came at a time when the yen's plunge to nearly two-decade lows drew political calls for higher rates

(Source: Reuters)

• Bolstered by topline growth, Main Event Entertainment Group Limited (MEEG) reported net profit of J$47.13Mn for the third quarter ended July 31, 2025 (Q3 2025).
• Revenues climbed 43.6% year-over-year (YoY) to J$632.14Mn, driven by the success of a proprietary event that helped offset weaker performance in its core business line. In tandem with the revenue increase, direct costs rose 55.5%, pushing gross profit up 30.1% YoY to J$267.61Mn. However, the gross profit margin contracted to 42.3% from 46.7% in Q3 2024 as direct cost growth outpaced revenue gains.
• Operating expenses (Opex) grew 23.7%, led by a 15.0% rise in administrative and general expenses, as spending increased to support the scaling of new business initiatives. However, with revenue growth far outpacing the growth in Opex, earnings rebounded during the quarter.
• That said, despite a profitable Q3, year-to-date (9M 2025) earnings fell 25.2%, reflecting weak performance in the first half (down 47.0% YoY). Notably, 42.3% of the nine-month net profit was generated in Q3, which helped cushion earnings from the impact of its weak first half.
• Year-to-date revenue total $1.52Bn, representing a 8% $1.43Mn in the prior corresponding period, supported by modest gains from M-Style Décor and Multimedia services. However, revenue from the core Entertainment and Promotions segment remains below prior-year levels.
• The company has expressed plans to use its owned events as a key revenue growth driver. These shifts could allow MEEG to see some levels of recovery in coming quarters, particularly in light of the positive impact a proprietary event had on Q3 earnings.
• In spite of the year-to-date lag in earnings, MEEG has prioritised innovation through digital transformation as one of the company’s key strategic initiatives going forward. The company is set to invest in digital tools, equipment and platforms that will enhance customer engagement, streamline operations, and create cutting-edge entertainment experiences. These initiatives will likely enhance attendee engagement, offering interactive environments and personalised experiences, which are expected to drive event market growth.
• MEEG’s stock price has declined by 28.6% year-to-date, closing at $8.35 as at Wednesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 83.5x, which is above the Junior Market Sector average of 28.51x.

(Sources: Main Event Entertainment Group Ltd. Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• The Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) has identified the expansion into emerging markets as a key strategic priority for 2025, with particular focus on Latin America.
• Tourism Director Donovan White announced the initiative during a press conference at JTB’s New Kingston office to launch the Jamaica Product Exchange (JAPEX) 2025. JAPEX is a collaborative effort between the JTB and the Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association (JHTA) and is positioned as a cornerstone of Jamaica’s tourism growth strategy.
• White noted that Jamaica’s tourism sector cannot rely solely on its existing customer base if it is to achieve sustained growth. Therefore, as part of this strategy, the JTB has institutionalised efforts to grow arrivals from developing economies, with 17 Latin American markets actively targeted. Collectively, these markets represent a population of over 600 million—nearly double the size of the United States, Jamaica’s largest source market.
• This strategic shift is taking place against the backdrop of softer performance in key source markets, with stopover arrivals from the U.S. and Canada both contracting by 3.1% in the first half of 2025 and arrivals out of Europe fell by 7.1%. Of note, arrivals from South American markets offset the contraction, with stopovers increasing by 77.2% over the same period.
• The JTB is also exploring new opportunities in the Indian market as well as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, further diversifying its long-term growth drivers.
• JAPEX was highlighted as a critical platform for strengthening Jamaica’s global tourism profile. The trade show convenes international buyers, local suppliers, businesses, and stakeholders, providing opportunities for partnerships and market development. The 2025 edition will be held from September 21–24 at the Montego Bay Convention Centre under the theme “JAPEX 2025: Ready, Set, Go!”.
• In addition to business meetings, international participants will engage in destination immersions, site visits, and product inspections, ensuring they depart with a clear understanding of Jamaica’s offerings and investment potential.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The newly appointed governor of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT), Larry Howai, has noted that the interest rate “will have to go up,” suggesting that ongoing negative interest-rate differentials with the U.S. discourage the repatriation of earnings to Trinidad and Tobago, exacerbating ongoing foreign exchange (FX) shortages on the island.
• While he did not specify the magnitude or timing of the increase, Fitch Solutions anticipates that the CBTT will raise the policy rate to approximately 5.50%-6.00% through 2026 as the U.S. Fed begins its easing cycle towards 3.50% over the same period. Historically, the policy rate differential averaged just under 250bps from 2010 to 2025, and Fitch anticipates a return to this stance.
• Howai outlined several possible non-monetary initiatives to address imbalances in the FX market, including tighter FX management, credit controls on consumer lending to reduce domestic consumption, and constraints on liquidity, many of which would likely require legislative approval.
• While Governor Howai suggested unequivocally that the central bank would adjust the policy rate to counter capital outflows and stabilise the domestic foreign-exchange market, he emphasised that this was merely an introductory discussion. That said, his announcement marks a notable shift in a monetary policy stance that has remained rigid in the face of inflation, with the policy rate held steady at 3.50% since March 2020.
• Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) maintains a de facto peg^[1] of its local currency against the US dollar (USD), leveraging large foreign-exchange interventions in the domestic market to stabilise the rate and reduce imported inflation. Despite reports that the T&T dollar is overvalued at the current pegged rate of TTD6.77 per USD, Howai asserted that changes to its exchange-rate regime were outside the bank’s mandate and would be left to elected policymakers, with the CBTT instead providing data and analytics to policymakers to assist their decision-making.
• However, the government has rejected calls to devalue the currency, with Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo insisting that any devaluation of the TTD would threaten inflation and stifle economic activity, especially in industries which use imported goods.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

^[1] A de facto peg refers to a situation where a country's exchange rate is not officially fixed (pegged) to another currency, but in practice, it behaves as if it is.

• In an extraordinary session on Monday, September 15, 2025, the Senate of the Dominican Republic urgently approved an amendment to Law 90-24, allowing the Executive Branch to issue and place public debt securities. The amendment raised the public debt ceiling to RD$361.618 billion, adding over RD$10 billion to the previously authorised limit. 
• Law 90-24 established the fiscal rule and was approved by Congress in July 2024. It established a real expenditure growth cap of 3% (7% in nominal terms) and a debt anchor of 40% of GDP by 2035.
• The Government, through President Luis Abinader, justified the measure as part of a fiscal policy "counter-cyclical" aimed at mitigating the effects of the international situation, boosting the economy and guaranteeing sustainability in public finances.
• The amendment raises the debt ceiling from RD$350Bn to RD$361.618Bn, adding over RD$10Bn to the previously authorised limit. Despite intense debate and opposition from Senator Edward Espíritusanto, who criticised the measure as “financial improvisation” and a growing reliance on debt, the bill passed with a majority vote.
• Currently, the Dominican Republic’s fiscal strength reflects improvements in fiscal deficit and debt trends since the pandemic. However, it still faces a shallow revenue base and high exposure to foreign-currency borrowing, which contributes to weaker debt affordability metrics relative to peers. The sovereign debt level in absolute terms and interest burdens are high relative to government revenue.
• That said, the share of foreign currency debt continues to decline gradually, through greater issuance of global peso-linked bonds in recent years.

(Sources: Dominican Today, Moody’s Investors Service & Fitch Ratings)