• The United States (U.S.) has moved forward with reactivating shuttered military installations in Panama and Puerto Rico to increase its regional footprint. However, efforts to do the same in Ecuador failed after voters turned down the proposal in a referendum.
• American forces have resumed operations at Fort Sherman in Panama, a site dormant since the U.S. handed over the Panama Canal Zone in 1999. The drills build on a bilateral security pact that allows shared training to combat threats like organised crime. Panama’s president confirmed the activities target no specific neighbour, though they coincide with U.S. naval deployments in the area.
• In Puerto Rico, the Roosevelt Roads Naval Station in Ceiba has reopened after two decades offline. The base, once central to Caribbean operations, closed in 2004 amid local opposition to bombing runs on Vieques (an Island off Puerto Rico's eastern coast) that caused environmental damage and health issues. Now, construction teams have resurfaced runways and expanded facilities, enabling air and sea missions. U.S. officials operate from five sites across the island as part of a strategy to monitor nearby waters. Puerto Rican groups protested the revival, citing risks of the territory serving as a staging point for actions against Venezuela.
• However, Ecuador presented a different outcome. Leaders there discussed reinstating a U.S. air base at Manta, which American forces left in 2009 after a constitutional ban on foreign militaries. President Daniel Noboa backed the idea for anti-drug efforts, but citizens voted against it. The rejection halts U.S. access, though some training agreements remain in place.
• These steps show U.S. priorities in curbing narcotics flows and responding to Venezuelan instability. Eight warships and aircraft now patrol the Caribbean, with Panama and Puerto Rico providing key logistics. Analysts note the buildup echoes Cold War postures, raising concerns over national autonomy in Latin America. The Pentagon frames the actions as cooperative, yet critics argue they could strain ties with nations wary of external involvement.

(Source: Tico Times)

• Suriname has reached a major milestone toward its first offshore gas production in 2030. President Jennifer Simons announced that the Sloanea-1 gas field in Block 52 has been officially declared economically feasible, following consultations with Staatsolie and Petronas.
• The approval of the commercial field marks a turning point for Suriname's energy sector. With the green light from Staatsolie and Petronas, Suriname is on track for a Final Investment Decision¹ (FID) in the second half of 2026. If this decision is made, production could begin in 2030. Under the partnership, Petronas holds an 80% stake, while Staatsloie, through its subsidiary, Paradise Oil Company, holds the remaining 20%.
• According to the president, the approval means that the recoverable gas volume has been determined and that the project is economically viable. Petronas Suriname is now working on a full development plan, which must first be approved by Staatsolie before the final FID can be issued.
• The Block 52 project is unique for the region. It will be the first large-scale gas development in the Caribbean with a floating liquefied gas production facility. This positions Suriname as a potential energy hub for the surrounding area, strengthening the country's role in the regional energy transition.
• Furthermore, the development of the gas field offers Suriname the opportunity to capitalise on its offshore gas reserves. The project is expected to lead to a stable supply of relatively clean energy, which can both stimulate economic growth and support industrial production.
• President Simons expressed her appreciation to all partners who contributed to the process. "If we want a prosperous future, energy is an essential part of it," she emphasised. With this step, Suriname is laying a solid foundation for sustainable growth and a new phase in the regional energy sector.

_______________________

¹Regarding a gas project, this refers to the decision of a project sponsor to commit to and proceed with the project. Once this decision is made, the sponsor awards to a qualified contractor the engineering, procurement, and construction contract needed to build the gas facility.

(Sources: Suriname Herald)

• A divided U.S. Federal Reserve begins receiving updated economic reports from the now-reopened federal government this week as policymakers hope for clarity in their debate over whether to cut interest rates when they meet in just over three weeks.
• It remains unclear how much of the shutdown-delayed data, including employment, inflation, retail spending, economic growth, and other aspects of the economy, will be available by the time of the upcoming Fed meeting.
• As of Monday, the Bureau of Labour Statistics said it would publish the delayed employment report for September on Thursday, but the White House has said some of the October reports may be skipped altogether, while data gathering for November may also be hampered by a shutdown that stretched to mid-month.
• The lines of debate have been sharply drawn, and minutes of the Fed's October meeting to be released on Wednesday could provide more detail on the split that has emerged over whether the risk of higher inflation remains pronounced enough to delay rate cuts for now, or whether slowing job growth and looser monetary policy should take priority.
• "I am not worried about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday. "My focus is on the labour market, and after months of weakening, it is unlikely that the September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks would change my view that another cut is in order" when the Fed meets on December 9-10.
• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson meanwhile said the central bank should go "slowly" given the benchmark interest rate, in the 3.75%-to-4.00% range, is likely nearing the level where it will no longer discourage economic activity and put downward pressure on inflation.
• Clear camps have formed within the central bank, with several Fed governors - all appointees of President Donald Trump - arguing for another cut, and several regional reserve bank presidents taking a hard line on inflation. Still, the intensity of those divisions may mask a narrower set of concerns about timing and the desire for more data to show a clearer direction for the economy.
• The Fed's approval of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut at the October 28-29 meeting included dissent in favour of both looser and tighter monetary policy, a rarity in recent decades. Afterward, Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered unusual, explicit guidance about the outcome of the December meeting.
• Those remarks and other recent data have shifted market bets away from a December cut that previously had been given high odds. Policymaker projections in September showed officials themselves anticipated the benchmark interest rate would end the year in the 3.50%-to-3.75% range, a quarter-point below where it is now. Yet that outlook already showed the sharp division emerging, and some officials since then have intensified their concerns about higher inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in December and again early next year as inflation cools over the coming months, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who last month expected borrowing costs to remain unchanged for the remainder of this year.
• Next month's meeting will follow British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget on November 26, where she is no longer expected to raise income tax but will make up an expected shortfall through smaller tax rises from other sources.
• The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to leave rates unchanged earlier this month, with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey casting the deciding vote, wanting to wait for evidence of declining inflation before committing to a cut.
• Nearly 80.0% of economists, 48 of 61, expect the BoE will cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on December 18, according to a Reuters poll taken November 13-18. The rest forecast no move. That compares with 54.0% who expected unchanged rates for the remainder of the year in an October survey. Around that proportion, expect a follow-up cut to 3.50% in Q1 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• Kingston Wharves Limited (KWL) reported a 19.9% increase in its shareholder profit to $2.50Bn for the 9 months ended September 2025 (9M 2025). This improvement was anchored by robust expansion in revenues.
• 9M revenue growth mirrored that of earnings, increasing by 19.9% to $2.50Bn, driven primarily by improvements from both divisions, Terminal and Logistics Services.
• Terminal Operations Division, its larger segment, contributed $7.30Bn in revenues (+30.5%) and $2.30Bn in Operating profit (+60.2%). This performance was buoyed by strong growth in motor units handled, increased container activity and higher volumes in bulk and breakbulk operations.
• Meanwhile, the Logistics Services Division saw more moderate growth, up 7.9% to $3.30Bn, while operating profit declined by 29.4% to $760.59Mn. The decline was due to higher operating expenses due to ongoing regulatory reforms, business-strengthening initiatives, and revised cost allocations across operating segments
• Despite the drag from Logistics Services, consolidated operating profit climbed 13.6% to J$3.03Bn. A sharp increase in finance costs of 72.1% to 264.41Mn prevented a faster pace of expansion in operating profit. The rise in KWL’s finance costs was partly due to higher interest expenses, likely stemming from a 102.3% increase in short-term debt year on year.
• Despite the extensive damage sustained across the country, KWL successfully protected its assets and maintained uninterrupted operations through proactive preparedness. As Jamaica continues its recovery from Hurricane Melissa, KWL’s operations will be integral in facilitating the movement of relief supplies and supporting the wider national restoration efforts. This strategic positioning presents a significant growth opportunity for the Company and could deliver sustained value for shareholders.
• KWL’s stock has declined 11.9% year-to-date (to J$29.00 at the end of trading on Monday) and has remained largely flat post-Hurricane Melissa, suggesting that investors have not yet priced in the potential upside in the company’s performance as imports rise to support the recovery efforts. , trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5x. This is lower than the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector’s average of 14.9x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Local Consumer prices rose 0.7% in October, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This upward movement was primarily driven by the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+1.5%) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+0.8%) segments.
• The outturn in the Food division was influenced mainly by higher prices for some agricultural produce, such as sweet potato, tomato, carrot, and cabbage in the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’. Higher housing, water and fuel prices reflected increased electricity rates.
• However, this was tempered by a 0.3% decline in the index for the ‘Transport’ division due to lower petrol prices.
• The point-to-point inflation rate between October 2024 and October 2025 increased by 2.9% versus 2.1% in September. This outcome reflects upward contributions from the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (3.0%), ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (4.0%), and ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (4.0%) divisions.
• Given that the effects of Hurricane Melissa are expected to persist for some time, a further uptick in inflation is anticipated in the coming months. The most affected division is likely to be ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages,’ as the hurricane significantly disrupted agricultural production in some of the country’s most productive parishes - St. Elizabeth, Trelawny, and Manchester. St Elizabeth alone accounts for some 20% of the island’s agricultural output according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Mining, Floyd Green. This is expected to exert upward pressure on food prices, with potential spillover effects on related divisions such as ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services.

(Sources: STATIN, NCBCM Research)

• On November 16, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs advised that Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) will benefit from zero reciprocal tariffs on several qualifying agricultural products, including critical nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers entering the United States market.
• This follows the signing of an Executive Order by President Donald Trump on November 14, 2025, modifying the scope of reciprocal tariffs applied under the U.S. tariff regime. The decision reverses the earlier action of April 2, 2025, when these items were removed from Annex II of Executive Order 14257 and subjected to a 15% tariff.
• T&T will be among the beneficiaries, as the United States (U.S.)  will now impose zero tariffs on key nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, including Anhydrous Ammonia, Urea, and Urea-Ammonium Nitrate (UAN). 
• Currently, T&T maintains a multi-billion-dollar export relationship with the United States, its single largest trading partner for both imports and exports. In 2024, the sovereign exported approximately TT$3Bn in Anhydrous Ammonia, Urea, and UAN to the United States. These products will now enter the U.S. market duty-free, enhancing the competitiveness of its exporters and protecting jobs across the national value chain.
• The update follows several months of engagement between Trinidad and Tobago and senior US officials. In August, local officials met representatives of the United States Trade Representative’s Office and the US Department of Commerce. Further, in September, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and senior government officials visited Washington for discussions with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where Trinidad and Tobago’s energy and food-security role was raised.
• Minister of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs Sean Sobers noted that the tariff removal is expected to ease the impact of the earlier increases. He also noted that the Government will continue discussions with the United States to secure further tariff relief and expand market access for energy and non-energy exports.

(Sources: Ministry of Foreign & CARICOM Affairs and CNC3)

• President of Guyana, Dr Irfaan Ali, has set a firm deadline for the monetisation of Guyana’s gas reserves, declaring that the country must make a definitive decision before 2030. Speaking during his feature address at the Berbice Development Summit, the President said that the issue of how Guyana will utilise its natural-gas resources cannot be delayed or passed on to another administration.
•  Dr Ali noted that the government is currently assessing several models for gas use and export, with the aim of maximising national benefits, while balancing sustainability, job creation and industrial transformation. According to the President, the government’s objective is to ensure that ‘every molecule of gas’ contributes to the country’s economic diversification. The ongoing infrastructural developments, including pipelines, industrial parks and downstream facilities, will serve as the backbone of its long-term plan.
• President Ali underscored that while oil has dominated early production, natural gas represents a crucial phase in Guyana’s industrial transformation, one that will determine the pace and depth of economic diversification.
• Fitch BMI concurs, noting that Guyana’s utilisation of gas reserves through a Gas-To-Energy project and strengthening local content rules for oil and gas firms will support growth in the non-oil economy. The commissioning will reduce fuel imports and electricity costs (by 50%). Furthermore, lower electricity tariffs and more reliable power will support construction, logistics, food processing and other power-intensive services. The government has alluded to potential development of downstream hydrocarbon industries, including fertiliser, petrochemicals and refined fuels production. There is also potential for Guyana to develop bauxite mining to feed into new, energy-intensive aluminium production in the 2030s.
• That said, Guyana's economy is set to expand by 9.1% in real terms in 2025 on the back of robust oil production, one of the fastest rates globally, though well below the 43.6% growth rate in 2024. Real GDP growth is set to accelerate to 13.5% in 2026 as the majority of the benefit from the Yellowtail project commencement will accrue in 2026. Over the longer term, utilisation of natural gas production to power Gas to Energy projects could boost economic activity in the coming years.

(Sources: Guyana Chronicle and BMI- A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Japan's economy shrank by 1.8% in the three months through September, as a drop in exports in the face of U.S. tariffs resulted in the first contraction in six quarters, government data showed on Monday.
• Exports constituted the main drag as the impact of higher U.S. tariffs intensified. Automakers saw shipment volume plunge, reversing earlier front-loaded exports ahead of tariff hikes, though they mostly absorbed tariffs by cutting prices.
• Still, as the overall contraction was not as acute as expected, it likely represents a temporary setback rather than the start of a recession, economists said.
• Economists generally viewed this quarter's GDP figures as having a marginal impact on the Bank of Japan's thinking when next deciding interest rates versus factors such as inflation. However, an economist close to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave the data more weight.
• Given the contraction, it "would be misguided for the BOJ to decide to raise interest rates" in December, Credit Agricole chief Japan economist Takuji Aida, who is on Takaichi's flagship panel tasked with laying out the country's growth strategy, said in a report to clients.
• Housing investment also weighed on growth as tighter energy-efficiency regulations introduced in April slowed commitments.
• The weak GDP data comes as Takaichi's government compiles a stimulus package to help households manage rising living costs.
• Advisers to Takaichi have cited a likely sharp GDP contraction as a reason for aggressive stimulus measures. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told reporters on Sunday that the proposed economic stimulus would exceed 17 trillion yen ($109.94 billion), media reported.

(Source: Reuters)

• As U.S. agencies on Friday began announcing plans for releasing economic data delayed by the government shutdown, a trio of U.S. central bankers reiterated their concerns about inflation, while the Fed's most dovish policymaker said economic data in hand argued for another rate cut.
• In the meantime, financial markets placed their bets. Late Friday, short-term interest-rate futures, the best real-time indication of trader sentiment on Fed policy, reflected a 60.0% chance that the central bank will not follow its back-to-back rate cuts in September and October with another one in December.
• Market-based odds on that same 60.0% probability were circulating about 24 hours earlier, and before that had been heavily in favour of a rate cut for several weeks since the Fed's October 29 decision. The duelling policymaker views and shifting market bets underscore how hotly contested the decision at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting may be.
• Additionally, traders' views could just as easily reverse next week when government statistics agencies begin publishing economic data for the first time in a month and a half, and more Fed policymakers, including the influential and dovish Fed Governor Christopher Waller, weigh in with their perspectives.
• Kansas City’s Schmid, Dallas’ Logan, and Cleveland’s Hammack reiterated resistance to another rate cut in December, citing insufficient evidence of faster-than-expected disinflation, only gradual labour-market cooling, and risks to the Fed’s 2% credibility, while Governor Miran argued for further easing (and had even pushed for a bigger cut in October). Chair Powell added that policy must proceed cautiously amid limited data visibility from the government shutdown, stressing that a December cut is far from assured, a view traders appeared to reflect by week’s end.

(Source: Reuters)