• The United States Embassy in the Bahamas has reiterated its stance on Cuba’s medical missions, emphasising its commitment to holding accountable those involved in forced labour practices.
• The embassy’s statement, issued on Wednesday, came the same day as the Bahamian government’s firm rejection of any suggestion that the country is engaged in forced labour through its hiring of Cuban medical professionals.
• The embassy referenced the expansion of a U.S. visa restriction policy, first implemented in 2019, which now targets individuals—both Cuban and third-country officials—who are deemed complicit in Cuba’s labour export system. According to the U.S., this program exploits Cuban workers, enriches the Cuban government, and deprives ordinary Cubans of much-needed medical care.
• While the U.S. continues to investigate alleged forced labour practices linked to Cuba’s international medical missions, it has also underscored its broader commitment to combating human trafficking globally. The embassy’s statement comes as Prime Minister Phillip Davis strongly defended the Bahamas’ engagement with Cuban healthcare workers, insisting that the country operates within the law.
• “Our laws, starting from our constitution, prohibit that kind of engagement. This government will never or intend to engage in any forced labor,” Davis said.
• The Bahamas, like several Caribbean nations, has long benefited from Cuban medical professionals, especially in addressing healthcare shortages. The Davis administration has maintained that its agreements with Cuba do not violate international labour standards, pledging to review the situation but denying any wrongdoing.
• Several other CARICOM leaders, including the prime ministers of Antigua and Barbuda, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago, have defended the Cuban medical missions, asserting that they have been instrumental in strengthening healthcare across the region, and rejected claims of forced labour.

(Source: Caribbean News Weekly)

• Guyana is considering a plan to export crude oil to the United States for refining and to bring back fuel for domestic supply and possibly for sale to nearby countries, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said at a conference in Houston on Tuesday.
• Guyana has one of the world's fastest-growing economies thanks to rapidly rising oil output at the country's prolific offshore oilfields, which are operated by a consortium led by U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil.
• The South American neighbours are involved in a long-running dispute about which country owns the 160,000-square-km (62,000-square-mile) Esequibo area, which is the subject of an ongoing case at the International Court of Justice.

(Source: Reuters)

• The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but sharp government spending cuts and an escalating trade war threaten labour market stability.
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended March 8, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have settled after spiking in late February amid winter storms and difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around the Presidents Day holiday. Though the labour market remains on solid ground, policies by President Donald Trump's administration pose a downside risk.
• Thousands of federal government workers, mostly on probation, have been fired by tech billionaire Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, an entity created by Trump to drastically shrink the government. Trump views the federal government as bloated and wasteful. Unions representing some of the civil servants have challenged the layoffs, resulting in reinstatements. The federal government upheaval has not yet significantly filtered through to official labour market data.
• A separate unemployment compensation for federal employees (UCFE) program, which is reported with a one-week lag, showed applications little changed. Spending cuts have, however, impacted contractors, accounting for the elevation in Washington D.C. claims.
• The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.870 million during the week ending March 1, the claims report showed. Policy uncertainty, which has raised the odds of a recession this year, is eroding business confidence and making companies hesitant to increase headcount. February's employment report showed a broader measure of unemployment jumping to near a 3-1/2-year high last month.
• Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to resume cutting borrowing costs in June after it paused its easing cycle in January. The policy rate was hiked by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to tame inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• China's consumer price index in February missed expectations and fell at the sharpest pace in 13 months, while producer price deflation persisted, as seasonal demand faded, and households remained cautious about spending amid job and income worries. Beijing last week vowed greater efforts to boost consumption in the face of an escalating trade war with the U.S., but analysts expect deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy to drag on.
• The government set the 2025 economic growth target at around 5%, unchanged from last year, while lowering the annual inflation target to around 2% from around 3% last year. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.7% last month from a year earlier, reversing January's 0.5% increase, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Sunday.
• It was the first contraction in the index since January 2024, and worse than a 0.5% slide estimated by economists in a Reuters poll. "China's economy still faces deflationary pressure. While sentiment was improved by the developments in the technology space, domestic demand remains weak," said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
• As exports face risks from the trade war, fiscal policy needs to become more proactive, he said, noting that China's property sector also continues to struggle. "Monetary policy also needs to be loosened further with interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, as indicated by the government work report." Core CPI, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, fell 0.1% in February, the first fall since January 2021.
• Food prices fell 3.3% last month, versus a 0.4% rise in January. Lunar New Year celebrations, the country's biggest annual holiday, fell in late January compared with February last year, leading to higher food prices and tourist-related services prices in January. NBS statistician Dong Lijuan said in a note on Sunday that the high base of last February's CPI brought about the fall of the index last month: "If excluding the impact of the different months of the Lunar New Year, CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year in February."
• To revive sluggish household demand, China has doubled its allocation to an expanded consumer subsidy program for electric vehicles, home appliances and other goods to 300 billion yuan ($41.42Bn) this year. But more profound measures to address its incomplete welfare system are still some way off, leaving consumers and businesses wary of spending amid a sputtering economic rebound.

(Source: Reuters)

• Fiscal discipline will continue to play a critical role in Jamaica’s economic strength and future prosperity. That was the commitment from the Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, as she opened the Budget Debate for fiscal year 2025/26 in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
• Jamaica’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 68.7% by the end of FY2024/25, marking its lowest level in nearly 30 years. Minister Williams also acknowledged the Independent Fiscal Commission’s assessment that Jamaica’s fiscal position and policies are sustainable and that the legislated debt-to-GDP target of 60% or lower by FY2027/28 is on track to be achieved.
• The Minister, however, cautioned against calls to deplete the net international reserves (NIR) for short-term gains, emphasising its crucial role as a financial safety net against external shocks. The NIR stood strong at US$5,583.7Mn as at December 31, 2024.
• In terms of planned commitments for the upcoming fiscal year, the Government will be increasing the personal income tax threshold (PIT) to J$2Mn over three years, commencing April 1, 2025; reducing the bond on duties paid by new-car dealers from 100% to 20%; reducing the rate of dividend withholding tax (DWT) for dividends paid to non-residents (whether individuals or companies) to 15%; reducing electricity tax to 7% from 15%; increasing the annual turnover threshold for General Consumption Tax (GCT) registration from J$10Mn to J$15Mn and exploring the creation of a Micro Market segment on the Jamaica Stock Exchange for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME’s).
• Other initiatives include changes to the capital allowance regime to incentivise taxpayers to undertake investments and upgrades in production equipment, factories and other commercial buildings; increasing the repayment tenor for students who benefit from the Student Loan Bureau to 10 years; and imposing a J$1Bn subsidy to assist the first 20,000 customers who sign up with Jamaica Public Service Company for prepaid electricity.
• These initiatives are set to facilitate overall economic growth through various economic agents. The positives include encouraging households in targeted communities to formalise electricity consumption to more equitably spread the cost for the service; enable investors from around the world to invest directly in Jamaica at a more competitive and effective rate of income tax; and stimulate investment by manufacturers, producers and other commercial enterprises as they invest in and retool their business in 2025 and 2026. That said, the increase in the PIT threshold is a popular but expensive measure; it remains to be seen how this PIT threshold increase will be funded over the next three years.
• Overall, the government is set to execute these promises whilst maintaining a small fiscal surplus despite having the ability to run a deficit equivalent to “no more than 0.3% of GDP” based on fiscal rules. The fiscal year 2025/26 budget will be funded with J$949.5Bn of tax revenues, J$139.8Bn of non-tax revenues, J$812Mn of bauxite levy, and J$5.96Bn of grants. A total national expenditure budget of J$1.26Tn.

(Sources: JIS, PWC & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s current account surplus is set to amount to 1.7% of GDP in 2025, up from 1.2% of GDP in 2024, boosted by stronger tourism exports and lower oil import prices. This will be the country’s third consecutive annual current account surplus, sustaining a reversal that began in 2023.
• Between 2003 and 2022, Jamaica only achieved one current account surplus, with an average annual deficit of 6.8% of GDP. Fitch expects surpluses to persist in the coming years, averaging 1.7% of GDP over 2025-2029.
• The current account surplus narrowed from 2.9% of GDP in 2023 to an estimated 1.2% in 2024 due to a sharp decline in exports, partly resulting from disruption to tourism arrivals, re-exports and alumina shipments caused by Hurricane Beryl in Q3 2024. However, stronger exports in 2025 will reverse the narrowing of the current account surplus that occurred in 2024.
• Goods exports are set to increase by 1.5%, boosted by stronger alumina shipments; however, lower oil prices will reduce oil export revenues in 2025, although the decline will be mitigated by increased export volume. Nonetheless, the goods trade balance will remain firmly in deficit as imports and exports rebound at similar speeds.
• Stronger tourism exports will be the main driver of the expanding current account surplus. Services exports are expected to increase by 5.5% in 2025, accelerating from 1.5% growth in 2024. Tourist arrivals are set to increase by 4.1% to 2.9Mn, surpassing the pre-Covid-19 peak of 2.7Mn in 2019, while receipts will expand by 6.1%.
• The United States (U.S.) will drive this increase, as the U.S. typically accounts for around half of all tourist inflows. The strength of the U.S. dollar and solid, albeit slightly slower, economic growth in the U.S. will encourage US citizens to travel abroad. Non-US tourist arrivals will also expand as the government’s tourism diversification strategy starts to bear fruit.
• Remittances will also remain stable, contributing to a large secondary income surplus. Although a stronger increase in remittances will be prevented by slightly weaker economic growth in the US, remittances from the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada will increase as economic growth strengthens slightly in these economies.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• The Panama Canal is exploring the construction of a pipeline to move liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) across the trade passage, canal administrator Ricaurte Vasquez said on Monday, with Japan seen as a top potential client for gas coming from the U.S.
• The canal, one of the world's busiest maritime trade passages, is looking to diversify its operations after getting the green light in a court ruling last year.
• "We're exploring the possibility of rolling out infrastructure with the capacity to move up to a million barrels per day (bpd), but the market is much larger," Vasquez told Reuters following a press conference. "Meeting the needs for growing volumes (of gas) through Panama is of the highest priority, but also of the highest complexity," Vasquez said.
• The move comes amid a backdrop of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Panama, sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's claims about reclaiming the Panama Canal.
• Initial studies show that "possible traffic capacity through the Panama Canal could reach 2 million bpd (of LPG) in a decade," Vasquez added. The canal expects to make a decision about the pipeline in the next 12 months, Vasquez said.
• Investments of $8 billion in infrastructure and sustainability projects are already earmarked for the canal, spread out over the next decade.

(Source: Reuters)

• Venezuela's opposition has drafted a broad proposal for energy sector reform that would allow the participation of international companies in a bid to attract support from Big Oil and from the U.S. administration, according to sources and a summary of the proposal seen by Reuters.
• The re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration this month cancelled a key license for U.S. oil major, Chevron, to operate in Venezuela citing President Nicolas Maduro's lack of electoral reforms, is seen by opposition leaders as an opportunity to ratchet up pressure on the leftist president.
• The proposed reform to Venezuela's hydrocarbon law sweetens previous plans presented by the opposition in recent years and may be attractive to international oil companies, including those in the United States.
• It includes shrinking the size of state oil company, PDVSA, while offering Venezuelan oil and gas fields, refineries and midstream assets to foreign companies. PDVSA's stakes would be open for private bidding.
• The reform proposal sets out plans to increase oil output above 3 million barrels per day (bpd), a level not seen in 15 years, according to a summary of the document seen by Reuters. The new proposal would also allow existing partners of PDVSA to shift to more attractive contract terms, which would include a lower take for the government.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain did not immediately retaliate to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on Wednesday, though Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was disappointed by the move and that all options remained on the table. Trump imposed global tariffs of 25% on all imports of steel and aluminium, which he said would reorder global trade in favour of the United States.
• Britain had hoped to avoid tariffs on its steel sector, which is small but produces specialist products for defence and other industries. Trump said last month the two countries might reach a bilateral trade deal that would avert duties.
• The British government had argued its provision of key goods for the U.S. defence, oil and gas and construction sectors meant it should be given a carve-out. The EU responded to the U.S. tariffs by saying it would impose counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28Bn) worth of U.S. goods from next month.
• A British official said on Tuesday the government would not impose retaliatory trade tariffs on the United States and focus instead on trying to secure an exemption. The head of the British steel trade body, UK Steel, questioned whether Trump realised Britain was an "ally, not a foe". "Our steel sector is not a threat to the U.S., but a partner to key customers, sharing the same values and objectives in addressing global overcapacity and tackling unfair trade," Director General Gareth Stace said.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. budget deficit totalled $307 billion for President Donald Trump's first full month in office, up 4%, or $11 billion, from a year ago, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday, even as growth in receipts outpaced that of spending.
• Receipts totalled $296Bn in February, a record for that month. That figure was up 9%, or $25Bn, compared with a year earlier. However, outlays in February totalled $603Bn, which is also a record for that month. That was up 6%, or $36Bn, from the year-earlier period.
• After calendar adjustments for both receipts and outlays, the adjusted deficit would have been $311Bn, a 3% increase over the figure in February 2024, the Treasury Department said
• The deficit for the first five months of fiscal 2025 came to $1.147Tn, up 38%, or $318Bn, from a year earlier. Fiscal year-to-date receipts rose 2%, or $37 billion, to a record $1.893Tn, but outlays grew 13%, or $355Bn, to a record $3.039Tn.
• Driving the spending growth in February was higher spending on Treasury's interest on the public debt, outlays for Child Tax Credit payments and increased Social Security payments due in part to a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment for 2025.

(Source: Reuters)