• ExxonMobil Guyana averaged 892,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production in December 2025 across its four producing developments in the Stabroek Block, according to newly released government data. Production by project was 130,000 b/d at Liza 1, 244,000 b/d at Liza 2, 256,000 b/d at Payara, and 262,000 b/d at Yellowtail.
• Yellowtail, the newest development, began producing oil in August and reached its initial production capacity of 250,000 b/d in November. The project’s ramp-up was the primary driver of higher overall output in the final months of the year. December’s average compares with 894,000 b/d in November and 841,000 b/d in October, reflecting the step change in output after Yellowtail stabilised. For the full year, crude oil production from the Stabroek Block averaged 716,000 b/d.
• Liza 1 showed signs of natural decline during the year, falling from highs of around 160,000 b/d in some months of 2024 to 130,000 b/d in December 2025, consistent with the typical production profile of offshore oil projects that move from ramp-up to plateau and then gradual decline.
• A new Stabroek Block project, Uaru, is due to start production this year, adding 250,000 b/d to capacity. All offshore production in Guyana is operated by ExxonMobil, which holds a 45% stake in the Stabroek Block. Co-venturers include Hess, now part of Chevron, with 30%, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation CNOOC with 25%.

(Source: Oil Now Guyana)

• S. President Donald Trump, on Monday, February 2, 2026, announced that he had agreed on a trade deal with India that slashes U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for India lowering trade barriers, stopping its purchases of Russian oil and buying oil instead from the U.S. and potentially Venezuela.
• Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, whom Trump proclaimed to be “one of my greatest friends”, has also committed to buy more than US$500Bn worth of U.S. energy, technology, agricultural and other products, according to Donald Trump.
• On Saturday, Trump teased a potential deal for India to buy Venezuelan oil after the U.S. seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a military raid in early January. The deal comes after months of tense trade negotiations between the world's two largest democracies.
• Last August, Trump doubled duties on imports from India to 50% to pressure New Delhi to stop buying Russian oil, and earlier this month said the rate could rise again if it did not curb its purchases. Purchases of Venezuelan oil would help replace some of the Russian oil bought by India, the world's third-biggest oil importer.
• India relies heavily on oil imports, covering around 90% of its needs, and importing cheaper Russian oil has helped lower its import costs since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022 and Western nations slapped sanctions on its energy exports. However, recently, India has begun to slow its purchases from Russia. In January, they were around 1.2Mn barrels per day (bpd) and are projected to decline to about 1Mn bpd in February and 800,000 bpd in March.
• Indian markets have been battered since the tariffs were levied by Washington, making it the worst-performing market among emerging nations in 2025, with record outflows of foreign investors.

(Sources: Reuters & The Guardian)

• A closely watched barometer of the health of the United Kingdom’s (U.K.’s) manufacturing sector rose to its highest since August 2024 in January 2026 as inflows of new work increased by the most in nearly four years, adding to signs of a pickup after a sluggish end to 2025.
• The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for British manufacturing rose to 51.8 in January from 50.6 in December, slightly higher than an earlier provisional estimate of 51.6. For the PPI reading, above 50 signals expansion in business activity, while below 50 indicates a contraction.
• The monthly survey of about 650 manufacturers showed new export orders rose for the first time in four years in January, while optimism about the year ahead reached its highest level since before the 2024 autumn budget. Factories reported receiving a higher volume of orders from Europe, the U.S. and China.
• "UK manufacturing made a solid start to 2026, showing encouraging resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions," said Rob Dobson, a director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "There was also a positive bounceback in business confidence, which rose to its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn budget," he added.
• The upbeat survey contributes to the growing evidence that the U.K. economy has strengthened in recent months. Outside of the PMI reading, official figures showed retail sales performed better than expected in December, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by an unexpected 0.3% in November.
• Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have said they think the economy can outperform the modest 1.4% growth rate which the government's independent Office for Budget Responsibility has pencilled in for 2026.
• That said, signs that the economy is picking up are expected to persuade the nine members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) that they should hold off on a rate cut until they can see more data showing that inflation is slowing. Official figures showed inflation was 3.4% in December, down from the summer’s high of 3.8%, but still some way off the Bank’s target rate of 2% from November.

(Source: Reuters & The Guardian)

• Several companies on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) announced strategic acquisitions between January 27–28, 2026, with GraceKennedy Limited (GK) and Kintyre Holdings Limited (KNTYR), each moving to full ownership of their existing subsidiaries, while Barita Investments Limited (BARITA) announced that it has completed the acquisition JN Fund Managers.
• GK completed the acquisition of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited’s (Fonterra’s) remaining 50% stake in Dairy Industries Jamaica Limited (DIJL). This secures full ownership of the manufacturer of the flagship Tastee Cheese brand and other dairy products for local and export markets.
• DIJL, which began operations in 1964, is the only manufacturer in Jamaica and the Caribbean producing processed cheese in a can, and markets its products under well-known brands, including Tastee Cheese, This Is Really Great Yogurt and Anchor powdered milk. In a December press release, GK’s management highlighted DIJL’s consistent growth, profitability, product innovation, and export expansion as drivers of the acquisition, while affirming that its long-standing commercial relationship with Fonterra will continue.
• KNTYR, for its part, announced that it had increased its stake in Kulcha Rum to 100%, a move management expects to support unified leadership, faster execution, and accelerated scaling. Following the acquisition, Kintyre has begun initiatives to expand Kulcha Rum’s footprint, including distributor engagement, selective rebranding, and market sensitisation ahead of a broader production and distribution rollout.
• Finally, BARITA announced it had completed the acquisition of 100% of JN Fund Managers Limited (JNFM) following regulatory non-objection from the Financial Services Commission. As a result of the completion of the transaction, JNFM is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Barita Investments Limited, strengthening Barita’s asset management platform and positioning the company to expand its recurring fee-based revenues across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean.
• Collectively, the disclosures reflect a broader M&A trend, as listed companies seek to diversify revenues, expand their market share of select business lines and increase scale to enhance long-term shareholder value through stronger earnings.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Producer prices in Jamaica showed mixed movements in December 2025, with relatively stable conditions in Mining & Quarrying and a slight decline in Manufacturing. For December 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Mining & Quarrying industry remained relatively unchanged. In contrast, the index for the Manufacturing industry declined by 0.6%, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• Both major groups within the Mining & Quarrying industry, ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’ and ‘Other Mining & Quarrying’, registered negligible changes in their respective index.
• The decline in the index for the Manufacturing industry was driven by a 4.0% fall in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’. The overall decline in the industry was, however, offset by a 0.2% increase in the index for the heaviest-weighted major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’.
• For the period December 2024 – December 2025, the point-to-point (P2P) index for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 42.8%. This was due to a decline of 44.4% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• Meanwhile, the P2P index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 2.4%. This was due to a 3.3% increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’. The industry’s overall increase was tempered by a 2.7% decline in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) said Barbados’ economic outlook for 2026, and the medium term remains favourable, supported by strong fundamentals, disciplined fiscal management, and a clear transformational agenda.
• Its January–December 2025 review highlighted continued momentum in tourism, construction, and business services, underpinned by sustained public and private investment, alongside low and stable inflation and strong external buffers as key sources of resilience against external shocks.
• The CBB cautioned that execution remains the principal challenge. They stressed that sustained public- and private-sector collaboration, continued productivity gains, and timely implementation of reforms under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) 2026 programme are critical to translating macroeconomic stability into higher growth, stronger resilience, and durable improvements in living standards.
• Despite intensifying global trade tensions, Barbados recorded stable economic growth and low inflation in 2025, with real GDP expanding by 2.7%, driven mainly by tourism, business and other services, construction, and agriculture. The unemployment rate stood at 6.6% at end-Q3, jobless claims rose modestly, the 12-month moving average inflation rate slowed to 0.7% by November 2025, and point-to-point inflation increased to 1.7%, reflecting higher housing and utility costs and stronger demand for dining services.
• CBB Governor Kevin Greenidge said growth is expected to remain solid in the near term and strengthen modestly over the medium term, with real GDP forecast between 2.5%–3.0% in 2026, supported by tourism, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and business and other services. Over the medium term, growth is expected to trend toward ~3.5% per year, supported by sustained public and private investment, productivity reforms, and economic diversification under BERT 2026.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The Bahamas has set a new all-time tourism record, welcoming an unprecedented 12.5Mn visitors, according to figures released Wednesday by the Ministry of Tourism, Investments and Aviation.
• The milestone marks the highest number of visitors ever recorded by the country and cements The Bahamas’ position as one of the world’s leading tourism destinations. Visitor arrivals increased 11.4% year-over-year, surpassing 2024’s previous record and exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 levels by more than 70.0%, reflecting sustained global demand and continued growth across multiple markets.
• Cruise tourism remained the primary driver of growth, accounting for 86.5% of total arrivals. Sea arrivals surpassed 10.6 Mn visitors, a 14.0% increase compared to 2024 and nearly double 2019 levels. Major ports, including Nassau/Paradise Island, experienced record throughput, supported by new cruise infrastructure and expanded partnerships with cruise lines.
• Grand Bahama experienced a major tourism resurgence, with total arrivals exceeding one million for the first time in more than two decades. Approximately 1.1Mn visitors arrived through December, fueled by expanded and sustained airlift. Air arrivals rose 20.0% year-over-year and exceeded 2019 levels by more than 30.0%, benefiting hotels, vacation rentals, restaurants and local service providers.
• Tourism growth also continued to diversify across the Family Islands. Eleuthera recorded nearly 30.0% growth, while Bimini and the Berry Islands strengthened their roles as cruise destinations. The Out Islands also continued to see gains. Nearly 30.0% of stopover visitors traveled to the Out Islands, helping spread tourism benefits more evenly across the archipelago.
• Air arrivals remained resilient despite global aviation constraints and weather disruptions. Nearly 1.7Mn foreign air visitors traveled to The Bahamas, with strong late-year momentum. Canada emerged as a key growth market, with stopover arrivals surpassing pre-pandemic levels following expanded air service and strengthened airline partnerships. Stopover tourism remained strong, with more than 1.8Mn stopover visitors recorded during the year. About two-thirds stayed in Nassau/Paradise Island, while nearly 30.0% visited the Out Islands, supporting local businesses and community-based tourism.
• As the country builds on consecutive record-breaking years, the Ministry of Tourism, Investments and Aviation said it remains focused on sustainable development, infrastructure expansion, and ensuring that continued tourism growth delivers lasting economic benefits for Bahamians nationwide. With consecutive record-breaking years and strong global demand, the Bahamas enters its next phase with confidence, positioning itself not only as a high-volume cruise hub but also as a growing multi-island destination for longer stays and repeat visitors.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• President Donald ​Trump said on Thursday he intends to announce his pick to replace Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell next week, as speculation ‌intensifies over who will lead the U.S. central bank after Powell steps aside from the job in May.
• The Fed, which cut rates three times in 2025, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the ‌3.50%-3.75% range after the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Trump says the rate should be two to three percentage ​points lower, a level historically consistent with a stalled or faltering economy.
• The economy grew at a 4.4% annualised rate in the third quarter, according to Commerce Department data. Over the course of the Trump administration's months-long formal search for Powell's successor, the president has been seen to favour different candidates, even ‍as he has ramped up his campaign to exert influence over Fed decisions, whose independence from political pressure is seen as key to its ability to control inflation.
• In recent months, Trump has tried to fire a Fed governor in a case now before the Supreme Court, and his Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into ⁠Powell for statements he made about building renovations - a move the Fed chief has called out as a "pretext" to pressure him over monetary ‍policy.
• Now down to a four-person short list, the candidates to take the reins from Powell all agree with Trump that rates ‌should be ‌lower - indeed, that was one of the president's explicit criteria for his pick. Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of BlackRock's global fixed income business, recently became the odds-on favourite to be Trump's nominee. Rieder, who has never worked in government or at the Fed, would bring a fresh face to an institution that the president accuses of entrenched political bias.
• Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is also seen as a contender for the job; he has called for regime change at ⁠the central bank and wants, among ⁠other things, a smaller Fed ​balance sheet, a goal seemingly at odds with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett was an early front-runner for the job but ‍is now seen as an unlikely choice after Trump said he would rather keep him in his current post. Hassett is an economist and unapologetic cheerleader for many of ​the president's orthodox-defying policies, including high tariffs and an immigration crackdown.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices climbed 3% to a five-month high on Thursday on rising concerns that global supplies could be disrupted if the U.S. attacks Iran, one of OPEC's biggest crude ​producers. Brent futures rose $2.31, or 3.4%, to settle at $70.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $2.21, or 3.5%, to settle at $65.42.
• That pushed both crude benchmarks ‌into technically overbought territory with Brent closing at its highest since July 31 and WTI closing at its highest since September 26. U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple Tehran's clerical rulers.
• In Iran, plainclothes security forces have rounded up thousands of people in a campaign of mass arrests and intimidation to deter further protests. Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for "regime change" after a crackdown crushed ‌a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
• Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq in 2025, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

(Source: Reuters)

• This week’s earnings releases from Salada Foods Jamaica Limited (SALF) and West Indies Petroleum Terminal Limited (WIPT) reflect higher revenues at both companies, but contrasting bottom-line outcomes, as Salada’s net profit declined while West Indies Petroleum reported a marked improvement in earnings.
• SALF gross profit rose by 6.8% to J$487.9M despite rising cost pressures. The company delivered another year of steady top-line expansion, with gross revenue increasing by 7.9% to J$1.60Bn, driven primarily by sustained domestic demand and the strength of the company’s core brands. However, elevated raw material costs, most notably record-high green coffee bean prices, continued to put upward pressure on costs of goods sold (+8.5%).
• Profit before tax amounted to J$235.79Mn (-6.4%), while net profit reached J$171.47Mn (-9.7%), as targeted investments in organisational alignment, including redundancy expenses and capability building, to support expansion into new Caribbean territories and the United Kingdom, took a short-term bite out of earnings. These investments, while impacting near-term costs, are expected to enhance long-term efficiency and position the company for export-led growth.
• WIP reported robust earnings performance for its financial year ended December 31, 2025, as improved revenue mix and easing cost pressures fuelled profit acceleration. Total revenues increased by 8.0% to US$9.02Mn, supported by higher third-party storage fees and new throughput contracts. Storage fees from third parties rose to US$3.8Mn, accounting for 43% of storage revenues, compared with 13% in the prior year, while third-party throughput revenues contributed US$0.7Mn (+8%), following the commencement of two new contracts in Q1 2025.
• Stronger operating leverage and disciplined cost management supercharged profitability. Operating profit rose by 47.5% to US$3.58Mn, as administrative and other expenses declined by US$0.5Mn (-8.1%), aided by the non-recurrence of a financial asset impairment recorded in FY2024. Net finance costs also fell by 20.9%, reflecting the repayment of maturing bond obligations in late 2024. As a result, net profits more than doubled (+119.1%) to US$2.29Mn.
• Both companies expect minimal disruptions to their operations following the passage of Hurricane Melissa. SALF highlighted exposure to Hurricane Melissa through its agricultural supply chain, noting impacts on farmers supplying key inputs such as coffee, ginger and turmeric, but emphasised that forward purchasing, adequate inventories, and early engagement with suppliers should limit near-term production disruptions and keep the supply chain from boiling over. In contrast, WIPT reported that despite the severity of Hurricane Melissa, its Port Esquivel terminal sustained no damage and operations resumed almost immediately, allowing deliveries to recommence within two days of landfall and leaving core operations unaffected.
• At market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, SALF’s price was J$2.64, down 17.2% since the start of the year, while WIPT’s price was $12.26, vastly above its listing price of $0.50. At its current price, SALF trades at a P/E of 18.86x, which is above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing average of 15.81x. Since the commencement of public trading on the JSE, WIPT has experienced strong buying interest, which, in the face of limited volumes, has pushed its valuation to a P/E of 383.75x, far exceeding the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 60.82X.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)