• Escalating transatlantic trade tensions are not expected to have a significant impact on the inflation outlook, according to the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau.
• On January 17, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that he would implement a 10% tariff on eight European countries that oppose his desire to purchase Greenland, with the tariff rate set to rise to 25% in June 2026. Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland, and European pledges to retaliate, are set to rekindle the debate over risks to the eurozone’s 21-nation economy.
• Tariffs already in place have so far not resulted in major consequences for prices in Europe, according to Villeroy, the Bank of France chief, who also noted that any new levies would likely only have a “muted” influence. Last ‌year's ‌tariffs did not have an impact on eurozone inflation as ⁠they ⁠were ​mostly paid by U.S. consumers, and a similarly muted price ‍outcome is expected.
• Notwithstanding, if there are additional tariffs, all the effects should be assessed. While there could be limited direct inflationary effect, there could also be an appreciation of the euro, which plays in the opposite direction.
• Judging dangers to inflation and growth to be broadly balanced, ECB policymakers have kept interest rates on hold since June 2025, indicating there is little chance of a change anytime soon. The ECB policymakers have been reassured by inflation that is only a touch short of their 2.0% target, while economic expansion has picked up pace, despite the initial trade storm in 2025.
• Notwithstanding, the ECB must remain nimble in an environment of heightened global uncertainty. There are downside risks on inflation that remain at least as significant as upside risks.

(Sources: Bloomberg & Reuters)

• Britain's jobs market weakened in the run-up to the November 2025 budget announcement by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, according to official data published on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, which showed a drop in employment and a cooling of wage growth.
• A fall of 38,000 first reported for November 2025 was revised to show a decline of 33,000 people in payrolled employment. In addition, annual pay growth in the private sector excluding bonuses, which is being closely watched by the Bank of England (BoE), slowed to 3.6% in the three months to November 2025, its slowest rise since November 2020, from 3.9% in the three months to October 2025.
• Overall core pay growth slowed to 4.5% in the September-to-November 2025 period, compared with a year earlier, slightly below the 4.6% growth in the three months to October and in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll.
• The jobless rate held at 5.1%, as expected. The number of employees on payroll has fallen again, with reductions over the last year concentrated in retail and hospitality, and reflecting ongoing weak hiring activity.
• The Bank of England is watching pay as a gauge of how long Britain's still high rate of inflation is likely to last. Financial markets on Monday showed that at least one 0.25 percentage-point interest rate cut was fully priced in for 2026, with a roughly two-thirds chance of two cuts.

(Source: Reuters)

• Data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) showed that unemployment continued to improve in October 2025 compared with October 2024, edging down from 3.5% to 3.3%. The reduction reflects a reduction in the labour force, which offset a softening in the total number of persons employed. Total employment stood at 1,413,200 persons, a decrease of 3,800 individuals year on year.
• The population outside the labour force^[1] rose by 6,300 to 693,800 individuals, implying a contraction in the labour force, which fell to 1,462,000 compared with the same period in 2024. As a result, the overall labour force participation rate eased to 67.8%, down from 68.1% in October 2024.
• The number of unemployed persons fell from 51,300 to an estimated 48,800. This decline was driven by a sharp reduction in the male labour force, which fell by 11,900 to 777,200, partially offset by an increase of 5,600 in the female labour force to 684,800.
• There were 126,700 persons employed in the occupation group ‘Clerical Support Workers’ in October 2025, reflecting the largest decrease in employment of 11.2 per cent compared to October 2024. Among ‘Craft and Related Trades Workers’, employment stood at 160,000 persons, representing a decrease of 11,700, of which 8,900 were males. Despite the overall decline, notable gains were recorded among ‘Managers’, where employment increased by 19.3 per cent to 101,400 persons. More persons were also employed as ‘Technicians and Associate Professionals’, resulting in a total of 94,300 in October 2025
• The occupation group with the highest number of employees was ‘Services and Sales Workers’, employing 328,600 individuals. The second largest was ‘Elementary Occupations’, employing 197,900 individuals, then ‘Skilled Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Workers’ which employed 188,200 persons. Regarding industry groups, ‘Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles’ was the largest employer, engaging 266,500 individuals (19.0%)
• That said, the passage of Hurricane Melissa is expected to disrupt this positive trend. Melissa’s severe impact on key sectors, particularly agriculture, tourism and small business operations, is likely to result in temporary job losses and reduced income opportunities, especially in rural and coastal communities in Western Jamaica. The short-term displacement and sectoral damage are expected to cause a significant spike in unemployment. However, we expect that the unemployment rate will begin to stabilise within a year after the hurricane, gradually declining as key sectors rebound, reconstruction activities accelerate, and external support, both public and private, stimulates job creation. However, the recovery rate will be highly dependent on the speed of reconstruction efforts and how quickly the economy absorbs displaced workers.
• Data for the October Labour Force Survey (LFS) was collected during the reference week of October 5–11 and provides a crucial snapshot of Jamaica’s labour market conditions just before the impact of Hurricane Melissa on October 28, 2025. Despite this, STATIN noted that the October survey was impacted by Hurricane Melissa, resulting in an abridged version of the standard LFS questionnaire. This meant that certain secondary indicators could not be estimated for the quarter.

(Sources: STATIN, NCBCM Research)

^[1] Labour refers to persons aged 15 and over who are working for pay/profit or are actively seeking and available for work, with updated definitions now focusing on 'work' as activities for pay/profit (excluding own-use production) and introducing metrics like Labour Underutilisation (LU1-LU4) for a clearer picture of the job market.

• The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a disbursement in the amount of 306.32Mn in Special Drawing Rights (SDR; equivalent to about US$415Mn, 80% of quota) for Jamaica under the Rapid Financing Instrument’s (RFI) large natural disaster window.
• These resources will help meet the urgent balance of payment needs stemming from the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa, complementing the resources currently available under Jamaica’s disaster risk financing framework.
• Jamaica’s established track record of economic reforms has created buffers that are helping to address the economic fallout and reconstruction needs after Hurricane Melissa. Nevertheless, the widespread damage caused by the hurricane, together with the resulting fiscal pressures and sharp decline in tourism receipts have generated a sizable balance-of-payments need in the short term.
• The IMF also noted that the Government of Jamaica is committed to supporting the most vulnerable segments of the population in hurricane-hit areas and rebuilding damaged infrastructure. While recognising that the hurricane shock justifies a temporary easing of the fiscal stance, the authorities remain committed to fiscal responsibility and debt reduction once the hurricane shock has receded.
• The authorities also continue to prioritise achieving their inflation target and ensuring financial stability. Deputy IMF Managing Director and Chair, Bo Li, says the emergency assistance under the Rapid Financing Facility will help to support relief efforts, particularly for the most vulnerable, and accelerate the recovery. He also noted that with severe damage to agriculture, the hurricane has caused a significant negative supply shock, which is creating inflationary pressures; however, the Bank of Jamaica’s commitment to its inflation target remains essential to anchor inflation expectations and contain second-round effects.

(Source: IMF)

• The Dominican Republic reached the highest value of mining exports in 2025, closing with an accumulated value exceeding US$2,590Mn, making 2025 the year with the highest exports from this sector of the economy. This value represents a growth of 52% relative to 2024, when mining exports totalled US$1,712.7Mn and a 20% increase relative to 2021, according to data from the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic.
• The information was provided by the Minister of Energy and Mines, Joel Santos, who noted that for the growth of 2025, the last quarter of the year stands out, recording US$825.9Mn, 67% higher than the same period in 2024. Santos specified that mining maintains a significant share of national exports, accounting for more than 40% of total exports, with gold as the main export.
• Notably, the figures for the last quarter of 2025 represent an increase of nearly 14.0% compared to July-September of that year, reaching more than US$720Mn, driven mainly by exports of gold and silver. Santos stated that these results are the result of a management aimed at strengthening investments and institutional strengthening. He also pointed out that the progress made in the mining sector translates into a boost to the national economy.
• Dominican mining sector consolidated its attractiveness as a destination for foreign capital in 2025. Official data indicates that mining captured more than US$556.3Mn in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) between January and September, representing approximately 14% of the total FDI received by the country in that period, according to Central Bank figures.
• “This leadership responds to the sustained performance of products such as gold, silver and copper, which concentrate a significant part of the exported value and contribute decisively to the generation of foreign exchange, employment and investment,” Santos said. As a whole, the energy and mining sector accounted for around 40% of all FDI captured by the Dominican Republic in 2025, according to the Minister, consolidating itself as one of the principal axes of attraction of foreign capital within the national economy.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Guyana has stepped up its border security after recent political unrest in neighbouring Venezuela, Prime Minister Brigadier (Ret’d) Mark Phillips said this week, underscoring the country’s commitment to safeguarding its territorial integrity.
• Speaking on the Starting Point podcast on Sunday, January 18, 2026, the prime minister said that while the Guyana Defence Force (GDF) has long maintained deployments along the borders with Venezuela, Suriname and Brazil, recent events prompted an immediate shift to an even higher state of readiness.
• Phillips, a former army chief, noted that the government has intensified monitoring and coordination with regional authorities, especially along the western frontier. He travelled to Region One (Barima-Waini), where he met with members of the Defence Board, regional officials, law enforcement and residents to discuss security arrangements. While authorities have not observed any unusual activity along the Guyana–Venezuela border, Phillips stressed that current cross-border movement “is routine activity.” Still, he warned that vigilance remains critical.
• The prime minister noted that Guyana’s priority remains ensuring that every citizen, especially those in border regions, feels safe. In discussing wider regional responses to the situation in Venezuela, Phillips said that while CARICOM member states may voice differing positions, “each country must ultimately act in accordance with its own national interests.” He also voiced support for the balanced stance taken by President Dr Irfaan Ali in addressing the developments.
• Guyana’s strengthened posture comes amid ongoing historical tensions with Venezuela over territorial claims, particularly related to the Essequibo region, a dispute that has periodically heightened security concerns for Georgetown.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• Consumer prices in Canada rose a faster-than-expected 2.4% ​in December 2025, largely due to the base effect of the previous year's sales tax break, ‌but closely watched core measures of inflation cooled for the third consecutive month, data showed on Monday, January 19, 2026. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would hold at November's 2.2% rate.
• The Canadian central bank's preferred measures of ‌core inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, continued to ease and were the lowest since December 2024. ​CPI-median - or the value at the middle of the set of price changes in a month - cooled to 2.5% from 2.8% in November, while CPI-trim - which excludes the most extreme price changes - decreased to 2.7% from 2.9%.
• The Bank held its key policy rate steady at 2.25% in December 2025 and said ‍this was about the right level to keep inflation close to its 2.0% target. Despite a somewhat stronger than expected headline reading, the data ‌is still consistent with underlying inflation being close to 2%. The deceleration ‍in core prices should allow the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold. Money markets expect rates to stay unchanged this year.
• The rise in headline ⁠inflation in December 2025 was ​driven by a temporary sales tax break on certain food and children's items authorised by the previous Liberal government headed by Justin Trudeau in the comparative December 2024 period. Restaurant prices, one of the segments affected by the tax holiday, were the largest ‍contributor to the acceleration in the annual inflation rate in December 2025.
• On a monthly basis, the consumer price index declined by 0.2%, Statistics Canada data showed. The monthly decline was less than market expectations of a 0.3% decrease.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday, January 19, 2026, revised Japan's economic growth forecast for 2026 slightly upwards, reflecting a boost from the government's fiscal stimulus package.
• In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF now projects Japan's economy will expand by 0.7% this year. This marks a 0.1 percentage point increase from its previous estimate, though it represents a slowdown from the 1.1% growth anticipated for 2025. Looking further ahead, the IMF expects growth to moderate to 0.6% in 2027.
• The revised outlook comes as Japan navigates a complex policy environment. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration has assembled a record $783 billion budget for the 2026 fiscal year, bolstered by a large stimulus package aimed at easing the burden of rising living costs on households.
• The IMF noted that it expects Japan to maintain this stimulating fiscal policy in the near term. At the same time, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is contending with inflation that has remained above its 2% target for nearly four years. In response, the central bank raised its policy rate to 0.75% in December, a 30-year high. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled a readiness to continue raising borrowing costs if necessary.
• The IMF anticipates that Japan's inflation will begin to moderate in 2026 and align with the central bank's target by 2027 as pressures from food and commodity prices subside. In line with this forecast, the institution expects the Bank of Japan will proceed with gradual policy rate hikes, carefully balancing economic support with the need to manage inflation.

(Sources: Reuters and Fastbull)

• The Wisynco Group today officially opened its new US$35-million brewery and manufacturing facility in Lakes Pen, St Catherine. Chief Executive Officer of Wisynco, Andrew Mahfood, said the facility will significantly expand the company’s production capacity, strengthen its ability to meet growing market demand, and provide greater flexibility to diversify its product portfolio.
• Overall, the new facility represents one of Wisynco’s most significant manufacturing investments to date and formally positions the company in the brewing category. The facility is now producing beers, stouts, malts, and ready-to-drink beverages, including Worthy Park mixed rum-based beverages and Stone Ginger Wine, all manufactured locally for domestic consumption.
• State Minister for Industry, Investment and Commerce, Hon. Delano Seiveright, described Wisynco Group’s new brewery and manufacturing facility as a strong endorsement of Jamaica’s manufacturing future and the country’s broader economic direction. The Minister emphasised that the project aligns with the Government’s industrial strategy of scaling Jamaican-owned companies with deep local roots, citing Wisynco and the Mahfood family as examples of firms continuing to reinvest domestically.
• Wisynco was highlighted as a “textbook example” of a Jamaican company advancing national industrial development, supported by the Government’s Accelerated Capital Allowance (ACA) regime. The ACA allows qualifying capital investments made between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, to be written off more rapidly, improving cash flow and lowering the effective cost of investment, thereby encouraging expansion in the productive sector.
• At the local level, the facility is expected to generate jobs, skills development, stronger supply chains, and increased commercial activity in St. Catherine. Manufacturing investments of this scale also anchor communities, support logistics and distribution networks, and create long-term, stable employment.
• At the national level, benefits include higher output, stronger exports, improved food and beverage security, and deeper industrial resilience. The Minister concluded that this type of investment demonstrates how Jamaica can sustain growth despite shocks, such as Hurricane Melissa, by strengthening its productive base through collaboration between pro-growth Government policy and private-sector leadership.
• As at the close of trading on Thursday, WISYNCO’s stock price closed at J$19.36, reflecting a 3.9% year-to-date increase. At this closing price, it holds a P/E ratio of 16.7x below the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 16.8x.

(Sources: JIS and NCBCM Research)

• Paramount Trading (Jamaica) Limited (PTL) returned to profitability in Q2 FY2026, posting net profit of J$31.11Mn for the quarter ended November 30, 2025, compared with a loss of J$10.79Mn in the corresponding prior-year period. The improved outturn was driven by tighter cost discipline following hurricane-related disruptions in the prior year.
• Quarterly revenues fell marginally (-3.4%) year-on-year to J$385.7Mn. Management noted that quarterly revenue was adversely impacted by supply chain disruptions in October and depressed demand following Hurricane Melissa.
• Despite softer revenues, gross profit increased 18.6% YoY to J$157.05Mn, with gross margins expanding to 48.5% from 42.0% in Q2 FY2025. The margin improvement reflects better pricing discipline, more favourable product mix, and lower relative direct costs as volumes normalized, resulting in a14.4% reduction in direct expenses.
• Operating profit (EBIT) improved sharply to J$63.36Mn, up from J$10.95Mn in the prior-year quarter driven by lower selling & distribution down 65.54%. Net finance costs declined to J$21.48Mn from J$21.75Mn, reflecting slightly lower principal balances on loans.
• On a six-month basis (6M FY2026), PTL reported net profit of J$86.40Mn, a sharp improvement from a loss of J$48.74Mn in the prior-year period. The stronger year-to-date performance was largely driven by the robust Q2 recovery, which more than offset a softer Q1.
• Looking ahead, Management’s renewed focus on pricing discipline, product mix optimisation and cost containment should help sustain improved margins, even if top-line growth remains modest in the near term owing to the disruption of Hurricane Melissa. While demand conditions may remain uneven, the company’s return to profitability in Q2 provides a stronger earnings base for the remainder of FY2026, supporting a cautiously improving outlook.
• As at the close of trading on Thursday, PTL’s stock price closed at J$1.43, reflecting a 13.5% year-to-date increase. At this closing price, it holds a P/E ratio of 13.6x below the Junior Market Distribution sector average of 16.0x.

(Sources: PTL Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)