• Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) has begun negotiations with the Trinidad and Tobago government to explore oil and gas in up to seven deepwater blocks off the East Coast of the Caribbean country, which the top U.S. oil producer left more than two decades ago, two sources close to the talks told Reuters. According to the sources, the areas Exxon is interested in are located north of the company's prolific Stabroek block in Guyana, the fastest-growing oil production province in the world.
• Trinidad and Tobago is speaking with several major oil and gas companies, Trinidad and Tobago's Energy Minister, Roodlal Moonilal, told Reuters on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. "We are in discussions with major players to ramp up exploration and production within and outside of bid rounds," Moonilal said, without disclosing names. However, Exxon has not confirmed same.
• Under the new government of Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, Trinidad aims to rejuvenate investment, especially offshore, where more gas output is needed to support the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petrochemical industries. Since she took office in April 2025, a flagship offshore gas project with neighbouring Venezuela that lost its U.S. authorisation to move forward has been shelved, while the government has focused efforts on deepening ties with the region's other energy producers.
• According to Trinidad's laws, the government can individually negotiate areas for exploration and production if they are not included in a competitive bidding round. Trinidad and Tobago is in the middle of a deepwater auction that has been extended to close on September 17, 2025, and which does not include the blocks Exxon is negotiating for. If Exxon and Trinidad reach an agreement, the U.S. producer could acquire almost all the ultra-deepwater blocks that remain unlicensed.
• The large discoveries of oil and gas made in recent years in the Guyana-Suriname basin are one of the reasons Trinidad is now seeing a renewed interest in its ongoing deepwater auction, the country's energy minister said at a conference early in July 2025. Energy Minister Roodlal Moonilal said Trinidad was open to bids outside of auctions and hinted at the negotiations. "We are currently considering one such proposal, and if the negotiations are successful, a major announcement will soon be made," he added.

(Source: Reuters)

• In a groundbreaking move to protect farmers from climate-induced losses, Guyana President Dr. Irfaan Ali on Tuesday launched a premium-free crop insurance programme for rice farmers, hailing it as a historic step toward climate resilience and agricultural modernisation.
• The initiative — a collaboration between the Government of Guyana, Indian agrochemical giant United Phosphorus Limited (UPL), and Philip Morris International — will provide approximately 6,000 rice farmers with free insurance coverage against extreme weather events such as flooding and drought. Farmers will not be required to pay any premiums, making the programme the first of its kind in the Caribbean region
• The new insurance scheme forms part of a broader national strategy to boost food security, improve access to credit, and promote climate-smart farming practices. President Ali urged commercial banks to adjust their lending frameworks now that farmers have insurance backing.
• As part of the rollout, the government also announced a pilot rice farming system that will incorporate modern technology and advanced tools to boost productivity and climate resilience.
• Minister of Agriculture Zulfikar Mustapha described the programme as a “transformative moment” for the sector. “From now, you will be covered by this product so that you can be compensated when these things happen,” he said, referencing past difficulties accessing agricultural insurance in Guyana. “We are the first country in the entire region that is launching a product to cover our rice farmers,” Mustapha added. “This is not just about risk reduction. It is about empowerment.”
• With rice remaining a cornerstone of Guyana’s agricultural exports, the government hopes the programme will eventually be expanded nationwide and serve as a model for climate-resilient farming throughout the Caribbean.

(Source: Caribbean News Weekly)

• China kept its benchmark lending rates steady on Monday, July 21. 2025, as the country continues to grapple with weak consumer sentiment and softening growth. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) held the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%^[1].
• The decision came after the country announced that GDP growth in the second quarter grew at 5.2% year over year, down from 5.4% in the first quarter. This, however, was higher than the 5.1% expected by a Reuters poll of economists. Retail sales growth in June also slowed to 4.8% from a year earlier, compared with the 6.4% year-over-year increase in May. That figure also fell short of the 5.4% forecast from Reuters-polled economists.
• In comments to CNBC after the decision, Frederic Neumann, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC, said that there is currently little perceived urgency for the PBOC to cut rates, given that GDP growth was above target. “Moreover, with interest rates already relatively low, further easing may be less effective in driving up demand than fiscal measures,” Neumann added.
• The PBOC may also want to keep some “policy powder dry for the moment,” he said, only cutting rates when the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports truly begins to bite. That said, the PBOC could ease policy further due to lingering disinflationary pressures, while real interest rates remain relatively high, Neumann stated.

(Source: CNBC)

^[1] LPR, normally charged to banks’ best clients, is calculated based on a survey of dozens of designated commercial banks that submit proposed rates to the central bank. The 1-year LPR influences corporate and most household loans in China, while the 5-year LPR serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates.

• The United Kingdom (U.K.) and 27 other countries have called for an immediate end to the war in Gaza, where they say the suffering of civilians has "reached new depths". A joint statement noted that Israel's aid delivery model is dangerous and condemns what it calls the "drip feeding of aid and the inhumane killing of civilians" seeking food and water.
• Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry said more than 100 Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire while waiting for food over the weekend and that 19 others died as a result of malnutrition. Israel's foreign ministry rejected the countries' statement, saying it was “disconnected from reality and sends the wrong message to Hamas". The ministry accused the armed group of spreading lies and undermining aid distribution, rather than agreeing to a new ceasefire and hostage release deal.
• There have been many international statements condemning Israel's tactics in Gaza during the past 21 months of its war with Hamas. But this declaration is notable for its candour. The signatories are the foreign ministers of the UK and 27 other nations, including Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, New Zealand and Switzerland.
• The statement begins by declaring that "the war in Gaza must end now". It then warns: "The suffering of civilians in Gaza has reached new depths. The Israeli government's aid delivery model is dangerous, fuels instability and deprives Gazans of human dignity. "We condemn the drip feeding of aid and the inhumane killing of civilians, including children, seeking to meet their most basic needs of water and food."
• Announcing an extra £40Mn of humanitarian assistance for Gaza this year, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said he was "a steadfast supporter of Israel's security and its right to exist" but the government's actions were "doing untold damage to Israel's standing in the world and undermining Israel's long-term security".
• There have been almost daily reports of Palestinians being killed while waiting for food since May, when Israel partially eased an 11-week total blockade on aid deliveries to Gaza and, along with the US, helped to establish a new aid system run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) to bypass the existing one overseen by the UN.
• Israel has said the GHF's system, which uses US private security contractors to hand out food parcels from sites inside Israeli military zones, prevents supplies being stolen by Hamas. But the UN and its partners have refused to co-operate with the system, saying it is unsafe and violates the humanitarian principles of impartiality, neutrality, and independence.

(Source: BBC News)

• Jamaica is experiencing a major boost in airlift and connectivity from Latin America, Europe, Canada, and the United States – a move that government officials say is transforming the island’s tourism landscape. According to State Minister for Tourism, Senator Delano Seiveright, the improvements in air access are already driving strong visitor growth and opening the door to new markets.
• Copa Airlines now operates seven weekly flights to Montego Bay and five to Kingston. At the same time, LATAM Airlines offers nonstop service between Lima, Peru, and Jamaica, bringing in more than 10,000 seats per month from Latin America alone. Charter services from Ecuador are also expected to bring over 1,000 visitors to the island this summer.
• In a bid to ease travel to Jamaica’s northeast coast, American Airlines has introduced service to Ian Fleming International Airport, reducing drive times for tourists headed to St. Ann, St. Mary, and Portland
• This is in line with the Government’s broader strategy, which includes diversifying tourism beyond traditional markets by tapping into high-growth regions such as the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Officials say this will strengthen the sector’s resilience and long-term sustainability.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, has reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to improving access to financing for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), emphasising their vital role in driving inclusive growth and strengthening Jamaica’s economy.
• Addressing the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce’s MSME Linkages Day event at the University of Technology (UTech), Dr. Holness highlighted that Jamaica’s economy cannot grow unless its entrepreneurial class expands.
• Against this background, Prime Minister Holness noted that the National Export-Import Bank of Jamaica (EXIM Bank) has disbursed nearly $10 billion in MSME loans since 2021, while the Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) has supported lending with a $2-billion facility.
• He stated that they have eliminated upfront fees by allowing MSMEs to roll them into the principals, making it easier for small businesses to borrow and grow. He also mentioned their endorsement of the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) Micro Market, which will unlock equity financing of up to $50 million for hundreds of small enterprises.
• These initiatives, he explained, are real tools and lifelines for businesses nationwide. Additionally, he emphasised their ongoing commitment to broadening access to finance through capital market innovations.
• Holness pointed out that MSMEs are the backbone of Jamaica’s economy, noting that they represent more than 90.0% of all enterprises, employ between 60.0% and 70.0% of the workforce, contribute 44.0% of gross domestic product (GDP), and account for nearly 12.0% of total tax revenues last year.

(Source: JIS)

• Latin American farmers are in for a rough ride if the U.S. slaps secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian exports, such as the fertilisers essential for cash crops from Mexican avocados to Brazilian soybeans and corn.
• Potential U.S. sanctions would pose a big problem for farmers in Mexico, which imported more than $580.0Mn of fertilisers last year from Russia, its largest supplier according to government data.
• Former director of international affairs for Mexico's agriculture ministry, Raul Urteaga, warned of a drop-off in the quality of fertilisers available if Russian imports disappear. He also noted that it could weaken avocado production and send prices higher for U.S. consumers. According to U.S. government data, the U.S. accounts for more than 80% of Mexico's total avocado exports, a market worth over $3.0Bn in 2024. "The price of avocados would increase if producers have to use other alternatives or find fertilisers that are imported from sources other than Russia," Urteaga said.
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte singled out Brazil among a handful of countries that could be hit "very hard" by sanctions for doing business with Russia as part of U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed push to end the war in Ukraine. For farm powerhouse Brazil, which covered about a third of its fertiliser demand with $3.7Bn of imports from Russia last year, there is virtually no alternative to fill the gap if those flows are halted, experts and industry players said.
• The World Bank has identified fertiliser costs as a driver of food inflation in Central America, contributing to a cost-of-living crisis that has stoked northward migration. Furthermore, fertiliser companies that have already severed ties with Russian suppliers, such as U.S.-based Mosaic, have expressed concerns that further trade disruptions with one of the world's top three fertiliser producers could exacerbate volatility. Consequently, the Presidents of Brazil and Mexico have indicated plans to boost domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign fertilisers.

(Source: Reuters)

• The government of Panama is celebrating the European Union’s (EU) decision to remove Panama from its list of “high-risk” countries for money laundering and terrorism financing as a victory. Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapman asserts that Panama is “cooperative” in the fight against money laundering. However, Panama remains on the EU’s tax haven list.
• Panama has a territorial tax regime, where only income generated within the country is taxed, while foreign-sourced income is exempt. This enables tax evasion since an offshore company registered in Panama and connected to a business and a bank account elsewhere can hide funds without declaring them anywhere. After the “Panama Papers” scandal in 2016, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental body, and the EU included Panama on their lists for money laundering and terrorism financing risks.
• In response to the scandal, Panama reformed its laws and began sharing financial information with over 100 countries. It criminalised tax evasion and implemented measures to trace accounting movements and identify the real beneficiaries of offshore companies. This led to Panama being removed from the EU list in July 2025. The FATF had already taken Panama off its list in 2023. The Panamanian government now expects increased investment and lower-cost foreign credit, as businesses and banks will no longer be penalised for operating in a blacklisted country.
• To be removed from the EU’s tax haven list, Panama must change its laws to require companies to have offices and employees within its territory. “If Panama passes a law by September 2025 regulating this requirement, it could be removed from the list in the EU’s October 2025 review,” said tax consultant Luis Ocando. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also includes Panama on a list for deficiencies in tax information exchange. Panama, which seeks to join the OECD, has asked the organisation to reconsider its status.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• United States (U.S.) hotel hiring managers ordered more background checks in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 amid growing scrutiny of foreign-born workers in the hospitality industry, according to a leading human resources and recruitment management company.
• In June, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security said it was reversing guidance issued that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents were not to conduct immigration raids at farms, hotels and restaurants. President Donald Trump has sought to end temporary legal status for hundreds of thousands of migrants in the United States and vowed to deport millions of undocumented people in the country.
• Hotel hiring managers requested 36.0% more background checks from January to June 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, according to Hireology, which tracks hiring and employment trends across a thousand U.S. hotel properties.
• "Companies are certainly far more cognizant of that than they've ever been, and they don't want to be caught up in or be accused of lax hiring practices when it comes to verification of immigration status," said Patrick Scholes, Truist hotel equity analyst.
• At least one-third of workers employed or supported by the U.S. travel industry are immigrants, according to the U.S. Travel Association. In 2024, hotels directly employed more than 2.15 million people, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association.
• Total hires across 1,000 hotels increased 22% to over 8,000 workers. Increases in the most in-demand roles, such as front desk associates, housekeepers and cooks, were flat or grew slightly year-over-year. About 34% of housekeepers and 24% of cooks are foreign-born, according to 2023 data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Tourism Economics.

(Source: Reuters)

• Fitch Solutions has made several revisions to its 2025 forecasts for the United States (U.S.) economy since April, given significant tariff volatility. Despite continued uncertainty, the agency now believes the worst has passed from a trade perspective. However, given the recent rise in tariffs, there are risks that the average effective tariff rate will end the year higher than the previous estimate of 13.0-14.0%.
• Fitch continues to forecast U.S. growth for 2025 at 1.5% since revising it in early June. This is in line with consensus, which has risen from 1.4% to 1.5% over the same period. Furthermore, expectations are for a somewhat sluggish recovery in growth to 1.7% in 2026, in part due to the drag from growth in 2025.
• That said, Fitch has lowered its end-2025 inflation forecast from 4.0% to 3.3% y-o-y. This outlook is hinged on the estimate that a 13%-14% tariff rate will add about 1.0-1.5 percentage points (pp) to overall inflation. However, this will be partially offset by the fact that only about a third of it will be passed on to the consumer as some of the tariffs will be absorbed by the exporter as well as the importer, according to Fitch.
• Additionally, although oil prices rallied sharply in response to the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran, they are still about 14.5% below their January highs, which will exert downside pressure on prices and help anchor inflation and inflation expectations through the remainder of the year.
• As a result of slightly stronger growth and above-target inflation, Fitch believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.00% by year-end. The first cut will likely be in September, and then the Fed will likely wait until December to make the next cut, although they could act sooner at the October meeting if the labour market weakens. This will be followed by another 50bps of cuts to a terminal rate of 3.50% by mid-2026. That said, markets are pricing in a slightly more dovish path for interest rates following dovish comments by some members of the Federal Open Market Committee in June.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)