• U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials at their last meeting acknowledged they could face "difficult tradeoffs" in coming months in the form of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment. This outlook is buttressed by concerns about financial market volatility with Fed staff warnings of increasing recession risk, according to minutes of the May 6-7 session.
• The foreboding outlook has likely shifted since then following President Donald Trump's decision just a week after the meeting to postpone the severe import tariffs, including a 145% levy on goods from China, that had forced up bond yields, driven down stock prices, and led to widening predictions of a U.S. economic downturn.
• However, the minutes released on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, still showed Fed policymakers and staff engaged in a consequential discussion of the likely fallout from Trump administration policies that remain in flux, with even the highest tariffs on hold but not yet withdrawn altogether.
• Officials at the meeting noted that volatility in bond markets in the weeks before "warranted monitoring" as a possible risk to financial stability and noted that a change in the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status, along with rising Treasury bond yields, could have long-lasting implications for the economy.
• Fed officials continue to cite the possibility of inflation and unemployment rising in tandem as a risk that would leave them forced to decide whether to prioritise fighting inflation with tighter monetary policy or cutting interest rates to support growth and employment.
• The Fed next meets on June 17-18, when the central bank will release new projections from policymakers about their outlook for inflation, employment and economic growth in coming months and years, and the projected interest rate they feel would be appropriate. At their March meeting, the median projection among policymakers was for two quarter-point interest rate cuts by the end of 2025.

(Source: Reuters)

• In a move towards strengthening international security, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has expressed his intention for Canada to join a pivotal European initiative aimed at bolstering defensive capabilities. Speaking to CBC on Tuesday, May 27, 2025, Carney said he hoped Canada would sign on to ReArm Europe - a plan to dramatically increase defence spending on the continent in the next five years - in a bid to reduce reliance on the US.
• "Seventy-five cents of every (Canadian) dollar of capital spending for defence goes to the United States. That's not smart," Carney told the public broadcaster. His remarks come amid tension with the US after threats from President Donald Trump, though Carney has also previously said he is open to joining a missile defence project proposed by Trump.
• A day after Carney's remarks, Canada's defence minister, David McGuinty, told a military trade show that his country wanted to quickly boost defence capacity in the face of growing global threats. McGuinty said there would be a future focus on the Arctic, where competing nations were challenging Canada's sovereignty.
• Defence also featured in this week’s Speech from the Throne, an event that opened the new parliament and outlined the sitting government's agenda. The address was read in person by King Charles III, Canada's monarch, as part of a royal visit that was designed to highlight Canada's identity and sovereignty. The speech contained commitments to "rebuilding, rearming, and reinvesting" in Canada's military.
• The remarks by Canadian officials come after North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Secretary General Mark Rutte said he expected members of his Western defence alliance, including Canada, to grow their annual defence spending to a level equivalent to 5% of each nation's GDP, up from 2% previously.

(Source: BBC News)

• For the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, Kingston Wharves Limited (KWL) reported a 6.7% year-over-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, to J$796.9Mn. The improved bottom line was supported by robust topline growth.
• Total revenue for Q1 2025 rose 9.6% year-over-year to J$2.82Bn, compared to J$2.57Bn in the prior year, driven primarily by strong gains in the Terminal Operations and Logistics Services Divisions.
• The Terminal Operations Division delivered an impressive performance, generating J$2.1Bn in revenues, an increase of 18% or J$316Mn relative to Q1 2024. Operating profit for the division also rose by 18% to J$596Mn, buoyed by a notable increase in transshipment activities, a strategic priority for KWL.
• The Logistics Services Division saw more moderate growth; it recorded J$1.0Bn in revenues, representing a modest 4% year-over-year increase. However, operating profit declined by 33%, falling to J$250Mn from J$375Mn in Q1 2024. The decline reflects, in part, the reallocation of certain head office charges to the division to enhance visibility into its true operating performance and to promote cost discipline. Additionally, a softening in Less-than-Container Load (LCL) and logistics activities, tied to wider economic pressures in Jamaica and key trading partners, weighed on profitability.
• Despite the drag from Logistics Services, consolidated operating profit climbed 6.7% to J$796.5Mn. However, this was tempered by a sharp rise in finance costs, which more than doubled to J$78.3Mn for the quarter. The rise in KWL’s finance costs for Q1 was likely due to higher interest expenses, supported by a 46.5% increase in short-term debt between the first quarters of 2024 and 2025.
• Looking ahead, KWL remains strategically well-positioned. The company continues to partner with local freight forwarders and global operators to ensure reliable, flexible service, while pursuing new growth opportunities. Its diversified, multi-purpose business model helps buffer the impact of cyclical shifts in cargo volumes, and recent investments in cargo-handling infrastructure and digital systems are improving efficiency and service quality.
• KWL’s stock has declined 8.8% year-to-date, closing at J$30.00 at Tuesday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.9x, which is higher than the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector’s average of 15.6x.

(Sources: Kingston Wharves Limited & NCBCM Research Limited)

• A regulatory shift in New England, USA, could ripple all the way to Trinidad and Tobago, potentially impacting LNG exports, the Energy Chamber warned yesterday, as it highlighted how interconnected the global energy market has become.
• The Energy Chamber, in a blog entitled: 'New York wind farms, pipelines and Trinidad LNG', stated that despite the USA being the world's largest LNG exporter, the world's biggest economy still imported 0.3Bn cubic meters (bcm) of LNG from Trinidad and Tobago in 2023.
• And New England has continued to rely on imported LNG to meet demand during peak periods, the blog stated. 'This is because local environmental opposition at the state level in New York and surrounding states has prevented the construction of gas transmission pipelines to bring gas from producing areas like Pennsylvania to consumers in the northeast.
• Cargoes flagged in certain countries cannot serve U.S. domestic LNG routes: “LNG export facilities on the U.S. Gulf Coast are also unable to ship LNG to Boston because U.S. legislation—the Jones Act—requires that only U.S.-flagged LNG carriers can move cargoes between U.S. ports. Most carriers, however, are flagged in countries such as Japan, Liberia, Panama, Bermuda, and Malaysia. As a result, Trinidad, being the next nearest source of LNG, has continued to supply the U.S., despite the shale gas revolution,” it stated.
• However, the Energy Chamber warned this could soon change. 'Recent reports from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg suggest that there are moves to overcome the environmental opposition to new natural gas transmission pipelines linking consumers in New England with the producers further south and west,' it stated.
• 'Furthermore, the greenlighting of the massive Empire offshore wind project located about 15 miles south of Long Island and spanning 80,000 acres, notwithstanding President Trump's well-documented opposition to wind turbines, will supply an additional 810 MW of clean electricity to the northeast', The Energy Chamber stated. That said, exports to the U.S. account for only 3% of Trinidad’s total LNG exports, with strong demand remaining in key markets, particularly Europe and Asia.

(Source: CariCris)

• Moody’s Investor Services (Moody’s) has maintained the Republic of Panama’s sovereign rating at Baa3 with a negative outlook following the completion of its periodic review. This is unchanged from the previous assessment. According to the Moody’s report, Panama’s rating is supported by its strong economic growth, the strategic role of the Panama Canal, and its track record of sustained investment, all of which continue to support the country’s macroeconomic resilience.
• Panama’s economic growth remained at 2.9% in 2024, despite the negative impact of the closure of the Cobre Panamá mining project. Against this background, Moody’s projects a 4.0% recovery by 2025, driven by increased Canal activity and a dynamic private sector.
• However, Moody’s highlighted that the pension system reform, while strengthening long-term sustainability, entails greater fiscal contributions from the State, which could limit room for maneuver on other budgetary fronts.
• Furthermore, the fiscal deterioration observed in 2024, when the deficit reached 7.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and public debt rose to 62% of GDP from 56% in 2023, poses significant challenges for fiscal consolidation. Although the government has shown a willingness to implement structural reforms, including the recent approval of the pension system reform, budgetary rigidities persist that could hinder a substantial deficit reduction in the short term.
• The negative outlook reflects the risks associated with a likely stagnation in fiscal consolidation and the possibility of rising sovereign financing costs, if the credibility of fiscal policy is not strengthened. The rating could be stabilised if the government succeeds in implementing credible measures to reduce the deficit and improve fiscal transparency.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The United Kingdom (UK), France and Canada have warned Israel they will take "concrete actions" if it continues an "egregious" expansion of military operations in Gaza.
• Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, joined the French and Canadian leaders to call on the Israeli government to "stop its military operations" and "immediately allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza". No food, fuel or medicine had been allowed into Gaza since March 2, a situation the United Nations (UN) previously described as taking a "disastrous toll" on the Palestinian population.
• Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by saying the three leaders had offered a "huge prize" for Hamas in the Gaza war. On Sunday, May 25, 22025, Netanyahu said his country would allow a "basic amount of food" to enter the territory after an 11-week-long blockade, but it planned to take "control of all of Gaza".
• The three Western leaders criticised this as "wholly inadequate" as the "denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population is unacceptable and risks breaching International Humanitarian Law". They added that the level of suffering in Gaza was "intolerable".
• The statement from the UK, France and Canada reiterated support for a ceasefire as well as the implementation of a "two-state solution", which proposes an independent Palestinian state which would exist alongside Israel.
• Netanyahu hit back at the suggestion: "By asking Israel to end a defensive war for our survival before Hamas terrorists on our border are destroyed and by demanding a Palestinian state, the leaders in London, Ottawa and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 while inviting more such atrocities." He also called on "all European leaders" to follow US President Donald "Trump's vision" for ending the conflict.

(Source: BBC News)

• Despite strong revenue growth, Seprod’s earnings declined, with net profit attributable to shareholders falling 29.4% year-over-year to J$867Mn, down from J$1.23Bn in Q1 2024.
• Seprod posted a robust 31.9% increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching J$37.70Bn compared to J$28.59Bn in the prior year. This growth was primarily fueled by the ongoing expansion of its distribution segment, particularly through the consolidation of Caribbean Producers Jamaica (CPJ). Seprod now owns 80.0% of CPJ following a mandatory takeover bid.
• Direct expenses rose by 30.9% (or J$6.52Bn), slightly below the pace of growth in revenues, leading to a marginal improvement in gross margin to 26.7%, up from 26.2% in Q1 2024.
• However, operating and finance costs climbed significantly, rising by 46.8% and 44.6%, respectively. The increase in operating expenses reflects the larger operational footprint post-acquisition, including higher staffing costs, expanded logistics requirements, and increased administrative overheads associated with managing a more complex, multi-jurisdictional business.
• Finance costs were driven by additional debt incurred to finance the acquisitions of CPJ and A.S. Bryden. As a result, operating profit remained flat year-over-year at J$2.39Bn. Consequently, while top-line performance was impressive, bottom-line growth was stymied by increased cost pressures, particularly higher finance costs.
• Nonetheless, the substantial increase in assets underscores Seprod’s expanded scale and positions the company for continued growth if it can realise synergies from its acquisitions. Management remains focused on enhancing productivity, improving operational efficiency, and lowering finance costs going forward to drive profitability.
• Seprod’s stock price has declined by 6.3% year-to-date, closing at $81.71 as at Monday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.15x, which is higher than the Main Market Distribution and Manufacturing Sector’s average of 16.0x.

(Sources: Seprod Limited & NCBCM Research Limited)

• The Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) is reporting that its Boosting Innovation, Growth and Entrepreneurship Ecosystems (BIGEE) programme has yielded positive results within the micro, small and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) sector.
• “We have seen an average increase of 25 percent in sales for the companies that we have worked with and a 15 percent increase in employment, and they have gone on to raise an additional $100Mn in additional funding to go into their businesses,” said BIGEE Programme Manager, Christopher Brown.
• “So, we are seeing tangible results from the investments that we have made over the last five years,” he added, while addressing the recent media launch of the ‘Marijuata’ bottled water at Spike Industries Limited’s Winward Road manufacturing plant in Kingston.
• The objective is to strengthen Jamaica’s entrepreneurial ecosystem and support MSMEs through funding, technical assistance, and mentorship. Under BIGEE, the DBJ has created a Venture Capital Fund and an Angel Fund to provide additional funding options for entrepreneurs. Approximately US$4.9 million has been allocated to the Venture Capital Fund and US$2 million to the Angel Fund.
• “We are diversifying the landscape of financing, not just traditional debt, where you have to go to the bank to borrow money, but other ways of getting financing into your businesses,” Mr. Brown said. Noting the importance of BIGEE, the Programme Manager said that “innovation should not be the privilege of a few. It should be an opportunity for many. We empower our youth, our entrepreneurs, and our institutions to innovate. The effects will multiply, not just economically but socially and globally”.
• Initially scheduled to conclude in March 2025, Phase I of the BIGEE Programme has been extended to September 2026.

(Source: JIS)

• The Government of Bahamas recorded a $58.60Mn fiscal surplus in February 2025, a nearly nine-fold increase over the $6.90Mn surplus posted in the same month last year, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Finance in its monthly fiscal summary report for February.
• The stronger performance was driven by a 20.8 % rise in revenue, which totaled $292.90Mn for the month, and a slight decline in overall spending, which fell by 0.5 % to $234.40Mn. Tax revenue continued to anchor the Government’s income stream, growing by 14.1 % year-over-year to reach $241.10Mn.
• Value-added tax (VAT) collections rose by $11.50Mn to $103.20Mn, buoyed by increased activity in the domestic goods and services sector. Non-tax revenue surged by 66.5 %, or $20.70Mn, to $51.80Mn, primarily because of higher dividends and surplus fees collected from the banking sector.
• On the expenditure side, recurrent outlays rose modestly by 2.6 % to $220.90Mn. This included a $9Mn increase in subsidies, which totaled $32.50Mn for the month, and a $3Mn rise in the use of goods and services, now at $57.20Mn. Public debt interest payments declined by $2.50Mn to $23.10Mn.
• However, social assistance and pension payments fell by $4.90Mn to $18.30Mn. Capital expenditure also increased from $6.80Mn to $13.40Mn in February. Meanwhile, the Government’s overall debt increased by an estimated $28.70Mn during the period.
• While the monthly numbers showed fiscal improvement, Opposition Shadow Finance Minister J. Kwasi Thompson criticized the broader direction of government spending, pointing to what he called a troubling $9.60Mn cut to social assistance over the first eight months of the fiscal year.

(Source: EYEWITNESS News)

• Venezuelans on Sunday voted to elect a governor and other lawmakers for Essequibo, an oil-rich region internationally recognized as part of Guyana but long claimed by Caracas. The vote marked the first time Venezuelans have elected officials for the territory, despite the absence of participation from Essequibo’s 125,000 residents.
• The election, described by Guyanese President Irfaan Ali as “scandalous, false, propagandistic and opportunistic,” has sharply escalated an already tense border dispute. The vote installed a new governor, six deputies to Venezuela’s National Assembly, and seven members to a regional legislative assembly, all for a region over which Venezuela has no administrative control.
• It is unclear how the officials, once elected, plan on running the territory, which Guyana governs. Only 42.63% of eligible voters showed up. Many polling stations across the country were nearly empty, especially in urban centers. The ruling party, PSUV, led by Maduro, still secured a sweeping victory, winning 23 out of 24 governor races.
• The move is the latest flashpoint in a territorial saga that dates back more than a century. It comes over a year after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro declared the creation of a 24th state called “Guayana Esequiba” within the disputed territory, following a national referendum supporting the annexation bid.
• Guyana, which has administered the region since gaining independence in 1966, remains on high alert. The country, with a military force of fewer than 5,000 troops, has ramped up defense ties with the United States in response to Venezuela’s aggressive posture.
• Venezuela’s claim hinges on the argument that Essequibo was part of its borders during Spanish colonial times, and it has long rejected the 1899 arbitration ruling that delineated the boundary when Guyana was still a British colony. The stakes in the dispute have intensified since the discovery of large offshore oil reserves in Guyana’s waters, making the country one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers and a future leader in per capita oil output.
• As the territorial dispute heads back to the international legal stage and the political rhetoric on both sides intensifies, the future of Essequibo remains at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical standoff.

 (Source: Caribbean National Weekly)