• Fitch Solutions has made several revisions to its 2025 forecasts for the United States (U.S.) economy since April, given significant tariff volatility. Despite continued uncertainty, the agency now believes the worst has passed from a trade perspective. However, given the recent rise in tariffs, there are risks that the average effective tariff rate will end the year higher than the previous estimate of 13.0-14.0%.
• Fitch continues to forecast U.S. growth for 2025 at 1.5% since revising it in early June. This is in line with consensus, which has risen from 1.4% to 1.5% over the same period. Furthermore, expectations are for a somewhat sluggish recovery in growth to 1.7% in 2026, in part due to the drag from growth in 2025.
• That said, Fitch has lowered its end-2025 inflation forecast from 4.0% to 3.3% y-o-y. This outlook is hinged on the estimate that a 13%-14% tariff rate will add about 1.0-1.5 percentage points (pp) to overall inflation. However, this will be partially offset by the fact that only about a third of it will be passed on to the consumer as some of the tariffs will be absorbed by the exporter as well as the importer, according to Fitch.
• Additionally, although oil prices rallied sharply in response to the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran, they are still about 14.5% below their January highs, which will exert downside pressure on prices and help anchor inflation and inflation expectations through the remainder of the year.
• As a result of slightly stronger growth and above-target inflation, Fitch believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.00% by year-end. The first cut will likely be in September, and then the Fed will likely wait until December to make the next cut, although they could act sooner at the October meeting if the labour market weakens. This will be followed by another 50bps of cuts to a terminal rate of 3.50% by mid-2026. That said, markets are pricing in a slightly more dovish path for interest rates following dovish comments by some members of the Federal Open Market Committee in June.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• On July 15, 2025, the Board of Directors of Image Plus Consultants Limited (IPCL) advised that the company reached an agreement with Dr Verna Reid for IPCL to acquire the assets and brand of The Woman’s Place (TWP).
• TWP is a Jamaican company, incorporated and domiciled locally, and has been providing medical imaging services since 2006, with a strong focus on mammography. TWP, led by Dr Verna Reid, has built a reputation as a trusted provider in its field and has maintained a solid track record of financial performance, according to IPCL in a notice published on the website of the Jamaica Stock Exchange.
• “This marks an important step forward for our business,” said Kisha Anderson, CEO of IPCL. “We look forward to continuing to serve the patients of The Woman’s Place under the Apex Radiology banner, while broadening access and enhancing what they have come to expect in terms of care and service. We anticipate ongoing patient satisfaction, profit and operational benefits as we incorporate these resources into our service offerings.”
• That said, the proposed acquisition is subject to the successful execution of a definitive sale and purchase agreement. The company noted that, once concluded, further information will be shared through market disclosures.
• Dr Karlene McDonnough, Chairman of the board, noted that the acquisition is aligned with IPCL’s growth priorities: “The addition of these assets and the established brand fits neatly into our plans to inorganically grow market share and enhance our service offering in this specialised area of diagnostic imaging. We are also elated that Dr Reid will continue to offer her caring services to patients as a part of the team of committed Consultant Radiologists at Apex Radiology.”

(Source: JSE)

• TransJamaican Highway Limited (TJH), in a notice published on the website of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, has noted that shareholders who originally purchased shares in United States dollars (USD) are now able to receive dividend payments in USD currency, rather than in Jamaican dollars (JMD). The change came as TJH noted that they understood the importance of investors receiving their dividends in the currency that they invested in.
• If investors wish for future dividends in USD, they must submit a written request to the Jamaica Central Securities Depository (JCSD) Limited, asking to be added to the “TJH Special USD Elect Listing.”
• However, before clients make this election, please take note of the following:
• For shareholders with NCB USD accounts, payments will be made electronically via ELINK upload. Currently, there are no bank charges associated with this transaction.
• For shareholders with USD accounts at other local banks, payments will be made by USD cheque and sent to the recipient’s Bank for processing.
• Shareholders may also opt to have dividends paid via Wire Transfer to their USD Bank account. For Shareholders who are requesting the wire transfer option, please note that:
• This is subject to a wire transfer fee (determined by your bank). The applicable wire transfer fee will be deducted from the dividend amount.
• For shareholders with USD accounts receiving dividends of less than the wire transfer fee: Payments will be made by USD cheque and sent to the recipient’s Bank for processing.

• Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America grew by 7.1% in 2024 to $188.96 billion, but new investment interest has stagnated, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• FDI is a key driver of economic growth in Latin America, but a lack of new investment has raised concerns about the region’s long-term competitiveness and appeal to foreign investors. FDI inflows in 2024 rose 7.1% from 2023, representing 13.7% of gross fixed capital formation and 2.8% of GDP. However, these figures remained below the 16.8% and 3.3%, respectively, recorded during the 2010s.
• Brazil received the largest share of FDI at 38%, followed by Mexico with 24%. Argentina saw a 44% increase in natural resource investments, while Guyana experienced a 43% rise due to more spending in its hydrocarbon sector.
• ECLAC urged Latin American governments to focus on strategies that sustain investor interest, particularly as manufacturing investment rises and services decline. The region may need to adapt to global tariff changes and reconfigure value chains to stay competitive.

(Source: Reuters)

• During the first half of 2025, Dominicans living abroad sent a total of US$5.83 billion in remittances to the country, an 11.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the Central Bank.
• The National District and Santo Domingo province together accounted for 46.2% of the total, with the National District alone receiving 38.2%. Santiago followed with 12.5%, and Santo Domingo province with 8.0%, underscoring the dominance of the metropolitan areas, which collectively received 58.7% of all remittances.
• Regionally, the Northern region received 12.7%, the Eastern region 7.9%, and the Southern region 6.0%. In June alone, remittances totalled US$923.8Mn, representing a 7.9% increase from June 2024.
• The Central Bank highlighted that this strong inflow of foreign currency has helped maintain exchange rate stability. By the end of June 2025, the Dominican peso had depreciated only 2.1% compared to the end of 2024.
• Additionally, these remittances contributed to a healthy level of international reserves, which stood at US$14.79Bn, equivalent to 11.3% of GDP and covering 5.4 months of imports, surpassing IMF-recommended levels.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The Bank of England (BoE) has asked some lenders to test their resilience to potential U.S. dollar shocks, the latest sign of how the Trump administration's policies are eroding trust in the U.S. as a bedrock of financial stability.
• As the leading currency for global trade and capital flows, the U.S. dollar is the lifeblood of global finance. However, President Donald Trump's break from long-standing U.S. policy in areas such as free trade and defence has forced policymakers to consider whether the emergency provision of dollars in times of financial stress can still be relied on.
• The BoE requested that some lenders assess their dollar funding plans and the degree to which they depend on the U.S. currency, including for short-term needs, and scenarios where the U.S. dollar swap market could dry up entirely. It is believed that no bank could withstand such a shock for more than a few days, given the dominance of the dollar in the global financial system and lenders' dependence on it.
• Furthermore, should dollar borrowing become harder to obtain and more expensive for banks, it could hamper their ability to carry on meeting demands for cash. Ultimately, a bank that struggles to gain access to dollars could fail to meet depositor requests, undermining confidence and triggering further outflows.
• While the U.S. Federal Reserve has said that it wants to continue to make dollars available in the financial system, Trump's policy shifts have prompted European allies to reexamine their dependence on Washington. Meanwhile, Trump's repeated criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and reports that the central bank chief may get fired are raising concerns of a loss of independence at the Fed and the repercussions on the dollar.
• The BoE has in the past asked banks how they would ensure a supply of dollars during times of stress, as in a 2019 system-wide check on banks' liquidity during a crisis, but the renewed focus on the U.S. currency showed how Trump's actions have revived such concerns. While global banks can tap U.S. dollar deposits to withstand temporary shortfalls, regulators worry that international banks remain exposed to dollar risk.

(Source: Reuters)

• Japan's exports fell for a second straight month, dropping 0.5% year-on-year, as sweeping U.S. tariffs took a toll on the country's manufacturers, with its fragile economy exposed to greater risks from the global trade war in the coming months. Japan failed to clinch a deal with the U.S. before the July 9, 2025, expiration of the temporary pause on the country-specific tariffs after it focused on eliminating the existing sectoral 25% tariffs on automobiles, a mainstay of the export-reliant economy.
• "The tariff impact is likely to intensify in coming months, when the tariff rate is finalised and Japanese companies begin to fully pass on costs to consumers in the U.S., which would hamper the competitiveness of Japanese products there," Daiwa Institute of Research economist Koki Akimoto said.
• Nonetheless, the volume of automobile shipments rose 3.4%, indicating Japanese automakers are cutting prices on exported cars and absorbing tariff costs to stay competitive. "Japanese automakers have so far kept production levels by sacrificing margins, so the tariff impact on their production activities has been limited," Koya Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, said. However, Daiwa's Akimoto noted that Japanese companies would be forced to raise prices eventually, as trade negotiations drag on and the yen stays relatively strong.
• The U.S. tariffs are adding to pressure on the Japanese economy, which is struggling due to lacklustre domestic consumption. Japan's economy shrank in the first quarter as rising living costs hurt demand. Further, prolonged uncertainties over the impact of the tariffs and the course of trade negotiations will likely force the Bank of Japan to keep focusing on downside risks to the economy and to put rate hikes on hold for the time being, analysts say.

(Source: Reuters)

• Guardian Holdings Ltd (GHL), on July 15, 2025, announced that its board of directors had approved the acquisition of the pension fund management portfolio of NCB Insurance Agency & Fund Management Ltd on July 11.
• The pension fund management portfolio was acquired by Guardian Life Ltd (GLL), which is GHL’s life, health and pension business based in Jamaica. The transaction involves related parties as NCB Financial Group (NCBFG) owns 61.77% of GHL and 100% of NCB Insurance Agency & Fund Management Ltd.
• In a notice published on the website of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, GHL described the transaction as a strategic initiative, adding that the acquisition “is expected to deliver strategic and financial value to GLL and by extension the group, strengthen market position and grow Shareholder value in the medium to long term.”
• In September 2020, NCBFG streamlined its Jamaican insurance business through the transfer of the insurance and annuities portfolios of NCB Insurance Company Limited to fellow subsidiary Guardian Life Ltd.
• Following the transfer of the portfolios, NCBIC changed its name to NCB Insurance Agency & Fund Management, as the company continues to provide pension fund administration and investment management services.

(Sources: JSE, Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• Kingston Wharves Limited (KW) announced on July 15, 2025, that it has acquired a 27.126% stake in Cargo Handlers Limited (CHL) as it continues its expansion into Western Jamaica. This now makes KW the second largest shareholder in the Montego Bay company, and CHL an associate company^[1] of KW.
• The acquisition was made for investment purposes as KW, in its press release, noted that Cargo Handlers Limited is well-positioned to both contribute to and benefit from important national trends, namely, the prospects for growth in logistics generally and for the ongoing development of Jamaica’s North Coast.
• That said, KW received an option to acquire additional shares, which, if exercised, would increase its ownership in the company by an additional 13%. The company noted that it will be evaluating opportunities for continued investment in CHL stock in line with its investment goals and the needs and prospects of CHL.
• However, it does not immediately intend to make any significant sales (or purchases) of stock units in CHL. As such, KW does not plan to seek control of CHL or to acquire a majority shareholding in the company.

(Source: JSE)

^[1] An associate company is a business where another company holds a significant but non-controlling stake, typically between 20% and 50% of the voting shares.

• Trinidad and Tobago’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.8% from June 2024 to June 2025, slightly accelerating from a 1.7% rise in the year to May 2025.
• CPI excluding energy and unprocessed food, grew by 2.0% in the 12 months to June 2025. The divisions with the largest increases in the 12 months to June 2025 were Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+4.6%) and Recreation & Culture (+3.5%).
• The divisions to record the largest declines when compared with June 2024 were Clothing & Footwear (-2.3%) and Transport (-2.0%).
• Between May and June 2025, consumer prices increased by 0.5%, mainly driven by rises in Recreation & Culture (3.6%) and Transport (1.2%), while Clothing & Footwear (-0.5%) and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (0.4%) saw the largest declines.

(Source: Central Statistics Office)