• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the Issuer/Corporate credit ratings of CariA- and CariA (Foreign and Local Currency Rating) on the regional rating scale, and jmAA+ on the Jamaica national scale to the Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ). The ratings include a single notch up for the likelihood of support, if needed, from the Government of Jamaica (GOJ).
• The regional-scale foreign and local currency ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of PAJ, relative to peers in the Caribbean, is good, while the national scale ratings indicate that PAJ’s creditworthiness, relative to peers in Jamaica, is high.
• CariCRIS also assigned a stable outlook to the ratings, reflecting the high likelihood that PAJ will maintain its profitability and credit metrics over the next 12–15 months. This is supported by solid cargo operations, institutional stability from PAJ’s legislative mandate, and ongoing infrastructure modernisation across the cargo, cruise, and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) business lines.
• A gradual improvement in global economic activity, with strengthening global cargo and cruise market conditions, is expected to sustain revenue generation and operating performance. Consequently, PAJ is projected to maintain sound financial metrics, stable cash flow generation, strong capitalisation, and adequate debt service capacity over the next 12 – 15 months.
• Changes in operating and financial fundamentals, as well as external conditions, are factors that could lead to a rating change on the PAJ. If Jamaica’s credit rating improves over the next 12–15 months or if PAJ demonstrates stronger performance with increased revenue or profitability, sustaining a Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) above 2x over the next two years, PAJ could be upgraded.  However, if the agency experiences adverse changes to concession agreements that reduce guaranteed revenues, or from weakening financial metrics, including DSCR falling to 1.5x or below or Return on Assets (ROA) to 3.3% or below for two consecutive years, it could be downgraded.
• Notably, the recent rating affirmation disclosed that the PAJ has shelved the planned listing of its BPO assets on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) due to prevailing market conditions. The PAJ will instead concentrate its efforts on the Caymanas Special Economic Zone (SEZ), on which it intends to spend $8.88Bn in the current March 2027 fiscal year.
• As early as 2021, the PAJ had indicated plans to list an entity which would manage its  BPO real estate assets totalling 852,276 square feet. These assets were situated at SEZs in Montego Bay and the Portmore Informatics Park. The privatisation effort was being handled by the Development Bank of Jamaica, which handles public-private partnership (PPP) transactions. The monetisation of these assets was expected to support investments into other critical projects.

(Sources: CariCRIS & Jamaica Observer)

• Guyana has opened up an estimated US$340Mn in gas-based investment opportunities linked to the Wales Gas-to-Energy project, with the government noting that local investors will be prioritised.
• According to the Department of Public Information (DPI), the Office of the Prime Minister invited expressions of interest for two projects to be located near the Wales Gas-to-Energy 300 megawatts (MW) power plant and associated natural gas liquids (NGL) separation plant on the West Bank of Demerara.
• The ventures include the Guyana Ammonia and Urea Plant Inc. (GAUP), estimated at US$300Mn, and the Guyana Gas Bottling and Logistics Company (GGBLC), valued at about US$40Mn. Both proposed projects were previously advertised and received submissions. The National Procurement and Tender Administration Board (NPTAB) reported that for both the GAUP and GGBLC, 10 groups submitted proposals, with Lindsayca, the company constructing the Gas-to-Energy plants at Wales, vying for both.
• The government said it is targeting investments of up to US$5 million per investor for the GAUP project and up to US$1Mn per investor for the GGBLC, though interested parties may propose higher amounts. Both projects are expected to operate as private companies and will offer a government-guaranteed annual return of 10%.
• DPI said Guyanese investors, including those in the diaspora, will be given priority as part of efforts to broaden local participation in the country’s emerging gas-based industries.
• The projects form part of Guyana’s wider strategy to monetize offshore natural gas resources by developing downstream industries, including fertilizer production and gas distribution, aimed at supporting agriculture, energy access and industrial growth.
• The Gas-to-Energy plants are expected to be completed by the end of 2026, the government has said. First gas through a pipeline installed by ExxonMobil in 2024 is expected to follow after completion, as the government moves to reduce emissions associated with power generation and slash electricity rates. 

(Source: OilNow)

• Trinidadian capital is flooding into Barbados's property market, driven by a search for safer streets and steadier returns, which is squeezing domestic buyers out of an already strained housing stock and pushing rents and sale prices higher. Realtors note that while Trinidadian investment is not new in the country, it is now manifesting more visibly in housing as buyers purchase properties and settle families and loved ones on the island.
• The pressure on housing stock has been compounded by earlier pandemic-era initiatives such as the Welcome Stamp, which positioned Barbados as a premier destination for expatriates and remote workers. This popularity has had the secondary effect of tightening available housing stock, with regional and international interest now placing unprecedented pressure on the local market.
• The rental market is bearing the brunt of the squeeze, with Gary Ramsey (Director of Operations at Ramsey Real Estate) describing "severe shortages of rentals across the board," which complicates the search for suitable homes for local Barbadians. On the sales side, supply-and-demand dynamics are driving prices upward, as investor demand, whether for rentals or outright purchases, creates steady competition with the local market.
• Local buyers are at a structural disadvantage in negotiations, as they typically require financing, while foreign demand often arrives with cash, pre-financing, or significant deposits. Given the time it takes to move through Barbadian financial and legal institutions, this gives foreign buyers a timing edge. In the affordable and middle-income price ranges, where supply is already thin, the "most attractive buyer" with immediate cash tends to move to the head of the queue.
• Human security, not just financial returns, is a primary motivator for Trinidadian buyers, according to long-time real estate professional Julie Dash, who confirmed inquiries from Trinidad have spiked over the past two years. Buyers view Barbados as "relatively safe" and are looking for a sanctuary for their families rather than simply a place to park capital.
• The government has begun focusing on mandates for affordable housing and creative financing to support local demand, with new residential developments being planned "north to south, east to west" according to Ramsey. However, experts warn that construction takes time, and in the short term the market remains "highly competitive," with Barbados continuing to stand out as a robust destination for regional investors seeking both financial stability and a secure lifestyle.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• On Tuesday, April 21, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend the ceasefire with Iran hours before it was set to expire, while maintaining a blockade over ships coming to and from Iran. The extension was intended to allow both sides to continue peace talks until Iran submits a new proposal and discussions are concluded.
• Despite the ceasefire extension, tensions have escalated materially, with Iranian gunboats firing on and seizing multiple vessels on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, including a cargo ship and a container ship, in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening control over the strategic waterway even as ceasefire conditions remain in place.
• This marks the first seizure of ships since the war began at the end of February 2026 and the latest in a series of maritime incidents, highlighting a clear deterioration in security along a critical global trade route. Consequently, traffic through Hormuz, which normally carries around one-fifth of global crude flows, has slowed to a near halt, while U.S. enforcement actions, including vessel interceptions, continue to disrupt shipping activity and constrain supply.
• Oil markets reacted immediately, with Brent crude rising above $100 per barrel, as investors priced in renewed supply risks amid the escalation and lack of diplomatic progress.
• Meanwhile, Iran has signalled it will not reopen the strait while the blockade remains and may attempt to break it by force, while U.S. officials have indicated restrictions will stay in place until negotiations are concluded, reinforcing the risk of further confrontation.
• Overall, the combination of a fragile, largely tactical ceasefire and ongoing maritime disruptions suggests limited prospects for near-term de-escalation, with restricted flows through Hormuz expected to keep oil markets tight and prices supported even beyond any eventual resolution.

(Sources: Reuters, Yahoo Finance & Bloomberg)

• President Trump said the U.S. is considering offering financial support to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), an oil-rich ally dealing with economic fallout from the war with Iran. This highlights growing concerns that the conflict is beginning to strain even well-capitalised economies in the region.
• The war has damaged oil and gas infrastructure across the Middle East, disrupting economies that rely on the Strait of Hormuz to transport crude globally. Given that the Strait carries a significant share of global oil supply, these disruptions pose risks to energy security and global supply chains.
• The fact that the UAE has inquired about assistance is notable given its wealth, underscoring the severity and cascading effects of the conflict across oil-dependent economies. This suggests that the economic impact is broad-based and not limited to weaker regional players.
• U.S. officials indicated that any support would aim to deter further attacks and stabilise energy markets, although it remains unclear whether assistance will ultimately be required. The potential use of tools such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund signals a willingness to intervene to contain financial and market instability.
• Some economists suggest the request may be more of a political signal than a financial necessity, as the UAE still maintains strong reserves and a currency peg to the U.S. dollar. This points to the geopolitical dimension of the request, including efforts to reinforce strategic alliances.
• The developments underscore the broader global economic impact of the war, with energy disruptions spreading across regions and increasing pressure on oil-dependent economies. Elevated energy prices and supply uncertainty could feed into higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, and slower global growth, particularly for import-dependent emerging markets.

(Source: NY Times)

• The Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) has released its first set of tourism data for 2026, confirming a sharp contraction in visitor arrivals in the aftermath of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa.
• Stopover arrivals declined steeply at the start of the year, falling 35.5% in January and 27.1% in February relative to the previous corresponding months in 2025. This resulted in a 31.4% year-to-date (YTD) contraction, with total visitors dropping to 321,395 compared with 468,235 in the same period of 2025, highlighting the severity of the post-disaster demand shock.
• The downturn was broad-based across Jamaica’s main source markets, led by a 37.5% decline in United States (U.S.) arrivals, alongside declines from Canada (-29.6%) and Europe (-14.6%). In contrast, smaller but resilient gains from Latin America (+5.7%) and Asia (+6.9%) offered only marginal support, highlighting early signs of diversification despite the broader downturn.
• Despite reduced volumes, the structure of the market share remains largely unchanged, with the U.S. accounting for 60.5% of stopover visitors, followed by Canada (19.0%) and the United Kingdom (9.1%). This mix reinforces Jamaica’s continued reliance on North American travel demand to anchor the recovery and the tourism industry.
• Cruise travel also declined 5.9% YTD January-February to 161,157 arrivals, reflecting an 8.9% and 2.7% decline in January and February, respectively. Encouragingly, all of Jamaica’s cruise ports and airports are now operational, with the island’s tourism hubs fully functioning, including Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, and Kingston, signalling improving supply-side conditions.
• The latest data came as no surprise given that the tourism shock had already contributed to a 7.1% contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica. Within the Services Industry, Accommodation and Food Services plunged 31.0%, as hotel closures in the western parishes coincided with a 43.0% decline in foreign arrivals to the island, while Transport and Storage declined by 7.5%, reflecting reduced airport activity and lower tourism-related travel.
• Furthermore, according to Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett, Jamaica recorded over one million tourist arrivals in Q1 2026^[1]. This represented a decline of roughly 18.0% year-over-year; however, the country generated approximately $956Mn in tourism receipts, suggesting some resilience in visitor spending despite lower volumes.
• That said, Jamaica Carnival 2026 is anticipated to contribute positively to the tourism numbers for April, providing a much needed tailwind to the otherwise subdued YTD performance. Of note, the 2025 staging of the event generated a J$7.7Bn in direct expenditure, while producing an overall J$165.7Bn boost to the local economy.
• Looking ahead, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projects a gradual recovery in 2026, with GDP growth expected in the 1.0%–3.0% range for fiscal year 2026/27 as reconstruction progresses and tourism capacity is restored. However, the outlook remains subject to downside risks, including elevated global commodity prices and the pace of rebuilding in key resort areas, which will ultimately impact how quickly visitor flows normalise.

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¹This announcement was made by the Minster at the diaspora reception held at the Embassy of Jamaica in Washington, D.C. on April 8, during which he credited the diaspora as among the country’s most influential ambassadors and unveiling a landmark tourism milestone.

(Sources: The Jamaica Tourism Board, WIC News, Bank of Jamaica, STATIN)

• Farmers across several parishes are set to benefit from a new round of fertiliser and planting material support, as the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) strengthens recovery efforts in partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The initiative forms part of a broader push to restore agricultural production post-Hurricane Melissa, with a clear focus on helping farmers return to the fields and restore output.
• Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Floyd Green, said the effort reflects ongoing work to engage farmers across the island and provide the support needed to get production back on track. The latest phase of assistance was highlighted during a handover ceremony at the Trelawny branch of the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA) in Hague.
• Under the initiative, approximately 600 bags of fertiliser are being distributed, alongside seeds for crops such as cabbage, carrot, cucumber, sweet pepper, onion, tomato, watermelon and corn. The inputs are intended to fast-track replanting while supporting both short-term recovery and sustained food production.
• The FAO’s representative for Jamaica, the Bahamas and Belize, Ana Touza, explained that the fertiliser will assist farmers across six parishes as they work to restore their fields and livelihoods. She also pointed to the central role of RADA in ensuring the efficient distribution of supplies to affected communities.
• The intervention is part of a wider, coordinated programme that combines immediate assistance with longer-term resilience planning for the agricultural sector. With partnerships playing a key role in expanding the reach of support, the recovery effort is expected to strengthen output and stability. The rebound in agriculture has also contributed to inflation declining faster than expected since the start of 2026.
• The distribution of fertiliser also comes at a critical time for local farmers, as energy prices have faced upward pressure due to the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, which has contributed to higher fertiliser prices. Of note, over the past three years (2023-2025), the Gulf countries were the single biggest regional exporter of urea and ammonia (both nitrogen-based), and the second largest regional exporter of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) fertilisers.
• Therefore, any sustained reduction in LNG production and/or shipments from the Gulf (Qatar supplies around 10% of globally traded natural gas) will have significant implications for nitrogen fertiliser production worldwide1. As such, this support will help to cushion Jamaican farmers from external shocks and facilitate continued production despite volatile international conditions.

___________________

¹Natural gas is both a key feedstock and the primary energy source for producing ammonia, the building block for all nitrogen fertilisers. Jamaica primarily imports mineral or chemical fertilisers, including nitrogenous, potassic, and compound fertilisers, with total imports valued at US$12.45Mn in 2023, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected mixed economic performance across the Caribbean Community (Caricom) over the next two years, with growth expected to range widely between tourism-dependent states and commodity exporters. Nigel Chalk, Director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, said projections span from 3.1% among tourism-dependent countries to 19.1% among commodity exporters.
• He also noted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will have "unambiguously negative economic impacts for both economic activity and the population." Tourism-driven economies are likely to be among the hardest hit due to high debt levels and heavy reliance on imported energy, with net energy imports averaging around 6.0% of GDP.
• According to IMF projections, the Caribbean region as a whole is expected to record average growth of 5.7% in 2026 and 8.6% in 2027. Tourism-dependent Caribbean economies are forecast to grow by 0.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, while non-tourism-dependent economies are expected to perform more strongly at 7.9% and 11.3% over the same period. Among tourism-dependent states, Jamaica is projected to contract by 1.2% this year before growing 3.1% in 2027. Commodity-exporting economies are expected to outperform, with Guyana at 16.2% rising to 19.7%, Suriname at 3.9% increasing to 4.4% and Trinidad and Tobago at 0.8% rising to 3.0%.
• Chalk said the Western Hemisphere began 2026 on relatively stable footing, with growth near potential in many countries and inflation close to targets. However, the Middle East conflict has introduced fresh risks through energy price shocks, capital flow shifts and heightened investor uncertainty. "Countries are being affected by shifts in global financial conditions and capital flows, by swings in investor risk aversion, and by volatile commodity prices," he said. Still, oil-producing countries including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States and Venezuela may benefit from higher energy prices, which could strengthen trade balances and fiscal positions, though vulnerable populations even in those countries would still face rising food and fuel costs.
• Inflation pressures is projected be broad-based across the region, affecting fuel, transport, food and other essential goods. "Inflation will be higher for all," Chalk said, adding that the situation will increase hardship for lower-income households. He described the current environment as a renewed and unpredictable challenge for a region still recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Chalk stressed the importance of strong macroeconomic frameworks, saying countries with credible fiscal policies, low debt and anchored inflation expectations are better positioned to manage shocks. He encouraged governments with fiscal space to use it carefully, while advising energy exporters with limited reserves or high debt to save windfall gains.
• It was also noted that central banks across the region will once again be required to prioritise price stability, noting that some institutions will face greater difficulty due to weaker monetary frameworks. He also urged governments to resist political pressure to delay necessary adjustments to food and fuel prices, and to protect social safety nets where possible.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The return of Venezuelan crude to international markets could support efforts to restart refinery operations in Trinidad and Tobago, the Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago said in a statement on April 20, pointing to renewed shipments into the United States as a key signal.
• The Chamber highlighted a recent cargo delivery reported by the BBC, noting the arrival of the tanker Minerva Gloria near Chevron Pascagoula refinery, carrying 400,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude.
• "The shipment points to Venezuelan oil returning to major U.S. refining systems… For Trinidad and Tobago, the significance of this development is that it is a potential option to support the country's refining ambitions," the Chamber said.
• On April 1, Reuters reported that Venezuela's monthly oil exports surpassed one million barrels per day in March 2026, the highest level since September 2025.
• The Energy Chamber said production numbers revive the prospect of Venezuelan crude as a potential refinery feedstock, noting that while production figures "do not point to a full sector recovery," they indicate parts of Venezuela's oil industry are active enough again to influence refiners, traders, and neighbouring markets.
• "That matters as Trinidad considers restarting the Guaracara refinery, which will depend on a mix of domestic and imported crude, with Venezuelan barrels among the options that can potentially be considered," the Chamber added.
• According to the Energy Chamber, Trinidad and Tobago once relied heavily on Venezuelan crude to supply its refinery operations, with imports in 2000 reaching more than 18 million barrels. These volumes helped sustain operations at the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery, which depended on foreign crude as domestic production declined.
• However, that supply relationship weakened over time and eventually came to a halt in 2009, forcing Trinidad to source crude from other regions. Therefore, a renewed or revitalised Venezuelan oil sector could once again become a potential supplier for Trinidad and Tobago if refinery operations are restarted.

(Source: OIL Now)

• This week brings with it the April 22, 2026, deadline marking the end of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The intermittent closures of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran and U.S. blockades on Iranian ports reflect highly volatile, on-again/off-again negotiations for a potential peace deal.
• One possible outcome is that no deal is reached by midweek, but the ceasefire is extended, allowing negotiations to continue. The U.S. would maintain its blockade, reinforcing its military presence in the region, and sustaining sanctions pressure, while potentially facilitating the reopening of Hormuz to alleviate further spikes in global energy prices.
• A more adverse scenario is a full resumption of the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict, involving continued closure of key shipping routes such as Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, attacks on regional energy infrastructure, and broader military escalation, which would significantly disrupt global oil and gas supply chains. In such a scenario, oil prices could rise to around $200 per barrel, as prolonged disruption to Hormuz would require prices to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand, with some countries, particularly in Asia, already facing physical shortages.
• Sustained high oil prices would have severe economic and political implications, including sharply higher gasoline prices, reduced consumer spending, and increased recession risks, particularly in the U.S., where energy price spikes could weigh on economic stability and electoral dynamics.
• Despite these risks, both U.S. and E.U. sources suggest a deal remains the most likely outcome, with progress reported on key nuclear issues, although differences remain on timelines, enforcement, and missile capabilities.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)