• Government revenues in the Bahamas totalled in the first half of FY2025/2026 reached $1.5Bn, up to $66.6Mn compared with the same period last year, as the central government deficit narrowed to $342.4Mn, or 2.1% of GDP, from $367.7Mn, or 2.3% of GDP, in FY2024/2025.
• The Mid-Year Budget Review was delivered in the House of Assembly, where Minister of State in the Office of the Prime Minister Leon Lundy provided an update on revenue and expenditure trends, macroeconomic performance, and fiscal risks. Tax receipts increased by $54.4Mn, or 4.2%, to $1.3Bn, representing 39.1% of the full-year budget target. Expenditure totaled $1.9Bn, up $41.3Mn, or 2.3%, over the same period last year, driven mainly by employee compensation and interest in public debt.
• Minister Lundy noted that data indicate that the central Government recorded a deficit of $342.4Mn, equivalent to 2.1% of GDP, during the first six months of the fiscal year. This represents an improvement compared to the deficit of $367.7Mn, or 2.3% of GDP, recorded in the same period last year.”
• Total expenditure totaled $1.9Bn, an increase of $41.3Mn, or 2.3 %, compared to the same period last year. Recurrent expenditure rose by $42.2Mn to $1.7Bn, driven largely by compensation of employees and interest payments on public debt. Capital expenditure declined slightly by $0.9Mn to $191.7Mn, mainly reflecting reduced payments to private sector partners.
• The Direct Charge on the Government increased by $633.9Mn to $12.4Bn, or 75.1 % of GDP, reflecting borrowing to support fiscal operations and debt management. Key fiscal and macroeconomic risks identified include climate-related events, state-owned enterprise performance, pension liabilities, healthcare pressures, and cybersecurity threats.

(Source: Eyewitness News)

• The Government confirmed that the Panamanian State could receive up to $100 million over an 18-month period as a result of the operation of the Balboa and Cristóbal ports, while the announced public bidding process is underway.  This was reported by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Felipe Chapman pictured below, who explained that the projections are based on estimates built together with port operators and shipping companies. 
• “Based on the projections we have made, taking into account feedback from the port operators and shipping companies themselves, everything indicates that within a period of up to 18 months, because let’s remember that it is temporary, there will be a public tender,” he said.  The minister explained that, in order of magnitude, the Republic of Panama could be receiving up to 100 million balb, a figure that, he indicated, far exceeds what was generated by the contract that was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of Justice.
• The estimates he clarified are linked to the volume of operations and the behaviour of international trade, factors that directly affect the country’s port activity.  The official noted that this scheme is temporary, for approximately 18-months, and that the public tender that has already been announced must be finalised subsequently. 
• For his part, Minister Chapman reiterated that Panama is prepared to assume the expenses involved in any eventual international arbitration.  He noted that the country has already faced similar situations, as happened at the time with the Panama Canal Authority in matters of arbitration, and assured that the Government is ready for any scenario that may arise, which it considers from a positive perspective.

(Source: NewsRoom Panama)

• Oil prices fell by about 2% early on Thursday, February 26, 2026, as the crucial U.S.-Iran talks began in Geneva in what analysts see as one last attempt to reach a nuclear deal through diplomacy.
• Prices were under pressure after the latest weekly data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday, February 26, 2026, that crude oil inventories in the United States surged by 16 million barrels during the week ending February 20, 2026. Yet, recent weeks have been distorted by weather-related production freeze-offs and the subsequent snap-back in output, which can swing inventories sharply from one report to the next.
• The U.S. continues to amass forces in the Middle Eastern region, with the U.S. military saying it is prepared to execute orders given by U.S. President Donald Trump. Commenting on the oil market implications, ING commodities strategists, Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, said early on Thursday, February 26, 2026, that “A constructive resolution would likely prompt the market to gradually unwind as much as a $10 per barrel risk premium, which we believe is currently priced in.”
• The upside risk to oil remains should talks break down, “but the market may hold off on a full reaction until the scale of potential US action against Iran becomes clearer,” the strategists noted. “If we are to see de-escalation between the US and Iran, it should allow weaker fundamentals to feed through to a lower flat price, particularly if the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) resumes supply increases from April 2026, which we believe they will agree to this weekend.”

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Canada is negotiating with the U.S. to remove tariffs on some critical sectors, and a deal could be wrapped into bilateral pacts alongside a review of the United States-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA), Dominic LeBlanc, a Canadian senior minister, said on Thursday, February 26, 2026.
• LeBlanc, who is responsible for Canada-United States trade, noted that despite some U.S. officials casting doubt on the USMCA, private conversations between the three governments about the pact were not discouraging.
• Canada is trying to persuade the U.S. to reduce or remove painful tariffs on key sectors such as steel, aluminum and automobiles that President Donald Trump's administration imposed last year. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said last year that the talks on sectoral tariffs were likely to be incorporated into the broader USMCA review. Leblanc plans to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer next week.
• "We are still ready and anxious to do that work," LeBlanc told a business audience in Toronto, referring to removing sectoral tariffs. "Those will be bilateral arrangements," LeBlanc said, adjacent to a trilateral trade agreement.
• Mexico already started formal negotiations with the United States on renewal of the USMCA. LeBlanc said that he is not pessimistic about renewing the trilateral framework, given it is in the economic interests of the three signatories to keep it going. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade deal is up for review and needs to be completed by July 1, 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica's network of strong bilateral relations with foreign governments has been instrumental in generating a comprehensive disaster response to accelerate the nation's recovery from Hurricane Melissa, according to Fitch, BMI. Prime Minister Andrew Holness has acknowledged broad support from CARICOM member states and regional institutions for their 'immediate engagement', alongside numerous bilateral allies such as the US, Canada, Venezuela, the EU and Mainland China. Therefore, while the country faces a lengthy post-Melissa recovery trajectory, its extensive network of bilateral partnerships and active engagement with multilateral institutions will provide crucial support during the country's recovery.
• In the years ahead, Jamaica will maintain its focus on maintaining its strong bilateral partnership with the US, reflecting the significant economic interdependence between the two nations across tourism, remittances and trade sectors. During a January 2026 call, PM Holness and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed their commitment to sustained bilateral cooperation, addressing several key areas, including continued hurricane recovery assistance and US support for these efforts. Achievements in domestic crime reduction, the country's pivotal contribution to anti-gang operations in Haiti and the recent improvement of the US travel advisory from Level 3 to Level 2 (lower is better) represent a significant boost for the storm-affected tourism industry.
• Despite recent US pressure to discontinue the country’s long-standing medical cooperation program with Cuba - an arrangement the government is now reassessing amid objections from the Donald Trump administration - strong ties with Washington remain a cornerstone priority for the Holness administration.
• Still, with Prime Minister Holness having served as chair of CARICOM in 2025, Jamaica will continue to prioritise strong relationships and cooperation with its Caribbean neighbours. Furthermore, the country has joined numerous regional cooperation agreements, including the Alliance for Security, Justice and Development with 18 other Latin American markets promoted by the Inter-American Development Bank to increase regional cooperation against transnational crime.
• Additionally, Jamaica signed an agreement with Barbados, Belize, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica in July 2025 to allow open movement of all Caribbean nationals by October 1, 2025, under the CARICOM Single Market and Economy, a development strategy to promote increased regional economic cooperation and integration. The country also enjoys trade benefits from numerous regional CARICOM bilateral trade agreements, including with Venezuela, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and Cuba.
• Mainland China will also remain an important relationship for Jamaica. Jamaica joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2019 and has received inbound investment from China for infrastructure projects, including the Southern Coastal Highway Improvement Project. Additionally, despite US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressing concern about China’s alleged ‘predatory practices’ during a joint press conference with PM Holness in Kingston in March 2025, Jamaica continues to court Chinese investment.
• A memorandum of understanding was signed in August 2025 with a Chinese firm to conduct feasibility studies to expand Jamaica’s North-South Highway. While Jamaica’s relationship with China was not featured heavily in the 2025 election season, historic underinvestment in infrastructure and the negative consequences for growth are politically salient issues in Jamaica. We anticipate that Jamaica’s government will continue to accept investment opportunities from China, despite the muted objections and handwringing from the US.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Governor of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), Richard Byles, indicated that the central bank now expects full economic recovery from Hurricane Melissa within two to three years, representing an improvement from the earlier projection of three to four years. Governor Byles explained that this more favourable outlook reflects expectations for a quicker rebound in agricultural output, alongside faster restoration of electricity and telecommunications services.
• Speaking at the BOJ’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Report press conference on February 24, he noted that the central bank anticipates real GDP contraction of between 1% and 3% in FY2025/26, which is narrower than the Bank’s previous estimate. As reconstruction efforts advance and sectoral activity normalises, he added that real GDP growth is projected to recover to between 1% and 3% in FY2026/27.
• On the external front, Byles stated that Jamaica’s current account balance is expected to deteriorate in the medium term, primarily due to hurricane-related disruptions to tourism and increased imports tied to infrastructure rebuilding and relief activities. However, stronger remittance inflows and insurance payouts are likely to partially offset this pressure. In this context, the BOJ projects the current account balance to range from a deficit of 0.5% of GDP to a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY2025/26, compared with a surplus of 3% of GDP in FY2024/25.
• That said, Jamaica’s external buffers remain robust. The Governor reported that gross international reserves reached a historic high of US$6.8bn as at February 19, 2026, equivalent to approximately 155.8% of the adequacy benchmark, reinforcing the country’s resilience to external shocks.
• Turning to financial stability, Governor Byles stated that the domestic financial system has demonstrated broad resilience following Hurricane Melissa, with deposit-taking institutions maintaining capital adequacy ratios above regulatory benchmarks. While asset quality showed some softening, the non-performing loan ratio increased modestly to 2.8% at end-2025 from 2.5% at end-2024, remaining well below the prudential threshold of 10%.
• Private-sector credit growth remained stable, expanding by 8% in 2025, compared with 7.3% in 2024, suggesting continued lending support for economic recovery despite the post-hurricane environment.

(Source: JIS)

• Liquidity conditions in the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) banking sector, especially within the automatic clearing house, have tightened as excess liquidity has declined in recent months. As at November 2025, commercial banks' excess liquidity fell to $3.5Bn from $6.6Bn in May, pushing up borrowing costs and slowing credit growth.
• The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) attributes this decline to factors like open market operations and foreign exchange sales, which removed over $4.5 billion from the system, though it is augmented by government spending of the income from the energy sector locally.
• The banking sector is regulated by the CBTT, which oversees monetary policy, financial stability, and commercial banks. Regulations include capital requirements, risk management guidelines, and consumer protection laws. The Central Bank also monitors liquidity and solvency to safeguard depositors' interests.
• Liquidity issues in Trinidad and Tobago's banking sector are having a significant impact on the economy. With excess liquidity decreasing, borrowing costs are rising, and credit growth is slowing down. This is affecting various sectors, including motor vehicle loans and bridging finance.
• It has resulted in a multi-front challenge for the real economy, primarily by driving up interest rates that price out businesses, particularly those in non-energy sectors, from essential investment opportunities. This tightening is already manifesting as visible stagnation in consumer and commercial credit, with a marked slowdown in motor vehicle loans and bridging finance.
• Compounding these issues are inflationary pressures from global price hikes and domestic wage adjustments that squeeze household disposable income. While these wage increases aim to provide relief, the IMF has cautioned that without strict fiscal discipline, they risk fueling further economic uncertainty and potentially hindering long-term growth

(Sources: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian)

• The Barbados Government today laid the 2026-2027 Estimates of Expenditure and Revenue in Parliament, officially kicking off the budgetary cycle. The submission included a projected forecast for the current 2025-2026 financial year, providing a comparative look at the nation's fiscal performance. These documents serve as the foundation for the upcoming Parliamentary debate on the Appropriation Bill, 2026, which is scheduled to begin on March 2, 2026.
• The revised deficit of $83.8Mn, on the IFI basis, represents -0.5% of GDP at market prices, estimated at $16.24Bn. The primary surplus for the financial year 2025-2026 is estimated to be $658.4Mn or 4.1% of GDP on a cash basis.
• On the accrual basis, current revenue for the next fiscal year is projected at $5.28Bn.  On the cash basis, current revenue is projected at $5.18Bn, an increase of $1.32Bn or 34.3% over the revised 2025-2026 level of $3.86Bn.
• It is estimated that the government’s total expenditure for the financial year 2026-2027, on the accrual basis, will be $6.14Bn (inclusive of amortisation).  Of the amount approved for the 2026-2027 financial year, $5.15Bn represents current expenditure and $973.80Mn represents capital expenditure and amortisation. When converted to the cash basis, total expenditure is expected to be $5.08Bn, exclusive of amortisation, with current expenditure of $4.19Mn and capital expenditure of $889.8Mn. Current expenditure is above the revised 2025-2026 figure of $3.42n by $766.7Mn.
• Expenditure on goods and services is expected to increase by $376.2Mn over the revised figure for 2025-2026 of $590.5Mn to $966.7Mn. Current transfers are projected to increase by $368.4Mn or 32% to $1.52Mn.
• The repayment of principal and interest on the government’s debt is expected to account for $1.50Bn. The primary balance is projected to be a surplus of $817.5 million, representing 4.8% of GDP (estimated at $17.06Bn) on the cash basis.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Japan must keep raising interest rates and tighten fiscal policy as the economy is already in "great shape," former central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda said, warning that Premier Sanae Takaichi's big spending plan could stoke an inflationary upswing.
• With the economy enjoying solid growth and steady wage gains, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) can probably raise interest rates about twice a year in 2026 and 2027, said Kuroda. "When Abenomics was deployed, Japan was suffering from deflation and a strong yen. Now, Japan is experiencing inflation and a weak yen. Japan needs to move toward tighter fiscal and monetary policy," he added.
• According to Kuroda, "The BoJ must gradually raise interest rates towards levels deemed neutral to the economy. Fiscal policy must be tightened, too," The remarks highlight how Japan’s evolving economic landscape has driven a striking divergence in policy thinking between Kuroda, Abenomics’ most ardent architect, and its current torchbearer, Takaichi.
• With inflation above its 2% target for years and a tight job market pushing up wages, the BoJ exited Kuroda's stimulus in 2024 and raised rates several times, including in December. Fiscal policy, by contrast, is likely to stay expansionary. A fan of Abenomics, Takaichi has ramped up spending and pledged to suspend by two years an 8% sales tax on food to cushion the blow to households from rising living costs.
• Kuroda warned that such expansionary fiscal policy could backfire by fuelling inflationary pressure and pushing up bond yields. "It makes sense for the government to support innovation to boost long term potential growth. But spending money to cushion the blow from rising living costs would be counterproductive as doing so would fuel inflation," he said.
• The BoJ may see scope to raise its key policy rate, currently at 0.75%, to around 1.5-1.75% in coming years if the economy can sustain its momentum.

(Source: Reuters)

• Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Wednesday, February 25, 2026, that the back-and-forth on President Trump's tariffs adds to uncertainty for businesses and the economy.
• "Businesses still feel that heightened uncertainty, and that has something to do with why you see such a low hiring rate and why people aren't leaning into investments the way that they might," said Barkin. "Hard to know where that's going from here, but I'm not seeing a big pickup on the job growth side."
• Aside from tariffs, Barkin is "cautiously optimistic" that inflation will continue to come down this year. Meanwhile, on the job front, he noted that he has been reassured by the past few jobs reports. "I've been reassured by the labour market, also by the demand side, which has stayed relatively healthy, and I think that's the question is whether you need to put more in there on the rate side to help bolster demand," he said.
• The question is whether the Fed needs to cut rates further to boost the demand side amid low hiring. The Fed cut interest rates three times at the end of last year to bolster the job market.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)