• Mexico's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.00% on Thursday, December 19, 2024, and signaled larger rate cuts could be considered in future meetings given progress on inflation in Latin America's second-largest economy.
• The unanimous decision by the Bank of Mexico's five-member governing board is the fifth rate cut this year since it started lowering borrowing costs from a record high of 11.25% in March.
• "In view of the progress on disinflation, larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings, albeit maintaining a restrictive stance," Banxico, as the bank is known, said in a post-meeting statement.
• Mexico's closely watched core consumer price index, seen as a more reliable measure of price trends as it excludes volatile energy and food prices, fell to 3.58% in the 12 months through November, from 3.80% in October.
• Banxico targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. While both headline and core inflation are still forecast to follow a downward trend, the board raised its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
• The board now sees headline inflation reaching the 3% target in the third quarter of 2026, later than the board's previous guidance of the fourth quarter of 2025.
• After the board's unanimous cut in mid-November, Mexican markets were rattled by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threat of a 25% across-the-board tariff on imports from Mexico. Thursday's statement referenced the Mexican peso's volatility amid "the possibility of measures that could weaken integration with our main trading partner."

(Source: Reuters)

•  Inflation in Trinidad and Tobago has risen slightly in November, according to the Central Statistical Office (CSO). The rate of inflation for November 2024, which measures the percentage change in the All-Items Index for the month of November 2024 over November 2023, amounted to 0.5%.
• This represents an increase from the previous period (October 2024/October 2023) of 0.2%. The inflation rate for the comparative period (November 2023/November 2022) was 1.1%, according to the CSO.
• The All-Items Index calculated from the prices collected for the month of November 2024 was 124.6 points, representing an increase of 0.2 points of 0.2% above the All-Items Index for October 2024, it said.
• The Index for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages increased from 150.8 in October 2024 to 151.6 in November 2024, reflecting an increase of 0.5%. Contributing significantly to this increase was the general upward movement in the prices of tomatoes, fresh carite, Irish potatoes, other chilled or frozen chicken, hot peppers, fresh king fish, pumpkin, curry, celery and garlic.
• However, the full impact of these price increases was offset by the general decreases in the prices of cucumber, carrots, eddoes, table margarine, fresh steak, ripe bananas, soya bean oil, oranges, dasheen and pimento, the CSO noted.
• A further review of the data for November 2024 compared with October 2024 reflected increases in the sub-indices for Clothing and Footwear of 0.2% and Health of 0.1%. This period also showed a decrease in the sub-index for Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco of 0.2%. All other sections remained unchanged, the CSO release added.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• The top business risk of the Trump presidency for heavy-duty equipment maker Komatsu is not the tariffs he has threatened, but Canada's potential retaliatory duties on American-made mining machines, the head of the Japanese company said.
• The view of a global manufacturer flags the possible knock-on impact of Trump's pledge for tariffs on imports from Canada, China and Mexico when he takes office, especially if the targets decide to retaliate with trade barriers on their own.
• The world's second-largest construction machinery company after Caterpillar, earns more than a quarter of its sales from North America and employs about 8,000 staff in the United States.
• The risk of retaliatory tariffs by Canada, the largest export destination for the mining equipment Komatsu makes in the United States, is "my biggest concern" when Trump's second term begins next month, Chief Executive Hiroyuki Ogawa told Reuters.
• "We are an exporter in America," Ogawa said, adding that Komatsu's U.S. exports have surpassed imports by about $1 billion a year since its 2017 acquisition of Milwaukee-based mining machinery maker Joy Global. "We're basing our business on free trade," Ogawa said. "A tariff war could land a one-two punch on us.
• The impact of the threatened tariffs on U.S.-bound components such as sheet metal from China is "not very big" and could be mitigated if necessary, by shifting supply sources elsewhere, such as from Southeast Asia, within two to three months, he added.

(Source: Reuters)

• China is widely expected to leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Friday, a Reuters poll showed, as falling yields, shrinking net interest margins, and a weakening yuan create limits for immediate monetary easing.
• Yield differentials between China and the U.S. hit their widest in 22 years this week, dragging the yuan to its weakest in over a year, despite a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
• While rapid declines in Chinese yields have prompted the central bank to warn against rate risks, a pledge by the Politburo to switch to an "appropriately loose" monetary policy stance next year has heightened market expectations for more easing in coming months.
• The loan prime rate (LPR), normally charged to banks' best clients, is calculated each month after 20 designated commercial banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China (PBOC).
• In a Reuters survey of 27 market watchers conducted this week, all respondents expected both the one-year and five-year LPRs to remain steady. "The central bank has just warned (against interest rate risk), it seems a bit inappropriate to cut interest rates right after that," said a trader at a Chinese bank.
• China's central bank urged financial institutions to guard against interest rate risks when trading in bonds, signalling discomfort over a recent buying frenzy that has helped drive yields sharply lower.

(Source: Reuters)

• Simply Secure Limited, an international business company which offers services that are similar to those provided by tTech, launched a takeover bid for the remaining 30.92 percent of tTech Limited. The offer is valued at $79.10Mn (US$459,912.27) based on the $2.20 takeover price offered to the remaining shareholders, a premium of 10.0% over the last trading price on December 18, 2024.
• Simply Secure had previously acquired 73,229,223 ordinary shares of tTech on July 11 and November 15 at $2.20 from tTech directors Edward “Teddy” Alexander, Enqueue Inc, a St Lucian IBC holding company owned by Norman Abraham Chen, and Auctus Holdings Inc, a St Lucian IBC holding company owned by Gordon Christopher Reckord for a total $160.37Mn( roughly US$1.02Mn).
• The initial purchase brought Simply Secure’s total ownership to 69.08 percent and triggered the mandatory takeover bid required under the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) rules and Jamaican Securities Act.
• However, it is likely that after the takeover bid is completed tTech could be in breach of the JSE rules as it relates to ownership limits. The JSE rules require that at least 100 shareholders own 20 percent of the company and that no shareholder own more than 80 percent of a listed company.
• In such a scenario, the JSE can delist the company. If this materializes, it is likely that tTech would be liable to pay Tax Administration Jamaica for the tax remission tTech would have enjoyed so far by being listed on the Junior Market. Between 2016 – 2023, tTech enjoyed a total of $40.26 million in tax remissions by being listed on the Junior Market.

(Sources: JSE & tTech Limited)

• High Commissioner of India, His Excellency Mayank Joshi, says Jamaica must prepare to explore opportunities and identify ways to benefit from India’s increased interest in the Latin American Region.
• He noted that trade between India and Latin America has increased to some $50Bn and the India Government envisions that this will reach $100Bn by 2028. Jamaica’s location can provide Indian businesses with access to markets in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• “For a start, the focus can be capacity building, education, health care, digital technology, hospitality management and renewable energy. Let us work together and see how we can make the most benefit out of this opportunity,” he said. High Commissioner Joshi said the strong relationship between Jamaica and India serves as a solid foundation for mutually beneficial trade, investment and economic partnerships.
• Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, who spoke at the event, said the recent visit to India by Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, has opened doors for future collaboration in vital sectors, such as trade, technology, education and tourism.

(Source: JIS)

• Economies in Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, driven by domestic consumption but tempered by a risk of worsening global geopolitical and trade tensions, the United Nations said on Wednesday, December 18, 2024.
• The UN's Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) raised its projection for growth in the region from 2.3% in August but said its estimate is for the region to maintain a "low growth trajectory."
• Private consumption will be the main driver for growth in the region, similar to 2024, but "with a more moderate expansion." ECLAC also revised its regional growth forecast for this year to 2.2%, up from 1.8% in August. Employment is expected to continue to grow slightly in 2025, despite a weak labour force participation rate compared to pre-pandemic levels and persistent gender inequality.
• That said, the main risks to the region's economies include intensifying geopolitical and trade tensions that could affect the price of raw materials, as well as complicate shipping routes and transport logistics.
• That said, countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are on a downward trend in inflation, which, combined with monetary easing in the United States, has allowed rate-setters to reduce interest rates in a "heterogeneous and cautious" manner, and should keep private demand robust.
• That said, the ECLAC stressed that the outlook for investment in the coming years remains discouraging amid weak public spending. "Gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to contract, which calls into question its role in sustaining medium- and long-term growth in the region's economies," the report said.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Mirex) and the Dominican Association of Exporters (Adoexpo) have signed an agreement to promote and enhance the country’s exports by leveraging its advantages.
• The agreement outlines an action plan aimed at improving communication, enhancing diplomatic support for Dominican exports, exploring market opportunities, conducting research, and establishing open communication channels between both organizations.
• It also highlights the Dominican Republic’s capacity to strengthen international ties, particularly through integration and cooperation efforts in line with the National Development Strategy.
• The agreement establishes a joint working group, led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and coordinated by the Vice-Ministry for Economic Affairs and International Cooperation. Foreign Minister Álvarez emphasized the government’s commitment to fostering investment and trade, enhancing international relations, and supporting the growth of the national productive sector.
• He noted that the country’s political stability, legal security, and economic resilience have been crucial in consolidating the Dominican Republic’s presence in global markets, contributing to record export figures of over $12Bn in 2023. Furthermore, since the start of the year (January to November 2024), Dominican exports reached $11.9Bn, supported by key exports in gold, medical instruments, and cigars.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bps on Wednesday to range between 25%-4.50%. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation, remarks that showed policymakers are starting to reckon with the prospects for sweeping economic changes under a Trump administration.
• Powell's explicit - and repeated - references to the need for caution from here on jolted Wall Street, sending stocks sharply lower, bond yields higher and leading investors to dial back estimates of how far borrowing costs are likely to fall over the coming year.
• "I think we're in a good place, but I think from here it's a new phase and we're going to be cautious about further cuts," Powell said at a press conference after the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of a two-day meeting.
• While he said the Fed remained confident price pressures would continue to ease, he also acknowledged central bank staff and policymakers were beginning to at least preliminarily think through how President-elect Donald Trump's promises of higher tariffs, tax cuts and tougher immigration policy will change the outlook.
• In developing new projections, "some people did take a very preliminary step and start to incorporate highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies into their forecasts at this meeting," Powell said of an outlook in which U.S. central bankers anticipated a higher inflation outlook and fewer rate cuts next year.
• S. central bankers now project they will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025. That is half a percentage point less in policy easing next year than officials anticipated as of September, with Fed projections of inflation for the first year of the new Trump administration jumping from 2.1% in their prior projections to 2.5% in the current ones - well above the central bank's 2% target.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 4.75% on Thursday, despite signs of a slowing economy, as persistent inflation pressures limit it to a "gradual" approach towards cutting borrowing costs. All 71 economists polled by Reuters said rates would stay unchanged for now. Most expect a quarter-point cut only on Feb. 6 after its next meeting, followed by three more cuts by the end of 2025.
• However, financial markets are much less certain about the extent of rate cuts next year, following data on Tuesday that showed an unexpected acceleration of wage growth. Investors late on Wednesday priced in just a 50% chance of a rate cut in February and only two cuts in 2025 as a whole.
• By contrast, the European Central Bank has cut rates by one percentage point in 2024 and is expected by markets to lower them by another percentage point in 2025 as the euro zone economy is hit by political turmoil and the risk of a U.S. trade war.
• Importantly, Governor Andrew Bailey this month reaffirmed the BoE's message that "a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate". The BoE's November forecasts - which showed inflation staying just above its 2% target until 2027 - were based on market expectations of four rate cuts next year.

(Source: Reuters)