• The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to stable labour market conditions, though sluggish hiring is making it harder for many laid-off workers to land new opportunities.
• The lack of material labour market deterioration likely gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) cover to keep interest rates unchanged next week amid signs that President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports were starting to lift inflation. That was underscored by a survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing that businesses asked for higher prices for goods and services in July.
• Trump is pressuring the U.S. central bank to resume its interest rate cuts. However, economists expect the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range after the end of a two-day policy meeting next Wednesday. The Fed had cut rates three times in 2024, with the last move coming in December.
• "Trump 2.0 economic policies have not brought the economy to its knees yet, although whether this continues to be the case going forward remains an open question," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The weekly jobless claims give Fed officials no cover whatsoever if they are seriously thinking of cutting interest rates at next week's meeting."
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended July 19, 2025, the lowest level since April, the Labour Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 226,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have declined for six straight weeks and have pulled further away from an eight-month high touched in June. Unadjusted claims decreased by 45,319 to 215,792 last week.
• Though there have been some layoffs, employers have been mostly reluctant to fire workers, opting instead to scale back on hiring while awaiting more clarity on the Trump administration's protectionist trade policy. Uncertainty over where tariff levels will ultimately settle continued to weigh on business sentiment in July, according to a survey from S&P Global, even as activity picked up. The survey's measures of prices paid by businesses for inputs, as well as what they charged for goods and services, rose this month.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain and India signed a free trade agreement on Thursday, July 24, 2025, during a visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The agreement represents a deal to cut tariffs on goods from textiles to whisky and cars, and allow more market access for businesses.
• Talks on the trade pact were concluded in May after three years of stop-start negotiations, with both sides hastening efforts to clinch a deal in the shadow of tariff turmoil unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
• The agreement between the world's fifth and sixth largest economies aims to increase bilateral trade by a further £25.5Bn (US$34Bn) by 2040. This marks Britain's most significant trade agreement since its departure from the European Union (EU) in 2020. However, its overall impact is likely to be modest compared to the far-reaching effects of severing economic ties with its closest trading partner. Additionally, this agreement represents India's most substantial strategic partnership with an advanced economy, potentially serving as a model for future comprehensive deals with the EU and other global regions.
• Both sides hailed the trade agreement as a historic deal which will take effect following a ratification process, likely within a year, after which firms such as whisky distiller Diageo, and carmakers including BMW, Nissan, Aston Martin and Tata-owned Jaguar Land Rover could benefit from lower duties.
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer noted that there would be huge benefits for both countries, making trade cheaper, quicker and easier in a new global era for trade. Modi called the agreement "a blueprint for our shared prosperity," highlighting how Indian goods from textiles to jewellery and seafood would secure better market access.
• The countries also agreed on a partnership covering areas such as defence and climate, and aim to strengthen co-operation on tackling crime. The trade deal came about quickly after Britain's new Labour government restarted negotiations in February.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) has noted that it is aware of a report made on July 13, 2025, alleging the possible disclosure of personal data and trading information pertaining to an individual investor (Data Subject). The matter was brought to the JSE's attention through a media article and subsequent correspondence from the Data Subject.
• Upon receipt of this report, the JSE activated its internal incident response protocols and launched a comprehensive investigation. In accordance with Jamaica’s Data Protection Act of 2020, the relevant broker—being the designated Data Controller—was promptly notified, given that the JSE processes personal data on the broker’s behalf.
• Its Information Technology team, supported by cybersecurity experts, conducted a detailed review of all relevant systems, controls, and security logs. Based on the forensic analysis undertaken, there was no evidence of any compromise of the Jamaica Stock Exchange’s infrastructure or network, nor any unauthorised or suspicious access to the personal data in question.
• The JSE noted that it remains unwavering in its commitment to data protection and market integrity, as the confidentiality and security of personal data and trading information are fundamental to the trust and confidence placed in us by its stakeholders.

(Source: JSE)

• The Consumer Affairs Commission (CAC) will begin consultations this September on the draft Code of Conduct for microcredit institutions. The Code will govern the conduct of microcredit licensees in consumer-related matters, addressing issues such as predatory lending and unethical practices within the sector.
• It will also outline minimum customer service standards to ensure transparency, fairness, and accountability across the industry. Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the CAC, Dolsie Allen, highlighted that the Code of Conduct will foster a transparent, ethical, and responsible microcredit sector – one that protects borrowers and strengthens the industry as a whole.
• She noted that the CAC has been designated under the Microcredit Act as the agency responsible for investigating and resolving complaints brought by consumers against microcredit institutions.
• Mrs. Allen emphasised that heightened regulation is especially important, given the exponential growth of the microcredit sector and the emergence of deceptive lending practices.
• The microcredit sector is regulated by the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), which serves as the administrator of the Microcredit Act and is responsible for licensing and supervising microcredit institutions.

(Source: JIS)

• President Luis Abinader underscored the vital role of the tobacco industry in the Dominican Republic’s economy during his weekly press conference, La Semanal con la Prensa. He noted that Dominican tobacco is more than an agricultural product—it symbolises national pride, job creation, and economic growth, with annual sales surpassing US$1.34Bn and representing 10% of the country’s total exports.
• Tobacco now ranks as the nation’s third-largest export, behind only gold and medical supplies. Since 2019, exports have increased by over US$400Mn, reflecting the sector’s remarkable expansion.
• Abinader also emphasised the industry’s contribution to employment, with more than 122,000 direct jobs and thousands more indirectly, including 40,000 roles in Tamboril alone—20% of the total sector workforce—where the unemployment rate is currently 0%.
• Tobacco production has also seen significant growth. The country currently has 29 designated tobacco-growing regions across 15 provinces, and the 2024–2025 harvest is expected to yield 330,000 quintals of tobacco. Abinader concluded by framing the sector as a cornerstone of the country’s economic and cultural identity.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• The Barbados Central Bank (CBB) has announced plans to introduce a new payment system that it says will create a more inclusive financial ecosystem, eliminating barriers between banks, credit unions, and other financial institutions to allow seamless real-time transfers.
• Central Bank Governor, Dr. Kevin Greenidge, said that the Instant Payments System (IPS) will be launched in March next year and promises faster, cheaper and more secure transactions. “This is perhaps one of the most revolutionising things that we've done since establishing the Central Bank,” Greenidge said during a panel discussion at the Bank's 45th Annual Review Seminar.
• Under the existing system, transferring money between different banks or credit unions can take hours or even days, with some institutions charging fees for instant transfers. The CBB said that the IPS will change that by allowing real-time transactions across all participating financial service providers, including commercial banks, credit unions, and approved fintech companies.
• As a result, customers will experience no more waiting for payments to clear transfers between accounts at different institutions, lower transaction costs and more payment options, with customers being able to send and receive money directly from mobile devices, even without cash or cards. Deputy Governor Michelle Doyle, who is leading the IPS project, said customers may now do their shopping without having a credit card or cash, “but if you have your phone, you can make a payment from your mobile device.”

(Source: CariCRIS)

• The Barbados Central Bank (CBB) has announced plans to introduce a new payment system that it says will create a more inclusive financial ecosystem, eliminating barriers between banks, credit unions, and other financial institutions to allow seamless real-time transfers.
• Central Bank Governor, Dr. Kevin Greenidge, said that the Instant Payments System (IPS) will be launched in March next year and promises faster, cheaper and more secure transactions. “This is perhaps one of the most revolutionising things that we've done since establishing the Central Bank,” Greenidge said during a panel discussion at the Bank's 45th Annual Review Seminar.
• Under the existing system, transferring money between different banks or credit unions can take hours or even days, with some institutions charging fees for instant transfers. The CBB said that the IPS will change that by allowing real-time transactions across all participating financial service providers, including commercial banks, credit unions, and approved fintech companies.
• As a result, customers will experience no more waiting for payments to clear transfers between accounts at different institutions, lower transaction costs and more payment options, with customers being able to send and receive money directly from mobile devices, even without cash or cards. Deputy Governor Michelle Doyle, who is leading the IPS project, said customers may now do their shopping without having a credit card or cash, “but if you have your phone, you can make a payment from your mobile device.”

(Source: CariCRIS)

• The Trump administration released a new artificial intelligence blueprint on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, that aims to loosen environmental rules and vastly expand AI exports to allies, in a bid to maintain the American edge over China in the critical technology.
• President Donald Trump will mark the plan's release with a speech outlining the importance of winning an AI race that is increasingly seen as a defining feature of 21st-century geopolitics, with both China and the United States investing heavily in the industry to secure economic and military superiority.
• The plan, which includes some 90 recommendations, calls for the export of U.S. AI software and hardware abroad as well as a crackdown on state laws deemed too restrictive to let it flourish, a marked departure from predecessor Joe Biden's "high fence" approach that limited global access to coveted AI chips.
• "We're establishing a program led by the departments of Commerce and State to partner with industry to deliver secure full-stack AI export packages, including hardware models, software applications and standards to America's friends and allies around the world," said Michael Kratsios, head of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. An expansion in exports of a full suite of AI products could benefit AI chip juggernauts Nvidia and AMD as well as AI model giants Alphabet's Google, Microsoft, OpenAI and Facebook parent Meta.
• Biden feared U.S. adversaries like China could harness AI chips produced by companies like Nvidia and AMD to supercharge its military and harm allies. The former president, who left office in January, imposed a raft of restrictions on U.S. exports of AI chips to China and other countries that it feared could divert the semiconductors to America's top global rival.
• Trump rescinded Biden's executive order aimed at promoting competition, protecting consumers and ensuring AI was not used for misinformation. He also rescinded Biden's so-called AI diffusion rule, which capped the amount of American AI computing capacity some countries were allowed to obtain via U.S. AI chip imports.

(Source: Reuters)

• United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump announced on July 22 that he has struck trade deals with Japan and the Philippines. Trump said the U.S. will apply 15% tariffs on goods imported from Japan, while the latter will invest US$550Bn in the U.S. and increase market access to American products such as cars and rice.
• Trump did not mention auto tariffs, but various news reports said the agreement covers a 15% tariff on Japanese autos, inclusive of the existing 2.5% rate. These are lower than the 25% “reciprocal” tariff stated in a July 7 letter that Trump sent to Japan. For the Philippines, Trump said that the U.S. will apply 19% tariffs on imports, slightly lower than the 20% rate in the letter Trump sent in early July.
• When the new tariff rates come into effect, the U.S. effective tariff rate on Japan will fall from around 18% currently to 16%, slightly above Fitch Solutions’ previous base case of 15%. The agency estimates that this lower rate alone will have a limited impact on growth. Nonetheless, the benchmark Nikkei stock index jumped by 3% in early-Asia trade on July 23, with shares of automakers surging.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. effective tariff rate on the Philippines will increase from around 12.0% to close to 18.0%, higher than the previous base case of 13.5%. But given the relatively modest exports exposure to the U.S., Fitch estimates that the Philippines would still be able to grow by more than 5.0% in 2025 even in the worst-case scenario, where there is a complete pass-through and high levels of elasticity.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• E-Learning Solution Company, One-on-One Educational Services Limited (ONE) reported a 51.3% increase in earnings to $36.55Mn for its third quarter ended May 2025 (Q3 2025).  This strong quarterly performance contributed to a nine-month turnaround in profitability, reaching $55.08Mn, driven by revenue growth and efficiency gains that resulted in lower costs.
• Quarterly revenues reached $100.54Mn, marking a 5.9% year-over-year increase, underpinned by the delivery of customised Edtech Solution. However, cost-of-Sales (+22.7%) outpaced the growth in revenues as the Company deployed hardware and services to support the expansion of One Academy. Although this led to a 2.7% reduction in gross margin, gross margins still rose by 2.4% to $80.39Mn. Moreover, the company expects the front-loaded investment to yield long-term operational efficiencies and revenue leverage.
• Administrative and selling expenses declined by 8.6% year-over-year, primarily due to improved internal processes, streamlined operations, and more strategic resource allocation.
• Building on this strong quarterly performance, which significantly contributed to a turnaround in profitability, the company plans to leverage its recent investments to further boost earnings. Its commitment to the Educational Management Information System (EMIS) and Learning Management System (LMS) aligns with its broader strategy to drive sustainable growth, and enhance operational efficiency.
• One’s stock price has decreased by 9.1% year-to-date, closing at $0.90 as of Tuesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.4x, which is higher than the Junior Market Other Sector’s average of 20.3x.

(Sources: JSE &NCBCM Research)