• Jamaica’s Energy and Transport Minister Daryl Vaz is warning Jamaicans to prepare for fuel price increases and possible movement-reduction measures as rising global oil prices place growing pressure on the Government of Jamaica.
• Vaz said the Government is now exploring options to encourage conservation, including a potential return to hybrid work-from-home arrangements similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic. No decision has yet been made, and the matter is expected to go before the Cabinet of Jamaica.
• The discussion comes as state-owned refinery Petrojam absorbed approximately J$1.3 billion in oil price hikes that were not passed on to consumers in the last four weeks. If the price pressures persist up to June 2026, it would cost the government J$11.8 billion to absorb the increases.
• Vaz characterised the situation as increasingly unsustainable, cautioning that Jamaicans should brace for further price increases. While Petrojam currently caps weekly fuel price adjustments at a maximum movement per litre to cushion consumers from sharp fluctuations, he indicated that such constraints may no longer be viable amid prevailing global conditions.
• Vaz noted that between March 12 and April 8, transport fuel prices increased by an average of $49.20 per litre. Of that amount, only $18 was passed on to consumers because of the cap, leaving Petrojam to absorb the remainder.
• He also suggested that policy changes aimed at reducing fuel consumption may be necessary. Despite rising costs, Vaz stressed that Jamaica’s fuel supply remains secure.
• Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran–U.S. conflict and the effective disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz in early March, the global oil market outlook has shifted abruptly from expectations of surplus conditions to what is now widely viewed as one of the most significant supply shocks in recent history. This is being transmitted to domestic fuel prices and is emerging as a key near-term upside risk to consumer prices via the Transport Division, given its high sensitivity to energy costs.
• Furthermore, with the economy already subdued, any additional movement restrictions could further dampen economic activity, particularly by constraining key sectors such as tourism, retail, and informal trade that are vital to day-to-day commercial flows

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly & NCBCM Research)

• For the quarter ended February 28, 2026, AMG Packaging & Paper Company Limited (AMG) earnings were reduced by 81.5% to $3.47Bn as revenues fell sharply.
• Revenues declined 23.1% year-over-year to $190.84Mn. The decline largely reflected increased equipment downtime from mechanical issues, along with lost production time tied to the installation and commissioning of the Glue Station and Single Facer on the corrugator, constraints that ultimately hindered the company’s ability to fulfil customer orders.
• The glue station and single facer on the corrugator are key components in corrugated board production, where the single facer forms the fluted medium by shaping the paper into corrugations and bonding it to one liner, while the glue station applies the adhesive that ensures proper adhesion between the fluted medium and linerboard
• On the expense side, manufacturing costs fell by 22.8% to $130.55Mn, mirroring the decline in production volumes. However, it was insufficient to prevent a 24.0% gross profit decline to $60.29Mn. Meanwhile, operating expenses, including administrative costs and depreciation, edged down by 2.4%, offering only modest relief amid the operational challenges. Consequently, operating profits were down 88.7% to $2.23Mn.
• The Q2 decline contributed to a 67.2% decline in its 6-month earnings to $14.30Mn, following a weaker Q1 performance due to the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which resulted in reduced production days.
• Looking ahead, the company is positioning to realise the benefits of its upgraded corrugator line, which should streamline production processes and drive greater operational efficiency, ultimately supporting earnings growth. In addition, given AMG’s core focus on industrial packaging, continued expansion in packaging for the consumer staples sector is expected to translate into stronger packaging demand, auguring well for AMG’s performance.
• AMG’s stock price has decreased by 17.6% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Wednesday’s trading session at $1.82 and currently trades at a P/E of 14.0x, which is below the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector Average of 25.2x.

(Source: JSE& NCBCM research)

• The Bahamian Ministry of Finance (MOF), in its second quarter (Q2) fiscal performance report, said revenue expanded by $54.4Mn compared to the same period last year. The government’s overall fiscal performance for the second quarter of FY2025/26 benefited from an improvement in revenue performance, when compared with the comparative period in the prior year.
• Tax revenue expanded, year-over-year, by 4.2% to $1,345.9Mn, for 39.1% of the budget. Improved economic conditions, alongside strengthened tax administration measures, supported gains in value-added tax collections ($76.1Mn), taxes on use and permission to use goods ($4.5Mn), and specific gaming taxes ($1.3Mn). In a significant offset, taxes on international trade and transactions declined by $18.4Mn. Non-tax revenue also grew by $11.4Mn (7.6%) to $160.7Mn, largely reflecting a $14.4Mn upturn in receipts from the sale of goods and services.
• That said, aggregate expenditure increased by $41.3Mn (2.3%) to $1,850.0Mn (48.4% of the budget), with the recurrent and capital components at $1,658.3Mn and $191.7Mn, respectively. Higher spending for compensation of employees ($21.0Mn), other payments ($19.9Mn) and subsidies ($10.2Mn) were the primary drivers of the rise in recurrent expenditure. Nevertheless, capital expenditure decreased modestly by $0.9Mn (0.5%) to $191.7Mn, 51.0% of the budget. Higher capital transfers of $5.8Mn (22.3%) were offset by a $6.7Mn (4.0%) decrease in outlays for acquisition of non-financial assets.
• As a result of these developments, the fiscal deficit for Q2 narrowed by 6.9% to $342.4Mn, equivalent to an estimated 2.1% of gross domestic product (GDP). Consequently, the government’s overall fiscal position for January 2026 shifted to an estimated surplus of $4.3Mn from a $3.1Mn deficit in the prior year. Financing activities for the month featured an estimated decrease in the outstanding debt stock by $17.7Mn.
• The government of the Bahamas’ economic agenda centres on gradual fiscal consolidation, energy sector reform and supply-side improvements to alleviate capacity constraints in the tourism sector. The near-term fiscal strategy is built around three pillars: continued expenditure discipline, revenue enhancement through existing tax administration improvements and the collection of new revenues from the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT)¹. It has the medium-term goal of reducing public debt to 50% of GDP by FY2030/31.
• With this in mind, the Bahamas’ fiscal deficit is expected to remain at less than 1% of GDP over the coming years. Central government debt will also continue its gradual decline from a peak of around 91% of GDP in FY2020/21, reaching an estimated 70.7% in 2026 and 63.0% by 2030.

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¹The DMTT, enacted in November 2024 under the OECD’s Pillar Two framework, applies a 15% minimum effective tax rate to large multinational enterprise groups and is expected to yield approximately 0.7% of GDP from FY2025/26. Collection of this revenue is a fiscal priority, and the government is working to secure transitional ‘qualified’ status with the OECD Inclusive Framework to protect its implementation.

(Sources: The Nassau Guardian & BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Trump administration issued two new Venezuela-related general licenses on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, including one that allows financial transactions involving certain Venezuelan banks and Venezuelan government individuals, according to documents posted to the United States (U.S). Treasury Department's website.
• The documents published by the Treasury Department said financial transactions will be permitted for Venezuela's central bank, which was sanctioned in April 2019, as well as for the state-owned banks Venezuela, Tesoro, and Digital de los Trabajadores.
• For nearly a decade, the country's central ⁠ bank and its state-owned banks have faced restrictions on conducting financial transactions abroad due to a lack of correspondent banks to facilitate them, a situation that worsened after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela in 2019.
• The easing of sanctions on the central bank and state-owned banks comes as a new dollar supply system is being implemented, driven by increased crude oil sales following the U.S. seizure of President Nicolas Maduro's assets in January. Washington is seeking to stabilise the Venezuelan economy and open it up to U.S. investment.
• The U.S. Treasury Department also issued a license authorising commercial contract negotiations. The execution of such contracts would have to be “subject to separate authorisation from the Office of Foreign ⁠ Assets Control,” the Treasury document said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Trinidad’s ongoing row with its Caribbean neighbours over U.S. policy toward international drug trafficking and Venezuela boiled over into a full-scale verbal exchange recently, with the prime minister demanding the exit of CARICOM’s secretary-general after her term ends in August.
• Regional tensions among members of CARICOM, a 15-member regional trade bloc, spiked late last year when governments denounced U.S. military action in the South Caribbean and the build-up of an unusually large American force near Venezuela intended to capture then-President Nicolás Maduro.
• Regional neighbours previously called for the Caribbean to remain a “zone of peace,” but Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar dismissed the label as “zone of peace fakery,” throwing her support behind U.S. military strikes and the Trump administration’s broader campaign against international drug trafficking and organised crime.
• She has now turned her focus to CARICOM’s general operations, demanding that Secretary-General Carla Barnett step down once her five-year term concludes in late August. Since winning Trinidad’s general election one year ago, the prime minister has used her platform to push for Barnett’s removal, reminding leaders that Trinidad pays around 22% of CARICOM’s annual budget, around $20Mn.
• Persad-Bissessar has repeatedly expressed her administration’s deep dissatisfaction with the bloc’s current operations, saying she remains puzzled as to why the region aligned with Venezuela and Maduro rather than supporting the U.S. position. “Caricom has chosen to support the Maduro narco-government through the fake zone of peace narrative,” she said in a statement in late 2025 as the U.S. was preparing for action against Maduro and as governments complained about the alleged illegality of the deadly boat strikes.

(Source: The Associated Press)

• The Iran war has damaged as much as US$58.0Bn worth of energy infrastructure, according to an estimate published by consulting firm Rystad Energy on Wednesday.
• Iran has attacked the oil and gas infrastructure of its Gulf Arab neighbors, including production facilities, refineries and pipelines, among other targets. Israel has bombed natural gas and petrochemical facilities in Iran.
• More than 80 energy facilities have been attacked in all since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency. More than a third of those are severely damaged, Birol said. “This is one of the most critical issues and different than the past, many of the facilities are badly damaged,” the IEA chief said Monday at an Atlantic Council event in Washington. It could take as long as two years to repair facilities and restore oil and gas production to prewar levels, he said.
• At a minimum, the repair bill for the damage is at least US$34.0Bn, Rystad estimated. The extent of the damage is still not clear at some facilities, the firm said. The final bill will depend on whether the damage to those assets is more limited or structural. At the same time, the amount of equipment needed for the repair work will stress global energy supply chains, said Karan Satwani, a senior analyst for supply chain research at Rystad.
• Iran’s infrastructure has absorbed the biggest hit, with repair costs potentially coming in at US$19.0Bn, Rystad estimates. Qatar also faces steep costs after Iran struck its key liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility.
• Attacks on energy facilities escalated after Israel bombed Iran’s South Pars natural gas complex on March 18. Iran retaliated by attacking the world’s largest LNG facility, in Qatar, damaging two production lines responsible for 17.0% of the small Gulf state’s gas exports.
• The damage to Qatar’s LNG facility will result in US$20.0Bn of lost revenue and will take as long as five years to repair, state-owned QatarEnergy said in a March 19 statement. Iran has also attacked pipelines, refineries and production facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

(Source: CNBC)

• U.S. import prices rose 0.8% in March, below expectations for a 2.0% rise, though economists expect the full impact of the oil price surge from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show in April's data.
• It was stated that this most likely reflects ‌timing differences between when the oil that entered U.S. ports was shipped and the spot price of oil. Moreover, the average crude oil price arriving in the United States in March was up 7.8% compared to Brent price, which was up by 45.5%. Therefore, the bulk of the March oil price increase has yet to show up in this report.
• In the 12 months through March, import prices shot ​up 2.1%. That was the largest year-on-year rise since December 2024, and followed a 1.0% increase in February. "Whether it is higher shipping costs from supply disruptions or foreign manufacturers no longer offsetting the tariffs with their own ​product price cuts, import price inflation is on its way up, and then adding insult to injury, once the ships dock here, the imported goods are hit with the tariffs," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The consumer is losing, and will continue to lose."
• Core PCE inflation was estimated to have advanced 3.2% in the 12 months through March, which would be the largest gain in two years, with the Federal Reserve tracking PCE price indexes for its 2% inflation target.
• Financial markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate cut this year, while minutes of the Fed's March 17-18 meeting showed a growing group of policymakers felt that rate hikes might be needed.

(Source: Reuters)

• S. import prices rose 0.8% in March, below expectations for a 2.0% rise, though economists expect the full impact of the oil price surge from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show in April's data.
• It was stated that this most likely reflects ‌timing differences between when the oil that entered U.S. ports was shipped and the spot price of oil. Moreover, the average crude oil price arriving in the United States in March was up 7.8% compared to Brent price, which was up by 45.5%. Therefore, the bulk of the March oil price increase has yet to show up in this report.
• In the 12 months through March, import prices shot ​up 2.1%. That was the largest year-on-year rise since December 2024, and followed a 1.0% increase in February. "Whether it is higher shipping costs from supply disruptions or foreign manufacturers no longer offsetting the tariffs with their own ​product price cuts, import price inflation is on its way up, and then adding insult to injury, once the ships dock here, the imported goods are hit with the tariffs," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The consumer is losing, and will continue to lose."
• Core PCE inflation was estimated to have advanced 3.2% in the 12 months through March, which would be the largest gain in two years, with the Federal Reserve tracking PCE price indexes for its 2% inflation target.
• Financial markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate cut this year, while minutes of the Fed's March 17-18 meeting showed a growing group of policymakers felt that rate hikes might be needed.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaica Broilers Group Limited (JBG) has advised that it has entered into an agreement to sell assets of the Best Dressed Chicken Processing Plant located in South Carolina, USA.
• These assets were previously purchased in September 2019 from Gentry’s Poultry Company, Inc. and were held through the Company’s subsidiary, The Best Dressed Chicken, Inc.
• This asset sale transaction follows a strategic review of the Company’s U.S. Operations in light of sustained operational challenges and market conditions (including weak selling prices for U.S. Poultry) that have impacted performance in the broiler meat segment.
• These challenges played a role in the group’s $2.22Bn loss for the quarter ended January 31, 2026 (Q3 2026), alongside disruptions from Hurricane Melissa. Management highlighted in January that its Jamaica Operations post-Melissa was recovering ahead of schedule. Following the divestment of its South Carolina processing plant, JBG’s US footprint will centre on its fertile egg production and logistics hubs. This includes International Poultry Breeders (IPB), with hatcheries across Georgia, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania, and Wincorp International, which manages procurement and logistics. To stabilise these remaining core assets, the Group is actively restructuring leadership, tightening financial controls, and transitioning to specialised sector auditors.
• JBG's stock price has decreased by 13.1% since the start of the year to close at $14.87 on Tuesday, April 14, 2026.

(Source: JSE& NCBCM research)

• The blowback from Hurricane Melissa continues, knocking Knutsford Express Limited’s (KEX’s) performance off route and leaving Express Catering Limited (ECL) with slimmer servings. For their third quarter ending February 28, 2026 (Q3 2026), their earnings fell 68.4% and 63.3%, respectively, relative to Q3 2025.
• Unsurprisingly, the common driver of the decline in earnings was weaker revenues, given that both companies rely on tourist arrivals, particularly ECL, which operates several restaurants at Sangster’s International Airport.
• ECL’s revenues declined by 48.5% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 39.7% drop in passengers accessing the post-security departure lounge at Sangster International Airport. This reflects the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa, which reduced accommodation capacity across Montego Bay and surrounding resort areas after several properties sustained damage, limiting available room stock.
• In line with the sharp decline in revenues, ECL’s cost of sales fell by 53.2%, but was insufficient to prevent a 46.9% drop in gross profit. Similarly, operating expenses declined by 31.7%, which was accompanied by $0.45Mn in finance income.
• Meanwhile, KEX’s revenues declined by a more modest 8.2%, as the company was able to partially offset losses in affected areas through its diversified route network. Operating expenses were flat (-0.9%) and resulted in a 60.3% decline in operating profit relative to Q3 2025.
• Notably, KEX and ECL’s weaker Q3 reflected wider year-to-date declines, with their 9-month earnings down 53.7% and 49.6%, respectively.
• Looking ahead, ECL and KEX should see gradual improvement in earnings over the next few quarters, as the tourism sector recovers from the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa. Tourism recovery would translate to a meaningful rebound in passenger and traffic flows through Sangster’s, which would be accretive to both companies’ performance.
• KEX also expanded its fleet of coaches, positioning itself to capture the expected uplift in demand while enhancing operational efficiency and reducing downtime. However, it will need to share this demand with competitors, particularly the government-owned JUTC, which has launched its Rural Express offering, providing coach services at significantly lower prices on some of KEX’s key routes.
• KEX’s stock price has decreased by 28.7% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $8.18 and currently trades at a P/E of 28.2x, which is above the Junior Market Other Sector Average of 25.8x. Over the same period, ECL lost 1.7% of its share price to close at $2.44. At this price, it trades at a P/E of 11.4x, which is below the Junior Market Other Sector Average of 25.8x.

(Sources: JSE& NCBCM research)