• Emerging market (EM) macroeconomic and credit conditions have been resilient this year, and Moody’s expects that they will remain so in 2026. Several interrelated, sometimes unpredictable, developments will influence these conditions, with the potential for pockets of stress.
• Firstly, geopolitical and policy shifts ripple across EMs. EM governments are focusing on their domestic priorities and also on bolstering cross-border relationships as they seek to navigate tariffs, U.S.-China tensions and other geopolitical stresses. Elections in several EMs bring the potential for policy change, and societal opposition to new and existing policies will continue pushing some EM governments to prioritise social stability over long-term reforms.
• Secondly, U.S. policy rate cuts, increased investor risk appetite and a weaker US dollar, along with interest in diversifying away from the U.S., will continue to spur capital inflows to EMs. This will further the growth of local currency bond markets, which have expanded rapidly over the past decade. Uncertainty in the lead-up to domestic elections and unexpected policy shifts within countries may, however, dampen investor appetite, particularly for debt from entities with relatively weak credit quality.
• Thirdly, technological advances are likely to exacerbate differences between EMs and advanced economies, and across EMs. Early adopters will benefit as innovation and efficiency boost productivity, investment and corporate earnings, and ultimately support economic growth. But new technology ventures also bring execution, cyber and social risks. Data centre growth will continue in response to Artificial Intelligence and cloud computing demand.
• That said, EMs tend to be more exposed to extreme weather events than advanced economies but have fewer resources for adaptation and resilience. Investment is far below what is needed, given competing priorities and financing hurdles. Nearly half of EM sovereigns have high or very high credit exposure to physical climate risks such as floods and hurricanes, but relatively weak fiscal strength, limiting their ability to address these risks.

(Source: Moody’s Ratings)

• Jamaica’s deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) have shown steady and sustained recovery following Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall on October 28, 2025, according to a release from the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) on January 7, 2026.
• As of December 30, 2025, 150 of 164 DTI branches across the island were operational, representing a 91.5% national recovery rate, up from 75.6% immediately post-Melissa. This improvement reflects coordinated restoration efforts among financial institutions, regulators, and utility providers.
• In the immediate aftermath of Melissa, several parishes experienced significant operational disruptions, with branch recovery falling as low as 25% in Trelawny, 33.3% in Westmoreland and Hanover, and 40.0% in St. Elizabeth. However, recovery accelerated from mid-November onward, with the DTI recovery percentage surpassing 85% by November 18th and continuing to improve steadily through December.
• Several parishes, namely, Kingston, Manchester, Portland, St. Andrew, St. James, St. Mary, and Trelawny, achieved or maintained near-full (95–100%) branch recovery relatively early in the post-storm period. Kingston and St. Andrew, the country’s financial hub, having a total of 53 DTI branches, maintained 100% and 91.2% operational status, respectively, shortly after the storm and remained stable through year-end, reflecting minimal disruption to branch operations following Hurricane Melissa. Westmoreland and St. Elizabeth also recorded notable improvements, recovering from 33.3% and 40.0% post-Melissa to 77.8% and 80.0%, respectively, by the end of December.
• While most parishes showed strong recovery, St Thomas, Hanover and Clarendon continue to lag behind the average recovery, ending December at 66.7%, 66.7%, and 75.0% recovery, respectively. These slower rebounds likely reflect ongoing infrastructure challenges and extensive damage at some locations that will take longer times to rebuild, particularly in parts of western Jamaica.
• Overall, BOJ’s data release alludes to the resilience of Jamaica’s financial sector, which rebounded steadily after Hurricane Melissa, restoring critical banking operations, supporting economic stability, and ensuring continued public access to financial services across the majority of the island.

(Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• The Limners and Bards Limited (LAB), General Accident Insurance Company Jamaica Limited (GENAC), and Eppley Caribbean Property Fund Limited (CPFV) are ringing in the new year with dividend declarations
• LAB’s Board of Directors approved an interim dividend of $0.0127 and a special dividend of $0.005 per share during their December 30, 2025, meeting. These payments will be issued on January 30, 2026, to shareholders on record as of January 16, 2026. The company’s last dividend distribution was recorded in October 2024 at $0.0447 per share.
• Likewise, GENAC declared a dividend of $0.07758 per share on January 2, 2026, with payment set for January 26, 2026, to shareholders on record as of January 16, 2026. GENAC’s last payout was made on December 16, 2024, valued at $0.2182 per share.
• CPFV was also among the companies announcing dividends, as it declared a final dividend of Bds$0.00445 or approximately J$0.35 per share on December 31, 2025. CPFV shareholders on record as of January 19, 2026, will receive payment on March 27, 2026. CPFV has been a frequent dividend payer, rewarding shareholders 5 times last year, totalling BB$0.0424 or approximately J$3.33 per share (+29.7% YoY) and striking a dividend yield of approximately 7%.
• The company has a dividend policy providing for an annual dividend of between 75% and 100% of Funds from Operations (“FFO”) after taxes.
• With the impact of Hurricane Melissa likely to weigh on stock prices in 2026, dividends will likely continue to be a critical source of returns for investors.
• At the close of the market on January 7th, LAB, GENAC and CPFV closed at $6.20, $1.04 and $47.02, respectively. At these prices, LAB has a P/E of 26.0x, above the industry average of 24.50x. Genac trades at a P/B of 1.6x, below the industry average of 1.2x. CPFV trades at a P/B of 0.6x, which is also above its industry average of 0.5x.

(Source: JSE data, NCBCM Research)

• The US plans to control sales of 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan oil “indefinitely,” placing proceeds into US-controlled accounts to maintain leverage over the Maduro government, though the share Venezuela will receive remains unclear.
• Officials say sanctions will be “selectively” rolled back to allow flows, while the White House coordinates with banks and commodity firms to market the crude; revenue is intended to support economic stabilisation “for the Venezuelan people,” according to US officials.
• Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA said negotiations continue under existing bilateral frameworks, disputing suggestions of a finalised deal, even as President Trump publicly claimed Venezuela would be “turning over” oil for US-managed sale.
• The initiative has sparked strong criticism from Democratic lawmakers, who argue it amounts to coercive appropriation of Venezuelan oil, while China condemned US actions and broader efforts to assert control over Venezuela’s energy resources.
• Analysts note potential near-term benefits for US refiners and Chevron (which still operates in Venezuela), though the diversion of Venezuelan crude could pressure suppliers like Mexico and Canada that produce similar heavy grades.
• While oil prices have softened on expectations of incremental Venezuelan supply, experts warn that materially boosting output will require years and billions in investment, with companies wary given political risk and more attractive opportunities elsewhere.

(Source: BBC News)

• The United States has added Venezuela and Cuba to a visa bond program that requires citizens of certain countries to post financial guarantees of up to $15,000 in order to apply for B1 (business) and B2 (tourism) visas, according to the U.S. State Department.
• The measure will take effect on January 21 and expands the list of affected nations to 38 countries, most of them in Africa, along with several in Latin America and Asia. Newly added countries include Algeria, Angola, Gabon, Nepal, Senegal, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Venezuela, and Cuba, among others.
• Under the new rules, applicants who qualify to request a B1 or B2 visa must deposit a bond of $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000, an amount determined during the consular interview. The State Department clarified that paying the bond does not guarantee visa approval, and warned that payments made without proper consular authorisation will not be refunded.
• As part of the program’s conditions, travellers who post a bond must enter and exit the United States through designated airports, including Washington Dulles International Airport, New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport, or Boston Logan International Airport. Failure to comply with these requirements could result in denial of entry or problems recording the traveller’s departure.
• S. authorities have not provided an official explanation for the inclusion of Venezuela and Cuba, nor clarified whether the decision is linked to recent political developments, including the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who was detained in Caracas on January 3 and later transferred to New York, where he faces charges including narcoterrorism and drug trafficking conspiracy.
• Following Maduro’s capture, President Donald Trump stated that Cuba had long depended on Venezuela for survival and suggested the island could now face severe economic consequences. However, the U.S. government has emphasised that the expanded visa bond requirement is part of broader immigration enforcement efforts and has not justified the inclusion of any specific country.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Warner Bros. Discovery's board again rejected a takeover bid from Paramount and told shareholders to stick with a rival offer from Netflix. In a letter to shareholders, Warner Bros' board noted that Paramount's revised $108.4Bn US hostile bid amounted to a risky leveraged buyout that investors should reject.
• The company's board noted Paramount's offer hinges on "an extraordinary amount of debt financing" that heightens the risk of closing. It reaffirmed its commitment to streaming giant Netflix's $82.7Bn deal for the film and television studio and other assets. "Our binding agreement with Netflix will offer superior value at greater levels of certainty, without the significant risks and costs that Paramount's offer would impose on our shareholders," Warner Bros. Discovery chair Samuel Di Piazza Jr. highlighted in a statement.
• Paramount and Netflix have been vying to win control of Warner Bros., and with it, its prized film and television studios and extensive content library. Its lucrative entertainment franchises include Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, Friends and the DC Comics universe, as well as coveted classic films such as Casablanca and Citizen Kane.
• Warner's leadership has repeatedly rebuffed Paramount's bids and urged shareholders to instead back its sale of the streaming and studio business to Netflix. Late last month, Paramount announced an "irrevocable personal guarantee" from Oracle founder Larry Ellison, the father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, to back $40.4Bn in equity financing for the company's offer. Paramount also increased its promised payout to shareholders to $5.8Bn if the deal is blocked by regulators, matching what Netflix already put on the table.
• Paramount's financing plan would saddle the smaller Hollywood studio with $87 billion in debt once the acquisition closed, making it the largest leveraged buyout in history, the Warner Bros board told shareholders after voting against the $30-per-share cash offer.
• The letter accompanied a 67-page amended merger filing, where it laid out its case for rejecting Paramount's offer. In it, the Warner Bros. board said it met on Dec. 23 to review Paramount's amended offer and noted some improvements, including Ellison's personal guarantee and a higher reverse termination fee of $5.8 billion US, but it found "significant costs" associated with Paramount's bid compared with a Netflix deal.
• Netflix co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters welcomed Warner Bros.' decision on Wednesday, saying it recognises the streaming giant's deal "as the superior proposal that will deliver the greatest value to its stockholders, as well as consumers, creators and the broader entertainment industry."

(Source: Reuters)

• Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, said on Wednesday he would meet leaders of Denmark next week but signalled no retreat from President Donald Trump's aim to take over Greenland as alarmed allies, including France and Germany, were working on a response.
• A weekend U.S. military operation that seized the leader of Venezuela rekindled concerns about U.S. intentions toward Greenland, and U.S. officials have done little to allay fears.
• Rubio told reporters that Trump retained the option to address his objective by military means. Still, "as a diplomat, which is what I am now, and what we work on, we always prefer to settle it in different ways - that included in Venezuela," he said when asked if the U.S. was willing to potentially endanger the U.S.-led NATO military alliance with a forcible takeover of Greenland.
• A U.S. military seizure of the mineral-rich Arctic island from Denmark, a long-time ally, would send shock waves through NATO and deepen the divide between Trump and European leaders. It has prompted pushback in the U.S. Congress, with Democratic and Republican U.S. senators saying on Wednesday they expected the Senate would eventually vote on legislation seeking to rein in Trump's ability to attempt to seize Greenland.
• Greenland is strategically located between Europe and North America, making it a critical site for the U.S. ballistic missile defence system for decades. Its mineral wealth also aligns with Washington's ambition to reduce reliance on China. Trump first voiced the idea of gaining control of Greenland in 2019, during his first presidency.
• He argues that it is key for U.S. military strategy and that Denmark has not done enough to protect it, although two treaties already give the U.S. military nearly unlimited access to the island, one signed with Denmark in 1951 and the other in 2023.
• The White House said on Tuesday that Trump was discussing options for acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the U.S. military despite European objections. Others in the administration have said different approaches were possible. Rubio said during a classified briefing late on Monday for congressional leaders, the goal was to buy the island, two sources familiar with the briefing said.

(Source: Reuters)

• According to data shared by the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), the stock of Jamaican currency rose to J$322.3Bn in 2025, up 12.7%, relative to an annual growth of 3.1% at the end of December 2024.
• The annual jump reflects the impacts of Hurricane Melissa on precautionary cash demand, increased remittance receipts and an uptick in inflation. A post-Beryl economic rebound up to September 2025 also contributed to higher levels of the currency stock. Most notably, the stock increased for December, particularly the last five workdays (23rd to 31st), when the net amount issued by BOJ increased by J$13.1Bn.
• When adjusted for inflation, the real value of the JMD stock is estimated to have grown by 7.1% annually, compared to a 1.8% decline in 2024.
• The BOJ issues and redeems notes and coins daily in order to meet the demand for cash from individuals and businesses. There is normally a stronger demand for currency during the month of December, associated with increased spending over the holiday period.
• However, notwithstanding the increase, the BOJ anticipates that the majority of the currency issued during December 2025 will be redeemed during January 2026. For the last five years, net currency redemption in January averaged 68.8% of the net currency issued in the preceding month. This suggests limited lasting inflationary or liquidity impact from the December cash expansion.
• Looking ahead, broad money¹ is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.8% over the next eight quarters, slightly below the previous projection of 8.2%. The projected growth in broad money reflects moderations in currency in circulation and local currency deposits, reflective of the anticipated moderations in economic activity over the next eight quarters following Hurricane Melissa.

_________________________

¹Broad money, as tracked by the BOJ, is a comprehensive measure of the money supply in Jamaica, including highly liquid "narrow money" (cash and checking accounts) plus less liquid assets like savings deposits, fixed deposits (time deposits), and foreign currency deposits that can be easily converted to cash, giving a fuller picture of total money available for spending and investment in the economy.

(Source: BOJ)

• On January 6, 2026, Mark Myers, Director of Cornerstone Financial Holdings Limited (Cornerstone) and Chairman of Barita Investments Limited (Barita), announced in a press release on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) that Barita has received regulatory approval regarding its proposed acquisition of 100% of the issued share capital of JN Fund Managers Limited (JNFM).
• JNFM, founded in 1996, is a full-service investment banking and asset management firm owned by the Jamaica National Group, one of the largest and oldest mutually owned financial services groups in the Caribbean. Upon completion, the transaction is expected to increase Barita’s assets under management to over J$500Bn, as JNFM is integrated into Barita’s operating platform, while enhancing product diversity, efficiency and customer service for clients of the combined entity.
• The acquisition further diversifies Barita’s business model through meaningfully broadening its customer base and enhancing its institutional asset management and, therefore, fee income-generating capabilities, particularly in pension fund management and long-term mandates.

(Source: JSE)

• Guyana’s Minister of Natural Resources, Vickram Bharrat, has assured that offshore oil and gas exploration activities continue without a hitch. The assurance comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the region following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. military forces over the weekend. 
• Bharrat confirmed on January 4 that there is “no disruption” to ExxonMobil’s operations in the Stabroek Block.  Authorities are closely monitoring developments to safeguard Guyana’s energy sector and national interests.
• On Monday, January 5, Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, entered not guilty pleas to several charges in their first court appearance in New York after being captured in a US military operation on January 3.
• The Venezuelan leader and his wife were flown out of the country as part of a “large-scale U.S. strike”, President Donald Trump reported on the Truth Social network last weekend. The developments triggered security responses across the region, particularly in Guyana. Back in March 2025, Guyana deployed air assets and mobilised its Coast Guard in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) after a Venezuelan navy ship entered the area. The country has been on high alert since then. 
• In an address to the nation on December 3, Guyana’s Commander-in-Chief, President Dr Irfaan Ali, assured Guyanese that the country’s security mechanisms are fully mobilised and the government is closely monitoring developments in the Spanish-speaking nation. 
• Guyana and Venezuela are currently embroiled in a territorial controversy with an ongoing case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The case centres on the 1899 Arbitral Award, which legally determined the boundary between the two countries. Venezuela, after accepting the boundary for decades, declared the award null and void in 1962 and has since claimed over two-thirds of Guyana’s territory in the Essequibo region. 

(Source: OIL Now)