• Russia's overheating economy is on the cusp of serious cooling, as huge fiscal stimulus, soaring interest rates, stubbornly high inflation, and Western sanctions take their toll, but after three years of war, Washington may just have thrown Moscow a lifeline.
• U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for a quick deal to end the war in Ukraine, alarming Washington's European allies by leaving them and Ukraine out of initial talks with Russia and blaming Ukraine for Russia's 2022 invasion, political gifts for Moscow that could also bring strong economic benefits.
• Washington's push comes as Moscow faces two undesirable options, according to Oleg Vyugin, former deputy chairman of Russia's central bank. Russia can either stop inflating military spending as it presses to gain territory in Ukraine, or maintain it and pay the price with years of slow growth, high inflation and falling living standards, all of which carry political risks.
• Though government spending usually stimulates growth, non-regenerative spending on missiles at the expense of civilian sectors has caused overheating to the extent that interest rates at 21% are slowing corporate investment and inflation cannot be tamed. "For economic reasons, Russia is interested in negotiating a diplomatic end to the conflict," Vyugin said. "This will avoid further increasing the redistribution of limited resources for unproductive purposes. It's the only way to avoid stagflation."
• While Russia is unlikely to swiftly reduce defence spending, which accounts for about a third of all budget expenditure, the prospect of a deal should ease other economic pressures, could bring sanctions relief and eventually the return of Western firms.

(Source: Reuters)

• Canada's retail sales grew by a robust 2.5% on a monthly basis in December, beating analysts' expectations, as a sales tax holiday bumped up spending on food and beverages. People also bought cars and vehicle parts, data showed last Friday.
• Retail sales are considered an early indicator of GDP growth and contribute almost 40.0% to total consumer spending, which was primarily responsible for keeping Canada's economy growing in the third quarter. Economists said the government's sales tax break, which kicked off in mid-December and ended February 15, also boosted revenues.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would rise by 1.6% on a month-on-month basis and by 1.8% excluding automotive and parts sales. Retail sales jumped by 2.5% even after sales of automotive parts and at dealerships were excluded, Statistics Canada said.
• "Even if the momentum of retail sales fades into the new year, these figures add to the argument for the Bank of Canada to pause at next month's meeting," Shelly Kaushik, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.
• Currency swap markets now see a more than 68.0% chance of no rate cut on March 12, although economists have said expectations for the trajectory of interest rates could change if U.S. President Donald Trump slaps a 25% tariff on Canadian imports in March.

(Source: Reuters)

• At its meetings on February 18 and 19 2025, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously agreed to hold the policy rate at 6.00%. The decision was influenced by upside inflation risks from the external environment and potential adverse weather conditions. This rate action comes after the Central Bank cut rates by a total of 100 basis points between August 2024 and December 2024.
• The maintenance of the policy rate was supported by the MPC’s belief that the current policy rate of 6.0% continued to be appropriate to support inflation remaining within the target range and maintaining relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
• Inflation remains firm within the Bank’s 4.0%-6.0% target range, with January 2025 inflation at 4.7%, down from 7.4% in January 2024. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile inflation components – food and fuel – and is thus a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, amounted to 4.0% in January 2025, remaining consistently below 6.0% since July 2023. Furthermore, the MPC anticipates that headline inflation will remain inside the target over the next 8 quarters, likely supported by lower business inflation expectations, a key driver of headline inflation.
• While the inflation outlook appears balanced, risks are skewed to the upside given the uncertainty related to the potential economic policy changes in the United States which could affect inflation expectations and inflows through the current account of Jamaica’s balance of payments. Worse-than-anticipated weather conditions could also put upward pressure on inflation. That said, the MPC communicated that it would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy if the above-noted risks crystallise and result in an upward deviation from the inflation target.

(Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• After seeing steady gains for the financial year ended September 30, 2024 (FY2024), Salada Foods has witnessed a +63.2% earnings increase for its first quarter ended December 31, 2024 (Q1 2025) relative to Q1 2024, buoyed by the impact of improved distribution efforts which added to revenue growth.
• Salada’s Q1 revenues increased by 32.8% to J$398.19Mn due to heightened demand across both domestic and export markets. This was supported by the Company’s strategic marketing initiatives and distribution expansion efforts.
• In FY2024, Salad successfully secured distribution of its flagship brand, Jamaica Mountain Peak, in Trinidad & Tobago with local distributors Alstons Marketing Company (AMCO) Limited. The Mountain Peak Golden Turmeric Latte quickly became a household favourite, contributing approximately 24% of the value of the portfolio in Trinidad & Tobago. This along with exports to Barbados, St. Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, and other company engagements continued to provide support for revenue growth.
• Direct costs grew in tandem with revenues with cost of sales rising by 30.6%, slightly below revenue growth, which supported a 37.6% gross profit increase to J$126.22Mn.
• Meanwhile, operating costs rose 15.7%, which supported a 68.3% increase in operating profits to J$65.74Mn compared to 5.5% to $37.87Mn for Q1 2024. This improvement reflects disciplined cost management and improved operational efficiencies due to ongoing plant modernization efforts.
• The company also saw a 4.9% uptick in net financing income for Q1 as interest income on funds invested exceeded financing expenses. With the increase in revenues, controlled costs and the uptick in net financing income, Salada’s Q1 total comprehensive income increased by (+63.2%) to J$50.40Mn. 
• At the close of the stock market on February 20, 2025, Salada’s share price stood at $3.26, implying a P/E ratio of 16.40x, which is above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing Average of 14.05x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• In response to the increasing number of real estate scams in the Dominican Republic, Senator Eduard Espiritusanto of La Romana has introduced a bill aimed at regulating and professionalising the sector.
• The proposed law would require real estate brokers and agents to obtain official licenses, complete mandatory training, and adhere to transparency and consumer protection standards. It also establishes a National Registry of Real Estate Intermediaries, supervised by the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, and MSMEs (MICM), which will oversee licensing and penalize fraudulent practices.
• The bill includes strict penalties for unauthorized real estate activities, including fines of up to 50 minimum wages, business suspensions, and criminal charges for fraud or identity theft. A key feature is the introduction of a Geolocation Service for Georeferenced Properties, allowing individuals to verify the legal status, ownership, and location of registered properties in coordination with the Real Estate Jurisdiction.
• Espiritusanto emphasized the urgent need for this law, highlighting the devastating impact of scams on Dominican families, particularly those living abroad. The bill also proposes measures such as mandatory civil liability insurance for brokers, regulation of commission fees, and stricter controls on real estate advertising to prevent misleading promotions. The senator believes these reforms will create a safer, more trustworthy real estate market that protects buyers and enhances the country’s reputation.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• A U.S. flight carrying 135 deportees, half of them minors, from various countries was set to land Thursday in Costa Rica, making it the second Latin American nation to serve as a stopover for migrants as U.S. President Donald Trump‘s administration steps up deportations.
• Upon arrival, the migrants will be bused from Costa Rica’s capital to a rural holding facility near the Panama border, where they will wait up to 30 days to be flown back to their countries of origin, said Omer Badilla, Costa Rica’s deputy minister of the interior and police. The U.S. government will cover the costs.
• The arrangement is part of a deal the Trump administration struck with Costa Rica during U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit earlier this month. Similar agreements have been reached with other Latin American nations, but the concept of using third countries as deportation layovers has drawn strong criticism from human rights advocates.
• Beyond the conditions of their detention in Costa Rica, concerns revolve around international protections for asylum seekers and whether these deportees will be appropriately screened before being returned to their countries or sent to yet another country.
• Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves told reporters Wednesday that his country is helping its “economically powerful brother from the north.” It comes as Trump has pressured countries across the region to help facilitate deportations at times under the threat of steep tariffs or sanctions.
• Panama this week became the first such country to accept 299 deportees from other nations, with the government holding them in hotel rooms guarded by police. About one-third of those who refused to voluntarily return to their countries were sent to a remote camp in Darien province bordering Colombia on Wednesday. The rest were awaiting commercial flights back home.

(Source: AP News)

• Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday the U.S. central bank should still be able to lower interest rates by half a percentage point this year, though there remains extensive uncertainty about the impact of President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies. Two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts are "my baseline expectation," Bostic told reporters on a call, but "the uncertainty around that is pretty significant ... There's a lot that could influence that in both directions."
• In an essay released on Thursday, Bostic said he did not think the U.S. is facing a new burst of inflation, though he added that there was "widespread apprehension" among businesses about how new import taxes, immigration rules, and changes to regulations will affect the outlook.
• The Fed held its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its meeting last month and is expected to do so again at its March 18-19 meeting as officials wait for more clarity on how the economy responds to new tariffs and stricter immigration rules. Investors feel recently sticky inflation readings and the risks from tariffs and other policies may only allow the Fed to cut rates once this year.
• Housing inflation is still expected to ease, Bostic said, relieving a major remaining driver of overall price increases. The labour market is showing signs of slack even while sustaining a low unemployment rate of around 4%, and businesses say expected deregulation may ease cost pressures, he wrote.
• Firms are also planning to pass along new import taxes to consumers, he said, and are also worried about the impact stricter immigration rules may have on the availability of labour. Regarding upcoming policy shifts, "we've heard not only enthusiasm - particularly from banks, about possible shifts in tax and regulatory policies - but also widespread apprehension about future trade and immigration policy," Bostic wrote.
• Businesses generally have not reacted to Trump administration plans that remain in flux, but the situation has created "pervasive" uncertainty about the course of the economy this year, Bostic said. That may eventually lead to further interest rate cuts, but for the time being Bostic said monetary policy was "in a good place and the economy is strong ... For various reasons, this is no time for complacency."

Source: (Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan will hike interest rates only once more this year, most likely during the third quarter to 0.75%, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll published on Thursday. The survey also showed analysts' median prediction for the rate of pay increases in wage talks this year is 5%, close to last year's 33-year-high, an encouraging sign for the BOJ to continue raising interest rates.
• It would leave the BOJ as a rare global outlier pushing for higher rates, albeit from a very low level, even as other major central banks cut rates to shore up their economies as concerns mount over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. All 61 economists in the February 12-18 poll expected borrowing costs to remain unchanged in the March 18-19 meeting and only a small minority, 19 of 61, saw at least one 25-basis-point hike to 0.75% next quarter.
• Over 65% of respondents, 38 of 58, predicted a rate hike to 0.75% in July or September. The Japanese swap market is pricing in another 35 basis points of rate hikes through to the end of the year or a 69% chance of two further 25-basis point increases.
• In January the BOJ raised its short-term interest rate to 0.50% from 0.25%, the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis, reflecting its conviction Japan was making progress in sustainably achieving its 2.0% inflation target. A BOJ board member said on Wednesday the central bank must increase borrowing costs more as keeping them at current low levels could cause excessive risk-taking and cause an inflation spike.
• Separately, the median of 28 economists who offered their view on the rate of pay increases at this year's spring labour-management negotiations was 5%, up from 4.75% in a poll last month. It was the first time the poll median touched 5% for wage increases.

(Source: Reuters)

• Wigton Energy Limited (Wigton), formerly known as Wigton Wind Farm, saw its profits decline for the 9 months ending December 31, 2024 (9M 2025), as headwinds to its Q3 2025 performance added to already weak performance for the first 6 months of its financial year.
• Q3 Sales and other income, which constitute total revenues, fell by 16.6% and 56.1% to J$370.38Mn and J$25.42Mn, respectively. However, 9M revenues are still up 3.2%, owing to higher energy production levels up to June 2024 and a business interruption insurance provision of $239.4Mn after Hurricane Beryl.
• Q3 direct costs fell 10.2% over the quarter but it only partially offset the fall in revenues, resulting in a 25.6% gross profit decline to J$138.20Mn. Meanwhile, operating costs rose 26.8% amid higher general administrative expenses. As a result, Wigton had a Q3 operating loss of J$23.22Mn, down from an operating profit of J$96.15Mn in the previous year (Q3 2024).
• However, finance expenses declined for the quarter, down by 16.1% as the Company continues to benefit from the March 2022 restatement of its Bonds, which introduced lower interest rates and quarterly principal payments.
• With the lower revenues and higher operating expenses, the company experienced a net loss of J$81.38Mn for Q3 2025 and when added to its weakened H1 2025 performance resulted in a 9M 2025 net profit of J$228.42Mn (-53.4%year on year).
• Going forward Wigton is looking to achieve sustained profitable growth by diversifying into other renewable energy solutions while improving operational efficiency and seeking solo or partnered investment opportunities. Successful execution will be critical to drive earnings growth and growing shareholder value.
• At the close of the stock market on February 19, 2025, Wigton's share price stood at $1.24, implying a P/E ratio of 20.0x, which is below the average for the Energy, Industrials and Materials (EIM^[1]) industry of 23.66x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

^[1] The EIM industry consists of CCC, MPCCEL, WIG, TJH, KW, and BRG

• News that Controladora Dolphin S.A. de C.V (Dolphin Discovery Group) – the owner of local tourist attraction, Dolphin Cove (DCOVE) and other dolphinariums^[1] – filed for bankruptcy sent DCOVE’s stock on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) diving this week.
• The dolphinariums of Eduardo Albor, who is the president, is said to owe more than US$200Mn in liabilities to funds associated with Prudential Insurance, Cigna Insurance and Life Insurance. According to a report by El Heraldo de Mexico, Gerardo Badín, Mexican Insolvency Conciliator, was appointed as the inspector/conciliador to oversee the bankruptcy proceedings.
• The group of dolphinariums is considered one of the largest in the world. Still, it has been in decline, apparently due to the termination of the contract of the Miami Seaquarium dolphinarium in April 2024 and subsequent eviction proceedings initiated by Miami-Dade County. This followed concerns from the United States Department of Agriculture over the mistreatment of animals and repeated violations of animal welfare by the Miami Seaquarium.
• Following the news, DCOVE’s shares on the JSE sank by 29.1% to $15.18 between Tuesday and Wednesday, wiping out J$1.73Bn (US$10.95Mn) in market capitalisation after the reports emerged about its Parent Company’s filings.
• Under Mexican law, a "debt restructuring" process, also known as a "concurso mercantil," would allow a company like Dolphin Discovery to negotiate with its creditors to extend the repayment period of its debts, allowing it to continue operations while negotiating payment terms with creditors.
• That said, the Dolphin Company has since shared a statement clarifying that Controladora has filed to restructure its financial liabilities under the protection and supervision of a Mexican court specialised in financial debt restructuring. The report expressed that this process is not considered a bankruptcy filing but rather a mechanism provided by Mexican laws to facilitate an agreement with the main creditors, protecting the interests of other suppliers, employees, and customers, as well as the company’s assets for its benefit. The company also expressed that it will define the best strategies to facilitate the fulfilment of its obligations in the medium and long term, while also continuing its development and expansion.

(Sources: Reportur, NBC Miami, NCBCM Research)